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Jurickson Profar Is Rewarding The Padres’ Faith

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The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.

Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.

Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.

Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.

There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.

Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.

He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.

San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.

Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Place Lucas Erceg On IL With Forearm Strain

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TODAY: The A’s have now made it official, placing Erceg on the IL today and also optioned right-hander Tyler Ferguson to Triple-A. In corresponding moves, right-hander Dany Jiménez and left-hander Brady Basso were recalled. Additionally, infielder Tyler Nevin was outrighted to Triple-A after being designated for assignment earlier this week.

MAY 30: The A’s will place setup man Lucas Erceg on the 15-day injured list, manager Mark Kotsay told reporters on Thursday afternoon (via the MLB.com injury tracker). The right-hander experienced forearm tightness while warming up on Tuesday. He’s headed back to Oakland for further evaluation.

While Erceg isn’t as dominant as late-inning bullpen mate Mason Miller, he has been a key leverage arm in his own right. He’s carrying a 2.86 ERA with a 31% strikeout rate over 22 innings. Half the batted balls he has allowed have been hit on the ground. Erceg has averaged nearly 99 MPH on his fastball and has gotten swinging strikes on almost 13% of his offerings. He’s second on the team behind Austin Adams with eight holds and has picked up a pair of saves.

This has the makings of a breakout season for Erceg, who turned 29 earlier this month. He began his career as a reasonably well-regarded third base prospect in the Milwaukee system. When his bat plateaued in Triple-A, the Brewers moved him to the mound. Milwaukee abandoned the experiment when they traded Erceg to Oakland for cash last May. The A’s lived with some inconsistent results in his rookie campaign — a 4.75 ERA with a huge 14.3% walk rate over 55 innings — and have been rewarded through this year’s first couple months.

A healthy Erceg would make for an interesting trade candidate this summer. The A’s certainly don’t need to move him. He has five more seasons of team control and won’t get to arbitration until the end of 2025. There’s clear appeal to a Miller/Erceg pairing in the late innings. If the A’s decide to stretch Miller back out as a starter next year, Erceg could be their first choice to close.

Still, there’s also an argument for trying to sell high on Erceg. His winding career path means he’s well into what would typically be a pitcher’s prime (although it’s possible he’ll develop later than most because of his relative inexperience on the mound). Relief pitching tends to be volatile and Erceg’s command is still a work in progress. While this season’s 9.2% walk rate is average for a reliever, he had generally walked between 13-15% of opponents before this year.

Trade speculation is conditional on him being on the mound in July. He’s set to be out at least into the middle of June. The upcoming testing will reveal whether he’s in line for a longer absence and if there are any structural concerns.

Alek Manoah Headed For Second Opinion, Likely Facing Lengthy Absence

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May 31: Manoah is headed for a second opinion on his elbow, reports TSN’s Scott Mitchell. His initial diagnosis isn’t yet known, but Mitchell adds that it’s expected Manoah will be sidelined for an “extended period of time.”

May 29: Alek Manoah left tonight’s start against the White Sox in the second inning. The team announced he experienced elbow discomfort. Manager John Schneider told the Toronto beat after the game that Manoah will get an MRI tomorrow (X link via MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson).

Manoah lost the first month of the season after battling shoulder discomfort during the spring. He was reinstated on May 5 and has taken the ball five times. The burly right-hander was out to an encouraging start to the season, working to a 3.70 ERA with 26 strikeouts and eight walks across 24 1/3 innings. Manoah wasn’t back to his Cy Young finalist form of 2022, but it was a substantial improvement over last year’s disappointing season.

There’s little to be done now beyond hoping that imaging doesn’t reveal any structural concerns. Manoah’s fastball sat in the typical 92-93 MPH range during the first inning. He didn’t top 90 MPH in the second inning until throwing Dominic Fletcher a 91.4 MPH sinker to start his at-bat. Manoah seemed to wince after releasing that pitch and departed the game following a mound visit (video provided on X by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Trevor Richards came in for 3 1/3 scoreless innings of emergency relief to help Toronto to a 3-1 victory.

The Jays are working with limited rotation depth behind their front five of Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Manoah. Offseason signee Yariel Rodríguez has been on the injured list since April 30 with back inflammation. Bowden Francis, who opened the season in the rotation when Manoah was on the shelf, has been out for the last month with forearm tendinitis.

Rodríguez and Francis are each on rehab stints with Triple-A Buffalo. While both pitchers should be back before long, they’ve each got questions about their viability as starters. Rodríguez barely pitched in 2023 as he went through the process of applying for free agency. He pitched out of the bullpen in Japan two seasons ago. Francis was rocked in his first two MLB starts this year and quickly kicked to multi-inning relief, where he had more success last season.

Paolo Espino, who has a 4.81 ERA over eight starts with Buffalo, is the only other traditional starter on the 40-man roster. Toronto brought back old friend Aaron Sanchez on a minor league deal earlier this month, but he has given up 17 runs in 10 2/3 Triple-A innings. Beau Sulser, another recent non-roster acquisition, has surrendered 12 runs in 14 1/3 Triple-A innings in a swing role. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is back on the minor league IL because of a nerve issue in his elbow.

If Manoah needs to go on the injured list, Espino seems the logical choice to hold the fort until Rodríguez is ready to return. Toronto’s rotation would look perilously thin in the event of any other injuries. While the Jays benefitted from remarkable rotation health last season,  they relied on Richards to kick off a few bullpen games last summer while Manoah was in the minors. Perhaps they’d look at that as another short-term solution, but starting pitching would likely be a deadline priority if the Jays are in the postseason picture in July.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Yankees' deadline needs, outfield trade possibilities for the Royals, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Diamondbacks' slow start, Tarik Skubal's dominance, Aaron Judge's potential Hall of Fame track and the Cy Young candidacies of star closers Emmanuel Clase and Mason Miller.

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Reds Outright Brett Kennedy

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The Reds have sent right-hander Brett Kennedy outright to Triple-A Louisville, per the transaction log at MLB.com. Cincinnati designated him for assignment on Tuesday when they reinstated Alex Young from the 60-day injured list.

Kennedy only spent a few days on the 40-man roster and didn’t get into an MLB game. He made five appearances for the Reds a year ago, allowing 13 runs over 18 innings. Cincinnati outrighted him off their roster at season’s end but brought him back on a minor league deal during the winter. He has spent the bulk of the year working from the Louisville rotation. The 29-year-old has tossed 40 2/3 innings over eight starts, struggling to a 6.86 ERA in an offensive Triple-A setting.

While Kennedy has never missed many bats, he’s not afraid to attack the zone. He has walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters this year and has a 7.9% walk percentage over parts of five Triple-A campaigns. The Reds have kept him around as a strike-throwing depth option who can make a spot start or work in long relief. Kennedy has the right to elect free agency because he has been outrighted a few times in his career, but it seems likely he’ll head back to Louisville in hopes of getting another MLB look during the year.

Blue Jays To Acquire Ryan Burr From Phillies

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The Phillies are trading minor league reliever Ryan Burr to the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). The return isn’t clear, but trades of this nature tend to be for cash considerations.

Burr signed a minor league contract with Philadelphia in January. He was not on their 40-man roster and won’t need to immediately occupy a spot on the 40-man for the Jays (unless his contract contained some kind of upward mobility clause that spurred the trade). Burr has posted huge numbers for the Phils’ top farm team, so Toronto could decide to quickly call him up.

If Burr does get a look with the Jays, it’d be his first MLB work since 2022. The right-hander pitched in parts of four seasons with the White Sox between 2019-22. He had his best year in 2021, turning in a 2.45 ERA in a personal-high 36 2/3 innings. Chicago released him the following season after he suffered an injury in Triple-A. He pitched in the minors with the Rays last year, working to a 3.09 ERA over 23 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay never called him up, leading him to the Phils via minor league free agency.

He’s out to an even better start with Philadelphia’s affiliate. Burr has allowed only four runs in 16 2/3 innings. He has punched out 29 of 67 opposing hitters, a massive 43.3% clip, against a 7.5% walk rate. He has fanned nearly a third of his opponents in 40 Triple-A frames over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia’s bullpen has been around average at preventing runs, working to a 3.90 ERA that ranks 16th in MLB. They’re seventh in strikeout rate, fanning nearly a quarter of batters faced. Toronto’s relief group has been much shaker. They’re 27th with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and have allowed 4.77 earned runs per nine. Only the Rockies and Rangers have a higher bullpen ERA.

The Phils only have two relievers with minor league options: Orion Kerkering and Gregory Soto. Kerkering is one of their best relievers, while Soto’s a veteran with a power arm who is playing on a $5MM salary. Toronto has already optioned the struggling Erik Swanson and could send down one of Génesis Cabrera, Nate Pearson or Zach Pop if they want to give Burr a look against MLB hitters. Burr has a pair of options, so the Jays could shuttle him back and forth from Triple-A if they add him to the 40-man roster.

Yankees Shut Down Clarke Schmidt For 4-6 Weeks

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The Yankees are shutting down starter Clarke Schmidt for 4-6 weeks. Manager Aaron Boone announced the news to the New York beat before tonight’s game with the Angels (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Schmidt underwent an MRI yesterday and landed on the 15-day injured list with a lat strain this afternoon.

Schmidt’s absence will extend well beyond the minimum. He’s almost certainly out through the All-Star Break at this point. There’s a good chance he doesn’t return until after the trade deadline. Even in the best case scenario where Schmidt is able to begin a throwing program in the first half of July, he’ll need multiple weeks to return to MLB readiness. He’ll go through bullpen sessions and live batting practice before heading on a minor league rehab stint that’ll likely require at least two or three starts.

It halts what had been an excellent start to the season for the South Carolina product. Schmidt has a 2.52 ERA over 11 starts, punching out more than 27% of opposing hitters. He had performed at a back-of-the-rotation level in 2023, when he allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 33 appearances. Schmidt was building a reasonable All-Star case, a major reason why the Yankees have an AL-best 38-19 record.

[Related: The New and Improved Clarke Schmidt]

New York’s rotation has been stellar despite losing Gerrit Cole to elbow inflammation in Spring Training. Only the Phillies have a better ERA from their starting staff than the Yankees’ 2.69 mark. New York starters also trail just Philadelphia in strikeout rate and are behind the Phils, Mariners and Royals in innings.

That’s a remarkable couple months for a team operating without the defending AL Cy Young winner. They have had essentially perfect health following Cole’s injury. Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Schmidt have taken all but one start. The Yankees will face some rotation uncertainty for the first time since March.

Cody Poteet took the lone other start, working six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians as part of a doubleheader on April 13. Poteet is the first choice to step into Schmidt’s rotation spot; Boone announced that the right-hander will take the ball in San Francisco on Saturday. While Poteet has been on the minor league injured list for a week because of a blister, he’s expected to be ready two days from now.

The Yankees signed Poteet to a split contract in January. The 29-year-old righty turned in decent numbers in 58 2/3 innings for the Marlins between 2021-22. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August ’22, leading Miami to cut him loose. That the Yankees gave him a 40-man roster spot was a surprise, but he’s thus far rewarded their faith with an impressive two months in Triple-A. Over seven starts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he has a 4.05 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout percentage and a solid 8.1% walk rate.

Poteet may only need to hold a starting spot for a couple weeks. Cole has been throwing for more than a month and is closing in on a rehab assignment. Boone said that the six-time All-Star could head out on a minor league stint as soon as next week (relayed on X by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). He’ll need to make multiple starts but could be back at Yankee Stadium by the latter half of June.

Schmidt’s injury doesn’t immediately look as if it’ll impact the Yankees’ approach to the deadline. By late July, New York could have a rotation of Cole, Rodón, Stroman, Cortes and Gil with a Schmidt return on the horizon. That’d be one of the strongest units in the majors. Any more injuries would test the depth, though, particularly with Gil’s 63 1/3 innings already well beyond his combined workload of 2022-23 because of May ’22 Tommy John surgery.

Garrett Whitlock To Undergo Internal Brace Procedure

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MAY 30: Whitlock will indeed have the internal brace procedure today, Cora tells reporters. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay the news on X.

MAY 25: Whitlock is tentatively set to undergo an internal brace procedure, he told The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey and other reporters.  The details will be confirmed after more testing this coming week.  Assuming the surgery takes place as planned, Whitlock will miss roughly 11-12 months in recovery, as opposed to the longer 13-15 month timeline associated with Tommy John surgeries.

MAY 20: Garrett Whitlock has suffered ligament damage in his throwing elbow, Red Sox manager Alex Cora announced to reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive). The Boston right-hander will go for further evaluation tomorrow to determine whether he can avoid surgery.

This was the outcome which the team and its fans feared last week. Whitlock reported elbow soreness coming out of a rehab start for Triple-A Worcester on Wednesday. He’d been working back from an oblique strain that had shelved him since the middle of April and had been hoping to return to the MLB team in the coming days.

Instead, there looks to be a good chance that his 2024 season is over. If Whitlock does need surgery, it would threaten his ’25 campaign as well. Whitlock has already undergone a Tommy John procedure in his career. That came back in 2019 when he was pitching in the Yankees farm system. Whitlock also had two elbow-related injured list stints in 2023, the latter of which cost him five weeks between July and August. Neither of those involved any ligament damage, but this injury unfortunately appears to be more serious.

The 27-year-old hasn’t had a full season as a starting pitcher since his time in the minors. He was an excellent multi-inning relief weapon for his first two MLB campaigns. Boston gave him 10 starts last year before his July injured list placement. Whitlock worked out of the bullpen after returning. The Sox moved him back into the starting staff to open this year. He allowed only four runs in 18 1/3 innings prior to the oblique injury.

Cooper Criswell has stepped into the rotation behind Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck. Signed to a $1MM contract last winter after being non-tendered by the Rays, Criswell has been quietly excellent through his first 29 1/3 frames for the Sox. He owns a 2.76 ERA with a solid 23.3% strikeout percentage and a tidy 5.8% walk rate.

Criswell, who will take the ball tomorrow against his old team in Tampa Bay, should hold a rotation spot for the foreseeable future. Starting pitching could be an area that first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff look to address around the deadline, assuming they hang in postseason contention. Boston blanked the Rays this evening to pull back to .500 at 24-24. They’re long shots to stick with the Yankees and Orioles at the top of the AL East but are firmly in the Wild Card picture.

While Boston’s rotation has been a surprising strength thus far, their front five is light on experience. Pivetta is the only member of the group who has ever started 30 MLB games in a season. He and Bello are the only ones who have surpassed the 130-inning threshold at the big league level.

That lack of volume is a big reason that Boston signed Lucas Giolito, who had been one of the league’s most durable pitchers, to a two-year free agent deal. Giolito immediately down with a partially torn UCL in Spring Training. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season.

Even if Whitlock is able to avoid going under the knife, he’s certainly in for a long-term absence. The Sox will move him to the 60-day injured list when they need a 40-man roster spot. Whitlock, who signed an extension back in 2022, is playing this season on a $3.25MM salary. He’ll make successive salaries of $5.25MM and $7.25MM over the next two seasons. Boston holds a $10.5MM option on his services for the 2027 campaign.

Brooks Raley Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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May 30: Raley underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday and had an internal brace installed in his elbow as well, the team announced.

May 21: Mets reliever Brooks Raley will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, reports Tim Healey of Newsday. That’ll end his 2024 season and likely cost him at least the first half of the ’25 campaign.

It could also mark the end of Raley’s time in Queens. The 35-year-old southpaw (36 in June) is set to hit free agency next offseason. Raley is playing this season on a $6.5MM salary after the Mets exercised a club option at the start of last winter. That was an easy decision considering how well Raley pitched between 2022-23.

In 126 appearances over that stretch, he turned in a 2.74 earned run average behind a 26.8% strikeout rate. The Mets received some trade calls at last summer’s deadline (and quite likely again over the winter) but elected to hold onto him as their top left-handed setup option.

That’ll unfortunately go down as a mostly lost investment. Raley had an excellent start to the season, working seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts over eight appearances. He landed on the injured list on April 21 with what ultimately proved to a season-ending injury. While the Mets initially diagnosed the issue as inflammation and projected a short-term absence, later testing revealed ligament damage.

Without Raley, the Mets are light on left-handed relievers. Jake Diekman is their clear top option. The 37-year-old has made 20 appearances and posted his typical blend of huge strikeout and walk tallies. Diekman has punched out 23 of his 70 opponents (nearly 33%) while issuing 14 walks (20%). He owns a 3.86 ERA across 16 1/3 innings. The veteran is an effective reliever overall, but he’s probably miscast as a team’s best left-hander.

Josh Walker has been on and off the active roster throughout the season. He’s currently in a middle relief role. Danny Young is on optional assignment to Triple-A Syracuse. Tyler Jay saw a bit of MLB time early in the season and remains in the organization after being outrighted from the 40-man roster a month ago. The Mets could welcome swingman David Peterson back from the 60-day injured list as soon as next week. Whether he’ll work from the bullpen or grab a rotation spot — likely in place of the struggling Adrian Houser — is still to be determined.

Raley has spent the last month on the 15-day IL. The Mets can move him to the 60-day at any time that they need to open a spot on the 40-man roster (though they already have two vacancies in that regard). His camp will presumably look for a two-year deal when he hits the open market, likely with a low base salary in the first season.

Mets To Designate Jorge Lopez For Assignment

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The Mets are designating reliever Jorge López for assignment, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (X link). The move comes after the right-hander tossed his glove into the stands following a rough outing this afternoon against the Dodgers. After the game, López said he didn’t regret the incident and called the Mets “the worst team in probably the whole f***ing MLB” (video provided on X by SNY).

López, a native of Puerto Rico, conducted his postgame media scrum in English. While it was initially unclear whether he intended to call the Mets “the worst team” in the league or if called himself “the worst teammate,” he answered “probably” to a follow-up question when asked whether he called the Mets “the worst team.” MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that López subsequently indicated he intended to criticize both himself and the club — calling himself the worst teammate on the league’s worst team.

The Mets may very well have been prepared to move on from López even before his comments. Called on to pitch in the eighth inning with the team trailing 5-3, he surrendered a double to Miguel Vargas that scored a pair of inherited runners. López retired Mookie Betts before serving up a two-run homer to Shohei Ohtani. He was ejected during the next at-bat after arguing with third base umpire Ramon De Jesus on a check swing. López flipped his glove over the protective netting on his way off the field. After the game, manager Carlos Mendoza called López’s behavior “not acceptable” and said the team would address it internally (video from SNY).

A veteran of nine MLB seasons, López inked a $2MM free agent deal with the Mets in December. This afternoon notwithstanding, he had serviceable run prevention numbers. In 26 1/3 innings, he turned in a 3.76 earned run average. López only punched out 17.2% of opponents while walking nearly 10% of batters faced. While he probably wouldn’t have been cut loose if not for today’s glove toss and postgame comments, it wasn’t a resoundingly impressive performance either.

López was an All-Star with the Orioles back in 2022, when he turned in a 1.68 ERA with 19 saves in 48 1/3 frames for Baltimore. The O’s controversially traded him to the Twins at the deadline. López’s production plummeted after the deal, as he turned in a 4.81 ERA in Minnesota. He continued to struggle after being swapped to the Marlins last summer and in a late-season return to Baltimore.

The Mets are riding a three-game losing streak and have dropped 19 of 26 this month. They’re a season-worst 11 games below .500 and ahead of only the Rockies and Marlins in the National League. The bullpen entered play today with a 4.42 ERA in May, ranking 21st in MLB. They lost the struggling Edwin Díaz to the injured list before the game. Adam Ottavino, Reed Garrett and Jake Diekman are taking high-leverage work.

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