George Miller | MLB Trade Rumors

MLB, MLBPA Deal Not Expected By June 1

By George Miller | May 31, 2020 at 2:14pm CDT

There has been “no evidence of progress” in the discussions between MLB and the MLBPA as the two sides negotiate the economic provisions of a potential 2020 season, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network. As such, there’s no reason to believe the parties will reach an agreement ahead of the “soft” June 1 deadline.

That said, Heyman adds that there’s still hope to begin the season on the weekend of July 4 as intended, though for that to become a reality the two sides will need to come to an agreement in the next ten or so days. Heyman cites June 5-9 as the target dates for a deal.

In a later Tweet, Heyman states that despite the lack of progress in negotiations, there seems to be a prevailing sense of optimism that ultimately a deal will be reached; both players and owners recognize the steep consequences that a cancelled season could have for the sport. Frankly, there’s too much to lose if the parties can’t find common ground, and such an outcome would certainly cause considerable short- and long-term damage to MLB.

After the owners submitted their economic proposal on Tuesday, the players came away thoroughly dissatisfied with their side of the deal, namely taking issue with the sliding scale pay cuts that would further reduce player salaries. It’s also been reported that players are also in favor of a season with 100 games or more, up from the 82 proposed by MLB. However, given the league’s insistence on wrapping up the regular season by October 1 for various reasons—as reported by Heyman—that scenario seems far-fetched.

While it’s encouraging to hear that there’s optimism that the two sides can iron out their differences and arrive at a compromise, the fact remains that time is running out; if Independence Day is to remain a realistic target date, there’s just about a week to reach an agreement. After that point, the feasibility of a substantial season begins to decline.

Needless to say, both sides will need to make concessions in order to ensure a 2020 season is played. And with the negotiating parties still far apart, it might be a big ask to close that gap in short order. For the time being, we’ll wait with bated breath to see if the players and owners can find common ground.

Let’s Not Forget About Franchy Cordero

By George Miller | May 24, 2020 at 4:47pm CDT

With high-profile signings like Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado and a superlative farm system that has produced standout rookies like Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres have begun to return to relevancy after a stretch of seasons spent in baseball’s doldrums. More eyes are trained on the team now than maybe any point in the last decade, and onlookers have begun to expect results.

As such, the majority of the attention goes to the likes of Machado and Tatis—rightfully so—leaving other players in their shadow. One forgotten Padre could be key in their 2020 campaign: after elbow and quad injuries have limited him to just 49 games over the last two seasons, it’s easy to discount Franchy Cordero among the Padres’ core of young players. We’ve seen glimpses of his potential since he debuted in 2017, but we’ve yet to get a real extended look at him in the Majors, leaving us uncertain about the player he will be at his peak.

In parts of three seasons at the MLB level, Cordero has appeared in just 79 games and made 273 scattered plate appearances. That’s still a decent amount of exposure for a 25-year-old, but when it comes in bits and pieces rather than extended stretches, it makes it especially difficult to draw conclusions about who Cordero really is and will be as a player.

That said, there’s no doubt that he boasts a rare combination of power and speed that makes him a tantalizing player. Per Statcast measurements, his sprint speed has ranked in the top 11% of MLBers in each of the last three years. That alone is pretty impressive for a player of Cordero’s stature (6’3″, 175 lbs.), but it’s even cooler when you consider that in 2018, Cordero’s average exit velocity was 92.6 mph, which equals the numbers put up by Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler last year (granted, Cordero did so with very few batted balls, so the usual sample size concerns apply).

Those tools are fun—that much is undeniable. The numbers above point to something special, and they’re indicative of the superlative talent that could make Cordero a premier player in his prime years. But there’s a big difference between being a premier player and merely possessing awesome talent; plenty of athletic outliers have failed to grow into productive Major Leaguers. If Cordero is to solidify himself as a reliable regular in the Majors, he’ll need to develop a more well-rounded game. For one thing, his approach at the plate still leaves something to be desired: his strikeout rate (38.8% for his career) remains too high, especially given his unspectacular walk rate (8.8% career).

That’s a ubiquitous challenge for young players, and it’s something that is often tempered with sustained exposure to MLB pitching. Plenty of players succeed with high strikeout rates—especially those with prodigious power like Cordero—so it won’t take a complete transformation of Cordero’s skillset to unlock his next level. I’d argue that it comes down mostly to opportunity, and a regular role could do wonders for his development.

The Padres’ outfield mix will be a little crowded as it is, with the additions of Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham likely representing two Opening Day starters. Cordero can certainly compete for the third spot, but he’ll have to overtake Wil Myers for the job. He probably fits best in right field, but has played plenty of center field in his career. Regardless, Cordero is firmly among the four best outfielders on the roster and should therefore have a path to more at-bats, assuming he’s healthy. Anyway, if the NL plays the 2020 season with a designated hitter, there should be ample opportunity to get Cordero’s bat in the lineup one way or another.

Whereas in previous years Cordero has been an intriguing, if still mysterious, piece on some fun Padres teams, he now has a chance to be a real contributor on a team that hopes to be taken more seriously. Without a doubt, he’s a player that deserves attention; we’ll eagerly watch this year to see whether a consistent role will allow Cordero to make adjustments that bring him a step closer to stardom. Don’t be surprised if Cordero’s name becomes more familiar to baseball fans.

The Rangers’ New-Look Rotation Has Big-Time Upside

By George Miller | May 23, 2020 at 4:47pm CDT

Historically, pitching has not been a strength of the Texas Rangers. The franchise has consistently found itself sorely lacking true aces; outside of Nolan Ryan, there aren’t really any iconic pitchers that come to mind when you think of the Rangers. Kenny Rogers, anyone?

That trend held true once again last year, with the Rangers posting an overall 5.09 ERA that ranked seventh-worst in baseball. That said, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor anchored the top of the rotation admirably, each garnering Cy Young consideration and holding the staff intact during the hot Texas summer.

But when the 2020 season boots up, Lynn and Minor will have some help, and starting pitching may indeed be a strength for this year’s iteration of the team. GM Jon Daniels and company made a concerted effort in the winter to acquire starting pitchers—and they did so at relatively little cost, meaning that a bit of short-term ambition likely won’t impeach on the franchise’s future plans.

Corey Kluber is the big-name addition, and the two-time Cy Young winner should do plenty to bolster the Rangers’ staff. Even so, the team didn’t mortgage the future to bring him aboard: Kluber is only guaranteed a contract for this year, with a vesting option that could keep him in Texas through 2021. Coming off a season in which he could pitch in just seven games, he was acquired in exchange for Delino DeShields and Emmanuel Clase, a move that was widely praised at the time and looks even worse for Cleveland in light of Clase’s PED suspension.

But the smaller-scale signings of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, while not deserving of the same attention as the acquisition of a decade-defining pitcher like Kluber, could together have just as great an impact on the Rangers’ success as Kluber. In the offseason, Lyles signed on with a two-year, $16MM deal, while Gibson earned himself a three-year contract worth $28MM. Together, they’ll make $19MM in 2020, just a hair more than Kluber’s salary.

Lyles has been around forever, it seems, breaking in as a young arm with the Astros and Rockies, but it took until his age-28 season for him to put it all together as a starter. After a slow start with the Pirates earned him a trade to Milwaukee, he put up career-best numbers, striking out 146 batters in 141 innings, an unprecedented rate for Lyles.

How come? The simple version is that Lyles began relying less and less on his sinker, a staple in his repertoire throughout the early stages of his career. His sinker usage dropped to a minuscule 1.7% last year while he threw four-seam fastballs 50.2% of the time, more than he ever had before. The curveball also became a more important weapon in his pitch mix.

That isn’t too unlike the formula that Lance Lynn rode to his career-best 2019 season. Just like Lyles, Lynn’s sinker usage hit a career low last year, replaced almost entirely by four-seam fastballs—largely in the upper part of the strike zone. This isn’t unique to the Rangers—the Astros’ unparalleled pitching brilliance hinges on this philosophy—and it’s a trend that has redefined the way we look at pitching in MLB.

It’s an approach that worked for the Rangers last year, Lynn’s first in Texas, and perhaps Daniels is confident that his staff can use it to produce similar results with Lyles and Gibson this year. Sure enough, the sinker has been Gibson’s most-used pitch through his first five years as a big-leaguer. Sound familiar? Granted, Gibson’s four-seamer hasn’t been a great pitch for him, but throwing fewer sinkers could in turn lead to a jump in his slider usage, a high-spin pitch that may be a hidden gem.

Still, pitching at the MLB level is not as simple as flipping a switch and saying, “sinker bad, four-seam good.” That approach can’t be uniformly applied to every pitcher in baseball with the same results; there’s a reason careers have been forged around the sinker. And yet, the proliferation of the high fastball in MLB lends credence to its value, and the Rangers may have pursued the likes of Gibson and Lyles with that style in mind.

But that’s only half the battle; the burden then falls on the coaching staff and players themselves to accept and implement adjustments. It’s why we still play the games when there’s such a wealth of knowledge out there. So we’ll anxiously await the 2020 season to see whether the on-field results look as good as the ideas that underpin them.

The Nationals’ Deadline Dandy

By George Miller | May 17, 2020 at 4:31pm CDT

Last year’s July 31 trade deadline featured plenty of notable deals, including the Astros’ last-minute acquisition of Zack Greinke; the Cubs’ trade for Nicholas Castellanos; the three-team swap involving Trevor Bauer, Yasiel Puig, and Franmil Reyes; and more. Overshadowed in that commotion was a trade went largely under the radar at the time, but wound up being perhaps one of the most important deals made last year.

The Nationals agreed to a swap with the Blue Jays, sending minor league right-hander Kyle Johnston to Toronto in exchange for then-32-year-old reliever Daniel Hudson. After beginning his career as a successful starter with the Diamondbacks, Hudson had since been moved to the bullpen, making stints with the Pirates, Dodgers, and then the Blue Jays.

To that point, Hudson had pitched 48 innings for the Blue Jays, striking out a batter per inning and posting an even 3.00 ERA. Make no mistake, he was viewed as a fine bullpen addition for Washington, but he alone wouldn’t solve all the Nats’ relief issues, and many would have preferred GM Mike Rizzo to make a play for Detroit’s Shane Greene, who was sent to the Braves.

For the remainder of the regular season, Hudson would go on to pitch to a stellar 1.44 ERA with the Nationals, pitching 25 innings and striking out 23. He proved to be less prone to walking batters, decreasing his BB/9 from 4.3 with Toronto to just 1.4 with the Nats.

That’s great, but he really found himself thrust into the spotlight with his postseason performance, serving as one of the most reliable arms in the Washington bullpen, helping to a World Series title.

He pitched in nine postseason games for the Nats, throwing 9 2/3 innings and striking out 10. He only surrendered 4 runs, 3 of which came in a clunker WS Game 5. He pitched again in the decisive Game 7, and is notable for recording the final out of the series for the Nats, striking out Houston’s Michael Brantley. The Nats won eight of the games in which he appeared, though of course that’s probably a chicken and egg situation.

In recent years, we’ve by and large seen workhorse starting pitchers go the way of the dinosaur, especially in postseason play: teams are relying increasingly on a cohort of stingy relief pitchers in October games. But the 2019 Nationals flipped that trend on its head, delegating the vast majority of innings to Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez, and Patrick Corbin–sometimes even deploying their starters in relief roles. That foursome combined to account for just about 70% of Washington’s postseason innings.

The Nats’ bullpen was a weakness all year, and many viewed that weakness as one of the biggest obstacles to their postseason success. But they simply chose to minimize that weakness on the backs of their starters; if the bullpen simply doesn’t pitch, it can’t hurt you, right?

And like we said before, one man cannot solve an entire team’s bullpen problems, but his impact is much greater when the team is only relying on three or four relievers consistently. With the aforementioned quartet picking up so much of the slack, Dave Martinez didn’t need all of his bullpen to perform; instead, he could delegate most of the relief work to Hudson, Sean Doolittle, and Tanner Rainey. Evidently, the strategy worked, and if there’s a team in baseball that can afford to put so much on the shoulders of its starters, the Nationals are probably it.

His performance with his new club earned him a new contract, with the Nats re-signing Hudson to a two-year, $11MM deal that will keep him in Washington through the 2021 season. He’ll play this season at age 33 and with a newfound popularity. We’ll see if he can replicate the success that endeared him to Nationals fans.

Universal DH Could Revitalize Former NL MVP

By George Miller | May 16, 2020 at 5:18pm CDT

If and when the baseball season resumes in 2020, it’s expected to do so with the oft-debated universal DH implemented. With than in mind, we’re running through each NL team’s DH options . Today, we’re looking at the innovative Milwaukee Brewers, who’ve demonstrated their willingness to get creative with personnel under manager Craig Counsell.

Counsell’s club looks pretty well-positioned to adapt to the rule change, though it seems like they won’t need to rely on just a single player to handle the DH duties; rather, they’ve got a host of capable players at their disposal, and should be able to adjust their lineup on a matchup basis.

The first name that comes to mind for Milwaukee is Ryan Braun. With the addition of Avisail Garcia, Braun has likely been pushed out of a regular role in the outfield. And with Justin Smoak on the roster, he probably won’t see too much time at first base, either—though a platoon is possible. So it make sense that Braun should get first dibs on DH at-bats in Milwaukee, and it’s a timely development for him given his fall down the defensive spectrum. He’s still a solid hitter (.849 OPS last year), but the rise of Christian Yelich and acquisition of Garcia has rendered him somewhat marginal in the Brewers’ plans.

Keston Hiura, who’s encountered concerns about his defense in his brief career, would be a fine DH on days where he needs a rest from the field. But the new rule shouldn’t impeach on his role as the everyday second baseman; despite the defensive concerns, it would probably be unwise to abandon hope for him as a passable defender so early in his career—especially if the universal DH doesn’t wind up a permanent change.

Jedd Gyorko is maybe the next-best option after Braun, though he frankly doesn’t offer much that Braun can’t do himself. Both he and Braun are righties, which isn’t a bad thing, but both perform considerably better against left-handed pitchers. Logan Morrison was brought aboard on a minor league deal, so he lurks as a possible lefty DH candidate. But the fact of the matter is that Morrison is more than two years removed from reliable production, failing to muster even a .700 OPS in either of the previous two seasons. Still, depending on the maximum roster allowance this year, Morrison might be worth rostering in a pinch.

Otherwise, Omar Narvaez is noted for his reputation as one of the stronger offensive catchers in baseball, but he lacks the defensive chops to make him a top-flight catcher. On days when Manny Piña suits up behind the dish, it might not hurt to give Narvaez, a lefty hitter, some run in the DH role. He tallied an .813 OPS last year, which is right about on par with the other Brewers we’ve mentioned, so Counsell could still enjoy Narvaez’s offensive output without sacrificing anything on the defensive end. Narvaez should get plenty of looks against right-handed pitching, which makes up for some of the aforementioned overlap between Braun’s and Gyorko’s skillsets.

In addition, the Brewers have a host of versatile infield options that can rotate in and out of the lineup. Between Gyorko, Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, and Luis Urias, the Brewers accumulated a number of utility-type players in the winter. Those acquisitions might seem a bit redundant, but they should combine to offer much-appreciated versatility. In a vacuum, none of those names are particularly ideal candidates to fill the DH role, but their availability will allow Counsell to optimize his defensive alignment while maintaining his offensive firepower. Neither Gyorko nor Sogard owns a particularly robust defensive track record, so look for them to assume DH duties as needed.

All things considered, the Brewers look to be in good shape should MLB move forward with the universal DH, and they could get creative with the way they deploy their catchers and infielders. Ryan Braun will get his fair share of at-bats as probably the best bench bat on the roster, but others like Jedd Gyorko, Eric Sogard, Omar Narvaez, and even Keston Hiura could get a crack. If anyone falters, the Brewers will have a wealth of alternatives to whom they can turn.

This post is the latest in an ongoing series on MLBTR in which we examine every National League team’s designated hitter options. Previously, we looked at the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Braves.

Latest On MLB’s 2020 Schedule Proposal

By George Miller and TC Zencka | May 10, 2020 at 8:32pm CDT

TODAY: The league’s proposal will include use of a designated hitter for both NL and AL lineups, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote that the universal DH concept was “at least being discussed and considered” by league officials.

SATURDAY: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has the details on MLB’s newest proposal for a 2020 season. Rosenthal notes that nothing he describes is set in stone and could very well change upon scrutinization from the Players’ Union or medical professionals. Read his full write-up for all the details.

That said, the bones of the proposal are as follows: MLB would look to play a 78- or 82-game season beginning in early July, where teams would compete only with opponents in their geographic region (i.e., AL West teams would play only division rivals and NL West teams). Ideally, those games would take place in clubs’ normal home parks, but teams in cities where that isn’t feasible could temporarily relocate to their spring training cites or other MLB parks.

A 14-team postseason structure continues to be floated as part of this newest proposal. As previously described, each league would send 7 teams into the playoffs instead of the current 5. The best record in each league would hold a premium place in the postseason as the only team to get a bye for the first round. Of course, until we hear differently, any and all news of a playing schedule should be taken with a grain of salt.

Player pay continues to be a key question with any proposal (beyond health concerns and logistics, of course). There is no timetable for when fans would be allowed to return to stadiums, making it likely that players would be asked to accept a further reduction in pay. As Rosenthal lays out, however, they would potentially be compensated through a single-season revenue-sharing agreement.

The ramifications of this schedule proposal spread far and wide, though the priority remains on figuring out the safest and best way to return to baseball. Still, a season half the length of normal could result in suped-up playoff races.

Beyond the ramifications on the 2020 season, a wonky schedule could add another wrinkle to upcoming drafts. A short season means less margin for error and more room for potential cinderella runs or surprising collapses. Limiting the draft to just 5 rounds, meanwhile, means that a great number of potentially very good major league players will go unselected. It also likely means a stronger draft class in 2021 and beyond, as players with remaining eligibility will be inclined to return to school for another go-round. Factoring in a short season that could send some very competitive clubs to the top of the draft order, and MLB is facing a very particular couple of (draft) seasons in the short term. From a financial standpoint, clubs will have the opportunity to sign some very high-potential undrafted players for a mere $20K signing bonus. The competition and eventual distribution of those players will be an interesting case study to track over the next 10+ years.

Of course, the first step remains the approval of the proposed structure. If the owners approve of the deal on their scheduled call with the league office, Rosenthal suggests that the proposal could be sent to the Players’ Union for approval as early as Tuesday.

Stanford Study Shows Low Prevalence Of COVID-19 Among MLB Employees

By George Miller | May 10, 2020 at 4:36pm CDT

A University of Stanford study of 5,603 MLB employees showed that 0.7% tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. 60 people tested positive, but that number was adjusted to account for the possibility of false positives/negatives. There have been no deaths among that group.

The study, conducted in mid-April, distributed testing kits to employees of 27 MLB teams. 5,754 were completed, and 5,603 respondents filled out an accompanying survey. It’s important to mention that roughly 70% of those who tested positive displayed no symptoms, which suggests that the true incidence of the virus across the country is considerably higher than one might assume.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of the University of Stanford, the lead researcher in the study, said that he was surprised to discover such a small number, but warns that those numbers could simply indicate that we are still in the early stages of the epidemic.

For what it’s worth, the Angels, Mets, and Yankees displayed the highest rates of infection, though it’s notable that even those rates were lower than their respective counties.

Drawing conclusions from these results will be tricky, especially considering that the body of test subjects consisted of primarily white collar employees—obviously, it’s not a sample that’s representative of nationwide demographics, and that could partially explain the low prevalence rate.

According to Molly Knight of The Athletic, an MLB spokesperson stated that the league wouldn’t consider the results of this study in deliberating if and when to begin play for the 2020 season. So while we’re quick to make assumptions about what these results tell us, there’s no reason to believe that this development brings us any closer to, or further from, the return of baseball.

Of course, the purpose of the study wasn’t the league’s readiness to resume play; rather, Bhattacharya and company hoped to examine where exactly we stand in the timeline of the infection, giving consideration to several different metropolitan areas across the country.

How Nomar Mazara Can Reach His Potential With The White Sox

By George Miller | May 3, 2020 at 4:47pm CDT

One of the wild cards of the 2020 season will be the development of 25-year-old outfielder Nomar Mazara, who will look to finally break out, this time in a new environment. By now, Mazara has had four whole seasons to prove himself at the Major League level, and in 2019 he was largely the same player as he was when he debuted with the Rangers in 2016. Last year was critical for the marriage between Mazara and the Rangers; if Mazara were to establish himself as a building block for Texas, he needed to take the leap that the club has been expecting since it signed him in 2011 as an amateur. Unfortunately, that progress didn’t really come, and the Rangers dealt Mazara to the outfield-needy White Sox in December.

At 6’4″ and 215 lbs., Mazara looks the part of an MLB slugger: his frame alone is enough to convince spectators that he’s got superstar potential. He’s almost in the Giancarlo Stanton/Joey Gallo class of physicality, and his mammoth home runs lend credence to that comparison—Mazara hit the longest homer in MLB last year with a Statcast-measured 505-foot blast. When Mazara gets into one, your eyes light up at the thought of him mashing with regularity.

But the fact of the matter is that Mazara has yet to hit more than 20 homers in a season, and has in fact never put up a season of even 1.0 WAR by FanGraphs’ measure (Baseball-Reference agrees). It’s been frustrating for Rangers fans to follow his development, not because he’s been a bad player, but simply because they recognize he could be so much more.

While his average exit velocity of 89.1 mph only ranked in the 51st percentile last year, his hardest-hit balls tell a different story: his maximum exit velo, 114.6 mph, ranked number 41 among all MLB hitters. That’s something you might expect from a perennial 30-homer guy, not someone who’s plateaued at the 20-home run threshold. So what’s holding him back?

For one thing, his ceiling has thus far been limited by just average on-base skills: Mazara has never walked at a rate higher than 9% in a single season, meaning that his yearly on-base percentage has consistently hovered around .320, which is just about MLB-average. Even when he does tap into his prodigious power, that leaves him a step below the likes of Gallo or Stanton, who command enough respect from pitchers—and are disciplined enough—to generate above-average walk rates.

Last year, Mazara was at his most aggressive since entering the big leagues: he swung the bat more often at pitches both inside and outside the zone, and that change yielded mixed results. As you might expect, more swings means that he also missed more often than ever, though that didn’t adversely affect his strikeout rate. His walk rate was the lowest of his career, but the more assertive Mazara was able to post his best hard-hit and slugging numbers yet, though not by a huge margin.

But none of that looks to be the driving force behind Mazara’s stagnation; we’ve seen plenty of players put up big power numbers with subpar plate discipline. To this point in his career, the most frustrating part of Mazara’s game is the frequency with which he does damage. Mazara just hasn’t been able to get to that power as often as we’d like to see. And whether he reaches his ceiling in Chicago seems to hinge on one particularly troubling facet of his game, and that’s his inability to pull the ball in the air.

To preface: generally, pulling fly balls is an undeniably good thing, at least for players with the strength to swing for the fences: in 2019, MLB hitters posted a cumulative wRC+ on pulled grounders of -5. That’s really bad. 100 denotes average, so we’re talking about 105% below average. On the other hand, that number for pulled fly balls was an astronomical 403. So pulling the ball tends to be a profitable endeavor for MLB sluggers. That’s no surprise, and it’s the reason baseball has experienced a “fly ball revolution” in the last half-decade.

But Mazara has thus far been unable to take advantage of that revolution. When he pulls the ball, the results just haven’t been there simply because he hits the ball on the ground too often: in 2019, 66% of the balls Mazara hit to right field were grounders, by the far the least favorable outcome for a player of his stature. In essence, the best way to get extra-base hits—fly balls to the pull field—just haven’t been a significant weapon in Mazara’s arsenal. When he does pull the ball, he simply isn’t doing as much damage as he could be by elevating the ball. That’s been the case for his entire career, and frankly I think it’s the single biggest thing preventing Mazara from becoming an All-Star.

Interestingly, the same trend isn’t true of his hits to the opposite field: in fact, he hit the ball in the air much more often when going to left field (54.1 FB%, compared to just 23.9 GB%), and that translated to better results: Mazara posted a 139 wRC+ when going the other way, which is well above league average. His production on opposite field swings gives us a glimpse of what could be if he’s able to generate a similar batted-ball distribution to his pull field. And one figures those numbers would only get better when he pulls the ball, where it’s easier for hitters to get to their strength. He’s capable of elevating the ball, and good things happen when he does, but to this point he’s failed to do so when it’s most advantageous.

He’ll get the starting right field gig with the White Sox this summer, and while Chicagoans might have preferred their team to go after someone with a more solid track record, the fruits of acquiring Mazara might be sweeter than any other outfielder on the market. The South Siders have had success developing young players in recent years, and Mazara could fit right in with their burgeoning young core. So whatever the mechanical or mental source of the trend we described above, they’ll hope the player development staff can unlock what Texas couldn’t and tap into Mazara’s electric talent. That could make the difference between whether he merely tantalizes with his potential, or actualizes it.

Quick Hits: Bloom, Draft, Krause, White Sox, Rangers

By George Miller | May 2, 2020 at 3:48pm CDT

Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom described some of the challenges that will come out of the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s MLB Draft in a discussion with the Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Bloom’s organization is particularly aware of the value of an additional year of scouting, which allowed the team to select Andrew Benintendi in the first round in 2015—something that probably wouldn’t happen if teams’ exposure was limited to his nondescript freshman season the year before. But that’s precisely the scenario teams find themselves in now: they won’t have the same feel for which draft-eligible players would have taken an additional leap this season and might have to base those judgments on just a few weeks of play. In addition, the shortened format of the draft (no more than 10 rounds) could influence teams’ strategy, especially in the later rounds, where clubs might look to take risks on players who will command more than $20K (the maximum amount for which teams can sign undrafted players). All this means that more high school players might opt to forego pro ball in favor of a collegiate scholarship.

Former Chicago Bulls front office executive Jerry Krause has received plenty of scrutiny recently, thanks to ESPN’s Michael Jordan docuseries, “The Last Dance.” But Krause’s tenure as the Bulls’ GM was bookended by a career as a baseball scout, where he worked most prominently with the White Sox. The Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales reflects on Krause’s astute eye and resolution as a scout; he was instrumental in swaying White Sox higher-ups to make a play for shortstop Ozzie Guillen (then a Padres minor-leaguer), who would of course go on to play 13 years and rack up 19.5 WAR with the South Siders—not to mention his role in managing the 2005 World Series team.
Beginning May 15, the Rangers will institute pay cuts for some of their full-time employees, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Per Grant, employees above a certain salary threshold will have their pay reduced by roughly 10-20%, which will affect approximately half of the team’s full-time staffers. That said, there won’t be any layoffs or furloughs at this time. A number of high-rankings Rangers execs, including GM Jon Daniels, had already begun taking pay cuts in April, but this round will expand the scope of those measures. They’re one of just a few teams that won’t be paying teams in full through May, with a handful of teams implementing similar pay cuts, while the Rays have furloughed some of their employees.

Revisiting The Braves’ Fleecing Of The D-Backs In The Shelby Miller Trade

By George Miller | April 26, 2020 at 4:32pm CDT

In late 2015, the Braves drummed up quite a bidding war for right-handed pitcher Shelby Miller, who became one of the biggest names on that winter’s trade market. As a controllable, 25-year-old starter who had spent the last year toiling away on a Braves team that lost 95 games, he garnered interest from as many as 20 teams: what’s not to like? This was a player who could boost a team’s playoff chances not only for the coming year, but for the foreseeable future as well—and he was attainable. Unfortunately for the team that won that bidding war, the Arizona Diamondbacks, it gave way to one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory.

In its entirety, the five-player deal sent Miller and relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks, who in turn gave up Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Aaron Blair to the Braves. Just about six months earlier, the D-Backs made Swanson, a 21-year-old shortstop from Vanderbilt, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. For that hefty price, Arizona got their man.

Miller was coming off a year in which he notched an unsightly 6-17 W-L record, but that mark was wildly misaligned with his 3.02 ERA, which fell just outside the top 10 in the NL. He did that while tossing 205 1/3 innings in his first (and only) year in Atlanta, which acquired him as the centerpiece of the trade that sent Jason Heyward to the Cardinals.

But the D-Backs’ valuation of Miller proved to be severely misguided. In his first year in Arizona, he would go 3-12 and was credited with just 0.6 fWAR. And while you need to look just a year in the past for evidence that W-L records can be misleading, Miller couldn’t hang his hat on a good ERA this time around: his 6.15 ERA in 20 starts was the worst among NL starters with at least 100 IP. Despite the impressive run prevention numbers from 2015, Miller’s price tag portrayed him as a front-line starter when he was probably more accurately described as a mid-rotation arm.

The move firmly declared Arizona GM Dave Stewart’s intent to contend in the immediate future. Acquiring Miller came on the heels of the Zack Greinke free-agent signing, which gave the D-Backs a formidable rotation of Greinke, Miller, Robbie Ray, and Patrick Corbin. Add that to an offense anchored by Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and it’s not hard to see how Arizona perceived a path to the postseason. However, they would win just 69 games in 2016 and essentially wound up as a re-imagination of the previous year’s Padres, a team that likewise went all in only to fall flat.

Even in the immediate aftermath of the deal, many viewed the deal as a vast overpay on the Diamondbacks’ part. But that negative public perception apparently didn’t bother the club, which was dead-set on vaulting itself into the playoff picture after winning 79 games the year before. It’s an admirable approach, no doubt, to try to capitalize on the coincidence of Paul Goldschmidt’s prime with the big-money signing of Greinke. But in this case, the price just didn’t match the prize. Of course, as we know now, the team would have to wait a year—and install a new front office regime—before they broke into the 2017 postseason as a Wild Card team.

At the time, Swanson was one of the first draftees (and first number one choice) to be traded under a new rule that allowed teams to deal drafted players after the World Series in the year of their selection. He is one of three first overall selections to have been traded before debuting with the team that drafted him. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in his summation of the trade at the time, Swanson was the latest in a series of moves that illustrated the Arizona regime’s apparent devaluation of draft picks: by trading Swanson, signing Greinke (and therefore surrendering their 2016 top pick), and trading Touki Toussaint, the team had effectively missed out on three consecutive years of first-round selections.

Swanson was heralded as the shortstop of the future for Atlanta, which had just recently shipped Andrelton Simmons to the Angels. And although Swanson maybe hasn’t been the superstar that we expect from a No. 1 overall draft pick, he’s been a good MLB shortstop and showed us glimpses of another gear last year, when he had his best offensive season thanks to improved power output. If that upward trend is to be believed and he can provide even slightly above-average offensive numbers, Swanson can really solidify himself as a building block in Atlanta, thanks to his solid defense at a key position. Check out the growth in Swanson’s hard-hit rate and expected hitting stats from 2018 to 2019, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Inciarte, meanwhile, wound up being a surprisingly important piece of the deal for the Braves. He won the Gold Glove Award for NL center fielders in each of his first three years in Atlanta, ultimately serving as a nice transitional piece between losing years in 2014-2017 and the contending teams of today. And while he’s seen his role with the Braves diminish over the last couple of years, he proved to be a pretty solid acquisition for a team that lacked quality Major League talent outside of Freddie Freeman. He was a fine guy to pencil into center field every day while the franchise cultivated a core of young players.

Neither Blair nor Speier wound up contributing much to the teams that acquired them: Speier made his MLB debut last year with the Royals, who got him in exchange for Jon Jay, and Blair hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2017. He was a former first-round pick himself, but failed to put things together when he got his chance with the Braves in 2016.

All told, the combination of Inciarte, Swanson, and Blair has thus far produced 13.1 fWAR for the Braves, with more likely to come from Swanson and, to a lesser extent, Inciarte. For the Diamondbacks, Miller and Speier produced a meager 0.7 fWAR. Miller lasted just three years in Arizona, appearing in only 29 games and pitching 139 innings for the team.

Last year, he got a chance with the Rangers and toggled between the bullpen and the starting rotation, but the change of scenery didn’t seem to help his fortunes. He tossed 44 innings of 8.59-ERA ball, striking out just 30 batters. In January of this year, he earned himself a minor-league deal with the Brewers, and was expected to begin the season with the team’s Triple-A affiliate.

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