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Ian Anderson To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Oblique Strain

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Braves starter Ian Anderson suffered a left oblique strain while pitching with Triple-A Gwinnett, reports David O’Brien of the Athletic (Twitter link). O’Brien indicates he’ll miss at least a month, while Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets he’s expected to be out four-to-six weeks.

Even if Anderson makes it back within a month, he won’t pitch again in the regular season. There’s exactly three weeks remaining on the schedule, with the season wrapping up on October 5. Anderson could theoretically be available at some time during the playoffs, but it’s hard to envision the Braves carrying him on a series roster at this point. Even if Atlanta advances deep enough in the postseason Anderson’s healthy enough to return, he won’t have much a chance to build back into game shape. High-A Rome is the Braves’ only full-season affiliate that’ll make the playoffs, and they’re already playing postseason games. Their season will wrap up well before Anderson has a chance of getting back on a mound.

It’s not a given the 24-year-old would’ve gotten a playoff opportunity even if he had been fully healthy. Anderson has spent the past month in Triple-A after getting squeezed out of the big league rotation. That came on the heels of an even 5.00 ERA with a career-worst 19.7% strikeout percentage and a lofty 11% walk rate through 22 MLB starts. He’d certainly not have been a part of a playoff rotation, and players like Jake Odorizzi, Mike Soroka, Bryce Elder and perhaps Freddy Tarnok are all multi-inning relief candidates behind the presumptive top four starters: Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright.

In all likelihood, this injury closes the books on a rough season for Anderson. The former 3rd overall pick looked to have cemented himself as a mid-rotation arm in Atlanta through his first two big league campaigns. The changeup specialist carried a career 3.25 ERA into the 2022 season, and he allowed only three runs in 15 innings across four starts during last year’s World Series run. This year’s downturn came as a surprise, but Anderson still averages around 94 MPH on his fastball and actually induced swinging strikes this season at a 12.3% rate that’s narrowly a career best. That offers some hope he can iron things out in 2023 and beyond.

Anderson will continue to count against Atlanta’s 40-man roster while he’s on the minor league injured list. He won’t be paid a big league salary or collect MLB service during that time, although he’s already surpassed the two-year service threshold in 2022. He’s on track to reach arbitration for the first time after next season and is controllable through 2026.

Anthony Varvaro Killed In Car Accident

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Former big league reliever Anthony Varvaro died in a car accident this morning, according to multiple media reports.  The 37-year-old Varvaro became a New York/New Jersey Port Authority police officer after retiring from baseball, and the car accident took place while he was heading for duty at the September 11th memorial service today in downtown New York City.

A Staten Island native, Varvaro’s pro baseball career began when the Mariners selected him in the 12th round of the 2005 draft.  Varvaro made his big league debut with the Mariners in 2010, and then spent the next four seasons pitching with the Braves before tossing 11 innings with the Red Sox in 2015, his final MLB season.

Varvaro had some very solid numbers in the majors, posting a 3.23 ERA over 183 2/3 career innings.  He emerged as a workhorse in Atlanta’s bullpen in 2013-14, with 123 appearances and 128 innings over those two seasons (with an impressive 2.74 ERA).  The Red Sox acquired him during the 2014-15 offseason, though his work in 2015 and a would-be trade to the Cubs were both cut short by flexor tendon surgery.  After pitching with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate in 2016, Varvaro then decided to retire at age 31, and pursue a new career in law enforcement.

A GoFundMe has been established for Varvaro’s family. We at MLB Trade Rumors send our condolences to Varvaro’s family, friends, and colleagues.

Edwin Jackson Announces Retirement

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Former All-Star Edwin Jackson took to Instagram this evening to officially announce his retirement from Major League Baseball. The right-hander pitched parts of 17 seasons in the majors, getting to the highest level every year between 2003-19. Jackson suited up for 14 different MLB teams, setting the all-time record for most uniforms donned.

“19 years ago today I was blessed with an opportunity to tie up my laces and step on the field to make my debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers,” Jackson wrote. “Today I am happily hanging up my cleats and closing a 22-year baseball career.” Jackson went on to thank his wife, parents, sisters, children and the rest of his family before expressing his gratitude to various coaches, trainers and doctors who assisted him. “This game has taught me many life lessons and allowed me to evolve into the person I am today! I will forever have memories that will live within me from the game I love and dedicated my life to. Thank you baseball for an amazing life experience I will never forget,” he concluded.

A sixth-round draftee of the Dodgers out of a Georgia high school in 2001, Jackson emerged as one of the sport’s best pitching prospects not long thereafter. He broke into the big leagues exactly 19 years ago on his 20th birthday, starting three of four appearances down the stretch. He bounced on and off Los Angeles’ active roster for the next couple seasons before being traded to the then-Devil Rays over the 2005-06 offseason.

Jackson worked primarily as a reliever for his first season in Tampa Bay, but he took a full turn of starts by the 2007 campaign. That kicked off a stretch of seven consecutive seasons in which he surpassed 30 starts and 160 innings. Jackson pitched in Tampa Bay through 2008 before being dealt to the Tigers for outfielder Matt Joyce. He tossed a career-best 214 innings the next year, posting a 3.62 ERA. Jackson earned an All-Star nod with a 2.52 mark through that season’s first half.

The next offseason, his nomadic career continued. Detroit flipped Jackson to the Diamondbacks as part of a three-team blockbuster that netted Detroit Max Scherzer and sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. His stint in the desert was rather brief — he’d wind up traded again at that summer’s deadline — but it provided one of the more memorable moments of his career. On June 25, 2010, he tossed a no-hitter against his former team at Tropicana Field. He threw a staggering 149 pitches in the outing, striking out six but issuing eight walks. Then-manager A.J. Hinch stuck with Jackson despite his high pitch count, and he completed one of the more remarkable single-game performances by a player in recent memory.

Not long after, the last-place club dealt Jackson to the White Sox in a trade that landed Arizona Daniel Hudson. Jackson pitched well in 11 starts down the stretch, and he got off to another solid start in 2011. The White Sox fell out of contention the latter season, though, and he was on the move again. The Blue Jays acquired Jackson from the White Sox on the morning of July 27, but his stint in Toronto lasted only a few hours. Toronto promptly flipped him to the Cardinals in a deal that sent Colby Rasmus north of the border.

Jackson played in St. Louis for the second half, pitching to a 3.58 ERA through 12 starts. He made four starts in the postseason, and while his playoff numbers weren’t great, the Cardinals secured the World Series title in a dramatic series win over the Rangers. Fresh off winning a title, Jackson signed with the Nationals during his first trip through free agency. He spent the 2012 campaign in the Nats rotation, helping Washington to their first playoff appearance since moving to D.C.

The next winter, Jackson inked a four-year, $52MM pact with the Cubs. He continued to soak up innings but didn’t post especially strong numbers in Chicago. After two and a half seasons, he was released. That kicked off an even more rapid trip around the league, as Jackson suited up with the Braves, Marlins, Padres, Orioles, Nationals (again), A’s, Blue Jays and Tigers (again) over the next four years. He alternated between the rotation and the bullpen throughout that time, generally serving as a depth option.

While Jackson signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks in 2020, he didn’t make it back to the majors. He did appear on the U.S. Olympic team last summer and expressed a desire to get back to the big leagues, but he didn’t get another opportunity with an affiliated organization.

Altogether, Jackson pitched in 412 major league games. He tossed 1960 innings with a 4.78 ERA, striking out a bit more than 1500 batters and winning 107 games. According to Baseball Reference, Jackson banked upwards of $66MM in earnings and incredibly logged some action for almost half the league. MLBTR congratulates Jackson on his lengthy, accomplished career and wishes him all the best in retirement.

The Braves’ Star Rookie Starter

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With just a month remaining in the 2022 regular season, some of the awards races are coming into view. The National League Rookie of the Year balloting will be a two-man show, with Braves teammates Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II battling one another for the hardware. Neither player entered the season as a favorite, but they’ve pulled away from the field with spectacular performances.

Harris didn’t even reach the majors until a few days before June, but he’s started his career on a .309/.352/.538 tear. That’s elite offensive output, and while it’ll probably be difficult to keep hitting at that level while swinging and missing as often as he does, there’s far more to his game. Harris has rated as a plus defensive center fielder, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he eventually takes home a Gold Glove Award. He’s also a plus baserunner who has gone 16 of 17 as a base-stealer. The Braves cemented Harris as a key piece of the core by signing him to an eight-year extension last month.

Great as Harris has been, he may be trending towards a runner-up finish in the ROY race. That’s a testament to how dominant his teammate has been on the mound. Unlike Harris, Strider got his feet wet in the big leagues last season. Atlanta called him up in October, and he came out of the bullpen twice during the final week of the regular season. The call-up was seemingly geared towards gauging whether Strider would be a playoff option, but the Braves left him off the postseason roster. After winning the World Series, they’re certainly not quibbling about that decision, but there’s no question he’ll be a major factor in the playoffs this time around.

Strider didn’t open the season in the rotation. Atlanta initially turned to a primary five of Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and Huascar Ynoa, with Strider on hand as a multi-inning relief option. The 23-year-old thrived in that capacity, pitching to a 2.22 ERA while holding opponents to a pitiful .167/.263/.214 line through 24 1/3 frames. It may have been tempting to keep him in that role, particularly since many scouting reports on Strider had suggested a bullpen future may be his best fit.

Through two months, however, the Braves weren’t getting great results from the bulk of the rotation. Fried was excellent, as was Wright. Yet Morton and Anderson had some early-season struggles, and the fifth spot proved a revolving door between Ynoa, Bryce Elder and Tucker Davidson. On May 30, the Braves turned to Strider to make the first start of his big league career. He struggled, allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks. The Braves stuck with him, and he reeled off three solid starts in a row. Strider then took a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Giants on June 21, but he’s been arguably the best pitcher in the game since that point.

Strider twirled six scoreless innings against the Dodgers his next time out, kicking off an ongoing stretch of 10 of 12 starts in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs. Over that time, Strider has a 2.15 ERA and surrendered only a .176/.233/.258 slash line. He’s struck out nearly 40% of batters faced while only walking 6.1% of opponents. The righty has eclipsed double digit punchouts on four occasions, including a masterful 16-strikeout gem against the Rockies last week.

While Strider’s late entrance to the rotation has kept him from accruing as many innings as the game’s top arms, he’s been among the league’s best hurlers on a rate basis. No other starting pitcher with 90+ innings has a strikeout rate anywhere near his 37.8% mark since he moved to the rotation. The next closest pitcher, Shohei Ohtani, checks at 33%. Strider’s among the top 20 starters in ERA (2.79), has allowed the fourth-lowest opponents’ on-base percentage (.249) and the lowest slugging percentage allowed (.276). Only Shane McClanahan, Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and Ohtani are generating swinging strikes at a better clip than Strider, who’s gotten a whiff on 15.2% of his total pitches out of the rotation.

Strider’s approach is a bit atypical for a starting pitcher, a big reason evaluators questioned whether he could stick in a rotation. He leans extremely heavily on his fastball, turning to the four-seam more than two-thirds of the time. Strider pairs that with a slider and barely turns to a third offering, rarely deploying his changeup. It can be tough to navigate big league lineups with only two pitches, but the fastball-slider pairing has been dominant. Strider is averaging an absurd 98.2 MPH on his heater, while hitters have come up empty more than half the time they’ve swung at his mid-80’s slider. The shallower repertoire has neither inhibited Strider from handling left-handed opponents (who have a .200/.256/.284 line against him this season), nor from maintaining his effectiveness multiple times through a lineup.

It’s probably too soon to call Strider a true ace. A 2020 draftee, he’s still only in his second full professional season. This year’s 114 2/3 innings are already a personal-high, and it remains to be seen whether he can maintain this kind of form through a 162-game schedule and into the postseason. On an inning-for-inning basis, though, Strider has performed right alongside the game’s best. He’s already been far better than the Braves could’ve reasonably anticipated, and he has certainly secured a spot in the playoff rotation alongside Fried and at least one of Morton or Wright.

The addition of Harris and Strider to a core that is coming off a championship gives them one of the league’s more complete rosters. Atlanta is playing at a 101-win pace, and they’ve pulled within half a game of the much improved Mets for first place in a top-heavy NL East. Which team will secure the division title and accompanying first-round bye will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the season’s final couple weeks. Strider will play a big role in those efforts and in whatever postseason run the Braves can mount to follow.

Note: All stats through play Tuesday.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Huascar Ynoa Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Braves announced that Huascar Ynoa underwent Tommy John surgery this afternoon. The hard-throwing righty had been on optional assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett, but he hadn’t pitched in over two weeks.

Originally a member of the Twins organization, Ynoa was dealt to Atlanta as a rookie-ball prospect in 2017. He reached the majors a couple seasons thereafter, debuting late in 2019. After a couple seasons bouncing on and off the active roster, Ynoa looked to have broken out as a rotation building block early last year. He earned a spot in the starting five and posted a 3.02 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk numbers through his first 44 2/3 innings.

Ynoa’s season was knocked off track in mid-May, however. Following a rough outing, he punched the dugout in frustration. Ynoa fractured a bone in his throwing hand and lost two months to injury. He returned in August but didn’t pitch especially well down the stretch, posting a 5.05 ERA over nine outings. He was relegated to bullpen work in the postseason, and he was diagnosed with inflammation in his throwing shoulder during the NL Championship Series. That ended his campaign, and Ynoa came into 2022 in competition for a rotation spot.

While he secured a spot in the starting five out of the gate, Ynoa was hit hard in his first two outings. Atlanta optioned him back to Gwinnett at that point, and he’s spent most of the year there. Aside from a brief major league recall in mid-August — during which time he spent three days on the active roster and didn’t make an appearance — he’s played the rest of the season with the Stripers. The 24-year-old has started 17 of his 18 outings, pitching to a 5.68 ERA through 77 2/3 innings. Ynoa has punched out an above-average 25.8% of batters faced and induced grounders at a solid 48.1% clip, but he’s also been far too prone to both home runs and walks.

The emergence of Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright and the deadline acquisition of Jake Odorizzi combined to squeeze Ynoa out of the MLB plans. He’d still been on hand as a depth option with a reasonable amount of upside, but the Braves will now have to navigate a hit to that depth. Given the timing of the procedure, it’s likely Ynoa will miss all of next season as well. Tommy John surgery recoveries typically take upwards of 14 months, making it unreasonable to expect he’ll be able to factor in at any point before 2024.

Unfortunately for Ynoa, that he suffered the injury while in Gwinnett means he won’t immediately land on the major league injured list. Players on the minor league IL aren’t paid at an MLB rate, nor do they collect major league service time. It’s possible the Braves eventually recall Ynoa and place him on the major league 60-day IL, which would remove him from the 40-man roster. That’d involve paying him at the MLB rate, but the hurler will be paid a Triple-A salary unless that happens.

The 2022 campaign was Ynoa’s final minor league option year. That means the Braves will either need to carry him on the MLB injured list to start next season or make him available to other teams via trade or release waivers.

Braves Sign Jake Marisnick To Minor League Deal

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The Braves signed outfielder Jake Marisnick to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The deal is listed as taking place on August 30, which is significant as 11:59pm ET on August 31 was the postseason eligibility cutoff. Those within an organization but not on the 40-man at the start of September can still be added to the postseason roster to replace a player on the injured list via petition to the commissioner’s office.

Marisnick, 31, is in his 10th MLB season, having seen action with the Marlins, Astros, Mets, Cubs, Padres and Pirates. He’s never been a huge threat at the plate, as evidenced by his career slash line of .234/.272/.390. That amounts to a wRC+ of 81, or 19% below league average. However, he has always provided speed and defense, stealing 79 bases and 76 Defensive Runs Saved over his time in the big leagues.

This year, he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers in March but jumped ship to the Pirates as the season was beginning. About five weeks into the season, he required thumb surgery which kept him out of action for about two months. He was released in early August after appearing in just 31 total games for the Bucs on the year. He hit about at his career rate in that time but accrued six Outs Above Average.

The Braves have young superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. on the roster, though he’s been spending a lot of time at designated hitter due to lingering soreness in his return from tearing his ACL last year. That leaves the club with an outfield mix of Michael Harris II, Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, Marcell Ozuna and Guillermo Heredia. Outside of Harris, none of that group is having a very good season. Should the club decide they want to bring up a glove-first option into the mix, they’ll have Marisnick on hand in the minors.

Every Team’s Initial September Call-Ups

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Each season as the calendar flips to September, we see a flurry of transactions around Major League Baseball. Active roster sizes jump from 26 to 28 for the season’s final month, with teams permitted to bring up no more than one additional pitcher. We’ve already covered a host of transactions with 40-man roster implications throughout the day at MLBTR. Here’s a full round-up of teams’ initial September roster moves.

American League West

Houston Astros:

Los Angeles Angels:

Oakland Athletics

Seattle Mariners

  • Reinstated LHP Matthew Boyd from 60-day injured list
  • Recalled OF Taylor Trammell from Triple-A Tacoma
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Texas Rangers

  • Selected contract of RHP Jesus Tinoco from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Recalled OF Nick Solak from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Corresponding move: Transferred RHP Josh Sborz to 60-day injured list

American League Central

Chicago White Sox

  • Recalled OF Adam Haseley from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Recalled RHP Matt Foster from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Corresponding move: None required

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

  • Selected contract of RHP Daniel Mengden from Triple-A Omaha
  • Recalled OF Nate Eaton from Triple-A Omaha
  • Corresponding move: None required

Minnesota Twins

  • Added LHP Austin Davis (previously claimed off waivers from Red Sox) to active roster
  • Selected contract of OF Billy Hamilton from Triple-A St. Paul
  • Corresponding move: Transferred OF Trevor Larnach to 60-day injured list

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

  • Selected contract of 1B Jesus Aguilar from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Recalled LHP DL Hall from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Corresponding move: Designated INF Richie Martin for assignment

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

  • Recalled SS Oswald Peraza from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
  • Activated INF Marwin Gonzalez from paternity list
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Reinstated RHP Matt Wisler from the 15-day injured list
  • Recalled INF Jonathan Aranda from Triple-A Durham
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Recalled RHP Casey Lawrence from Triple-A Buffalo
  • Added OF Bradley Zimmer (claimed off waivers from Phillies this week) to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

  • Recalled INF Alan Trejo from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Recalled RHP Chad Smith from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Reinstated LHP Clayton Kershaw from 15-day injured list
  • Recalled 3B Miguel Vargas from Triple-A Oklahoma City
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Diego Padres

  • Recalled INF Matt Beaty from Triple-A El Paso
  • Recalled RHP Reiss Knehr from Triple-A El Paso
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Francisco Giants

National League Central

Chicago Cubs

  • Selected contract of RHP Jeremiah Estrada from Triple-A Iowa
  • Recalled INF David Bote from Triple-A Iowa
  • Corresponding move: Transferred Wade Miley from 15-day injured list to 60-day injured list

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Recalled RHP Luis Perdomo from Triple-A Nashville
  • Recalled OF Esteury Ruiz from Triple-A Nashville
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Recalled RHP Johan Oviedo from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Recalled OF Calvin Mitchell from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Selected contract of OF Ben DeLuzio from Triple-A Memphis
  • Recalled RHP James Naile from Triple-A Memphis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League East

Atlanta Braves

  • Reinstated IF Orlando Arcia from 10-day injured list
  • Added recently-claimed RHP Jesse Chavez to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Miami Marlins*

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Selected contract of RHP Vinny Nittoli from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Recalled C Donny Sands from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Washington Nationals

  • Recalled C Tres Barrera from Triple-A Rochester
  • Recalled RHP Mason Thompson from Triple-A Rochester
  • Corresponding moves: None required

*Marlins moves reported by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link)

Braves Notes: Soroka, O’Day, Albies, Acuna

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The Braves announced this afternoon that righty Mike Soroka has been activated from the 60-day injured list. He’s been optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, Atlanta transferred reliever Darren O’Day from the 15-day to the 60-day IL.

Soroka hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since August 2020. He ruptured his right Achilles tendon while trying to get off the mound to cover first base, a devastating injury that has kicked off multiple years of rehab. His efforts to return last season were cut short in June when Soroka suffered another Achilles tear while walking to the team’s clubhouse. He underwent a second surgery and has been trying to work his way back. He suffered an unrelated setback this July when he took a comebacker off the knee while throwing live batting practice, leading to another shutdown.

Six weeks later, Soroka made it back to a professional mound. He kicked off a rehab assignment with High-A Rome on August 16, and he’s since made two appearances with Gwinnett. He worked 4 2/3 innings and threw 75 pitches during his outing last Saturday. That’ll technically be his final rehab start now that he’s back on the 40-man roster, but the club will give him a bit more time with the Stripers to find his form. With five weeks left in the regular season, it seems likely we’ll see Soroka back on the Truist Park mound this month. How he pitches could well determine whether the club carries him on their postseason roster.

Despite having missed two seasons, Soroka just recently turned 25 years old. Before the Achilles tears, he looked like one of the better young arms in the sport. The former first-rounder pitched to a 2.68 ERA with a very strong 51.2% ground-ball rate over 174 2/3 innings in 2019, his age-21 season. He and the team agreed to a $2.8MM salary to avoid arbitration during Spring Training. He’ll be in line for a similar amount this winter and is controllable through 2024.

O’Day has been out since the All-Star Break after straining his left calf. Signed to a minor league deal over the offseason, the veteran submariner made the Opening Day roster. O’Day has been an excellent, if unconventional, late-game reliever for much of the past decade. The 2022 season had been more pedestrian even before the injury, however. Through 21 2/3 innings, the 39-year-old owns a 4.15 ERA with a strong 27.7% strikeout percentage but a career-high 10.6% walk rate.

Today’s IL transfer shouldn’t have much of an effect on O’Day, who still looks likely to factor into the bullpen mix for manager Brian Snitker late in the season. The 60-day minimal stint backdates to his original placement on July 12, so he’ll be eligible to return to the big league club next weekend. O’Day has been on a rehab assignment with Gwinnett, working seven innings over as many appearances.

Soroka and O’Day aren’t the only injured players who are planning to make it back from long-term absences this month. Ozzie Albies has been out of action since fracturing his left foot on June 13, but he’s closing in on a return. Albies began a rehab assignment in Gwinnett tonight, taking four at-bats while serving as the designated hitter. It was his first game action since the injury, and it opens the 20-day window allotted to position players for rehab stints. Barring a setback, he should be back in Atlanta by the middle of September.

Since Albies went down, the Braves have used a revolving door at second base. Orlando Arcia, Phil Gosselin and Ehire Adrianza have each gotten some work, but the job has finally fallen on rookie Vaughn Grissom. A highly-regarded prospect, Grissom is off to a .312/.354/.468 start through his first 21 MLB games. Those numbers have been propped up by a .344 batting average on balls in play, but the 21-year-old has also already connected on three home runs and has only gone down on strikes 13 times (15.9% of his plate appearances).

How the Braves will divvy up playing time when everyone’s healthy remains to be seen. That’s an enviable problem to have, of course, with an infield of Matt Olson, Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley arguably the best in baseball. If the Braves want to keep Grissom’s bat in the lineup, the cleanest path to playing time could be at designated hitter, although that’d present its own complications.

The Braves have rotated hot-hitting backup catcher William Contreras through the DH spot, and they’ve occasionally used those at-bats to get Ronald Acuña Jr. off his feet. Acuña, who tore the ACL in his right knee last July, told reporters last night the surgically-repaired joint feels “terrible” (via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Acuña has remained in the lineup and maintained that he’ll play through the pain for the rest of the season, but the Braves may want to continue easing his workload on defense before postseason play gets underway.

Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

Braves Claim Jesse Chavez Off Waivers From Angels

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The Braves announced that they have claimed right-hander Jesse Chavez off waivers from the Angels.

Chavez, 39, is no stranger to switching jerseys, having played for the Pirates, Braves, Royals, Blue Jays, Athletics, Dodgers, Angels, Rangers and Cubs in his career, having returned to many of those clubs for a second or even third stint. 2022 has been no exception, as the veteran hurler began the season with the Cubs, but has since been traded twice, going to the Braves and then the Angels. He was released by the Halos yesterday and now returns to Atlanta for the second time this season.

Between those three clubs, he’s thrown 54 2/3 innings with a 3.62 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate. His best stretch of the year was definitely with Atlanta, though, as he has a 2.11 ERA as a Brave while registering marks of 6.35 with the Cubs and 7.59 with the Angels.

The club already had a vacancy on their 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move won’t be necessary. Placing him on the activer roster should be smooth as well, since rosters expand from 26 to 28 on September 1. Players claimed off waivers generally have three days to report to their new club, meaning Chavez can just join the club on Thursday and take one of the fresh spots.

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