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Corbin Carroll Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Mets right-hander Kodai Senga came in second while Dodgers outfielder James Outman placed third.

Carroll was selected to Arizona’s roster in late August of last year, allowing him to get a taste of the majors but without exhausting his rookie status. He fared extremely well in that audition, hitting .260/.330/.500 in his first 115 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 131, indicating he was 31% better than the league average hitter in that time. The D’Backs felt confident enough in Carroll based on that showing, and his work as a minor leaguer, to give him an eight-year extension with a guarantee of $111MM.

They were hoping he would be an integral part of the club and help them make the postseason for the first time since 2017. He went on to have an incredible showing in his first full season in the majors, hitting 25 home runs and stealing 54 bases. His .285/.362/.506 line led to a 131 wRC+ and he also got strong grades for his outfield defense. He produced 6.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference had him at 5.4. The club did indeed break their postseason drought, snagging a Wild Card spot and eventually going all the way to the World Series.

While the award is surely thrilling for Carroll and the Snakes on its own, there are other implications of Carroll taking the trophy. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Carroll, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #2 prospect on all three of those lists. Gunnar Henderson, who got the AL trophy today, was #1.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Carroll did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the Diamondbacks, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Senga also had a strong season, his first after coming over from Japan. He made 29 starts for the Mets with a 2.98 earned run average, 29.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. Players considered by MLB to be foreign professionals, as Senga is, aren’t eligible to earn PPI picks for their clubs. Outman also had a solid campaign, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 16 bases. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but offset that somewhat by walking at a 12% clip. His .248/.353/.437 batting line led to a wRC+ of 118 and he also graded out well in the field. He wasn’t considered a top 100 prospect coming into the year and wouldn’t have qualified for a PPI pick even if he surpassed Senga for second place.

The voting was unanimous, per the vote tally at BBWAA, with Carroll getting all 30 first-place votes. Senga got 22 second-place votes and Outman got five. Other players getting votes were Nolan Jones of the Rockies, Eury Pérez of the Marlins, Patrick Bailey of the Giants and three Reds: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

D-Backs, Reds, Angels Interested In Jeimer Candelario

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The Angels, Diamondbacks and Reds are among the teams that have expressed early interest in Jeimer Candelario, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Giants are also in the third base mix, per Heyman, although it’s not clear if they’re targeting Candelario specifically.

Arizona is the most straightforward of the three teams. Evan Longoria hit free agency, leaving the Snakes with a third base group headlined by Emmanuel Rivera, Jace Peterson and rookie Jordan Lawlar. The latter is one of the sport’s most talented prospects but has only 30 games above the Double-A level. Neither Rivera nor Peterson bring much to the table offensively, with both having particularly poor second halves.

Candelario would be a clear offensive boost. The switch-hitter combined for a .251/.336/.471 line with 22 home runs in 576 plate appearances between the Nationals and Cubs this year. While a dismal year in 2022 led to a non-tender from the Tigers, Candelario has been an above-average hitter in three of the last four seasons. Going back to 2020, he sports a .254/.329/.437 mark. If Lawlar steps into an everyday role at third base or shortstop (pushing Geraldo Perdomo to the hot corner), Candelario could see action at designated hitter.

That production would also be welcome for the Angels, although their internal options have lengthier track records than do Arizona’s players. The Halos owe Anthony Rendon $114MM over the next three seasons. That could lead the organization to shy away from a notable free agent investment for another third baseman (although Candelario obviously won’t come close to Rendon’s $245MM contract). The Halos have Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo to split time between second and third base, perhaps taking extra at-bats if Rendon again misses time to injury.

Candelario also has experience at first base, where things are a little unsettled for the Halos. Nolan Schanuel held the job for the final couple months of the season. That he managed a .402 on-base percentage against MLB pitching within weeks of being drafted out of Florida Atlantic is remarkable. Yet Schanuel has all of 22 career minor league games and didn’t provide any kind of power in his first big league look. It’s not out of the question he could require additional time against minor league pitching. The Halos’ outlook at DH, of course, is dependent on the Shohei Ohtani decision.

A match with the Reds would likely be conditional on Cincinnati making a trade. The Reds already have an infield glut. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte are all in the corner infield mix. Jonathan India and Matt McLain project as the starting middle infield. Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall cited a lack of playing time at first base as a factor in declining their option on Joey Votto, although the $13MM difference between the option value and the buyout was surely the biggest factor.

Starting pitching is the top priority for the Cincinnati front office. That could be accomplished by dealing away a position player. Speaking in generalities, Krall told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic that the Reds have had conversations about dealing from their talented collection of bats.

Tyler Gilbert, Austin Adams Elect Free Agency

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve outrighted pitchers Tyler Gilbert and Austin Adams off the 40-man roster. The moves were necessary to create space for the reinstatement of five players from the 60-day injured list. Arizona’s 40-man is at capacity with the offseason underway, while Gilbert and Adams have each chosen free agency.

Gilbert is best known for throwing a no-hitter in his first career start (fourth appearance overall) back in 2021. The former sixth-round draftee has pitched in each of the last three big league campaigns, totaling 91 2/3 innings. He owns a 4.32 ERA, including a 5.19 mark over 17 1/3 frames out of the bullpen this year. Gilbert struck out a career-high 26.4% of opponents while averaging a personal-best 92.5 MPH on his fastball. That wasn’t enough to hold his spot on Arizona’s roster but should aid him in landing a minor league opportunity elsewhere.

Adams, 32, has 132 MLB games between four clubs. He inked a minor league contract with Arizona last offseason and reached the majors in May. The right-hander came out of the bullpen on 24 occasions for Torey Lovullo. He allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 17 1/3 innings, walking eight and hitting five batters. Adams punched out 22 behind a decent 12.1% swinging strike rate. While the slider specialist has always flashed the ability to miss bats, below-average control has led to plenty of walks and a staggering number of hits batsmen (including an MLB-leading 24 in just 52 2/3 innings two seasons ago).

The veteran hurler’s time in the desert ended on a sour note. Adams broke his right ankle when he was hit by a Joc Pederson comebacker in early August. That ended his season and made it a virtual lock Arizona would cut him loose rather than retain him on a projected $1.1MM arbitration salary.

Diamondbacks Extend Torey Lovullo Through 2026

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The Diamondbacks have signed manager Torey Lovullo to a contract extension that will keep him at the helm in Arizona through the 2026 season, sources revealed to reporters (including Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Considering the team’s success in 2023 – capped off with a National League pennant – it’s no surprise that the Diamondbacks’ front office wants the skipper to stick around for the foreseeable future. Lovullo has been the D-backs manager since 2017.

Funnily enough, this is the second extension Lovullo has signed this year alone. As the 2023 campaign began, his contract was set to expire at the end of the season. However, in early June, when the D-backs boasted the best record in the National League, the skipper signed a one-year extension; evidently, the front office didn’t want a lame duck manager leading the team on a playoff run.

Earlier in the offseason, the Diamondbacks signed general manager Mike Hazen to an extension that runs through the 2028 campaign, with a club option for 2029. They also gave new contracts to executives Amiel Sawdaye and Mike Fitzgerald. Now, with Lovullo under contract for the next three seasons, the team has extended all of the top baseball decision-makers who helped the team win their first NL pennant in over twenty years.

Diamondbacks Notes: Turner, Pitching, Hazen, Deadline

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Justin Turner is “atop [the Diamondbacks’] wish list” this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.  It isn’t any surprise that the D’Backs would be in pursuit of Turner, as the team also had interest in the veteran infielder last winter, and Turner’s stock is quite high after a successful year with the Red Sox.

Turner hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers over 626 plate appearances with Boston last season, as he hasn’t shown much sign of decline even though he turns 39 later this month.  He’s back on the free agent market after declining his player option to remain with the Sox, and seems likely to land another multi-year contract even at his advanced age.  Anything beyond two guaranteed years might be a bit of a reach, however, which perhaps keeps Turner within the Diamondbacks’ price range.

Several contenders or would-be contenders are likely to check in on Turner this winter, so the reigning NL champion D’Backs won’t be alone in their pursuit.  Playing in Phoenix would also bring Turner a bit closer to his home in Southern California, and if Turner had designs on being a regular third baseman again, the Diamondbacks have an opening at the hot corner since Evan Longoria is also a free agent.  Turner would probably be in the lineup most every day as either a third baseman, designated hitter, or occasional first baseman if Christian Walker is at DH or getting a rest day.  When Turner isn’t at third base, Gerardo Perdomo or Emmanuel Rivera would be on hand to man the position.

Signing Turner would also add a right-handed bat to Arizona’s lineup, and GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that keeping the lineup balanced is “probably going to be an area that we’re going to need to address again.”  Free agents Longoria, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Tommy Pham all hit from the right side, leaving the Snakes a little heavy on lefty swingers and switch-hitters.  Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is a right-handed hitter who is expected to get a larger role after making his MLB debut in 2023, though installing Lawlar as the everyday shortstop might be a little bold, and it might be dependent on how the D’Backs address the third base situation.

Beyond another hitter or two, Hazen stressed that his team will be looking to add some experienced rotation help.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were the cornerstones of an otherwise subpar rotation, as most of the younger arms had some growing pains, veteran Zach Davies was injured and mostly ineffective, and Madison Bumgarner was released entirely after continued struggles.

Rookie Brandon Pfaadt established himself during the playoffs, so he’ll be penciled into one spot along with Gallen and Kelly.  That leaves room for another seasoned pitcher within the rotation’s top four, and Hazen felt the Snakes were simply lacking in this department during the postseason, most notably in their now-infamous bullpen game in Game 4 of the World Series.

“Having veterans in that rotation matter.  I think you looked across the aisle here in this series and [the Rangers] had more veteran starting pitchers than we did,” Hazen said.

To this end, Hazen had some regrets over not already addressing this need last summer.  The general manager said he “chased every starting pitcher in the free market” at the deadline, and noted that teams often asked for Pfaadt and Alek Thomas in trade demands.  While Hazen had no intention of moving either of those players, “were there other avenues that we could have pushed, by adding more prospects in the deals where it didn’t include those guys?  Where I should have gone down that route?  I don’t know.  I don’t know the answer to those things.  But I know I didn’t get a starting pitcher.  And that’s on me.”

Diamondbacks Decline Mutual Option On Mark Melancon

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The Diamondbacks have declined their side of a mutual option with veteran right-hander Mark Melancon, per a report from Steve Gilbert of MLB.com this morning. The option was valued at $5MM, but the Diamondbacks will instead opt to pay Melancon a $2MM buyout on the option. The decision hardly comes as a surprise, both because mutual options are very rarely picked up and also because the 38-year-old righty did not pitch in 2023 due to a shoulder strain.

This was Melancon’s second season in Arizona, as the veteran righty initially signed with the club on a two-year, $14MM deal prior to the 2022 season on the heels of a resurgent 2021 campaign that saw him post a 2.23 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work while leading the majors with 39 saves as the primary closer in San Diego. Melancon figured to fill the closer role for Arizona in 2022, but struggled to find his footing with the club, ultimately posting a 4.66 ERA (13% below average by measure of ERA+) and 4.20 FIP with 18 saves as the club lost 88 games.

Perhaps even more concerning than the downturn in results was Melancon’s plummeting strikeout rate. While Melancon was never much of a strikeout artist throughout his career, posting strikeout rates above 25% just twice in his career, his 22.3% strikeout rate in 2021 was an almost perfect reflection of his 22.2% strikeout rate in his career to that point. Melancon’s punch outs plummeted in 2022, however, as he struck out just 14.2% of batters faced during his age-37 season, the lowest mark of his career outside of a 13-game cup of coffee he received with the Yankees as a rookie in 2009.

On the heels of a down season in 2022 and a lost season in 2023, it’s fair to wonder what’s next for Melancon. The veteran righty has had one of the strongest relief careers of his generation, with a career ERA of just 2.94 and 262 saves in 732 career games. At the same time, he’ll turn 39 on Opening Day 2024 and last pitched effectively when he was 36 years old. Given the constant need for bullpen depth around the majors, it seems likely that Melancon will be able to find a job this offseason should he wish to continue his career, but it seems likely he’ll be relegated to minor league deals given his lack of recent track record and uncertain health situation.

As for the Diamondbacks, the club has a fairly solid bullpen nucleus ahead of the 2024 campaign, with closer Paul Sewald backed up by the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Andrew Saalfrank. That being said, it’s certainly feasible the club could look to bolster its bullpen depth given their 4.22 bullpen ERA in 2022, which ranked just 18th in the majors last year. Plenty of right-handed relievers figure to be available this season if Arizona is interested in replacing Melancon on the depth chart, with the likes of Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez chief among them.

Ian Kennedy To Retire

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Right-hander Ian Kennedy is retiring, he told Evan Thompson of Sport Relay during last night’s World Series celebration. While Kennedy indicated he had made the decision that this would be his final season going into 2023, he acknowledged “there’s no better way to go out” than as a member of a Rangers team that clinched the franchise’s first title.

The Yankees selected Kennedy in the first round of the 2006 draft. The USC product reached the majors a little more than a year later, debuting as a September call-up in ’07. He saw limited action in the Bronx over the next two-plus seasons. During the 2009-10 offseason, the Yanks dealt Kennedy to the Diamondbacks as part of the three-team blockbuster that moved Max Scherzer to Detroit and Curtis Granderson to New York.

Kennedy spent three and a half seasons as a key piece of the Arizona rotation. He led the National League with 21 wins while pitching to a 2.88 ERA across 222 innings in 2011, securing a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. At the 2013 deadline, the Snakes flipped Kennedy to the Padres for Joe Thatcher. He worked out of the San Diego rotation for two and a half seasons, eating around 200 innings annually with a combined 3.97 ERA.

Going into 2016, the Royals signed the hurler to a five-year, $70MM free agent pact. After posting a 3.68 ERA across 33 starts during his first season in K.C., Kennedy struggled in 2017-18. He reinvented himself as a closer in 2019, saving 30 games while posting a 3.41 ERA. He was hit hard in the shortened season and landed with the Rangers on a minor league pact in 2021.

Kennedy had a strong rebound showing in Texas, emerging as one of the better rental relievers on that summer’s trade market. The Rangers dealt him alongside Kyle Gibson to the Phillies. He played out the stretch with Philadelphia, then returned to Arizona on a $4.75MM free agent deal. Kennedy’s return to the desert didn’t go well. He re-signed with the Rangers for 2023, logging 16 1/3 frames over a pair of stints. While he wasn’t on the active roster for Texas’ playoff run, he capped off his playing days with a ring.

It was a storybook punctuation to a 17-year run in the majors. Kennedy logged a little over 1900 innings between six teams, posting a 4.16 ERA. He struck out 1775 hitters, won 104 games and collected 66 saves after his late-career bullpen move. According to Baseball Reference, he banked over $101MM in career earnings. MLBTR congratulates Kennedy on an excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Ineligible For Qualifying Offer

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With the World Series now over, clubs have five days to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. The Diamondbacks were thought to be facing a decision on outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel’s current contract prohibits him from receiving a QO.

Normally, players are eligible for a qualifying offer at the end of a season if they spent that entire campaign with just one club and have not previously received a QO. That made Gurriel a borderline candidate to receive a QO, which is set to be around $20.5MM this year. But today’s news indicates that won’t be on the table after all.

Players coming to the majors from foreign leagues often have stipulations in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the rules that typically apply to other players. One of the more common clauses is that players coming from Cuba or Asia can become free agents when the contract expires, even if they are shy of the standard six years of service time normally required to automatically hit the open market. It appears Gurriel’s contract also has a clause preventing him from being saddled with a qualifying offer.

Now 30, Gurriel played in Cuba from 2010 to 2016 but defected with his brother Yuli Gurriel before signing a seven-year, $22MM deal with the Blue Jays. He spent all of 2017 in the minors and had optional assignments in 2018 and 2019 as well. That meant that he accrued between five and six years of service time over the seven years of that deal, but the language in the contract allowed him to qualify for free agency regardless.

Prior to the final year of the deal, the Jays traded him and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Daulton Varsho. Gurriel had a solid season for the Snakes, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .261/.309/.463 for a wRC+ of 106. The reviews on his left field glovework were mixed, with Defensive Runs Saved giving him an excellent +14 while Outs Above Average had a more modest +1. That led to a tally of 3.0 wins above replacement from Baseball Reference and 2.1 from FanGraphs.

It would have been an interesting call for the Diamondbacks whether to issue a QO or not. A salary of $20.5MM for a solid but not elite everyday player is arguably an overpay, especially for a club that’s not a huge spender, but it wouldn’t have been egregious. That’s a moot point now as his contract won’t allow them to consider the QO at all.

This revelation benefits Gurriel, as receiving a qualifying offer usually harms a player’s earning power in free agency. Signing a player who rejects a QO means the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and, in some cases, a reduction of their international bonus pool limit. Gurriel may have been able to enter free agency without a QO regardless but it’s now apparent that the language of his contract guarantees it. He is now free agent and will be one of the better bats available in a position player market headlined by Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernández, Matt Chapman and Jeimer Candelario.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks overcame a midseason slump to play their way into the National League’s final playoff spot. They followed up an 84-78 regular season showing with a surprising run. That ended in disappointing fashion, as the Snakes dropped a five-game World Series to the Rangers. They’re now on to the offseason as they take their first steps in trying to get back to the Fall Classic.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Corbin Carroll, LF: $105MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option)
  • Ketel Marte, 2B: $62MM through 2027 (including buyout of ’28 club option)
  • Merrill Kelly, RHP: $9MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Miguel Castro, RHP: $5MM through 2024*
  • Scott McGough, RHP: $3.75MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 mutual option)
  • Jace Peterson, 3B: $3MM through 2024 (A’s paying down $2MM of Peterson’s $5MM salary)

* Castro’s vesting option is conditional on passing end-of-season physical

Option Decisions

  • Team and RHP Mark Melancon hold $5MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $51.3MM
Total future commitments: $204.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adams, Lewis, Mantiply

Free Agents

Arizona faces a couple immediate questions with the turnaround to the offseason. They’ll make the easy decision to buy out their end of a $5MM mutual option on Mark Melancon, who missed the entire season after a Spring Training shoulder strain. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout to conclude a free agent deal that didn’t work out.

There’s another question the front office will need to decide as it sets its offseason agenda: whether they’ll try to retain Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a multi-year contract. The righty-hitting left fielder had a strong season in the desert. The third piece in the Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno trade, Gurriel turned in a .261/.309/.463 batting line with a career-high 24 home runs over 592 plate appearances. He paired that with an elite +14 Defensive Runs Saved in 778 left field innings, although Statcast’s defensive metric pegged him closer to league average.

Baseball Reference pegged his contributions around three wins above replacement, while he typically falls in the 2-3 WAR range. He’s a solid everyday left fielder and could find a three- or four-year deal. The D-Backs opened the 2023 campaign with a player payroll around $116MM — the #21 figure in the majors, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they don’t want to meet Gurriel’s asking price, they’ll likely look for external corner outfield help. Deadline acquisition Tommy Pham is also headed to free agency.

Arizona likely has two outfield spots secured. Corbin Carroll turned in a Rookie of the Year season in the first year of his eight-year extension. He’s a true franchise building block. Alek Thomas had a mediocre regular season offensively, reaching base at a meager .273 clip. He hit well in October and brings plus center field defense (error in last night’s game notwithstanding) and baserunning to the table. Between his secondary skills and strong prospect reputation, he’ll probably get the first look in center field.

The rest of the outfield is uncertain. Jake McCarthy had a disappointing follow-up to his surprisingly strong rookie year. While Dominic Fletcher hit well in a limited sample, he’s a 26-year-old with 28 major league games under his belt. Neither former 7th overall pick Pavin Smith nor 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis made much of an impact. They could each be let go. Jorge Barrosa is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make his MLB debut.

Arizona isn’t going to be in the Cody Bellinger mix. Any other free agent outfielder could fit within their payroll window. Including projected salaries for their group of arbitration-eligible players, the Snakes have around $86MM in commitments for next year. That leaves around $30MM before reaching this past season’s Opening Day mark. They’re around $50MM shy of the franchise’s approximate $131MM record. While they’re six years removed from that level, it stands to reason they could push near or past those heights after hosting seven playoff games and with a goal of backing up this year’s success.

Aside from Bellinger, the top free agent outfielder is Teoscar Hernández. He could require draft pick forfeiture as a potential qualifying offer recipient and might land a four-year deal. Gurriel, Jorge Soler and KBO star Jung Hoo Lee are among the next tier down. On the trade front, players like Alex Verdugo (projected $9.2MM salary), Max Kepler ($10MM) and Anthony Santander (projected at $12.7MM) may be available as rental options.

Arizona has a strong infield in place. Christian Walker is an underrated contributor at first base. A $12.7MM projection for his final year of arbitration isn’t insignificant, but there’s enough payroll room that the D-Backs can accommodate it to retain a Gold Glove defender with 35-homer potential. Ketel Marte had another great season at second base.

The left side of the infield is a little less settled, though it’s not for lack of options. Arizona released longtime shortstop Nick Ahmed in September, a move made in tandem with the promotion of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. The latter didn’t get much action in the postseason, with Arizona relying on a collection of Geraldo Perdomo, Emmanuel Rivera and Evan Longoria between shortstop and third base.

Perdomo’s offense fell off in the second half, but he had an All-Star first couple months and a strong postseason. Neither Rivera nor Jace Peterson offer much offensively. Longoria is a free agent, while Lawlar only has 32 games above Double-A.

There’s enough uncertainty at third base that the front office could add a veteran. Perhaps that’s a reunion with Longoria should he continue playing. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option with the Red Sox. While he’s not an everyday third baseman at this stage of his career, he could see some action there while logging the bulk of the designated hitter reps.

If Lawlar takes the third base job (or plays shortstop, pushing Perdomo to the hot corner), a Longoria or Turner type could move fully to DH. Old friend J.D. Martinez obviously isn’t an option at third base, but he’s a possibility if the Snakes are content to bring in a DH-only bat to replace the offense with Gurriel, Longoria and Pham hitting free agency.

Arizona has one of the best young catchers in the game with Moreno under club control through 2028. Bringing in a low-cost backup who pushes José Herrera down the depth chart is a possibility. Tucker Barnhart, Martín Maldonado and Eric Haase are free agents.

While there are a few questions on the position player side, the biggest issue for the front office is filling the back of the rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make for a strong top two. Brandon Pfaadt had a tough regular season as a rookie before an impressive run in the playoffs. Neither Ryne Nelson nor Tommy Henry (the latter of whom missed the second half with an elbow injury) has established himself as more than a depth starter. Slade Cecconi has made only four MLB starts.

Adding one or two pitchers to fill out the rotation should be the top priority for GM Mike Hazen and his staff. The D-Backs aren’t likely to meet a potential $200MM+ asking price on Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There’s enough spending room they could be a factor on anyone else in the class, although a run at Aaron Nola or Jordan Montgomery would require easily their biggest investment since their surprising $206.5MM strike for Zack Greinke eight years ago.

Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez could be available for similar outlays to the $85MM guarantee the Snakes awarded Madison Bumgarner in 2019. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen (a reported deadline target of Arizona’s this past summer) are among the middle tier veterans. Lucas Giolito is a volatile option after a rough second half, while Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are pure rebound candidates.

On the trade front, Shane Bieber, Nick Pivetta and Adrian Houser could be on the move as they’re a year from free agency. Cal Quantrill, José Urquidy (with whom pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar from his time with the Astros) and Spencer Turnbull are multi-year trade possibilities.

In recent offseasons, the bullpen has been a focus for Arizona. While that might not be as strong a priority after the deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald, there’s still room to deepen the setup corps. Kevin Ginkel has emerged as a quality eighth inning arm. Andrew Saalfrank flashed impressive stuff as a rookie. Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Kyle Nelson have middle relief spots but are coming off middling seasons. That’s also true of 2022 All-Star Joe Mantiply, who dropped behind Saalfrank as the top lefty option in the playoffs.

It’s hard to envision Arizona making a serious push for Josh Hader given their needs on the rotation front. Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are free agent setup types who’ll command multi-year deals. If the D-Backs want to bring in a left-hander, Matt Moore and Wandy Peralta are among the options.

Aside from supplementary acquisitions, the D-Backs could devote some of their long-term payroll room to extension negotiations. Arizona holds two more seasons of arbitration control on Gallen, who is on track to hit free agency before his age-30 campaign. He’d surely beat the five years and $64.5MM that Kyle Freeland received in the same service class. Logan Webb landed a five-year, $90MM guarantee in an extension with the Giants that went into effect beginning in his 4-5 service year, setting a potential benchmark for Gallen’s camp.

Moreno is the other top extension possibility. He has more MLB success than Keibert Ruiz did when he inked an eight-year, $50MM deal with the Nationals in the same service bracket. It’s possible a guarantee in that range that only buys out two or three free agent years — as opposed to the potential five seasons covered by the Ruiz extension — is mutually agreeable.

While it remains to be seen if the Snakes can get a long-term deal done with any of their players, one extension seems quite likely to be hammered out. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last month the D-Backs were likely to award an extension to manager Torey Lovullo. Arizona already signed Hazen through 2028. A similar term for the seventh-year skipper — who is currently under contract through next season — could be on the docket.

This year didn’t conclude with the championship that everyone in the Chase Field offices was seeking. Their relatively surprising playoff performance reinforced that they’ve moved into a win-now window. They’ll face challenges from their bigger-spending competitors in the NL West. The D-Backs are no longer upstarts. Beginning today, they set out to prove they have staying power.

Note: The original version of this post listed Lourdes Gurriel as a qualifying offer candidate. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel is ineligible to receive the QO under the terms of his contract.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Diamondbacks-specific chat on 11-2-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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