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Braves Claim Victor Arano, Kyle Garlick

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The Braves have claimed right-hander Victor Arano and outfielder Kyle Garlick off waivers, the Phillies announced.  Philadelphia recently designated both players for assignment.  The claims fill the final two open spots on Atlanta’s 40-man roster.

A member of the Phillies organization since August 2014, Arano has a 2.65 ERA, 26.3 K%, and 18.8 K-BB% over 74 2/3 career innings in the big leagues, all from 2017-19 (and mostly in 2018, when Arano tossed 59 1/3 frames).  Unfortunately, elbow surgery sidelined Arano for much of 2019 and kept him from making any MLB appearances in 2020.  If healthy, Arano could certainly be an interesting weapon for the Atlanta bullpen, as he has shown an ability to miss a lot of bats both in the majors and in the minors.

The right-handed hitting Garlick also gives the Braves another option as they figure out their outfield situation.  With no sign that a reunion with Marcell Ozuna is forthcoming, the Braves have Ronald Acuna as a lock for one starting position in either center field or right field, and then a combination of Ender Inciarte, top prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters, and bench candidates Abraham Almonte and Johan Camargo all in the mix for outfield duty.  Garlick could conceivably share platoon duty with Inciarte (a left-handed hitter) or switch-hitters Almonte and Camargo, or Atlanta could just stash him in the minors as depth.

Garlick (who turns 29 later this week) has appeared in each of the last two MLB seasons, amassing a .214/.276/.414 slash line over 76 total plate appearances with the Dodgers and Phillies.  Originally a 28th-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2015 draft, Garlick hit a very impressive .288/.345/.536 over 1846 PA in the Los Angeles farm system, though with the caveat that he was mostly playing against younger competition and that the Pacific Coast League is very hitter-friendly.

George Springer Notes: Astros, Mets, Braves

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Outfielder George Springer, arguably the premier position player on this winter’s open market, came off the free-agent board when he agreed to a six-year, $150MM contract with the Blue Jays earlier this week. Unsurprisingly, though, other teams made a serious push to sign the three-time All-Star. The Astros were not one of those clubs, however, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggests they made no real attempt to re-sign Springer after he turned down their $18.9MM qualifying offer.

The Mets, who were considered one of the front-runners to ink Springer during his stay on the market, offered a six-year deal worth $120MM to $125MM, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Springer would have made for yet another significant addition under new owner Steve Cohen, who has already overseen the acquisitions of Francisco Lindor, James McCann, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor May in the past couple months.

Whether the Mets will continue shopping for a starting-caliber outfielder after falling short in the Springer derby remains to be seen, as they already have Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Dominic Smith as their top three right now. But Marcell Ozuna, who received interest from the Mets earlier this winter, remains available in free agency. The Mets have also discussed third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant with the Cubs, while Jackie Bradley Jr. leads the remaining class of free-agent center fielders in the wake of the Springer deal.

One of the Mets’ NL East rivals – Atlanta – also vied for Springer, who would have replaced Ozuna in its outfield. The Braves were “in on Springer until the end,” David O’Brien of The Athletic writes. Ultimately, though, the Braves were unwilling to go to the lengths the Jays did to sign Springer. Indeed, it would have been out of the norm for general manager Alex Anthopoulos to make that type of commitment to a free agent, even though the Braves could use another established star in their outfield to team with Ronald Acuna Jr.

Latest On J.T. Realmuto’s Market

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As potential suitors for J.T. Realmuto continue to dwindle, Fansided’s Robert Murray tweets that the Braves are “circling” on the free-agent catcher, adding that some clubs on the west coast also remain interested in the former All-Star.

It’s a surprise to see the Braves linked to Realmuto for a number of reasons. Atlanta already has veteran Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM in 2021, and he’s coming off a .273/.336/.465 showing across the past two seasons. Beyond that, Realmuto has been seeking the exact type of long-term contract that Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos has eschewed since taking the reins in Atlanta.

The Braves waited out Dallas Keuchel’s market to get a one-year deal and opted not to come close to the Twins’ four-year offer when endeavoring to retain Josh Donaldson. They inked Cole Hamels on a one-year deal last winter rather than pursue a multi-year pact with Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently wrote recently that Marcell Ozuna is “highly unlikely” to return to Atlanta. Ozuna, of course, is seeking a lucrative multi-year deal himself.

This type of contract simply hasn’t been in the Braves’ playbook under the current front-office regime. Granted, it only takes one exception to change the narrative, but with recent reports that the Phillies have offered in the vicinity of $110MM over five years, a Realmuto-to-Braves deal would need to break the Braves’ short-term mold in rather dramatic fashion. It’s possible, too, that the Braves are “circling” — a decidedly nebulous term — to see if Realmuto opts to follow in Yasmani Grandal’s footsteps and take a one-year pact due to his dissatisfaction with multi-year offers. A high-priced one- or even two-year deal would absolutely be in the Braves’ wheelhouse, based on recent history. That’s also tough to envision when the Phillies have put forth a nine-figure offer, however.

Realmuto has been vocal in the past about his desire to advance the market for future catchers. It’s a large part of the reason he went to an arbitration hearing with the Phillies last year, arguing for a $12.4MM salary against the team’s $10MM filing number. The Phillies won that hearing, but Realmuto said afterward that he was “fighting for a cause and fighting for the rest of the catchers,” adding that he “takes pride” in fighting for future generations of players at his position. Those comments don’t make him sound like a catcher who is intent on taking much of a discount in any setting.

All of that is to say that if Realmuto were to take a short-term pact, the deal would likely have to represent a decisive new record for a catcher’s annual value. That sum currently belongs to Joe Mauer, who was paid an average of $23MM per year over his eight-year deal with the Twins. However, the Phillies are reportedly already offering close to that sum on a five-year term, which makes it tough to see Realmuto stepping back on a shorter-term arrangement. That’s especially true when the current offer from the Phils would set a catcher record in and of itself — the first ever nine-figure contract for a free-agent catcher. (Mauer and Buster Posey signed their nine-figure deals as extensions while still under club control.)

It also has to be noted that word of interest from the Braves only serves to benefit Realmuto’s camp if they’re yet looking to push the Phillies’ offer a bit further north. A five-year deal at $110MM would come in just shy of an AAV record for catchers, and topping that $23MM annual mark is surely something that’s still important to Realmuto.

The vague nature of the reporting in this instance does not indicate that Atlanta is comfortable doling out an uncharacteristic nine-figure pact, and there’d be a seismic difference between hoping Realmuto falls into their laps on a short-term, Grandal-esque contract and making a genuine run at top-of-the-market prices. Perhaps Anthopoulos and his staff believe Realmuto to be a difference-maker worth budging from their typical hardline stance against such contracts, but there’s no real evidence to support that thinking at this time.

If the Braves ultimately break character and sign Realmuto at a premium, pushing d’Arnaud to an $8MM backup or a trade candidate in the process, they’ll be a better team for it. But history doesn’t support them making an aggressive multi-year play, and it seems like a rather well-timed scenario to be broached as the division-rival Phillies appear to be in an increasingly favorable position to re-sign their star backstop.

Latest On Braves, Marcell Ozuna

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  • More from Olney, who notes that the Braves “appear highly unlikely” to re-sign outfielder Marcell Ozuna. The 30-year-old slugger had an incredible season in Atlanta after signing a one-year deal last offseason. Ozuna is now in line for a much bigger multi-year accord this winter. That doesn’t fit the general approach of Braves’ GM Alex Anthopolous, who has tended to shy away from longer-term deals since taking over baseball operations. Just last winter, the Braves watched Josh Donaldson, who had starred on a similar pillow contract in 2019, walk for a four-year deal with the Twins. MLBTR projects a $72MM accord over that same length for Ozuna.

MLBTR Poll: Let’s Be The Braves’ Arbitration Panel

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The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.

Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.

Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.

In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.

O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.

Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Braves Seeking Left Fielder

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  • The Braves are looking for a left fielder, per MLB Insider Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Presumably, Atlanta would target a short-term investment rather than making a splashier move like, say, bringing back Marcell Ozuna. Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Cristian Pache make for an elite defensive alignment, and prospect Drew Waters is on his way. Nick Markakis could certainly find his way back if he wants to keep playing. If their aim is to to find a right-handed bat to spell Inciarte against southpaws, Adam Duvall could return, or Kevin Pillar, Albert Almora Jr. and Cameron Maybin are free agents with experience playing for a contender. If the Braves are looking for a more regular producer in order to give Pache and/or Waters more development time, Joc Pederson could fill the power void left by Ozuna’s departure. Speculatively speaking, Ryan Braun would make for an interesting fit if he decides to play outside Milwaukee. Not to be forgotten, Austin Riley has played some outfield during his short Major League career, but Atlanta expects Riley to lay claim to the hot corner in 2021. That would change if they were to add DJ LeMahieu, but despite their reported interest, such a union seems like a long shot.

Latest On DJ LeMahieu’s Market

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The stalemate between the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu isn’t showing any signs of ending, and it may have opened the door for other teams to re-enter the hunt.  According to Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown, LeMahieu has “asked his representatives to re-engage with teams that have previously shown the most interest…and to reconnect with teams that reached out early in the free agent period.”

This group includes at least six teams — the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox.  The Astros and (maybe?) the Nationals were also linked to LeMahieu earlier this winter, so it’s fair to assume some new calls may have been placed to those teams.  Of the six clubs cited, it was already known that the Mets, Dodgers, and Jays were in on LeMahieu, with Toronto mentioned as the batting champion’s most fervent suitor apart from the Yankees.

This is the first time, however, that the Red Sox, Braves, and Cardinals have been linked to LeMahieu, opening up an intriguing new set of possibilities.  All three teams were among those who had the early interest in LeMahieu, however, so it could be that those were simply due diligence check-ins, or plans may have changed as the winter market has developed.  That said, due to some feeling earlier in the offseason that a LeMahieu/Yankees reunion was inevitable, more teams may now make a more serious push if they have a sense that LeMahieu may actually sign elsewhere.

Not much seems to have changed with LeMahieu’s asking price, as Brown reports that LeMahieu is looking for “at least” five years and $110MM.  Previous reports indicated a similar price from LeMahieu’s camp, with the Yankees’ top offer apparently falling short by more than $25MM.  The Cardinals may not be willing to spend much this offseason.  The Braves could be in somewhat of the same situation after already investing in Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, though Atlanta has a lot of salary coming off the books following the 2021 season.  Boston has the spending capacity but the team wasn’t thought to be shopping at the top of the free agent market this winter, in part because signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like LeMahieu would cost a draft pick.

The acquisition of Francisco Lindor might also take the Mets out of the LeMahieu hunt, and longtime Dodger Justin Turner has been cited as Los Angeles’ top choice to handle third base (even if Turner’s ask for a four-year contract is very likely to go unfulfilled).  It isn’t known what Toronto’s top offer to LeMahieu is or was, but since the Jays are reportedly willing to give a similar contract to George Springer, they could pivot by putting that offer on the table for LeMahieu.

Several virtual meetings are planned between LeMahieu and various teams over the coming week, Brown writes, so we could have more clarity on the All-Star’s situation soon.  At this juncture, it’s hard to say where LeMahieu might end up, or if perhaps other mystery teams could emerge.  Of course, LeMahieu could also wind up with the Yankees after all, if New York feels it needs to increase its offer in response to any additional pressure from one or more clubs.

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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After breaking down how last season’s five lowest-scoring offenses look now, we’ll do the same here with the five rotations that allowed the most earned runs in 2020…

Tigers (6.37 ERA/5.53 FIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.91 BB/9):

  • The Tigers received solid production from Spencer Turnbull and … nobody else last season. Matt Boyd, who was a coveted trade chip before the campaign, imploded; Michael Fulmer had a rough year in his return from Tommy John surgery; and high-end prospects Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize couldn’t keep runs off the board. Turnbull, Boyd and Fulmer are all coming back in 2021, while Skubal, Mize and fellow prospect Matt Manning should factor into the mix. Detroit also has a newcomer in former Marlins starter Jose Urena, whom the Tigers signed to a $3.25MM guarantee late last month. Urena was effective in Miami from 2017-18, but his numbers have gone off the rails since then.

Angels (5.52 ERA/4.78 FIP, 8.68 K/9, 3.52 BB/9):

  • Over two months into the offseason, Angels fans are surely awaiting the acquisition of a high-profile starter. The team hasn’t done anything to improve its rotation thus far, though the group isn’t devoid of potential as it is. Dylan Bundy enjoyed a long-awaited breakout in 2020 – his first year as an Angel – Andrew Heaney stayed healthy and performed pretty well, and Griffin Canning had a promising sophomore season. Those three are locks for starting jobs in 2021, but the rest is up in the air (will Shohei Ohtani finally regain his health as a pitcher? Will Jaime Barria stick in the rotation after a bounce-back season?). With that in mind, odds are the Angels will add a starter before next season, whether that means splurging on Trevor Bauer or shopping at lower tiers of the market.

Braves (5.51 ERA/4.98 FIP, 8.01 K/9, 4.04 BB/9):

  • The Braves’ status as a bottom-feeding rotation is deceiving because of the injury adversity they faced. They barely got anything from Mike Soroka, a 2019 ace who tore his Achilles early in the season, while Cole Hamels pitched once (on Sept. 16) because of nagging arm issues. Soroka will be back next season to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson as one of the best young trios in the game next season. Hamels is now on the open market and unlikely to return, but the Braves replaced him with veteran standout Charlie Morton in free agency. They also grabbed Drew Smyly on the market. While Smyly has gone through an up-and-down career, in part because of injuries, he was terrific as a Giant in 2020. The Braves are banking on Smyly continuing to roll in their uniform.

Nationals (5.38 ERA/5.17 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):

  • As was the case with the division-rival Braves, the Nationals’ rotation couldn’t get through 2020 without key injuries. There wasn’t a more notable victim than Stephen Strasburg, who threw all of five innings after winning 2019 World Series MVP honors and re-signing with the Nats on a seven-year, $245MM contract. The good news is that Strasburg is on track for next season after undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. If healthy, Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin should return to being an elite trio. There are some issues after those three, however. Joe Ross will come back after opting out last season, but he posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each year from 2017-19. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth were tattooed in similar fashion in 2020. General manager Mike Rizzo has spoken this winter of adding a No. 4/5 type of starter, which seems like a necessity.

Mets (5.37 ERA/4.21 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):

  • The Mets were yet another NL East team whose rotation battled health-related misfortune in 2020. Noah Syndergaard didn’t take the mound after undergoing TJ surgery in March, while the team also got zero contributions from Marcus Stroman because of an opt out. Things are looking better for 2021, though, with Syndergaard set to return at some point (perhaps in June) and Stroman coming back after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer. Stroman, all-world ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson are in line for starting spots at the opening of next season. The same could potentially be said of Steven Matz, whom the Mets elected against non-tendering, though he was terrible in 2020. Thanks in part to Matz’s struggles last year, it seems likely the Mets will pick up at least one established starter in the coming months. Bauer seems like a possibility when considering new owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, but even someone like Jake Odorizzi or Masahiro Tanaka could go a long way in bolstering New York’s rotation.

Phil Niekro Passes Away

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Braves legend Phil Niekro has passed away at age 81 after a battle with cancer.  Both the Braves and Major League Baseball released statements commemorating the Hall-of-Famer…

The Braves:

We are heartbroken on the passing of our treasured friend, Phil Niekro.  Knucksie was woven into the Braves fabric, first in Milwaukee and then in Atlanta. Phil baffled batters on the field and later was always the first to join in our community activities. It was during those community and fan activities where he would communicate with fans as if they were long lost friends.

He was a constant presence over the years, in our clubhouse, our alumni activities and throughout Braves Country and we will forever be grateful for having him be such an important part of our organization.

Our thoughts and prayers are with his wife Nancy, sons Philip, John and Michael and his two grandchildren Chase and Emma.

From MLB commissioner Rob Manfred:

But even more than his signature pitch and trademark durability, Phil will be remembered as one of our game’s most genial people.  He always represented his sport extraordinarily well, and he will be deeply missed.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my condolences to Phil’s family, friends and the many fans he earned throughout his life in our National Pastime.

Niekro’s incredible career stretched across 24 seasons, with the right-hander finally retiring at age 48 after one final game in an Atlanta uniform.  Only Cy Young, Pud Galvin, and Walter Johnson threw more Major League innings than Niekro’s 5404 1/3 frames, as Niekro used his legendary knuckleball to become the biggest workhorse in modern baseball history.  Niekro had a whopping 19 seasons of 200+ innings pitched, with four of those seasons topping the 300-inning threshold.  Amazingly, Niekro amassed this record despite only posting 140 MLB innings and one start prior to his 28th birthday.

Beyond just durability, of course, Niekro posted some masterful results on the mound.  He won 318 games and posted a 3.35 ERA for his career, keeping batters off-balance despite not being known as a strikeout pitcher (even in an era when hitters were expected to make contact and big strikeout totals were rare for batters).  That didn’t stop Niekro from recording 3342 strikeouts, the 11th-highest total in baseball history.

As you might expect, Niekro’s name can be found near the top of many all-time statistical categories.  His resume also included five All-Star appearances and five Gold Gloves, plus a runner-up finish to Tom Seaver in the voting for the 1969 NL Cy Young Award.  Beginning his career when the Braves were still located in Milwaukee, Niekro spent 21 seasons and 740 of his 864 career games with the Braves organization, also pitching with the Yankees, Indians, and Blue Jays from 1984-87.

We at MLBTR extend our condolences to Niekro’s family and many fans around the world.

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