Welcome to the first mailbag of 2025! In this one we get into what the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mariners might do, the future of first basemen Spencer Torkelson and Pete Alonso, outfield options for the Astros, various Alex Bregman destinations, and much more.
John asks:
Braves fan here wondering if the Braves will re-sign AJ Minter?
Bill asks:
With market choices dwindling whom might Atlanta pursue in the pitcher/outfield categories? Or will they rely on young pitching hopes and current outfield options?
Phillip asks:
What do you see the Atlanta Braves doing? We need another outfielder, starting pitcher, and 2 relief pitchers. Are we going to be thrifty or are we going for quality?
Bruce asks:
Can you predict what the usually unpredictable Alex Anthopolous will acquire to play LF and SS and SP down the 2025 Atlanta Braves?
In attempting to guess how the rest of the Braves' offseason will go, it may be helpful to first project their payroll. President of baseball operations and GM Alex Anthopoulos said in October payroll would be going up.
The Braves' actions thus far this offseason do not match those of a team planning to increase payroll: declining Travis d'Arnaud's option, dumping Jorge Soler, moving money around with the Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer extensions (though not in a way that helps their CBT payroll), non-tendering Ramon Laureano, and most importantly, failing to sign any notable free agents. It's also true that Anthopoulos' October comments came before the Braves learned more information about the timelines of Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Joe Jimenez. I could see how that would affect payroll allocation, but not why it would affect the total payroll.
The Braves appear to have a $220MM CBT payroll at present, and on December 11th David O'Brien of The Athletic wrote that the Braves "don’t seem inclined to go too far above that $241 million [luxury tax] threshold." That's after running a $276MM CBT payroll in 2024. Perhaps in his October "payroll is going up" comments, Anthopoulos was threading a needle where the team's 26-man Opening Day actual payroll will increase, but their CBT payroll will not. Last year's Opening Day actual payroll was $222MM and the team is at $197MM at present. It's also likely the team would like to keep powder dry for midseason additions.
Given O'Brien's comment, we probably shouldn't project much more than $25MM in additional AAV to be added this offseason. The second tax threshold of $261MM could be a ceiling on the CBT payroll. So how might Anthopoulos improve the team with many major names now off the board?
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