By Tim Dierkes | at
The Cardinals are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
The Cardinals have one of MLB's smallest arbitration classes this year with first-timers McClellan and Ryan. Both should be tendered contracts and neither will be expensive. Ryan was abysmal with the bat this year, but he could win a Gold Glove.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Pirates are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
The Pirates have three locks to be tendered contracts: Joel Hanrahan, Ross Ohlendorf, and Ronny Cedeno. They're all penciled into key roles for 2011 and none will be expensive.
Position players Milledge, LaRoche, and Young are on the bubble. Milledge probably doesn't have an everyday role on next year's club, but he's cheap enough to keep around as a fourth outfielder. LaRoche and Young would fill less prominent bench roles, but it's possible the Pirates could trade or non-tender one or both.
Karstens was designated for assignment in November of last year and went unclaimed. He's probably still expendable. Despite a 6.86 ERA in 19.6 innings (inflated by one outing), there was a lot to like about Ledezma's stint with the club. He averaged almost 94 mph on his fastball, his peripherals were strong, and the team is light on lefty relievers. He may still be non-tendered, but I expect the Pirates to try to retain him.
Duke, 28 in April, is likely to be non-tendered if there's no trade interest. A month ago, 88% of MLBTR readers predicted the lefty will be cut loose. Duke needs a good defense behind him, but if healthy he has his moments.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Brewers are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
Fielder will clearly be tendered a contract, though he's a strong trade candidate. With so many star first basemen locked up in multiyear deals, there are few clear comparables for Fielder in his last arbitration year. Mark Teixeira, another Scott Boras client, received a $3.5MM raise in January of '08. That'd put Fielder at $14MM, though the Brewers' first baseman has significantly fewer runs and RBIs than Tex did and lacks Gold Glove hardware as well. Boras isn't obligated to talk about Fielder's raise, though. He can just focus on what he feels Fielder is worth now, even comparing him to free agents.
Weeks is also a lock to be tendered, given his breakout healthy season in 2010. It's difficult to find a comparable for Weeks, as most top offensive second basemen are locked up. His credentials will net a raise of at least a few million bucks, and the Brewers will probably open extension talks.
Loe is another player who will be unquestionably tendered a contract. He had success out of the Brewers' bullpen this year, but doesn't have the career numbers to merit a big first-time payday.
Pitchers Parra, Villanueva, and Coffey all posted disappointing ERAs but strong strikeout rates in 2010. I think Parra and Villanueva will be tendered contracts, though they could be trade bait. Brewers GM Doug Melvin, speaking to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, commented recently that "you don't want to give away a guy like Parra," as opposed to the team's "short leashes" on Jorge de la Rosa and Grant Balfour. Coffey earned $2.025MM this year, so there is a greater chance the Brewers non-tender him.
Gomez continued to struggle offensively, but his career numbers will limit his raise. He's likely to be part of the team's center field mix next year. Inglett, a 32-year-old journeyman, did solid work this year but could be cut in December for flexibility.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Astros are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
Pence, Rodriguez, and Bourn are the biggest names from the Astros' sizeable arbitration class. Pence has a good case for a $3MM raise, which would put him at $6.5MM for 2011. The Astros will continue to enjoy the savings from beating Rodriguez in arbitration last year, but they'll still owe him $7MM or more next year. We learned in August that Wandy seeks an extension, and we suggested at the time that three years and $24MM could work. Bourn could get a couple million more on the strength of his run and steal totals; he figures to stay.
Lindstrom had a rough finish, losing the closing job to Brandon Lyon as he dealt with a back injury. His raise could be limited to about $1MM. Paulino remains interesting enough to tender a contract, and Keppinger should also be retained.
Figueroa, 37 in May, has not yet gone through the arbitration process. Perhaps his 67 Astros innings this year were strong enough to merit a tender, or maybe the plan is to non-tender and then re-sign him. At any rate, interest is mutual between Figueroa and GM Ed Wade. Byrdak is a tough call. He battled hamstring and back injuries this year and already makes $1.6MM, but did handle lefties well.
Chacin tossed 38.3 innings for the Astros, his first big league work since '07. He'll probably be non-tendered. The non-tender decision on Quintero will depend on the Astros' perception of his defense and intangibles, since he's not much with the bat. He made only $750K this year and would receive a small raise.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
Votto will reach arbitration with a .314/.401/.557 career line in 456 games, including 268 runs, 90 home runs, 298 RBIs, 28 steals, a second-place Rookie of the Year finish, an All-Star appearance, and probably an MVP award. He'll have no problem making $7MM or more, and he doesn't know if he'd be interested in a long-term deal.
Rotation members Volquez and Cueto will certainly be tendered contracts too. John Danks' first-time arbitration salary of $3.45MM could be a target, though Cueto has the superior platform year among the two Reds pitchers.
Bruce isn't going anywhere either. MLBTR broke the news in June that he will be the Super Two with the least amount of service time this offseason, at two years and 125 days. Carlos Quentin's $3.2MM might be his goal.
Bray is worth tendering. He had Tommy John surgery in May of '09, limiting his career numbers. He was pretty good in 28.3 big league innings this year in his return. Burton would be slightly more expensive, coming from an $810K salary. Dealing with asthma and lack of strength this year, Burton spent most of the season at Triple A. I could see this one going either way depending on how the Reds feel about his health. His raise would be minimal.
Miller, who was outrighted in July but had his contract purchased in September, will likely be non-tendered for the flexibility. Nix was outrighted in November of last year and re-signed to a minor league deal. He was better this year, but was limited by an August ankle injury. I lean toward the Reds non-tendering him and attempting to re-sign him to a minor league deal again.
The Reds non-tendered Gomes last year coming off a .267/.338/.541 season, re-signing him in February. He performed worse on a rate basis with more playing time this year, but managed to knock in 86 runs. Gomes' current contract with the Reds has a $1.75MM club option for 2011 with a $500K buyout. I'm not sure if they'll find the $1.25MM net price to their liking, but according to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Reds have to release Gomes if they decline his option. Perhaps that means he's not technically arbitration eligible.
If the Reds let all of their free agents leave and also cut Gomes, Miller, and Nix, I estimate they'd have around $60MM committed. That'd mean $16MM to work with if payroll is held steady, and perhaps more given this year's attendance jump and playoff revenue.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Cubs are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
Soto rebounded in a big way heading up to his first bout with arbitration. He has an All-Star appearance and the Rookie of the Year award under his belt from 2008, and has a career .268 average with 54 home runs, 196 RBIs, and 153 runs in 378 games. I think he'll fall short of Russell Martin's first-time reward of $3.9MM, but should easily top $2MM.
Marmol, working from a $2.125MM base, padded his resume with 38 saves, a 2.55 ERA, and a ridiculous 138 strikeouts. He'll jump past $4MM. Marshall's at $950K this year and pitched quite well in his first full season as a reliever.
Baker earned $975K this year as a utility infielder and did enough to be tendered a contract. The Cubs will also want to keep Gorzelanny, working from an $800K salary, in the mix.
Guzman and Hill may be expendable. Guzman had serious shoulder surgery in March, so the Cubs may not even want to pay him $825K again. Hill continues to be a credible defensive backup catcher. His lack of offense would keep his salary down, but the Cubs could look elsewhere.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Nationals are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
The Nationals have to make decisions on a dozen players prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline. They're known for their willingness to go to hearings.
Lannan got the Opening Day start for the Nats, but elbow issues surfaced in May and he was optioned to the minors in June. He posted a 3.42 ERA, 6.2 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 11 starts after his recall, improving on his career peripherals and probably earning a contract for 2011. A couple of other starters, Olsen and Wang, will probably hit the free agent market after shoulder injuries wrecked their seasons. Wang didn't pitch in the pros at all. Olsen started out strong but could not recapture his success after returning from the DL.
The Nationals have four arbitration-eligible relievers in Slaten, Peralta, Burnett, and Walker. Slaten was designated for assignment in February, but he went on to have a strong season and dominated lefties. Peralta and Burnett were effective as well, with the latter even getting a few save chances. All three lefties should be tendered contracts. Walker went down with a shoulder injury in June and will be non-tendered.
Gonzalez and Nieves are expendable role players. They're not expensive, but the Nationals still may let one or both go. Flores, 26 this month, missed the entire year after having elbow and shoulder surgeries during the offseason. Wilson Ramos is now the team's catcher of the future, but Flores could be retained for little or no raise upon this year's $750K salary.
Morse, 28, earned a role on next year's club with a .289/.352/.519 performance in 293 plate appearances. The more expensive Josh Willingham will handle an outfield corner, barring a trade. Willingham will earn more than $6MM in his third arbitration year.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Phillies are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
The Phillies have locked up their regulars in the name of cost certainty, leaving only three arbitration-eligible role players. Kendrick did enough as a back-end guy to be tendered a contract. Francisco will stay as well, as he's still a solid fourth outfielder. Dobbs will certainly be cut loose, as he was designated for assignment twice during the season.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Mets are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
Pelfrey will be tendered a contract after his strong 2010, unless the Boras client signs an extension. He owns a 4.34 career ERA with 43 wins, which should be enough to get him more than $3MM. Pagan and Dickey were a couple of bright spots in the Mets' season, and both will be back next year. In Dickey's case, interest in a multiyear deal appears mutual.
Green missed most of the season with a torn rib cage muscle and a stress fracture in a rib, so he could be retained for a modest raise on top of this year's $975K salary. Maine is operating from a $3.3MM base, and made only nine starts for the Mets before succumbing to a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery. Even at no raise, he's a likely non-tender. Maine would hit the free agent market before his 30th birthday.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Marlins come next in our arbitration eligibles series…
Uggla and Nolasco are the Marlins' two big names. Under new representation, Uggla is reportedly seeking five years and $58MM against a Marlins' offer of roughly three years and less than $30MM. Uggla could get over $10MM through arbitration, and his free agent years are worth more, so the Marlins will have to do better. Talks with Nolasco have a similar theme. He might be better off going through arbitration, where a $6MM salary seems possible.
Nunez, Sanchez, Hensley, and Badenhop also seem like locks to be tendered contracts. With 55 saves to his name Nunez could jump past $4MM and become a trade candidate. Sanchez sports 30 wins and a 3.76 ERA in 471 innings and will be building upon a $1.25MM base and a strong platform year.
Miller, once a highly-touted prospect, has struggled badly with his control and could be on the bubble. If the Fish tender him a contract in December, they'll be faced with his out-of-options status next spring. Rivera, Carroll, Paulino, and Veras may be expendable. Paulino probably sealed his fate when he snagged a 50-game PED suspension in August.
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