Draft Notes: Lewis, McKay, Day 2, Gore, Greene, Wright, Beck
No. 1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis will take his physical with the Twins soon, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. There aren’t expected to be any hangups in negotiations, per Berardino, who notes that the industry expectation is for Lewis to receive a bonus north of Dansby Swanson‘s $6.5MM bonus from the 2015 draft. The top pick in the draft came with a slot value of $7.7MM, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote this week that Lewis could sign for around $1MM less than that sum. That’d put his bonus in the $6.5MM to $6.7MM range, saving the Twins anywhere from $1MM to $1.2MM from the slot value. FanRag’s Jon Heyman pegs the expected value at “just a tick over” $6.7MM. Rays top pick Brendan McKay, meanwhile, is expected to sign for somewhere between $7MM and $7.2MM, according to Berardino. That’d be the largest bonus ever given to a college player under the current draft structure, surpassing Kris Bryant‘s $6.7MM sum.
More notes on the draft…
- The Twins “crushed” Day 2 of the draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis opines. Adding high school right-hander Blayne Enlow, a potential first-round talent that dropped due to a strong commitment to LSU, kicked off a day in which Minnesota selected five players that ranked inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects. Enlow, Callis writes, has the best curveball in the draft as well as a fastball that has touched 94 mph and has room to grow as his projectable frame grows. Callis also lauds the White Sox, Dodgers, Red Sox and Brewers for the talent they secured in rounds three through 10. ESPN’s Keith Law agrees that the Twins did quite well to land Enlow with the No. 76 pick and also gives quite a bit of praise to the Athletics, who landed a first-round talent (in his estimation) with the 81st pick by taking shortstop Nick Allen. Law opines that the undersized Allen, who is listed at 5’8″, would’ve been a top 10 pick if he were three inches taller.
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman provides some insight into the progress being made with the top five picks in the draft. The Padres, according to Heyman, are expected to sign No. 3 overall pick MacKenzie Gore, a high school left-hander, for the full slot value of $6,668,100. Reds top pick Hunter Greene, meanwhile, is expected to sign for a deal “close” to the $7,193,200 slot value of his No. 2 overall selection, per Heyman. (Also of note for Reds fans: Heyman spoke to a rival exec who heaped praise on the Reds’ draft, opining that they “won the draft by far.”) And the Braves look to be going well over slot to sign Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, as Heyman reports that they’re discussing a deal worth close to $7MM, while the No. 5 slot carries a value of $5,707,300. Of course, Wright was long rumored to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, so it stands to reason that he’d come with a fairly sizable price tag.
- Baseball America’s John Manuel reported yesterday that Stanford right-hander Tristan Beck, a potential first-round talent that missed the 2017 season due to a stress fracture in his lower back, will not sign and plans to head back to Stanford (Twitter link). That didn’t stop the Yankees from drafting him late (29th round), though New York would obviously need to give him a massive bonus in order to convince him to forgo a return to college, as a healthy Beck would do quite well in next year’s draft. The Yankees may not have the leftover money even to make a legitimate effort to sign Beck, though he makes for a nice contingency plan if the team unexpectedly finds itself with some extra pool money to play with.
Braves’ Adonis Garcia Out Two Months Following Finger Surgery
The Braves announced on Wednesday that third baseman Adonis Garcia will miss roughly two months following surgery to repair ligament damage in his left ring finger.
The 32-year-old Garcia missed about two weeks due to an Achilles injury in late May and had only just returned from the DL when he suffered the injury to his finger. A long-term injury to Garcia could very well mean that the Braves will take an extended look at prospect Rio Ruiz at the hot corner.
[Related: Atlanta Braves depth chart]
Garcia emerged as the primary third baseman for the Braves late in 2015 and carried that role for much of the 2016 season, hitting a combined .274/.307/.437 with 24 homers through 761 plate appearances. However, he was batting a greatly diminished .247/.282/.351 with four home runs through his first 163 plate appearances of the 2017 season.
Ruiz, 23, entered the 2017 season ranked in the back-third of the Astros’ top 30 prospects, per outlets such as Baseball America and MLB.com. He got off to a reasonably productive start in Triple-A, hitting .262/.305/.447 through 151 plate appearances before being promoted to the Majors when Garcia was sidelined in mid-May. It’s been a struggle for Ruiz in the Majors thus far, as he’s hit just .209/.312/.343 through 77 plate appearances.
Atlanta acquired Ruiz alongside Mike Foltynewicz and Andrew Thurman in the trade that sent Evan Gattis and James Hoyt to the Astros. The former fourth-round pick signed a significantly over-slot deal out of the 2012 draft but has yet to deliver premium results in either the upper minors or in the Majors. Of course, he also only recently turned 23 (on May 22), so there’s still time for him to take his game to a higher level.
Draft Chatter: Lewis, McKay, College Arms, Mock Drafts, A’s
With the MLB Draft just a few hours away, there’s some increasing talk that the Twins are giving serious consideration to high school shortstop Royce Lewis with the No. 1 overall pick. John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted today that Lewis is in consideration and adds that he was told by a Twins official that signability is a factor for the Twins up top. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Twins are down to Lewis and Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay. Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweeted that as of this morning, a Twins front office source told him that no decision has been made.
For those wondering whether the Twins may cut a deal with Lewis to save money and allow greater spending with their Comp Balance pick and second-round selection, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Lewis has a high asking price. (Lewis is reportedly being advised by agent Scott Boras.) Adding to the Lewis/Twins steam is La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, who tweeted that with less than three hours until the Twins are on the clock, the Lewis steam is real. McKay and flamethrowing righty Hunter Greene are both in the mix, Neal adds, and money is a significant factor in the decision. Obviously, the Twins will spend their entire allotted draft budget regardless of who they take, but the amount for which the first overall pick signs will determine how aggressive the Twins can be on pick Nos. 35 and 37 as well as with the rest of their selections.
A bit more on tonight’s draft…
- Fangraphs’ Gerald Schifman takes an excellent look at the usage of some of the top college arms in the draft, examining each pitcher’s average pitches per start, the percentage of starts in excess of 115 pitches and the number of “Pitch Smart” violations. (More details on the Pitch Smart guidelines here.) Notably, projected top picks like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright and Louisville’s Brendan McKay have had their pitch counts and rest between starts managed quite well for the most part. On the other end of the spectrum is UCLA righty Griffin Canning, who has throw 115+ pitches in 53 percent of his outings in the past two seasons. Missouri’s Tanner Houck has also had some troubling usage trends, including high pitch counts and a lack of rest between outings.
- As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
- The Athletics are up with the No. 6 pick in the draft tonight, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle connects them to a number of outfielders and pitchers. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore is on Oakland’s radar, though many project him to go before the A’s are on the clock. High school outfielder Austin Beck is also an Athletics target and recently had a private workout with the A’s. Slusser notes that they’d be thrilled to see Kyle Wright slip to them with the sixth selection, similarly to the manner in which Florida lefty A.J. Puk dropped to Oakland last year after being discussed as a potential 1-1 option. Wright’s teammate, outfielder Jeren Kendall, is also intriguing to the A’s, per Slusser.
Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, Rays, Braves
A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.
- The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
- Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
- It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).
NL East Notes: Garrett, S-Rod, Quinn
It was on this day in 1966 that the Mets drafted catcher Steve Chilcott with the first overall pick of the amateur draft. A catcher out of Antelope Valley High School in Lancaster, California, Chilcott’s seven-year pro career was plagued by injuries and he never reached the big leagues. Brien Taylor is the only other 1-1 selection to retire without ever making it to the Show; three more recent selections (Mark Appel, Brady Aiken and Mickey Moniak) are still in the minors and yet to receive their first taste of MLB action. The Chilcott pick doubly hurt the Mets since they took him ahead of a somewhat prominent player who was picked second overall by the A’s — Mr. October himself, Reggie Jackson.
Here’s the latest from around the NL East…
- Marlins left-handed pitching prospect Braxton Garrett has a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow and may need Tommy John surgery, Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald reports. Garrett, who turns 20 in August, was selected seventh overall by the Fish in the 2016 amateur draft. He was ranked as a consensus top-100 prospect (42nd by ESPN’s Keith Law, 43rd by MLB.com, 71st by Baseball Prospectus, 76th by Baseball America) prior to the season and was considered easily the best minor leaguer within a thin Miami farm system. As Fernandez notes, Garrett would be the second top Marlins pitching prospect (after Tyler Kolek) to require Tommy John surgery within the last 14 months.
- Sean Rodriguez has resumed some baseball activities and is working hard towards a return before the season is over, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Rodriguez and his family were in a horrific car accident in January that injured his two sons, required his wife to undergo wrist surgery amidst several other serious injuries, and seemingly ended Rodriguez’s season before it started due to shoulder surgery. Now, Braves manager Brian Snitker thinks Rodriguez could potentially be back as soon as August. The utilityman signed a two-year, $11MM contract with Atlanta last November and has been a constant presence at in the team’s clubhouse, working out with team trainers and his fellow players.
- Phillies outfield prospect Roman Quinn has a UCL injury in his left elbow, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports (Twitter link). An MRI revealed the issue, and Quinn will visit Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion. While Quinn throws with his right arm, this still could be a significant setback for the 24-year-old, who made his MLB debut last year in 15 games with Philadelphia. Quinn, ranked as the 99th-best prospect in the game by MLB.com prior to the season, was expected to receive a longer look this summer as the Phillies continues their rebuilding process.
Braves To Promote Sean Newcomb This Weekend
The Braves will promote top left-handed pitching prospect Sean Newcomb to start one of Saturday’s doubleheader games, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com (on Twitter). Whether it’s a spot start or a potential audition for a long-term spot in the rotation — Bartolo Colon has struggled all season and was placed on the disabled list yesterday — Newcomb will be making his MLB debut this weekend. The lefty isn’t on Atlanta’s 40-man roster, though the Braves have an open spot for him.
Newcomb, 24 next week, was the Angels’ first-round pick (No. 15 overall) out of the University of Hartford back in 2014 and was traded to the Braves roughly 18 months later as the key piece in the Andrelton Simmons swap. He’s emerged as a consensus Top 100 prospect throughout the game, though his stock took somewhat of a hit with a so-so 2016 campaign in Double-A. After ranking among baseball’s top 25 or so prospects in the eyes of Baseball America and MLB.com, he entered the 2017 campaign ranked 78th and 80th on their respective lists. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him 81st, while Baseball Prospectus remained a bit more bullish and ranked him 44th.
Through his first 57 innings with Triple-A Gwinnett this season, Newcomb has pitched to a strong 2.97 ERA with an outstanding 11.5 K/9 rate. However, he’s also averaged 5.2 walks per nine, continuing a troubling trend of control problems that has followed him throughout his professional career. Newcomb has averaged 4.8 walks per nine since being drafted, and in addition to walking 104 men through 197 2/3 frames across the past two seasons, he’s also hit eight batters and tossed nine wild pitches.
Scouting reports on Newcomb praise his considerable upside but are also wary of his control problems. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com note that he sat 93-97 mph with his fastball last season and has at times touched 99-100 mph in the past — also praising his curveball as a plus offering and writing that his changeup is at least an average pitch. BA agreed with MLB.com’s assessment of Newcomb’s secondary offerings but pegged his fastball a couple miles per hour slower and also suggested that he needs to be more aggressive when he’s ahead in the count. Law, meanwhile, notes that Newcomb has durability but has yet to improve his command to the point where he can be considered likely to reach his ceiling as a No. 2 starter.
Control issues aside, the Braves are counting on Newcomb to serve as a long-term cog in their rotation following the departures of this offseason’s one-year stopgap acquisitions (Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia). Newcomb, along with Lucas Sims, Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Luiz Gohara, gives the Braves an enviable crop of well-regarded pitching prospects that currently sit in Double-A or higher. The hope, it seems, is that three of that bunch can slot into the rotation behind controllable right-handers Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz to give Atlanta a rotation that is both sustainable and affordable for the next several years in the newly opened Sun Trust Park.
If Newcomb is brought to the Majors for good, he’ll accrue 114 days of big league service this season, which should put him just shy of Super Two eligibility moving forward. Assuming he misses out on Super Two status, he’d be arbitration-eligible following the 2020 season and would qualify for free agency following the 2023 campaign. Of course, it’s also certainly possible that this is merely a brief promotion to get his feet wet and that the Braves won’t fully commit a Major League rotation spot to Newcomb until later this season or even 2018.
Braves Place Bartolo Colon On Disabled List
4:45pm: Right-hander Jason Hursh has been recalled from Triple-A to join the bullpen for the time being.
3:41pm: The Braves announced on Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Bartolo Colon on the 10-day disabled list due to a strained left oblique. They’ll announce a corresponding move prior to tonight’s game.
Colon, 44, has had a disastrous start to his first season in Atlanta, pitching to a 7.78 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent ground-ball rate through his first 12 starts/59 innings as a Brave. The veteran righty’s struggles have been particularly acute lately, as he’s yielded at least seven runs in each of his past three outings. He’s also been uncharacteristically home-run prone, and not just at Atlanta’s hitter-friendly new home park; Colon has served up 11 homers those 59 frames — eight of which have come on the road.
Per David O’Brien of the Atlanta-Journal Constitution (Twitter links), manager Brian Snitker said today that Colon has been receiving treatment on his ailing oblique “for awhile,” and the team is hopeful that said issue is at least somewhat to blame for his dreadful slump. For now, the Braves plan to return Colon to the rotation when he’s healthy enough to be activated off the disabled list, O’Brien adds, though that decision doesn’t appear to be set in stone.
As for the corresponding move, that remains to be seen, though MLB.com’s Mark Bowman suggests that both Lucas Sims and Matt Wisler are candidates to start the two games of Atlanta’s Saturday doubleheader. The arrival of Sims, of course, would mark the big league debut for one of the organization’s most anticipated young arms. Bowman adds that Snitker said it’s too soon for Kris Medlen to considered for a start.
In the meantime, however, it seems likely that Atlanta will add either an extra bench piece or an extra reliever, as Jaime Garcia, Mike Foltynewicz, R.A. Dickey and Julio Teheran are lined up to start on Tuesday through Friday. Colon’s slot in the rotation wouldn’t come up until Game 1 of Saturday’s twin bill.
NL East Notes: Colon, Raburn, Mets
Bartolo Colon could lose his spot in the Braves‘ rotation after an ugly start Monday, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Colon, who turned 44 late last month, allowed eight earned runs against the Phillies yesterday and now sports a 6.99 ERA, 5.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 after signing a one-year, $12.5MM deal with Atlanta last offseason. “Haven’t made a decision yet about the next one. We’ll just see,” Braves manager Brian Snitker says of the possibility Colon could miss his next start. Colon says he would be willing to pitch out of the bullpen if necessary, though he has only made nine relief appearances in his 20-year big-league career. Here’s more from the NL East.
- Ryan Raburn returned to the big leagues with the Nationals Monday after an exhausting day of travel, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. Raburn bused from Rochester to Pawtucket with the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs Sunday, then received news that the Nats were promoting him to the Majors. He then took a cab to Boston to catch a flight to join the team in Los Angeles. The Nats acquired Raburn from the White Sox in a minor deal late last month, and a spot opened quickly for him after Jayson Werth injured his foot. “We’re left-handed strong off the bench. So we needed some right-handed production,” says manager Dusty Baker. “He was the perfect guy for us. He kind of fell in our lap.” Raburn struggled with Colorado in 2016, but had a good run in Triple-A this season leading up to his promotion, batting .274/.389/.443 in 131 plate appearances.
- Jay Bruce and Neil Walker are eligible for free agency after the season but have interest in coming back to the Mets, Newsday’s Steven Marcus writes. Walker, though, acknowledges the possibility he could depart after extension talks fell through in the spring. “I’m going to have hopefully a lot of options. We’ll see,” he says. “We obviously almost got something done here in spring training and that didn’t happen. I’m not disappointed in the team, but I’m disappointed kind of in the process of things. I guess that’s business.” Last month, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported Walker and the Mets were unlikely to discuss an extension again before the second baseman became eligible for free agency. Walker is in the midst of a characteristically solid .263/.332/.449 season thus far.
NL East Links: Kemp, Cespedes, Mets, Glover, Baker, Phillies
Matt Kemp has been such a boost to the Braves lineup that Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution doesn’t see the team shopping Kemp as a deadline trade chip. Kemp is 32, is a limited defensive outfielder and has a hefty remaining salary owed through the 2019 season, yet Bradley feels the veteran has made himself a near-indispensable part of the roster. Kemp has been outstanding since joining the Braves last season, including a .345/.381/.608 slash line and 10 homers in 181 PA this year. Bradley also notes that Freddie Freeman‘s production improved with Kemp hitting behind him, which gives Kemp even more value.
Some notes from around the NL East…
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson said there wasn’t any new updates on Yoenis Cespedes‘ DL situation, which leads the New York Post’s Adam Rubin to doubt whether Cespedes will be able to return to action this week. Cespedes’ rehab stint for a hamstring injury was interrupted by some soreness in his long bothersome right quad muscle, and he has yet to resume full running, though he has been jogging. Alderson had previously said that Cespedes could potentially return for DH duty when the Mets are in Texas for an interleague series with the Rangers this week, though that timeline seems tenuous at this point.
- Also from Rubin, he reports that the Mets “aren’t likely” to go after relievers Bobby Parnell and Ernesto Frieri. The two right-handers recently opted out of minor league deals (Parnell with the Royals, Frieri with the Yankees) and are now free agents. Parnell, of course, has a notable history with the Mets, pitching for the club from 2008-15 and serving as the team’s closer in 2013.
- Though rookie Koda Glover has looked excellent as the Nationals‘ closer, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post argues that the Nats should still pursue an experienced ninth-inning man before the trade deadline. Glover is still an unproven commodity with some durability questions and the Nationals’ bullpen is lacking in overall depth, plus Glover could still excel as a setup man down the stretch.
- The Nationals‘ pen is also one of many topics covered in a reader mailbag piece from Jorge Castillo and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, with Castillo feeling that the Nats will indeed obtain a reliever at the deadline. It may not necessarily be a big-name closer, however, given how Glover continues to perform over the next two months.
- From that same mailbag item, Janes writes that there don’t appear to be any extension talks between Dusty Baker and the Nationals, though that could be a function of ownership’s stance against making lengthy commitments to managers. It seems that both sides want to continue the relationship and all signs point towards Baker returning in 2018 (assuming the Nats continue to win, of course), though Janes notes that the team will have to pay market price for Baker given the success the Nationals have enjoyed in his tenure.
- Despite the Phillies‘ struggles, GM Matt Klentak reiterated to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and other media that the team hasn’t altered its approach to promoting its top minor league position players. The likes of J.P. Crawford, Roman Quinn, Rhys Hoskins and others at Triple-A could provide the Phils with a boost or at least give the youngsters some experience at the big league level as part of the team’s overall rebuilding process. The Phillies aren’t going to promote their prospects, however, until there is a clear opportunity for regular playing time and until each player is fully prepared for the majors. “To expose players to the big league level before they’re ready isn’t doing them any favors, nor is it doing the organization any favors. We have to constantly balance that,” Klentak said.
Braves Designate Emilio Bonifacio
The Braves have designated utilityman Emilio Bonifacio for assignment, per a club announcement. The club also optioned infielder Jace Peterson and righty Matt Wisler to Triple-A.
Those moves opened three active roster spots for Atlanta. Southpaw Eric O’Flaherty and third baseman Adonis Garcia will come back from rehab stints to rejoin the club. Also, infielder Johan Camargo was recalled.
[RELATED: Updated Braves Depth Chart]
It’s not surprising to see Atlanta move on from Bonifacio. The versatile 32-year-old has only seen 44 plate appearances in his 38 games of action, all in the outfield, and owns an anemic .132/.150/.211 batting line.
Neither Peterson nor Wisler were performing well, either, though in those cases there are longer-term implications. The 27-year-old Peterson had turned in a solid 2016 campaign, but is slashing just .194/.293/.259 through 123 trips to the plate this season. Wisler, 24, has struggled in the bullpen after spending the bulk of his career as a starter. He has permitted seven earned runs through nine innings with just three strikeouts against three walks.
The Atlanta organization, which sits seven games under .500 entering today’s action, will hope for more from its trio of new roster additions. But none have performed very well in the early going. In fact, their current-season lines are near matches for the scuffling players they’ll replace.
The veteran O’Flaherty owns an ugly 6.59 ERA in 13 2/3 innings, with nine strikeouts and six walks on the ledger. Garcia entered the year as the regular third baseman but is hitting just .237/.278/.348 in 144 plate appearances. And Camargo, a first-year player who isn’t regarded as a future regular, has reached base only twice in his 11 appearances at the dish — though he has hit quite well at Triple-A.