The Braves dodged a bullet yesterday when righty Jesse Chavez was hit in the leg by a comebacker and helped off the field, as initial x-rays did not reveal a fracture. The team originally believed Chavez would be able to avoid an IL stint entirely, that didn’t prove to be the case. Atlanta placed Chavez on the 15-day injured list, per a club announcement, and recalled right-hander Ben Heller from Triple-A Gwinnett in his place. Losing Chavez even just for two weeks or so will sting. The 39-year-old has been outstanding for Atlanta, pitching to a 1.55 ERA with a career-best 30.8% strikeout rate against a 7.7% walk rate. Chavez has already picked up a save and a dozen holds for the Braves, and he was on an 11-inning scoreless streak prior to his injury.
Braves Rumors
Braves, Jesus Aguilar Agree To Minor League Deal
The Braves signed free-agent first baseman Jesus Aguilar to a minor league contract, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He was released by the A’s earlier this month.
Aguilar, who’ll turn 33 later this month, hit just .221/.281/.385 with five homers in 115 plate appearances for Oakland after signing a one-year, $3MM deal in the offseason. Oakland’s hope had been that Aguilar could recapture his 2017-21 form — .262/.338/.476, 93 homers in 1972 trips to the plate — and emerge as a summer trade candidate. That didn’t happen in the season’s first two months, however, and Oakland has turned first base over to impressive Rule 5 pick Ryan Noda on a full-time basis now.
During that 2017-21 peak, Aguilar was an All-Star (2017) and consistent power threat, topping out with a career-high 35 dingers back in 2018. At his best, Aguilar walked between 10-11% of his plate appearances and kept his strikeouts at or south of the league’s average rate. In 2023, he walked at a sub-par 7% clip and fanned in 27.5% of his plate appearances while delivering career-worst marks in average exit velocity (86.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (29.3%).
For the Braves, there’s little harm in bringing aboard a slugger with some track record on a no-risk deal. Atlanta is set at first base with Matt Olson and has gotten better play from designated hitter Marcell Ozuna of late, so there’s no pressing need on the big league roster. Aguilar can play some first base in Triple-A Gwinnett for the time being, and should the Braves incur an injury or simply want some additional right-handed thump off the bench, he could be an option in the event that he’s playing well.
Braves Acquire Ben Heller, Designate Nick Solak
The Braves have acquired right-hander Ben Heller from the Rays in exchange for international bonus pool space and optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett, per a team announcement. Outfielder Nick Solak was designated for assignment in a corresponding roster move.
Heller, 31, was just designated for assignment by the Rays last week. Signed to a minor league deal in the winter, he had his contract selected in late May but was optioned back to the minors before getting into a game. In 18 games at the Triple-A level for the year, he’s logged 27 1/3 innings with a 3.95 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 49.4% ground ball rate.
He has a bit of major league experience, getting into 31 games with the Yankees from 2016 to 2020 with a 2.59 ERA in that time. Unfortunately, he then spent much of 2021 and 2022 injured before landing with the Rays this year. Tampa frequently cycles pitchers on and off their roster throughout the season but it seems that Heller drew enough interest from clubs around the league that Tampa will get a little bit of extra money to spend on international amateurs.
For Atlanta, they’ve dealt with some challenges to their pitching staff, especially with starters Max Fried and Kyle Wright on the injured list and facing significant absences. They also have relievers Dylan Lee and Michael Tonkin on the IL, alongside Tyler Matzek who underwent Tommy John surgery last year. They will add Heller to their Triple-A club and have a bit of extra depth on hand for when they need a fresh arm. Heller is in his final option year and will be out of options next year. He has over three years of service time and will be eligible for arbitration this winter.
In addition to giving up a bit of bonus pool money, the club is also risking losing Solak. The 28-year-old once seemed like a potential building block for the Rangers when he debuted in 2019 and hit .293/.393/.491 in his first 33 games. He had always hit well in the minors and there was little reason to doubt he would continue to do so. Unfortunately, he slashed just .246/.317/.354 from 2020 to 2022. He was also pushed off second base both due to his subpar work there and the club signing Marcus Semien. He’s since spent more time in left field, which put more pressure on his bat to provide value.
In November, the club finally decided to cut bait and flipped Solak to the Reds for cash. He lasted on the Reds’ roster through the winter but was designated for assignment at the end of Spring Training. He then went to the Mariners in another cash deal but got the DFA treatment again just 10 days later. A couple of waiver claims then took him to the White Sox and Braves in the middle of April. Solak hit .272/.364/.444 for a 106 wRC+ in 173 plate appearances for Gwinnett. He struck out in just 15.6% of his plate appearances while walking at a 9.8% rate.
Now Solak has been given the DFA treatment yet again and might soon find himself in a sixth organization in less than a year. Despite the struggles at the major league level, he continues to hit in the minors. He’s in his final option year so some club could put in a claim and stash him in the minors. He’s been limited to left field this year but perhaps some club would give him another chance at the keystone. If he were to clear waivers, he would stick with the Braves since he has less than three years of service time and does not have a previous outright.
Braves Outright Lucas Luetge
10:45am: As expected, Luetge has indeed opted to remain with the Braves and accept his outright assignment, writes Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
9:35am: The Braves announced Tuesday that left-handed reliever Lucas Luetge went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Gwinnett. Atlanta also announced this morning that right-hander Roddery Munoz will be recalled from Triple-A, setting the stage for the 23-year-old reliever’s big league debut. They had an open 40-man spot after optioning righty Michael Soroka yesterday.
The 36-year-old Luetge, who’d been designated for assignment over the weekend, has the right to reject that assignment in favor of free agency by virtue of both Major League service time (four-plus years) and a prior outright assignment in his career. However, because he doesn’t yet have five years of MLB service, electing free agency would mean forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $1.55MM salary. As such, it seems quite likely he’ll accept and remain in the Braves organization without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.
Luetge joined the Braves over the winter in a trade that sent minor league infielder Caleb Durbin and minor league reliever Indigo Diaz back to the Yankees. Luetge had been somewhat of a surprise DFA by the Yankees, but the decision to move on from the lefty in exchange for a pair of mid-level minor leaguers — both of whom have played well thus far in 2023 — looks defensible given Luetge’s struggles in 2023.
Thus far, Luetge has appeared in nine games with the Braves but been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walks through just 9 2/3 frames. After striking out a quarter of his opponents against a 5.8% walk rate in two years with the Yankees, the southpaw has fanned a diminished 22.2% of his opponents and issued walks to 13.3% of them. It’s a small sample, but Luetge has also seen his swinging-strike rate plummet from 12.7% to just 8.1%, while the velocity on his cutter has dipped to a career-low 87.1 mph.
Luetge also spent more than a month on the injured list with inflammation in his left biceps, so it’s possible there’s a physical reason for this year’s struggles. Whatever the root of the issue, he’ll now quite likely look to get back on track with the Braves’ Gwinnett affiliate and earn another look in the big leagues.
As for Munoz, he’s moved to the bullpen in 2023 after spending the majority of his prior professional career as a starter. The Braves signed the 6’2″ righty out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018, and he’s pitched his way into becoming one of the more promising arms in a relatively thin Braves system. Baseball America and MLB.com ranked him 22nd and 21st among Atlanta farmhands, respectively, both touting a potentially plus slider and mid-90s heater. Munoz’s changeup is regarded as a below-average pitch, however, and his command has clear room for refinement.
So far in 2023, Munoz has split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 4.94 ERA in 27 1/3 frames. He’s walked nearly as many of his 126 opponents (20) as he’s struck out (24). He’s avoided home runs and kept the ball on the ground at a strong 46% clip, but it’s been a tough season on the whole. That said, he’s allowed just one run and fanned 14 over his past 11 innings, albeit with seven walks and a pair of hit batters in that time continuing to shine a light on his sub-par command.
Braves Claim Luke Williams From Dodgers
The Braves announced that they have claimed infielder Luke Williams off waivers from the Dodgers and optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett. There had been no public indication that Williams lost his roster spot with the Dodgers but they evidently tried and failed to pass him through waivers in recent days. Atlanta transferred left-hander Max Fried to the 60-day injured list in order to open a 40-man roster spot for Williams. Additionally, righty Michael Soroka was also optioned to Gwinnett.
Williams, 26, was signed by the Dodgers to a minor league deal in the offseason. He was selected to their roster in mid-April but then optioned to Triple-A 10 days later. He got just 10 big league plate appearances in four games and hit .100/.100/.100 in those. He’s spent most of the season in Triple-A Oklahoma City, hitting .268/.364/.452 there for a wRC+ of 93. That indicates he’s been 7% below league average at the plate but he’s stolen 11 bases while playing shortstop, third base and left field this year. Previous seasons have seen him line up at every position except catcher, giving him plenty of defensive versatility.
That type of production generally aligns with his previous seasons. He now has 141 major league games on his ledger, spending time with the Phillies in 2021 and then the Giants and Marlins last year. Combined with his brief stint with the Dodgers this year, he has a career batting line of .234/.291/.306 and a wRC+ of 67. But he’s created value elsewhere by swiping 14 bags in 20 tries and bouncing all around the diamond to fill in as needed.
Atlanta was able to easily add Williams as a depth piece since they essentially had a roster spot to burn. Fried has been on the injured list since May 6 with a forearm strain and the plan was to shut him down completely until he healed before building him back up again. It’s now been about a month since that IL placement and he’s yet to get close to a return. As of two days ago, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the lefty was throwing but still hadn’t progressed to mound work. He will still need to get to that stage before likely throwing a few bullpens, maybe some live batting practice as well, before embarking on a rehab assignment for a few weeks to build up properly.
Given the time he’s still set to miss, it was inevitable that he’d get moved to the 60-day IL once the club wanted to use that roster spot on someone else. He will be officially eligible to return after 60 days from his initial IL placement, which was in early May. That means he could technically be activated in early July but that doesn’t seem especially likely given his current progress.
As for Soroka, he just returned to the big leagues for the first time in almost three years. He twice ruptured his Achilles tendon in the interim and battled some other lesser injuries in that time as well. He was finally healthy enough to get into a decent groove this year, making eight Triple-A starts with a 4.33 ERA. That led to a couple of outings in the big leagues, though he allowed nine earned runs through 9 2/3 innings in those. He wasn’t likely to be a permanent solution in the rotation anyway, as he will likely need to have his innings managed after so much missed time. He’ll now head back to the farm to continue that progression.
Another factor potentially leading to Soroka’s optioning is the emergence of prospect AJ Smith-Shawver. He was recently called up to the majors despite being just 20 years old and having barely 100 innings pitched in the minors thus far. He entered yesterday’s game out of the bullpen and tossed 2 1/3 scoreless innings. He struck out three, walked one and didn’t allow a hit while throwing 39 pitches. It’s possible that he’ll now get a chance to make a start or two, though the club hasn’t made any official announcements in that regard.
Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL East
We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.
Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the NL West and NL Central. Closing out the Senior Circuit:
Atlanta Braves
- Charlie Morton: $20MM team option (no buyout)
The Braves and Morton have had a productive relationship for the past few years. He’s signed a series of successive one-year contracts and served as an effective mid-rotation presence. A home run spike resulted in a 4.34 ERA last season but the Braves remained confident in Morton’s still-strong velocity and strikeout and walk numbers. They’ve gotten exactly what they’ve expected from the 39-year-old. He has a 3.59 ERA with a solid 24.5% strikeout rate and is still averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball. If Morton maintains this form for a full season and wants to continue playing, it stands to reason Atlanta would have interest in bringing him back.
- Eddie Rosario: $9MM team option (no buyout)
Rosario re-signed on a two-year contract after his 2021 postseason heroics helped Atlanta to a title. He’s always been a streaky performer, however, and the past two seasons haven’t been effective. Rosario hit just .212/.259/.328 in 80 games last year. There was some hope a corrective eye surgery could enable a bounceback but he’s only been slightly better in 2023. Rosario carries a .239/.269/.405 line in 171 trips to the plate. The Braves could pursue left field upgrades via trade this summer and are likely to cut Rosario loose at the end of the season.
- Travis d’Arnaud: $8MM team option (no buyout)
d’Arnaud has been a quality catcher for Atlanta for the past few seasons. Last year’s .268/.319/.472 showing didn’t stop the Braves from a blockbuster acquisition of Sean Murphy, who is playing at a down-ballot MVP pace through two months. That pushed d’Arnaud into a backup/designated hitter role for which he’s arguably overqualified.
A concussion has limited d’Arnaud to 17 games thus far. He’s hitting .297/.318/.406 over 66 trips to the plate. An $8MM price point is solid value if the veteran continues to perform at his recent levels. Even with Murphy entrenched as Atlanta’s franchise backstop, the Braves were comfortable keeping d’Arnaud around as a highly-priced #2 option. They could do so again in 2024 or exercise the option and look to trade him this winter, as the Brewers did with second baseman Kolten Wong last offseason.
- Collin McHugh: $6MM team option ($1MM buyout)
McHugh inked a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was brilliant in year one, throwing 69 1/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate. He hasn’t come close to that form through this season’s first couple months. McHugh’s 3.54 ERA through 20 1/3 frames is respectable, but he’s punched out a meager 11.6% of opponents against a personal-worst 10.5% walk rate. The option price isn’t exorbitant and McHugh could yet pitch his way into it being exercised. He’ll need to miss more bats, though.
- Kirby Yates: $5.75MM team option ($1.25MM buyout)
It’s a somewhat similar story with Yates. He signed a buy-low free agent deal in the middle of a Tommy John rehab during the 2021-22 offseason. Yates made a brief return late last season but hasn’t gotten an extended stretch of action until 2023. He’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings and has an above-average 29.1% strikeout rate.
The righty’s control hasn’t come back yet, however. He’s walked 17.4% of opposing hitters and is relying on a .214 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA at 3.26. Whether he can dial in the strike-throwing as he gets more reps probably determines if the Braves keep him around on a net $4.5MM decision.
Miami Marlins
- Johnny Cueto: $10.5MM team option ($2.5MM buyout)
Cueto signed an $8.5MM guarantee with Miami on the heels of a bounceback showing with the White Sox. It was an odd fit on a Marlins club with ample rotation depth and it hasn’t yet panned out. The 37-year-old got through just one inning in his season debut before suffering a biceps injury. He subsequently sprained his left ankle while on a minor league rehab stint and is on the 60-day injured list. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relayed on Tuesday that he’s up to 40 pitches in a bullpen session. A return probably isn’t too far off, but Cueto hasn’t made an impact thus far.
- Matt Barnes: $8MM team option ($2.25MM buyout)
Miami acquired Barnes from the Red Sox in a change-of-scenery swap for Richard Bleier at the end of January. He’s off to a fine but not overwhelming start in his new environs. Over 21 innings, the righty reliever has a 3.43 ERA with near-average strikeout and walk numbers. His average fastball velocity is at a career-low 93.3 MPH, though, and he’s only getting swinging strikes at an 8% clip. Barnes looks more like a competent middle reliever than an All-Star closer at this stage of his career. The $5.75MM gap between the option value and the buyout price will probably prove a little too much for the Marlins.
New York Mets
- Mark Canha: $11.5MM team option ($2MM buyout)
Canha had a productive first season in Queens after signing a two-year free agent deal. He hit .266/.367/.403 over 542 plate appearances last year. He’s been off to a slower start in 2023, posting a .242/.324/.386 line with four homers — a league average performance by measure of wRC+. Canha picked things up in May after a tough April and still holds an everyday corner outfield role, although he’s increasingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup.
The $9.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout isn’t a huge price to pay for a solid everyday outfielder. That’s especially true for the Mets. This one remains to be determined based on Canha’s summer performance.
- Eduardo Escobar: $9MM team option ($500K buyout)
Escobar was another two-year signee just prior to the lockout. He was coming off a 28-homer showing in 2021 and has some defensive flexibility. Escobar has hit at a roughly league average level as a Met, showing his typical blend of above-average power with low walk totals. That includes a .244/.289/.433 showing over 98 plate appearances this year.
Brett Baty has taken over the primary third base job, pushing Escobar into a depth role off the bench. He’s a solid utility option and by all accounts a beloved clubhouse presence but the net $8.5MM call is likely pricey for a player in that kind of role.
- Brooks Raley: $6.5MM team option ($1.25MM buyout)
Acquired from the Rays over the offseason, Raley has been a solid situational bullpen arm in Queens. He owns a 2.95 ERA over 18 1/3 innings with better than average strikeout and walk numbers (25.6% and 7.7%, respectively). Raley doesn’t throw especially hard but he misses bats at a league average clip. He’s been hit around by left-handed hitters in a small sample this year but kept them to a .155/.200/.282 line in 76 plate appearances in 2022. The $4.25MM call is a reasonable price point for an effective middle innings arm. If Raley keeps up this pace, there’s a decent chance the Mets bring him back.
Note: Víctor Robles and Jon Berti each signed arbitration contracts that contained 2024 club options. They’d remain eligible for arbitration next season even if the options are declined and have accordingly been excluded from this list.
MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans
Episode 9 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- The National League Wild Card race (1:50)
- Will the lack of sellers change how the trade deadline looks? (3:00)
- The returns of Michael Soroka and Tyler Glasnow (4:55)
- Recently-cut veterans like Aaron Hicks, Eric Hosmer, Hunter Dozier and Jesus Aguilar (11:10) (Note: podcast was recorded prior to Hicks signing with the Orioles)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- Will the Giants impact the National League West race? (13:20)
- What do the Padres do with Juan Soto if they fall out of the race? (16:20)
- What will the Twins do before the trade deadline? (18:20)
- What can the Angels do with their rotation? (22:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Mets are turning things around, and how serious are the Mariners, Marlins and Diamondbacks? – listen here
- The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here
- Willson Contreras, the Rays’ success, what’s happening with the Astros – listen here
Braves Select AJ Smith-Shawver, Designate Lucas Luetge
The Braves announced that they have selected the contract of pitching prospect AJ Smith-Shawver and designated left-hander Lucas Luetge for assignment in a corresponding move.
Atlanta has shown in recent years that it the most aggressive club in the league when it comes to promoting prospects to the majors and this continues that trend. Smith-Shawver is only 20 years old and was just drafted in 2021, getting selected in the seventh round. He made his professional debut with four Complex League appearances that year and then jumped onto Baseball America’s list of the top 30 prospect in the organization, getting the #18 spot going into 2022.
He would get a lengthier exposure in 2022, making 17 starts in Single-A, posting a 5.11 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. While that earned run figure wasn’t especially impressive, there was some bad luck in there. His .338 batting average on balls in play and 59.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of normal, leading to a 3.53 FIP that was much kinder. He jumped to #1 on BA’s list of top prospects in the system, as they highlighted his four-seam fastball, which averaged 95 mph and had good movement. They also praised his slider and mentioned a work-in-progress changeup.
This year, he began the year in High-A but the club has shown little hesitation about bumping him up the ladder. He made just three starts at that level before getting bumped to Double-A for two and then Triple-A for two more. In those seven starts, he has a combined 1.09 ERA over 33 innings, striking out 35.2% of batters while walking 9.4%. He’s getting good luck this time around, with his BABIP down to .257 on the year and his strand rate up to 91.2%. However, his 2.43 FIP still points to excellent work even when taking that into account.
That performance this year has pushed up his prospect stock. Though he wasn’t really considered a top 100 guy coming into the year, he’s now up to #98 at Baseball America and JJ Cooper of BA tweets that he will likely be moving up even higher in their next update. He didn’t open the year in the top 100 at FanGraphs either but it now up to #86 there. Now he’ll get to make his big league debut at a very young age and with a very quick blast through the minors.
As mentioned, this is becoming something of a playbook for the organization. Last year, they promoted prospects like Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom, both of whom were in their age-21 seasons. Going further back, players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Soroka all got to the show in the respective age-20 campaigns. Austin Riley and Spencer Strider each got to debut in their age-22 seasons. Now Smith-Shawver will be the latest to be rocketed up to the top level.
Although he is a starter, Smith-Shawver will be used out of the bullpen initially, reports David O’Brien of The Athletic. Though the club has one of the better records in the league at 32-22, the bullpen is an area on the roster that looks a little shaky. The club’s relievers have a collective 4.13 ERA on the year, which places them 17th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Smith-Shawver will try to give them a boost back there as he gets acquainted with the majors.
It’s possible he could join the rotation down the road, as there’s some uncertainty there as well. With Max Fried and Kyle Wright both on the injured list and not expected to return anytime soon, that leaves Atlanta with Strider, Soroka, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder, and Jared Shuster. Soroka has hardly pitched in the past three years due to various injuries, including twice tearing his Achilles, and it’s unknown how much of a workload he can be expected to take on this year. Shuster, meanwhile, is a rookie with a 5.33 ERA so far this year. There may come a time when Smith-Shawver appears to be a viable option, but he may not have too much leash himself after throwing just 68 2/3 innings last year.
As for Luetge, he spent the past couple of seasons as an effective lefty reliever for the Yankees. He came over to Atlanta in an offseason deal but has struggled mightily so far this year. He has a 10.24 ERA on the season, only making nine appearances around a trip to the injured list due to biceps inflammation. His .406 BABIP and 57.3% strand rate have pushed that up but his 6.08 FIP and 4.53 SIERA still aren’t ideal.
The club will now have one week to trade Luetge or pass him through waivers. Despite his rough stretch here in 2023, he’ll likely garner interest based on his previous work. He tossed 129 2/3 innings with the Yanks over 2021 and 2022 with a combined 2.71 ERA, striking out 25% of opponents while walking only 5.8%. He’s making a salary of $1.55MM this year and could be retained for another year via arbitration. If he clears waivers, he could reject an outright assignment by virtue of having a previous career outright. But doing so and electing free agency would mean forfeiting his remaining salary, since he is shy of the five-year service mark.
Michael Soroka To Start Monday For Braves
9:34PM: Atlanta manager Brian Snitker confirmed to reporters that Soroka will indeed start Monday’s game. The Braves are optioning Rodriguez to Triple-A to create space for Soroka on the active roster.
1:23PM: Michael Soroka hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since August, 2020, but an almost three year wait to return looks set to be over Monday with a series of transactions suggesting he’ll be called up to start tomorrow against the Athletics.
The Braves scratched Soroka from his start at Triple-A today, and as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman draws attention to, the Braves decision to option Dylan Dodd and replace him with Dereck Rodriguez adds further weight to the idea that Soroka will be the one called upon. And if any further evidence was needed, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos was on SirusXM radio today and said Soroka is the “next guy up the next time we need a starter,” before adding that the next time is “tomorrow.”
Soroka, the 28th pick back in 2015, was a quality young starter for the Braves before injuries derailed things. Between 2018-20, he made 37 starts of 2.86 ERA ball, the bulk of which came during the 2019 season when he finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting.
Since the 2020 season, it’s been a wretched run for Soroka. A ruptured achilles tendon set him up for a year long recovery, and just as he was nearing a return to action that achilles blew out again and left Soroka facing another lengthy rehab process. After recovering from that he saw some time at Triple-A towards the back end of the 2022 season but never made it to the big leagues, as he was shut down with shoulder fatigue. He entered spring training competing for a spot in Atlanta’s rotation but a hamstring strain put him behind and he was optioned to the minor leagues to start the season.
He’s made eight starts at Triple-A this season, working to a 4.33 ERA and averaging about 4 1/3 innings per start. It’ll certainly be a much anticipated return to a big league mound for Soroka when he does pitch tomorrow.
Bryce Elder Has Been Bailing Out The Braves’ Rotation
In the umpteenth example of “you can never have enough pitching,” the Braves have been through a whirlwind of rotation concerns over the last three months. Heading into Spring Training, Atlanta seemingly had one of the better top four (Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Kyle Wright) alignments in the sport, with a plethora of interesting arms battling for the fifth starter’s role. Former rotation stalwart Ian Anderson was trying to bounce back from a rough 2022 season, Michael Soroka was continuing his comeback from a pair of Achilles tears, and Bryce Elder was looking to build on a quality 2022 rookie season.
As it turned out, the Braves ended up going with none of these fifth starter options, as rookies Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster ended up being the top candidates. Anderson and Elder both struggled in Spring Training and the Braves opted to take it a bit slower with Soroka’s recovery, opening the door for Shuster and Dodd.
However, injuries have shaken things up considerably since Opening Day. Wright began the season on the 15-day injured list due to shoulder soreness, but after returning and making five starts, Wright was again sidelined with shoulder issues and now won’t be available until the first week of July (at the earliest) due to his placement on the 60-day IL. Fried has also made only five starts due to an early-season hamstring strain and now his current IL stint due to a forearm strain, and is also tentatively expected to be out of action until early July. Further down the depth chart, Anderson will miss the entire 2023 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, while Kolby Allard has yet to pitch at all due to a Grade 2 oblique strain suffered in Spring Training.
Between these injury absences and the fact that Shuster and Dodd haven’t pitched well, the Braves suddenly went from having a borderline surplus of pitching depth to a possible shortage. This puts even more pressure on the remaining arms, and Strider is looking like a Cy Young Award candidate while the veteran Morton has been his typically solid self. However, the surprise of the group has been Elder, as through 10 starts and 58 1/3 innings in 2023, Elder’s minuscule 2.01 ERA leads the National League.
It isn’t like Elder has exactly come out of nowhere, as it wasn’t much beyond a year ago that Elder made his MLB debut in more or less in this same role as an early-season injury fill-in. Between those starts, other spot duty, and then a larger role later in the year as a replacement for Anderson and Jake Odorizzi, Elder ended up posting a 3.17 ERA over 54 innings in 2022.
Of the four players taken by Atlanta in the pandemic-shortened five-round 2020 draft, three (Elder, Strider, Shuster) have remarkably already reached the big leagues. Elder was the club’s fifth round pick, and his first pro season saw him go from high-A to Triple-A ball in 2021. Due to his quick path to the majors, Elder still has only 248 2/3 minor league frames under his belt, and he has a 3.55 ERA in the minors due in large part to ground-ball rates that have regularly topped 55%.
That has been Elder’s same recipe in the majors, as he has a 56.5% grounder rate in 2023. A .296 BABIP doesn’t indicate any real amount of batted-ball luck, though Elder has been fortunate that his grounder-heavy arsenal hasn’t been hampered by the below-average defensive marks that Atlanta’s infield regulars have posted over two months of the season.
Elder is neither a hard thrower (89.8mph fastball) or a big strikeout pitcher, with a modest 21.1% strikeout rate over his brief MLB career. Without many strikeouts and a lot of hard contact allowed, Elder’s ability to keep the ball on the ground has been all the more critical, as batters’ hard contact hasn’t translated into much damage. His 6.8% walk rate this season is solidly above average, and a nice improvement from his mediocre 10.1BB% in 2022.
The walk rate is a rare flash of red on an overall uninspiring Statcast card for Elder, which probably indicates that some regression is inevitable. His .295 wOBA is sigifnicantly under his .329 xwOBA, and such fielding-independent metrics as xFIP (3.58) and SIERA (3.77) both project his ERA to be well over his 2.01 mark. Still, an ERA in the 3.58-3.77 range is still pretty good, especially for a pitcher Atlanta ultimately hopes could be a fifth starter once everyone is healthy. Your average fifth starter also doesn’t normally have an elite-level pitch, which is how Elder’s slider has performed to date this season.
Between Elder’s success, Shuster’s improved results since his return from the minors, and Soroka’s impending return to the big leagues, things are looking up for Atlanta’s rotation. With at least over a month to go until Fried and Wright’s returns, it’s still far too early to say that the Braves are out of danger just yet, but missing key hurlers is less of a problem when a promising young arm like Elder steps up with a front-of-the-rotation performance.
