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MLBTR Poll: Last Year’s Division Champs

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Of the six teams that finished in first place in their divisions in 2018, three (the Red Sox, Indians and Brewers) failed to defend their crowns last season. Two (the Red Sox and Indians) didn’t even make the playoffs, so ruling your division one year doesn’t mean you’ll end up in the postseason the next. Last season, the Yankees, Astros and Twins finished atop their divisions in the American League, while the Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals were the top seeds in the NL. Among those six, who’s the most vulnerable going into the new season? Let’s review the offseasons they’ve had…

AL:

  • Astros: If you’ve paid any attention to baseball in the past several weeks, you know this offseason has been a catastrophe for the Astros. They got rid of general manager Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch as a result of a sign-stealing scandal that has rocked baseball, replacing them with James Click and Dusty Baker. The Astros are still loaded with talent, but they lost the great Gerrit Cole even before their sign-stealing shenanigans came to light. Now, there’s plenty of skepticism they’ll put together a fourth straight 100-win season after such a horrendous winter – one in which they were very quiet in free agency. What’s more, they’re stuck in a division with a legit challenger in Oakland and two improving clubs in the Angels and Rangers.
  • Yankees: New York took Cole from Houston, which has been the Wile E. Coyote to the Yankees’ Road Runner in recent postseasons. The Yankees looked as if they’d have a tremendous rotation with Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as their top four, but health woes are already haunting the club yet again after an injury-riddled 2019. Severino, who barely pitched last season, is now facing a very worrisome situation with his forearm; meanwhile, Paxton will sit out until at least May or June as a result of back surgery. The Yankees are still laden with talent, and they remain capable of pulverizing the opposition with their offense, but some of the shine has come off since the Cole signing because of the Severino and Paxton situations. Fortunately for the Yankees, there may only be one team capable of standing up to them in the AL East – the Rays.
  • Twins: It was quite a winter for the Twins, who bolstered their rotation with the additions of Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. They also retained Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Perhaps more importantly, they signed third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92MM – the largest contract they’ve ever given out in free agency. So, a team that hit an all-time record 307 home runs in 2019 seems as if it’ll put a similarly scary offense on the field this year. The Twins could face more resistance in their division from the White Sox, who had an aggressive winter, though the Indians haven’t really bettered themselves. The Tigers have, but they’ll still struggle to win many games, while the Royals also figure to wind up among the game’s worst teams.

(Poll link for app users)

NL:

  • Dodgers: What do you get the team that won 106 games last season? How about Mookie Betts, who’s on the short list of the greatest players in the game? With Betts in tow, the Dodgers will enter 2020 as the overwhelming favorites to win their division for the eighth year in a row, but an improved Arizona club should at least offer a decent challenge. The Padres have also worked to get better since last season ended, but they don’t appear to be any match for the stacked Dodgers, while the Rockies and Giants look to be way behind.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s down Donaldson, but it was rather active in adding free agents. The team plucked the likes of Marcell Ozuna, Will Smith, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud and Chris Martin off the open market. Hamels is dealing with shoulder problems, however, and it’s unclear when he’ll be able to pitch in 2020.  Regardless, the Braves still have quite a bit of premier talent (Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka spring to mind), so it’s easy to envision them winning a third consecutive division title. At the same time, the reigning world champion Nationals, the Mets and Phillies are realistic contenders for the NL East championship.
  • Cardinals: Aside from the Reds, a 75-win outfit a year ago, it wasn’t really a busy offseason for any NL Central team. That includes the Cardinals, whose biggest addition was Korean left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim (and they lost their No. 1 free agent, the aforementioned Ozuna). They’re now set to open 2020 without one of their best starters in Miles Mikolas, who just received a platelet-rich plasma injection. The good news for St. Louis is that there’s no apparent juggernaut in its division, as the Cubs and Brewers have either stayed roughly the same or gotten worse since last year ended.

(Poll link for app users)

Camp Battles: Braves’ Third Base Situation

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The Braves had a better third base setup than the vast majority of major league teams a year ago. Josh Donaldson, whom they signed to a one-year, $23MM contract heading into 2019, finished as one of the most valuable players at his position. In his first (and maybe only) season in the National League, the former AL MVP hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR in 659 plate appearances. His contributions helped the Braves to a 97-65 record and their second straight NL East title, but they’re now facing life without him as the new season nears.

Atlanta’s hope was to retain Donaldson after his productive 2019, but the club was unable to pull off the feat. The 34-year-old instead went back to the AL, where he had previously played with the Athletics, Blue Jays and Indians, on a four-year, $92MM contract with the Twins. Donaldson’s loss leaves a serious void in the Braves’ lineup, but they’re hoping to somewhat fill his offensive void with outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the club inked to a one-year, $18MM contract a few weeks back. But what of third base? Well, the Braves have a couple options there, though they’ll have a very hard time making anyone forget about Donaldson. Let’s explore who’s in the mix…

  • Johan Camargo: An underrated producer in 2018, the switch-hitting Camargo posted 3.3 fWAR while seeing time at both positions along the left side of the Braves’ infield. The 2019 campaign didn’t make for much of an encore, though, as Camargo batted a miserable .233/.279/.384 with seven home runs and minus-0.5 fWAR in 248 plate appearances. Perhaps it wasn’t that surprising; after all, while Camargo registered good bottom-line results from 2017-18, his Statcast numbers lagged well behind in both years. He only put up a .282 expected weighted-on base average in ’19, which didn’t fall that far behind the .304 and .310 marks he recorded in the prior two seasons.
  • Austin Riley: The 41st overall pick of the Braves in 2015, Riley earned his first major league promotion last May, at which point he was considered one of the absolute best prospects in the sport. Riley began with a flourish in the bigs, but his numbers trailed off significantly as the year progressed. The 22-year-old spent the majority of his season in left field and slashed .226/.279/.471 over 297 trips to the plate. Riley exhibited impressive power (18 homers. .245 ISO), but his strikeout and walk numbers left plenty to be desired. He fanned in 36.4 percent of plate appearances and drew free passes just 5.4 percent of the time. Both figures are going to have to improve if he’s going to turn into a viable major league regular.

The Braves continue to look like one of the most talented teams in the NL, but if Camargo and Riley fall flat this year, it could help lead to a fall in the standings. The Braves could still bolster their third base situation via trade, though, as they’ve been connected to the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado and the Cubs’ Kris Bryant in recent months. It doesn’t appear either star will wind up on the move before the season, but perhaps Atlanta will revisit acquiring them if the team’s not happy with its production at third during the first half of the season.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Content In Right Field

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  • In his two years in the majors, Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. has divided his time between the corner outfield and center. He’s slated to open 2020 in right field – the OF position he has played the least during his career. But the Braves are bullish on Acuna in right – particularly because of his arm – and he’s more than happy to play there, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. The 22-year-old told Burns that right’s “a position I feel more comfortable at.” That’s good news for Atlanta, which expects Acuna to line up there not just this year, but for the majority of his career, per Burns.

Braves Extend Alex Anthopoulos, Brian Snitker

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve promoted general manager Alex Anthopoulos to president of baseball operations and extended his contract through the 2024 season. The Atlanta organization also announced contract extensions for manager Brian Snitker and his entire coaching staff; they’ll now be in place through the 2021 season. Anthopoulos had previously bee under contract through the 2021 season, while Snitker was signed through 2020 with a club option for 2021.

“I am very pleased that Alex will be leading the Atlanta Braves’ baseball operations for years to come,” chairman Terry McGuirk said in the press release announcing the news. “Since he joined the organization, Alex has continued the winning tradition that Braves fans have come to expect.”

Alex Anthopoulos | Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

The 42-year-old Anthopoulos has been the Braves’ head of baseball operations since Nov. 13, 2017, when he was hired following the ousting of GM John Coppolella. The former Blue Jays GM and Dodgers vice president of baseball operations wasted little time in orchestrating a complex, financially motivated swap with one of his former clubs; in December 2017, Anthopoulos traded Matt Kemp and the remainder of his contract to the Dodgers in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon McCarthy, Charlie Culberson, Scott Kazmir and $4.5MM.

The remainder of the 2017-18 offseason was a quiet one for Anthopoulos, although his spring pickup of Anibal Sanchez proved to be one of the minor league signings in recent memory, as Sanchez completely revitalized his career as a key rotation piece for the division-winning Braves.

Since that first offseason at the helm, Anthopoulos has become considerably more active both in trade and free agency. The Braves, under Anthopoulos, have shied away from long-term deals for aging veterans but have been aggressive in short-term pacts, signing the likes of Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud and Chris Martin to one- and two-year deals. Lefty Will Smith is the only free agent under this regime to sign a deal of three years. Anthopoulos has been active at both trade deadlines under his watch as well, acquiring pitchers Kevin Gausman, Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Darren O’Day and the aforementioned Martin in a series of July swaps.

The best moves the Braves have made under Anthopoulos were surely locking down a pair of their own core pieces, however. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s eight-year, $100MM contract and Ozzie Albies’ seven-year, $35MM contract are two of the most extreme examples of club-friendly deals throughout the sport. That pairing surrendered a stunning eight would-be free-agent seasons (four apiece), giving the Braves control over the majority of their prime years at well below-market rates. In the long run, both deals should provide exceptional levels of flexibility both in terms of actual payroll and luxury-tax obligations.

Anthopoulos’ track record isn’t spotless, of course. The Gausman acquisition paid dividends in 2018 but yielded disastrous results in 2019. It’s still rather surprising that he agreed to take on all of the $14MM owed to Melancon for the 2020 season in last July’s trade. And time will tell whether the decision to let Donaldson walk rather than match (or at least come close to matching) the Twins’ $92MM guarantee. All of that said, there’s little question that Anthopoulos has helped to maintain a strong farm system while supporting the big league roster with sensible, short-term additions. The Braves are in position to contend for a third straight division title in the NL East, and there’s little reason to think that won’t be the case for years to come, thanks to a controllable core centered around Acuna, Albies, Dansby Swanson, Mike Soroka and Max Fried.

Brian Snitker | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Turning to the 64-year-old Snitker, he’s now locked in for what will be his fourth and fifth full years with the reins in Atlanta’s dugout. A Braves lifer who has spent a staggering 40-plus years in the organization in some capacity, Snitker served as a minor league coach, minor league manager, Major League bullpen coach and Major League third base coach before taking over as interim manager in 2016. This is the second short-term extension he’s signed since being hired as the club’s full-time skipper.

“Winning consecutive division titles illustrates the leadership and impact of Brian and his staff,” Anthopoulos said of the extension. “We are happy to know they will be leading the Braves through the 2021 season.”

Under Snitker’s leadership, the Braves have played at a 318-292 clip (.521) — including a 187-137 showing over the past two seasons. His 90-72 record in 2018 helped him to win National League Manager of the Year honors. However, the Braves have also yet to advance in a postseason series under Snitker. They were bounced by the Dodgers in the 2018 NLDS and by the Cardinals in the 2019 NLDS.

Also receiving contract extensions through the 2021 season Monday were catching coach Sal Fasano, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, bullpen coach Marty Reed, hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, third base coach Ron Washington, bench coach Walt Weiss, first base/outfield coach Eric Young Sr. and assistant hitting coach Jose Castro.

Tyler Flowers Discusses Braves' Catching Split

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  • Tyler Flowers is entering his fifth season behind the plate for the Braves, set to again participate in another timeshare, this time with the newly-signed Travis d’Arnaud.  The club’s strategy of more or less splitting the playing time between two catchers every season is a sound one, Flowers tells Steve Hummer of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, as “It has been a good way to balance starts and kind of keep both catchers fresh.”  Relying on a more traditional starter/backup allotment of playing time would make things tough on an everyday catcher since “It’s extremely difficult to start 120 [games] in Atlanta.  With the conditions, it makes it almost impossible.  I have a more difficult time than most with the heat and sweating and cramping, so I know it would be a challenge for me.”

Cole Hamels Slowed By Shoulder Irritation

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Recently inked Braves lefty Cole Hamels isn’t reporting to camp just yet, the team informed reporters including David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter links). He’ll remain at home for a stretch after experiencing shoulder irritation this winter.

The news isn’t drastic just yet, but it’s certainly not what you hope to hear at this stage of the pre-season. Hamels is set to be reevaluated in three weeks’ time, which means he’ll almost certainly miss most or all of Spring Training. While manager Brian Snitker is expressing optimism, it’s hard to imagine that Hamels won’t be delayed at the start of the season.

For the Braves, the hope will be that this is just an early-season blip. The club had inked Hamels to a one-year, $18MM deal with the expectation that the durable veteran would anchor the rotation at a solid value, without any long-term entanglements.

Hamels has been one of the game’s most reliable arms over his 14 seasons in the majors. The 36-year-old missed a handful of outings last year (27 starts) and was sidelined for a bit in 2017 (24 starts), but has otherwise taken the ball more than thirty times in ten of the past dozen campaigns.

At this point, it doesn’t seem there’s reason for the Braves to go scrambling for fill-in options. The newfound concern could help explain why the club just added Josh Tomlin, a potential swingman, to a group of non-roster invitees that already includes Felix Hernandez. There are plenty of younger pitchers who could be candidates to fill in for a few early-season starts as well, though obviously the calculus could change if Hamels doesn’t respond as hoped to rest and treatment.

Braves Re-Sign Josh Tomlin

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The Braves have re-signed righty Josh Tomlin, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to cover on Twitter. It’s a minor-league deal.

Tomlin, 35, was a steadying presence for the Atlanta organization in 2019. Over 79 1/3 innings of action in 51 appearances, he worked to a 3.74 ERA. Though he managed only 51 strikeouts, Tomlin also posted a typically stingy tally of just seven free passes.

One of the game’s softer-throwing pitchers, Tomlin also generates an abundance of spin on both his fastball and curve. With his consistently exceptional control, it’s just enough for the veteran to avoid hard contact — but he’s always walking a fine line. In 2018, opposing hitters produced a .396 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) with a whopping 3.20 home runs per nine. Last year, Tomlin managed to limit them to a .308 wOBA (.312 xwOBA) and a palatable 1.59 HR/9.

Clearly, Tomlin will have to earn his way onto the active roster in camp. It’s hard to handicap the odds at this point, but unless injuries intervene, the Braves could be left to decide between Tomlin and one of their younger arms for a seventh pen slot.

Checking In On Last Year’s NL Division Champs

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We checked in earlier tonight on how things are shaping up for last year’s American League division winners as get set for a new season. Let’s do the same here for the three Senior Circuit clubs that won division titles in 2019…

NL West – Dodgers (106-56; won division by 21 games)

  • It’s hard to assess the Dodgers’ roster without knowing if their planned Mookie Betts acquisition will go through. There are many moving parts involved in that deal, as a Betts pickup would send fellow outfielders Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson, not to mention righty Kenta Maeda, to different teams. Regardless of that, and regardless of what wasn’t an especially active offseason for the Dodgers before the Betts swap, they’re in line to take home their eighth straight division championship in 2020. That said, they’ll face more competition from the Diamondbacks and Padres. Those two teams have enjoyed impressive offseasons, though it’s still difficult to imagine either toppling the juggernaut Dodgers in 2020.

NL East – Braves (97-65; won division by four games)

  • The Braves lost a few key free agents in Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran, but they still look like a rock-solid club when considering the talent on hand and their new additions. Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka continue to headline their core, and they’ve picked up Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels and Travis d’Arnaud in free agency. There’s little doubt the Braves will be very good again in 2020; problem is that they’re stuck in a division with two or three real challengers. The Nationals, last year’s world champions, as well as the Mets and Phillies have done quite a bit of tinkering with their rosters this winter. Even the Marlins have tried to better themselves. All things considered, the NL East is shaping up to be a dogfight this year.

NL Central – Cardinals (91-71; won division by two games)

  • Like the NL East, the NL Central should be hotly contested in 2020. The Cardinals ruled by a thin margin last season, but they’ve since had a pretty low-key offseason. For the most part, they’ll be relying on their talent from 2019 to nab another title this year. Luckily for the Cardinals, neither the Brewers nor Cubs look demonstrably better (they’re arguably worse) than they were last season, and the Pirates’ roster is a mess. The Reds have been one of the offseason’s busiest teams, though, and look as if they’ll have a chance to jump from 75-win team to playoff-caliber club in 2020.

Braves Win Arbitration Hearing Against Shane Greene

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The Braves have won their arbitration hearing against right-handed reliever Shane Greene, the Associated Press reports. He’ll now earn the $6.25MM salary figure submitted by the Braves rather than the $6.75MM salary for which he filed.

Acquired in a deadline deal that sent prospects Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte to the Tigers, Greene was unable to replicate the dominance he’d shown in Detroit in his new setting. The 1.18 ERA he posted in 38 innings as a Tiger last year never appeared close to sustainable, as it was largely predicated on a .178 average on balls in play and a sky-high 85.2 percent strand rate, but the extent to which Greene regressed in Atlanta was nevertheless a bit surprising.

That’s not to say that Greene wasn’t a useful bullpen piece, but he punched out 28.5 percent of the hitters he faced with Detroit, only to see that number plummet to 20.8 percent with the Braves. Greene still notched a respectable 4.01 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 24 2/3 innings with the Braves, adding in another run allowed in 2 2/3 postseason frames in the NLDS.

This will be the final trip through the arbitration process for Greene, who is set to become a free agent at season’s end. The $500K gap over which the two sides argued seems trivial to most fans but is viewed in a vastly different light by teams and agencies. Hearings such as this one serve as a reminder that the actual immediate cost savings are typically trivial; rather, it’s in teams’ best interest to try to fight for every last dollar rather than make concessions, as future arbitration cases for similar players are based upon the cases of today. Conversely, if an agency is able to even push a client’s salary forward by a couple hundred thousand dollars, that becomes a data point for future comparables. MLBTR spoke to several league execs about the intricacies of arbitration a few years back, and the points discussed still ring true in 2020.

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