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2025 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

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The 2024 regular season is now complete, which also means that the details of the upcoming draft lottery are now locked in. Carlos Collazo of Baseball America laid out all the details in a post this morning.

In an effort to reduce tanking, the Players Association pushed for a lottery in the most recent collective bargaining agreement. Starting with the 2023 draft, the top six picks were determined by a lottery held at the Winter Meetings, with each club that misses the postseason having a shot at the top pick. Teams with worse records still have the best odds of getting the top picks, but nothing is guaranteed. One year ago, the Guardians won the top pick despite having just a 2% chance of doing so, eventually using that pick on second baseman Travis Bazzana. If two teams have the same record, their record in the previous season serves as a tiebreaker.

The three teams with the worst records usually have the same odds of getting the top pick but there’s a notable exception. To discourage teams from undergoing yearslong rebuilds, the lottery rules limit how often a club can receive a lottery pick. Revenue-sharing recipients can’t have lottery picks more than two years in a row while other clubs can’t have lottery picks in consecutive years.

Since the White Sox aren’t a revenue-sharing recipient and had a lottery pick in 2024, the rules state that they can’t pick higher than 10th in 2025. That’s despite a dismal 121-loss season that was easily the worst in baseball. The Athletics are a revenue-sharing club but had lottery picks in both 2023 and 2024, meaning they can’t pick higher than 11th next year.

Those clubs will still have balls in the lottery but they will be ignored if they win, which actually happened last year. Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, the Nationals would have secured the first overall pick in 2024 but they were ineligible due to having a lottery pick in 2023. The draw was redone, which is when the Guardians got the top pick.

Here are the lottery clubs and their odds of getting the top overall pick, adjusted to account for the fact that the White Sox and A’s aren’t eligible:

  1. Rockies (61-101): 22.45%
  2. Marlins (62-100): 22.45%
  3. Angels (63-99): 17.96%
  4. Nationals (71-91): 10.2%
  5. Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48%
  6. Pirates (76-86): 5.31%
  7. Reds (77-85): 3.67%
  8. Rangers (78-84): 2.45%
  9. Giants (80-82): 1.9%
  10. White Sox (41-121): Ineligible
  11. A’s (69-93): Ineligible
  12. Rays (80-82): 1.5%
  13. Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%
  14. Twins (82-80): 1.09%
  15. Cardinals (83-79): 0.82%
  16. Cubs (83-79): 0.68%
  17. Mariners (85-77): 0.54%
  18. Diamondbacks (89-73): 0.27%

Playoff teams will be sorted based on their postseason results. Teams that lose in the early rounds pick ahead of those that advance further. Teams that are eliminated in the same round are separated first by revenue-sharing status, with recipients picking earlier, and then in reverse order of regular season record. These rules only impact the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, teams pick in reverse order of standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Teams that surpass the third tier of the competitive balance tax ($277MM in 2024) have their top pick moved back ten spots. If such a club gets a top six pick, then that penalty is applied to their second-highest pick instead. That won’t be a factor this year. Per RosterResource, the three clubs projected to be over that CBT line are the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers. Atlanta appears to be right on the line but general manager Alex Anthopoulos has said the club stayed under, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal Constitution on X. Regardless, all those clubs made the postseason and won’t be in the lottery.

Justin Verlander Planning To Pitch In 2025

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It was a frustrating season for Justin Verlander but he doesn’t plan on it being his last. He told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that he plans on pitching again in 2025. “I think I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise,” Verlander said. “This year was a tough year. Learned a lot from it.”

Verlander was only able to make 17 starts and log 90 1/3 innings this year. He started the year on the injured list due to some shoulder inflammation, though he was reinstated in the middle of April. After 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 21.3% strikeout rate, he went back on the IL due to neck discomfort, an injury that perhaps he never really recovered from. He was reinstated from the IL in August but opined last month that he may have returned too quickly. He reiterated that sentiment this week.

“I’ve talked to you guys about how I was feeling coming back and how I needed to push the issue a bit. Kind of a weird injury in the neck. Tried as best I could to get out there and be an asset to help this team in October but wasn’t able to do it.”

Verlander made seven more starts in August and September but his strikeout rate was just 14.6% in that time as he allowed 30 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That gave him an 8.10 ERA in that stretch and bumped his season-long ERA to 5.48, the highest of his career apart from a two-start debut back in 2005. With those poor results, the Astros decided to leave him off their postseason roster. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown started the club’s two games against the Tigers but Houston lost both, ending their season prior to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

“Obviously, wasn’t pitching well enough to be a part of this series,” Verlander said. “But having an offseason to kind of get things right, I definitely feel like I want to continue to pitch and compete. And I’m not ready to step away yet.”

Despite the rough campaign, Verlander is determined to keep going, which isn’t surprising. Way back in 2018, he told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that he wanted to pitch until he was 45 if he could. He is still a few years away from that marker, as he is set to turn 42 in February.

Perhaps the health issues give him an explanation for his rough results, but increased injury woes are to be expected for a player pushing his career to great lengths. Keeping his body in a place where he can maximize his results will be a challenge but one that Verlander is surely going to tackle as best as he can.

It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was still posting elite results. Though he missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he had an incredible bounce back in 2022. At the age of 39 and after missing almost two full years, he tossed 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

He won that year’s American League Cy Young award and went into free agency on a strong note. He was able to secure a two-year deal with a $43.33MM annual salary from the Mets, as well as a conditional player option for 2025. The first year of the deal went fine for Verlander personally, though the Mets fell out of contention and dealt him back to Houston at the deadline. He finished 2023 with a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts, despite his strikeout rate falling to 21.5%.

As mentioned, the results backed up here in 2024. The injuries preventing him from unlocking the $35MM player option, as he needed to toss 140 innings this year but finished well short of that. That means he is slated to return to the open market in a few weeks.

He will naturally have significantly less earning power than he did two years ago, both on account of his increased age and worse platform season, but there should still be a notable deal for him out there. Zack Greinke got $8.5MM from the Royals for 2023, his age-39 season. He secured that on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he tossed 137 innings with a 3.68 ERA but a 12.5% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.73 in 2023 but was still able to secure an $11MM guarantee from the Cardinals for 2024, his age-37 season. Corey Kluber got a $10MM guarantee from the Red Sox for 2023, his age-37 season, despite plenty of notable health concerns in prior seasons.

Verlander is going into his age-42 season and will be older than all of those pitchers were when those deals were signed, but he also has a more impressive overall track record and plenty of recent success he can point to. For a closer age comparison, Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023, his age-43 season. He got that after tossing 124 1/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA the year prior. That’s a better platform year than what Verlander is current taking to free agency but Hill’s overall résumé can’t match up to Verlander’s.

In short, there will be opportunities available to Verlander, the question will be where. He has spent most of his recent career with the Astros, with that brief stint with the Mets the notable exception. Perhaps he and the club will reunite again, as they could use some rotation help. As of now, their 2025 starting pitching group projects to include Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. They could fill out that group with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France, though those pitchers are currently unknown quantities after missing most or all of 2024 while recovering from surgeries.

Per RosterResource, the Astros project to be have a spending gap of more than $100MM between 2024 and 2025, both in terms of pure payroll and their competitive balance tax number. However, that gap is actually narrower when considering the full picture. The arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz have the Astros slated to pay over $58MM to a group headlined by Valdez and Kyle Tucker. A couple of non-tenders will knock that down a bit, but the club also plans to discuss a significant contract with impending free agent Alex Bregman. They also have a hole at first base that will need to be addressed somehow.

Given that the club has traded for Verlander a couple of times and also re-signed him in free agency twice, it’s probably fair to expect that they will work something out regardless of where the budget goes in the months to come, though it’s also possible they decide it’s time to go in a different direction. Wherever he ends up, Verlander will be looking to add to a body of work that already has him as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He has 262 wins, the most among active pitchers, while his 3,416 strikeouts are 10th on the all-time list.

Paul Blackburn Won’t Return In 2024

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The Mets defeated the Brewers yesterday and are now one win away from moving on to the National League Division series. But regardless of how deep they go in the postseason, right-hander Paul Blackburn won’t be an option for them. Manager Carlos Mendoza informed reporters that the righty is done for the year, with Tim Healey of Newsday among those to relay the news on X.

Blackburn was acquired from the Athletics prior to this year’s deadline. The Mets had some injuries in their rotation, with Christian Scott and Kodai Senga both on the shelf, so they sent prospect Kade Morris to Oakland to bring Blackburn aboard.

Unfortunately, the trade hasn’t worked out for them so far. Blackburn made five starts with a 5.18 earned run average before landing on the 15-day injured list due to a right hand bruise suffered when he was hit by a comebacker. While still on the IL, it was reported a couple of weeks ago that he was dealing with a spinal fluid leak in his back. That sounded pretty grim but the club still had some hope of him making a return.

With today’s update, however, that won’t happen. It’s not a devastating blow to the Mets at this point, as the extra off-days in the playoffs and the do-or-die nature of the circumstances lead to smaller starting rotations. The Mets have Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino as their current top three, with David Peterson and Tylor Megill also around as possible options. Megill isn’t on the Wild Card roster but could be utilized in the coming weeks, if needed.

Senga could perhaps be an option down the line as well but likely wouldn’t be counted on for bulk. He suffered a capsule strain in his shoulder during spring training and didn’t make his season debut until July. In his first start back, he suffered a left calf strain and went right back on the injured list. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen session earlier this week, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. That could lead to him rejoining the club later in the month but he will probably be limited to short outings.

Turning back to Blackburn, the club could still reap some return on that trade as he can be retained via arbitration for one more season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $4.4MM next year. Since the start of 2022, Blackburn has thrown 290 1/3 innings with a 4.43 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.

He would be well worth that modest arbitration raise if the Mets expect him to be able to provide that kind of production next year. The club has a fairly wide open rotation in 2025, as both Quintana and Severino are slated for free agency. Manaea has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out he will certainly exercise as long as he’s still healthy in a few weeks. Scott recently underwent Tommy John surgery and could miss the whole season. José Buttó could return to a starting role but he’s having success in the bullpen, which could tempt the club to keep him there.

That’ll leave the club with a projected 2025 rotation of Senga, Megill and Peterson. Prospects like Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell have reached Triple-A but without success at that level yet. Given the number of available innings they have, tendering a contract to Blackburn makes plenty of sense. Even if the club pursues higher-upside pitchers in free agency and squeeze him out of the plans, Blackburn would have some trade value they could look to cash in.

Perry Minasian Discusses Angels’ Future

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Angels general manager Perry Minasian held an end-of-season press conference this week, with details provided by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Though the club is wrapping up another disappointing season, Minasian expressed confidence in what he believes to be a budding core and indicated the entire coaching staff will be returning next year.

The Halos finished 2024 with a record of 63-99. Despite plenty of challenging seasons in the club’s history, that was actually their worst performance ever by a notable margin. Prior to this year, the club’s worst record was a mark of 65-95 in 1980. This year’s struggles continued a dreary run for the club, as they haven’t made the postseason since 2014, the longest active drought in the league.

“As far as the season goes, very frustrating from a small-picture standpoint,” Minasian said. “Big picture, there are a lot of things to be excited about. I believe this is the type of year that we’ll look back at a year from now, two years from now, and say that was huge.” Per Bollinger, Minasian highlighted that the Diamondbacks only won 52 games in 2021 but were in the World Series two years later, while the Royals only had 56 wins in 2023 but are in the postseason this year.

Whether the Angels can mount a similar climb into contention remains to be seen. Minasian seems to be encouraged by the development of young players such as shortstop Zach Neto, catcher Logan O’Hoppe and first baseman Nolan Schanuel, as well as pitchers José Soriano, Jack Kochanowicz and Ben Joyce.

Those players all showed encouraging signs this year, to varying degrees. Neto hit 23 home runs and stole 30 bases. His defensive metrics were mixed, as he had 11 Defensive Runs Saved but -5 Outs Above Average, but he was still graded by FanGraphs as being worth 3.5 wins above replacement on the year. O’Hoppe provided offense around league average, with a 101 wRC+ on the year, though catchers are usually about 10 to 12% below par. His work behind the plate was also considered to be solid, leading to a 2.1 fWAR tally. Schanuel’s contributions were more modest. He drew walks at a strong 11.2% clip but only hit 13 homers and also had mixed reviews for his glovework, leading to 0.7 fWAR on the year.

On the pitching side of things, Kochanowicz made 11 starts with a 3.99 earned run average. His 9.4% strikeout rate was well below average but he limited walks to a tiny rate of 3.8% and forced opponents to put 57% of balls in play on the ground. Soriano tossed 113 innings, which was an achievement in and of itself after he missed so much time due to injuries. But the results were also good, as he had a 3.42 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 59.7% ground ball rate. Ben Joyce used his triple-digit velocity to throw 34 2/3 innings with a 2.08 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 58.9% ground ball rate.

In addition to their solid results, those players are all cheap and controllable. None of those six have reached three years of service time, meaning none of them are guaranteed to qualify for arbitration this winter. Soriano could perhaps qualify as a Super Two player, depending on where the cutoff will be. He is going into the winter at two years and 121 days, which is close to where the line has been in previous offseasons. Regardless of which side of the border Soriano is on, each of these players can be affordably controlled through at least 2028.

But even with contributions from those six, the club was still a disappointment in 2024, so improvements will be needed elsewhere. Perhaps that will come from other young players like Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Niko Kavadas, Christian Moore, Nelson Rada and others, but the club will also need to make some external additions, something that Minasian is aware of. “We definitely need more players,” he said. “There’s no secret there.”

It’s unclear at this point what kind of resources Minasian will have at his disposal for the winter, as he said he hasn’t yet discussed the 2025 payroll with owner Arte Moreno. The club did cut back on spending in 2024, winding up in the range of $176MM per the calculations of RosterResource. That was close to $40MM below the roughly $215MM they spent in 2023.

RR currently pegs the club at $109MM for 2025 but that’s not a complete picture of their situation. The club has 12 arbitration-eligible players, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting that group for a total of $37.6MM. Not every player in that group will be tendered a contract, but the Angels could be internally committed to the $140MM range already.

That would leave them some wiggle room if they were willing to carry forward a similar payroll to 2024, but it remains to be seen as to whether that will be the case after a 99-loss season. The club presumably took some revenue hits in terms of ticket sales, TV ratings and advertising in their first season of the post-Shohei Ohtani era.

Regardless of how the club handles its offseason, Minasian did reveal a bit about how he’s thinking about the club going forward. Notably, he wouldn’t commit to Anthony Rendon being the club’s starting third baseman nor even being on the roster.

“When Anthony has played, he hasn’t been productive,” Minasian said. “So he’s gonna have to come in and earn it. There’s no handouts. We’re starting to create some depth, where we have some versatile players that can do some different things, so the best players are gonna play, no doubt about it.” When asked if Rendon would continue to have a roster spot if things don’t turn around, he responded with: “That’s a great question. We’re going to look at everything. We’re going to look at what makes the best sense for this organization.”

Rendon’s struggles with the Angels are well documented at this point. He signed a seven-year, $245MM deal with the club going into 2020 but they haven’t seen much return on that investment. He was good in the first year of the deal, though that was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Over the four seasons since then, he has frequently missed time due to injury and only played 205 games. As Minasian said, he hasn’t done well even when on the field, having hit .231/.329/.336 for a wRC+ of 89 over those four campaigns. That includes a dismal line of .218/.307/.267 in 2024, when he only got into 57 contests.

Rendon is now 34 years old, turning 35 next June, and has two years left on his deal. He’ll make $38MM in each of those two years, leaving $76MM to be paid out. It’s not uncommon for a club to give up on a player with an underwater contract. The Angels themselves did it not too long ago by releasing Albert Pujols. However, while some fans may yearn for the same to happen with Rendon soon, it would be unprecedented for a club to eat this much money.

The largest guarantee still owed to a player at the time of his release was when the Red Sox cut Pablo Sandoval loose in July of 2017. At that point, he was still owed $18MM in each of the next two years, plus a $5MM buyout on his 2020 option. He was also still owed a little more than a third of his 2017 salary of $17MM. Matt Gelb of The Athletic recently pegged the total at $48.3MM of what Sandoval was still owed when he was released, which is barely half of what Rendon is still owed.

Whether the Angels want to break that record remains to be seen. They could perhaps have Luis Rengifo take over at third base, though he’s also an option to be the regular at second base or perhaps serve in a utility role. Moore is a second baseman has already reached Double-A and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club quickly promote him, since they did the same with guys like Neto, Schanuel and Dana. Matthew Lugo, acquired in the Luis García trade, had a strong year in the minors. He has reached Triple-A and can play all over the infield, though he has some time in the outfield as well.

Perhaps there will come a time when the club decides it would rather dedicate playing time to those guys rather than continuing to run Rendon out onto the field. The designated hitter spot might be used by Mike Trout with some regularity as the club tries to stave off his own injury troubles. Offseason acquisitions could further crowd the roster. Rendon could put together a nice stretch of health and flip the narrative but it seems his contract is going to guarantee him any opportunities.

Diamond Sports Group Planning To Cut Ties With 11 MLB Clubs

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Diamond Sports Group said in court today that it plans to broadcast just one MLB club next year, the Braves, per reporting from Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The company, which owns the Bally Sports Networks, also had deals with the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Rays but plans on walking away from those. As Drellich notes, as part of the company’s ongoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, they can accept and reject contracts though the measures have to be approved by the court. The Brewers, Guardians, Twins and Rangers had one-year deals with Diamond for 2024. Those 11 clubs will now have to renegotiate new deals with Diamond or find other broadcasting arrangements.

Drellich provides some more specifics on X, noting that it’s more complicated than Diamond simply abandoning these 11 clubs, but that seems to be the company’s goal regardless. Alden González of ESPN adds some more details, noting that a confirmation hearing has been set for November 14 and 15 in Houston. The Marlins and Diamond have mutual interest in working out a new deal, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The Angels are working on a new deal with Diamond, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Per Drellich, league representatives said they were “sandbagged” by the news. “We have no information about what is being done,” said Jim Bromley, lawyer for MLB. “We’ve had no opportunity to review and now we’re in front of the court and being asked to make our comments.”

The ongoing financial situation of Diamond Sports Group has been a significant part of baseball’s economic landscape for a long time and this could prove to be a major development as part of that narrative. Largely due to cord cutting, the regional sports network model has been gradually collapsing in recent history. In the 2022-23 offseason, reports emerged that Diamond was in rough shape financially and the company filed for bankruptcy before the 2023 MLB season began.

They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during that 2023 campaign. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs and continued those broadcasts through this year. Now it seems like the company is continuing down this path but with an even more aggressive severing of their existing ties to Major League Baseball.

This is bound to have short-term effects on clubs and players. These contracts have been sources of significant revenue for clubs, as MLBTR covered earlier this year. The 11 teams that Diamond plans to cut ties with were previously receiving between $33MM (Brewers) and $125MM (Angels) on an annual basis. Per reporting in April, the Padres were set to receive about $60MM in 2023 before their deal with Diamond collapsed. The league reportedly covered about 80% of those fees last year but didn’t plan to do so in 2024 and beyond.

Uncertainty around broadcast revenue seemingly played a major role in the 2023-24 offseason, which was disappointing for players. Teams like the Padres, Rangers, Twins and others were either cutting payroll or not increasing it as much as had previously been expected, with the TV situation often being used as justification. This appeared to play a role in various free agents not finding markets as strong as they had anticipated and many of them lingered unsigned into the early months of 2024 and/or signed for deals well below projections. It seems fair to expect that similar narratives could emerge in the coming winter.

Per González, a company source says that Diamond is still hoping to sign new deals with the 11 clubs being cut out today. However, that would presumably involve reduce fee payments, such as those received by the Guardians, Twins and Rangers this year. As mentioned up top, the Marlins and Angels seem to expect to continue their relationship with Diamond/Bally in 2025, though negotiating new deals may take some time.

In the long-term picture, MLB might be happy to be further cutting ties with Diamond. They have continually expressed skepticism about the company’s plans to stay afloat. Diamond has tried various methods of refinancing, including signing a streaming deal with Amazon, but the league hasn’t seemed convinced that any of the company’s plans would lead to long-term stability.

As mentioned, the league has already started selling some games to fans in direct-to-customer fashion. Commissioner Rob Manfred has aspirations of marketing a digital streaming package consisting of several MLB teams, which fans could watch without blackout restrictions. MLB.TV already exists and allows fans to watch most games, but the RSN deals lead to certain teams being blacked out in the areas covered by those deals.

Having less commitment with Diamond going forward will increase the viability of that streaming plan over the years to come. However, as mentioned, less TV revenue figures to have a sizeable impact on the short-term economics of the game. This will lead to ripple effects throughout the upcoming offseason and will likely be worrisome for certain players hitting the open market in the coming weeks. New deals could be negotiated between now and the 2025 season, which could put some money back on the table, though likely less than in previous years.

There is also the matter of the fan experience, as there were times in 2024 where the Braves were not available on TV to some customers during a dispute between Bally’s and Comcast. For fans of these 11 clubs today, they will have to keep an eye on the proceedings to determine if their favorite club will still be accessed in the ways they are accustomed to or if they will have to switch to some new broadcast model.

Twins Part Ways With Four Coaches

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Oct. 2: In addition to Popkins, the Twins announced that assistant hitting coaches Rudy Hernandez and Derek Shoman will not return to the staff next season. Infield coach/assistant bench coach Tony Diaz also will not return to next year’s staff. The rest of the group is expected to return.

Oct. 1: The Twins have informed hitting coach David Popkins that he won’t back next season, per a report from Dan Hayes of The Athletic. His contract just ended with the conclusion of the 2024 season and will not be renewed.

Popkins has been the club’s hitting coach for the past three years, getting hired prior to the 2022 campaign. The first of those seasons saw the club finish 78-84, though that wasn’t really on the offense. The club hit a collective .248/.317/.401 for a wRC+ of 106, 10th best in the majors. 2023 was more successful, as the club went 87-75 and won the American League Central. Their hitters collectively slashed .243/.326/.428 for a 108 wRC+, tied for sixth in the majors.

For a long time, it seemed like 2024 was going to be another successful campaign for the Twins. They were in playoff position for most of the season but collapsed at the end, going 9-18 in the month of September and missing out on the postseason.

The team was still strong at the plate overall this year, with a line of .246/.315/.411 and a 107 wRC+ that was ninth in the league. That includes a dismal .218/.285/.338 line and 78 wRC+ in September as the club’s season slipped away from them.

It’s always tough to separate the influence of a coach from the performances of the players. Over the course of the three years where Popkins has been the hitting coach, most of the results have been good, though the most recent stretch of play obviously leaves a bad taste. Whether one wants to blame Popkins or not would be a matter of debate. Key players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and others missed significant time with injuries this year and were either off the field or perhaps not playing at 100% health during the September swoon. Regardless, it seems the club has decided to go in a different direction for 2025.

MLBTR Podcast: Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Giants firing president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and giving the job to Buster Posey (1:15)
  • The Cardinals will replace president of baseball operations John Mozeliak with Chaim Bloom after 2025 (15:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Brewers Owner Discusses Upcoming Offseason

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The Brewers still have business to attend to here in 2024, as they won the National League Central. They naturally still have aspirations of continuing to win through October and nabbing a World Series title. But the offseason is going to start in a few weeks regardless of what happens in the playoffs and plans have to be made. Owner Mark Attanasio was asked about some of the questions facing the club with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporting on his responses. Most notably, Attanasio didn’t offer much insight on the club’s planned payroll for next year while downplaying the chances of the club re-signing shortstop Willy Adames.

On the payroll side of things, Attanasio didn’t really tip his hand. While the club’s strong performance this year has led to increased ticket revenue and strong TV ratings, the owner suggested that it may end up a wash with the club receiving less revenue sharing.

“We have a budget every year,” Attanasio said. “Revenue isn’t just ticket revenue; it (includes) beverage and sponsorships, all of which are strong. (There’s) also revenue sharing, which we’ve talked about a lot. The way that the revenue sharing model works, everybody puts their money in the pot and then it gets recalibrated. The more money you make on a comparative basis, the less revenue sharing you get.”

Attanasio also went on to highlight that the club will face some uncertainty in terms of their TV revenues. “We’ve got local media – some would say challenges, but I would say opportunities – with the challenges at Diamond (Sports Group) and Bally’s. If you look to the medium term and not just the short term, I look at that as opportunities because of the ability to control our digital rights, which are very valuable. And that may occasion a step back next year.” Per Hogg, Attanasio clarified that “a step back” meant less TV revenue coming in, not necessarily less money going out to the player payroll.

Diamond has been in a limbo state for quite some time now. Reports emerged in the 2022-23 offseason that the company, which owns Bally Sports networks, was in a bad financial position. The company filed for bankruptcy just before the 2023 season kicked off but has since tried to stay afloat. It’s not yet clear if their efforts to continue operating will ultimately be successful.

Though the company has continued to put together broadcasts for some clubs, their total portfolio has shifted. They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks in 2023. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs. The Brewers have been fairly untouched so far but Hogg’s piece notes that their deal with Diamond expires after the 2024 season, making their 2025 TV revenue a big unknown at this point.

There are many moving parts between the gate revenue, uncertainty with the broadcast situation and the revenue sharing. Since the club continues to perform well on the field but is facing those questions about the business side of things, perhaps it’s fair to expect that the payroll won’t be wildly shifting in either direction.

The club’s payroll has generally fallen in the middle of the league, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Attanasio purchased the club in 2005 and the club has never been higher than 13th in terms of player spending since then. Since the pandemic, the Brewers have been in the range of 19th to 22nd among the 30 clubs in the majors. This year, they were 22nd with an Opening Day budget of $104MM.

Despite those financial limitations, there has been a lot of on-field success. This is the sixth time in the past seven years that Milwaukee has cracked the postseason, missing by just a single game in 2022.

Per RosterResource, the club only has $39MM committed to next year’s roster, though that number doesn’t really reflect the offseason picture. Rhys Hoskins has an $18MM player option that he will surely trigger on the heels of a down year. There’s a $4MM buyout, so he’ll add $14MM to the budget by sticking around for next year. The club will surely pick up club options on Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Colin Rea, adding another $21.25MM.

That would get the total number up to the $75MM range, before accounting for arbitration raises. Aaron Civale is making $4.9MM this year and should get a bump of a few million. Hoby Milner and Joel Payamps each made around $2MM this year and will get bumps. William Contreras will qualify for the first time and should be able to get a notable raise with his strong career to date. Players like Jake Bauers, Bryse Wilson, Eric Haase, Trevor Megill and Nick Mears are also in line for arb raises.

Depending on which of those players are tendered contracts and where the salaries ultimately end up, the Brewers could wind up fairly close to this year’s $104MM payroll before even making any offseason moves. Some trades could always free up some cash, but the club might not have a lot of powder dry to bring back Adames, which Attanasio was frank about.

“He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”

Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but has had a strong bounce back this year. He hit 32 home runs and drew walks in 10.8% of his plate appearances. His .251/.331/.462 line translated to a 119 wRC+, indicating he was 19% above league average at the plate overall. He also stole 21 bases in 25 tries. His defensive reviews weren’t as strong as previous years, with -16 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average, though his career tallies are still positive in both of those metrics. Even with the diminished grades for his glovework, FanGraphs still considered him to be worth 4.8 wins above replacement on the year.

As a solidly above average shortstop going into his age-29 season, his free agency has a lot of comparables to Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. All three of them were in similar positions as they hit the open market. Báez and Story each got $140MM over six years while Swanson got $177MM over seven.

The Brewers have only once given out a contract anywhere near that range, with the extension for Christian Yelich getting to $188.5MM. Apart from that, the largest contract in franchise history was $105MM for Ryan Braun back in 2011, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Given the club’s track record and current budgetary question marks, and Attanasio’s straightforward comments, the odds of Adames returning to Milwaukee seem to be quite low. Assuming that comes to pass, they will recoup draft pick compensation by making him a qualifying offer, which he will reject.

The club has a couple of in-house options to cover for Adames, as both Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz came up as shortstops in the minors. They have posted strong defensive grades primarily at second and third base this year respectively and either could be a candidate to move back to short going forward. Neither has qualified for arbitration yet, so it would be a low-cost solution to Adames’ departure if the club goes that route. They would then have to address either second or third base but could find internal solutions for that issue as well. The club has toyed with Sal Frelick being moved to third as a solution to its crowded outfield picture, though injuries have allowed him to stay in the outfield for now. Prospect Tyler Black is also a possibility at the hot corner going forward.

There will be many questions to be answered in the weeks and months to come. For now, the club will be focused on winning the games in front of them, which could also impact the upcoming winter. A lengthy playoff run would lead to more gate and TV revenue, which could perhaps impact how the front office and ownership answer some of these questions.

Giants To Replace General Manager Pete Putila

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The Giants held a press conference today to allow new new president of baseball operations Buster Posey to address the media. During that session, Posey announced that general manager Pete Putila will be given a new role and the franchise will be hiring a new GM. Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X. Chairman Greg Johnson reported at the conference that Posey will retain his seat on the club’s ownership board and has a three-year contract to serve as the POBO (X links from Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic).

Putila was hired as the club’s general manager going into the 2023 season, working under then-president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. He got that gig on the heels of a long run with the Astros. He started with Houston as an intern in 2011, eventually moving up to director of player development and then assistant general manager before jumping to the Giants.

It’s difficult to assign blame and/or credit to someone in Putila’s shoes, who had a notable position on the Giants’ decision-making pyramid for the past two years, but on a staff that involved input from dozens of people. Regardless, it’s not terribly surprising that Posey is looking to find his own lieutenant, as opposed to just inheriting one from the previous regime.

Posey is coming into his gig in fairly unusual circumstances. Many of the people who lead baseball operations departments work their way up the ladder through scouting or analytics channels, gradually getting promotions and moving to more important positions. Posey took a different route, as he was on the field as a player as recently as 2021. Less than a year after announcing his retirement in November of 2021, it was announced in September of 2022 that Posey was joining the club’s ownership board.

At that time, Posey said that he wasn’t “taking on any type of front office role” and that it would be more “hey, let me know where I can help and I’ll help there” approach with his new position. It seems that his role and influence have grown in the past two years. It was reported a couple of weeks back that Posey took a leading role in the Matt Chapman extension negotiations and now he has been given the POBO role with a three-year contract.

Though the club clearly has lots of faith in Posey and he surely has confidence in his own abilities to handle this role, it’s possible that his second-in-command could play a notable role in helping him deal with any parts of the job that he hasn’t fully tackled yet. As such, he probably wants to pick someone that he feels best suits that particular requirement or simply someone that he has a good working relationship with.

For Putila, it seems like he will remain with the club for now but in a changed role of some kind. Prior to joining the Giants, he had interest from other front offices. He was a candidate for Pittsburgh’s general manager vacancy that eventually went to Ben Cherington, for instance. If he has interest for other such vacancies going forward, there would be little standing in the way of him pursuing those now. Clubs generally allow their employees to interview for positions with other teams as long as a promotion is involved, so Putila shouldn’t have any obstacles if another club views him as a possible future GM or POBO.

Chris Sale Not On Braves’ Wild Card Roster

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The Braves announced their roster for the Wild Card series today and it does not include left-hander Chris Sale. The club is going with an even split of 13 pitchers and position players, the latter group including two catchers, five infielders and six outfielders.

Sale had an excellent bounceback season in 2024 and could be awarded a Cy Young trophy in a few weeks, but the campaign ended on a frustrating note. He hasn’t taken the mound since September 19 against the Reds. In that outing, Sale’s velocity was down and he hasn’t pitched since. Up until yesterday, it seemed as though the club was just holding Sale to see if they would need him for a do-or-die game, otherwise hoping to hold him back for the first game of the Wild Card round.

Going into yesterday’s double-header, which was necessitated after two midweek games between the Mets and Atlanta were delayed by Hurricane Helene, both clubs needed a victory to secure a playoff spot. Spencer Schwellenbach started Game 1, which the Mets went on to win 8-7. It was expected that Sale would take the ball for the second contest but the club then announced that Sale had been scratched with back spasms. The issue had flared up during that start against the Reds and he kept hoping to be able to return to the mound but it didn’t improve and then worsened on Sunday night, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com (X links).

Based on Sale being left off the Wild Card roster, it can be assumed that the club doesn’t expect him to be game ready in the next few days. As mentioned, he is having a great season and undoubtedly would have been a part of their plans if he were healthy. He made 29 starts this year with a 2.38 earned run average, 32.1% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.

Without Sale, the club will have to get creative to survive against the Padres. Due to the aforementioned double-header situation, they used a lot of arms yesterday. Schwellenbach started the first game and Grant Holmes the second. Neither of those pitchers are on the roster either, which makes sense since they probably wouldn’t be available for a few days anyway.

Max Fried and Reynaldo López will likely start game two and three respectively, as they would be on normal rest for those contests following their last regular season outings. Charlie Morton started on Sunday and might not be available early in the series, though he is on the roster.

For today, the club may be looking to get some innings out of Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver. Neither has been a huge part of the club’s performance of late but they may need to step up while the bullpen is taxed and the club can’t turn to Sale, Schwellenbach or Holmes. Elder posted a 6.52 ERA in the big leagues this year while frequently being optioned to the minors. He had a solid 3.73 ERA in Triple-A this year but hasn’t pitched for the big league club since August 6.

Smith-Shawver only pitched once in the majors this year, a spot start of 4 1/3 innings in May. He has a 4.85 ERA in Triple-A on the year, though he finished somewhat strong with a 3.68 ERA over his last seven starts.

In addition to Elder and Smith-Shawver, Atlanta’s playoff roster consists of Fried, Lopez, Morton, Aaron Bummer, Jesse Chavez, Daysbel Hernández, Raisel Iglesias, Luke Jackson, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee. On the position player side, they have catchers Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud, infielders Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Whit Merrifield, Matt Olson and Gio Urshela, as well as outfielders Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Ramón Laureano, Marcell Ozuna, Jorge Soler and Eli White.

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