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Mariners, Nationals, Mets Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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Veteran first baseman appears to be drawing a lot of interest as a free agent. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Nationals and Mets are all engaged with him. The connections to the Yankees and Giants have been previously covered at MLBTR, as well as interest from the Tigers.

Coming into the winter, the free agent market for first basemen had various intriguing options, but their respective ages gave them different levels of earning power. As part of MLBTR’s annual ranking of the Top 50 Free Agents, Pete Alonso was the top first baseman. Now 30 years old, he was predicted for a five-year, $125MM deal. Christian Walker, who is going into his age-34 season, had a prediction of three years and $60MM. Goldschmidt, now 37, was predicted for $15MM on a one-year deal. Veterans like Justin Turner and Carlos Santana didn’t crack the list but should be in line for one-year deals as well.

Earlier today, the Astros cut out the middle of that market. Walker has reportedly agreed to sign with Houston on exactly the three-year, $60MM deal that MLBTR predicted. For clubs that are still looking for help at first base, there’s now a clear divide between the big-ticket option in Alonso, as well as several other more affordable possibilities. Alonso also rejected a qualifying offer, so he’s also tied to the associated penalties with signing such a player, which depend upon whether a club paid the competitive balance tax this year or is a revenue sharing recipient.

Regardless of how clubs feel about Alonso, some of them will just not be likely candidates to make that kind of a splash in free agency. For those that are looking to make a modest investment at first, Goldschmidt is an intriguing candidate.

As recently as 2022, Goldschmidt was one of the best players at the position. He won National League Most Valuable Player that year, hitting 35 home runs, drawing walks at a 12.1% clip and stealing seven bases. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a wRC+ of 175 and produced 6.8 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

But the last two years have been far less impressive. He had a .268/.363/.447 batting line and 122 wRC+ in 2023. In the most recent season, that was down to .245/.302/.414 and a 100 wRC+, exactly league average production. His 7.2% walk rate was the worst of his career. His 26.5% strikeout rate was a personal high, apart from his rookie debut way back in 2011.

That’s downward slope is obviously somewhat discouraging, but Goldy has a strong track record and at least finished strong in 2024. After hitting .230/.291/.373 for an 87 wRC+ in the first half, he posted a .271/.319/.480 line and 120 wRC+ in the second half. The Cardinals aren’t bringing him back as they pivot to a reset year, which involves lowering the payroll. It also means more playing time for younger players like catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, which is pushing Willson Contreras to first base.

The Mariners are rarely huge spenders in free agency and are working with budgetary constraints this offseason, reportedly having about $15MM of wiggle room at the moment. It’s been rumored that they are considering Luis Castillo trade offers as a means of opening up some extra room, but they wouldn’t be a likely suitor even in that scenario. They are looking to add multiple infielders and a Castillo trade could perhaps leave them looking to make a rotation addition as well.

Goldschmidt fits well into their offseason plans as they are looking for a right-handed hitting veteran first baseman. They have been connected to Turner and Santana in rumors this offseason, as well as Walker before he agreed to his new deal with the Astros. Goldschmidt is another option they could consider, as he would require a lesser investment than Walker, though likely more than Turner or Santana.

MLBTR’s $15MM projection for Goldschmidt exactly matches what the M’s reportedly have to spend. That wouldn’t leave them any money to get the other infielder they want, likely a third baseman, though perhaps the trade market could help them out there.

The Nationals have been rebuilding for a while but could perhaps be ready to emerge back into contention. Their roster has started to fill up with exciting young talents but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said back in September that adding middle-of-the-order bats was a priority this winter.

That kind of addition wouldn’t have to come at first base but it would be the most logical place for it. They have lots of exciting young players for the outfield. CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. seem to be set in the middle infield. Prospect Brady House is a potential third baseman of the future.

But at first, the Nats gave most of their playing time to Joey Gallo, Joey Meneses and Juan Yepez this year. The club declined a mutual option on Gallo while Meneses was outrighted and has since signed a minor league deal with the Mets. Yepez is still on the roster but is likely viewed as more of a role player than an everyday guy. The Nats also don’t have a strict designater hitter and could theoretically have lots of at-bats to share between Yepez and Goldschmidt or some other external addition.

The Mets technically have a first base vacancy but it would be a surprise to see them put fill it with Goldschmidt. Alonso has been a mainstay there for years and many in the baseball world expect the Polar Bear to wind up back in Queens. If Alonso ends up elsewhere, it’s been expected that the Mets would move Mark Vientos over from third since his defense at the hot corner is not well regarded. That could allow them to pursue someone like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

It’s clear though that president of baseball operations David Stearns loves short-term deals. Last winter, he signed ten free agents, nine of them getting one-year deals. Sean Manaea got two years but with an opt-out, which he eventually triggered.

This winter, it was thought that he would ramp up the aggressiveness. The 15-year Juan Soto deal certainly qualifies but Stearns has paired that with a pile of far more modest moves. Despite having seemingly unlimited funds to work with, he has given one-year deals to Griffin Canning, Jared Young, Dylan Covey and Justin Hagenman, a two-year deal to Frankie Montas and a three-year deal with an opt-out to Clay Holmes.

Signing Goldschmidt to replace Alonso would likely mean Vientos staying at third base for another year, but that was tolerable in 2024 and he’s only 25 years old, so perhaps he will improve a little with more experience. Guys like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña could perhaps push their way into the infield mix over the course of the year, solidifying the infield group for 2026 and beyond.

Blue Jays Sign Josh Walker

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed left-hander Josh Walker to a one-year split contract. Per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, the southpaw will make $760K, which is next year’s league minimum, for time spent in the majors. The Associated Press reports that he’ll be paid at a $180K rate while in the minors. Right-hander Hagen Danner has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Walker, 30, has a little bit of major league experience. He tossed 22 1/3 innings with the Mets over the past two seasons, allowing 6.45 earned runs per nine in that small sample. He struck out 22.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11.7% clip. He was designated for assignment by the Mets in July and flipped to the Pirates, though the Bucs designated him for assignment shortly thereafter and eventually released him.

Those major league numbers aren’t especially impressive, but the Jays are likely attracted to his minor league work, where he has shown huge strikeout ability but also significant control issues. He has thrown 89 innings on the farm over the past three years with a 3.54 ERA, giving out walks to 12.7% of opponents but also punching them out at a huge 33.7% rate. The Jays were seemingly intrigued enough by those numbers to give Walker a 40-man roster spot.

Remaking the bullpen is an ongoing project for the Jays after the group let them down in 2024. Toronto relievers had a collective 4.82 ERA this year, with only the Rockies posting a worse number in that category. Since the season ended, Génesis Cabrera and Jordan Romano were both cut from the roster and both have signed with other clubs already. The Jays re-signed Yimi García, who they had traded to the Mariners last year, and also acquired Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade.

Prior to this deal, the only lefty relievers on the roster were Brendon Little, Brandon Eisert and Easton Lucas. It’s a very inexperienced group, as none of those southpaws has even thrown 50 big league innings yet. Walker adds another lefty into that competition and he still has an option year remaining, as do the other three, so they might take turns moving between the big leagues and Triple-A throughout the year. Walker still has less than a year of service time, so he can be cheaply retained for many years to come if he continues to hang onto his roster spot.

Danner, 26, he was drafted as a catcher but struck out a lot in the lower levels of the minors and got moved to the mound. In 2021, he tossed 35 2/3 innings at High-A with a 2.02 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. That was his first professional season as a pitcher but he was already Rule 5 eligible due to the years he spent behind the plate. The Jays gave him a 40-man roster spot after that season to prevent him from being plucked away.

He has hit a few speed bumps since then. He spent most of 2022 on the injured list and only made four minor league appearances. In 2023, he was healthy enough to throw 28 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.81 ERA. His 31.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate were quite good but he allowed eight home runs. He also made his major league debut that year but only tossed one third of an inning before landing on the injured list due to an oblique strain. In 2024, he logged 34 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 3.15 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

Overall, the results haven’t been bad, but he hasn’t been able to pitch much due to the time spent catching and the health issues. He has just 114 1/3 professional innings on his ledger thus far and he has just one option year remaining.

DFA limbo normally lasts a week but recent years have seen that clock paused over the period from Christmas to New Year’s. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later. That will give the Jays some time to see if there’s any trade interest in Danner.

Marlins Sign Eric Wagaman, Designate Vidal Bruján

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The Marlins announced they have signed infielder/outfielder Eric Wagaman to a one-year major league deal. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. Salary figures for Wagaman weren’t reported but it’s likely near the major league minimum since the Paragon Sports International client just made his major league debut this year. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reported on the signing prior to the official announcement.

Wagaman, 27, was drafted by the Yankees and spent his entire career with that club until about a year ago, when the Angels plucked him away in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft. After a strong season in the minors, the Angels called him up to the big leagues on September 10. He got into 18 games down the stretch as the club was playing out a losing season, stepping to the plate 74 times and hitting .250/.270/.403. He was non-tendered at the end of the year, sending him to free agency without being exposed to waivers.

That’s a very small sample size and the Marlins probably aren’t giving it much weight. He has 897 minor league plate appearances over the past three years, with some intriguing numbers in that larger sample. He hit 35 home runs, struck out just 16.9% of the time and drew walks at a 9.5% clip. He has a combined batting line of .276/.348/.473 over those three seasons, which translates to a 129 wRC+.

He also stole 26 bases in that stretch, getting caught seven times. Defensively, Wagaman was mostly a first baseman with the Yankees but the Angels fanned him out a bit, having him line up at first but also third base and the outfield corners this year.

The rebuilding Marlins have very little settled in their position player mix. At last year’s deadline, they traded away Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz. This offseason, they’ve sent Jake Burger packing as well. None of the position players on the roster have even four years of major league service time. Jesús Sánchez is the only guy with more than three, while Nick Fortes and Derek Hill are the only guys with more than two.

In short, there’s very little written in stone. Sánchez will likely have a corner outfield job but is a candidate to be traded if the Marlins get an offer they like. Connor Norby, Jonah Bride, Griffin Conine, Deyvison De Los Santos, Kyle Stowers and others are candidates for jobs in the corners but they are all fairly inexperienced. Wagaman has a full slate of options, so he can provide minor league depth at various spots or battle for a big league job. He has just a few days of service time and can be cheaply retained into the future if he continues to hang onto his roster spot.

Bruján, 27 in February, was once a top 100 prospect but he hasn’t yet lived up to that hype. He was praised for his speed, athleticism, plate discipline and ability to play multiple positions. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to do enough damage with the bat to make an impact. He has stepped to the plate 550 times over the past four seasons, with five home runs and a .189/.261/.270 batting line. He has swiped 14 bags but he’s also been caught 13 times.

DFA limbo normally lasts a week but recent years have seen that clock paused over the period from Christmas to New Year’s. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later. That will give the Fish some time to see if any club is interested in taking a flier on Bruján.

For what it’s worth, the minor league results have continued to be good, even as he has floundered in the majors. He has just over a thousand Triple-A plate appearances over the past four years and has slashed .272/.357/.451 in those for a wRC+ of 113. He is out of options but he has less than three years of service time, meaning he can provide four years of club control if any team is willing to give him a roster spot. He has played every position except catcher, giving him plenty of ways to theoretically slot into a club’s plans.

Rangers Designate Owen White For Assignment

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The Rangers officially announced their signing of left-hander Hoby Milner today, which was reported earlier this week. Right-hander Owen White has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

White, 25, was one of the top pitching prospects in the league as of two years ago but his results have tailed off significantly since then. A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, White’s professional debut was delayed by 2019 Tommy John surgery and then the pandemic taking out the minor leagues in 2020. He quickly made up for lost time once he got back on the mound. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 115 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.42 earned run average. He struck out 34.1% of batters faced while giving out walks just 7.5% of the time.

That strong performance made him a consensus top 100 prospect going into 2023. But as alluded to earlier, he’s been hit around badly since then. He has allowed 13 earned runs in his first seven big league innings, meaning he has an unsightly 16.71 ERA at the moment.

That’s obviously a tiny sample size but the results in the minors have been bad as well. White has thrown 151 1/3 innings for Triple-A Round Rock over the past two years with a 5.41 ERA. The Express play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but his 17.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate for that club have both been subpar.

The Rangers tried moving White to a relief role midway through the most recent season, with some encouragement there. He tossed 18 innings over this final 13 Triple-A appearances with a 5.50 ERA. His 25.6% strikeout rate was a nice jump, but he was still giving out free passes at a high clip of 12.8%.

White is down to just one more option year at this point, so 2025 was shaping up to be a make-or-break sort of season. But with his declining numbers and a move to the bullpen, his prospect shine has worn off enough that he is being bumped off the roster today.

DFA limbo normally last one week, though recent years have seen that clock paused between Christmas and New Year’s Day. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later.

That gives the Rangers some time to call around and see if there’s any trade interest for White. Obviously, the recent results have tamped down his value, but some club might take a shot based on his past prospect pedigree. With one option year remaining, he could be stashed in the minors by a club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.

Mets To Sign Anthony Gose, Luis Ortiz To Minor League Deals

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The Mets have minor league deals in place with left-hander Anthony Gose and right-hander Luis Ortiz, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Both pitchers also receive invites to major league spring training.

Gose, 34, spent many years as a position player in the majors but didn’t find much success and converted to the mound. In that role, he has intrigued with some high velocity and strikeout potential but has also shown control issues.

He tossed 27 2/3 innings for the Guardians over 2021 and 2022, allowing 3.90 earned runs per nine. He averaged 97.6 miles per hour on his fastball and struck out 31.9% of batters faced but also gave out free passes at a 13.8% clip. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2023 season. He returned to the mound in 2024 but only got into three big league games. He tossed 44 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 3.22 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 14.1% walk rate.

Gose is clearly a bit of a project, despite his age. He’s only really been pitching for a few years and the big surgery layoff put things on pause for a while. A 34-year-old with ongoing control problems might be considered a lost cause but Gose is perhaps a special case due to his unusual trajectory. If he can harness his stuff a bit better, there’s intriguing potential there. He has less than four years of service time and can be retained beyond 2025 if he has a roster spot at season’s end, though he is out of options.

Ortiz, 29, is not to be confused with the Luis Ortiz who was recently traded from the Pirates to the Guardians. This Ortiz has pitched for the Orioles and Giants before spending the past two years with the Phillies. He has tossed 34 innings over five different MLB seasons with a 4.76 ERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate and 48.6% ground ball rate.

He only made one big league appearance in 2024 and only five in the minors. He missed time due to ankle and shoulder injuries before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. He will therefore miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 campaign. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 155 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 4.58 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. If he eventually gets a roster spot, he still has one option season and less than two years of service time.

Orioles Re-Sign Matt Bowman To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles have re-signed right-hander Matt Bowman to a minor league deal with an invite to big league spring training, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty will make $1.1MM if in the majors and will also have the chance to unlock incentives valued at $400K.

Bowman, 34 in May, just finished a nomadic season. He pitched for four clubs this year: the Twins, Diamondbacks, Mariners and Orioles, with Baltimore being his final stop. He signed a minor league deal with the O’s in August and was added to the roster shortly thereafter. He tossed 15 1/3 innings with Baltimore down the stretch, allowing 3.45 earned runs per nine. The O’s outrighted him off the roster at season’s end and Bowman elected free agency.

When combined with his other stops, he tallied 30 2/3 innings on the year with a 4.40 ERA, 18.2% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. Keeping the ball on the ground has been Bowman’s best attribute in his career. Dating back to his 2016 debut, he has 216 big league innings with a 4.17 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate is a bit below average but his 8.3% walk rate is fine and he has kept the ball on the ground at a 54.6% clip.

The bulk of that came work from 2016 to 2019, before Bowman missed the 2020 to 2022 seasons due to injuries, with rehab from Tommy John surgery being the main culprit. He was healthy in 2023 but spent most of the year in Triple-A, getting into just three big league contests. As mentioned, he bounced around quite a bit this year but managed to get his largest chunk of big league work in quite a while.

He’ll give the O’s a bit of non-roster depth for their relief group. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he’ll make a salary a bit above league minimum, which will be $760K next year. He is out of options, which is part of the reason why he bounced around so much this past season. He has less than five years of service time, so he can theoretically be retained for 2026 via arbitration if he has a roster spot at season’s end.

Braves Acquire Davis Daniel

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The Braves have acquired right-hander Davis Daniel from the Angels, per announcements from both clubs. The Halos designated Daniel for assignment earlier this week. Left-hander Mitch Farris heads the other way.

Daniel, 28 in June, has a small amount of major league experience thus far. Between last year and this year, he has tossed 42 2/3 innings for the Angels, allowing 5.06 earned runs per nine. His 8.1% walk rate is right around average but his 19.9% strikeout rate and 39.1% ground ball rate are both a few ticks worse than par.

Atlanta is probably more interested in the Triple-A season that Daniel just had. He made 21 starts and one relief appearance at the Sale Lake Bees, logging 118 innings. His 5.42 ERA in that time is obviously not impressive, but the Bees play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Daniel struck out 23.3% of batters faced and only gave out walks at a 6.5% clip. His 4.41 FIP was almost exactly a run better than his ERA.

Daniel still has an option remaining, so he can give Atlanta a bit of extra rotation depth without taking up an active roster spot. Atlanta projects to have a rotation fronted by Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach. They will eventually get Spencer Strider back into that mix at some point, once he’s recovered from his April internal brace surgery. Until then, options for the back end include Grant Holmes, Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and others. Daniel will jump into that group, who will presumably battle each other for positions on the depth chart.

Farris, 24 in February, was selected by Atlanta in the 14th round of the 2023 draft. Since then, he has thrown 124 2/3 innings over 21 starts and nine relief appearances in the minors. In that time, he has a 2.96 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. He spent most of 2024 at High-A and will backfill some of the pitching depth that the Angels just lost by cutting Daniel from the roster. Farris isn’t Rule 5 eligible until December of 2026, so he won’t need a roster spot for quite a while.

Nick Nelson Signs With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers

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Right-hander Nick Nelson has signed with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per an announcement from Beverly Hills Sports Council, his agency. It’s a one-year deal worth $1MM plus incentives. Phillies Tailgate reported last week that the two sides were in negotiations.

Nelson, 29, pitched in each of the past five major league seasons but without sustained success. He logged 114 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Phillies, allowing 5.20 earned runs per nine. His 23.1% strikeout rate and 42.6% ground ball rate were both close to average but he gave out walks at a high rate of 12.9%.

As is often the case with players heading overseas, the minor league numbers are a bit more interesting. A starter for most of his minor league career, he worked primarily in relief in 2021. He tossed 52 Triple-A innings that year with a 3.81 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 12.3% walk rate and 53.6% ground ball rate.

In 2022, he was kept in the majors, tossing 68 2/3 innings with a 4.85 ERA. The Phils tried stretching him out in 2023, which didn’t go especially well. He made 20 Triple-A starts but with a 4.35 ERA, 17.7% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 49.3% ground ball rate. A return to a primary relief role in 2024 didn’t immediately get him back on track, as he threw 54 1/3 Triple-A innings this year with a 6.13 ERA, 18% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 41.6% ground ball rate.

Nelson exhausted his final option year in 2024. The Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man twice late in the year, once in August and once in September. He didn’t have a roster spot at season’s end and elected free agency.

Had he stayed in North America for the 2025 season, he likely would have been looking at minor league deals, having to fight for a roster spot. By heading to Japan and joining the Tigers, he locks in a nice payday above the MLB league minimum, which will be $760K next year. If he takes advantage of his new opportunity, he could parlay that into a raise with the Tigers or perhaps attempt a return to North American ball down the line, following the path of guys like Miles Mikolas and Colin Rea.

Twins Have Listened To Trade Offers On Pablo López

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The Twins have listened to trade offers on right-hander Pablo López, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins are likely to move him, but it suggests it’s at least possible.

As recently as the middle of November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea of the Twins subtracting a notable player from their roster via a blockbuster trade. He identified López, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as “key” pieces of the roster that were unlikely to move. “Everyone is always going to ask when you’re a team in the payroll bracket that we are,” Falvey said. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field. They’re going to fuel us hopefully to some of the success we want to have. … I feel really good about those players.”

Despite that public framing, it’s understandable why the front office might at least consider alternative possibilities. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely going to have a payroll around $130MM next year, the same as they had in 2024. RosterResource currently projects them for $142MM in 2025, suggesting they may need to find some cuts.

Guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez have been floated as potential trade candidates who could help the club get down to their preferred level, though neither is likely to have massive trade value. Paddack is going to make $7.5MM next year, the final year on his deal, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest in a while. He had a strong 3.33 earned run average in his 2019 rookie season, but his ERA was closer to 5.00 in the next two seasons. He then missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound in 2024 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.

Vázquez also has just one year left on his deal, with a $10MM salary. He’s a strong defender behind the plate but has hit just .222/.265/.322 over the past two seasons. That production translates to a wRC+ of 63, indicating he was 37% worse than league average.

Trading one or both of those players could help the Twins with their budget crunch but likely wouldn’t bring back massive returns. López, on the other hand, should have lots of appeal. He’s set to make $21.5MM in each of the next three years, leaving $64.5MM remaining on his contract.

That’s a very nice price for a pitcher who is going into his age-29 season and has been one of the better hurlers in baseball over the past five years. From 2020 to the present, he has thrown 719 1/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. FanGraphs has credited him with 14.7 wins above replacement in that time, which puts him 13th out of all pitchers in the majors for that stretch.

The price of starting pitching has been especially strong so far this winter. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM. His numbers have been fairly similar to López in recent years but he’s far older, going into his age-35 season. Pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have had notably worse results than López/Eovaldi but both got three-year deals, Kikuchi getting a $63MM guarantee and Severino $67MM.

It seems fair to conclude that the strong market might lead to the Twins getting some interesting offers that could at least make them reconsider their stance on López. Of course, the same things that make him appealing to other clubs also make him very valuable in Minnesota. The club can certainly hold onto him and trade guys like Paddack and/or Vázquez, but perhaps they will receive an offer for López that allows them to both get their payroll down to the desired level while also adding a notable return that helps the franchise in the short and long term.

As of now, the rotation group consists of López, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Trading López or Paddack would weaken the group but would also open a spot for young pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa, both of whom debuted in 2024. The Twins also have some non-roster options like Huascar Ynoa and Darren McCaughan in the mix.

Subtracting López is surely not what the front office wants and there’s no indication that they are shopping him around. But the hot starting pitching market seems to be making various clubs ponder trades of starting pitchers a bit harder than they expected to. Names like Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Framber Valdez have somewhat surprisingly been in rumors of late. A team being willing to listen doesn’t mean a trade is going to happen, as shown with Valdez and the Astros, as he is now apparently off the table. However, it’s an interesting twist on the offseason, with free agents like Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea still available.

Nationals Sign Michael Soroka

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The Nationals announced that they have signed right-hander Michael Soroka to a one-year deal, which reportedly comes with a $9MM salary. The club had 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move. The ISE Baseball client will reportedly be used as a starter.

Soroka, 27, came into the offseason as one of the more interesting free agents available. He found success as a starting pitcher in his early 20s, back in 2019, but missed most of the 2020 to 2023 seasons due to injuries. In 2024, he struggled badly as a starter but then got moved to a bullpen role and finished the season in very strong fashion. It could have been argued that he earned himself another shot at a rotation job or that he found a role that worked for him and should continue as a reliever, though it seems he will take another shot at being a starter next year.

Prior to his 2019 breakout, Soroka was already a name to watch. He was a first-round pick of Atlanta in 2015 and found himself on top 100 prospect lists as he climbed through the minors. He debuted with five starts in 2018 and then fully cemented himself as a big leaguer in 2019, making 29 starts and logging 174 2/3 innings while allowing 2.68 earned runs per nine. His 20.3% strikeout rate was just below average but his 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate were both notably better than par.

That was Soroka’s age-21 season, so it seemed Atlanta had a rotation building block for years to come. Unfortunately, the baseball gods had a miserable fate in store for Soroka’s next chapter. In his third start of the shortened 2020 season, he had to be helped off the field with a leg injury, later revealed to be a torn right achilles tendon which required surgery. In 2021, he missed some time due to shoulder inflammation and later required another surgery on his achilles. He got back on the mound in 2022 and pitched in the minors, though that season was ended due to elbow soreness. In 2023, he was frequently shuttled between Triple-A and the majors and finished the season on the IL due to forearm inflammation.

After those four years in the injury wilderness, Atlanta seemingly didn’t have much faith in Soroka bouncing back. He was flipped to the White Sox in November, part of a five-for-one trade that saw Atlanta flip multiple spare parts for Aaron Bummer in a roster clearout move.

Unlike Atlanta, Chicago was aggressively rebuilding and had more bandwidth for being patient with Soroka, hoping for a bounceback. It didn’t materialize at first. Soroka started the season with nine starts but had a 6.39 ERA in those. His 46.9% grounder rate was strong but his matching strikeout and walk rates of 12.4% were both bad.

The last of those starts was on May 12. Soroka was moved to the bullpen at that point, which is when things became very interesting. He tossed 36 innings out of the bullpen in the remainder of the season with a 2.75 ERA. His 13% walk rate was oddly high and his grounder rate was just 26.5% but he managed to punch out 39% of batter’s faced.

That came with a significant change in his pitch mix. In those nine starts, he threw 22.5% four-seamers, 30.8% sinkers, 31.9% sliders and 14.7% changeups. After moving to the bullpen, he pushed towards a fastball/slider mix, with 43.2% of his pitches being the former and 41.6% the latter. His sinker and changeup rates dropped to 10.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite limiting his arsenal, he was effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Righties hit just .197/.306/.296 against Soroka the reliever while lefties mustered only a .179/.299/.286 line.

Given the amount of success he had in that relief role, it might be tempting to suggest that he should stay there, but there are also counterarguments. For one thing, despite the many twists and turns in his career, Soroka is still young. He is currently 27 and won’t turn 28 until August. He might not want to give up on the possibility of being a starter just yet.

Furthermore, teams these days don’t tend to view relief success as any kind of reason to not try a guy in a starting role. In recent years, bullpen-to-rotation conversions have become all the rage, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, Jeffrey Springs and others making the move successfully. It doesn’t always work out, with A.J. Puk being one example, but even then the downside is pretty harmless as the pitcher just lands as a viable reliever as a fallback.

The Nats should be able to give Soroka a chance to earn a rotation job, at least for a while. They have some intriguing arms but most of them are fairly lacking in experience. The quartet of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz all had decent results in 2024, with each posting an ERA of 4.41 or lower. However, Gore’s 372 2/3 career innings are the most of the bunch. Irvin is at 308 while Parker and Herz just debuted in 2024 and are below 200. Josiah Gray had UCL surgery in July and won’t be a factor until late in the 2025 season, if at all. Cade Cavalli missed all of 2023 and 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and it’s unknown what kind of workload he can take on next year.

Washington can give Soroka a rotation gig to start the year and see how things go. If he struggles out of the gate, they can push him to the bullpen and give those starts to one of the younger pitchers. But if things go well, he can be very valuable for the Nats. If they are able to emerge from their ongoing rebuild, he can be a part of that, but he could be a midseason trade candidate even if the club isn’t ready for that step yet. Even if he’s pushed to a relief role, he could still be an interesting deadline trade candidate.

It’s also theoretically possible that he pitches his way into consideration for a qualifying offer at season’s end, as even mid-rotation or back-end guys like Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino and Nick Martinez got QOs this year. In that scenario, Soroka could stay with the Nats all year and help them make a contending push while also providing some future value at the end of the year, though that will be a concern for another day.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soroka for a two-year deal worth $14MM. He has settled for a lesser guarantee but on a stronger annual value, with the chance to return to the open market a year from now. For him personally, that could be a lucrative bet, as it’s possible he will have much more earning power at the end of the 2025 season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Nats and Soroka were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that it was a one-year deal worth $9MM.

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