Reports have pegged the Braves as one of the favorites to sign free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, but David O’Brien of The Athletic throws cold water on that possibility. The Braves have inquired about Keuchel and do have interest in him, per O’Brien, though he writes their interest has been “overstated.” Atlanta has not engaged in deep negotiations with Keuchel, O’Brien adds. The latest from O’Brien jibes with a Tuesday report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who wrote that the Braves are “uncomfortable” with the idea of paying Keuchel the prorated value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer (approximately $11.5MM).
Braves Rumors
Braves Reportedly Not Among “Finalists” To Sign Kimbrel
Though Atlanta fans have been vocal about their desire to see Craig Kimbrel suit up for the Braves once again, that appears decreasingly likely. The Braves have been loosely connected to Kimbrel throughout the year, but now that he’s free of draft compensation and expected to sign in the near future, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter) that the Braves aren’t among the “finalists” to sign the seven-time All-Star.
That comes on the heels of a morning report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal which indicates that the Cubs are “pushing hard” to sign the right-hander. Kimbrel has also been recently connected to the Twins and Phillies.
The Braves’ bullpen need is rather acute, so it would appear that the team has simply decided that even without draft-pick forfeiture, Kimbrel’s asking price is too steep. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year contract, and while the salary in the first year of such an arrangement would be prorated now that we’re a third of the way through the season, Kimbrel is surely seeking a hefty annual rate of pay all the same.
If Kimbrel ultimately lands in Chicago or elsewhere, the Cubs will quite likely look to the trade market to bolster what has been an injury-plagued and generally disappointing relief unit. Luke Jackson, thrice outrighted off the Braves’ 40-man roster last season, has been the club’s most consistent reliever for most of the season. Touki Toussaint is among the game’s most highly regarded starting pitching prospects but has thrived since moving into a relief role (albeit with a somewhat elevated walk rate). Sean Newcomb also looks sharp in a relief capacity, while Anthony Swarzak has been solid since his acquisition. Josh Tomlin, signed to a minor league deal in Spring Training, has been a durable source of multi-inning stints.
But while the Atlanta bullpen’s 4.31 ERA is 15th in the big leagues, the Braves’ 4.93 FIP ranks 26th and their 4.69 xFIP ranks 20th. Braves relievers have walked 11.7 percent of the hitters they’ve faced — the third-highest mark in the Majors. They’re also averaging 1.55 home runs per nine innings pitched, which ties them with the Nationals for the fourth-highest rate in the Majors. The Braves have been fortunate than more than half of the home runs allowed by their bullpen have come with the bases empty, but the combination of one of MLB’s highest walk rates and highest home-run rates isn’t a recipe for long-term success. With several clubs likely to sell off pieces this summer — the Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals and Tigers will have arms available — there’ll be plenty of options for Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos to explore.
Dallas Keuchel Rumors: 6/4/19
4:33pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a lengthy look at the situation, examining the possible reasons that Keuchel has yet to strike up a deal. As Sherman points out, even the prorated version of the $17.9MM qualifying offer value checks in close to $11.5MM, and few teams have that type of money budgeted this time of year. The Braves, for instance, are “uncomfortable” with that price point, per Sherman, while the Yankees are unlikely to exceed it, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.
Previous struggles from players who waited into the season to sign (e.g. Kendrys Morales, Greg Holland) have created concerns over what to expect from Keuchel. As a result, some clubs would prefer a lower base salary with per-start incentives — similar to the one Gio Gonzalez initially signed with the Yankees in Spring Training — but Keuchel and Boras would obviously prefer a full guarantee. Sherman adds that Keuchel’s camp has floated some multi-year scenarios with an opt-out after the 2019 season, but a straight one-year pact still seems likely.
8:55am: With draft compensation no longer a factor, a signing could come at any time for free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. As always, we’ll be on top of the latest developments in the market here at MLBTR.
We heard yesterday that the Yankees and Braves were among the likeliest possible landing spots for Keuchel, with a few other teams also among those with ongoing interest. Now, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) takes things a bit further by labeling the New York and Atlanta organizations the favorites for the veteran southpaw.
Another source labels the Yankees the true favorites, Feinsand tweets. Braves beat reporters, meanwhile, have poured cold water on the idea of a move for Keuchel. (Links to Twitter.) It’s impossible to know when and how a signing will come together, but Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that there’s a sense resolution could come “relatively soon.”
As things stand, says Feinsand, the Yankees and Braves “are believed to be in the same area with their offers.” No doubt Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are hopeful that one of these or another team will create some separation in the financial department.
There has long been some uncertainty regarding Keuchel’s contractual demands and outlook. There’s little question he has backed down from any opening asking price, but there have been varying indications as to whether he’d accept (or even seek) a contract that wraps up at season’s end. If he’s only looking for a half-year arrangement, Keuchel will surely want it to be for a hefty rate of pay. But he’d assuredly also consider other factors with an eye already on a return to the open market.
Even if the Yanks and Braves are indeed “favorites” at the moment, it’s worth remembering that such a status means relatively little until the ink hits the paper. Other organizations are surely also engaged with Boras — the Cardinals, Rays, Brewers, and Twins have all been cited of late — and all are no doubt also canvassing the early trade market possibilities.
Latest On Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel’s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.
The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).
The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.
Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.
Should The Braves Trade Ender Inciarte?
Well, you see the question in the headline. Should they? In brief, in my opinion: no.
This is the sort of query we get a lot from readers. When there’s depth at a position, it’s natural to wonder whether some of it could be used in a swap. We’ve been asked quite a bit about Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte, who struggled before hitting the injured list and has now perhaps been indirectly Wally Pipp’ed by exciting young slugger Austin Riley.
Thing is, Inciarte is no Pipp. When Pipp was eclipsed by Lou Gehrig, he was a 32-year-old first baseman mired in a slump after years of inconsistent offensive production. Inciarte? Ironically, his 63 OPS+ is a near-match to Pipp’s 62 OPS+ from that fateful 1925 season. Otherwise, they are nothing alike. Inciarte is a high-grade defensive outfielder and baserunner. Even if he’s a slightly below-average true-talent hitter, which seems like a fair characterization, he’s a valuable roster piece.
I admit it, the Pipp thing isn’t really even an apt analogy in the first place. But that only goes to prove the point on Inciarte.
Take a look at this Braves roster. Ronald Acuna is capable of playing center field and probably doing whatever else he happens to feel like on a baseball field. Nick Markakis is entrenched in right for the rest of the season and Riley’s bat isn’t coming out of the lineup unless and until MLB pitchers figure him out. On the reserve side, Matt Joyce has been a useful lefty bench bat; Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo are infielders by trade.
Inciarte still fits just fine — quite nicely, in fact, especially given that Riley is still learning the outfield on the fly. Inciarte could enter late in games as a pinch-runner and/or defensive replacement for Riley, leaving the Braves with an excellent defensive alignment. And let’s not forget that Inciarte has a history of solid output as an everyday player. If there’s an injury or a sudden downturn, it’d be awfully nice to have him around.
Making a roster adjustment to accommodate him shouldn’t be too hard. Joyce is a bit of a luxury for a team that has so many firm regulars. He has been tasked with a limited role, serving mostly as a pinch-hitter and logging only 35 1/3 innings in the field. It’s not as if Inciarte isn’t capable enough against right-handed pitching himself; for his career, he’s a .289/.339/.404 hitter with the platoon advantage.
If the Braves prefer to hang onto Joyce, and maintain their overall slate of players, they can option down Camargo. Heck, Culberson is hitting like he’d belong on one of Gehrig’s old teams, so expanding his role would make sense regardless. With Riley on the roster, there’s a ready-made third-base fill-in to spell Josh Donaldson. And Camargo is really struggling at the plate. He has seen an erosion in plate discipline. He’s putting the ball in the air more but not doing so with authority, leaving him with a meager power output (.111 ISO) and low BABIP (.244) that’s not entirely undeserved. There’s good reason to think he’ll ultimately improve upon his ugly .213/.261/.324 slash, but some time working out the kinks at Triple-A wouldn’t be the worst idea.
The future considerations also weigh in favor of keeping Inciarte around. If you’ll indulge my strained comparison yet further … well, Riley isn’t the Iron Horse. No, I’m not talking about the attributes of the players here. It’s about the nature of the roster situation. Riley wasn’t called up to replace Donaldson, who unlike Pipp has been both effective and healthy this year. But third base is Riley’s natural position. And Donaldson will be a free agent at season’s end. Markakis is also a free agent. Really, when you look ahead to the Braves’ 2020 roster, there’s just one sure thing in the outfield: Acuna.
Given that situation, keeping the respected and familiar Inciarte on hand would make a ton of sense. He could re-take his semi-regular role in center or platoon with a right-handed-hitting player (perhaps even Adam Duvall, who is still stuck at Triple-A). That’d help the Braves bridge the gap to Cristian Pache and other young talents.
Inciarte’s extension calls for a reasonable $7MM salary in 2020, with $8MM for the following year and a $9MM club option thereafter. That’s still a nice price tag for a thrifty Atlanta organization. If they swing some big trades, signings, and/or promotions and no longer wish to keep Inciarte, the contract ought still to be movable.
To be sure, moving Inciarte should (and no doubt would) be considered if there’s an appealing-enough offer. But making a trade now would likely mean selling low. It’d cut into the team’s depth and flexibility, this season and in the near future. And it probably isn’t necessary — or shouldn’t be, anyway. The club is still loaded with young talent, not all of which can be maintained easily within the constraints of MLB’s roster rules. And it shouldn’t need to shed salary (or avoid taking it on) to acquire any desired mid-season upgrades, since the team expressly reserved payroll capacity for the middle of the season.
Braves Interested In Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel
Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos “made it clear” Sunday that they have legitimate interest in free-agent pitchers Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, according to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM. Unsurprisingly, though, the Braves don’t seem inclined to sign Kimbrel or Keuchel until the June 3 draft, at which point a team would not have to surrender a pick for either of the two qualifying offer recipients.
Given their outstanding track records in the majors, Kimbrel and Keuchel entered free agency in November as two of the highest-ranked players available. High-paying, long-term contracts looked likely for both players at the time, but seven months later, they remain without teams. That probably won’t be the case for much longer considering the soon-to-expire draft pick ramifications, however.
For the Braves, the interest in Kimbrel is particularly notable. The right-hander was a 2008 draftee of the Braves, who took him in the third round and then saw him develop into one of the best picks in franchise history. Now one of the greatest relievers ever, Kimbrel spent 2010-14 with Atlanta, for which he pitched to a near-spotless 1.43 ERA/1.52 FIP with 14.82 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 and piled up 186 saves over 289 innings. The Braves then ended their relationship with Kimbrel when they traded him to the Padres in April 2015. Kimbrel, now 31, moved on to the Red Sox via trade in 2016 and remained a formidable late-game force with the club through 2018, though he wasn’t as effective last season after an otherworldly showing in 2017.
On paper, Kimbrel would be an enormous pickup for an Atlanta team whose bullpen has fallen short this season. Their relief unit ranks 22nd in the majors in ERA and 27th in walks per nine innings, though current closer Luke Jackson, Touki Toussaint, Sean Newcomb and Jacob Webb have been good to great. Otherwise, the Braves have shuffled through several veterans who are far less inspiring than Kimbrel. Arodys Vizcaino, Jesse Biddle and Jonny Venters – all of whom are now out of the organization – as well as Josh Tomlin, the just-acquired Anthony Swarzak and Jerry Blevins are among familiar names the Braves have turned to in search of solutions.
The Braves’ rotation has been better than their bullpen, ranking 10th in ERA and 18th in fWAR, but the club seems to believe there’s ample room for improvement. They could look to Keuchel, a 31-year-old southpaw who’s a former AL Cy Young winner (2015), for help. The ex-Astro would be the most established starter on Atlanta’s staff, but he’d have a hard time topping the marvelous production Mike Soroka and Max Fried have put forth. Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran have been useful in their own right, but the Braves have otherwise struggled to find a capable fifth member for their rotation. Mike Foltynewicz entered 2019 off what looked like a breakout season, but he has been a weak link so far. Newcomb, Toussaint, Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson have also had difficulty over a combined eight starts.
Of course, it’s worth pointing out that no one knows when Kimbrel or Keuchel will be ready to help a team. Even if they sign within the next week, they’ll likely need time to prepare to join their next club(s). Beyond that, there’s the key matter of how much they’ll cost. That may be of especially great import to the Braves, whose payroll has left fans upset this season. They opened 2018 with an $118MM-plus outlay, but despite winning the NL East last season, they’re now in the $115MM range. What’s more, back in February, neither Anthopoulos nor Braves CEO Terry McGuirk seemed too enthusiastic about distributing a big, multiyear contract. However, McGuirk did note, “We still have an appreciable amount of dry powder ready to go.”
Latest On Ender Inciarte
It appears the lumbar strain that sent Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte to the injured list May 15 will keep him out for “a while longer,” Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Braves manager Brian Snitker said Saturday that Inciarte’s back is “still barking a little bit and giving him some problems,” adding he’s not ready to resume baseball activities.
A Brave since 2016, Inciarte was a valuable member of the club in his first three Atlanta seasons, combining for 8.9 fWAR in 1,956 plate appearances. Inciarte mixed roughly league-average offense with splendid defense and high-end base running in that span to make him one of the majors’ most underrated regulars. The Braves liked what they saw from the get-go, as they inked Inciarte to an extension worth a guaranteed $30.525MM in December 2016 – one year after robbing him from the Diamondbacks.
Although the 28-year-old Inciarte has generally been a solid cog for the Braves, 2019 has been a tough go so far. Before he went on the IL, Inciarte hit a career-worst .218/.300/.323 (64 wRC+) in 140 trips to the plate. A .260 batting average on balls in play, down from a .315 lifetime mean, has contributed to that unattractive line. At the same time, though, Inciarte has swung and missed more than ever en route to the lowest contact rate of his career. He’s also running a paltry .276 expected weighted on-base average that ranks toward the bottom of the majors and almost matches an even weaker .273 wOBA.
Inciarte’s injury has continued to help usher in a youth movement for Atlanta, a team that’s chock-full of young contributors. His IL placement led the club to shift budding superstar left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. to center and promote touted prospect Austin Riley, who has dazzled in the majors since his May 15 debut. Riley’s presence has helped lift the Braves to an 8-3 record without Inciarte, giving the reigning NL East champions a 29-24 overall mark. Should that keep up, Inciarte may not be in for daily playing time when he’s able to return. The Braves have Josh Donaldson locked into Riley’s usual position (third base), after all, while durable right fielder Nick Markakis seldom sits and has gotten on base a hefty 38 percent of the time this year.
Sobotka Reinstated, Optioned To Triple-A
- Speaking of bullpen troubles, the Braves actually lead the league in number of pitchers used in relief so far this season with 19, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Chad Sobotka, one of the nineteen, was activated from the 10-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A, per MLB Roster Moves. Sobotka earned -0.6 rWAR in just 13 appearances before his injury, pitching to an 8.25 ERA while walking 6.8 batters per nine innings.
Braves, Mariners Swap Jesse Biddle, Anthony Swarzak
1:13pm: The Mariners are sending around $2MM to the Braves in the trade to balance out the difference in salary, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Paired with the remaining money that would’ve been allocated for Biddle’s pre-arb salary, it seems likely that the trade is effectively cash-neutral.
12:51pm: The Mariners announced that they’ve acquired left-handed reliever Jesse Biddle and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino from the Braves in exchange for right-hander Anthony Swarzak and cash. Vizcaino’s inclusion in the trade would appear to be purely a financial component of the trade, as he’s a free agent at season’s end and is not expected to pitch again in 2019 after undergoing shoulder surgery. Vizcaino is on the 60-day injured list, so there are no additional 40-man moves required by the Mariners to accommodate the addition of Biddle, who will report to the team’s Major League bullpen.
Biddle, 27, gave the Braves 63 2/3 innings of 3.11 ERA ball with 9.5 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 55.6 percent ground-ball rate in 2018, but virtually nothing has gone right for the southpaw so far in 2019. Through 15 appearances and a span of 11 2/3 frames, Biddle has served up seven earned runs (and another four unearned runs) on 18 hits and 10 walks with 11 strikeouts. His velocity has remained strong, as Biddle has averaged 94.1 mph on his fastball so far in 2019.
Because he was out-of-options and playing on a win-now club, Biddle’s fate looked largely sealed as this year’s control struggles continued from April into May. He was designated for assignment by the Braves last week. The Mariners will hope that they’re able to turn him around and get him back to his 2018 form. If they can manage to do so, they’ll control Biddle through the 2023 season. However, he’ll have to sort things out at the big league level, as his lack of minor league options means he can’t be sent down without first being passed through waivers.
For the Braves, they’d already decided to move on from Biddle and stood to watch Vizcaino leave as a free agent at the end of the year, so they’re not really giving up anything to take a cheap look at Swarzak. The 33-year-old Swarzak has struggled to a 5.27 ERA and eight walks (one intentional) in 13 2/3 innings with the Mariners, but he’s also racked up 17 strikeouts. Injuries have hampered him considerably since signing a two-year, $14MM contract with the Mets prior to the 2018 season, as he’s dealt with an oblique strain and a pair of shoulder-related injuries.
In his last full, healthy season in 2017, however, Swarzak turned in 77 1/3 innings with a 2.33 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9 and a 43.9 percent grounder rate between the White Sox and Brewers. That success is recent enough to give the Braves something to dream on as they scour what is likely an extremely thin trade market for bullpen help at this juncture of the season. Atlanta will surely be active in pursuing additional pieces over the next couple of months, but few teams are willing to sell off quality arms in mid-May — and those that are willing to do so generally place lofty asking prices on said arms given the scarce supply this time of year.
Swarzak will head to Atlanta without any sort of guarantee that he’ll be a long-term piece for the remainder of the season. The fact that the Braves unloaded the remaining $3.43MM on Vizcaino’s deal and acquired cash from the Mariners makes it likely that Seattle sent enough money to make this a cash-neutral swap. Swarzak is being paid an $8.5MM salary in 2019 and has about $6.08MM of that sum still to be paid out.
Braves Select Jerry Blevins, Release Jonny Venters
The Braves are again shaking up the bullpen, selecting the contract of lefty Jerry Blevins, who’d been designated and outrighted earlier in the week after clearing waivers, to replace fellow lefty Jonny Venters, who’s been issued his release by the club. (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).
The latest chapter in the renaissance project for three-time Tommy John surgery survivor Venters, 34, didn’t go as planned. Though the lefty threw just 4 2/3 IP for a shaken Atlanta pen, he allowed three homers and walked eight over the frame. His average fastball velocity still registers at a competitive 93.0 MPH, so he may yet have some juice left in the tank, but it seemingly won’t be deployed for the team with whom he initially made his mark.
Blevins, 35, has been on a whirlwind tour in the last week, and he’ll again find himself at SunTrust Park for the back half of Atlanta’s weekend series with Milwaukee. Blevins has been left-handed kryptonite over the course of his 13-year MLB career, holding southpaws to a sickly .215/.271/.315 career mark. His numbers, though, have slipped considerably over the last two seasons – the lefty’s been homer prone for nearly the first time – and he hasn’t held lefties in comparable check.
It’s the latest in an early-season lefty exodus from the Atlanta ’pen, as the club had already sent down penciled-in set-up man A.J. Minter and designated Jesse Biddle for assignment.
