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Marlins Notes: Fairbanks, Mullins, Matz, Marsee

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The Marlins entered the offseason targeting late-inning relief help. They haven’t come away with anything thus far, as they’ve evidently balked at the prices in a free agent bullpen market that has moved quickly.

Pete Fairbanks is one player known to be on their radar. He’s a logical fit as a proven closer who has ties to president of baseball operations Peter Bendix from their time in Tampa Bay. However, Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral of Fish On First wrote this week that Fairbanks’ market is likely to push beyond Miami’s comfort zone.

Fairbanks hit free agency when the Rays bought out his $11MM club option. They were unable to find trade interest at that price point within the first few days of the offseason. Fairbanks could command a two-year contract at a slightly lesser annual sum. His strikeout rates have dropped closer to league average over the past couple seasons, but he’s coming off a 2.83 ERA with 27 saves across 60 1/3 innings. Fairbanks still sits above 97 MPH and got swinging strikes on nearly 13% of his offerings this year. He fits alongside the likes of Emilio Pagán and Kyle Finnegan, who commanded two-year contracts in the $19-20MM range.

The Fish have yet to sign a free agent this offseason. They’ve shown interest in a few players who have wound up elsewhere, including a pair who are headed to Bendix’s old team. Azout noted that the Marlins were involved in the market for swingman Steven Matz before he agreed to a two-year, $15MM contract with the Rays. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported last week that the Marlins pursued Cedric Mullins prior to his $7MM deal to become Tampa Bay’s new center fielder.

Mullins would not have gotten everyday center field reps in Miami. Jakob Marsee is locked in there after an excellent half-season debut. The 24-year-old hit .292/.363/.478 with five home runs in his first 234 big league plate appearances. His .357 average on balls in play is due for some amount of regression, but he showed excellent plate discipline and contact skills with solid batted ball metrics. Marsee also graded as a slightly above-average defender in 475 innings.

The Marlins could use a veteran outfielder in a corner. Kyle Stowers can play either corner spot, which gives them some flexibility in that regard. Mullins has a below-average arm and would likely have been ticketed for left field, pushing Stowers to right. Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez and Dane Myers would be in the mix for playing time right now. They’re all in their mid-late 20s and have struck out at such alarming rates in the upper minors that it’s unlikely any of them is a long-term regular.

Miami is reportedly willing to spend more than usual this offseason, though they’ve yet to put that into action. They kicked around extension numbers with Stowers but reportedly faced an approximate $50MM divide. They’re planning to reengage with young starter Eury Pérez on a potential long-term deal after beginning those conversations in Spring Training.

Marsee stands as another logical candidate after his impressive first few months. Fish On First reports that there’s some interest on both sides about a long-term deal, though the team has yet to make an offer. Extension conversations frequently pick up later in the offseason and into Spring Training, so there’s plenty of time.

Hitters who sign extensions within their first year of MLB service are often top-tier prospects. That’s not the case with Marsee. He was a sixth-round pick by San Diego who was generally viewed as the second best of the three prospects traded to Miami for Luis Arraez. (The centerpiece, former first-round pick Dillon Head, is coming off a .223/.334/.318 season in A-ball.) Marsee entered the 2025 season as the #12 prospect in the Miami organization, according to Baseball America. He didn’t appear on any Top 100 lists.

The closest recent comparison point is probably Ceddanne Rafaela, though even he’d been more highly regarded before his MLB debut than Marsee was. The Red Sox signed him to an eight-year, $50MM guarantee with a club option for a ninth season. They’re very different players stylistically. Rafaela was an elite defensive outfielder whose extremely aggressive approach led to questions about the hit tool. Marsee isn’t as athletic but is a much more polished hitter who has had more big league success than Rafaela did at the time.

However, Rafaela had garnered some Top 100 fanfare and signed his deal in his age-23 season. Marsee turns 25 in June. The Fish are probably reluctant to put a $50MM offer on the table a couple months into his career. That’s reportedly close to what they offered Stowers, who is two years further along and is coming off an All-Star season. Marsee is under club control through his age-30 campaign.

Rays Have Discussed Pepiot, Baz In Ketel Marte Trade Conversations

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The Rays are among a number of teams that have been tied to Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen has consistently downplayed the chance of a deal coming together on their MVP-caliber second baseman, but he hasn’t slammed the door shut given the team’s need for starting pitching.

Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that conversations with the Rays have kicked around a framework that would send both Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz to the desert. Piecoro writes that nothing is believed to be close on that front and the Rays are not necessarily any kind of frontrunner. Indeed, he adds that the Diamondbacks have had conversations with another team interested in Marte that would be built around a bigger-name starting pitcher.

Whether or not talks with Tampa Bay progress, the mention of multiple controllable starters hammers home the high asking price which the Diamondbacks have set. Pepiot landed in Tampa Bay as the centerpiece of the Tyler Glasnow return two offseasons ago. He’s the team leader with 297 2/3 innings pitched since the start of 2024.

The former third-round pick owns a 3.75 earned run average while striking out a little more than a quarter of opposing hitters. He’s a decent strike-thrower who sits around 95 MPH with his heater and has a plus changeup. Pepiot’s slider is a distant third offering, and the changeup has made him a reverse splits pitcher. He has held left-handed hitters to a .192/.287/.354 batting line with a near-28% strikeout rate over the past two seasons. Righties have hit .243/.303/.420 while punching out at a 23% clip.

Pepiot is unlikely to develop into an ace, but he’s an established mid-rotation starter who turned 28 in August. He has a little over three years of service time, so he’s under arbitration control through 2028. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.7MM salary. Teams place a premium on an affordable #3-type starter. The Rays presumably aren’t shopping Pepiot, but it’s a testament to Marte’s offensive impact that the righty would be on the table in those conversations.

Baz, 26, has also come up in trade talks with the Astros. The 6’3″ righty is a former top prospect who has yet to reach his upper mid-rotation ceiling. That’s partially due to some early-career injuries, including Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2023 season. He posted a 3.06 ERA across 14 starts when he returned in ’24. That earned him a spot in Kevin Cash’s rotation this year, but Baz had an up-and-down performance. He concluded with a 4.87 ERA across 166 1/3 innings. That’s despite a solid 24.8% strikeout percentage and 11.6% swinging strike rate.

The pure upside might be higher with Baz than it is with Pepiot. He sits 97 MPH and gets above-average movement on an 85 MPH knuckle-curve and 90 MPH cutter. Baz has plus stuff and is a decent enough strike thrower. He has been held back by a lack of start-to-start consistency. He allowed one run or fewer 10 times (including seven scoreless appearances) but also had 10 outings in which he gave up five or more runs.

Baz also has between three and four service years and is eligible for arbitration through 2028. He’s projected for a $3.1MM salary. Teams are probably divided as to whether they’d prefer Pepiot’s stability or Baz’s raw stuff, but both pitchers have significant trade value. They’re two of the three returning Tampa Bay pitchers (alongside Drew Rasmussen) who topped 100 innings. The Rays are likely to give Steven Matz a starting opportunity, but they’d certainly need to backfill the rotation if they traded two starters. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched since 2023. Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour have limited track records.

The Diamondbacks would require a monster return built around MLB starting pitching to move Marte. He’s coming off a .283/.376/.517 showing with 28 home runs. Marte is the best second baseman in the league and is signed for a bargain $102.5MM over the next six seasons (the final of which is a player option year).

“I think it’s a risky deal when you’re talking about trading really, really good players at all,” Hazen told Piecoro. “It’s something that we have to at least listen to in our job. It’s not something that you really look forward to, necessarily, when you have the players that we do. But it’s also the reality of our team and where we are that I have to consider some things.”

Arizona agreed to terms with Michael Soroka on a one-year deal this week. He’ll be in the rotation alongside Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. (They’re unlikely to get Corbin Burnes back from Tommy John surgery before August.) Nelson was the only one of that trio who found much success this year. The D-Backs need to add another two starters and don’t have a ton of payroll space to address that via free agency. They’re also looking for bullpen help and could upgrade at third base or in the outfield.

While Marte is the best second baseman at least loosely available on the trade market, the Rays ironically have the second-best such option. Brandon Lowe is coming off a 31-homer season in which he hit .256/.307/.477 over 553 plate appearances. Lowe is entering the final season of his contract and is set to make $11.5MM. The Rays have reportedly gotten hits from the Pirates and Reds (surely among others) about his availability.

President of baseball operations Erik Neander touched on Lowe’s trade candidacy from the Winter Meetings (link via Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times). He called the two-time All-Star an “important, impactful player who provides power at a position that is hard to find.” Neander acknowledged the Rays’ history of shopping players whose control windows were closing but praised both Lowe and Yandy Díaz as longtime contributors.

“Our history is our history. We’ve made (trades) with players that are established, that are impactful contributors that as they get their way closer to free agency, we’ve made plenty of those decisions. But we’ve also made decisions the last few years to kind of continue to roll forward with these guys. We greatly appreciate them and are more than happy to ride in the next year and see what this team can do.”

Both clubs could go in a few different directions over the coming weeks. There’s no guarantee either will end up moving their star second baseman, but the trade market has yet to really pick up as most of the top free agent hitters continue weighing their options.

Pirates Re-Sign Ronny Simon To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates brought back Ronny Simon on a minor league contract, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Pittsburgh had non-tendered the rookie at the end of the season to drop him from their 40-man roster. He’ll presumably receive a non-roster invite to MLB Spring Training.

Simon is only 25 but has already been part of five organizations. He was traded twice as a prospect (once from the Cubs to Arizona, then from the D-Backs to the Rays) but didn’t get to the highest level until he signed a minor league deal with the Marlins last offseason. Simon had a 19-game look with Miami that was unfortunately most notable for a game in which he committed three errors at second base. That proved to be his final one with the Marlins, who designated him for assignment a couple days later.

Pittsburgh grabbed Simon off waivers and optioned him to Triple-A. He hit .284/.381/.436 across 248 minor league plate appearances to earn his way back to the majors in the middle of August. Simon got into eight games over the next two weeks before dislocating his left shoulder. That ended his season. The Bucs didn’t want to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter, so they took advantage of the non-tender deadline to drop him without putting him on waivers. Teams will often circle back to see if that player is open to a new minor league contract, as Simon was in this case.

The 5’8″ Simon hasn’t done much in a very limited body of work at the big league level. He’s a switch-hitter who owns a .287/.371/.436 batting line in nearly 1000 career Triple-A plate appearances. Simon came up primarily as an infielder and was still playing on the dirt with the Marlins. Pittsburgh has announced him as an outfielder in their press releases and only used him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter both in Triple-A and MLB.

Blue Jays Sign Cody Ponce To Three-Year Deal

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December 11th: The Jays officially announced the Ponce signing today. According to The Associated Press, he receives a $3MM signing bonus and an $5MM salary for the 2026. He’ll make $11MM annually between 2027-28.

December 2nd: The Blue Jays are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Cody Ponce on a three-year, $30MM contract. The deal is pending a physical and has yet to be announced by the team. The Jays have two openings on the 40-man roster and do not need to make a corresponding move. Ponce, a client of Excel Sports Management, returns to the majors after an MVP-winning season in the Korea Baseball Organization.

Toronto continues to load up in the rotation on the same day they finalized their seven-year contract with Dylan Cease. They already had a strong top four with Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber. Ponce and José Berríos project as the fifth and sixth starters in what looks like one of the strongest rotations in baseball. Eric Lauer, who pitched to a 3.18 ERA over 104 2/3 innings in a swing role this year, is down to seventh on the depth chart.

The three-year deal and $10MM average annual value suggests the Jays view Ponce as a starter. He doesn’t have much rotation experience in the big leagues, starting five of 20 appearances with the Pirates between 2020-21. Ponce struggled in that first look but has reinvented himself since moving to Asia. He pitched parts of three seasons in Japan before a breakout 2025 season with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles.

Ponce took the ball 29 times and turned in a 1.89 earned run average across 180 2/3 innings. He recorded a league-best 36.2% strikeout percentage against a tidy 6% walk rate. Ponce led the league with 252 strikeouts overall and was the only KBO pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA in more than 100 innings.

The numbers alone would have been enough for Ponce to get back on the MLB radar. The more important factor for his contract was that his stuff has taken a matching jump. Ponce averaged 93.2 MPH on his fastball during his big league look, but a scout with a non-Toronto team told MLBTR in October that his velocity had climbed into the mid-90s. Eno Sarris of The Athletic wrote earlier this week that his average heater was in the 95 MPH range, and he has been clocked up to 98. Ponce has reportedly picked up a splitter — the carrying pitch for Yesavage and Gausman as well — and mixes in a cutter and curveball.

Ponce throws harder and has better secondary stuff than Erick Fedde did when he returned to North America after his own MVP season in Korea. As a result, the 31-year-old gets an extra year and doubled the $15MM guarantee that Fedde received from the White Sox over the 2023-24 offseason. Fedde, for what it’s worth, pitched well in his first year back before his numbers cratered this past season.

It’s a strong deal for Ponce, who tops MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $22MM. It’s by far the biggest payday of his career. Ponce received a signing bonus a little north of $1MM as a second-round pick by the Brewers in the 2015 draft. He did not come close to the service time to qualify for arbitration in his first stint in MLB and played on a $1MM contract with the Eagles.

The salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, but an even distribution of $10MM annually would push Toronto’s projected payroll to roughly $272MM (courtesy of RosterResource). The $10MM average annual value pushes their luxury tax projection above $280MM. The Jays are in the second tier and are taxed at a 42% rate on spending between $264MM and $284MM. That means they’ll pay $4.2MM in taxes for the first season of the Ponce contract. That’s a relative drop in the bucket given the amount the Jays are spending, but the payroll only seems likely to climb. They’d like to re-sign Bo Bichette and will almost certainly add a high-leverage reliever to join Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland at the back end.

Spending beyond the $284MM mark would raise their tax penalties and result in their top pick in the 2027 draft being moved back 10 spots. That doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrent for a team that forfeited its second and fifth-highest picks in next summer’s draft and $1MM from its international bonus pool to sign Cease. The Jays are all in after coming tantalizingly close to their first World Series in three decades.

If payroll does become an obstacle to re-signing Bichette or adding to the bullpen, the Jays could look to shop Berríos. He’s making $18MM next season and will need to decide whether to opt out of the remaining two years and $48MM on the deal after 2026. It’s not an egregious contract but looks above market for what’ll be ages 32-34 on a pitcher who has struck out fewer than 20% of batters faced in consecutive seasons. Berríos is a solid source of back-of-the-rotation innings, but the Jays would probably need to pay down some of the money and/or take back a slightly underwater deal in a trade.

The simpler path would be to keep everyone and open the season with a six-man rotation if no one suffers an injury during Spring Training. No team gets through an entire season using only five starters. The pitching staff logged a lot of innings this fall. Gausman and Bieber will be free agents after next season, and while Berríos doesn’t look like he’s trending towards an opt-out, that could change with a strong platform year. Lauer will also return to the open market next winter.

Aside from Yesavage, the Jays don’t have much in the way of upper level pitching prospects. Former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is on the 40-man roster and will probably make his MLB debut in 2026, but he missed the entire ’25 season and has pitched 140 innings since being drafted in 2021. The durability concerns might push him to the bullpen, and even if the Jays want to give him another chance as a starter, they’re certainly not going to let him throw 150 innings. Jake Bloss is unlikely to be a factor until the second half after undergoing elbow surgery in May. The Ponce signing probably rules the Jays out on bringing back Chris Bassitt or Max Scherzer but doesn’t make a Berríos trade a foregone conclusion.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Ponce and the Jays were finalizing a three-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan had the $30MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

How Might The Mets Replace Pete Alonso?

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The biggest news of a relatively quiet Winter Meetings dropped on the final day. Pete Alonso is headed to Baltimore (pending a physical) on a massive five-year deal. His departure from the Mets had been telegraphed by the team's reported reluctance to go beyond three years. It's nevertheless jarring for a team that has spent at the top of the league to be comfortably outbid on the franchise's all-time home runs leader by a mid-market Orioles club.

Alonso's departure came one day after the Mets let Edwin Díaz walk to the Dodgers. They're a few weeks removed from trading Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Clearly, president of baseball operations David Stearns and his front office weren't happy to run it all back after the team melted down in the second half. They've signed Devin Williams to replace Díaz. We've yet to see how they'll respond to the losses on the position player side. There's plenty more to come -- no team is complete on December 10 -- but the 2026 Mets will look a lot different than the teams of the past few seasons.

At the beginning of the offseason, Stearns spoke about a need to improve the pitching and defense (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic). Aside from the Williams signing, they've waited out the pitching market so far. Their position player moves, or lack thereof, suggest they're indeed focused on getting more athletic. Semien remains an excellent defensive second baseman. Alonso's lack of defensive value is a big reason they were reluctant to pay him into his mid-30s.

Where do they go from here?

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Twins Exploring Mid-Tier First Base Market

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After entering the offseason as expected sellers, the Twins have seemingly reversed course. They’re now inclined to hold Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and Pablo López while making a few depth additions. Speaking at the Winter Meetings, general manager Jeremy Zoll highlighted revamping the bullpen and adding a power hitter as two offseason goals.

Minnesota has never spent much on the bullpen under president of baseball operations Derek Falvey. That’s likely to continue this offseason, as they’ll presumably take a volume approach and bring in a few arms on one-year deals. They could aim a bit higher in their pursuit of a power hitter. That’s likeliest to come at first base.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that Minnesota has checked in with each of Ryan O’Hearn, Rhys Hoskins and Josh Bell. Hayes writes that the front office has around $20MM to spend this offseason. That opens the ability to play in the third or fourth tier of free agent bats.  The Twins should be able to find an upgrade over utility player Kody Clemens, who’s probably the top in-house option at first base.

O’Hearn, a lefty bat, would be the most expensive of that trio. The 32-year-old is coming off a .281/.366/.437 showing with 17 homers across 544 plate appearances between the Orioles and Padres. He has been an above-average hitter in three consecutive seasons. O’Hearn has improved his approach while hitting between 14 and 17 longballs in each of the past three years.

That should be enough to secure a multi-year contract. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $26MM deal in ranking O’Hearn the #30 free agent in the class. A $13MM average annual value would evidently be within Minnesota’s overall budget, but that’d leave very little room for the bullpen or a utility infielder. It seems likely the Twins would aim lower if O’Hearn’s market pushes into an eight-figure annual salary.

Hoskins and Bell are more straightforward one-year deal candidates. The former is coming off a .237/.332/.416 showing with 12 homers in 90 games for the Brewers. He got out to a hot start but had a terrible June before suffering a left thumb sprain. That cost him six weeks and opened playing time for Andrew Vaughn, who surprisingly thrived in Milwaukee. Hoskins was relegated to a bench bat role when he returned in September. He’s only a season removed from hitting 26 homers, albeit with a middling .214/.303/.419 overall slash line.

Bell has signed a series of one-year deals over the past few seasons. He played on a $6MM contract with the Nationals in 2025, batting .237/.325/.417 with 22 longballs across 533 plate appearances. Bell is exceptionally streaky within seasons but pretty consistently ends up as a slightly above-average overall hitter at the end of the year. (He has some parallels to former Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario in that regard.) That was again the case this past season. Bell took a .219/.307/.372 line into the All-Star Break before rebounding with a .267/.353/.489 performance in the second half.

Hoskins is a right-handed batter. Bell is a switch-hitter who has generally been better from the left side of the plate. A righty bat might make more sense given the presence of lefty-swinging first base/DH options like Clemens, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Edouard Julien. Lefty-hitting Nathaniel Lowe and right-handed Paul Goldschmidt should also be available on one-year deals.

Yankees, Astros Among Various Clubs Interested In Freddy Peralta Trade

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There hasn’t been much movement at the top of the free agent rotation market. Most of the focus on starting pitching has been on the trade front, though we didn’t see any major deals at the Winter Meetings.

Most of the top trade candidates are questionable to move at all. Brewers star Freddy Peralta is among that group. Milwaukee isn’t motivated to trade the All-Star righty on the heels of a 97-win season, but they’re not going to shut down conversations entirely. They’ve heard from no shortage of teams with interest. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Astros, Giants, Mets, Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees are among the clubs that have reached out about Peralta.

The wide range of suitors is to be expected. Houston, San Francisco, Baltimore and the Mets all have starting pitching at or near the top of the priority list. The Astros are focusing on the trade market as they try to stay below the luxury tax line. The Giants and Mets have ample payroll flexibility but have downplayed their desire to make long-term commitments to a starter. The Orioles are casting a wide net to find an impact arm who can slot in the upper half of the rotation. They’ve been tied to Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez in free agency, as well as trade possibilities like Edward Cabrera and MacKenzie Gore.

The Yankees will begin the season without Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón due to injury. Clarke Schmidt may miss the entire season rehabbing Tommy John surgery. They’re set to open the season with Max Fried and Cam Schlittler in the top two spots. Will Warren and Luis Gil project as the third and fourth arms for now, and they don’t have a fifth starter lined up. Warren had a solid rookie season but struggled with the home run ball. Gil was the Rookie of the Year in 2024. This year, he was limited to 57 innings with mediocre strikeout and walk numbers after missing a few months with a lat strain.

Boston isn’t as clearly in need of starting pitching. They entered the offseason pursuing a #2 starter. They’ve acquired Sonny Gray to fill that role and brought in Johan Oviedo as a back-end option. The focus is on adding a big bat or two, but they’ve been tied to virtually every free agent or trade candidate of significance.

Peralta fits on every contender. He’ll make $8MM in the final season of what turned out to be a dramatically team-friendly extension. He’s coming off a career-low 2.70 ERA and finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting. This was the third straight season in which he reached 200 strikeouts and started 30+ games. The Brewers fully expect to compete for another division title themselves. They’ve pulled the trigger on trades of stars with dwindling club control windows (e.g. Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes) to remain consistently competitive, though that’s not an absolute. They were happy to hold Willy Adames all the way to free agency.

Adames rejected a qualifying offer and netted a compensatory draft pick when he signed with the Giants. Barring injury, Peralta would be a near lock to do the same if Milwaukee holds him all year. That’d net them a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2027 draft — assuming he signs for at least $50MM. Milwaukee would be entitled to the highest level of compensation as a revenue sharing recipient.

Obviously, the Brewers could extract a far greater return for even one year of Peralta’s services on the trade market. They’re balancing that against the hit it’d deal to the 2026 team. Brandon Woodruff is back to join Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski and Chad Patrick in what would still be a high-upside rotation. Every club would be better with Peralta on it, though.

President of baseball operations Matt Arnold addressed the Peralta rumors shortly before the Winter Meetings. “I’m not sure that there’s a scenario that’s been presented that would make any sense for us,” Arnold said last week (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). “We obviously get hits on him all the time. He’s a very popular target, certainly. But he’s also a huge part of our team and we want to be competitive in 2026. A big part of this is bringing back the core that we had last year.”

Orioles Remain Involved On Top Free Agent Starters After Alonso Deal

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After making a massive splash on offense, the Orioles figure to turn their attention to the rotation. That could also come via the open market, as the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi relays that Baltimore remains in the mix for the top free agent starters. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner similarly suggests that the O’s have ongoing interest in Ranger Suárez.

Baltimore committed $31MM annually on a surprising five-year deal to add Pete Alonso. It’s easily the biggest free agent move of Mike Elias’ tenure leading baseball operations. That also means the long-term books are still fairly open. Alonso joins Ryan Helsley, Tyler O’Neill and Samuel Basallo as the only players signed beyond next season. Helsley and O’Neill come off the books after 2027, while Basallo won’t make more than $4MM in a season until 2030.

A significant arbitration class clutters the short-term picture a little more. RosterResource projects their 2026 payroll obligations around $148MM. (That’s using a $31MM estimated salary for Alonso, but the annual breakdown on his deal hasn’t been reported.) Baltimore had a little more than $159MM committed to their Opening Day payroll in 2025. They’d need to push that higher to make a second notable free agent move, but that appears to be in play headed into the second full season of David Rubenstein’s ownership tenure.

Adding a front-line starter alongside Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish is the clear objective now for Elias and company. Alongside Suárez, they’ve been tied to Framber Valdez, Michael King and Tatsuya Imai. Elias has already said he’s open to sacrificing a draft pick to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That applies to Valdez, Suárez and King. They did not give up any draft capital to sign Alonso, who was ineligible for a QO, but their unsuccessful $150MM bid for Kyle Schwarber demonstrates that willingness to add a qualified free agent.

Baltimore is juggling the free agent pursuits against possibilities on the trade front. (Adding another right-handed power bat only further clouds the path to playing time for former top corner infield prospect Coby Mayo, for instance.) The Athletic reported last night that they’ve been among the most aggressive teams in talks with the Marlins regarding Edward Cabrera. Morosi also mentioned Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore as a potential trade target for the O’s. The two parties have had multiple conversations surrounding Gore, who’s controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

Gore is a natural target for any team seeking rotation help. The former No. 3 overall pick was once the top pitching prospect in the sport, and while he’s yet to develop into an established ace, he’s shown glimpses of that ability. Gore has made at least 27 starts in three straight seasons for Washington. His 4.15 earned run average in that time is solid but not particularly eye-catching. Metrics like SIERA (3.99) and FIP (4.01) are only a bit more bullish.

That said, Gore spent much of the season’s first half pitching like a Cy Young contender. He carried a sparkling 3.02 ERA into the All-Star break — a mark supported by a dominant 30.5% strikeout rate and a strong 7.7% walk rate. That strikeout rate trailed only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown. His 14.2% swinging-strike rate checked in behind only Skubal, Wheeler and Dylan Cease. Gore looked to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout, finally realizing his ceiling as a No. 1 or 2 starter.

The next three starts were a nightmare. Gore was rocked for 23 runs in just 15 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA into the mid-4.00s. He rebounded over his final seven starts but also spent a couple weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. The 26-year-old lefty (27 in February) finished out what had looked like such a promising campaign with a respectable but unremarkable 4.17 ERA in 159 2/3 innings.

Gore is something of an unfinished product, though other more analytically inclined clubs might hope they can coax another level of performance out of him. The Nationals remade their front office this offseason but had generally been viewed as behind the curve when it comes to incorporating data into their pitching development. On a smaller scale, we saw a big jump in Kyle Finnegan’s performance with Detroit. An acquiring team would surely be hoping for similar improvements from Gore. The pieces are certainly in place. Gore’s 95.5 mph average four-seamer is strong, particularly for a lefty, and his 13.3% swinging-strike rate is already excellent as well.

While Alonso isn’t limiting the free agent pitching possibilities, it probably takes them out of the running for another massive move on a bat. Morosi reported yesterday that the O’s had been in contact with Kyle Tucker’s camp. Baltimore always seemed like a longer shot on Tucker, and it’d be shocking if they add him on top of the Alonso agreement. The O’s already brought in Taylor Ward via trade and have a crowded corner outfield mix with O’Neill, Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers. They’re likely to give some DH at-bats to whomever of Basallo and Adley Rutschman isn’t behind the plate and need to sort out whether there’s room on the roster at all for Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle.

Guardians Notes: Kwan, Bullpen, Valera, Rocchio

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As expected, it has been a quiet start to the offseason for the Guardians. Their only major league moves thus far have been to re-sign backup catcher Austin Hedges and add middle reliever Connor Brogdon. Cleveland rarely attacks free agency, and they seem generally unlikely to make major moves on the trade front in either direction this winter.

The Guardians heard teams out on Steven Kwan at the deadline. They didn’t find an offer to their liking, and they’re less inclined to sell after making a surprise late-season run to another AL Central title. Unsurprisingly, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote this morning that while the Guards aren’t going to close themselves off to offers, they’re currently inclined to hold him into next season.

An offseason trade would be selling at a bit of a low point. Kwan had a .700 OPS or worse in each of the final four months. His overall .272/.330/.374 line was league average, but that was carried mostly by a fantastic April. It’s primarily a reflection of a drop in his batting average on balls in play. BABIP volatility is to be expected for a player who rarely hits the ball hard but is one of the sport’s five best pure contact hitters. The bat-to-ball skills and plus defense in left field give him a solid floor, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference valued him around three wins above replacement.

Kwan is under team control for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary. The Guardians don’t have much on the books beyond the well below-market José Ramírez contract. They’re not under any financial pressure to move him. Even if other teams value him just as highly as they did over the summer, a trade would remove the only established outfielder from Stephen Vogt’s lineup. Rookies Chase DeLauter, Petey Halpin and George Valera and the out-of-options Nolan Jones are currently in line to divide the center and right field playing time. The Guards already need to add to the outfield, and a Kwan trade would only push that further.

Cleveland is also in the market for multiple relievers, Vogt told reporters at the Winter Meetings (link via Tim Stebbins of MLB.com). “We need depth in the bullpen,” the two-time AL Manager of the Year said. “We have four, maybe five guys in our bullpen, and we need eight.”

It’s safe to assume Emmanuel Clase isn’t coming back. That keeps Cade Smith in the closer role. Hunter Gaddis is a quality setup arm from the right side. The rest of the group is in flux. Brogdon and Matt Festa are out of options and probably set to open the season in middle relief. Neither should be ticketed for leverage spots. There’s even less certainty from the left side. Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski have each shown promise but struggled to throw strikes. Even if a depth starter like Joey Cantillo or Doug Nikhazy ends up in long relief, they need more trustworthy arms.

Additionally, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the Guardians have been granted a fourth option year on both Valera and second base prospect Juan Brito. Players can typically only be optioned to the minor leagues in three separate seasons after being added to the 40-man roster. After that, teams need to pass them through waivers and outright them off the 40-man to send them down.

Exceptions are made for players who have less than five full seasons (90+ days) on an MLB or minor league active roster. That usually occurs because the player took a while to reach full-season ball — especially for international signings who signed their first contract at 16 — and/or missed chunks of a season to injury. Valera didn’t play a full minor league season until 2021 and missed most of this past season working back from knee surgery. Brito didn’t play a full season until 2022, so he’d have been eligible for the fourth option even if he were fully healthy. He missed most of the ’25 season because of thumb and hamstring issues.

Valera and Brito could each be in the mix for Opening Day roster spots. The Guardians have the flexibility to send them to Triple-A Columbus for another season, though both right field and second base are open in the short term. There’s probably more pressure on Brito to break out, as top prospect Travis Bazzana has already hit his way to Triple-A. Bazzana has the higher ceiling and is viewed as the long-term second baseman, meaning Brito might not have much runway even if he breaks camp.

Vogt told reporters that Brayan Rocchio will play a lot of shortstop during Spring Training. They’ll move Gabriel Arias around in a utility role, leaving the door open for Brito or Bazzana to play their way into the second base job early in the season. Rocchio divided his time evenly between the middle infield spots this year, though he was mostly at the keystone in the second half. He’s out of options and probably isn’t in jeopardy of losing his roster spot, but he’s a .222/.293/.327 in more than 900 plate appearances over parts of three seasons. He’s entering his age-25 campaign and in a bit of a make-or-break spot himself if he’s going to remain an everyday player.

Jake Lamb Accepts Player Development Role With Diamondbacks

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Former All-Star third baseman Jake Lamb has accepted a player development role with the Diamondbacks, reports Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. That presumably marks the end of the 35-year-old’s playing career, in which he accrued more than eight years of MLB service.

Lamb’s move into his post-playing days fittingly comes with his original organization. He was a sixth-round pick by the D-Backs in 2012 out of the University of Washington. Lamb got to the big leagues two seasons later and emerged as the team’s everyday third baseman for a few years. He hit .263 with six homers in 107 games during his first full season before breaking out as a surprise power threat.

Between 2016-17, Lamb connected on 59 home runs. He reached 30 doubles in both seasons and combined for 13 triples. The lefty-hitting infielder posted a .248/.345/.498 slash in more than 1200 plate appearances. Lamb was worth around six to seven wins above replacement over that stretch, and he earned an All-Star selection in 2017. He popped 30 homers and drove in 105 runs in his career season, one of 19 players to reach 30 homers and 100 RBI that year. He helped the Snakes to a postseason berth and went 6-13 across four playoff contests.

Unfortunately, Lamb injured his left shoulder while diving for a ground-ball early in the ’18 season. He initially returned within five weeks but landed back on the injured list around the All-Star Break. Testing revealed a rotator cuff injury that required season-ending surgery. Lamb returned in 2019 but was never able to get back to his pre-injury form.

The power that had been his calling card didn’t return. He hit .193 with six homers in 78 games. His average had fallen to .116 during the shortened 2020 season when the D-Backs moved on. Lamb bounced around as a journeyman corner bat for the next few seasons. He suited up with the Athletics, White Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners and Angels between 2020-23. None of those stints lasted more than 43 games, and Chicago is the only other team for which he took 100+ plate appearances.

Lamb remained a productive Triple-A hitter through the 2023 season. His minor league numbers dropped over the past two seasons, though, and Triple-A stints with the Pirates and Giants didn’t result in another MLB opportunity. Lamb finishes his playing career with a .235/.326/.427 slash line across 2650 plate appearances. He connected on 96 home runs and tallied 342 RBI. He was a part of two playoff teams, as he also made four postseason appearances with the A’s in 2020. Congratulations to Lamb on a solid career and all the best in his post-playing days.

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