- Atlanta’s a speculative landing spot for closer Craig Kimbrel, who starred with the Braves from 2010-14 and is now the most proven reliever available in free agency. However, barring a drop in Kimbrel’s asking price, it’s “highly unlikely” he’ll rejoin the Braves this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes. MLBTR predicts the 30-year-old Kimbrel will reel in a whopping $70MM guarantee, which could be too much for an Atlanta team that may not be in position to make a big-money splash this offseason, as general manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested last month. Anthopoulos has made it known the Braves are interested in adding a closer this winter, though, so whether it’s Kimbrel or someone else, it appears the club is primed to bring in some late-game help.
Braves Rumors
Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?
Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason. The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old. If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals. In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.
Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year. The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.
There’s also the body of work. Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view. Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs. The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.
There were more stumbles to follow. A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball. Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average. ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.
So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment? Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board? Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier? Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause? Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade? And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?
The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor. Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’ The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block. The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against. The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.
Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.” After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19. The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season. Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018. With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.
The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation. After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors. Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf. The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019. There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.
The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor. Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years. With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux. Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.
The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper. Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.
Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree. Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms. The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side. The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market. The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.
Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?
Latest On Trade Interest In Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto
12:36pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the Marlins’ asking price on Realmuto is viewed by other clubs as “staggering.” Though Realmuto has less control remaining than he did last offseason, he’s coming off a better year and the asking price on him has actually risen from last winter, per Olney.
9:54am: There are as many as 10 teams showing some degree of trade interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who also notes that Miami’s lofty asking price isn’t likely to drop anytime soon. The Astros are one of the many teams in the Realmuto market, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), but to this point they’ve insisted that either outfielder Kyle Tucker or right-hander Forrest Whitley be at the center of the return. Both players are considered to be among the 10 to 15 best prospects in all of baseball. Morosi adds that the Braves are “actively looking for a catcher,” but the Marlins would prefer not to deal Realmuto within the division.
Miami’s asking price in talks with the Astros somewhat mirrors their previous ask from the division-rival Nationals; Washington has been known to have interest in Realmuto for the past year, but reports have indicated that the starting point in any talks last winter was one of two prized young outfielders: Victor Robles or 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up Juan Soto. The Nats are reported to be on the lookout for a catcher themselves, but the continued high asking price and Miami’s reported preference to deal him away from the NL East are both working against that outcome. The same can be said of the Mets, who are also in the market for catching help this winter.
The Marlins’ hefty asking price in Realmuto negotiations is perfectly justified, as the 27-year-old has improved with each big league season since debuting in 2014 and is now, arguably, the best all-around catcher in baseball. A lower back injury shelved him for the first month of the 2018 season, but he returned with a flourish, batting .277/.340/.484 with a career-high 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto also halted a whopping 38 percent of attempted stolen bases against him.
A trade of Realmuto shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however. While agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball recently made a point to publicly declare that Realmuto won’t sign an extension in Miami and that he expects a trade this winter, it should be noted that Berry and Realmuto requested a trade last winter on multiple occasions — only for Realmuto to remain in Miami. But Realmuto does have only two seasons of club control remaining before he hits free agency, and it’d be perfectly defensible to take the position that his trade value will never be higher than it is this offseason. He’s among the game’s best catchers, if not the premier catcher in MLB, and can be controlled for two seasons at a total rate of less than $20MM. He’s among the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball at present, and any package for him should begin with at least one elite prospect and/or a young big leaguer Miami can control for the next half decade or so.
Brian Snitker, Bob Melvin Win Manager Of The Year Awards
Braves manager Brian Snitker and Athletics skipper Bob Melvin were named Manager of the Year in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association Of America announced Tuesday. As a reminder, votes were submitted prior to the beginning of postseason play.
Snitker received 17 first-place votes and edged out Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell 116 to 99 on the weighted ballot system. Colorado’s Bud Black, St. Louis’ Mike Shildt and Chicago’s Joe Maddon rounded out the NL ballot, in that order (full voting breakdown here). In the American League, Melvin topped Boston’s Alex Cora by a score of 121 to 79. Tampa’s Kevin Cash, Houston’s A.J. Hinch and New York’s Aaron Boone rounded out the ballot, in that order (full breakdown).
Snitker, 63, has spent more than two decades in the Braves organization, including three separate stints on the team’s big league coaching staff and 15 seasons as a skipper in the team’s minor league ranks. The Braves lifer was named interim manager upon the dismissal of Fredi Gonzalez in May 2016, and while that move wasn’t expected to become permanent at the time, Snitker has impressed a pair of different front office regimes while deftly managing an increasingly youthful roster that now looks poised for perennial contention in the National League East.
Much has been made of the Braves’ rebuild over the past several seasons, as Atlanta has dealt away stars like Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Justin Upton, among others, while stockpiling minor league talent with an eye towards a sustainable run of contending rosters. The front office no longer resembles the group that began the rebuild, following the stunning resignation of GM John Coppolella in the wake of infractions on the international free-agent market and the quieter departure of former president John Hart; the constant throughout that turmoil was that Snitker was the voice of leadership in the dugout.
Expectations for the Braves headed into the 2018 campaign weren’t exactly high, but the emergence of Ronald Acuna, a huge first half from Ozzie Albies, resurgent efforts from Nick Markakis and Anibal Sanchez, and the ultra-consistent Freddie Freeman — all under the tutelage of Snitker and a veteran coaching staff — helped to fuel a 90-72 club that surprisingly took home the NL East division crown.
As for Melvin, this is his third Manager of the Year Award, having previously taken home the honor with the 2012 A’s and the 2007 Diamondbacks. As was the case with the Braves, Oakland entered the season as a perceived long shot to make the postseason. Doubts about their ability to do so undoubtedly continued into the summer, as Oakland sat at 34-36 and faced an 11.5 game deficit in the American League West on June 15.
What followed was one of the most impressive streaks in recent history, as the A’s closed out the season with a ridiculous 63-29 pace, leaving the division-rival Mariners and Cash’s Rays in the dust as they marched to a 97-65 finish and an improbable American League Wild Card berth. That the Athletics were able to do so despite a catastrophic level of injury in the starting rotation made the feat all the more incredible. Through it all, Melvin kept his club in good spirits and managed a patchwork rotation comprised primarily of 2017-18 non-tenders and minor league signees. Melvin & Co. leaned on Trevor Cahill, Edwin Jackson, Brett Anderson and Mike Fiers in the rotation down the stretch, while emerging stars like Matt Chapman and Matt Olson anchored a lineup that became one of the league’s best.
Beyond Manager of the Year honors, Snitker and Melvin were each rewarded with new contracts following their strong seasons. Atlanta signed Snitker to a two-year extension with an option for the 2021 season, while Melvin’s contract is now guaranteed through 2021.
Ronald Acuna, Shohei Ohtani Win Rookie Of The Year Awards
Precocious Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna has slugged his way to a National League Rookie of the Year Award, while two-way Angels star Shohei Ohtani took the top honors in the American League. While there were strong alternatives in both cases, these two players were the runaway favorites of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters. Juan Soto of the Nationals and Miguel Andujar of the Yankees were the respective runners up.
The 20-year-old Acuna burst onto the scene in 2018, launching 26 home runs and swiping 16 bags in 486 trips to the plate. He ended the season with a stellar .293/.366/.552 batting line. Already viewed as one of the game’s most exciting talents entering the 2018 campaign, Acuna now seems poised to take his place among the very best players in the majors.
It seemed at one point as if Juan Soto — who is even younger than Acuna — would run away with things in the NL. But Acuna went on a tear to end the season, helping lead his club to a stunning NL East title. Both of those players appear likely to clash in thrilling fashion well into the future in the division. (Things will presumably remain friendly, as the two seem to have hit it off on tour in Japan.) And it’ll also be fascinating to watch them each step into the box against third-place finisher Walker Buehler of the Dodgers, who had an exceptional debut season from the mound.
The trio of AL finalists was rather an exciting one as well. Ohtani, 24, staked out a position as the most fascinating baseball player on the planet by turning in high-end performances from the mound and the batter’s box. Primarily lauded for his promise as a hurler, Ohtani exceeded expectations with ten starts of 3.31 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. While his time on the bump was curtailed by a UCL surgery that ultimately required Tommy John surgery, Ohtani proved stunningly productive with the bat as well. Though he benefited from platoon usage, and was limited to DH usage, Ohtani actually bested Acuna and Soto in wRC+ (152 vs. 143 and 146, respectivey).
Andujar was the clear number two in the minds of voters, taking all of the five first-place votes that did not go to Ohtani. The 23-year-old’s output wasn’t quite as eye-popping as those of the others discussed in this post, but he did it over a full season. Andujar ended up popping 27 long balls with a .297/.328/.527 slash in 606 plate appearances, though his glovework did not receive glowing reviews. Unless things are shaken up by trade, he’ll presumably pair with fellow Yankees infielder and third-place AL ROY finisher Gleyber Torres for years to come.
Braves Notes: Brantley, Ramos, Inciarte, Revenues
The latest out of the ATL….
- Michael Brantley and Wilson Ramos are near the top of the Braves’ list of potential free agent targets, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman this week. Given the two players’ age and injury histories, however, Bowman feels Brantley and Ramos are “nothing more than secondary options” for Atlanta at this point. At this early juncture in the offseason, the Braves (and every other team) are likely making inquiries about just about every free agent that fits their needs, so it’s too soon to say whether Atlanta will end up strongly pursuing Brantley and/or Ramos. The pair are fits for the Braves on paper, as Brantley could replace Nick Markakis in the outfield while Ramos could take over behind the plate from free agent Kurt Suzuki.
- Also from Bowman’s mailbag piece, he speculates that “it would at least make sense for” the Braves to test Ender Inciarte’s value on the trade market before age starts to hamper Inciarte’s defense and baserunning. Inciarte only recently turned 28, and there has yet to be much evidence that either his stellar glovework (+7.4 UZR/150, +17 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018) or his work on the basepaths (+6.1 BsR as per Fangraphs’ baserunning metric, though he did only succeed in 28 of 42 stolen base chances last year) is slipping whatsoever. That said, Inciarte has been a below-average hitter and run creator over his career, and actually took a step back at the plate in 2018, hitting just .265/.325/.380 over 660 PA. Since the Braves have another outstanding center field option in Ronald Acuna, it would be a bold but potentially wise move to sell high on Inciarte, as several teams would jump at the chance to add a player with his speed and defense, not to mention his affordable contract (owed $20MM through 2021, plus a club option for 2022). Bowman notes that Atlanta would only move Inciarte for “a significant return,” of course, though the team figures to be open to just about all trade options, with Acuna and Freddie Freeman perhaps being the only true untouchables in the organization.
- As per the most recent quarterly earnings disclosure from Liberty Media (the Braves’ ownership group), the team’s $410MM in revenues for the first nine months of 2018 has already surpassed their $386MM total from all of 2017, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. The move to SunTrust Park for the 2017 season led to an enormous jump in revenues (from $262MM in 2016), and as one might expect, the Braves’ run to the NL East title this season resulted in “increased ticket prices, higher attendance and increased concessions per turnstile” from July through September, as per Liberty Media’s report. It remains to be seen if this revenue jump will manifest into a larger payroll for the Braves this offseason. GM Alex Anthopoulos said during the summer that “there’s no single player that we can’t afford” while discussing possible trade deadline acquisitions, though a midseason pickup is certainly different than a multi-year free agent, expense-wise.
Braves Hire Mike Fast, Look To Upgrade Bench
Analytics guru Mike Fast joined the Atlanta Braves organization this Wednesday, he announced via Twitter. Fast was formerly the director of research and development in Houston before leaving the organization in late September. The former semiconductor engineer will serve as a special assistant to GM Alex Anthopoulous, who has made it a priority to improve the Braves’ analytics department ever since his hiring in November of 2017, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Per Anthopolous himself, Fast will be part of Atlanta’s senior leadership team, giving his input into all areas of baseball operations. Now, some other rumblings from around the NL East…
- Right field and catcher clearly require the attention of the Braves’ front office this winter, where current free agents Kurt Suzuki and newly-minted Silver Slugger Nick Markakis have left holes, but improving the bench is not much further down their winter checklist, writes Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Versatile defender Charlie Culberson was a bright spot for the bench unit in 2018, but they could use a power bat to fill the spot once occupied by Matt Adams (and most recently by current free agent Lucas Duda). Outfielder Adam Duvall was acquired from the Reds last season in part to fill that role, but he struggled mightily in his 33 games as a Brave. Duvall projects to earn $3.1MM his first time through arbitration this winter, which makes him a likely non-tender candidate. He is a career .230/.291/.454 hitter. Still, while GM Alex Anthopoulos said they will be more “open-minded” about spending significant dollars on the bench this season, that’s not a development likely to happen early in the free agent season.
Braves Have Checked In On Robinson Chirinos
- Free agent catcher Robinson Chirinos has drawn some early interest from the Twins and the Braves, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The 34-year-old Chirinos hit the market after the Rangers declined his $4.5MM option. Chirinos’ .222/.338/.419 slash was a departure from his career year in 2017, but he did slug a personal best 18 home runs in 2018. Over the past four seasons in Texas, he’s hit .233/.337/.456 with 54 home runs in 336 games played. Chirinos’ strikeout rate at the plate and caught-stealing rate behind the plate both went in the wrong direction this year (in fairly significant fashion), but his track record at the plate is strong for a catcher, even if he’s never been regarded as a great defensive option.
Dansby Swanson Undergoes Wrist Surgery
Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson underwent wrist surgery recently to “remove a loose body,” per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter). The procedure is not expected to keep Swanson from fully participating in Spring Training.
Swanson, 24, turned in a solid effort last year for the Atlanta organization. He hit only .238/.304/.395, but put the ball over the fence 14 times in 533 plate appearances. Defensive metrics regarded him as a well-above-average performer at short, enough of a showing to largely justify his near-regular action up the middle.
While the Braves can largely rest easy as to Swanson’s health, it’ll be interesting to see how the team handles its infield mix this winter. Johan Camargo and Ozzie Albies each had more productive campaigns than did Swanson, so it’s not as if there’s a glaring need. But the club could conceivably pursue an upgrade. More realistically, adding another piece to the mix could make some sense, particularly if the Braves are skeptical that utilityman Charlie Culberson will continue to outperform his batted-ball data.
However it may seem from the outside, though, Braves GM Alex Anthopolous made clear today that he doesn’t see a need to seek change in the infield mix. As David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker says that, within the organization, “we feel like we’re set in the infield.”
Anthopoulos: Braves Aim To Add Closer In Offseason
The Braves are interested in adding a closer this offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos confirmed to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi at the GM Meetings (Twitter link). That’s a fairly broad term, especially in 2018-19, so there’ll be no shortage of options for the Atlanta organization to pursue. Former Braves star Craig Kimbrel, of course, headlines the free-agent class of relievers, while Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson are among the most recognizable names on the next tier of a fairly deep class of a relievers. Trade targets are harder to pin down, though several names have been generally kicked around the rumor mill recently, including Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, San Diego’s Kirby Yates and Seattle’s Alex Colome. Several other names will become available as the season wears on, and the Braves figure to be connected to a wide swath of ’pen options as they look to add a high-leverage reliever to the mix.
