Anthony Franco | MLB Trade Rumors

Nationals Interview Brandon Hyde, Craig Albernaz

By Anthony Franco | October 25, 2025 at 2:47pm CDT

2:47PM: The Nationals also conducted interviews with both Cairo and Guardians associate manager Craig Albernaz within the last week, the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden reports. Albernaz has been a candidate for managerial vacancies with the Giants, Guardians, White Sox, and Marlins over the last two years, and was a finalist for both the Chicago and Miami jobs.

Albernaz worked as Cleveland’s bench coach in 2024 before moving into his current job title this season. Before arriving in Cleveland, Albernaz spent four years on the Giants’ staff as a bullpen/catching coach, and four seasons in various roles in the Rays’ minor league system (including two managerial stints).

2:24PM: Brandon Hyde has interviewed with the Nationals about the team’s managerial vacancy, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Hyde becomes the first known candidate for the manager’s job, as Washington’s first order of business was its search for new front office boss.

Paul Toboni has now had a month as president of baseball operations. The Nats haven’t formally ruled out retaining interim manager Miguel Cairo, but it appears likelier that Toboni will want to hire his own replacement. He’s already begun reshaping the front office, including tabbing Justin Horowitz as an assistant general manager on Friday afternoon.

Hyde is plenty familiar with the Beltway after managing in Baltimore for parts of seven seasons. The O’s won 46.1% of games during Hyde’s tenure, though that’s largely weighed down by the full rebuild in which they were mired for the first three years. Hyde led the O’s to three consecutive winning seasons, including playoff berths in 2023 and ’24. Baltimore didn’t find any playoff success in either of those years but went into this season expecting to compete in the AL East.

A terrible start tanked those plans by April. The O’s were 15-28 when they fired Hyde on May 17. Baltimore played roughly .500 ball the rest of the way under Tony Mansolino. Hyde has been clear that he hopes to find another managerial opportunity. He was very loosely tied to the Giants’ and Angels’ searches that respectively landed on Tony Vitello and Kurt Suzuki. It’s not clear if Hyde ever interviewed for either position, though Heyman writes that he has had interviews beyond the sit-down with Washington.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2025 at 11:00pm CDT

MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve gone through each offensive position and now turn to the starting rotation. For this exercise, we’re focused on pitchers who spent most of this past season working as a starter. Some relievers (e.g. Luke Weaver, Steven Matz, Sean Newcomb) could also receive rotation interest. They’ll be covered in the respective reliever previews. Player ages, listed in parentheses, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, right-handed relief

Top Group

Dylan Cease (30)

Cease may be the biggest wild card of the free agent class. He entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher. A repeat of his fourth-place Cy Young season from 2024 would’ve positioned him for a $225-250MM contract. He instead had an uneven platform season, finishing with a 4.55 earned run average across 168 innings. His past four seasons have alternated between top five Cy Young finishes (2022, ’24) and years with an ERA closer to 5.00 than to 4.00 (2023, ’25).

The positives are obvious. Cease has not missed a start in four years. He’s eighth in MLB in innings going back to the start of 2022. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff headlined by a fastball that sits above 97 MPH. It’s the seventh-highest average fastball speed among starters. This year’s 29.8% strikeout rate was right in line with the swing-and-miss numbers he posted during his ace-caliber seasons. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Tarik Skubal had a higher swinging strike rate.

All that said, Cease’s camp is going to have an uphill battle pushing for a $200MM+ contract for a pitcher coming off a second mediocre ERA in three years. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola for seven years and $172MM coming off a 4.46 ERA a few years back, but Nola was a more reliable source of innings. Cease has been durable but is generally inefficient and only averaged 5.25 innings per start this year. He didn’t work beyond six frames after June 21.

The Padres will issue Cease a qualifying offer, which he’s a lock to decline. If a $200MM offer doesn’t materialize, it’d make sense for him to look for a two- or three-year guarantee that allows him to opt out and give free agency another go next winter. It’s tough to see him splitting the difference and accepting a four- or five-year deal without opt-outs that pays him like a #3/4 starter.

Tatsuya Imai (28)*

Imai, who is likely to be posted by NPB’s Seibu Lions, is the best foreign pitcher in this year’s class. He might command the top contract of any pitcher. The 5’11” hurler won’t turn 28 until May, making him the youngest free agent pitcher of note. He has posted ace-caliber numbers in consecutive seasons. Imai turned in a 2.34 ERA last year and posted a 1.92 mark across 163 2/3 innings this past season. He ranked second in NPB with 178 strikeouts and led the league (minimum 100 innings) with a 27.8% strikeout rate.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in September that contract estimates from people with whom he spoke ranged from $80MM to over $200MM. Imai isn’t the slam dunk ace that Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he commanded $325MM from the Dodgers. He’s younger and throws a lot harder than Shota Imanaga did when he signed a four-year, $53MM guarantee.

Teams are going to have different evaluations on his stuff and some clubs might feel there’s a risk that his command projects him to relief. Imai has improved his control each season and is coming off a solid 7% walk rate, but he’d issued free passes to more than 9% of opponents in every year before this one. Whatever team wins the bidding will be one that views Imai as a slam dunk starter, though, and he’s likely to be paid as a #3 arm who is in the prime of his career.

Ranger Suárez (30)

Suárez has been a steady #2/3 starter for the Phillies over the past four seasons. He’s coming off arguably the best year of his career. He turned in a 3.20 ERA over a personal-high 157 1/3 innings. Suárez fanned a solid 23.2% of opponents against an excellent 5.8% walk rate. He reliably gets weak contact and has gotten ground-balls at a 51% clip since the start of 2022.

The lefty doesn’t have the kind of power stuff that tends to get paid highly. He hasn’t reached a league average swinging strike rate in any of the last four years. His sinker has averaged between 90-91 MPH in each of the past two seasons. The multi-year track record should support a nine-figure deal spanning five or six years. Suárez will reject a qualifying offer and be attached to draft compensation.

Framber Valdez (32)

Valdez is now the top domestic free agent starter in the class. The southpaw is coming off his sixth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season. He hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons. Valdez has slightly above-average strikeout stuff, but his standout skill is an elite ground-ball rate. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range with his heater, so he’s hardly a soft-tossing grounder specialist. There are clear parallels to Max Fried, who commanded an eight-year and $218MM deal last winter.

Valdez isn’t going to get that long of a contract. There hasn’t been a six-year deal for a 32-year-old free agent starting pitcher in a decade. Valdez would have had a better case to snap that precedent had he finished the season well. He ended with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts. Valdez was also at the center of controversy when he didn’t appear to show much concern after a cross-up that led him to drill catcher César Salazar in the chest. The Astros downplayed that publicly, but he could face some questions about the situation from interested teams.

That’s unlikely to stop him from commanding a five-year contract that pays between $25-30MM annually. He’ll cost a team a draft choice after he declines a qualifying offer. Extension talks with the Astros never gained traction and he’s expected to sign elsewhere.

Second Tier

Shane Bieber (31)

Bieber is technically weighing a $16MM player option versus a $4MM buyout. It’s an obvious decision for him to opt out. The former Cy Young winner signed a two-year deal to return to Cleveland when he was halfway through rehab from April 2024 Tommy John surgery. The recovery went mostly as expected. He had a brief setback in June when he was scratched from a rehab start with elbow soreness. That prevented him from returning to an MLB mound before the trade deadline, but he was back on a rehab assignment by July.

The Blue Jays were encouraged enough by his form to give up a legitimate pitching prospect, Khal Stephen, to acquire him. It paid off, as Bieber turned in a 3.57 ERA over seven regular season starts. He averaged nearly six innings per start while striking out 23.3% of opponents against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He has taken the ball three times in the postseason, allowing seven runs (six earned) over 12 1/3 frames. His 15:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is excellent, but he has given up a home run in each of his past two starts. He’ll make at least one and potentially two starts during the World Series.

Bieber is unlikely to return to the Cy Young heights he reached in 2020, but he looks like a high-end #3 arm. While the ill-timed surgery has prevented him from racking up many innings over the past two seasons, some teams will probably view that at as a standalone injury which is now behind him. He will hit free agency without draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered him ineligible for a qualifying offer.

Zac Gallen (30)

Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures. The Diamondbacks are expected to make him a qualifying offer.

Lucas Giolito (30)

Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.

A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.

Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. He’s a borderline QO candidate.

Michael King (31)

King will decline his end of a $15MM mutual option with the Padres. He’ll be paid a $3.75MM buyout and become a free agent. A few months ago, he looked like he’d find a nine-figure deal. That’s tougher to envision after injuries interrupted what had been an excellent start to his walk year.

The righty began his season with a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents through his first 10 starts. He went on the injured list at the end of May with what the team initially viewed as a minor shoulder injury. That turned out to be far more of a hindrance than expected. It turned out to be a nerve issue that cost him three months. He came back in mid-August, started one game, then went back on the injured list with left knee inflammation. King returned a few weeks later and made four starts in September but was nowhere near as effective as he’d been early in the year. He didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of those appearances and gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings.

King was healthy enough for the Padres to carry him on their playoff roster. The team clearly didn’t trust him, though, as they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start a must-win Game 3 of their Wild Card Series while keeping King in the bullpen. Darvish gave up two runs in one inning to take the loss. King tossed a scoreless inning of relief, striking out three of four batters in his only playoff action. It now remains to be seen if teams are willing to chance a four- or five-year contract on a pitcher who looked like a high-end #2 starter a few months ago. A two-year deal with an opt-out isn’t out of the question.

Brandon Woodruff (33)

On talent alone, Woodruff belongs in the first tier. Teams that are only concerned with chasing short-term upside could have him alongside Valdez as the two best pitchers in the class. Woodruff isn’t going to command the same long-term contract because of his age and durability questions.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. His 93 MPH average fastball is down nearly three ticks from his pre-surgery level, which is an obvious concern, but that didn’t prevent him from dominating before the lat strain. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters and Woodruff has that kind of ceiling.

The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.

Effective Late-Career Arms

Chris Bassitt (37)

Bassitt has been a steady, durable mid-rotation arm for the past six seasons. That includes a 3.89 ERA in 100 appearances over his three-year deal with the Blue Jays. He allowed just under four earned runs per nine across 170 1/3 innings during the regular season. Bassitt missed the Division Series with lower back tightness but returned for the ALCS roster. He tossed 2 2/3 perfect frames with three strikeouts in a setup capacity. He’ll be limited to a two-year deal at age 37 but could secure more than $15MM annually. The Blue Jays cannot make him a qualifying offer, as he received one from the Mets after the 2022 season.

Merrill Kelly (37)

Kelly is probably in a similar contractual range as Bassitt, though he could command a few million dollars more on an annual basis. He’s a rock solid #3 starter coming off a 3.52 ERA over 32 starts between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. Kelly posted solid strikeout (22.4%) and walk (6.4%) rates despite sitting around 92 MPH with his fastball. He has rebounded brilliantly from 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. A shoulder strain cost him a few months last season, but he stayed healthy this year and has reached 30+ starts in three of the past four seasons. The midseason trade renders him ineligible for the qualifying offer.

Max Scherzer (41)

Scherzer’s one-year, $15.5MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays has had mixed results. A recurring nerve injury in his right thumb sent him to the injured list after one start. Scherzer was out until late June. He returned to post a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts. The strikeout and walk profile remains solid, but he gave up more than two home runs per nine innings. Scherzer was a healthy scratch in the ALDS but returned to the roster for the Championship Series. He went 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a Game 4 start to pick up the win and even the ALCS at two games apiece. One could argue that start alone justified the signing even if Scherzer’s regular season was surely frustrating for the future Hall of Famer and the Blue Jays alike. He’ll get another one-year deal but might land in the $10-12MM range this time.

Justin Verlander (43)

Verlander signed a one-year, $15MM with the Giants last winter. He was coming off a 5.48 ERA over 17 starts that had gotten him left off Houston’s playoff roster. Verlander’s tenure in San Francisco started slowly, as he posted a 4.70 ERA through the All-Star Break. He turned in a 2.99 mark with a 21.5% strikeout rate in the second half. His fastball still lands around 94 MPH on average as he enters his age-43 season. Verlander isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he’s a capable mid-rotation performer whose wealth of experience is surely welcome for younger pitching staffs. He’ll sign another one-year deal that could approach $20MM.

Contractual Options

Jack Flaherty (30)

Flaherty is weighing a $20MM player option on his deal with the Tigers. He’s coming off a 4.64 ERA over 31 starts. It’s the second time in the past three years that Flaherty allowed nearly five earned runs per nine innings. He has had issues keeping the ball in the yard in consecutive seasons. While that might point towards him opting in, there’s a good chance he tests the market anyway based on his youth and swing-and-miss potential.

The righty punched out 27.6% of opponents behind a strong 11.3% swinging strike rate. He’d fanned nearly 30% of batters faced last season. He’s 13th in MLB with 382 strikeouts over the past two seasons. Flaherty has also avoided the injured list in three straight years despite reports that the Yankees pulled out of a 2024 deadline deal after flagging something in his medicals. The combination of durability and swing-and-miss upside might get him a three- or four-year contract. If Flaherty opts out, the Tigers would need to decide whether to issue a qualifying offer.

Shota Imanaga (32)

The Cubs have a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga’s services. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this year. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons.

John Means (33)

Cleveland signed Means to a one-year deal with a $6MM club option that could climb to $7.5MM based on next year’s innings totals. He was coming off his second UCL surgery in three years and spent all of this season rehabbing.

Freddy Peralta (30)

Peralta will not be a free agent. The Brewers are going to exercise an $8MM option. They’ll entertain trade possibilities but could hold their ace for his final season of club control after advancing to the NLCS.

Colin Rea (35)

The Cubs hold a $6MM option on Rea that comes with a $750K buyout. That’s a reasonable price for a reliable swingman who turned in a 3.95 ERA over 159 1/3 innings this past season. If the Cubs surprisingly cut Rea loose, he should be able to find a similar contract on the open market.

Jose Urquidy (31)

The Tigers guaranteed Urquidy $1MM as he completed rehab from Tommy John surgery. He made two late-season relief appearances. They can bring him back on a $4MM option that could climb to $7MM based on escalators.

Middle/Back of the Rotation

Adrian Houser (33)

Houser was on a minor league deal with the Rangers at the beginning of this year. He opted out and signed a big league deal with the White Sox in late May. Houser went on an excellent two-month run in Chicago, turning in a 2.10 ERA through 68 2/3 innings. That was enough to make him a legitimate deadline trade chip, as they sent him to the Rays for a three-player return headlined by former top prospect Curtis Mead. The magic wore off after the deal, as Houser struggled to a 4.79 ERA in 56 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay.

Middling finish aside, the righty is in much better position than he was at this time last winter. Houser is a lock for a big league deal and could get two years to pitch in a swing role. He doesn’t miss many bats but gets a lot of ground-balls behind a sinker that sits north of 95 MPH on average.

Zack Littell (30)

Littell has gone from nondescript middle reliever to viable fourth starter since the Rays built him up halfway through the 2023 season. He tied for 11th in MLB with 186 2/3 innings this year and has managed consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. He pounds the strike zone but has fringe stuff that leads to middling strikeout rates and a lot of home runs. Only Jake Irvin gave up more home runs than Littell’s 36 this year.

The Reds nevertheless valued Littell’s durability and strike-throwing enough to give up a legitimate pitching prospect (Adam Serwinowski) to acquire him at the deadline. Littell just turned 30 and should be able to pull a multi-year deal. There’s a chance he gets a three-year contract from a team that wants to lock in some stability at the back of the staff.

Tyler Mahle (31)

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts for the Rangers this year. However, he only struck out 19.1% of opponents while working with less impressive stuff than he showed early in his career with the Reds. Mahle averages 92 MPH after sitting 93-94 a few years ago. The drop-off is presumably tied to his history of arm injuries, which continued this year.

Mahle suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. Shoulder issues had prematurely ended his season in both 2022 and ’24, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. Mahle technically finished this season healthy for the first time in four years, as he was able to return to make two starts in September. He has only made 51 appearances over the past four years and might be limited to one-year deals as a result.

Nick Martinez (35)

Martinez was last offseason’s most surprising qualifying offer recipient. Not coincidentally, he was the only player to accept the QO and play out the season on a $21.05MM salary. The veteran swingman spent most of the season in Cincinnati’s rotation, working to a 4.45 ERA across 165 2/3 innings. His 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since he returned to MLB four years ago. Martinez doesn’t have eye-popping stuff, but he has plus control and reliably stays off barrels.

The lack of swing-and-miss and Martinez’s age could cap him at one year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he finds another two-year contract. Teams have valued his willingness to bounce between the rotation and bullpen at any point within the season. Martinez has also been ultra durable, avoiding the injured list entirely since his MLB comeback in 2022.

NPB/KBO fliers

Foster Griffin (30)

Griffin is a former first-round pick of the Royals who made seven MLB appearances between 2020-22. He has spent the past three seasons in Japan, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 315 2/3 innings. Griffin missed time this past season with what MLBTR has learned was a bone bruise in his lower body. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and intends to pursue an MLB return. Griffin didn’t have overpowering stuff during his initial run in affiliated ball, but he’s coming off a 1.62 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents. He could command a big league deal to compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot.

Cody Ponce (32)

Ponce is pitching with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Hanwha Eagles this year. It’s possible he explores MLB opportunities once the offseason begins. Ponce posted a near-6.00 ERA over 20 big league appearances with the Pirates between 2020-21. He spent the next three seasons pitching to mediocre results in Japan before signing in Korea. Ponce had a phenomenal KBO season, going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA while striking out more than 36% of opponents. It’s an even better season than Erick Fedde had when he won the KBO MVP award in 2023.

Fedde parlayed that into a two-year, $15MM contract with the White Sox. Ponce is a year older but is a former second-round pick whose stuff has ticked up in Korea. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke credited Ponce with a mid-90s fastball to headline a four-pitch mix. It’s not out of the question that he gets a multi-year deal that approaches or exceeds the Fedde contract.

Kona Takahashi (29)*

The Seibu Lions are expected to post Takahashi this offseason. The right-hander has a 3.39 ERA in nearly 1200 innings at Japan’s top level. He’s coming off a 3.04 mark over 148 innings. While the run prevention is solid, Takahashi doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff that’d generate huge big league interest. He struck out just 14% of opponents this past season. An MLB deal is possible, but he’s unlikely to command more than a couple million dollars. There are some similarities between Takahashi and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed a two-year, $3.5MM deal and pitched in a swing role for the Nationals.

Reclamation/Swing Types

Walker Buehler (31)

The Red Sox signed Buehler to a $21.05MM free agent deal last offseason. They ignored his terrible regular season results and placed a lot of emphasis on his two good outings in the World Series. That predictably didn’t work out, and they ended up releasing him by the end of August. Buehler managed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball after signing with the Phillies for the season’s final couple weeks, though that came with an 8:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the season with an ERA just under 5.00 with poor strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Buehler still has a 94 MPH fastball and a track record that should get him a big league deal at a much lower salary than he made this past season. Some teams could be intrigued to see if he can find a new gear in the bullpen, but Buehler may prefer to sign with a club that’ll offer a rotation opportunity.

Griffin Canning (30)

Canning was one of the Mets’ more reliable starters early in the season, turning in a 3.77 ERA behind a 51% ground-ball rate over 16 starts. Unfortunately, he ruptured his right Achilles against the Braves at the end of June. The Mets never released a specific timeline beyond the obvious news that he was headed for season-ending surgery. It seems unlikely that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, which would be nine months removed from the injury. Canning could try for a cheap, slightly backloaded two-year deal.

Nestor Cortes (31)

Cortes, an All-Star with the Yankees in 2022, has battled forearm issues for the past two seasons. He only made eight starts (with rough results) between the Brewers and Padres this year. Cortes finished the season on the injured list and underwent surgery that threatens his availability for 2026. He’s probably looking at a one-year guarantee with a ’27 club option so a signing team can gauge his recovery.

Zach Eflin (32)

Eflin looked good over three starts before suffering a lat strain. He missed a month, then was rocked for a 7.16 ERA over nine starts before returning to the injured list with a back issue. He came back in late July, started twice more, and was shut back down. Eflin underwent season-ending back surgery in August. The Orioles announced that the recovery could take anywhere from four to eight months, so it’s not a given that he’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Jon Gray (34)

Gray pitched six times this year, all in relief. He finished the season on the injured list and was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. It’s unclear if he’ll require surgery that could cost him most of the ’26 campaign.

Germán Márquez (31)

Márquez once overcame the challenges of pitching in Colorado to post upper mid-rotation numbers. That hasn’t been the case since he underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2023-24 seasons. The righty was bombed for a 6.70 ERA with a career-low 14% strikeout rate this year. He pitched just as poorly on the road as he did at Coors Field. Márquez still has a 95 MPH heater, so perhaps he’ll find a cheap big league deal from a team that thinks he’s salvageable with some repertoire changes.

Dustin May (28)

Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, May underwent a pair of significant elbow surgeries early in his career. He missed all of last year after requiring emergency esophageal surgery following a fluky but life-threatening throat rupture when a piece of lettuce got stuck in his throat. May thankfully was able to return to the mound this year and managed a career-high 132 1/3 innings across 25 appearances. He posted a near-5.00 ERA and ended the season on the shelf with elbow neuritis.

Jordan Montgomery (33)

Montgomery gave up a 6.23 ERA over 25 appearances during his first season with the Diamondbacks. He was blasted publicly by owner Ken Kendrick last winter, then blew out in Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery. Arizona dumped part of his contract on the Brewers at the deadline but he’ll probably look for a fresh start as a free agent. If he’s expected back in June or July, he could get a big league deal as a buy-low flier.

Michael Soroka (28)

Soroka has flashed intriguing swing-and-miss stuff but has yet to show that he can hold up as a starter. He fanned more than a quarter of opponents over 16 starts with the Nationals. His velocity wilted as the deadline approached. The Cubs looked past that and acquired him, but Soroka exited his team debut with a shoulder strain. He returned in mid-September as a reliever and finished the season with a 4.52 ERA across 89 2/3 innings.

Depth/Innings Eaters

Tyler Anderson (36)

Anderson wrapped up his three-year, $39MM free agent contract with the Angels by turning in a 4.56 ERA across 26 starts. He allowed 4.53 earned runs per nine over his three seasons in Anaheim. The southpaw struck out only 17.5% of opponents while averaging 89 MPH on his fastball. He missed the final month with an oblique strain and is likely looking at a one-year deal in the $3-5MM range.

Aaron Civale (31)

In a season divided between three teams, Civale turned in a 4.85 ERA across 102 innings. He pitched poorly as a starter with both Milwaukee and the White Sox but found some late-season success out of the bullpen with the Cubs.

Patrick Corbin (36)

Corbin took the ball 31 times and provided the Rangers 155 1/3 innings on a $1.1MM free agent deal. He managed decent results early in the season but a rough last two months left him with a 4.40 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate. It’s a better season than he had with the Nationals in 2024, so he could earn a boost to a $3-4MM salary if he comes back for his age-36 season.

Kyle Hendricks (36)

Hendricks was noncommittal on whether he planned to continue pitching. The soft-tossing sinkerballer is coming off a 4.76 ERA over 164 2/3 innings for the Angels on a $2.5MM free agent deal.

Michael Lorenzen (34)

Lorenzen started 26 of 27 appearances for the Royals this past season. He worked to a 4.64 ERA with a league average 21% strikeout rate and a solid 6.4% walk percentage. Lorenzen should fare the best of the pitchers in this tier because he sits around 94 MPH and missed bats at a near league average clip.

Miles Mikolas (37)

Mikolas played out his final season in St. Louis as an innings-eating fifth starter. He posted a 4.84 ERA over 31 appearances. Like most of the pitchers in this tier, he’s a durable strike-thrower who doesn’t miss many bats and gives up a lot of home runs.

Chris Paddack (30)

Paddack was sitting on a 4.95 ERA in 21 starts when the Twins traded him to Detroit at the deadline. The buy-low move for the Tigers busted, as the righty was pushed out of the rotation after five starts. He finished the regular season in relief and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Paddack ended the year with a 5.35 ERA and a career-worst 16.7% strikeout rate in 158 innings.

Martín Pérez (35)

Pérez managed a solid 3.54 ERA over 56 innings for the White Sox on a one-year deal. Injuries kept him from soaking up the innings that the Sox had wanted, though. Pérez missed a few months with a flexor issue and landed back on the shelf in September with a shoulder strain.

Jose Quintana (37)

Quintana made 24 starts and worked to a 3.96 ERA over 131 2/3 innings for the Brewers. He’s a capable back-end starter but didn’t find much interest last offseason, when he was coming off a 3.75 mark in 31 starts for the Mets. Another one-year deal between $4-6MM seems likely.

Tomoyuki Sugano (36)

Sugano’s first season in the U.S. was a disappointment. The former NPB star took the ball 30 times but gave up a 4.64 ERA while striking out fewer than 16% of opponents. He throws strikes but doesn’t have the stuff he did at his peak in Japan. Sugano isn’t going to approach last winter’s $15MM guarantee on a one-year deal this time around.

Potential Minor League Deals

Paul Blackburn (32)
Carlos Carrasco (39)
Alex Cobb (38)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (36)
Erick Fedde (33)
Austin Gomber (32)
Kyle Hart (33) ^
Andrew Heaney (35)
Kenta Maeda (38) **
Triston McKenzie (28)
Wade Miley (39)
Cal Quantrill (31)
Marcus Stroman (35)
José Ureña (34)
Bryse Wilson (28)
Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Note: Charlie Morton is technically a free agent. It’s widely expected that he’ll retire after signing a ceremonial deal to make a final appearance with the Braves on the last day of the regular season. He has yet to make an official announcement, however.

* Expected to be made available via posting system
^ Assumes buyout of club option
** Plans to pitch in Japan in 2026

Rays Promote Hamilton Marx To Assistant GM

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2025 at 10:02pm CDT

The Rays promoted Hamilton Marx to assistant general manager, writes Adam Berry of MLB.com. Marx is entering his 12th season in the organization and spent this past season as the club’s vice president of baseball process/strategy. He’d previously held the title of director of baseball operations.

Marx, 39, assumes the AGM role vacated when Carlos Rodriguez stepped down earlier this month. Rodriguez had previously run the team’s international scouting department. Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times writes that Marx, who has a scouting background, will now be in charge of both the domestic and international amateur scouting operations. That’s on top of his previous responsibilities, which included arbitration and contract work.

The Rays have had four assistant GMs for the last two seasons. Marx joins Chanda Lawdermilk, Will Cousins and Kevin Ibach in that role. The Rays have a number of assistant GMs without actually having a general manager. They never filled that position after Peter Bendix departed to become president of baseball operations in Miami. The Rays’ front office is led by baseball ops president Erik Neander, who’ll continue in the role he has had for a decade under new owner Patrick Zalupski.

Twins Narrow Managerial Search To Top Four Candidates

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2025 at 9:02pm CDT

The Twins seem to have winnowed down their candidates for manager to a group of four. Dan Hayes and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic report that they’re still considering Derek Shelton, James Rowson, Ryan Flaherty, and Scott Servais. While Hayes and Ghiroli leave open the possibility the Twins could broaden the field, that seems to be a long shot.

All four of those coaches had been tied to the Twins’ search, though it hadn’t been previously reported that Servais and Flaherty had formally interviewed. Shelton and Servais have previous MLB managerial experience. Shelton led the Pirates for five-plus seasons. Pittsburgh never won more than 76 games and posted a 41% win percentage over his tenure. Shelton wasn’t working with the most talented rosters, of course, but the Bucs fired him in May after beginning this past season with a 12-26 record. They went 59-65 under Don Kelly the rest of the way.

Before moving to Pittsburgh, Shelton spent two seasons as Minnesota’s bench coach under Paul Molitor and Rocco Baldelli. The Twins interviewed him during the 2018 process that led to the Baldelli hiring. Rowson, who was Minnesota’s hitting coach at the time, also interviewed in 2018. He spent one season on Baldelli’s staff before departing to become bench coach in Miami. He also spent a season in Detroit and has worked as the Yankees’ hitting coach for the last two years. Hayes and Ghiroli write that Shelton and Rowson could be the frontrunners because of their previous ties to the Minnesota organization.

Servais managed the Mariners for parts of nine seasons. Seattle won 51.4% of their games and had five seasons with at least 86 wins during his tenure. The M’s stalled out in the second half of the ’24 campaign, leading them to fire Servais and hire Dan Wilson that August. The Mariners advanced to the ALCS in Wilson’s first full season at the helm. Servais worked as a special assistant for the Padres this year and has also gotten attention from the Orioles for their managerial opening.

Flaherty has worked as Craig Counsell’s bench coach with the Cubs for the last two years. He has also been mentioned as a candidate for the Baltimore and San Diego openings. Royals’ third base coach Vance Wilson, Red Sox’s bench coach Ramón Vázquez, and Padres’ coach Nick Punto had interviewed with the Twins but are now out of the running.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2025 at 7:00pm CDT

The first year of Buster Posey's front office tenure saw the Giants add a pair of stars. The end result was the same league average record that defined the Farhan Zaidi era. That spurred a bold change in the dugout. The Giants fired three-time Manager of the Year Bob Melvin while turning to the college ranks with a splash hire of former University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello.

Guaranteed Contracts

Rafael Devers, DH: $238.5MM through 2033
Willy Adames, SS: $150MM through 2031
Matt Chapman, 3B: $125MM through 2030
Jung Hoo Lee, CF: $85MM through 2029 (can opt out after '27)
Logan Webb, RHP: $70MM through 2028
Robbie Ray, LHP: $25MM through 2026

Option Decisions

Team holds $4MM option on C Tom Murphy ($250K buyout)

2026 guaranteed contracts: $132.75MM
Total future commitments: $693.75MM through 2033

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM
Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM
Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM
Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM
Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MM

Non-tender candidates: Brubaker, Knizner, Lucchesi

Free Agents

Justin Verlander, Wilmer Flores, Dominic Smith, Tom Murphy

After a few years of coming up empty on star pursuits, the Giants landed two impact hitters within the first nine months of Buster Posey's tenure atop baseball operations. They signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal that represented the largest in franchise history. They made an even bigger commitment when they pulled off the Rafael Devers blockbuster in June. The Giants took on more than $240MM on Devers' contract over eight and a half seasons.

While the moves added much needed star talent to the San Francisco lineup, they didn't push the team to a playoff berth. On the heels of another .500 finish, they're now emphasizing a deeper pitching staff. "I think our focus is going to be on pitching, to try to fortify our starting staff. The same goes with the bullpen," Posey told Alex Pavlovic and Laura Britt of NBC Sports Bay Area. "I believe that pitching and defense wins, so that's where we'll probably start looking this offseason when free agency does happen."

That won't happen for another week or two, but the Giants didn't waste any time making significant changes. They fired manager Bob Melvin the day after the end of the regular season. A few weeks later, they zeroed in on Tony Vitello as their hire. There isn't any precedent for a top-tier college baseball coach jumping directly into MLB managing without any coaching or front office experience in pro ball.

There have been a few instances of teams poaching college pitching coaches. There are also examples of the "college to professional head coach" move in the NFL, NHL and NBA. Vitello will be the first test case in Major League Baseball. It remains to be seen how much of Melvin's staff will be retained. Bench coach Ryan Christenson and third base coach Matt Williams were out as soon as Melvin was dismissed.

The front office's focus now turns to the roster. They should have a good amount of payroll space with which to work. They have $132.75MM in guaranteed commitments for six highly-priced players. It's one of the game's lightest arbitration classes, though, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting the group for a little over $10MM. Non-tenders of JT Brubaker, Joey Lucchesi and Andrew Knizner would drop that below $5MM, as Patrick Bailey and Ryan Walker are their only two locks to be offered contracts.

That'd put their Opening Day payroll projection in the $150-155MM range if they filled the rest of the roster with minimum salaried players. RosterResource estimates their luxury tax number around $174MM, which is $70MM below the base threshold. The Giants ducked the luxury tax this year but had exceeded the threshold as recently as 2024. Even if they're not willing to go all the way to $244MM, they should be able to make multiple notable additions.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2025 at 12:30pm CDT

Anthony Franco

Good afternoon, hope you're all well! Looking forward to another of these
Busy week for us with offseason prep so I'm going to keep this one at an hour. Let's get going

Bo nose

I sure hope Bichette's addition to the Jays' roster is not a sentimental move nor one anticipating contributions defensively. Ordinarily a plus bat, the area where, arguably, the Blue Jays are strongest as a team right now, he has been feeble against L.A. over the past two years. That's only six games but, combined with the lay-off, is his best usage more likely to be as a super-sub PH than in any starting defender capacity? I think the noise about using him at 2nd is just that, noise.

Duffy Scliff

Does Toronto realistically have a shot in this series? Does the fact that LAD hasn’t played in awhile hurt them?

Anthony Franco

Dodgers are favorites but it's like 55-45, they've definitely got a shot. L.A.'s bullpen still feels like a weakness and the Jays should put up a much better fight against the rotation than Milwaukee did
We'll see on Bo. Obviously if he can move at all, then playing him at second would be ideal. Use Clement at third with Barger in RF and IKF as a defensive sub late in games. If he's so hobbled that he can't field a ground-ball, well he's at least a better pinch-hitting option than Loperfido would've been

Hopeful Halo

What do you think the angels chances are to land a top starter like Valdez?

Anthony Franco

Would be out of character for Moreno and they've got so many other needs that I don't think using most of the budget on one top starter would be the wisest choice anyway
I could see them more in on Gallen or a boring innings eater like Littell. They'll need to spend something on a center fielder and a third baseman and should at least bring Kenley back to solidify the back of the bullpen

Japanese Players

Who do you think gets the highest contract for Japanese pitchers coming over this year? Imai seems to be the one getting most of the conversation now. I do wonder if he might be getting a little to hyped now? It does seem sometimes we get hyped for a player and they struggle coming over.

Anthony Franco

Yeah it'll be Imai. He's a bit of split camp guy but I'd be surprised if he signs for less than $130M
I think the recent track record for the top NPB starters is pretty good actually. Yamamoto's phenomenal. Tanaka worked out really well, Imanaga was excellent value at 4/53. Jury's still out on Sasaki but for even if he's only a late-inning reliever, that's well worth what the Dodgers paid with the hard capped bonuses

Rangers13

How much do you expect Okamoto to cost?

Anthony Franco

We all landed at three years and between $33-45MM but there's a really wide error bar on the predictions for players (especially hitters) coming over from foreign leagues
Seems like he's at least equally interesting as Jeimer Candelario or Jurickson Profar were though

Ding a ling

Has Dillon Dingler really changed his hit tool? Both FanGraphs and MLB gave him a 30 as a prospect, but this past season, he hit for a respectable average. Who's the real Dillon Dingler?

Anthony Franco

Yeah definitely think he's better than a 30 hit tool. Big step forward in his in-zone contact rate, fewer chases. Hits the ball hard enough to post decent results on balls in play, even if he's probably not turning in a .345 BABIP every year
Feels like a 50 hitter with average pop who plays really strong defense behind the plate. Good player

Mike Yastrzemski

Please find me a home?

Anthony Franco

I fully expect the Royals to bring him back on a one-year deal for $10-12M. He hit well there and it's obviously an ongoing need
If they go elsewhere, Philly, Pittsburgh or Cleveland would work. Wouldn't pick the Giants to do it after they traded him but it's not like Luis Matos/Drew Gilbert seized the RF job. If they focus most of their resources on the rotation and Yaz is out for $8M in February, I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to circle back

Arthur Dent

Any chance the Guardians will entertain offers in Steven Kwan? If so, what would Cleveland be looking for in return?
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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

By Anthony Franco | October 22, 2025 at 7:58pm CDT

The Angels pushed MLB's longest active playoff drought to 11 seasons. They've lost at least 89 games in four consecutive years. While general manager Perry Minasian will get a sixth season, there's another change in the dugout. Kurt Suzuki has a difficult task ahead of his first year as an MLB manager.

Guaranteed Contracts

Mike Trout, RF: $177.25MM through 2030
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP: $42MM through 2027
Anthony Rendon, 3B: $38MM through 2026
Jorge Soler, DH: $13MM through 2026
Robert Stephenson, RHP: $11MM through 2026 (deal includes $2.5MM club option for '27)
Travis d'Arnaud, C: $6MM through 2026

Additional Financial Commitments

Owe $2MM buyout to outrighted 1B Evan White
Owe $250K buyout to released IF Kevin Newman

2026 guaranteed contracts: $126.5MM
Total future commitments: $289.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM
Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM
Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM
Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM
José Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM
Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM
Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MM

Free Agents

Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, Yoán Moncada, Kenley Jansen, Luis García, José Ureña, Andrew Chafin, Hunter Strickland, Chris Taylor

The Angels are in an all too familiar position. They've shown no appetite for a rebuild without having the kind of depth on the MLB roster to compete over a 162-game schedule. They outperformed their run differential in the first half of this past season, allowing them to essentially sit on their hands at the trade deadline. Then they went 19-34 over the final two months -- a record better only than the Rockies and Twins -- to lose 90 games yet again.

GM Perry Minasian gets another opportunity to turn things around. He's going into the final guaranteed season of his contract. He has yet to win more than 77 games. The Angels' issues predate Minasian's hiring and can be laid largely at the feet of owner Arte Moreno, but the front office is surely under some pressure to get better results. The Angels opted not to bring back Ron Washington or interim skipper Ray Montgomery, so they're now on the fourth full-time manager of the Minasian era.

That'll be Kurt Suzuki, a first-time manager with no MLB coaching experience. Sam Blum of The Athletic reports that it's a one-year contract, an atypically short commitment to any manager. Suzuki was highly respected as a longtime big league catcher and has spent the past three seasons working as a special assistant in the Angels' front office. While the jury is out on that hiring, the search process didn't exactly point to the organization having a coherent plan.

As recently as two weeks ago, it looked like Albert Pujols would be the choice. The future Hall of Famer seemed to be Moreno's preferred candidate. Last week, The Athletic's Sam Blum reported that the team had reversed course and would at least interview Suzuki and Torii Hunter as well. Pujols was out a few days later. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that disagreements regarding the coaching staff and compensation were among the reasons the Pujols talks fell apart. Blum wrote that it was mostly a contractual dispute.

The Angels owe Pujols $1MM annually for the next seven seasons as part of the personal services contract that he signed when he retired as a player. It's unclear if the Angels hoped to incorporate that into Pujols' managerial salaries. In any case, it's not a great look for the organization that they were unwilling to meet the asking price of the person they considered the best candidate available. Pujols' salary demands aren't known, but even the most successful managers in MLB make around $8MM annually. That's barely more than the Angels are paying backup catcher Travis d'Arnaud.

None of that is meant as a slight at Suzuki. It's certainly not a given that Pujols would have been a better hire. Yet it's the latest example of Moreno valuing marginal short-term savings over what he ostensibly believed would have been the best choice for the team. That probably doesn't bode well for the more significant roster shakeup that should be in the cards.

Suzuki will have his work cut out for him with what is likely to remain one of the league's weakest rosters. The Angels have questions behind the plate, at both second and third base, and in center field. They have at most two reliable starting pitchers, neither of whom fit at the top of a rotation. Building Reid Detmers back up gives them another potential mid-rotation arm but leaves them with arguably one dependable reliever (Brock Burke). Minasian told Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register and other reporters earlier this month that Detmers "earned" another look as a starter and is expected to be in the Opening Day rotation.

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A’s Could Explore Second/Third Base Markets

By Anthony Franco | October 21, 2025 at 11:37pm CDT

The A’s have around two-thirds of their starting lineup in place going into the offseason. While starting pitching should be the primary focus, they have some questions on the infield that may need to be addressed externally.

Second baseman Zack Gelof underwent surgery after dislocating his left shoulder with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the team announced last week that third baseman Brett Harris underwent surgery to repair the UCL in his left thumb (link via Jason Burke of Sports Illustrated). The injuries cloud what were already the two weakest positions in the lineup heading into the winter.

Martín Gallegos of MLB.com writes that Harris is expected to be ready for Spring Training. General manager David Forst was noncommittal about Gelof’s timeline, telling Gallegos that they’ll need to “wait further in the offseason to know exactly what [that] is.” It doesn’t appear that Gelof is locked into the starting second base job even once he’s healthy. Forst told Gallegos that the A’s will “be open to a lot of possibilities” at each of second and third base.

That presumably includes looking outside the organization. The A’s don’t have great internal options at either spot. Darell Hernaiz got some late-season run at all three infield positions to the left of first base (including everyday shortstop work while Jacob Wilson was out with a broken arm). Hernaiz put a lot of balls in play but didn’t hit the ball hard enough to make an impact, batting .231/.292/.306 across 197 plate appearances.

[Related: A’s Offseason Outlook]

Former first-round pick Max Muncy had a tough rookie season, hitting .214/.259/.379 over 220 trips to the plate. He struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances and lost most of the second half to a broken hand. The 27-year-old Harris got regular third base reps over the final six weeks of the season. He hit .274 with a .349 on-base percentage but didn’t connect on a home run in 32 games. Max Schuemann is the only other utility infielder on the 40-man roster. He’s coming off a .197/.295/.273 showing and isn’t guaranteed to hold his roster spot all winter.

Gelof has shown the most promise of that group. The former second-round pick hit 14 homers with a .267/.337/.504 slash line over 69 games as a rookie in 2023. He has followed that up with consecutive tough years. Gelof led the American League with 188 strikeouts in ’24, causing his average (.211) and on-base percentage (.270) to plummet.

Injuries limited him to 30 MLB games this past season. He sustained a wrist fracture on a Spring Training hit-by-pitch and underwent hamate surgery. A stress reaction in his ribs set him back when he was on a rehab assignment six weeks later. Gelof didn’t make his season debut until July 4. The A’s optioned him to Triple-A a week later and kept him in the minors until late August. He got a few weeks of run before suffering the dislocated shoulder. While the stop and start nature of his season didn’t do him any favors, Gelof’s contact issues worsened. He struck out 46 times in 101 plate appearances while whiffing on more than 40% of his swings.

Top prospect Leo De Vries, the centerpiece of the Mason Miller return, may be the long-term answer at second base. De Vries has come up as a shortstop but could eventually move to the other side of the bag to play alongside Wilson in the middle infield. He’s coming off a .255/.355/.451 showing as an 18-year-old between High-A and Double-A. De Vries has a chance to get to the big leagues next year, but it’s hard to imagine the A’s would carry him on the Opening Day roster. He only has 21 games at Double-A and has no Triple-A experience. A second half debut is more reasonable and would still be remarkable for a player who turned 19 two weeks ago.

The A’s will want to keep one long-term infield spot available for De Vries. Their needs at second and third base mean they could pursue a controllable infielder at one spot while looking for a stopgap at the other. Brendan Donovan and Ozzie Albies each have two years of club control remaining and could be available on the trade market. Josh Jung and Alec Bohm are change-of-scenery candidates at third base. Jung has three years of remaining control and is projected at a $2.9MM salary, though it’s possible the Rangers would prefer to trade him outside the division. Bohm is projected for a salary in the $10MM range for his last arbitration season.

This isn’t a great class for free agent infielders. The A’s obviously aren’t signing Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman. Each of Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres and Ha-Seong Kim (if he opts out) could be available for two or three years, but they’re all going to command eight-figure salaries on an annual basis. Willi Castro, Yoán Moncada, Luis Rengifo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be available on one-year or cheap two-year deals at most. Signing someone from that group would aim a little higher than last winter’s deals with Luis Urías and Gio Urshela but would be broadly similar pickups.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By Anthony Franco | October 21, 2025 at 10:02pm CDT

The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class of expected recipients on the position player side. There’s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.

No-Doubters

Dylan Cease (Padres)
Edwin Díaz (Mets)
Ranger Suárez (Phillies)
Framber Valdez (Astros)

This group is straightforward. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he’d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There’s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.

Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn’t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He’ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.

Likely Recipients

Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)
Michael King (Padres)
Brandon Woodruff (Brewers)

All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it’s not 100% certain they’d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.

King and Woodruff would’ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It’s still likely that he’ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.

Borderline Calls

Jack Flaherty (Tigers)

Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He’ll only become a free agent if he believes he’s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn’t impossible. He’d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he’s not finding the kind of early interest he’d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.

The Tigers would need to decide whether it’s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).

Lucas Giolito (Red Sox)

The Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that’s the case, they’d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It’d fall in the #75 overall range — like the Pivetta pick — if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.

Shota Imanaga (Cubs)

Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

Unlikely/Long Shots

Brad Keller (Cubs)
Tyler Mahle (Rangers)
Robert Suarez (Padres)
Luke Weaver (Yankees)
Devin Williams (Yankees)

This group gets a cursory mention largely because there’s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it’d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.

Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the game’s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn’t make much sense.

Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would’ve been in that group if he’d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.

Ineligible

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would’ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter

By Anthony Franco | October 21, 2025 at 7:30pm CDT

MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Before we move on to the pitching, we’ll wrap up the offensive group by looking at the designated hitters. Every position player technically could play DH, of course, but the vast majority of the class has been covered in one of our prior positional previews. We’ll limit this look to players who are either primary designated hitters or took at least 200 plate appearances at the position this year. Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield

Top of the Class

Kyle Schwarber (33)

With the exception of Shohei Ohtani, Schwarber is the top free agent designated hitter in years. He’s going to become the first pure DH to sign a nine-figure contract after blasting an NL-best 56 home runs and leading MLB with 132 runs driven in. Schwarber played in all 162 games and batted .240/.365/.563 over 724 trips to the plate.

Schwarber hit 38+ homers in all four seasons of the free agent contract he’d signed with Philadelphia. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he’s among the five best power hitters in the sport. He’s also adored in the Philly clubhouse, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made no secret about their desire to keep him. Schwarber is going to decline a qualifying offer and should be in position for a four-year contract that pays more than $25MM annually. There’s a non-zero chance that a team stretches to five years to push the overall guarantee above $130MM.

Regular DH Options

Josh Bell (33)

The ever streaky Bell alternated bad and excellent months throughout the season. He had a .730 OPS or below in each of April, June and August while posting an .860 or better in May, July and September. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 batting line with 22 home runs across 533 plate appearances. For all his inconsistency within seasons, Bell has reliably ended up as a slightly above-average hitter in each of the past three years. He should command another one-year deal.

Starling Marte (37)

After consecutive seasons of declining production, Marte had a bit of a rebound in a part-time role for the Mets. He hit .270/.335/.410 over 329 plate appearances. Marte only hit seven homers and isn’t the kind of power bat that teams will want as an everyday DH, but he can take 250-300 at-bats while playing a part-time corner outfield role.

Andrew McCutchen (39)

Cutch has signed a series of one-year, $5MM deals with the Pirates over the past few seasons. This year’s .239/.333/.367 line with 13 homers is his worst production of his three-year second stint in Pittsburgh. McCutchen still has a strong awareness of the strike zone, but he’s no longer a threat for 25-30 homers at this stage of his career. It seems likely he’ll work out another cheap one-year deal with the Bucs.

Marcell Ozuna (35)

Ozuna is the cheap alternative to Schwarber as a true everyday designated hitter. He’s only one season removed from being one of the sport’s best offensive players. Ozuna combined for 79 home runs with a .289/.364/.552 slash between 2023-24. He’s coming off an underwhelming walk year at age 34, as he regressed to a .232/.355/.400 batting line with 21 homers over 592 trips to the plate. It’s still above-average offensive output but not great production for a player who hasn’t logged a single inning on defense in two years.

The in-season trend lines were not encouraging. Ozuna hit .280/.426/.457 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts through the end of May. For a while, he looked as if he’d be one of the best rental hitters available at the trade deadline. He then went through a three-month slog in which he hit .185/.300/.362 over 278 plate appearances. That killed any chance of the Braves getting more than marginal salary relief, so they kept him for the stretch run. Ozuna rebounded somewhat to hit .261 in September, but he struck out at a 32% clip and only connected on one home run in the season’s final month. He’ll be limited to a one-year deal that might be half of the $16MM salary he collected this past season.

Jorge Polanco (32)

Polanco’s contract technically contains a $6MM player option, but he’s going to decline that and hit free agency. The Mariners surprisingly re-signed him on the heels of a disappointing 2024 season. Seattle attributed the down year to a knee injury through which he’d played that required postseason meniscus surgery. They’ve been proven right with a resurgent year from the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco drilled 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .265/.326/.495 line.

While Polanco can still hit, he’ll face questions about his defensive workload over 162 games. Seattle initially planned to play him at third base, believing that not needing to navigate the second base bag would be easier on his knee. That lasted five games before renewed soreness and an oblique injury led the M’s to use him as a full-time designated hitter for a while. He began mixing in second base work in June and played there regularly for the final three weeks of the season. He’s a long shot candidate for a qualifying offer but will likely hit free agency without draft compensation. He should get at least a two-year deal and has a chance for three.

Bench Bats

Wilmer Flores (34)

Flores got out to a strong start to the season, popping seven home runs with a penchant for clutch hits in April. He had a pedestrian .245/.315/.365 batting line from the beginning of May onwards. Flores has made a career as a versatile defender who hits left-handed pitching, but he’s essentially limited to DH and first base at this point. He only has a .228/.278/.371 slash against southpaws over the past two seasons and may need to take a minor league deal.

Mitch Garver (35)

Garver logged nearly 400 innings behind the plate as Cal Raleigh’s backup. The Mariners signed him with the expectation that he’d be their primary designated hitter, but he hit .187/.290/.341 in 201 games over two seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Justin Turner (41)

Turner got $6MM from the Cubs last offseason to work as a veteran righty bat off the bench. He hit .219/.288/.314 over 80 games in his age-40 season and is probably looking at a minor league deal if he continues playing.

Jesse Winker (32)

Winker landed a $7.5MM guarantee to re-sign with the Mets last offseason. He’ll probably be limited to minor league offers this winter after oblique and back injuries limited him to 26 games.

Player Options

Joc Pederson (34)

Pederson will exercise a $16.5MM player option with Texas after hitting .181/.285/.328 over 306 plate appearances. The Rangers will need a huge rebound from a player who’d hit .275/.393/.515 with the Diamondbacks in 2024.

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