The Rangers’ Wide Open Infield Mix
The Rangers entered the offseason in need of a lineup reboot. They’ve had below-average offenses in consecutive years and haven’t strung together competitive at-bats consistently. They’ve been 20th and 26th, respectively, in on-base percentage over the last two seasons. Their walk rate dropped from 14th to 23rd. Their hitters were among the most aggressive in MLB, both on pitches within and outside the strike zone.
While that needed to be addressed, the front office is seemingly operating within a tight budget. They have five contracts on the books that pay at least $18.5MM annually. They’re now two years removed from their World Series run, and ownership began scaling back spending during the 2023-24 offseason in the wake of the collapse of their local broadcast agreement. Offseason reporting has cast doubt on their chances of meeting the asking price for even mid-tier free agent hitters J.T. Realmuto and Luis Arraez.
Texas has made a pair of significant changes on the offensive side, though they’ve each come with a notable corresponding subtraction. They swapped Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo, taking on more money overall but clearing a little payroll room in the short term. Nimmo provides the patient approach they’re seeking and allowed them to move on from Adolis García in right field. The other change has come behind the plate, where they non-tendered Jonah Heim after a second straight poor season. He has been replaced by Danny Jansen on a two-year free agent deal.
Catcher and the outfield mix are probably set. Jansen joins Kyle Higashioka as a veteran pairing behind the dish. Nimmo slots alongside Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter on the grass. However, they haven’t acquired anyone to replace Semien at second base. It seems they’re planning to do that internally. That’d be a tall ask for an infield group that was a weakness even with Semien.
The Rangers were in the bottom half of MLB in offense from each non-shortstop infield position. Semien’s strong defensive grades kept them above average at second base overall despite his declining production at the dish. The corners were the biggest issue. They had a combined .248/.298/.393 batting line from their first and third basemen.
Most of the positives came from utilityman Josh Smith, who had a .283/.369/.439 showing in his 227 plate appearances at those positions. If the Rangers don’t replace Semien externally, Smith is ticketed for regular playing time at second base. The other nine players who logged any corner infield reps last year combined to hit .241/.283/.384 in nearly 1100 trips.
Three players from that group — Rowdy Tellez, Dylan Moore and Blaine Crim — are no longer on the roster. Former first-round pick Justin Foscue is coming off back-to-back league average seasons in Triple-A and turns 27 before Opening Day. He’s probably on the roster bubble. Ezequiel Duran should be as well, as he’s a .237/.278/.309 hitter over the last two seasons. Joc Pederson made two starts at first base but was otherwise a full-time designated hitter, and he was a major disappointment in the first season of a two-year free agent deal.
As it stands, that leaves three players battling for the remaining two infield spots: Jake Burger, Josh Jung and Cody Freeman. Freeman, who turns 25 today, is coming off a fantastic Triple-A season but hit .228/.258/.342 in 36 MLB games. He’s a gifted contact hitter but doesn’t walk often and has questionable power upside. Freeman did slug a personal-best 19 homers at Triple-A Round Rock last year, but the Pacific Coast League inflates most hitters’ power numbers. He ranked near the bottom of the league in hard contact rate in his brief MLB look.
If Freeman settled in as an everyday third or second baseman, that’d allow Skip Schumaker to move Smith around the infield in a utility role. Freeman feels more like a utility type himself, though. Burger and Jung project as the primary corner infield tandem despite speculation that Texas could move on from one or both players.
The Rangers acquired Burger from the Marlins last offseason. He went on the injured list three times and had a brief stint in Triple-A when he slumped early in the year. Burger concluded his first season in Arlington with a replacement level performance. He hit .236/.269/.419 over 376 plate appearances and offered limited baserunning and defensive value. Burger underwent postseason surgery to address a tendon sheath tear in his left wrist. The hope is that his power was limited by playing through the issue and he can get back to being a 30-homer threat. Burger has never posted an OBP above .310 in a season (excluding a rookie year in which he played in 15 games), so he’s not going to get on base much even if the power returns.
Jung is a similarly aggressive hitter. The Rangers clearly grew frustrated with his approach. They optioned him after he’d hit .158 with a .208 on-base mark in June. He came back on a hot streak a few weeks later, but that was driven by a huge average on balls in play that masked a continuing rough strikeout/walk profile. Jung’s numbers crashed again in September. He finished the season with a .251/.294/.390 slash and seemed like a change-of-scenery candidate coming into the winter. There haven’t been any reports about the Rangers shopping Jung. It seems they’re leaning towards giving him a rebound opportunity, which could be driven by their lack of alternatives.
Maybe that’ll change once Spring Training approaches and free agent prices fall. Alex Bregman or Eugenio Suárez are probably out of their range no matter the timing. If Arraez lingers unsigned into February, could he come into play on a one-year deal? Rhys Hoskins or Yoán Moncada will sign affordable one-year contracts and would at least provide insurance at first or third base, respectively. Ryan Mountcastle should be traded now that the Orioles signed Pete Alonso. Would the Rangers be willing to meet a near-$8MM arbitration projection, or is Mountcastle too similar to Burger? Maybe Bregman signs with a team that has a semi-established third baseman who comes available as a trade chip.
Otherwise, the Rangers would be reliant on a handful of rebound hopefuls and a thin farm system. Top infield prospect Sebastian Walcott could be the answer by the end of the season. He has no Triple-A experience and doesn’t turn 20 until March, so he’s unlikely to break camp. First baseman Abimelec Ortiz hit his way onto the 40-man roster with a .257/.356/.479 showing between the top two minor league levels. Most prospect evaluators feel he projects as a bench bat/Quad-A type, but the opportunity is there if he can outperform that. Texas will need someone unexpected to step up to get enough production on the dirt.
Photo courtesy of Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images
Athletics Sign Tyler Soderstrom To Seven-Year Extension
Jan. 5: Some details on the breakdown are provided by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Soderstrom gets a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2026. His salary then jumps to $6MM, $10MM, $12MM, $16MM, $17MM and $19MM in the subsequent seasons. The 2033 club option is worth $27MM with a $2MM buyout. His 2032 and 2033 salaries can jump by $1MM or $2MM based on MVP finishing, though specifics of those escalators haven’t been reported. There should also be further escalators, considering Passan’s reporting that the deal can max out at $131MM. Soderstrom also gets some limited no-trade protection for 2032 and 2033, though details are also unreported in that department.
Dec. 29: The Athletics have formally announced the extension.
Dec. 25: The Athletics aren’t taking the holiday off. They’re in agreement with outfielder Tyler Soderstrom on a seven-year, $86MM extension, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Passan adds that there’s a club option for 2033 and escalators that could push the contract value by another $45MM if the option is exercised. The deal buys out at least three free agent years and potentially a fourth, keeping him under club control through his age-31 season. Soderstrom is represented by Paragon Sports International.
Soderstrom becomes the latest core offensive piece whom the A’s lock up on a long-term deal. They extended Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler on respective $60MM and $65.5MM guarantees last winter. Soderstrom tops those by a decent margin, becoming the largest contract in club history in the process. Their three-year, $67MM free agent deal with Luis Severino had previously been that high-water mark.
[Related: Largest Contract in Franchise History for Each MLB Team]
The lefty-hitting Soderstrom was a first-round pick in 2020. He’d been an excellent offensive player dating back to high school. The biggest question was where he’d fit on the other side of the ball. While Soderstrom was drafted as a catcher, most scouts felt he’d need to move off the position. That has essentially been borne out, as his only 15 MLB starts behind the dish came during his 2023 rookie season. The fallback for poor defensive catchers is generally first base, and that’s indeed where Soderstrom spent the early part of his big league tenure.
Soderstrom struggled over a 45-game sample as a rookie. His .233/.315/.429 slash across 213 plate appearances in 2024 was a significant step forward but hadn’t yet put him alongside Rooker, Butler and Shea Langeliers as clear members of the A’s core. Soderstrom entered this year with a little pressure in the form of 2024 fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz, a college first baseman who was expected to hit his way to the majors very quickly.
While Kurtz would do just that, Soderstrom’s breakout ’25 campaign ensured the A’s couldn’t afford to take him out of the lineup either. The 24-year-old was one of the league’s best hitters in the first few weeks of the season. He connected on nine home runs with a .284/.349/.560 slash before the end of April. Soderstrom was tied for fourth in MLB (behind only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suárez) in homers through the season’s first month. By the time Kurtz forced his way to the majors on April 21, Soderstrom was locked into the middle of Mark Kotsay’s batting order.
That presented the A’s with a positional dilemma. Rooker is an everyday designated hitter. The 6’5″, 240-pound Kurtz wasn’t going to be able to play anywhere other than first base. Despite his catching/first base background, Soderstrom is a solid athlete and average runner. The A’s threw him into left field on the fly even though he’d had no professional experience there. They presumably expected to live with some defensive growing pains to keep his bat in the lineup.
Soderstrom dramatically exceeded those expectations. He graded 10 runs better than an average left fielder by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast graded his range five plays above average. Soderstrom ended the season as a Gold Glove finalist at a position he’d never played five months earlier. He joins Butler as core outfield pieces, ideally in a corner tandem flanking defensive specialist Denzel Clarke in center.
The increased defensive responsibility didn’t impact Soderstrom’s rhythm at the plate. He scuffled between May and June but rebounded with a .305/.359/.530 showing over the season’s final four months. Soderstrom finished with an overall .276/.346/.474 batting line while ranking fourth on the team with 25 homers. He improved his contact rate by six percentage points and held his own against same-handed pitching (.270/.315/.423) while teeing off on righties (.278/.356/.491). The breakout also wasn’t a product of the A’s playing half their games at the hitter-friendly Sutter Heath Park. Soderstrom had an OPS north of .800 both at home and on the road.
As recently as this past summer, there was speculation about the A’s potentially swapping Soderstrom for a controllable starting pitcher. The extension firmly takes that off the table and ensures he’ll remain alongside Kurtz, Rooker, Butler and Jacob Wilson in an excellent offensive corps. The first three are signed through at least 2029. Kurtz and Wilson are under team control for five seasons. Langeliers has another two seasons of arbitration eligibility.
Soderstrom was already under club control for four seasons. He was a year closer to free agency than Butler was at the time of his extension, which explains why the price was a little more than $20MM higher. Soderstrom tops the $57.5MM guarantee which Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia received in the same service class, but that deal only extended K.C.’s control window by two seasons.
The A’s backloaded the Rooker and Butler extensions, with the highest salaries corresponding to their planned move to Las Vegas in 2028. The salary breakdown on Soderstrom’s deal hasn’t yet been reported. The A’s had a projected payroll around $87MM before today, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s $12MM above where they opened the ’25 season. General manager David Forst told MLB.com’s Martín Gallegos last week that the team was looking to upgrade a rotation that ranked 27th in ERA and 25th in strikeout percentage.
Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.
Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?
The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.
Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.
The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.
Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.
Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.
As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.
That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.
Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)
- Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Josh Hader, Tatsuya Imai, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson
Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.
Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.
McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.
Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.
Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”
Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)
- Enyel De Los Santos, Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Isaac Paredes, Jesús Sánchez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Nick Allen, Bennett Sousa, Hayden Wesneski
There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).
De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.
Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.
Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.
The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.
That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.
The Rockies’ Outfield Trade Possibilities
The Rockies have yet to make any significant moves since Paul DePodesta assumed control of baseball operations two months ago. They’re one of two teams that has yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. Unlike the Red Sox (the other team for which that’s the case), Colorado hasn’t done much via trade either. Their only moves on the trade front were to acquire lefty reliever Brennan Bernardino from Boston and to deal former first-round pick Ryan Rolison away for cash.
A quiet offseason was always to be expected for a new executive working with one of the worst rosters in MLB history. The Rox aren’t going to invest much in the 2026 team. They don’t have many productive veterans to dangle on the trade market. The exception might be in the outfield, as DePodesta hinted that he could subtract from that area to try to add controllable pitching.
Let’s look at the possibilities.
Doyle probably has the highest ceiling of Colorado’s outfielders. He may also be the least likely to move. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that the Rox were reluctant to sell low on the 27-year-old center fielder. Doyle is under arbitration control for four seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM salary.
A stellar defensive player, Doyle has been a target for teams looking for help in a thin center fielder market. The question is whether he’s capable of providing anything at the plate. Doyle looked to have taken a step forward in 2024. He hit 23 homers while cutting his strikeout rate nearly 10 percentage points from his 35% mark as a rookie. The bat dramatically regressed last year, as he stumbled to a .233/.274/.376 line with 15 homers. He kept his strikeout rate around 25% but hit more ground balls and made less of a power impact than he had the previous year.
Moniak is coming off his best year at the plate. Signed to a $1.25MM contract after being released by the Angels in Spring Training, the lefty hitter popped a career-high 24 homers for Colorado. He batted .270/.306/.518 across 461 trips to the dish. Moniak made hard contact (a 95 MPH+ exit velocity) on 45% of his balls in play, easily the best mark of his six MLB seasons.
The surface numbers would seem to make the former first overall pick a strong trade chip for a rebuilding team. The underlying splits aren’t so flattering. Moniak did the vast majority of his damage at Coors Field, where he hit .303/.348/.598 with 15 longballs. His .230/.255/.425 slash away from Denver is a lot less encouraging. Moniak’s rate stats are inflated by his usage, as the Rox shielded him to 60 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
There was also a dramatic dip in Moniak’s defensive grades. He had graded as a solid, albeit not exceptional, defender who could handle all three outfield spots with the Angels. His numbers in Colorado were well below average no matter where he played. Moniak remains a plus runner with an average arm, so the tools are there to be a competent defender, but it’s another question for interested clubs.
Moniak has between four and five years of service time. He’s controllable through 2027 and projected for a $4.2MM arbitration salary.
Colorado landed Freeman in last offseason’s Nolan Jones trade with the Guardians. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each graded him around a win below replacement level in his first year in Colorado. However, he showed more or less the same profile he had in Cleveland that made him a trade target for the Rox a year ago.
Freeman hit .281/.354/.361 while striking out in fewer than 12% of his 428 plate appearances. He was easily the team’s most consistent on-base threat. The 26-year-old has zero power but he puts the ball in play and has plus speed. As was the case with Moniak, Freeman’s WAR was depressed by dreadful defensive metrics that don’t fully align with his athleticism and arm strength.
A team that views the defensive grades as a one-year blip could still be in on Freeman as a utility piece for whom they’re willing to swap a depth arm. He’s controllable for three seasons with a $1.8MM arbitration projection and has a minor league option remaining.
A supplemental first-round pick in 2022, Beck got his first look at MLB pitching two years later. He had a rough go as a rookie, striking out at a 35% clip while hitting .188 over his first 55 games. His sophomore season was more promising. Beck spent a couple weeks in Triple-A in April but was otherwise on the MLB roster for the entire season. He worked as Colorado’s primary left fielder and put up decent counting stats. Beck hit 16 home runs, 27 doubles, and five triples while stealing 19 bases.
Beck’s .258/.317/.416 batting line was worse than league average after accounting for Coors Field. He whiffed on nearly 30% of his swings and struggled down the stretch, hitting .250/.316/.377 with a 32% strikeout rate after the All-Star Break. Beck’s physical tools are intriguing. He has above-average bat speed, runs well, and has a strong arm. The approach and pure hitting ability have been questions dating back to his college days, though, and the Rockies are probably better holding onto him to see if he makes any strides at age 25.
Veen and Fernández are left-handed hitting corner outfielders who once ranked among the top offensive prospects in the Colorado system. Both players hit well in the low minors but have seemingly plateaued against upper level pitching. Neither has any kind of MLB track record. Veen has only played in 12 big league games. Fernández hit .225/.265/.348 over 147 plate appearances as a rookie.
Both players have options remaining. They’re probably ticketed for Triple-A Albuquerque as things stand. They’re each young enough to be change of scenery candidates if Colorado’s new regime isn’t as bullish on them as the previous front office had been. That’s theoretically also true of prospect Sterlin Thompson, the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster. Thompson seems likelier to get a chance to play his way into Warren Schaeffer’s outfield next season on the heels of a .296/.392/.519 showing in Albuquerque.
Which Team Will Sign Kazuma Okamoto?
There are less than 48 hours until the posting window closes for NPB slugger Kazuma Okamoto. His first MLB contract needs to be finalized by Sunday at 4:00 pm Central. There’s a good chance Okamoto agrees to terms by tomorrow. Tatsuya Imai agreed to a three-year deal with the Astros yesterday to leave a day for a standard physical before his own signing deadline this afternoon.
The right-handed hitting Okamoto is one of the more interesting mid-tier free agent bats. He’s a career .277/.361/.521 hitter over parts of 11 seasons at Japan’s highest level. Okamoto was limited to 69 games last year by an elbow injury. That kept his counting stats down, yet his .327/.416/.598 slash line was the best rate production of his career. He has six 30-homer seasons on his résumé and walked as often as he struck out last year.
Okamoto is headed into his age-30 season. It’s unlikely that he’ll command a long-term deal, especially after younger Japanese stars Imai and Munetaka Murakami found cold enough markets to take short contracts. He should land with a club that views him as a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the next few seasons. While Okamoto doesn’t have the eye-popping power that Murakami brings to the table, he should have a higher floor based on his superior bat-to-ball skills. Okamoto made contact on 80.4% of his swings last year; Murakami’s contact rate has been below 64% in consecutive seasons.
Both players are corner bats. Murakami is expected to be a first baseman for the White Sox. Okamoto’s position probably depends on his landing spot. One scout with whom MLBTR spoke at the beginning of the offseason opined that he could play a serviceable but unspectacular third base. Okamoto made 52 appearances at the hot corner and played 27 games at first base for the Yomiuri Giants last season. He was primarily a first baseman the year before that, making 130 appearances there against 39 outings at third.
Okamoto was a full-time infielder last year. He has 164 career appearances on the outfield grass, though, including 15 two seasons ago. Will Sammon of The Athletic floated the possibility of an MLB team giving Okamoto some work in left field as another way to get his bat in the lineup.
The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Cubs have been at least loosely connected to Okamoto during his posting window. San Diego’s and Pittsburgh’s interest has come up most frequently, though it’s unclear how much to take from that. The White Sox weren’t tied to Murakami until very late in the process, while it wasn’t publicly known that the Astros were involved on Imai at all until an agreement was done.
Where will Okamoto end up?
Which Team Will Sign Kazuma Okamoto?
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Pirates 18% (3,263)
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Blue Jays 12% (2,099)
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Padres 9% (1,644)
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Angels 8% (1,507)
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Mariners 7% (1,194)
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Red Sox 6% (1,006)
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Mets 5% (931)
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None. He'll remain in Japan. 5% (895)
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Cubs 4% (702)
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Yankees 4% (647)
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Tigers 2% (446)
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White Sox 2% (421)
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Dodgers 2% (355)
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Phillies 2% (323)
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Giants 2% (278)
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Reds 1% (250)
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Diamondbacks 1% (247)
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Orioles 1% (207)
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Cardinals 1% (180)
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Guardians 1% (170)
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Braves 1% (161)
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Nationals 1% (149)
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Brewers 1% (145)
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Rangers 1% (140)
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Athletics 1% (132)
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Rays 1% (114)
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Rockies 1% (110)
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Twins 1% (99)
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Royals 1% (99)
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Astros 1% (91)
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Marlins 0% (86)
Total votes: 18,091
Astros Designate Kaleb Ort For Assignment
The Astros announced they’ve designated reliever Kaleb Ort for assignment. That opened the 40-man roster spot to finalize their three-year free agent deal with Tatsuya Imai.
Ort landed in Houston on a waiver claim from Baltimore early in the 2024 season. He turned in a 2.55 earned run average across 22 games the rest of the way. Ort made a career-high 49 appearances last year but was unable to maintain the numbers he showed in a smaller sample. He allowed 4.89 earned runs per nine across 46 innings.
The righty missed bats at an above-average clip and struck out more than a quarter of opposing hitters. That came alongside a near-14% walk rate, however, well above the 4.3% mark he’d posted in his MLB work a year earlier. Ort also allowed a higher than average home run rate for a third consecutive season. While manager Joe Espada preferred to use him in the middle innings, he was pressed into a few higher-leverage spots when Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa were lost to injury in August. That pushed Bryan Abreu into the closing role and left Ort as one of their more established right-handed setup arms.
It unfortunately didn’t take long before Ort joined his bullpen mates on the injured list. He went down with elbow inflammation at the beginning of September. That knocked him out for the rest of the season. There’s no indication he won’t be ready for Spring Training, but he was already on the roster bubble. Ort is out of minor league options and approaching his 34th birthday.
Houston has Hader, Abreu, Sousa, Steven Okert and Bryan King in the season-opening bullpen, assuming health. Enyel De Los Santos and Nate Pearson are out of options and near-locks to break camp. Pearson signed a $1.35MM free agent deal, while De Los Santos is guaranteed a $1.6MM salary after avoiding arbitration. There wouldn’t have been much flexibility for in-season maneuvering if they also carried Ort. He’ll be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days. Ort has less than three years of MLB service and no prior outright assignments, so the Astros could keep him around as a non-roster invitee if he gets through waivers unclaimed.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good holiday season!
- Lots in the queue today, let's get rolling
Natitude Dude
- Is M Gore getting dealt this off-season? If so, what kind of return can be expected after the Baz deal?
Anthony Franco
- I still think he'll get moved this offseason. Would expect a better headliner than Tampa Bay got in the Baz trade and a slightly stronger package overall. Think Gore's more valuable despite Baz have the extra year of arbitration control
KerryFam4
- We’ve now had two Japanese players sign short term deals with opt-outs at lower than expected rates. Do you think that will impact the remaining unsigned Japanese player(s)? Should we read anything from that into the markets for Tucker, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez, etc?
Anthony Franco
- Not reading a whole lot into it. Seems more that MLB teams didn't think Murakami or Imai are particularly good
- If all the top free agents are still unsigned two or three weeks from now, I'd come more around to the idea that of shorter-term contracts with outs for them
gavin
- should the padres trade pivetta to the cubs/mets/yankees for prospects and sign basset or giolito?
Anthony Franco
- I think it's too cute. Pivetta's just much better than those guys and the rotation is pretty weak beyond the top three. I understand the concern about potentially losing Pivetta and King next offseason, but the Padres are almost always operating in some kind of chaos like that because they overpaid Bogaerts, Darvish and Cronenworth
Guest
- In your opinion, which outlet is the best for prospect coverage? Is there one you guys typically use?
Anthony Franco
- Baseball America's the gold standard for me, but there's obviously a lot of good work out there and value in getting different outlets' opinions on players. We'll reference BA, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel's work at ESPN, Keith Law at The Athletic and MLB Pipeline
Arise, Sir Loin of Beef
- Are there any upper tier OFs available in a trade this year?
Anthony Franco
- It's not great, especially if Boston holds everybody. Donovan could kind of fit that description even though he's more impactful at second base and/or bouncing around the infield. We've seen that kind of ceiling from Robert and Nootbaar before but not recently
- I think it's more likely to come available at the deadline. Red Sox are pretty well positioned on the pitching staff now but injuries could change that by the summer. If Cleveland struggles, Kwan should go in July. Maybe Minnesota reevaluates on Buxton and their top starters at that point if their half-in hope of competing this year blows up
A's or Marlins?
- Between the A's and Marlins, which team do you believe is in a stronger position to compete for a wild card spot this season?
Anthony Franco
- I'd take Miami's roster right now but that probably flips if the A's add a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still think they're both long shots but more realistic dark horses than they've been entering any of the past couple seasons
Confused
- Why is Brendan Donovan so highly-sought after? Minimal power and he doesn’t have the .300 batting average to offset that?
Anthony Franco
- Almost no one hits .300 anymore. There were seven qualified hitters who have done that in each of the past two seasons. Donovan's a reliable bet to hit .280 with an OBP above .350. Not huge power but enough for double-digit homers and 30 doubles
- It's really tough to find players who do that while playing up the middle. The league average second baseman last year hit .243/.310/.371
Chris
- Who is one player you think could possibly be traded this offseason who has not been speculated in trade discussions?
Anthony Franco
- Still think the Giants should trade Robbie Ray to clear $25M next year for a move at second base or in right field
Giacomo Puccini
- Who’s the best active player not to win an MVP?
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Will The Royals Trade A Starter?
Early in the offseason, Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said the team was open to trading a starting pitcher for offense. That would have been focused on the outfield, which has been a problem for the club for years.
Kansas City has acquired a pair of outfielders in the month since Picollo’s comments. They signed Lane Thomas to a reclamation $5.5MM free agent deal, then swapped lefty reliever Angel Zerpa to Milwaukee for Isaac Collins and middle reliever Nick Mears. Those moves raised the floor relative to where the outfield stood at the end of the 2025 season, yet it remains one of the weaker on-paper groups in MLB.
Kyle Isbel is a low-end regular in center field. Collins had a strong season but was a 27-year-old rookie whose results outpaced mediocre batted ball metrics. The Royals probably don’t expect him to be more than an average regular in left field. Jac Caglianone has the highest ceiling of the group, but MLB pitchers exploited his aggressive plate approach in his first 62 games. Caglianone so thoroughly dominated the minor leagues that the Royals might feel he has little to learn by going back to Triple-A. Still, there are sure to be peaks and valleys even if he takes a step forward in his first full MLB season. Thomas battled injuries and was mostly unproductive after being traded from the Nationals to the Guardians at the ’24 deadline.
Depth options John Rave, Dairon Blanco, Drew Waters and Kameron Misner (acquired in a DFA trade with Tampa Bay) have shown very little at the big league level. That makes it unsurprising that the Royals continue to monitor the outfield market after the Collins/Thomas deals. Working with seemingly limited payroll space and a weak farm system, trading a starter could still be on the table — even if it seems less likely than it did a month ago.
Picollo has strongly downplayed the chance of moving Cole Ragans. He’s controllable for three seasons and has shown ace upside but is coming off a significant rotator cuff injury. They extended Michael Wacha last offseason and Seth Lugo before the trade deadline. It’s hard to see either veteran righty going anywhere.
Left-hander Kris Bubic is headed into his final season of arbitration control. He pitched at a top-of-the-rotation level but suffered a season-ending rotator cuff strain not long after the All-Star Break. Southpaw Noah Cameron had a sub-3.00 ERA over his first 24 career starts despite a below-average 20.5% strikeout rate. Controllable depth arms Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek have drawn interest but have minor league options and could be key injury insurance in Triple-A. They’re presumably open to moving Bailey Falter, but he’d have minimal trade value. Alec Marsh has gotten interest in the past but underwent labrum surgery in November and will likely miss the entire season.
Will anyone from that group be on the move before Opening Day?
Will The Royals Trade A Starter This Offseason?
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Yes. They'll trade Bubic. 35% (1,467)
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No, they'll hold their rotation depth. 32% (1,357)
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Yes. They'll trade one of Cameron, Bergert, or Kolek. 18% (771)
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Yes. They'll trade one of Ragans, Lugo, Wacha. 14% (597)
Total votes: 4,192
The Rays’ Second Base Options
The Rays made a pair of significant trades last month, shipping Shane Baz to Baltimore and Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh on the same day. The Baz move probably means they’re going to dip back into free agency for a cheap back-end starter after signing Steven Matz to a two-year deal. It’s less clear what they have planned at second base, a position that Lowe has locked down (when healthy) for the past seven years.
Free agency doesn’t offer much excitement. It seems safe to assume the Rays aren’t signing Bo Bichette. The open market options beyond that include Willi Castro, Ramón Urías and Luis Rengifo. The biggest swings they could take are on the trade market.
Tampa Bay hasn’t been prominently tied to Brendan Donovan. They’ve had conversations with the Diamondbacks about Ketel Marte going back to the Winter Meetings. Those preliminary talks involved both Baz and Ryan Pepiot. That framework is obviously no longer an option, and while the Rays could make a compelling package involving Pepiot and controllable relief help, Arizona GM Mike Hazen indicated earlier this week that they could soon cut off talks regarding Marte altogether. Each of Jake Cronenworth, Nico Hoerner and Jazz Chisholm Jr. feel like long shot trade candidates.
If the Rays don’t find a clear answer outside the organization, where could they turn at the keystone?
Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times wrote last month that Palacios was likely to be the top internal option. Acquired from the Cardinals over the 2023-24 offseason, the left-handed hitter turned in a .223/.346/.318 line over 316 plate appearances in his first season with the club. He batted .333 with a .396 on-base percentage last year but was limited to 17 games. Palacios fractured his right ring finger during Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He returned in April but quickly suffered a right knee sprain that kept him out until September.
Palacios had missed two months late in the ’24 campaign with a sprain of the same knee. He has played in barely more than a third of the team’s games over the past two seasons. “(He’s) a player we really appreciate, but he’s got to prove healthy,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander told Topkin in December. “He’s certainly a candidate internally, but we’re going to give ourselves a little bit of time to sort through it.”
At his best, Palacios shows the makings of a potential high-OBP bat. He takes a lot of pitches and has good contact skills with solid line drive rates. Palacios doesn’t have huge power but has a .370 on-base percentage over five Triple-A seasons. While the Rays haven’t given him much of a look against lefty pitching in the big leagues, he has more than held his own in his limited opportunities.
Walls is a more well-known commodity. He’s a 29-year-old who owns a .195/.286/.298 career batting line in more than 1500 plate appearances. He’s not going to produce at the plate. The Rays love Walls as an up-the-middle defensive player. Public metrics have been bizarrely divided on his work. Statcast’s Outs Above Average grades him below average, yet Defensive Runs Saved annually rates him as a Gold Glove caliber infielder.
The Rays’ internal evaluation must align much more closely to the DRS view. They wouldn’t continue bringing Walls back via arbitration if they didn’t consider him a defensive asset. He’ll play next season on a $2.45MM salary and is controlled for 2027 via $3.1MM team option. Walls will get a lot of action in the middle infield, but he’s likely to begin the season on the left side of the bag.
Tampa Bay waived Ha-Seong Kim in August and used rookie Carson Williams as their shortstop for the final month of the 2025 season. The 22-year-old was overmatched, striking out 44 times and batting .172 in 32 games. Williams also struck out in more than 34% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He has power and is a plus defensive shortstop but is likely to head back to Triple-A to continue working on getting his contact rate to a manageable level.
That’d leave Walls as the only real choice to play shortstop in the early going. Free agency and the trade market are even thinner there than they are at second base. Walls could kick over to second base midseason if Williams plays his way back to the majors.
Position Change Hypotheticals
While the Rays generally have a stockpile of multi-positional players, that’s not so much a strength of the current roster. Jonathan Aranda came up as a second baseman but moved off the position for defensive reasons. He has only played 141 innings there in the big leagues and was a full-time first baseman last year. Aranda is a below-average athlete and runner who probably isn’t moving back up the defensive spectrum.
Chandler Simpson was a middle infielder in college but has been a full-time outfielder since being drafted in 2022. Topkin notes that the 25-year-old took some pregame infield drills late in the season, though it’s not clear if the Rays will continue that next year. Despite being one of the fastest players in the sport, Simpson isn’t an especially gifted defensive outfielder. Maybe that’ll lead the coaching staff to give serious consideration to testing him on the dirt in 2026. Simpson stole 44 bases while batting .295/.326/.345 with zero home runs in 109 games as a rookie.
Cubs Notes: Imai, Okamoto
Tatsuya Imai came off the board this afternoon. He agreed to terms with the Astros on a three-year, $54MM guarantee with opt-outs after the first two seasons. It was both a surprise landing spot and contract, as the NPB right-hander had generally been expected to pull a nine-figure deal that probably would have priced him out of Houston.
The Cubs were among the teams most commonly speculated as a fit for Imai over his 45-day posting window. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote last month that Chicago was involved but reluctant to make a long-term commitment that valued him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. The rest of the market evidently shared that trepidation.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Cubs appear to have been the top competition to Houston by the end of the signing period. Both Feinsand and Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggest that neither the Yankees nor Mets were heavily involved. The Yankees may be more focused on the lineup — they reportedly have an offer out to Cody Bellinger — while previous reporting has indicated the Mets aren’t eager to make a long-term investment in a free agent starter. Imai apparently was not going to be an exception, as Feinsand writes that the Mets weren’t convinced he’d be a top-of-the-rotation starter.
An upper mid-rotation starter has been the Cubs’ biggest need all offseason. They’ve yet to make any moves in the rotation aside from declining their option on and then retaining Shota Imanaga via the qualifying offer. They’re still lacking a high-end complement to Cade Horton at the top of the staff, at least until Justin Steele returns from April’s elbow surgery.
Imanaga had a terrible final few weeks as his home run rate spiked. Matthew Boyd was excellent in the first half but appeared to wear down as the season went along. His 179 2/3 innings pitched were 101 more than he’d thrown in any MLB season since 2019. Boyd took a 2.34 earned run average into the All-Star Break but allowed a 4.63 mark over his final 12 appearances. His strikeout rate dropped more than four percentage points in the second half. He’s headed into his age-35 season. Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea and Javier Assad profile as back-end or swing options.
The Cubs could still pursue any of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen if they want to add a starter via free agency. Teams have set significant asking prices in talks involving starting pitching, though the likes of MacKenzie Gore or Kris Bubic remain trade candidates.
RosterResource calculates Chicago’s luxury tax projection around $210MM. That leaves them almost $35MM below the base threshold and $21MM shy of their season-ending mark from 2025. They should have some payroll flexibility. If they don’t like the value on any available starting pitchers, they could potentially turn their attention to the offense as a way to replace some of the production lost from Kyle Tucker (whom they’re not expected to re-sign).
The Cubs have been loosely linked to third basemen, in particular. Reports have tied them to Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suárez, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer gave a firm vote of confidence to in-house third baseman Matt Shaw. This evening, Heyman listed the Cubs among a number of teams that have shown some interest in NPB star Kazuma Okamoto. The right-handed hitting corner infielder has until Sunday afternoon to sign.
Okamoto has been also been tied to the Padres, Pirates, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels this offseason. Most of those teams make more sense as landing spots than the Cubs, who have Shaw and Michael Busch at the corners. Plugging Okamoto in at designated hitter would block the path to at-bats for young hitters Moisés Ballesteros and Owen Caissie. Okamoto could take at-bats against lefty pitching from Busch but would have a cleaner path to everyday playing time with a team like Pittsburgh (at third base) or San Diego (at first base).