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Diamondbacks Extend Torey Lovullo Through 2026

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The Diamondbacks have signed manager Torey Lovullo to a contract extension that will keep him at the helm in Arizona through the 2026 season, sources revealed to reporters (including Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Considering the team’s success in 2023 – capped off with a National League pennant – it’s no surprise that the Diamondbacks’ front office wants the skipper to stick around for the foreseeable future. Lovullo has been the D-backs manager since 2017.

Funnily enough, this is the second extension Lovullo has signed this year alone. As the 2023 campaign began, his contract was set to expire at the end of the season. However, in early June, when the D-backs boasted the best record in the National League, the skipper signed a one-year extension; evidently, the front office didn’t want a lame duck manager leading the team on a playoff run.

Earlier in the offseason, the Diamondbacks signed general manager Mike Hazen to an extension that runs through the 2028 campaign, with a club option for 2029. They also gave new contracts to executives Amiel Sawdaye and Mike Fitzgerald. Now, with Lovullo under contract for the next three seasons, the team has extended all of the top baseball decision-makers who helped the team win their first NL pennant in over twenty years.

Diamondbacks Notes: Turner, Pitching, Hazen, Deadline

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Justin Turner is “atop [the Diamondbacks’] wish list” this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.  It isn’t any surprise that the D’Backs would be in pursuit of Turner, as the team also had interest in the veteran infielder last winter, and Turner’s stock is quite high after a successful year with the Red Sox.

Turner hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers over 626 plate appearances with Boston last season, as he hasn’t shown much sign of decline even though he turns 39 later this month.  He’s back on the free agent market after declining his player option to remain with the Sox, and seems likely to land another multi-year contract even at his advanced age.  Anything beyond two guaranteed years might be a bit of a reach, however, which perhaps keeps Turner within the Diamondbacks’ price range.

Several contenders or would-be contenders are likely to check in on Turner this winter, so the reigning NL champion D’Backs won’t be alone in their pursuit.  Playing in Phoenix would also bring Turner a bit closer to his home in Southern California, and if Turner had designs on being a regular third baseman again, the Diamondbacks have an opening at the hot corner since Evan Longoria is also a free agent.  Turner would probably be in the lineup most every day as either a third baseman, designated hitter, or occasional first baseman if Christian Walker is at DH or getting a rest day.  When Turner isn’t at third base, Gerardo Perdomo or Emmanuel Rivera would be on hand to man the position.

Signing Turner would also add a right-handed bat to Arizona’s lineup, and GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that keeping the lineup balanced is “probably going to be an area that we’re going to need to address again.”  Free agents Longoria, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Tommy Pham all hit from the right side, leaving the Snakes a little heavy on lefty swingers and switch-hitters.  Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is a right-handed hitter who is expected to get a larger role after making his MLB debut in 2023, though installing Lawlar as the everyday shortstop might be a little bold, and it might be dependent on how the D’Backs address the third base situation.

Beyond another hitter or two, Hazen stressed that his team will be looking to add some experienced rotation help.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were the cornerstones of an otherwise subpar rotation, as most of the younger arms had some growing pains, veteran Zach Davies was injured and mostly ineffective, and Madison Bumgarner was released entirely after continued struggles.

Rookie Brandon Pfaadt established himself during the playoffs, so he’ll be penciled into one spot along with Gallen and Kelly.  That leaves room for another seasoned pitcher within the rotation’s top four, and Hazen felt the Snakes were simply lacking in this department during the postseason, most notably in their now-infamous bullpen game in Game 4 of the World Series.

“Having veterans in that rotation matter.  I think you looked across the aisle here in this series and [the Rangers] had more veteran starting pitchers than we did,” Hazen said.

To this end, Hazen had some regrets over not already addressing this need last summer.  The general manager said he “chased every starting pitcher in the free market” at the deadline, and noted that teams often asked for Pfaadt and Alek Thomas in trade demands.  While Hazen had no intention of moving either of those players, “were there other avenues that we could have pushed, by adding more prospects in the deals where it didn’t include those guys?  Where I should have gone down that route?  I don’t know.  I don’t know the answer to those things.  But I know I didn’t get a starting pitcher.  And that’s on me.”

Diamondbacks Decline Mutual Option On Mark Melancon

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The Diamondbacks have declined their side of a mutual option with veteran right-hander Mark Melancon, per a report from Steve Gilbert of MLB.com this morning. The option was valued at $5MM, but the Diamondbacks will instead opt to pay Melancon a $2MM buyout on the option. The decision hardly comes as a surprise, both because mutual options are very rarely picked up and also because the 38-year-old righty did not pitch in 2023 due to a shoulder strain.

This was Melancon’s second season in Arizona, as the veteran righty initially signed with the club on a two-year, $14MM deal prior to the 2022 season on the heels of a resurgent 2021 campaign that saw him post a 2.23 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work while leading the majors with 39 saves as the primary closer in San Diego. Melancon figured to fill the closer role for Arizona in 2022, but struggled to find his footing with the club, ultimately posting a 4.66 ERA (13% below average by measure of ERA+) and 4.20 FIP with 18 saves as the club lost 88 games.

Perhaps even more concerning than the downturn in results was Melancon’s plummeting strikeout rate. While Melancon was never much of a strikeout artist throughout his career, posting strikeout rates above 25% just twice in his career, his 22.3% strikeout rate in 2021 was an almost perfect reflection of his 22.2% strikeout rate in his career to that point. Melancon’s punch outs plummeted in 2022, however, as he struck out just 14.2% of batters faced during his age-37 season, the lowest mark of his career outside of a 13-game cup of coffee he received with the Yankees as a rookie in 2009.

On the heels of a down season in 2022 and a lost season in 2023, it’s fair to wonder what’s next for Melancon. The veteran righty has had one of the strongest relief careers of his generation, with a career ERA of just 2.94 and 262 saves in 732 career games. At the same time, he’ll turn 39 on Opening Day 2024 and last pitched effectively when he was 36 years old. Given the constant need for bullpen depth around the majors, it seems likely that Melancon will be able to find a job this offseason should he wish to continue his career, but it seems likely he’ll be relegated to minor league deals given his lack of recent track record and uncertain health situation.

As for the Diamondbacks, the club has a fairly solid bullpen nucleus ahead of the 2024 campaign, with closer Paul Sewald backed up by the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Andrew Saalfrank. That being said, it’s certainly feasible the club could look to bolster its bullpen depth given their 4.22 bullpen ERA in 2022, which ranked just 18th in the majors last year. Plenty of right-handed relievers figure to be available this season if Arizona is interested in replacing Melancon on the depth chart, with the likes of Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez chief among them.

Ian Kennedy To Retire

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Right-hander Ian Kennedy is retiring, he told Evan Thompson of Sport Relay during last night’s World Series celebration. While Kennedy indicated he had made the decision that this would be his final season going into 2023, he acknowledged “there’s no better way to go out” than as a member of a Rangers team that clinched the franchise’s first title.

The Yankees selected Kennedy in the first round of the 2006 draft. The USC product reached the majors a little more than a year later, debuting as a September call-up in ’07. He saw limited action in the Bronx over the next two-plus seasons. During the 2009-10 offseason, the Yanks dealt Kennedy to the Diamondbacks as part of the three-team blockbuster that moved Max Scherzer to Detroit and Curtis Granderson to New York.

Kennedy spent three and a half seasons as a key piece of the Arizona rotation. He led the National League with 21 wins while pitching to a 2.88 ERA across 222 innings in 2011, securing a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. At the 2013 deadline, the Snakes flipped Kennedy to the Padres for Joe Thatcher. He worked out of the San Diego rotation for two and a half seasons, eating around 200 innings annually with a combined 3.97 ERA.

Going into 2016, the Royals signed the hurler to a five-year, $70MM free agent pact. After posting a 3.68 ERA across 33 starts during his first season in K.C., Kennedy struggled in 2017-18. He reinvented himself as a closer in 2019, saving 30 games while posting a 3.41 ERA. He was hit hard in the shortened season and landed with the Rangers on a minor league pact in 2021.

Kennedy had a strong rebound showing in Texas, emerging as one of the better rental relievers on that summer’s trade market. The Rangers dealt him alongside Kyle Gibson to the Phillies. He played out the stretch with Philadelphia, then returned to Arizona on a $4.75MM free agent deal. Kennedy’s return to the desert didn’t go well. He re-signed with the Rangers for 2023, logging 16 1/3 frames over a pair of stints. While he wasn’t on the active roster for Texas’ playoff run, he capped off his playing days with a ring.

It was a storybook punctuation to a 17-year run in the majors. Kennedy logged a little over 1900 innings between six teams, posting a 4.16 ERA. He struck out 1775 hitters, won 104 games and collected 66 saves after his late-career bullpen move. According to Baseball Reference, he banked over $101MM in career earnings. MLBTR congratulates Kennedy on an excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Ineligible For Qualifying Offer

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With the World Series now over, clubs have five days to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. The Diamondbacks were thought to be facing a decision on outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel’s current contract prohibits him from receiving a QO.

Normally, players are eligible for a qualifying offer at the end of a season if they spent that entire campaign with just one club and have not previously received a QO. That made Gurriel a borderline candidate to receive a QO, which is set to be around $20.5MM this year. But today’s news indicates that won’t be on the table after all.

Players coming to the majors from foreign leagues often have stipulations in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the rules that typically apply to other players. One of the more common clauses is that players coming from Cuba or Asia can become free agents when the contract expires, even if they are shy of the standard six years of service time normally required to automatically hit the open market. It appears Gurriel’s contract also has a clause preventing him from being saddled with a qualifying offer.

Now 30, Gurriel played in Cuba from 2010 to 2016 but defected with his brother Yuli Gurriel before signing a seven-year, $22MM deal with the Blue Jays. He spent all of 2017 in the minors and had optional assignments in 2018 and 2019 as well. That meant that he accrued between five and six years of service time over the seven years of that deal, but the language in the contract allowed him to qualify for free agency regardless.

Prior to the final year of the deal, the Jays traded him and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Daulton Varsho. Gurriel had a solid season for the Snakes, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .261/.309/.463 for a wRC+ of 106. The reviews on his left field glovework were mixed, with Defensive Runs Saved giving him an excellent +14 while Outs Above Average had a more modest +1. That led to a tally of 3.0 wins above replacement from Baseball Reference and 2.1 from FanGraphs.

It would have been an interesting call for the Diamondbacks whether to issue a QO or not. A salary of $20.5MM for a solid but not elite everyday player is arguably an overpay, especially for a club that’s not a huge spender, but it wouldn’t have been egregious. That’s a moot point now as his contract won’t allow them to consider the QO at all.

This revelation benefits Gurriel, as receiving a qualifying offer usually harms a player’s earning power in free agency. Signing a player who rejects a QO means the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and, in some cases, a reduction of their international bonus pool limit. Gurriel may have been able to enter free agency without a QO regardless but it’s now apparent that the language of his contract guarantees it. He is now free agent and will be one of the better bats available in a position player market headlined by Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernández, Matt Chapman and Jeimer Candelario.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks overcame a midseason slump to play their way into the National League’s final playoff spot. They followed up an 84-78 regular season showing with a surprising run. That ended in disappointing fashion, as the Snakes dropped a five-game World Series to the Rangers. They’re now on to the offseason as they take their first steps in trying to get back to the Fall Classic.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Corbin Carroll, LF: $105MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option)
  • Ketel Marte, 2B: $62MM through 2027 (including buyout of ’28 club option)
  • Merrill Kelly, RHP: $9MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Miguel Castro, RHP: $5MM through 2024*
  • Scott McGough, RHP: $3.75MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 mutual option)
  • Jace Peterson, 3B: $3MM through 2024 (A’s paying down $2MM of Peterson’s $5MM salary)

* Castro’s vesting option is conditional on passing end-of-season physical

Option Decisions

  • Team and RHP Mark Melancon hold $5MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $51.3MM
Total future commitments: $204.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adams, Lewis, Mantiply

Free Agents

Arizona faces a couple immediate questions with the turnaround to the offseason. They’ll make the easy decision to buy out their end of a $5MM mutual option on Mark Melancon, who missed the entire season after a Spring Training shoulder strain. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout to conclude a free agent deal that didn’t work out.

There’s another question the front office will need to decide as it sets its offseason agenda: whether they’ll try to retain Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a multi-year contract. The righty-hitting left fielder had a strong season in the desert. The third piece in the Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno trade, Gurriel turned in a .261/.309/.463 batting line with a career-high 24 home runs over 592 plate appearances. He paired that with an elite +14 Defensive Runs Saved in 778 left field innings, although Statcast’s defensive metric pegged him closer to league average.

Baseball Reference pegged his contributions around three wins above replacement, while he typically falls in the 2-3 WAR range. He’s a solid everyday left fielder and could find a three- or four-year deal. The D-Backs opened the 2023 campaign with a player payroll around $116MM — the #21 figure in the majors, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they don’t want to meet Gurriel’s asking price, they’ll likely look for external corner outfield help. Deadline acquisition Tommy Pham is also headed to free agency.

Arizona likely has two outfield spots secured. Corbin Carroll turned in a Rookie of the Year season in the first year of his eight-year extension. He’s a true franchise building block. Alek Thomas had a mediocre regular season offensively, reaching base at a meager .273 clip. He hit well in October and brings plus center field defense (error in last night’s game notwithstanding) and baserunning to the table. Between his secondary skills and strong prospect reputation, he’ll probably get the first look in center field.

The rest of the outfield is uncertain. Jake McCarthy had a disappointing follow-up to his surprisingly strong rookie year. While Dominic Fletcher hit well in a limited sample, he’s a 26-year-old with 28 major league games under his belt. Neither former 7th overall pick Pavin Smith nor 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis made much of an impact. They could each be let go. Jorge Barrosa is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make his MLB debut.

Arizona isn’t going to be in the Cody Bellinger mix. Any other free agent outfielder could fit within their payroll window. Including projected salaries for their group of arbitration-eligible players, the Snakes have around $86MM in commitments for next year. That leaves around $30MM before reaching this past season’s Opening Day mark. They’re around $50MM shy of the franchise’s approximate $131MM record. While they’re six years removed from that level, it stands to reason they could push near or past those heights after hosting seven playoff games and with a goal of backing up this year’s success.

Aside from Bellinger, the top free agent outfielder is Teoscar Hernández. He could require draft pick forfeiture as a potential qualifying offer recipient and might land a four-year deal. Gurriel, Jorge Soler and KBO star Jung Hoo Lee are among the next tier down. On the trade front, players like Alex Verdugo (projected $9.2MM salary), Max Kepler ($10MM) and Anthony Santander (projected at $12.7MM) may be available as rental options.

Arizona has a strong infield in place. Christian Walker is an underrated contributor at first base. A $12.7MM projection for his final year of arbitration isn’t insignificant, but there’s enough payroll room that the D-Backs can accommodate it to retain a Gold Glove defender with 35-homer potential. Ketel Marte had another great season at second base.

The left side of the infield is a little less settled, though it’s not for lack of options. Arizona released longtime shortstop Nick Ahmed in September, a move made in tandem with the promotion of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. The latter didn’t get much action in the postseason, with Arizona relying on a collection of Geraldo Perdomo, Emmanuel Rivera and Evan Longoria between shortstop and third base.

Perdomo’s offense fell off in the second half, but he had an All-Star first couple months and a strong postseason. Neither Rivera nor Jace Peterson offer much offensively. Longoria is a free agent, while Lawlar only has 32 games above Double-A.

There’s enough uncertainty at third base that the front office could add a veteran. Perhaps that’s a reunion with Longoria should he continue playing. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option with the Red Sox. While he’s not an everyday third baseman at this stage of his career, he could see some action there while logging the bulk of the designated hitter reps.

If Lawlar takes the third base job (or plays shortstop, pushing Perdomo to the hot corner), a Longoria or Turner type could move fully to DH. Old friend J.D. Martinez obviously isn’t an option at third base, but he’s a possibility if the Snakes are content to bring in a DH-only bat to replace the offense with Gurriel, Longoria and Pham hitting free agency.

Arizona has one of the best young catchers in the game with Moreno under club control through 2028. Bringing in a low-cost backup who pushes José Herrera down the depth chart is a possibility. Tucker Barnhart, Martín Maldonado and Eric Haase are free agents.

While there are a few questions on the position player side, the biggest issue for the front office is filling the back of the rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make for a strong top two. Brandon Pfaadt had a tough regular season as a rookie before an impressive run in the playoffs. Neither Ryne Nelson nor Tommy Henry (the latter of whom missed the second half with an elbow injury) has established himself as more than a depth starter. Slade Cecconi has made only four MLB starts.

Adding one or two pitchers to fill out the rotation should be the top priority for GM Mike Hazen and his staff. The D-Backs aren’t likely to meet a potential $200MM+ asking price on Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There’s enough spending room they could be a factor on anyone else in the class, although a run at Aaron Nola or Jordan Montgomery would require easily their biggest investment since their surprising $206.5MM strike for Zack Greinke eight years ago.

Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez could be available for similar outlays to the $85MM guarantee the Snakes awarded Madison Bumgarner in 2019. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen (a reported deadline target of Arizona’s this past summer) are among the middle tier veterans. Lucas Giolito is a volatile option after a rough second half, while Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are pure rebound candidates.

On the trade front, Shane Bieber, Nick Pivetta and Adrian Houser could be on the move as they’re a year from free agency. Cal Quantrill, José Urquidy (with whom pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar from his time with the Astros) and Spencer Turnbull are multi-year trade possibilities.

In recent offseasons, the bullpen has been a focus for Arizona. While that might not be as strong a priority after the deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald, there’s still room to deepen the setup corps. Kevin Ginkel has emerged as a quality eighth inning arm. Andrew Saalfrank flashed impressive stuff as a rookie. Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Kyle Nelson have middle relief spots but are coming off middling seasons. That’s also true of 2022 All-Star Joe Mantiply, who dropped behind Saalfrank as the top lefty option in the playoffs.

It’s hard to envision Arizona making a serious push for Josh Hader given their needs on the rotation front. Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are free agent setup types who’ll command multi-year deals. If the D-Backs want to bring in a left-hander, Matt Moore and Wandy Peralta are among the options.

Aside from supplementary acquisitions, the D-Backs could devote some of their long-term payroll room to extension negotiations. Arizona holds two more seasons of arbitration control on Gallen, who is on track to hit free agency before his age-30 campaign. He’d surely beat the five years and $64.5MM that Kyle Freeland received in the same service class. Logan Webb landed a five-year, $90MM guarantee in an extension with the Giants that went into effect beginning in his 4-5 service year, setting a potential benchmark for Gallen’s camp.

Moreno is the other top extension possibility. He has more MLB success than Keibert Ruiz did when he inked an eight-year, $50MM deal with the Nationals in the same service bracket. It’s possible a guarantee in that range that only buys out two or three free agent years — as opposed to the potential five seasons covered by the Ruiz extension — is mutually agreeable.

While it remains to be seen if the Snakes can get a long-term deal done with any of their players, one extension seems quite likely to be hammered out. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last month the D-Backs were likely to award an extension to manager Torey Lovullo. Arizona already signed Hazen through 2028. A similar term for the seventh-year skipper — who is currently under contract through next season — could be on the docket.

This year didn’t conclude with the championship that everyone in the Chase Field offices was seeking. Their relatively surprising playoff performance reinforced that they’ve moved into a win-now window. They’ll face challenges from their bigger-spending competitors in the NL West. The D-Backs are no longer upstarts. Beginning today, they set out to prove they have staying power.

Note: The original version of this post listed Lourdes Gurriel as a qualifying offer candidate. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel is ineligible to receive the QO under the terms of his contract.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Diamondbacks-specific chat on 11-2-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Diamondbacks Claim Chris Rodriguez

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While the Diamondbacks are preparing to host their first World Series game in over twenty years, they’re already thinking about the future. The team claimed right-handed pitcher Chris Rodriguez off of waivers from the Angels, according to his player page on MLB.com (and as first reported by Robert Murray of FanSided). Rodriguez spent the entire 2022 and ’23 seasons on the injured list following shoulder surgery.

When he last took the field, Rodriguez was a promising young arm with a high-velocity fastball and a nasty curve. Entering the 2021 season, Baseball America ranked him as the No. 3 prospect in the Angels system, praising his “wicked stuff” and “tantalizing four-pitch mix.” Across 15 games (2 starts) in his rookie campaign, he posted a 3.64 ERA, 3.50 xERA, and 4.29 SIERA. His 11.2% walk rate was cause for concern, yet he made up for it with an excellent 54.7% groundball rate. Even then, however, health was a problem for the righty. He missed all of the 2018 season and most of 2019 with back injuries before his shoulder started to cause problems in 2021. He would need capsule repair surgery, ending his rookie season, and he has not returned to a major league mound since. In addition to his long rehab for his shoulder, Rodriguez also dealt with a setback related to his back in 2023, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Despite all his injury trouble, it’s easy to see why Arizona was interested in Rodriguez. Still just 25 years old, he’s not so far removed from all the potential he had in his prospect days, although he has to prove he can stay on the field long enough to rediscover what made him such a highly-regarded talent. The Diamondbacks, for their part, have done well to help their pitchers thrive in recent years. Zac Gallen has become one of the best pitchers in baseball since he was dealt to D-backs in 2019. Merrill Kelly became a reliable MLB starter in his thirties after several seasons in the KBO. Kevin Ginkel, a 22nd-round pick, has blossomed into one of the better relievers in baseball. Most recently, the Diamondbacks raised Brandon Pfaadt from fifth-round pick to top-100 prospect to postseason hero. Arizona’s pitching coach, Brent Strom, is widely considered one of the most knowledgeable pitching gurus in the league.

It’s a little harder to see why the Angels would let Rodriguez go. They will surely need pitching depth in 2024, and with the possible departure of Shohei Ohtani, it’s difficult to picture this team in the thick of the playoff race next season. Nevertheless, they seem to have decided that Rodriguez’s 40-man roster spot was too valuable to use on a player who hasn’t pitched in over two years. The 25-year-old has spent most of the past two seasons on the 60-day injured list, but there is no 60-day IL during the offseason, so the Angels would have had to add him back to the 40-man after the World Series, thereby giving them one less open spot for potential offseason additions.

NL West Notes: Kelly, Pham, Dodgers, Padres, Preller

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Merrill Kelly’s gem of an outing in Game 2 has made him the talk of baseball, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal took a look back at the right-hander’s unique path to the World Series stage.  Beginning his career in the Rays’ farm system, Kelly signed with the KBO League’s SK Wyverns and spent four seasons pitching in South Korea, despite feeling an urge to return to North American baseball halfway through that stint.  Still, pitching in the KBO League sparked Kelly’s career to the point that Diamondbacks had interest in a free agent deal during the 2018-19 offseason, and Kelly signed a two-year, $5.5MM deal with club options attached for 2021 and 2022.

This was the only multi-year offer Kelly received that winter, so he jumped at the chance at some extra security as he made his MLB debut at age 30.  Between that initial contract and a subsequent extension signed prior to the 2022 season, Kelly’s time in Arizona has now included five seasons, at least $32.5MM in guaranteed salary, and now a key role in the postseason.  Kelly has a 2.25 ERA over four starts and 24 innings in these playoffs, and holds an interesting distinction as the first pitcher to earn a win in both the Korean Series (helping the Wyverns capture the 2018 title) and the World Series.

Some more from around the NL West….

  • Before the Diamondbacks picked up Tommy Pham from the Mets at the trade deadline, the Dodgers were known to be one of several other teams who considered acquiring the veteran outfielder.  Pham told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he wanted to join the Dodgers last offseason, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman twice turned down overtures from Pham’s agent, as L.A. was focused on adding a left-handed hitting outfielder instead.  David Peralta ended up being that lefty swinging outfielder, and while Peralta had a subpar season, Pham hit .256/.328/.446 over 481 combined PA with the Mets and D’Backs this season.  Pham has continued to contribute during Arizona’s playoff run, including a four-hit night in Game 2 of the World Series.
  • A.J. Preller’s management style as the Padres’ president of baseball operations has come under increased criticism due to the team’s disappointing 2023 season, as well as the reported discord between Preller and now-former manager Bob Melvin.  Preller spoke with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters about what he is looking for in hiring the Padres’ next skipper, with Acee adding details and anecdotes within the piece related to Preller’s approach, his (to some, overbearing) attention to detail, and the communication breakdown that occurred between Preller and Melvin over the last year.
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