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NL East Notes: Wright, Phillies, Bethancourt

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There has still been “no change” in the status of Mets third baseman David Wright, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. While both team and player had indicated some optimism recently, Wright has still not been cleared to resume baseball activities. As Puma notes, with at least a three week delay between the point of clearance and a return to the big leagues, Wright’s window for a return this year is rather narrow.

Here are a few more quick notes from the NL East:

  • Soon-to-be Phillies president Andy MacPhail ought to make it his first order of business to find a modern baseball mind to join him in Philadelphia, argues David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. As the piece puts it, the Phils have ended up in their current state not because they’ve been unable to identify talented players, but rather due to a “blind spot [in] the macro-valuation of that talent, within the context of both sheer market appraisal and the impact of opportunity cost on the organization.” For MacPhail to succeed, says Murphy, he’ll need to find a top subordinate who can get a handle on these concepts — particularly given that Philadelphia’s advantages in total spending capacity appear likely to be reduced in importance over time.
  • While the Braves seemingly continue to take many positive steps, the stunted development of backstop Christian Bethancourt has been a significant disappointment, Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Schultz indicates that there was more at play in the decision to send Bethancourt down than his anemic .508 OPS, citing “weaknesses in defense and handling a pitching staff” and hinting that the 23-year-old may have maturity and/or commitment issues. Bethancourt has hit well since taking up residence at Triple-A, but we’ve heard recently that Atlanta is looking outside the organization for young talent behind the dish.

2016 Vesting Options Midseason Update

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Several notable players could see their 2016 statuses change depending on whether or not they unlock vesting options in their current contracts.  As we enter the All-Star break, let’s check in on the progress each of these players are making towards those getting those options to vest.  All stats are current heading into today’s action…

  • Chase Utley: The veteran second baseman has a $15MM vesting option for 2016 that becomes guaranteed if he makes 500 plate appearances.  (If he doesn’t, it becomes a team option worth between $5MM-$11MM depending on how much time Utley spends on the DL, with a $2MM buyout.)  Utley, of course, is on the DL right now recovering from an ankle injury and will be out until late July or early August.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has openly stated that Cesar Hernandez has earned the everyday second base job, leaving Utley’s playing time in question for the remainder of the season.  Utley is suffering through by far the worst season of his 13-year career with only a .179/.257/.275 slash line and four homers through his 249 plate appearances.  If Utley isn’t back until early August, he’d be hard-pressed to reach 500 PA even in the increasingly unlikely event that he plays every day.
  • Jonathan Papelbon: This Phillie’s march towards his vesting option is going much more smoothly.  His $13MM option for 2016 vests if he either finishes 55 games this year, or finishes 100 games combined between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.  Papelbon finished 52 games last year and has 29 finishes this season, so collecting those last 19 finishes over roughly two and a half months shouldn’t be difficult for the closer if he stays healthy.  There’s a chance Papelbon could ask for his option to be guaranteed to facilitate a trade, yet he sounds so eager to get out of Philadelphia and pitch for a contender that he may not bother and instead bet on himself to finish those 19 games.
  • David Ortiz: Big Papi has 340 plate appearances, making him a virtual lock to reach the 425 PA he’ll need (plus passing an offseason physical) for his 2016 option to vest.  Ortiz will earn at least $11MM in 2016, plus more depending on how many PA past the 425-mark he ends up recording this season.
  • Joaquin Benoit: With only seven games finished, Benoit has no shot at the 55 games finished he’s need to turn the Padres’ $8MM club option into a guarantee for 2016.
  • Marlon Byrd: If Byrd has 600 PA this season, or at least 550 PA this season and 1100 PA total between 2014-15, the $8MM club option on his 2016 services will become guaranteed.  A DL stint limited Byrd to 262 PA thus far, so it’ll be difficult for Byrd to reach the 550 PA mark unless he stays healthy and the Reds play him virtually every day.
  • Santiago Casilla: The Giants righty signed a three-year, $15MM deal in the 2012-13 offseason that contained a vesting option. MLBTR has learned that Casilla’s 2016 option will vest at $6.5MM with 55 games finished during the 2015 season. Casilla’s option could have vested at $7.5MM with 100 games finished between the 2014-15 seasons, including 55 in 2015. The option could also have vested at $8.5MM with 150 games finished from 2013-15, including 55 finished in 2015.
  • Nori Aoki: The outfielder was one of the league leaders in plate appearances when he fractured his right fibula, so he already has 291 of the 550 PA he needs to turn the Giants’ $5.5MM option for 2016 into a mutual option.  If Aoki returns around July 24 (as Bruce Bochy estimates) and resumes his everyday spot atop San Francisco’s lineup, he stands a good chance of reaching the vesting point.
  • Jonny Gomes: If Gomes receives 325 PA, his $3MM option for 2016 will become guaranteed.  He’s just over halfway there with 166 plate appearances, so this one may come right down to the wire.

We already know that Cliff Lee won’t achieve the innings totals required for his 2016 option to vest, as the Phillies southpaw hasn’t pitched all season and is attempting to recover from a torn left flexor tendon without undergoing surgery.  Brandon League also hasn’t pitched this season and has been released by the Dodgers, so he won’t reach the games-finished total required to allow his 2016 player option to vest.

AL Central Notes: Mondesi, Swisher, Johnson, Tigers

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Raul Mondesi is the Royals’ “most appealing asset for trade discussions,” rival evaluators tell Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star, though “the Royals have little interest in parting with him.”  Mondesi was a consensus top-40 prospect in preseason rankings from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com, with BA listing him 28th before the year began and updating his status to 25th in their recent midseason rankings.  Despite a less-than-stellar showing at Double-A this season, the 19-year-old Mondesi has been discussed as a possible September call-up.  Here’s some more from around the AL Central…

  • Before Nick Swisher went on the DL, the Indians and Braves discussed a trade that would’ve sent Swisher to Atlanta in exchange for Chris Johnson, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  The Braves ended talks since Swisher is owed significantly more than Johnson (approximately $6.25MM to $2.5MM) over the remainder of the 2015 campaign.  Johnson is guaranteed $17.5MM over the 2016-17 seasons while Swisher is owed $15MM in 2016 and he has a $14MM vesting option for 2017.  The deal would’ve been an interesting case of clubs essentially swapping one disappointment for another, as both Swisher and Johnson have posted underwhelming numbers over the last two seasons.
  • Indians scouting director Brad Grant discusses his team’s top three draft picks (Brady Aiken, Triston McKenzie and Juan Hillman) with Fangraphs’ David Laurila, noting how the Tribe wasn’t shy to take a pitcher recovering from Tommy John surgery and two high school arms.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a very impressive history at the trade deadline, as Tony Paul of the Detroit News lists nine deals that benefited the team over Dombrowski’s tenure.

Jason Grilli Out For Season With Achilles Injury

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Braves closer Jason Grilli is done for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Grilli was in the midst of a resurgent season after losing his job as the Pirates closer last summer. In 33.2 innings, he had a 2.67 ERA, 24 saves, 12.03 K/9, and 2.67 BB/9.

With the Braves on the outer fringes of contention, many analysts believed Grilli would be an attractive trade deadline target. The Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, and Tigers are among the contenders rumored to be looking for relief help. The club has dropped four straight contests and is now four games below .500. Atlanta is five games back from the second Wild Card slot.

The Braves are likely to turn to fellow reclamation project Jim Johnson in Grilli’s stead. The former Orioles closer has experienced his own rebound this year with a 2.14 ERA, 6.64 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, and five saves in 42 innings. It’s also possible that Johnson will be shopped at the deadline if the Braves fall further out of contention.

Heyman On Grilli, D-backs, Marlins, Dodgers

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Here are the highlights from Jon Heyman’s massive new Inside Baseball article for CBS Sports. Be sure to check out Heyman on the latest edition of the MLBTR Podcast.

  • The Braves have had “serious talks” about dealing closer Jason Grilli to a contender, Heyman writes, with the Blue Jays and Dodgers among the teams that make the most sense.
  • The Diamondbacks have made infielder Aaron Hill and pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Addison Reed available in trades, and all three players have attracted at least some interest.
  • The Marlins could trade starter Dan Haren for the right return. On paper, the Dodgers would seem to make sense, but that seems unlikely, since the Dodgers treated Haren basically as a throw-in in the Dee Gordon trade in the offseason. The Dodgers would also prefer to find a starter they could use in the playoffs, and Haren likely doesn’t qualify.
  • Dodgers shortstop Jimmy Rollins could become available in a trade as top prospect Corey Seager continues to demonstrate he’s ready for the big leagues.
  • The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Nationals and perhaps other teams had scouts on hand as Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma returned from a lat injury this week. Iwakuma could be a trade candidate, but Heyman notes that giving up four homers to the Tigers probably didn’t exactly increase his value.
  • Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez still seems set on retiring after the season, despite agent Paul Kinzer’s efforts to get him to continue.
  • The Padres have been scouting the Mets lately, leading to speculation that the Mets could be trying to trade for Justin Upton.
  • The Phillies are “not bending” in their demands for Cole Hamels, and his limited no-trade clause remains an obstacle.
  • The Giants have had talks with free agent infielder Everth Cabrera. The Orioles released Cabrera last month. He would provide depth for San Francisco.

Braves To Sign Vin Mazzaro To Minors Deal

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The Braves have inked righty Vin Mazzaro to a minor-league deal, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on Twitter. He’ll head to Triple-A upon joining the Atlanta organization.

Mazzaro, 28, threw 12 frames earlier in the year for the Marlins, allowing five earned runs. Though that was good for a solid 3.75 ERA, he allowed 15 hits and six walks while retiring just six batters via strikeout. After being designated and outrighted by Miami, Mazzaro elected free agency.

Over parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, Mazzaro owns a 4.66 ERA while averaging 5.5 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. His best season came in 2013 with the Pirates, when he put up 73 2/3 frames of 2.81 ERA pitching.

International Notes: July 2 Pools, 2016-17 Market, Cuba

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In case you missed the recent action, be sure to catch up on the major July 2 signings. In the midst of teams agreeing to deals with young talent, they were also swapping quite a bit of bonus spending pools amongst themselves. Matt Eddy of Baseball America provides an exceedingly useful chart showing the aggregate results (as of this morning) of all those exchanges.

  • Now that the dust has largely settled, Baseball America’s Ben Badler breaks down at the clubs that have exceeded their total allotment. By Badler’s reckoning, fully one-third of the league will be restricted from spending more than $300K in next year’s July 2 market, with the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Royals, and Blue Jays joining the five teams that are set to serve the second year of their bans. (Toronto will only face one season of limitations, as their spending stands.) Badler also explains how all the bonus pool deals were put to use by the teams making them.
  • In the same piece, Badler takes a stab at predicting which clubs are planning to blow their budgets next year. He says that the Braves “seem determined” to make a big splash, while the industry chatter is that they could be joined by the Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Padres.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez looks at the challenges to Cuban baseball posed by changing diplomatic tides. The stream of ballplayers heading for major league organizations has obviously hurt Cuba’s domestic league and national team, as Sanchez explains.
  • If you’re still confused by the way the international market works, check out this solid primer from Jonah Keri of Grantland. He uses a Q&A format to help simplify the often baffling series of rules, strategies, and factors weighing on this segment of the baseball transactional world.

Braves To Sign Top Draft Pick Kolby Allard

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6:04pm: Law tweets that Allard will receive a bonus of $3,042,000, about $200K above the recommended pool value for the No. 14 pick. Such a bonus would not cause the Braves to lose a pick next year.

5:40pm: A tweet from California high school lefty and Braves top pick Kolby Allard strongly implies that he and the team have agreed to terms. “Headin’ out to Braves Country in a couple days, let the journey begin!” Allard writes.

Earlier this week, it appeared that Allard might spurn the Braves and instead head to UCLA. Allard was the No. 14 overall pick in the draft, and that pick comes with a pool value of $2,842,400. He would likely have been selected earlier and potentially gotten a bigger bonus, however, were it not for a stress reaction in his back. The Braves have signed all their other picks in the first ten rounds, mostly tracking fairly closely with MLB’s pool values for each pick, so they didn’t save a significant amount against their pool on those picks. MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted earlier this week, however, that since the Braves don’t lose a pick next year unless they go more than 5% beyond their pool, they could give Allard a bonus of up to about $3.47MM.

MLB.com ranked Allard the No. 16 prospect in the draft, praising his fastball (which sits at 92-94 MPH), curveball and low-effort delivery. Baseball America (subscription only) ranked Allard No. 18, while ESPN’s Keith Law rated Allard quite highly at No. 6, writing that, pre-injury, Allard ranked as the best high school pitcher in a weak draft for that player category.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Pettibone, Niese, Miley, Allard

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro said Tuesday that he’s not under any pressure to make to make a trade and won’t be forced into moving a player, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Zolecki notes that Amaro is very likely posturing, but the GM implied that the Phillies could wait until the offseason to move some of their pieces. “We’ve debated here internally about when is the greatest value of some of these players, a number of them,” said Amaro. “When does that player become the most valuable asset? Again, a lot of it depends on who’s going to step up, and who’s going to satisfy some of the things that we’re trying to do in a trade. If someone does, and we feel like it’s the right thing to do, we’ll do it.” Amaro did, however, say that he “would like to do something” on the trade market.

More notes from the NL East to kick off Wednesday morning…

  • Phillies right-hander Jonathan Pettibone may need another surgery, writes the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jake Kaplan. The 24-year-old Pettibone is currently rehabbing from right shoulder surgery, but Amaro told reporters yesterday that he had to shut down a simulated game at the team’s spring complex in Clearwater early. The loss of Pettibone has been a notable one for a Phillies team that is thin on upper-level rotation depth; Pettibone tossed 100 1/3 innings of 4.04 ERA ball in his rookie season back in 2013.
  • Jon Niese has posted stellar results of late, but Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes that a run of six straight starts has done little to restore the trade value of the Mets lefty. “It changes nothing for me,” an NL exec told Martino. “Stuff has gotten lighter every year. The Mets are going to tell everyone it’s as good as ever to keep trade value high.” A second evaluator told Martino, “I would assume GMs wouldn’t overreact to recent performance, and would consider the long term picture along with health and the financial commitment.” Niese’s hot streak — he has a 2.41 ERA over his past six starts — came up in yesterday’s MLBTR Chat, though I offered a similar take; six starts does little to override a history of shoulder issues, and Niese’s secondary stats haven’t been as impressive as his ERA in that time anyhow.
  • Many reports this offseason noted that the Marlins were interested in, if not close to acquiring Wade Miley prior to the Diamondbacks stepping back and eventually accepting another offer from the Red Sox. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier spoke with GM-turned-manager Dan Jennings about his club’s interest in Miley: “We had conversations. The closeness, I don’t want to say, but we definitely had conversations,” said Jennings. One source indicated to Speier that the Marlins thought the deal was nearly complete before Boston swooped in.
  • The Braves continue to work toward a deal with No. 14 overall pick Kolby Allard, assistant GM John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “We’re still going through the process, and we’re very hopeful that we can sign Kolby,” said Coppolella. “You would’ve like to have had him signed earlier, but you understand that it’s a process. I wouldn’t say there’s a holdup on his end or our end, we just haven’t reached the finish line yet.” O’Brien recently reported that there’s a “legit chance” that the Braves won’t ink Allard. He notes that there’s been some speculation that adviser Casey Close of Excel Sports has been seeking a bonus more in line with where Allard would’ve been drafted had a back injury not dropped his stock a bit. As I noted at the time of O’Brien’s initial report, the Braves can offer Allard about $3.462MM (which is $626K over slot) without incurring the loss of a pick.

Trade Market Notes: Papelbon, Indians, Cotts, Maybin

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Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon said today that he would be surprised and disappointed if he is not traded this summer, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. The veteran righty indicated that he’d be willing to waive his no-trade clause to play for any contender — provided, that is, that he’d work in a closing capacity. “I think [the front office] knows where I’m at,” he said. “I’ve always been straightforward that I want to go play for a contender and I’m not going to shy away from it. I feel like that’s my right and my prerogative to have that opportunity and, you know, it’s in their hands. The ball’s in their court. I guess that’s kind of it.” While Papelbon’s preferences will play a significant role in his market, he’s done nothing but increase his trade value through his on-field performance this year. Entering today’s action, the 34-year-old owns a 1.65 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 — and a career-best 50.6% groundball rate — on the season.

  • The Indians are still alive for a post-season berth even though the club has underperformed expectations, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the club will probably stand pat for the most part at the trade deadline. Cleveland is not terribly interested in dealing away Carlos Santana, but could consider moving David Murphy or Ryan Raburn, both of whom have been quite productive this year and can be controlled through fairly reasonable 2016 options. In the event that the Indians decide to add pieces, says Rosenthal, the club could target a pen arm or a bat (at an unidentified position — the left side of the infield seeming most likely).
  • The Twins and Brewers have had some preliminary trade chats, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports (Twitter links). It is not clear precisely what players were under discussion, though Berardino indicates that Milwaukee lefty Neal Cotts could hold some appeal to Minnesota.
  • Some opposing clubs believe the Braves could be interested in selling high on outfielder Cameron Maybin this summer, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Olney had previously indicated on Twitter that Atlanta was not interested in parting with Maybin, who’s been quite a pleasant surprise since coming over as part of the salary swaps in the Craig Kimbrel deal. But he could have significant appeal to teams in need of an outfielder, particularly if the market ends up being largely devoid of bats.
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