A’s Have Two Rotation Spots Up For Grabs In Camp
The A’s added back-end starter Aaron Civale on a $6MM free agent contract this week. He slots behind Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs as experienced arms in an otherwise young rotation. Manager Mark Kotsay suggested on Wednesday that while the three veterans were locked into starting spots, camp battles could decide the final two roles. “It’s definitely an open competition,” the fourth-year skipper told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. “I think we do have some depth this year that we haven’t had in the past.”
Of the A’s returning starters, only Springs and Severino got to 100 MLB innings last season. Jacob Lopez led the way with 92 2/3 frames across 21 appearances (17 starts). He was followed in MLB workload by J.T. Ginn, Luis Morales, Gunnar Hoglund, Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins. Morales and Lopez had the most success and enter camp as the presumptive favorites.
The 23-year-old Morales turned in a 3.14 earned run average over his first 48 2/3 MLB frames. His 21.6% strikeout percentage and 9% walk rate weren’t as impressive, and his fly-ball profile led to some home run trouble. The underlying numbers would suggest he’s a regression candidate, but he could certainly offset that by missing more bats in his first full season. Morales has a 97 mph average fastball and a potential plus breaking ball.
Lopez is a soft-tossing lefty who turns 28 during Spring Training. That points to a lower ceiling than Morales possesses, but he arguably showed more in his rookie season. Lopez punched out 28.3% of opponents behind an above-average 11.8% swinging strike rate. He finished the year with a 4.08 ERA that is skewed by a nine-run drubbing that he took in Seattle just before he went on the injured list with a season-ending flexor strain. He carried a 3.28 earned run average into that appearance.
It was a relatively small sample and it’s easy to see potential downside. Lopez is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’ll spend the next two seasons in the most hitter-friendly home park outside Colorado. A 90-91 mph average fastball doesn’t give him much margin for error. Home runs are likely to be an issue, but Lopez has always missed more bats than his velocity might suggest thanks to a quality slider and plus command. Gallegos writes that Lopez is slightly behind schedule because of the late-season forearm issue but should have time to log a full Spring Training workload.
Ginn probably has the best chance to push one of Morales or Lopez for a season-opening rotation spot. He fanned a quarter of opponents against an 8% walk rate while getting ground-balls more than half the time. A lot of the fly balls that he did give up cleared the fences. Sutter Health Park did Ginn no favors, as 12 of his 17 home runs allowed came at home. He had a near-7.00 ERA in Sacramento compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. The cumulative result was a 5.08 mark across 90 1/3 innings.
Barnett was called up late in the season. He was hit hard over five starts, posting a near-7.00 ERA through 22 1/3 innings. He has shown intriguing stuff, headlined by a mid-90s fastball and quality slider, but the command has been inconsistent throughout his minor league career. Hoglund is a former first-round pick whose prospect stock had tumbled after Tommy John surgery. He seemed to put himself back on the map with a strong six-start run in Triple-A, but major league opponents teed off over his first six career outings. He underwent season-ending hip surgery in June.
Perkins started four of 12 appearances after being called up in June. He suffered a season-ending shoulder strain in August. He sat around 96 mph on the fastball and got excellent results on a mid-80s breaking ball. Perkins’ minor league numbers suggest he might be better suited in the bullpen, however. He walked 11.3% of Triple-A opponents and has posted double digit walk rates in three straight seasons.
Luis Medina and Joey Estes have some MLB experience and hold 40-man roster spots. Medina is out of options and missed all of last season rehabbing Tommy John surgery. He’s probably ticketed for long relief to open the season, while Estes could be on the fringe of the 40-man roster. Medina is the only member of this group aside from the three veterans who cannot be optioned.
The highest-upside arms in the organization are still in the minor leagues. Gage Jump and Jamie Arnold are two of the top pitching prospects in the sport. Jump has an outside chance to break camp after posting a 3.64 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents over 20 Double-A appearances. He’s not on the 40-man roster, but each of Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang are. They’re solid prospects (Nett and Baez, in particular) who have Double-A experience and could get some consideration to break camp if they really impress during Spring Training.
Twins To Sign Julian Merryweather To Minor League Deal
The Twins are bringing in reliever Julian Merryweather on a minor league contract, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The client of Warner Sports Management will be in camp as a non-roster invitee. Minnesota also agreed to a minor league deal with Liam Hendriks this evening.
Merryweather made 21 appearances for the Cubs last season. He was hit hard, surrendering 13 runs (12 earned) across 18 2/3 innings. Merryweather struck out 15 while issuing 11 walks. Chicago released him at the end of May. Merryweather finished the season on successive minor league contracts with the Mets and Brewers. He didn’t find much more success in Triple-A, where he was tagged for a 5.87 ERA across 23 innings.
The 34-year-old righty has pitched parts of six MLB seasons between the Blue Jays and Cubs. He had one above-average season, firing 72 frames of 3.38 ERA ball in 2023. The past two years have been a struggle, and he holds a 4.72 mark over 158 1/3 career innings. Merryweather has a 96 mph fastball with a good slider but has never had strong command. He’s also battled various injuries, including 2018 Tommy John surgery and oblique/abdominal issues in 2020 and ’22, respectively.
As was the case for Hendriks, it’s easy to see the appeal for Merryweather in signing with Minnesota. There’s a strong opportunity for non-roster bullpen arms. Minnesota has a patchwork bullpen that probably only has four locks: Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk. Trade pickup Eric Orze should enter camp with a good chance to win a job. Jackson Kowar is out of options and needs to make the team or be designated for assignment. Kowar has a career 8.21 ERA, while everyone else aside from Rogers and Topa have a minor league option remaining. Dan Altavilla, Matt Bowman and Grant Hartwig are also in camp as non-roster invitees.
Twins, Liam Hendriks Agree To Minor League Deal
The Twins have an agreement to bring veteran reliever Liam Hendriks back to Minnesota, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a minor league deal with an invite to MLB camp for the client of ALIGND Sports Agency, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
It’s a homecoming for Hendriks, who signed with the Twins as an amateur out of Australia and made his MLB debut at Target Field in September 2011. Hendriks spent parts of three seasons with the club, struggling to a 6.06 ERA in 30 appearances (28 starts). The Twins designated him for assignment over the 2013-14 offseason and lost him on waivers.
Hendriks bounced around the league for a few years before a full-time move to the bullpen and accompanying velocity spike took him to a much higher level. The righty broke out as an elite closer in Oakland and continued on that pace after signing a four-year free agent deal with the White Sox. He earned three All-Star nods, finished top 10 in Cy Young balloting in consecutive seasons (2020-21) and led the American League in saves.
The past couple seasons have been far more challenging. Hendriks famously was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in the 2022-23 winter, though he quickly beat the disease. His return to the field was unfortunately cut short by an elbow injury. Hendriks underwent Tommy John surgery and has barely pitched over the last three seasons split between Chicago and Boston. He missed all of ’24 and was limited to 14 MLB appearances last year by a series of setbacks.
Elbow inflammation shelved him early in the year. He landed on the injured list at the end of May with an abdominal strain. Hendriks attempted to ramp up in September but felt renewed forearm discomfort and underwent ulnar surgery that ended his season. The Red Sox bought him out after just 13 2/3 innings of 11-run ball.
Although he settled for a minor league contract, Hendriks has a good chance to make the team. Minnesota has a patchwork bullpen that probably only has four locks: Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk. Trade pickup Eric Orze should enter camp with a good chance to win a job, while Jackson Kowar is out of options and needs to make the team or be designated for assignment. Kowar has a career 8.21 ERA, while everyone else aside from Rogers and Topa have a minor league option remaining.
As a player with six years of service time who finished last season on Boston’s major league roster, Hendriks hit the market as an Article XX(b) free agent. That means this deal comes with a trio of automatic opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement. He can trigger an out clause five days before Opening Day, on May 1, or on June 1. If he does, the Twins would have two days to either promote him or grant him his release.
Padres Sign Miguel Andujar
Feb. 11: The Padres formally announced Andujar’s one-year deal and 2027 mutual option this morning. He’s passed his physical and is in camp with his new team.
Feb. 4: The Padres reportedly have an agreement with free agent corner infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. It’s a $4MM guarantee that includes a $1.5MM salary for the upcoming season. That suggests there’s a $2.5MM option buyout. The CAA client can earn another $2MM+ via incentives. San Diego has a couple openings on the 40-man roster and won’t need to make any corresponding moves.
It’s a tidy bit of business for the Padres, who add a strong right-handed bat on a modest contract. Andujar, 31 next month, put together an excellent .318/.352/.470 slash line over 94 games a year ago. He split the year between the A’s and Reds, so he was certainly the beneficiary of favorable home parks, but that’s above-average production in any stadium.
It was Andujar’s best season since his 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up campaign when he played for the Yankees. He has been a part-time player for the majority of his career and didn’t get to 200 plate appearances in any season from 2019-23. He tallied 319 trips to the plate while putting up a league average .285/.320/.377 mark for the A’s in 2024. Andujar weathered a pair of injuries that year, undergoing an early-season meniscus repair on his right knee and a season-ending core procedure in August.
The A’s nevertheless tendered Andujar a $3MM contract for his final season of arbitration. He hit .298/.329/.436 in 60 games before being traded to Cincinnati. He really turned things on upon landing with the Reds, running a .359/.400/.544 line over 110 plate appearances to close the season. He hit well against pitchers of either handedness but particularly teed off on left-handers. The righty-swinging Andujar has been a plus against southpaws throughout his career, batting .297/.332/.475 in 521 plate appearances with the platoon advantage.
It’s somewhat surprising that strong finish didn’t result in a better market. Although teams obviously weren’t going to expect him to keep up the pace he showed with the Reds, his track record against lefties and plus contact skills make him a strong bat to have on the bench. There are enough red flags in the profile that clubs seemingly still view him as a lower-end utility piece. Andujar has an aggressive approach and isn’t going to take many walks. He doesn’t have huge exit velocities and is largely dependent on an elevated average on balls in play to carry the offensive profile.
Andujar also has an extensive injury history going back to the 2019 labrum repair in his right shoulder that wiped out his second season in the majors. He had the aforementioned pair of surgeries in ’24 and missed five weeks last year with a right oblique strain. He also doesn’t have a clear defensive fit. He’s a subpar defender at third base and in the outfield. Andujar has a strong arm but isn’t a good runner or athlete.
That’s probably not a huge concern for San Diego, who projects to use him mostly as a first baseman or designated hitter. Manny Machado is locked in at third, while Ramón Laureano and Fernando Tatis Jr. have the corner outfield spots. Andujar should be a good complement to lefty hitters Gavin Sheets and Sung-mun Song, who had been lined up as the primary options at first base and designated hitter. He can step in for Sheets at first base against southpaws while still getting a decent amount of playing time at DH versus righty pitching, as Song is expected to bounce around the diamond to keep other players fresh.
The lower salary and mutual option is a common tactic for San Diego. It allows them to kick a little over half the contract back to the end of the season. RosterResource calculates their cash payroll around $221MM. Their luxury tax estimate is much higher, landing around $266MM. They’ll be paying the luxury tax for a second straight season. They’re taxed at a 30% rate on spending between $244MM and $264MM, which comes out to a $6MM hit. That jumps to 42% for their next $20MM. Andujar’s salary is low enough that it won’t much impact their CBT ledger, as they’re only paying around $1.25MM in taxes to add him. The Padres could still look for a bench bat and a back-end starter as Spring Training approaches.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post was first on the agreement. ESPN’s Jeff Passan had the one-year, $4MM terms. Heyman reported the mutual option and salary. Will Sammon of The Athletic reported the upwards of $2MM in bonuses.
Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images.
Rays Trade Brett Wisely Back To Braves
The Braves announced they’ve reacquired infielder Brett Wisely from the Rays for cash. Atlanta placed reliever Joe Jiménez on the 60-day injured list with what they termed a “left articular cartilage injury” to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Atlanta had traded Wisely to Tampa Bay a month ago.
Wisely finished the ’25 season in Atlanta. The Braves had claimed him off waivers from the Giants with a couple weeks remaining in the season. He appeared in four games, starting three of them at second base, and went 0-6 with three walks. The rest of Wisely’s MLB work came in San Francisco, where he hit .217/.263/.324 across 457 plate appearances spanning three seasons.
The lefty-hitting infielder has a better minor league track record. He’s a .275/.372/.433 hitter in more than 800 Triple-A plate appearances. Wisely has shown decent contact skills and a reasonable plate approach but doesn’t have much power in a 5’9″ frame. His exit velocities are at the lower end of the league and he has seven home runs in 168 career games.
Wisely is stretched defensively at shortstop but has logged nearly 300 career innings there. He has experience throughout the infield and in both left and center field. Second base is his most natural position, and both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have graded him well in a little more than 700 innings.
The 26-year-old is out of minor league options, meaning the Braves need to keep him on the big league club or send him back into DFA limbo. They designated him for assignment a month ago and flipped him to the Rays, the team that initially drafted him back in 2019. Tampa Bay squeezed him off the roster when they traded for outfielder Victor Mesa Jr. last week.
The intervening acquisition of utility player Ben Williamson in the Brendan Donovan trade made it unlikely Wisely would break camp. There’s a better opportunity in Atlanta with Ha-Seong Kim beginning the season on the injured list. That pushed Mauricio Dubón into the starting shortstop spot. Jorge Mateo is their top utility option, but Wisely could push Nacho Alvarez Jr. for the final bench spot.
The corresponding move confirms that Jiménez is in for another extended absence. The big righty missed the entire 2025 season after undergoing surgery to repair cartilage damage in his left knee the previous November. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos announced early this offseason that Jiménez required another procedure. Anthopoulos called that a “cleanup” but didn’t provide any kind of return timeline.
Jiménez evidently isn’t going to be available before the end of May at the earliest. He’s making $9MM in the final season of a three-year free agent contract that started promisingly but has been beset by the injuries. The Braves also placed starter Spencer Schwellenbach on the 60-day IL this morning after revealing that he experienced elbow inflammation during his preparation for Spring Training. AJ Smith-Shawver, Danny Young and Kim are 60-day IL candidates themselves, so the Braves will probably be busy on the waiver wire and potential DFA trades over the next few weeks.
Shane Bieber To Begin Season On Injured List; Bowden Francis To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The defending American League champions provided a handful of discouraging injury updates at the first day of Spring Training. In addition to revealing that Anthony Santander will miss the majority of the season rehabbing shoulder surgery, they announced a couple bits of news on the pitching side.
Shane Bieber will begin the season on the 15-day injured list, manager John Schneider told reporters (links via Mitch Bannon of The Athletic and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Jays are slow-playing his buildup after he dealt with forearm fatigue in the playoffs and over the offseason. There’s worse news for depth starter Bowden Francis, as Schneider said he’s headed for Tommy John surgery.
Schneider framed the Bieber situation mostly as an abundance of caution. It was reported around the Winter Meetings that the righty had dealt with late-season forearm fatigue. That explained what had seemed a very curious decision to exercise a $16MM player option rather than pursuing a multi-year contract.
Bieber missed most of the 2023-24 seasons rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He felt a bit of elbow soreness last summer but was otherwise healthy enough to pitch the stretch run and throughout the playoffs. Bieber combined for 59 innings between the regular season and postseason. The Jays declined to provide any kind of timetable for his season debut, though both Schneider and GM Ross Atkins suggested they expect him to get plenty of work this season. Bieber has been throwing off flat ground up to 90 feet.
That answers any questions about whether the Jays had “too much” starting pitching to begin the season. José Berríos was reportedly displeased with being pushed out of the projected playoff rotation last year. He might have been sixth on the depth chart at full strength, but he’s now locked into the Opening Day rotation (assuming he gets through camp healthy himself). The Jays have a projected starting five of Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Cody Ponce and Berríos.
Losing Francis subtracts one of their depth arms. The 29-year-old righty took the ball 14 times last year, though he struggled to a 6.05 ERA before going down with a shoulder impingement in the middle of June. He spent the second half of the season on the 60-day injured list. He’ll land back on the IL whenever the Jays need to open a 40-man roster spot and spend the rest of the year there. Francis will be paid around the MLB minimum rate but seems likely to lose his roster spot at the end of the season when teams need to reinstate players from the IL.
Toronto is also without righty Jake Bloss, who is working back from his own elbow procedure (performed last May). Lefty Eric Lauer projects for a long relief role if everyone’s healthy but would be the obvious choice to step into the rotation if anyone else goes down before Opening Day. The other pitchers on the 40-man roster are light on big league experience, meaning one more injury could leave them looking quite thin.
There are a handful of mid-rotation caliber starters still unsigned — old friends Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer among the group. The Jays have pushed their luxury tax payroll estimate north of $310MM, easily a franchise record. They kicked the tires on Framber Valdez as he lingered on the open market into February, so it seems there’s still a chance of another move if they want to add some stability to the back end.
Reid Detmers Loses Arbitration Hearing To Angels
The Angels have defeated left-hander Reid Detmers in arbitration, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll be paid at the team’s desired $2.625MM rate rather than his camp’s $2.925MM filing figure.
Detmers is coming off a strong season in which he worked as a full-time reliever. The former 10th overall pick tossed 63 2/3 innings of 3.96 ERA ball while striking out more than 30% of batters faced. He picked up his first three career saves but worked mostly in a leverage role in front of Kenley Jansen, collecting 13 holds in the process.
The season ended on a bit of a sour note, as Detmers was placed on the injured list in the middle of September with elbow inflammation. It’s not expected to impact him going into camp. He’ll build back up as a starter, the role he held for the first four seasons of his MLB career. Detmers has shown flashes out of the rotation but has been up and down, ultimately tallying a near-5.00 ERA over 75 career starts. He projects as the #3 arm in Kurt Suzuki’s rotation behind Yusei Kikuchi and José Soriano. The Angels are counting on a handful of reclamation types — arguably including Detmers considering he posted a 6.70 ERA in his most recent rotation work — to fill out the back of the staff. Grayson Rodriguez and Alek Manoah are the favorites for the final two spots.
Detmers was the only Angel player to go to a hearing this year. His loss is just the second for the players out of nine cases that have been announced so far.
Dylan Lee Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Braves
Lefty reliever Dylan Lee has won his arbitration hearing over the Braves, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll earn the $2.2MM salary sought by his representatives at PSI Sports Management as opposed to the team’s $2MM filing figure.
Lee is quietly one of the better lefty setup arms in MLB. He owns a 2.82 ERA in just shy of 200 career appearances. That includes a 3.29 mark across a career-high 68 1/3 innings a season ago. Lee fanned almost 29% of batters faced against a tidy 5.3% walk percentage. He paced Atlanta pitchers with 19 holds and collected a pair of stray saves, although Raisel Iglesias held the closer role all year.
The Braves will enter the season with Lee and Aaron Bummer as their top two left-handers in front of what they hope to a lethal back-end duo of Iglesias and Robert Suarez. Lee has just under four years of service time and will be eligible for arbitration twice more. He made $1.025MM last season after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.
This was Atlanta’s only arbitration case that went to a hearing. Players have had a strong year in aggregate in the process, winning seven of the first nine outcomes that have been announced.
Rays Sign Nick Martinez
The Rays announced the signing of righty Nick Martinez to a one-year deal with a mutual option. It’s reportedly a $13MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that takes the form of a $9MM base salary and a $4MM buyout on the option, which is valued at $20MM. Reliever Manuel Rodríguez was placed on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. He’s working back from elbow surgery that was performed last July.
Martinez is the second free agent swingman whom the Rays have added this offseason. They signed lefty Steven Matz to a two-year, $15MM deal at the Winter Meetings. Matz was already expected to win a job at the back of the rotation. Tampa Bay subsequently traded Shane Baz to the Orioles, leaving another rotation spot available.
The 35-year-old Martinez enters camp as the favorite to work as Kevin Cash’s fifth starter. He lands behind Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan and Matz on the depth chart. That could push Ian Seymour and Joe Boyle back to Triple-A Durham while keeping the out-of-options Yoendrys Gómez in a long relief role for which he’s better suited. They’ll need way more than five starters to navigate the season given the injury histories for Rasmussen and McClanahan — the latter of whom hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since August 2023 and will be on some kind of innings count.
Matz and Martinez each have ample experience working out of the bullpen. Either could transition to relief if Seymour or top prospect Brody Hopkins force their way into the rotation. The versatility has been a huge selling point for Martinez, in particular. He can start, work multiple innings out of the bullpen, or pitch short relief in high-leverage situations as needed.
Martinez has found a strong second act in his 30s after spending four seasons in Japan. This will be his fifth season since he returned to MLB on a deal with the Padres over the 2021-22 offseason. He posted a sub-4.00 earned run average in each of the first three years, working mostly out of the bullpen. Martinez spent the first two seasons in San Diego before signing a two-year free agent contract with Cincinnati. He had the best year of his career in 2024, firing 142 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball while starting 16 of 42 appearances.
The righty triggered an opt-out but returned to Cincinnati after the Reds surprisingly extended a $21.05MM qualifying offer. That’s probably a move the Reds wished they had back. Martinez did pick up a career-high 165 2/3 innings while starting 26 of 40 games, but his production was that of a back-end starter. He allowed 4.45 earned runs per nine while striking out just 17% of opposing hitters, his lowest strikeout rate since he returned from Japan.
Although Martinez has never had huge swing-and-miss stuff, his strikeout rates between 2022-24 hovered around league average. He had a more difficult time getting hitters to chase pitches off the plate last year. His stuff wasn’t that much different than it had been, however, and Martinez’s biggest strength has been his ability to command a legitimate six-pitch mix. He uses each of his cutter, four-seam, sinker, changeup, curveball and slider at least 10% of the time. He’s able to attack the strike zone with any of those offerings, but the changeup is the only plus pitch in his arsenal.
The diverse repertoire has allowed Martinez to avoid any kind of platoon splits. He hasn’t been great at turning lineups over a third time but should be a capable five-inning starter. Martinez gets a decent number of weak fly-balls, an approach that might play more favorably at Tropicana Field than at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He did a solid job avoiding the longball overall, but his two worst months last season (June and August) were driven largely by home run spikes.
RosterResource estimated the Rays payroll around $79MM before the signing. The option buyout delays some of the payout but the $13MM guarantee will very likely make Martinez their highest-paid player in 2026. It’ll push their payroll estimate into the low-$90MM range after they opened the ’25 season just north of $79MM.
Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported Martinez and the Rays had an agreement. Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times reported that it was for one year with a mutual option and had the salary breakdown. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the $13MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.
Tigers Sign Framber Valdez To Three-Year Deal
Feb. 10: Detroit has officially announced the Valdez signing. He’ll earn a base salary of $17.5MM in 2026, $37.5MM 2027, and $35MM in 2028. Valdez can opt out after 2027. The deal also includes a $40MM mutual option for 2029 with a $5MM buyout. Valdez’ $20MM signing bonus is entirely deferred, with payments not starting until 2030.
Feb. 4: The Tigers land the offseason’s top remaining free agent, reportedly agreeing to a three-year deal with Framber Valdez that guarantees $115MM. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the star left-hander to opt out after the second season. It contains a $20MM signing bonus and an unspecified amount of deferred money. Valdez is represented by Octagon.
Valdez reunites with A.J. Hinch and gives the Tigers a lethal 1-2 pairing at the top of the rotation. He’ll slot behind Tarik Skubal atop a starting staff that suddenly looks like one of the best in the American League. They’ll be followed by Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize if everyone gets through camp healthy. That’d push KBO signee Drew Anderson into a swing role, while second-year righty Troy Melton can either pitch out of the bullpen or wait in Triple-A for a rotation spot to open.
The Skubal-Valdez pairing may only be together for one season, as the two-time defending Cy Young winner is a year away from what should be a record-setting free agent contract. Skubal and the club went to a hearing this morning that’ll determine whether he makes $19MM or $32MM for his final year under club control. The arbitrators will not reveal their decision until tomorrow, and Chris McCosky of The Detroit News confirms that neither the Tigers nor Skubal’s camp are aware yet of which way they’ll rule. The Valdez pickup is an independent decision.
It’s the kind of win-now strike for which much of the Detroit fanbase has waited all offseason. The Tigers had a fairly conservative trade deadline, and their biggest moves before tonight had been retaining Flaherty on a $20MM player option and Gleyber Torres via the $22.025MM qualifying offer. They also brought back setup man Kyle Finnegan on a two-year deal and added Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen on one-year contracts. They’d done a decent job building depth but without pushing the chips in for an impact player in what could be Skubal’s final season in the Motor City.
Valdez brings the ceiling that Detroit’s other acquisitions had lacked. He’s a two-time All-Star who has finished top 10 in Cy Young balloting in three of the past four seasons. Valdez worked his way from an unheralded amateur signee to the big leagues in 2018. He spent his first two seasons working in a swing role for an Astros club managed by Hinch. Valdez moved into the rotation permanently during the shortened 2020 campaign and has been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the last six years.
The southpaw has posted a sub-4.00 earned run average in each season since he became a full-time starter. He has been exceptionally durable as well, only twice landing on the injured list in his MLB career. He fractured his left ring finger when he was hit by a comebacker in Spring Training 2021. He was back from that injury by the end of May. His only other IL stint was a two-week absence for elbow inflammation early in ’24. He returned without issue and wound up making 29 starts between the regular season and playoffs.
Valdez is tied for 14th in starts and ranks fifth with 973 innings dating back to 2020. He has a cumulative 3.23 ERA in that time. That includes sub-3.00 showings in 2022 and ’24. Valdez was among the most consistent top-of-the-rotation starters in MLB — at least until the second half of his walk year. He posted an earned run average between 2.82 and 3.45 in each season between 2021-24. He topped 175 innings in each of the latter three years.
For the first half of last season, Valdez was on a similar pace. He took a 2.75 ERA over 121 frames into the All-Star Break. Valdez came out of the Break with two more quality starts and was sitting on a 2.62 ERA (a top 10 mark among qualifiers) as August arrived. He picked a tough time for arguably the worst couple months of his career. Valdez was blitzed for a 6.05 ERA with a dramatically reduced 17.7% strikeout rate over his final 10 starts. His sinker velocity dipped slightly, and opponents teed off on it in August and September. There’s no indication that he was tipping pitches, and it seems like the issue was mostly poor execution.
Valdez also found himself at the center of controversy during a start against the Yankees on September 2. Two pitches after giving up a grand slam to Trent Grisham, he hit catcher César Salazar in the chest with a 93 MPH sinker on a cross-up. Salazar was clearly expecting a breaking ball and didn’t have time to react to the fastball. Valdez didn’t check on the catcher in the moment. Salazar was not hurt and finished the game without issue.
The pitcher denied that the cross-up was intentional. Salazar did his best to publicly downplay the incident, saying he pressed the wrong button on his PitchCom. Even if that’s the case, the pitcher’s seeming lack of concern on the mound made for poor optics. Valdez said postgame that he had apologized to his battery mate.
Did that have any impact on his market value? It’s impossible to know from the outside, though one imagines some teams asked Valdez about the incident during the free agent process. It’s worth noting that a Detroit team managed by his former skipper is the one that eventually signed him, so it seems they don’t have any concerns about his makeup or clubhouse presence.
The late-season dip in production and Valdez’s age were probably bigger factors in his extended free agent stay. He finished the year with a 3.66 ERA across 192 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage were in line with his career marks. It’s a solid strikeout and walk profile, but his game has always been built more around ground-balls. He has a career 62% grounder rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 58.6% clip last season, the third-highest mark among pitchers with 100+ innings.
It’s not the whiff-heavy approach that someone like Dylan Cease brought to the table this offseason, though Valdez’s statistical profile isn’t that dissimilar from that of Max Fried. They’re both ground-ball specialists who sit in the mid-90s with a sinker that leads the profile. Fried commanded an eight-year, $218MM contract last winter. The biggest difference is that came in advance of his age-31 season, while Valdez turned 32 in November.
Although a one-year age gap might not seem like much, teams have been reluctant to make long-term commitments to free agent pitchers at 32. Zack Greinke, Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell are the only pitchers that age or older to command five-plus years since 2011. They’d all had at least one Cy Young on their résumés by that point. Valdez’s inconsistent finish essentially took a six-year contract off the table. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. That he remained unsigned into February made it increasingly apparent that a five-year contract wasn’t going to be out there.
On the surface, Valdez seems to have done fairly well despite signing a week before the beginning of Spring Training. The deal’s true value can’t really be known until the extent of the deferrals are reported, however. The sticker price comes with a massive $38.33MM average annual value that’d rank 10th all time. The net present value will be reduced to at least some extent by the deferred money.
Regardless of the contract breakdown, this easily goes down as Scott Harris’ boldest free agent move in his four years running baseball operations. It’s Detroit’s first nine-figure investment since the ill-fated Javier Baez deal, which was signed under former GM Al Avila. The Harris front office hadn’t gone beyond $35MM on a free agent. That was their two-year contract to re-sign Flaherty almost exactly a year ago. There are some parallels with Valdez in terms of waiting out the market to get a high-end starter for short term, but this is obviously a much more significant investment.
The Tigers ran a $188MM competitive balance tax payroll last season. They’re going to top that this year, though the extent isn’t clear. RosterResource currently estimates their CBT number around $237MM while penciling in the midpoint of the arbitration filing figures as a placeholder for Skubal. The arbitrators don’t have that luxury, meaning that CBT estimate will change by $6.5MM in one direction or another. It’s also using the base $38.33MM annual value for Valdez, which overshoots the actual number to an unknown extent until the deferral breakdown comes out.
Detroit also forfeits draft capital because Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros. They’re a revenue sharing recipient so it’s the lowest penalty, their third-highest pick in the 2026 draft. That’s currently slated to be their Competitive Balance Round B selection, which is 69th overall. The Tigers could look to trade that pick — Competitive Balance selections are the only ones that can be traded — rather than losing it as the compensatory pick. They’d then forfeit their third-round selection (#98 overall), but another team might be more willing to give up something of value for the higher draft choice and accompanying slot value that makes it worthwhile for Detroit to lose the third-rounder.
Houston never had any interest in meeting Valdez’s asking price. As luxury tax payors, they receive a compensation pick after the fourth round. That’ll land around 133rd overall. Houston traded for Mike Burrows and signed Tatsuya Imai and Ryan Weiss to backfill the rotation depth, even if they’re unlikely to replace the ceiling that Valdez brought.
The Blue Jays, Orioles and Pirates were recently linked to Valdez. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Twins surprisingly jumped in the mix as well. He was probably a unique target for a Toronto club that already runs six deep in the rotation. Baltimore could pivot to a mid-tier starter like Zac Gallen (the last unsigned player who declined a QO), Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. A mid-rotation arm is also possible for Pittsburgh. At the very least, the Bucs figure to add a fifth starter for a few million dollars. Minnesota has a solid rotation but reportedly kicked the tires on a Freddy Peralta trade as well, seemingly staying on the periphery of the market for a potential impact arm.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the three-year, $115MM agreement with the opt-out after year two. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $20MM bonus.
Image courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images.