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Remembering the 1991 Trade Deadline

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Ah, who can forget 1991? A little start-up network named Comedy Central was born, while the Warsaw Pact was officially dissolved. Youngsters Jeff Bagwell and Chuck Knoblauch, NL and AL Rookie of the Year, respectively, served notice that they'd be forces for years to come. And Cubs' shortstop Starlin Castro celebrated his first birthday.

Meanwhile, the hot stove produced some interesting moments as well. Let's think back to the time we furiously refreshed MLBTradeRumors.com using our 300 baud modems…

  • The Toronto Blue Jays got a jump on the trading season on June 27th by dealing Glenallen Hill, Mark Whiten and Denis Boucher to the Cleveland Indians for Tom Candiotti and Turner Ward. Candiotti had been a hard-luck pitcher with Cleveland- his 2.24 ERA had produced a 7-6 record- but his trade to a contender didn't help, as his 2.98 ERA in Toronto produced a 6-7 record. Just another lesson in the perils of won-loss record. Meanwhile, Hill and Whiten went on to similar careers-both bounced around the major leagues, hitting home runs. And Boucher, a Montreal native, eventually made a triumphant homecoming, pitching to a 1.91 ERA for the 1993 Expos.
  • On July 15th, the New York Mets, still in the race at 49-36, 4.5 games out of first, traded Ron Darling and Mike Thomas to the Expos for Tim Burke in an attempt to shore up their bullpen. Burke certainly did that, pitching 55.2 innings of 2.75 ERA baseball, but it didn't stop the Mets from a freefall that left them at 77-84 for the season. Darling, meanwhile, was a disaster in Montreal, posting a 7.41 ERA in three starts before being shipped just 16 days later to Oakland for Russell Cormier and Matt Grott. Back on American soil, Darling found his rhythm again, pitching to a 4.08 ERA over 75 innings for the Athletics.
  • Oil Can Boyd fared only a bit better than Darling, post-trade, after being dealt from the Expos to the Rangers on July 21 for Joey Eischen, Jonathan Hurst and Travis Buckley. Boyd had a 3.52 ERA in 120.1 innings with Montreal, but collapsed to a 6.68 ERA in what turned out to be the final 62 innings of his major league career for Bobby Valentine's Rangers. Not that Boyd was finished pitching, of course- he had several more seasons in independent league baseball, including a 3.83 ERA stint in 110.1 innings for the 2005 Brockton Rox of the Can-Am League, at age 45.
  • And in an indication of just how much the past 19 years has inflated the cost of deadline-deal closers, the Phillies traded Roger McDowell to the Dodgers for Mike Hartley and Braulio Castillo. Hartley was a veteran middle reliever, while Castillo was a fringe prospect at best. McDowell was just what the Dodgers needed, saving seven games and pitching to a 2.55 ERA in 42.1 innings. The Dodgers, however, finished one game behind Atlanta, meaning that a 93-69 season earned Los Angeles… nothing.

2005 Draft Throwdown

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While dreams are coming true for hundreds of high school and college players this week, let's compare the paths of some 2005 first round draft picks. Nothing is more interesting than seeing how teams did choosing players at the same position. In a draft, it is the closest teams come to the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. Meanwhile, those lists haunt fans' memories for years to come.

  • Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) vs. Ryan Braun (Brewers): This battle between Zimmerman, picked fourth, and Braun, picked fifth, was to be a test of hot corner prowess. But while Zimmerman has excelled at the position, winning a Gold Glove in 2009 and grading well under more advanced defensive metrics, Braun settled in left field after proving to be a disastrous fielder at third base. So far, Braun has a .931 to .836 edge in OPS, but with Zimmerman putting up an .888 in 2009 and at .986 so far in 2010, that gap may well have disappeared. Moving forward, the edge goes to Zimmerman, a terrific hitter, though a notch below Braun, but a far more valuable defensive player. Both teams won here, though.
  • Cameron Maybin (Tigers) vs. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): These high school center fielders went back-to-back, with Maybin going tenth and McCutchen going 11th. The early returns suggest that the Tigers made a poor choice here, though they ultimately packaged Maybin in a deal for Miguel Cabrera, so they're not exactly complaining. McCutchen has hit since he arrived in Pittsburgh last season, and a 23-year-old with an .847 OPS in his first 733 major league plate appearances stands an awfully good chance of being an elite player for years to come. Maybin is still immensely talented, and could turn into a star- but McCutchen already is one. Pirates win- how often do you get to read that?
  • Craig Hansen (Red Sox) vs. Joey Devine (Braves): This throwdown is a lesson in the perils of college pitchers. They seem like sure things, compared to high schoolers, and from the start, the Red Sox and Braves thought they had their ninth-innings mapped out for years to come. Hansen, drafted 26th out of St. John's, has yet to find command at the major league level, with 63 walks against 70 strikeouts in 93.2 innings. The right-hander was one of the moving parts in the three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles. Hansen's troubles were baffling, until the discovery of a degenerative nerve condition that has his career in doubt. Devine, chosen 27th, got traded to Oakland for Mark Kotsay, so Atlanta didn't benefit much from choosing him, either. The Athletics got a fantastic 2008 out of Devine- a 0.59 ERA in 45.2 innings with 49 strikeouts. Tommy John surgery kept him out for 2009, but he is currently on track to return to Oakland by the end of June. Winner here? Clearly, the Athletics.

Remembering the 1995 Trade Deadline

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It was a grand time for the game of baseball. Plenty of critics, in the wake of the 1994 strike, declared baseball dead. Such declarations now stand in the Hall of Wrong, right between those who said that Mark Twain was dead (the first time) and Graydon Carter's claiming the death of irony.

Things were all turned around on the buyers and sellers front, too. The biggest seller? The New York Mets. Big buyers ranged from Cincinnati to Seattle. Indeed, money can't buy everything. So without further ado, on to the precious trade memories…

  • For the low price of Frankie Rodriguez (not to be confused with K-Rod, of course) and a minor leaguer, the Red Sox acquired Rick Aguilera from the Twins on July 6. Aguilera was effective with the Red Sox, pitching to a 2.67 ERA and saving 20 games.
  • A day later, the Orioles responded, trading Kimera Bartee and Scott Klingenbeck to the Twins for Scott Erickson. The pitcher was no longer in ace form, but Erickson won nine games and pitched to a 3.89 ERA with Baltimore.
  • In the category of you win some, you lose some, the Phillies had a pair of roster moves that were noteworthy. On July 10th, the team released Norm Charlton. Mistake! Charlton went to Seattle, and managed a 1.51 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 47.2 dominant innings. However, on July 13th, the Phillies picked up Sid Fernandez, who had been released by the Orioles. El Sid had something left in the tank, to put it mildly, and he pitched to a 3.34 ERA in 11 starts, with 79 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. 
  • The most ambitious trade of this deadline came on July 21 in an eight-player deal. Cincinnati traded Dave McCarty, Ricky Pickett, John Roper, Deion Sanders and Scott Service to San Francisco in exchange for Dave Burba, Darren Lewis and Mark Portugal. The trade worked out quite well for Cincinnati, with both Burba and Portugal pitching to ERAs under 4.00 while in the starting rotation. Lewis played his customary terrific defense, though his .588 OPS didn't overwhelm. But getting two frontline starting pitchers for a meager haul is a pretty sweet deal in any year.
  • Finally, how did the Mets-as-sellers do? Well, Bobby Bonilla, during his best season at age-32, went to Baltimore on July 28 in exchange for Damon Buford and Alex Ochoa, two outfielders who were never able to crack a starting lineup consistently. Three days later, the Mets sent Bret Saberhagen to Colorado for Juan Acevedo and Arnold Gooch. Neither pitcher had much success; Gooch failed to reach the major leagues and Saberhagen pitched to just a 6.28 ERA in 1995, then missed all of 1996 due to injury. In other words: nobody in this trade managed to have nearly the career of a Dave Burba.

2006 Draft Throwdown

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There is little that is more dismaying than looking back at old draft lists, with the benefit of hindsight, and seeing which players your favorite team missed out on while settling for players who either failed to make much of an impact, or who never even reached the major leagues. Think Reggie Jackson and Steve Chilcott, Robin Yount and David Clyde, Dwight Gooden and Bryan Oelkers. Often, this is driven less by player talent, and more by positional need.

But even more fascinating is to look at some recent draft picks and some of their immediate counterparts, to see how teams fared picking players, one over another, who played the same position. In other words, straight-up scouting choices led to these decisions. Let's take a look at how those worked out in 2006.

  • LHP Andrew Miller (Tigers) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): This one is more complicated than it might seem at first. Clearly, Miller, drafted sixth overall, has not been nearly as effective as Kershaw, drafted seventh overall. Miller has a 5.50 ERA in 261 2/3 major league innings, and is currently having trouble throwing strikes in the minor leagues, with an astonishing 30 walks in 28 innings. Kershaw has a 3.28 ERA in 342 major league innings, and shows signs of being a good deal better than that moving forward. But Miller isn't with the Tigers; Detroit dealt him in the move that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. Still, advantage has to go to Kershaw on this one, and the Dodgers as well.
  • RHP Tim Lincecum (Giants) vs. Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks): Is this one about to turn? Obviously, as of this date, Lincecum, drafted tenth, has worked out as well as one could hope any draft pick could, while Scherzer, drafted eleventh, is still a work-in-progress who has already been traded once. But Lincecum has had uncharacteristic struggles with his control lately, even though his season ERA (3.14) and strikeout rate (10.4/9 innings) are not far off of his career marks. And Scherzer is coming off of a 14-strikeout performance, though four walks meant that he did so in just 5 2/3 innings. For now, though, a big edge to Lincecum, the two-time Cy Young Award winner.
  • OF Tyler Colvin (Cubs) vs. Travis Snider (Blue Jays): Based on 2010 season line alone, this battle of the lefty-hitting outfielders would have to go to Colvin, drafted thirteenth, over Snider, drafted fourteenth. After all, Colvin has an OPS of .991 in 83 plate appearances this season, while Snider's stands at .806. But overall, it seems clear that the Blue Jays did better here. Snider came out of high school, while Colvin was a collegiate player. Yet Snider posted significantly better offensive numbers than Colvin as each player climbed their respective system ladders- a .916 to .785 edge in minor league OPS. Snider was holding down a regular job at age 22 before he hit the DL, while Colvin is struggling for a regular spot as his 25th birthday approaches. This one is debatable, but the smart money gives Toronto and Snider the edge.

Remembering the 1990 Trade Deadline

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Ah, 1990. Times were very different then. Ken Griffey Jr. played for the Seattle Mariners. The Simpsons and Saturday Night Live were on the air. And Congress passed a bill in response to an unprecedented oil spill.

But even if that all seems familiar, the trade deadline of 1990 certainly won't. The action came later in the season, with most of the biggest trades actually taking place in August. Let's meet at the corner of Transaction Avenue and Memory Lane…

  • The Boston Red Sox, keen on acquiring a first baseman, grabbed Mike Marshall from the Mets on July 27 for three minor leaguers, headlined by Greg Hansell. Marshall was actually pretty effective for Boston, with a .464 slugging percentage in 117 plate appearances, though he was near the end of his career.
  • An August 3 deal between the Braves and Phillies had hidden implications. The immediate deal? Dale Murphy for Jeff Parrett. Both teams also included players to be named later. Atlanta got Jim Vatcher and Victor Rosario. Philadelphia got Tommy Greene, who posted a 3.66 ERA from 1991-93 and and pitched a no-hitter in 1991.
  • In a Doyle Alexander-for-John Smoltz-like trade, the Pirates acquired Zane Smith from the Expos for Willie Greene, Scott Ruskin and a player to be named later. At first, the deal seemed one-sided, as Smith went 6-2 with a 1.30 ERA for Pittsburgh as the Pirates won the NL East. However, the PTBNL turned out to be… Moises Alou.
  • The Athletics, en route to a World Series appearance, made a pair of interesting moves just before postseason rosters could be set. On August 29, they acquired Harold Baines from the Texas Rangers for Joe Bitker and Scott Chiamparino. The same day, they traded top prospect Felix Jose, Stan Royer and Daryl Green to the Cardinals for Willie McGee. The move froze McGee's National League batting average at .335- he'd go on to win the batting title in absentia. Good thing, too- his .274 mark with Oakland brought his season line down to .324, meaning under today's rules, which combine NL and AL totals, he'd have finished behind Eddie Murray (.330), Dave Magadan (.328) and Lenny Dykstra (.325).
  • And the Houston Astros, on August 31, made a blockbuster move, trading longtime second baseman Bill Doran to the eventual World Champion Cincinnati Reds for Terry McGriff, Keith Kaiser and Butch Henry. Oh, and also, they made a throwaway trade, dealing reliever Larry Andersen to the Boston Red Sox for so-so prospect Jeff Bagwell.

How Do Nationals Match Up For Oswalt?

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The Washington Nationals have made no secret of their interest in Roy Oswalt, and with good reason. The 32-year-old lays waste to the wins statistic, pitching to just a 2-6 record despite a 2.66 ERA, 16 walks and 60 strikeouts in 61 innings. That 8.9 K/9 mark should go a long way toward assuaging teams concerned about taking on the hefty salary Oswalt commands- $15MM this year, $16MM in 2011, and a $16MM 2012 option (with $2MM buyout).

Assuming the Nationals would take on Oswalt's contract and the pitcher is willing to play for them, what would constitute a reasonable haul of young players from Washington?

For Houston's part, they need help, essentially, everywhere. The farm system is pretty sparsely populated, prospect-wise, and the major league club has needs all over. Their 15-29 record is earned honestly; their Pythagorean mark, based on runs scored and runs allowed, is 14-30.

Some major league pieces that could interest Houston include Ian Desmond, who could provide middle infield help for the Astros, and Tyler Clippard, whose value might never be higher after a strong start (and with Houston GM Ed Wade a longtime lover of bullpen pieces).

But the deal would almost certainly have to revolve around minor league pieces. Houston would be right to ask for Drew Storen or Derek Norris as a centerpiece, though both are extremely prized by Washington, and the latter plays the same position as Houston's best prospect, Jason Castro. The smart money is probably on a deal centered around pitcher Brad Meyers, whose tremendous results at Double-A this year- 27 strikeouts, four walks in 22 2/3 innings, 0.79 ERA- are only tempered by questions about how his stuff will translate at higher levels.

Other pieces that could draw Houston's interest include 2006 first rounder Chris Marrero as a possible replacement for Lance Berkman at first base (though his Double-A numbers are underwhelming so far), and Danny Espinosa, whose strong play and effective plate discipline at shortstop for Double-A Harrisburg makes him appear pretty close to big-league ready.

From this view, a reasonable trade for Oswalt would be Meyers, Marrero, Clippard and another minor piece. And given the massive needs of the Astros, such a deal would certainly be in their interest.

Remembering the 2000 Trade Deadline

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Ah, times were different back in 2000. Bush and Gore were locked in a closely-contested race. Reality television was the exception, not the rule. And What Women Want taught us that Mel Gibson would be best remembered for capturing Helen Hunt's heart.

Meanwhile, let's climb into the Wayback Machine (though I believe Sherman has already called shotgun) and look at some of the biggest trade deadline hits from the year 2000…

  • The first deal of significance near the non-waiver trade deadline came on July 12, when the Yankees acquired Denny Neagle (and Mike Frank) for Jackson Melian, Drew Henson, Brian Reith and Ed Yarnall. The Yankees didn't lose much, since Henson's production never approached his hype. Neagle, however, was actually nearing the end of a good career, and posted just a 5.81 ERA after coming to New York.
  • Little-discussed, however, is one of the most impressive trade-deadline pickups of all time. On July 21, the Yankees dealt the forgettable Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena to the Cubs for Glenallen Hill. For Hill, the deal provided the last, best jolt of power in a home run-packed career. He hit .333/.378/.735 (!) with 16 home runs in 143 at-bats for the Yankees. It is hard to imagine a better example of acquiring an impact bat. Hill, who last played in 2001, publicly admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs late in his career.
  • The most important trade of that time took place on July 26, 2000, when the Phillies traded Curt Schilling to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee and Vicente Padilla. Padilla was the most productive of the bunch, with a pair of 14-win seasons, while Travis Lee, the centerpiece, hit just .258/.343/.402 in Philadelphia. Schilling, meanwhile, still had 111 of his 216 career victories ahead of him. He posted a 22-6 record in 2001, a 23-7 record in 2002, and had a successful Red Sox career after the trade.
  • Probably the biggest surprise of the players acquired at this time was Melvin Mora, traded with three other players by the Mets to the Orioles for Mike Bordick. The Mets wanted a shortstop and Bordick had a reputation as a strong defender. He posted a .260/.321/.385 mark with the Mets in 2000 and Mora went on to hit 158 home runs for the Orioles through 2009.
  • The Indians dealt a 25-year-old Richie Sexson, along with Kane Davis, Paul Rigdon and a player to be named later to the Brewers for three pitchers to shore up their pitching staff: Jason Bere, Bob Wickman and Steve Woodard. Of the three, only Wickman posted a reasonable ERA, and the Charlie Manuel-led Indians finished five games behind the Jerry Manuel-led White Sox. Sexson, meanwhile, hit 45 home runs in two of the next three seasons. And adding insult to injury, the player to be named later turned out to be Marco Scutaro.
  • In my favorite trade of the 2000 deadline, the Cardinals sent minor league slugger Jose Leon to the Orioles for first baseman Will Clark. All Clark did was hit .345/.426/.655 with the Cardinals, leading them into the NLCS. He then retired- the textbook case of going out on top.

Checking In On The Atlantic League

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Of the major independent leagues, play begins earliest in the Atlantic League, which often serves as a halfway house for players who eventually return to affiliated baseball. Making that jump has become increasingly common, with 11 former Atlantic Leaguers logging major league time in 2009. Former stars like Ruben Sierra and Juan Gonzalez have played in the Atlantic League and others, like Nelson Figueroa, have used the league to induce organized baseball to give them second chances.

It is hard to find a group more worthy of fan appreciation than those in the Atlantic League. These players earn small salaries and hope that with enough strong play, they can return to one of the 30 major league organizations.

So with the 2010 Atlantic League season more than 20 games old, let's take a look at some of the players there who could make that jump this year:

  • Kennard Jones currently leads the circuit for the Newark Bears with a .403 average, 13 extra-base hits in his first 77 at-bats, and nine walks against ten strikeouts. Jones was a third-round pick of the San Diego Padres back in 2002, and played all three outfield positions in their organization, though he's been primarily in right field with Newark. Just 28, it seems far from impossible to imagine him helping a big league team. Jones' big limitation during his time with the Padres was a lack of power, something he clearly doesn't suffer from in Newark.
  • Daryle Ward is a name familiar to many baseball fans, and he is remaking a name for himself with Newark as well, leading the Atlantic League with six home runs. Ward played with six major league teams, most notably with the Houston Astros, and could be a source of power for a team short at first base or designated hitter. Two notes of caution: Ward is turning 35 next month, and has three walks in his first 78 at-bats, a sign he has become an all-or-nothing hitter.
  • Rene Rivera, who played briefly with the Seattle Mariners and now plays with the Camden Riversharks, is tied with Ward for the league home run lead. Rivera plays catcher, a position where power is scarce, particularly this season, so he may be the best bet to find his way back to the major leagues. What works against Rivera is that he's never hit with anything close to this kind of power- in 259 plate appearances last season with Triple-A Buffalo, Rivera had nine home runs. Still, Rivera was a second round pick of the Mariners back in 2001, and is just 26. Catchers often develop later offensively, so perhaps Rivera has figured it out.
  • Another potential late bloomer is right-hander Ben Fritz, a first round pick of the Athletics back in 2001. The 6'4" hurler has been nothing short of dominant for the Lancaster Barnstormers so far this season, with 23 strikeouts against seven walks in his past three starts. Fritz never put it together for Oakland, but still just 29, perhaps Fritz is ready to shed his first-round bust label once and for all.

Some difference-makers were signed this past winter, and others will be acquired at the trade deadline, but don't discount the possibility that one could come from independent league baseball, either.

Possible Destinations: Andruw Jones

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Was a better bargain than Andruw Jones signed this winter? The White Sox added him on a one-year deal worth $500K, and all he's given them so far is a batting line of .260/.360/.604. Meanwhile, the man patrolling his old Atlanta center field home, Nate McLouth, checks in at .167/.302/.271, and Gary Matthews Jr., who will make twice what Jones does from the Mets this year (and next year!), is hitting .152/.235/.196.

The problem is, this hasn't allowed the White Sox to move into contention. Thanks to a 14-20 start, combined with Minnesota's 22-12 beginning, Chicago is already eight games out, with Memorial Day still weeks away. So it may well be that the White Sox can, and should flip Jones to a contending team down the stretch. And that reasonable short-term deal means some of the smaller-market contenders are likely to be in the Jones sweepstakes.

What are some possible destinations?

  • Washington could be a good fit. Willie Harris is hitting just .182/.313/.418, and with Willy Taveras also getting outfield at-bats, so Jones could be a good fit for regular corner outfield time. The Nationals have several pitchers set to join the big league team, but little in the way of outfield prospects at the top of their system. For now, the Nationals say they're content with Harris and Roger Bernadina.
  • Cincinnati has seen Drew Stubbs struggle in center field so far; he's hitting just .196/.283/.321. It shouldn't be hard to convince Dusty Baker to play the veteran Jones over Stubbs, either. It's not clear that Jones is still an every day center fielder, but Chicago has already played him there four times in 2010.
  • The Padres have Kyle Blanks in left field, Tony Gwynn Jr. in center field, and Will Venable in right field. Of the three, only Blanks profiles as a top prospect, so the other two could be vulnerable to a Jones acquisition, should San Diego remain in the race.
  • With Eric Chavez and Jake Fox struggling, and Rajai Davis reverting to form, the Athletics could use Jones in either center field or at designated hitter to support an imposing starting rotation. The move sounds a lot like acquiring Frank Thomas, doesn't it?
  • And don't fall asleep on Seattle, either. Currently 6.5 games out, the Mariners have the talent to climb back into the race, but their DHs, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney, simply aren't hitting. Jones could also slot into left field.

One thing's for sure: those who believed Andruw Jones' career was over- a sad thing for anyone who saw him dominate baseball in his 20s- appear to have been premature.

Where Could Alex Gordon Go?

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Let's face it: if the Royals aren't going to give Alex Gordon a chance to play regularly when they are 11-21, 10 games out of first, and weeks shy of Memorial Day, he has fallen out of favor with the club. After just 38 plate appearances, the Royals sent Gordon - the player they once selected him second overall - to Triple-A to make way for… Alberto Callaspo.

But Gordon, still just 26, is a career .320/.433/.577 hitter in the minor leagues. Clearly, some team should take a flier on Gordon as a possible long-term answer at third base. Which teams are best suited to do so, and how much is it likely to cost?

  • The Phillies seem like an interesting landing spot for Gordon, though not at first blush. Placido Polanco, after all, is signed through 2012. But Gordon could be an upgrade from Greg Dobbs at the very least. If Gordon fulfills his promise, the Phils could attempt to deal Polanco. More to the point, Gordon seems to fit the Phillies' template- his acquisition would be akin to the buy-low on Jayson Werth– and Philadelphia has depth in the farm system. A couple of their secondary pitching prospects could get it done.
  • The Orioles have a combined zero homers from Rhyne Hughes and Garrett Atkins, so Gordon could appeal to them as an option at first. Corner infield prospects Brandon Snyder and Josh Bell lurk in the minors, but with Miguel Tejada locked up for just one year, Gordon would provide the O's with depth and upside.
  • The Athletics don't have a ton in the way of a present or future player blocking Gordon. Kevin Kouzmanoff is a decent option, but he hardly has Gordon's upside at this point. With a number of nearly-ready pitching prospects to integrate into a young staff, the Athletics could well deal from pitching depth for Gordon, too.
  • The Padres are another possible landing spot, with Chase Headley unlikely to keep up his batting average-fueled start. San Diego has several third base prospects, including James Darnell, who Baseball America ranked as the organization's third-best prospect heading into the season. Still, none of the Padres prospects have even proven themselves at Double-A, so acquiring Gordon and giving him the chance to win the third base job wouldn't impact any of them in the short-term. It would also echo the acquisition of another buy-low, former top draft pick: Adrian Gonzalez. A package of one of the Padres' third base prospects and a pitcher should be enough to pry Gordon loose.

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