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Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: First Base

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams kicked things off with a look at a generally weak catching class. There’s a stronger group at first base, even if age is an issue for a lot of these players. A quick note on eligibility: we’re looking only at players who have appeared in the majors this season and are either primary first baseman or have logged 100+ innings at the position. Utility players like Enrique Hernández and Brandon Drury can play first base but will be covered in future positional previews. Ages are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on September 18.

Top of the Class

Alonso is in a tier of his own in this year’s first base class. He is one of the sport’s preeminent power bats. Even in a relative down year, he has drilled 33 homers while slugging .472. Alonso has topped 30 longballs in all five full seasons of his career and was on a 43-homer pace during the shortened schedule. His .246/.331/.472 batting line is 26 points better than league average, according to wRC+. That’s tied for fifth among first basemen (min. 400 PAs) and feels like Alonso’s floor for the next few years.

The Mets will make him a qualifying offer, which he’ll reject. Alonso reportedly declined a $158MM extension offer in 2023 — made under former GM Billy Eppler. He’ll probably take aim at $200MM, though it has been more than a decade since any first basemen hit that mark. The more recent Matt Olson ($168MM) and Freddie Freeman ($162MM) guarantees may be more realistic benchmarks.

Everyday Players

Walker didn’t get a real MLB look until his age-28 season. He seized the opportunity once it finally presented itself and is one of the best all-around first basemen in the sport. Walker won consecutive Gold Gloves between 2022-23 while posting an OPS above .800 in three straight years. He has 26 homers — including seven in just 29 plate appearances as a visitor at Dodger Stadium — with an excellent .257/.342/.485 slash line. An oblique strain that shelved him through August is the main reason he might not get to 30 homers for a third straight year.

Arizona has an easy call to tag Walker with a qualifying offer. He’s likely to decline in search of a three- or four-year contract. Multi-year deals for first basemen in their mid-30s are rare, but Walker should be in high enough demand to merit it.

Goldschmidt had one of the worst stretches of his career early in the season. As Steve Adams explored this week, the 2022 NL MVP has kicked things into gear in recent weeks. This will be Goldy’s worst season overall, as he has career lows in all three slash stats (.242/.302/.412). His .270/.322/.485 line since the All-Star Break is more in line with what the Cardinals were expecting. Goldschmidt has never hit free agency — he signed extensions with both Arizona and St. Louis — and therefore has never received a qualifying offer. It seems unlikely that St. Louis would risk him accepting a salary exceeding $21MM for next year, but that’d be an alright investment if the Cards expect him to carry his second-half form into 2025.

The Twins signed Santana for $5.25MM in February. He had a terrible April but has been a steady, productive player over the past few months. Since the start of May, the switch-hitter owns a strong .253/.339/.446 line with 18 homers across 446 plate appearances. He remains one of the three to five best defensive first basemen in the game despite his age. The ultra-durable Santana has again avoided the injured list and has reached 140 games for the 12th time in his career. He certainly doesn’t carry the upside of Alonso or Walker, but he has easily outperformed Minnesota’s modest investment.

Turner is more of a designated hitter than a full-time first baseman, but he has gotten 35 starts at the position between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Turner had a fairly modest .256/.350/.372 showing over 91 games with Toronto. It looked as if he might be slowing down at age 39, but he has found another gear since being traded at the deadline. Turner owns a .260/.361/.420 slash with five home runs in 39 games with Seattle — impressive power output in a home park that has stymied a lot of the M’s offensive acquisitions. By measure of wRC+, Turner has been 17 percentage points above league average at the plate. That’s slightly better than last year’s .276/.345/.455 showing with the Red Sox. Turner got $13MM last offseason and still hasn’t dropped off.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

Bell had a rough first few months, hitting .239/.305/.394 in 104 games with the Marlins. He has found his stride after a deadline trade to Arizona, where he carries a .278/.364/.421 slash with four homers through 154 trips to the plate. The aggregate production is still middling — a league average .249/.320/.401 line with very poor defensive grades — but Bell is finishing the season on a high note. He has been a streaky hitter throughout his career who can hit in the middle third of a lineup when he’s at his best.

Canha has logged a career-high 356 1/3 innings at first base, a bit more time than he has played in the outfield. That’s probably a sign of things to come as he gets into his late-30s. The affable veteran has a .238/.341/.342 slash over 451 plate appearances between the Tigers and Giants on the season. He won’t match this year’s $11.5MM salary but should have no trouble finding another big league deal.

Late-career Solano just hits. The righty-swinging infielder has been an average or better hitter in six straight seasons. Solano has carried that over in stints between the Giants, Reds, Twins and Padres. He’s sporting a .286/.340/.412 slash with seven homers through 285 plate appearances for San Diego this season. The market doesn’t value Solano’s skillset highly — he had to settle for a minor league deal last offseason — but he’s a nice player to have in a bat-first role off the bench.

Tellez started the season horribly, went on an absolute tear midway through the summer, and has crashed back to earth in September. In aggregate, he has a .245/.302/.395 slash with 13 homers over 410 plate appearances for the Pirates. It’s slightly below-average offense and sub-replacement production overall considering his lack of defensive value. Tellez has decent career numbers against right-handed pitching (.235/.302/.450) and is a better fit as a lefty bench bat than a regular at first base.

Depth Types

Abreu was one of the worst players in the league in the season’s first half. The former MVP hit .124/.167/.195 over 35 games. The Astros released him midway through the second season of his ill-fated $58.5MM free agent deal. Reporter Francys Romero tweeted in June that Abreu would sit out the rest of the season but could make a comeback effort next year. It’d be on a minor league deal, but if he gets back to the majors, he’d only make the league minimum with his new team. Houston still owes him the rest of his $19.5MM salary.

Cooper appeared in 36 games between the Cubs and Red Sox, hitting .206/.267/.299 while striking out 30% of the time. He has been far better over a 19-game stint in Triple-A with the Orioles, where he sports a .299/.388/.493 slash with four homers.

Davis is in Triple-A with the Orioles, his fourth organization of the year. After being cut loose by the Giants in a late spring cost-saving move, he has slumped to a career-worst .218/.293/.338 line between the A’s and Yankees. Davis hasn’t hit at all in the minors either, striking out at a 44.4% clip while batting .150 in 30 games. He was a solid regular for San Francisco just last season and should be able to find a minor league deal somewhere.

Gallo is hitting .152/.276/.305 across 67 games with the Nationals on a $5MM free agent deal. Washington is going to decline its end of a 2025 mutual option. Gallo is striking out as much as ever and hasn’t hit for anywhere near the level of power necessary to offset that.

Gurriel spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Braves. He had an impressive .292/.378/.485 showing. While that didn’t earn him a look in Atlanta, the Royals acquired him in a minor trade after losing Vinnie Pasquantino to injury. Gurriel is hitting .385 over 10 games with Kansas City.

Smith got a decent run as the Red Sox’s fill-in while Triston Casas was injured. The former Met took 278 plate appearances and posted a slightly below-average .237/.317/.390 line with six home runs. He briefly caught on with the Reds after Boston let him go. Smith didn’t hit over a minuscule nine-game sample in Cincinnati and has been a free agent since the Reds removed him from the 40-man roster earlier this month.

Urshela is primarily a third baseman, but he logged 15 starts at first base for Detroit this year. Between the Tigers and Braves, he owns a mediocre .241/.280/.335 slash with six homers across 422 plate appearances. It’s his least productive year since he broke out as an everyday player with the Yankees in 2019.

The former All-Star hasn’t been the same since a bout with thoracic outlet syndrome. Walsh hit .226/.317/.321 in 17 games for the Rangers while Nathaniel Lowe was on the injured list early this season. He subsequently hit .185 with a 37% strikeout rate in Triple-A for the White Sox and was released a couple weeks before the deadline.

Player Options

Bellinger can opt out of his three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs. He’d be leaving $50MM on the table to do so and has another opt-out chance after next season. Bellinger has had a nice season but hasn’t answered teams’ questions about his subpar exit velocities. He’s hitting .268/.330/.435 with 18 homers while striking out at just a 16% clip. He’s still capable of playing center field but has also gotten decent run in right field and at first base. Bellinger could probably beat $50MM if he simply wanted to maximize his guarantee, but he’s not likely to match next year’s $27.5MM salary on a multi-year pact. He could bet on himself and view the 2025-26 offseason as the right time to opt out.

Hoskins signed with the Brewers on a two-year, $34MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. It’s a net $18MM call. He’d collect a $4MM buyout if he opts out or could secure an $18MM salary for next season (plus a matching $4MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option). This isn’t a great time to retest the market. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have each graded the typically consistent Hoskins as a replacement level player this year. He has 25 homers but personal lows in batting average (.212) and on-base percentage (.299) while striking out a career-high 28% rate. If he goes on a tear in the playoffs, maybe the calculus changes, but this looks like an option that’ll be exercised.

Flores holds a $3.5MM option on his deal with the Giants. San Francisco would have an $8.5MM option if the veteran infielder declined his end. That won’t be necessary, as Flores looks like a lock to take the $3.5MM salary. He hit .206/.277/.318 across 242 plate appearances and suffered a season-ending right knee injury in July.

Club Options

The Orioles hold an $8MM option for next season. O’Hearn’s strong first half made that look like a clear bargain. The left-handed hitter went into the All-Star Break with a .274/.335/.456 line with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His plate discipline is still strong but his power has dissipated in the second half. O’Hearn only has two homers with a .224/.317/.340 line since the Break, including a .163/.226/.245 showing this month. Baltimore should have a lot of payroll flexibility and could bet on O’Hearn to bounce back, but this is more of a borderline call than it seemed six weeks ago.

The Yankees are going to opt for a $6MM buyout in lieu of a $17MM option on Rizzo. The three-time All-Star is hitting .219/.285/.330 over 347 plate appearances. He missed a couple months earlier in the season after breaking his arm in a collision with Boston reliever Brennan Bernardino. This has been Rizzo’s toughest year since his rookie campaign.

Blue Jays Notes: Wagner, Bichette

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The Blue Jays placed Will Wagner on the 60-day injured list yesterday, bringing his rookie season to an early close. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that the infielder will undergo a left knee scope tomorrow. It’s a minor arthroscopic procedure that is expected to prevent Wagner from participating in baseball activities for a month. He should have ample time to progress through most of the offseason and be ready for Spring Training.

Toronto acquired Wagner alongside Jake Bloss and Joey Loperfido in a strong trade package for rental starter Yusei Kikuchi. Wagner was in Triple-A with the Astros at the time of the trade. The Jays briefly sent him to their top affiliate before calling him up in mid-August. The lefty-hitting second baseman made a strong first impression, running a .305/.337/.451 slash with a pair of homers in 24 games.

Wagner had a very strong year in Triple-A to earn the MLB look. He combined for a .315/.432/.444 line through 355 minor league plate appearances. Wagner drew 59 walks while striking out just 37 times. Assuming the surgery rehab goes as planned, he could compete for the second base job in camp. Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Ernie Clement should split the remaining time there this season.

On the other side of the infield, the Jays scratched Bo Bichette minutes before Wednesday’s loss to the Rangers. The shortstop suffered a contusion on his right middle finger. Manager John Schneider said after the game that Bichette was injured while taking grounders in pregame warm-ups (link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). He’ll go for x-rays tomorrow.

Bichette just returned from the injured list on Tuesday. A calf strain had sidelined him since the middle of July. That was the second calf-related IL stint of what has been an extremely frustrating season. If he did suffer any kind of finger fracture, the Jays would presumably shut him down for the year. Bichette has appeared in 81 games and owns a career-worst .225/.277/.322 batting line.

Diamondbacks Release Dylan Floro

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The Diamondbacks released reliever Dylan Floro after a weekend DFA, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Floro would almost certainly have declined a minor league assignment so a release was a formality once he was taken off the roster.

Arizona acquired Floro in one of the final moves of deadline day. The acquisition cost was modest, as they sent minor league signee Andrés Chaparro to the Nationals. (Chaparro has since made his MLB debut and is hitting .218/.273/.427 in 30 games.) Floro wasn’t the most exciting addition but he’d pitched quite well for Washington. He carried a 2.06 ERA in 52 1/3 innings for the Nats. That success was built on plus control and decent ground-ball rates rather than power, but the Snakes hoped he’d add veteran stability to the middle relief corps.

Things went downhill almost immediately. Floro worked scoreless appearances in three of his first four outings. The Phillies tagged him for three runs on August 11, the first of a handful of times that he was hit hard. Floro allowed multiple runs on three more occasions, including a five-run drubbing at the hands of the Brewers in his final appearance with Arizona on Saturday. He finished his Diamondback tenure with a 9.37 earned run average across 15 outings. His already modest 19.6% strikeout rate has nearly halved to 10.7% while the average velocity on his sinker has fallen to 88.4 MPH this month.

Floro is playing on a $2.25MM base salary. He’ll collect the remainder of that money. He also unlocked $1.25MM in bonuses based on appearances. He’d be ineligible for postseason play with another team, so he could sit out the final week and a half of this season. Floro would be a free agent in the offseason even if he caught on somewhere in the next couple days.

Entering his age-34 season, Floro might be limited to minor league offers. His overall 3.80 ERA in 68 2/3 innings is decent production for a middle reliever, but his market will surely be adversely impacted by the dismal finish. Washington signed him to a guaranteed deal coming off a lesser 4.76 ERA last winter, though his 2023 peripherals (23.4% strikeout rate, 54.4% grounder percentage) were better. Floro’s velocity is down more than two ticks relative to last season.

Mutual Interest Between Rockies, Jacob Stallings In Reunion

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The Rockies are carrying three catchers for September. Colorado promoted prospect Drew Romo in conjunction with last month’s release of Elias Díaz. He joins fellow rookie Hunter Goodman and veteran Jacob Stallings in Bud Black’s catching corps.

Colorado probably won’t want to commit fully to the unproven duo of Romo and Goodman next season. It seems the club will look to keep Stallings in the fold. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding suggested last week that Colorado could try to bring him back. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote similarly in a reader mailbag this morning that there’s mutual interest.

Stallings signed a $2MM deal with the Rox last offseason. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and due at least a $500K buyout on a $2MM mutual option for next season. While the simplest course of action would be for both sides to exercise the option, that’s exceedingly rare. Stallings figures to decline his end even if he hopes to stay in Denver. There’s a $1.5MM difference between the option value and the buyout. The 34-year-old backstop (35 in December) has played well enough to pursue a larger sum.

In 77 games, Stallings is hitting .260/.353/.450. He’s not likely to replicate a .319 average on balls in play, but he has a personal-high nine homers in 267 plate appearances. Stallings has roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers to go with that slight uptick in power.

Any kind of offensive production from Stallings is a bonus. His primary value lies in his defensive acumen. Stallings won a Gold Glove with the Pirates in 2021. He has a strong game-calling reputation and seemingly works well as a mentor to the team’s younger catchers. Stallings has thrown out a solid 22.5% of baserunners and remains one of the sport’s most sure-handed defenders. He has only been charged with one passed ball this season and has committed all of four passed balls since the start of 2021. Stallings doesn’t grade well as a pitch framer, but he’s otherwise a solid option behind the plate.

Stallings will probably be limited to one year but should earn a raise. Colorado signed him coming off a rough two-year stretch in Miami, where he hit .210/.287/.290 with lesser defensive grades. This year’s production could push his salary closer to guarantees secured by Luke Maile ($3.5MM), Austin Hedges ($4MM) and Martín Maldonado ($4.25MM) last winter.

Goodman and Stallings have taken the majority of recent playing time. Romo, 23, has been pushed into a third catcher role after starting his MLB career with a .174/.208/.239 slash through 13 games. Saunders writes that the Rox could send Romo back to Triple-A to start next season and rely on a Stallings/Goodman tandem if they re-sign the veteran.

The Juan Soto Blockbuster Has Been Even Better Than Expected

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Last winter's Juan Soto trade was the biggest in a long while -- probably the most significant since the previous Soto deal. The Padres were slashing payroll and didn't want to accommodate a salary north of $30MM for his final year of arbitration. Extension talks never got off the ground. The Padres were about to lose four potential starting pitchers to free agency, leaving them with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and a bunch of questions.

San Diego determined to build their return for Soto around MLB-ready starting pitching. They'd not only shed payroll but directly address the biggest need on the roster. It's impossible to trade Juan Soto and not deal a huge hit to the lineup, but the Padres could mitigate some of that loss by bringing back rotation help. Even the San Diego front office probably didn't envision it turning around the staff to this extent.

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Pirates Select Jake Woodford

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September 18: The Bucs have now made it official. Right-hander Kyle Nicolas has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 17, with a left oblique strain. That opens an active roster spot. Righty Ben Heller has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot. Heller landed on the 15-day IL August 30 due to right shoulder inflammation, so his season is over.

September 17: The Pirates will promote right-hander Jake Woodford to start tomorrow’s game in St. Louis, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). He’s on a minor league contract, so the Bucs need to select him onto the 40-man roster.

It’ll be Woodford’s second stint with the Bucs and his third appearance in the majors this season. The 27-year-old began the season with the White Sox, allowing 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings. He had a longer leash with Pittsburgh but continued to struggle. Woodford pitched to a 6.95 ERA across 22 frames before the Pirates designated him for assignment at the end of August.

This will be Woodford’s first appearance against the Cardinals. He’d played with St. Louis for his entire career until this season. The 39th overall pick of the 2015 draft, he pitched 184 2/3 innings over four MLB campaigns with the Cards. Woodford managed a respectable 4.29 earned run average overall, but he struggled to a 6.23 mark across 47 2/3 innings last season. The Cardinals non-tendered him as a result.

Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster is at capacity, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move tomorrow. Woodford is out of options and cannot be sent back to the minors without going on waivers. There’s a good chance the Bucs take him off the 40-man roster early in the offseason even if he sticks in the majors for the final two weeks of the regular season.

Daulton Varsho To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Daulton Varsho will undergo surgery to repair a rotator cuff injury in his right shoulder, he tells Hazel Mae (X link). Toronto manager John Schneider told the Toronto beat (relayed on X by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) that the Jays will have a clearer timeline once Varsho completes the procedure. Schneier didn’t rule out the possibility that the rehab process carries into next year’s Spring Training.

That brings an early end to the outfielder’s second year in Toronto. Varsho hit .214/.293/.407 with 18 homers, 21 doubles and seven triples through 513 plate appearances. That’s league average offensive production, by measure of wRC+, with Varsho’s power helping to offset the poor on-base mark. It’s a better year than he had in 2023, when he hit .220/.285/.389 despite offense being higher around the league than it has been this season.

Varsho may not recapture the 27-homer form that he showed during his final season with the Diamondbacks. He can still be a very productive player even with league average offense. The former catcher has developed into one of the game’s premier defensive outfielders. Varsho had fantastic marks for his 672 innings of center field work and his 400+ frames in left field. Statcast has him tied for second among outfielders (behind Washington’s Jacob Young) in Outs Above Average. Defensive Runs Saved credited Varsho with an incredible 28 runs above average — not only the best in MLB but five runs clear of second-place Jarren Duran.

Those defensive metrics should earn Varsho his first Gold Glove. He’ll go into next season as Toronto’s everyday center fielder if he’s healthy. Any kind of offseason setback could put that in doubt, but for now, there’s no indication the Jays will need to look outside the organization for center field help.

Nathan Lukes, who has taken over in center, looks like a solid fourth outfielder. He’d be an option to pick up some early-season starts if Varsho falls behind schedule. George Springer has plenty of center field experience but he has only played one game there this season. As he enters his age-35 season, Springer seems firmly committed to right field.

Varsho is under team control for another two seasons. He made $5.65MM in his second of four years of arbitration. He’ll likely land somewhere in the $8-10MM range next year.

Reds’ Brandon Williamson Leaves Start With Elbow Strain

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Reds starter Brandon Williamson left tonight’s start against the Braves in obvious discomfort. The southpaw looked to be in a lot of pain after throwing a pitch to Michael Harris II in the second inning (video provided by Pitching Ninja). Williamson came out of the game and Cincinnati later announced that he suffered an elbow strain (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds have yet to provide much beyond that initial diagnosis. They’ll presumably send Williamson for imaging within the next couple days.

The left-hander has spent most of the season on the injured list. Williamson suffered a shoulder injury in Spring Training. While it initially looked as if he might need to undergo surgery, he managed to treat the issue with a series of injections. Williamson returned to the MLB staff this month. He’d allowed four runs (three earned) across 13 innings over his first three appearances of the season.

Williamson started 23 games for Cincinnati last year. The TCU product made his MLB debut in May and tossed 117 innings of 4.46 ERA ball over the next few months. Williamson was hit hard early on but turned in a 3.97 ERA in 70 1/3 frames after the All-Star Break. He had a good chance of securing a spot at the back of David Bell’s Opening Day rotation had he been healthy.

That wasn’t the case, and he’ll now hope that tonight’s elbow injury isn’t as serious as it initially seems. The Reds will certainly shut him down for the final couple weeks of this season. If he incurred significant ligament damage, that’d obviously have the potential for surgery that could sideline him next year.

Assuming the Reds place Williamson on the injured list, he’ll join Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott. Rotation injuries have been a huge factor in Cincinnati’s disappointing season. Bell indicated before tonight’s game that the Reds are hopeful of getting Greene and Abbott back before the end of the year (relayed on X by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Lodolo, who went on the IL in late August with a finger sprain, will not return this season.

Nick Maton Accepts Outright Assignment With Orioles

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The Orioles announced this evening that Nick Maton cleared outright waivers. He accepted an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk instead of electing free agency. Baltimore had designated Maton and lefty Cole Irvin for assignment on Saturday; the Twins claimed Irvin off waivers.

Maton has had a pair of brief stints on the major league roster. He has picked up five at-bats, going hitless with a couple strikeouts. The 27-year-old infielder has had a strong year with Norfolk. Maton has hit 16 homers with an excellent 13.2% walk rate en route to a .261/.368/.477 slash in 86 games. He carries a .251/.367/.431 batting line in a little more than 1000 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level.

A former 7th-round pick by the Phillies, Maton went to the Tigers as part of the Gregory Soto trade return. He appeared in a career-high 93 games with Detroit last season but struggled on both sides of the ball. Maton hit .173/.288/.305 in 249 plate appearances. That and his out-of-options status have led teams to pass on claiming him for the second time this year.

Maton will stick around as non-roster infield depth. He’d be eligible for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason if the Orioles don’t call him back up.

Nathan Eovaldi Unlocks 2025 Player Option

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Nathan Eovaldi completed four innings in tonight’s start against Toronto. That was the necessary cutoff to vest a $20MM player option for next season.

Eovaldi signed with the Rangers over the 2022-23 offseason on a two-year, $34MM guarantee. He collected a $2MM signing bonus and respective $16MM salaries during the first two years. To unlock the option, Eovaldi needed to throw a combined 300 innings over the two seasons. He has now done just that, reaching 156 frames this season after throwing 144 innings during his first campaign in Texas.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored yesterday, there’s a good chance the righty gets to free agency in either case. Eovaldi has had a strong two-year run in Arlington. He worked to a 3.63 ERA last season. He carried a 3.67 mark into today’s start, although the Jays tagged him for seven runs tonight. Eovaldi has fanned more than 24% of opposing hitters while keeping the ball on the ground at a near-49% clip. A consistently excellent strike-thrower, he’s walking fewer than 6% of batters faced.

Eovaldi still looks like a quality #3 arm, one whom teams could comfortably tab for a playoff start. He pitched very well during the Rangers’ World Series run, working to a 2.95 ERA at more than six innings per start over six appearances. Eovaldi’s fastball checks in at nearly 96 MPH on average. He remains one of the harder-throwing starters in the majors even as he approaches his 35th birthday.

The primary knock against Eovaldi throughout his career has been his injury history. While he has ten seasons with 100+ innings pitched, he has had a few significant arm issues. Eovaldi has undergone Tommy John surgery twice. He missed time with back and shoulder problems in 2022 with the Red Sox — perhaps the biggest reason he was limited to two guaranteed years as a free agent.

Eovaldi has gone on the injured list in both seasons with the Rangers. He missed over a month with a forearm strain last year and lost a couple weeks to a groin strain this past May. The forearm injury could be a concern for some teams because of the previous Tommy John surgeries, but he has looked no worse for wear in the year-plus since that IL placement.

Eovaldi has received a qualifying offer in his career. That makes him ineligible for another QO, so Texas could not tie him to draft compensation if he decides to test the market. He would probably at least secure another two-year deal that pays him something close to $20MM on an annual basis. That’d presumably be preferable to the one-year player option, although Eovaldi is a Houston native who might prefer to stay in his home state. The option also provides insurance in case he suffers an injury in either of his final two starts of the season.

The rotation looks like an offseason priority for newly-extended baseball operations president Chris Young. Jacob deGrom is back at the top of the staff. They’ll hope for a healthy season from Tyler Mahle. Kumar Rocker debuted last week and could battle for a rotation spot. That’s also true of Rocker’s college teammate Jack Leiter, though he’s been hit hard in his first seven MLB appearances. Jon Gray should return from a season-ending foot injury in the fourth year of his free agent deal. Cody Bradford has pitched well in a swing role.

That’s a high-variance group. deGrom, Mahle and Rocker recently returned from Tommy John recoveries. Leiter, Rocker and Bradford (to a lesser extent) are light on big league experience. Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney and José Ureña are headed to free agency. Eovaldi still seems likely to join them. Texas could try to bring Eovaldi back on another multi-year deal and should look for at least one outside acquisition even if they retain him.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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