Latest On Griffin Canning
Padres right-hander Griffin Canning is still recovering from last year’s ruptured left Achilles tendon and will start the 2026 season on the injured list. He is already throwing just fine but isn’t yet ready to field his position. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune says that a return in late April is possible but that May or June would be more likely.
Canning suffered his injury in June of last year with the Mets, with no specific timeline provided for his recovery. Similar injuries to other players have often led to absences of around a year. It was reported in January that Canning could be ready “around” Opening Day but that may have been a bit optimistic.
Even with the health question marks, the Padres felt comfortable giving Canning a major league deal with a $2.5MM guarantee, plus some potential incentives. He did look fairly sharp with the Mets last year, before the injury. Compared to his time with the Angels, he threw more cutters and sliders, with fewer four-seamers and knuckle curves.
He made 16 starts and logged 76 1/3 innings, allowing 3.77 earned runs per nine. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate were a bit worse than average but he generated grounders on 50.9% of balls in play. That figure was well above average and also far better than anything he had done previously, as he was actually more of a fly ball guy with the Halos.
The Padres will hope that he can carry some of that over into 2026, though they will have to wait for Canning to get healthy first. Michael King, Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta are the clear top three in the rotation. That leaves at least two open spots to start the year. The Padres also have some openness to a six-man rotation, which would mean jobs for three other starters.
Matt Waldron is also going to start the season on the IL after recently requiring a procedure to address a hemorrhoid. Yu Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season due to elbow surgery. Randy Vásquez and Germán Márquez are on the roster and are likely the favorites for the final two rotation spots. JP Sears is also on the roster but has options, so he will likely end up sent to Triple-A. Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are in camp as non-roster invitees.
The Opening Day rotation will likely be temporary, with Canning set to take a spot when he returns. The decision of how to make room for Canning will depend on the health and performance of the other arms in the interim. Waldron will seemingly be back in the mix before Canning but he is out of options and posted a 7.71 ERA last year, so his return could lead to a tough decision for the Padres.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Poll: Who Will Win The 2026 World Baseball Classic?
The 2026 edition of the World Baseball Classic kicks off tonight, technically Thursday locally in Japan but the time difference will make it late Wednesday night for those watching in the Western Hemisphere. Australia will face off against Chinese Taipei in the opening contest.
The 2023 version had memorable moments, both exhilarating and heartbreaking. The Dominican Republic squad was stunningly knocked out by Puerto Rico in the group stage, but the celebration for the latter club quickly turned sour when Edwin Díaz suffered a knee injury that ultimately wiped out his major league season. Puerto Rico was then knocked out in the quarterfinals when Mexico put up a three spot in the seventh inning, giving them a 5-4 win. Mexico then seemed on the verge of knocking out Japan in the semis but Munetaka Murakami hit a two-run double to walk it off.
The final then led to an exciting and memorable climax, with Japan leading the United States 3-2 going into the ninth. Japan sent Shohei Ohtani, their designated hitter, to the mound to get the final three outs. Ohtani walked Jeff McNeil but then got Mookie Betts to ground into a double play. Ohtani’s then-teammate with the Angels Mike Trout stepped to the plate with the title on the line. Trout worked a full count but was ultimately punched out by Ohtani, giving Japan the crown.
Japan has been the most successful club in WBC history, with that being their third title. They also won in 2006 and 2009. The Dominican Republic emerged victorious in 2013, followed by the United States in 2017. There was then a bigger gap than usual due to the pandemic, with the 2021 version getting pushed to 2023.
This year’s version will again feature a whole bunch of big names. Japan has Ohtani, Murakami, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kazuma Okamoto, Seiya Suzuki and more. The Americans are loaded with stars like Aaron Judge, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Bryce Harper and more. The Dominicans have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. The Venezuelans have brothers Willson Contreras and William Contreras. The Canadians have brothers Josh Naylor and Bo Naylor. Puerto Rico has Nolan Arenado, the Great Britain team has Jazz Chisholm Jr., Mexico has Jarren Duran, Italy has Vinnie Pasquantino and on and on. Full rosters can be viewed here.
Who do you think will take it all? Cast your vote in MLBTR’s poll.
Who will win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images
Wilmer Flores Holding Out For Major League Deal
Veteran infielder Wilmer Flores remains unsigned with about three weeks to go until Opening Day. He tells Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle that he has had some minor league offers but he is hoping to land a major league deal. He plans to play this year and is working out in Florida to keep himself ready. “I’m not done playing,” Flores said. “I’m just waiting.”
Flores, 34, spent the past six years with the Giants. He served as a valuable multi-positional player for most of that time but has been more limited recently. From 2020 to 2023, he made 1,705 plate appearances and slashed .257/.331/.454 for a 116 wRC+, indicating he was 16% better than league average. He logged over 700 innings at each of the non-shortstop infield spots.
In 2024, he was hampered by knee problems. He only got into 71 games and produced a limp .206/.277/.318 line in those. His 2025 was a bit more encouraging but still came with limitations. He was at third base for just nine innings and didn’t appear at second base. He saw more time at first but only made 23 starts there, mostly serving as a designated hitter. His .241/.307/.379 line was better than in 2024 but still came in below average, with a 95 wRC+.
A return to the Giants in 2026 was never especially likely. He’s mostly down to a first base only guy at this point. He hasn’t played second base since 2023 and only logged ten innings that year. He logged 14 innings at third base in 2024 and nine last year. The Giants don’t have a lot of first base playing time to offer, with Rafael Devers the regular at that spot going forward. If Bryce Eldridge cements himself as a viable big leaguer, he and Devers will have first base and the designated hitter spot occupied for years to come.
Flores tells Slusser that he had some talks with the Giants this winter but the club informed him they would be prioritizing second base. Flores says he knew he wouldn’t be a Giant again when they signed Luis Arráez, which bumped Casey Schmitt down to being the righty-hitting multi-positional infielder, the job Flores used to have.
Other clubs seemingly have some interest in Flores, though not enough for him to have a roster spot at the moment. He’s not the ideal fit for a platoon bat, as he hasn’t had wide splits in his career. He has been better against lefties but not drastically so, with a .266/.319/.468 line and 113 wRC+ against southpaws compared to a .255/.314/.409 line and 100 wRC+ otherwise. He was slightly better against righties in 2025.
Though he hasn’t been offered a roster spot yet, it’s always possible that new developments change the situation. The Cubs had planned on Tyler Austin serving as a righty complement to first baseman Michael Busch but Austin recently required knee surgery and is going to be out months. Atlanta was going to have Jurickson Profar as their designated hitter but he just got hit with a yearlong PED suspension. That frees up some at-bats and some money for the club, as Profar won’t be paid while serving. Other injuries are sure to pop up over time as well.
Flores will have competition for those opportunities. Guys like Justin Turner and Rowdy Tellez are also free agents, while guys like Ryan Mountcastle, Isaac Paredes, Triston Casas and Mark Vientos could be available on the trade block.
Photo courtesy of Eakin Howard, Imagn Images
MLBTR Podcast: Max Scherzer, The Red Sox’ Lineup, Spring Extension Candidates, And More!
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Blue Jays re-signing Max Scherzer and how that alters their rotation picture (3:45)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Could it help with parity if the small-market clubs got even more competitive balance picks and if all picks could be traded? (18:25)
- Why do the Yankees seemingly over value their prospects? Wouldn’t it be better to trade Jasson Domínguez instead of relegating him to a depth role? (36:00)
- Do the Red Sox have enough power in the lineup? What bats could be available at the deadline who would fit the lineup? Would Masataka Yoshida have any trade value if he performs well in the World Baseball Classic? (47:15)
- Which players are likely to be extended before the start of the season or which ones would you like to see extended? (55:45)
Check out our past episodes!
- Twins And Orioles’ Injuries, The Guardians And Angels’ Quiet Offseasons, And Chris Sale’s Extension – listen here
- The Tigers’ Rotation, A Brewers-Red Sox Trade, And Late Free-Agent Signings – listen here
- Twins Front Office Shake-Up, The Brendan Donovan Trade, Eugenio Suarez, And More! – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images
Out Of Options 2026
Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.
The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.
Angels
- Jo Adell, OF
- Vaughn Grissom, IF
- Oswald Peraza, IF
- Chase Silseth, SP/RP
Astros
- Nick Allen, IF
- Roddery Muñoz, RP
- Isaac Paredes, IF
- Nate Pearson, SP/RP
- César Salazar, C
Athletics
- Andy Ibáñez, IF
- Luis Medina, SP/RP
Blue Jays
- Ernie Clement, IF
- Tyler Heineman, C
- Leo Jiménez, IF
- Tommy Nance, RP
- Jesús Sánchez, OF
Braves
- Bryce Elder, SP
- Ian Hamilton, RP
- Grant Holmes, SP
- Joel Payamps, RP
- José Suarez, SP/RP
- Joey Wentz, SP/RP
- Eli White, OF
- Brett Wisely, IF/OF
- Danny Young, RP
Brewers
- Rob Zastryzny, RP
Cardinals
- Justin Bruihl, RP
- José Fermín, IF/OF
- Iván Herrera, C
- Riley O’Brien, RP
- George Soriano, RP
Cubs
- Miguel Amaya, C
- Tyler Austin, 1B
- Edward Cabrera, SP
- Justin Steele, SP
Diamondbacks
- Jorge Barrosa, OF
- Pavin Smith, 1B/OF
Dodgers
- Brock Stewart, RP
Giants
- José Buttó, RP
- Jerar Encarnación, 1B/OF
- Matt Gage, RP
- Sam Hentges, RP
- Luis Matos, OF
- Heliot Ramos, OF
- Randy Rodríguez, RP
Guardians
- Gabriel Arias, IF
- Connor Brogdon, RP
- Joey Cantillo, SP/RP
- Matt Festa, RP
- Nolan Jones, OF
- Brayan Rocchio, IF
Mariners
- Eduard Bazardo, RP
- Cooper Criswell, RP
- Casey Legumina, RP
- Miles Mastrobuoni, IF/OF
- Luke Raley, 1B/OF
- Gabe Speier, RP
- Carlos Vargas, RP
Marlins
- Ronny Henriquez, RP
- Janson Junk, SP/RP
- Otto López, IF
- Christopher Morel, IF
- Tyler Phillips, RP
Mets
- Vidal Bruján, IF/OF
- Bryan Hudson, RP
- Ben Rortvedt, C
- Mark Vientos, IF
Nationals
- Luis García Jr., IF
- Richard Lovelady, RP
- Keibert Ruiz, C
- José Tena, IF
Orioles
- Blaze Alexander, IF
- Dietrich Enns, RP
- Rico Garcia, RP
- Jackson Kowar, RP
- Bryan Ramos, IF
- Colin Selby, RP
- Leody Taveras, OF
Padres
- Luis Campusano, C
- Bryce Johnson, OF
- Ron Marinaccio, RP
- Randy Vásquez, SP
- Matt Waldron, SP
Phillies
- Jonathan Bowlan, RP
- Rafael Marchán, C
- Zach Pop, RP
- Cristopher Sánchez, SP
- Garrett Stubbs, C
Pirates
- Joey Bart, C
- Oneil Cruz, OF
- Justin Lawrence, RP
- Yohan Ramírez, RP
Rangers
- Cole Winn, RP
Rays
- Jonathan Aranda, 1B
- Bryan Baker, RP
- Garrett Cleavinger, RP
- Yoendrys Gómez, SP/RP
- Manuel Rodríguez, RP
- Cole Sulser, RP
- Edwin Uceta, RP
- Ryan Vilade, IF/OF
Red Sox
- Jovani Morán, RP
Reds
- Sam Moll, RP
- Tony Santillan, RP
Rockies
- Jimmy Herget, SP/RP
- Edouard Julien, IF
- Jake McCarthy, OF
- Mickey Moniak, OF
- Keegan Thompson, SP/RP
Royals
- Bailey Falter, SP/RP
- Alex Lange, RP
- Nick Mears, RP
- Drew Waters, OF
Tigers
- Drew Anderson, SP/RP
- Jahmai Jones, IF/OF
- Zach McKinstry, IF/OF
Twins
- Anthony Banda, RP
- Kody Clemens, IF/OF
- Alex Jackson, C
- James Outman, OF
- Simeon Woods Richardson, SP
White Sox
- Luisangel Acuña, IF/OF
- Derek Hill, OF
- Anthony Kay, SP
- Korey Lee, C
- Curtis Mead, IF
- Everson Pereira, OF
- Lenyn Sosa, IF
- Miguel Vargas, IF
Yankees
- Osvaldo Bido, SP/RP
- Jorbit Vivas, IF
Photo courtesy of Brad Mills, Imagn Images
Johan Rojas Reportedly Tests Positive For Performance-Enhancing Drug
Phillies outfielder Johan Rojas has tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug, according to reporter Wilber Sánchez as well as Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman says Rojas will be appealing the ruling. Players face an 80-game suspension for a first-time positive test for PEDs. There has not yet been any formal announcement regarding Rojas from Major League Baseball or the Phillies.
Rojas, 25, has played for the Phillies at the major league level in each of the past three seasons. Broadly speaking, he has been a speed-and-defense guy who doesn’t provide much value from the batter’s box.
He has appeared in 250 games with 51 steals in 58 attempts. He has logged 1,714 innings in center field and has been credited with 22 Defensive Runs Saved and 18 Outs Above Average. But in 699 plate appearances, he has just six home runs and a .252/.294/.340 batting line. That translates to a 74 wRC+, indicating he has been 26% below league average as a hitter in his career overall.
Despite his skills, the lack of offense cut into his playing time with the Phillies. He was essentially an everyday center fielder in 2024, appearing in 120 contests. He held that job for part of the 2025 season but the Phils acquired Harrison Bader at the deadline, which led to Rojas getting optioned to the minors for the final two months of the schedule.
Bader became a free agent at season’s end and eventually signed with the Giants but it didn’t seem as though the Phillies had Rojas as a prominent piece of their 2026 plans. It was reported pretty early in the offseason that he was available in trade talks as the Phils planned to give prospect Justin Crawford a shot at the center field job.
Rojas was likely going to be relegated to a fourth outfielder role. He also has an option remaining and could have been sent down for regular playing time at the Triple-A level. A suspension would cut into his ability to serve in either role. He can continue to play during the appeals process but it’s unclear if the Phils will keep using him in spring games, per Charlotte Varnes and Matt Gelb of The Athletic. He was going to participate in the World Baseball Classic with the Dominican Republic team but dropped out last week.
Although Rojas had fallen down the depth chart, it would be a notable loss for the Phillies if Rojas is ultimately suspended. Their roster is quite strong but the outfield looks like one of the weaker points. As mentioned, Crawford is going to get a shot at the center field job, despite having no major league experience yet. The Phils have plugged Adolis García into right field, hoping for a bounceback after two down years. Brandon Marsh is a decent left fielder but needs a platoon partner since he’s awful against lefties. Otto Kemp could be Marsh’s platoon partner, though he has far more experience as an infielder than as an outfielder.
Gabriel Rincones Jr. and Pedro León are also on the 40-man roster. Both have options and are lined up to start the season in the minors. Rincones hasn’t yet made his major league debut and The Athletic notes that he is currently not playing due to ongoing knee problems. León is a waiver claimee who has just seven big league games under his belt. Bryan De La Cruz, who slashed .191/.240/.213 in limited action last year, is in camp as a non-roster invitee.
It’s not an especially strong group on the whole and losing Rojas would thin it out further. If the Phils want to add before Opening Day, guys like Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen are currently free agents. Some other guys will also shake loose in the coming weeks as teams make their final roster decisions when spring training winds down.
Photo courtesy of Kelley L Cox, Imagn Images
Tigers Owner Christopher Ilitch Discusses Team’s Spending
Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch recently spoke to members of the media, including Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic, about various subjects related to the team. Fans are encouraged to check out the full interview to get all the details. This post will focus in on the quotes related to the club’s payroll and the competitive balance tax.
Detroit just wrapped up a fairly aggressive offseason, which involved a couple of late signings, as they landed Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander in February. Verlander’s deal was fairly modest, with $11MM of the $13MM guarantee being deferred into next decade. The Valdez deal also had some deferrals in it but was still quite a commitment, with a sticker price of $115MM over three years.
“It’s really to win, and it’s to give back,” Ilitch said of adding those notable deals to the payroll. “What we’re doing in Detroit and Michigan — it’s for fans, really, at the end of the day. I’m really motivated to build a winning, championship-caliber organization for Tigers fans.”
The Tigers are poised to set a new high water mark in terms of payroll, as seen in the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Back in 2016 and 2017, the payroll was just under $200MM. That was when Christopher’s father Michael was still running the club. Michael passed away in February of 2017, which is when Christopher inherited the throne.
That 2017 season turned into a big bust for the Tigers. They sold off veteran players that summer, sending J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Verlander out of town. They then entered a lengthy rebuilding period with payrolls way down from that 2016-17 peak. The Tigers finally returned to contention more recently, making the playoffs in both 2024 and 2025.
Despite opening that new competitive window, the club has stayed somewhat conservative, at least until recently. They mostly signed free agents to one-year deals going into the 2025 season. The lone exception was a two-year deal for Jack Flaherty, and even that had an opt-out halfway through. Their 2025 trade deadline was also relatively timid; they mostly picked up complementary depth pieces, as opposed to true difference-makers.
Even the 2025-26 season seemed like it was going to be more of the same until the Valdez and Verlander deals pushed them to a new level. Cot’s projects them for $206MM in terms of pure payroll. The calculations of RosterResource are even higher, with a projected payroll of $217MM. Either would be a new franchise record.
The spending has also pushed the club near the $244MM base threshold of the competitive balance tax. Cot’s projects them at $241MM with RosterResource higher by about half a million. Ilitch was asked if he is willing to push the club over the line.
“Scott and I talked about that,” Ilitch said, referring to president of baseball operations Scott Harris. “I think the most important thing to me and to him is to ensure that we give our organization, our team and our players the best chance for success. So, based on the team that we have, I leave it to Scott to decide if he wants to add. And if he does, that’s really not an issue.”
While that’s not a firm declaration that the club is willing to pay the tax, Ilitch didn’t close the door on the possibility either. That’s likely encouraging for fans of the club, as it would be difficult for the Tigers to make in-season additions otherwise. Since they are already so close to the tax line, Harris would have almost no wiggle room for deadline deals if there was a strong club policy against paying the tax.
The Tigers have a strong chance to make some noise in 2026. They have Tarik Skubal under club control for one more year. He’s obviously won the American League Cy Young Award in each of the past two seasons, and coupling him with Valdez is a major boon, particularly if they go on a deep run in the postseason, when teams usually lean harder on their top arms. It’s possible Skubal will sign with another club next offseason, leaving the 2026 season as the Tigers’ final chance to take advantage of having him on the roster.
While every club has a payroll limit, it would be frustrating if the tax was some kind of uncrossable barrier this year, so perhaps it could be a cause for some optimism that paying the tax seems to be a possibility. The Tigers last paid the CBT in 2017.
Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images
MLB Announces Spring Breakout Tournament To Begin In 2027
Major League Baseball announced today that the Spring Breakout series will be played as a tournament in 2027 and 2028. It will be a single-elimination style with two champions crowned, one in the Grapefruit League and one in the Cactus League. The tournament is not starting in 2026 so as to not conflict with this year’s World Baseball Classic.
As of a few years ago, it was possible for fans to get a glimpse of top prospects during spring training, but only sporadically. Those players would often be in camp but would mostly be used as occasional substitutes for veteran players late in games.
In December of 2023, the league announced the Spring Breakout series. Each MLB club would field a squad entirely comprised of their top prospects and then play at least one game during spring training against another such squad. These were just exhibition contests but they gave fans a chance to tune into a specific game knowing that the top prospects would be participating.
After a few years, the league will be including this tournament format to add a competitive atmosphere. It will also give fans a chance to watch some prospects in a handful of games, depending on who advances.
The 2026 version of Spring Breakout, still without the tournament style, will take place from March 19th to 22nd. The full schedule can be found here. The full rosters for this year’s games will be announced on March 5th.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Tigers Announce Launch Of Detroit SportsNet
The Tigers announced the launch of Detroit SportsNet, an entity which will broadcast the club’s games this year as well as those of the NHL’s Red Wings starting with the 2026-27 season. Fans can subscribe for $19.99 per month or $189.99 for an entire year, which would allow them to stream both clubs. The games will also be on television in some form but full cable/satellite details aren’t yet available.
Up until recently, the Tigers were one of many MLB clubs to have a deal with Main Street Sports, previously known as Diamond Sports Group. That company, which operated the FanDuel Sports Network channels in 2025, has been going through tough financial times in recent years. They recently missed some payments to some MLB clubs. The nine teams who still had deals with the company, one of which was the Tigers, terminated their deals in January.
Of those nine, six of them quickly pivoted to having Major League Baseball handling their broadcasts. The Tigers, Angels and Braves were the three left up in the air. Atlanta recently launched their own regional sports network (RSN) called BravesVision.
On the surface, this appears to be the Tigers essentially going the MLB route. The club announcement today says that Detroit SportsNet will be “Powered by MLB.” Customers will be able to stream games through the MLB app. The one element that seems to make this a bit more unique is that the Red Wings are involved, a logical pairing since the Ilitch family owns both clubs.
Down the line, it will be interesting to see if this leads to a significant difference in the revenue brought in. Several teams have ended up with MLB after the collapse of an RSN deal. This route can sometimes lead to more viewers as it allows clubs to offer direct-to-customer streaming with no blackouts, but it can also lead to less revenue overall. Travis Sawchik of MLB.com reports that teams in this bucket get about 50% less than before, on average. As of a few years ago, the Tigers were getting about $60MM from their RSN deal. Having the Red Wings and Tigers in the same package could lead to more subscribers but the revenues will also presumably be split.
The Tigers have had a few notable financial developments this winter. In addition to this RSN situation, they also saw Tarik Skubal file an arbitration number far higher than anyone expected. He ended up winning his hearing and will make $32MM this year, $13MM more than the club’s $19MM filing figure.
Despite the uncertainty of the RSN situation and Skubal’s big raise, the team still spent aggressively this winter. They signed a number of free agents, most notably giving a $115MM guarantee to left-hander Framber Valdez. They are projected to set a new franchise record in terms of payroll and the competitive balance tax.
The broadcasts will seemingly be fairly unchanged compared to previous seasons, with the on-air talent expected to return. Details on the specific television channels carrying the games will be revealed in the future. It’s not yet clear which app will be used to access Red Wings games.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Latest On Mets, Freddy Peralta
The Mets and right-hander Freddy Peralta still haven’t had any serious extension talks, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The report suggests the talks will likely ramp up at some point but the two sides will likely have different priorities. President of baseball operations David Stearns has shown a preference for short-term agreements with pitchers but Peralta tells Rosenthal he would prefer to sign a long-term pact.
Almost as soon as the Mets acquired Peralta in January, speculation began about the club potentially signing him to an extension. Stearns already traded for and extended Peralta once, when he was with the Brewers. Now Peralta is just one season away from that extension ending, as he’s slated for free agency after the 2026 campaign.
Despite the logic, it was quickly reported after the trade that the Mets wouldn’t be rushing anything. They planned to let Peralta get comfortable with his new club for a while. That means it’s not really too surprising that the Mets haven’t yet made a hard push. Some players prefer not to negotiate contracts during the season, though it’s unclear if Peralta has any such preferences.
Whenever talks do get more serious, it’s notable that Peralta and the Mets are potentially starting out with different goals. “I would prefer to go long and make sure I’m going to be in the place where I want to finish my career,” Peralta says to Rosenthal.
That’s in contrast with the general approach of Stearns as a baseball operations leader. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, he has avoided long-term deals for pitchers, both during his time with the Brewers and now with the Mets. He did give five-year extensions to Peralta and Aaron Ashby during is time in Milwaukee, but those deals were for pitchers in their mid-20s. Other than those two early-career extensions, he hasn’t signed a pitcher to a deal longer than three years. Even though he’s now working with one of the largest payrolls in the league, Sean Manaea‘s $75MM deal is the largest guarantee Stearns has given to a pitcher. Rosenthal mentions that the Mets did offer a 12-year deal to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that was a special case since he was only 25 years old at the time.
Peralta will turn 30 in June and will therefore be going into his age-31 season when he is a free agent. Getting a lengthy deal at that age should be possible for Peralta if he has another strong season. Last offseason, Max Fried got an eight-year deal going into his age-31 campaign. The prior winter, Aaron Nola got seven years ahead of his age-31 season. Dylan Cease is going into his age-30 season, so he is a year younger than Peralta will be in that sense, but his birthday is in December. Peralta’s birthday is in June, so it will only really be a difference of about six months.
In terms of the guarantees, Fried got $218MM, Cease got $210MM and Nola got $172MM. Cease’s deal had notable deferrals, putting the net present value in the $180-185MM range. Peralta has an argument to get into that range next winter, especially when comparing him to Cease.
Over the past five seasons, Peralta has thrown 738 1/3 innings with a 3.30 earned run average, 29.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. In that same span, Cease took on a bigger workload of 884 innings but a higher ERA of 3.72. Cease’s 29.7% strikeout rate was a near match for Peralta’s, with Cease having a higher walk rate of 9.7%. Peralta’s 37.7% ground ball rate was marginally higher than Cease’s 37% clip.
If Peralta is looking to get something resembling the Cease deal, Stearns would have to go to new territory to keep him with the Mets. A deal in that range would require Stearns to more than double his previous high water marks, both in terms of length and guarantee. Perhaps he is willing to buck his previous tendencies since he clearly loves Peralta.
Peralta would be taking on some risk in not signing now, as it’s always possible for a pitcher to get hurt. Perhaps there’s some middle ground that could work for both parties now, where Peralta doesn’t fully max out his earnings by going to free agency next winter, but still locks in a really significant guarantee.
Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images