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The Opener: MVP, Pre-Tender Deals, Non-Tender Candidates

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. MVP winners to be announced:

Award season is set to wrap up at 5pm CT this evening with the unveiling of MVP results in both leagues. There isn’t much suspense regarding the winner in either league, as the AL saw Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge establish himself as a heavy favorite with an eye-popping season that edged out his 2022 campaign (when he set a new AL record for home runs in a season) in both wRC+ (218) and fWAR (11.2). Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and top-of-the-class free agent Juan Soto had incredible seasons of their own to earn their spots as finalists, but Judge’s .322/.458/.701 slash, 58 home runs, 122 runs scored and 144 runs batted in will be nearly impossible to overcome.

Meanwhile, the NL field was regarded as crowded for most of the season, but Shohei Ohtani began to pull away from the pack late in the year as he became the first player in history to post a 50-50 season and ultimately finished with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases —  all while hitting .310/.390/.646. Assuming Ohtani wins over fellow finalists Francisco Lindor and Ketel Marte (whose case was dinged by a late stint on the injured list), he’ll become the first full-time DH to win the award in MLB history.

2. Are more pre-tender deals on the horizon?

With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, the A’s and first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown got a head start on the type of deal that will surely be seen frequently all across baseball over the next day and a half by avoiding arbitration. “Pre-tender” deals like these often see the player sign at a figure lower than their expected value in arbitration in order to secure a roster spot, knowing the alternative is a non-tender into a crowded free agent pool. Brown, who was outrighted off the A’s roster in June but hit his way back to the majors, agreed to a one-year, $2.7MM deal that fell well shy of the $3.8MM salary projected in MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s algorithm. Several more deals along these lines could unfold between now and tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.

3. Which players are non-tender candidates this year?

Ahead of tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, MLBTR will be publishing a list of potential non-tender candidates later today. While it certainly won’t be the case that every player listed gets non-tendered (and it’s quite unlikely that even most of them will), the list features a broad group of plausible candidates who could be non-tendered given their projected arbitration price and a confluence of factors including their expected production, injury situation, and/or the financial situation of their team. Some players from the list could also look to sign a pre-tender deal with their team or even be traded in advance of the deadline. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at a selection of arb-eligible players who could be trade candidates in the run-up to tomorrow’s deadline in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

MLB Mailbag: Braves, Padres, Red Sox, Rangers, Reds, Rizzo, Buehler

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This week's mailbag gets into Braves, Padres, and Red Sox offseason possibilities, where Anthony Rizzo and Walker Buehler could land, off-the-wall Reds trade ideas, potential Rangers trade partners, and much more.

Bill asks:

What will Atlanta do this offseason with their shortstop, pitching, catching, and outfield needs?

I don't think the Braves will do anything significant at catcher; they might be content to use Chadwick Tromp as Sean Murphy's backup and see how Drake Baldwin comes along.  If they wanted to limit Murphy's playing time, they would've kept Travis d'Arnaud.

In terms of starting pitchers, the Braves have been linked to Walker Buehler, Nick Pivetta, and Nathan Eovaldi so far.  We'll know by Friday whether they tender a contract to Griffin Canning.  I don't love the Pivetta fit, given that he declined a qualifying offer.

12 days ago, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tossed out some of these same names and also speculated on Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Kevin Gausman, and Shane Bieber.  I consider Kikuchi another viable free agent option, as well as Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and a reunion with Charlie Morton.  The Braves could make a play for Garrett Crochet, or try to trade for Fedde, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell, Jesus Luzardo, Luis Castillo, or Jeffrey Springs.  They could sign Jeff Hoffman as a starter, given how well that strategy worked with Reynaldo Lopez.

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Twins Re-Sign Scott Blewett, Yunior Severino To Minor League Deals

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The Twins have signed right-hander Scott Blewett and first baseman Yunior Severino to minor league deals, according to the club’s transactions tracker at MLB.com. Both players were just outrighted by the Twins a couple of weeks ago before electing free agency. They’ll rejoin the organization as depth options now.

This is the second straight offseason Blewett, 28, has signed a minor league deal with Minnesota. He pitched well both in Triple-A and in the majors for the Twins last season. He logged a 3.79 ERA in 54 2/3 frames with the Twins’ Triple-A club St. Paul, fanning 22.7% of his opponents against a tidy 7.1% walk rate. When the Twins summoned the former Royals hurler to the big leagues, he responded with 20 1/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. Blewett’s strikeout and walk rates were more pedestrian than that sparkling ERA, and metrics like FIP (4.00) and SIERA (4.05) felt he had a fair bit of good fortune, largely coming in the form of a 90.5% strand rate he’s not likely to sustain.

The 25-year-old Severino once ranked among the Twins’ top 10 prospects but has seen his stock drop as pronounced contact issues have persisted. He socked 35 homers between Double-A and Triple-A as recently as 2023 but fanned in nearly a third of his plate appearances that year. He dropped that strikeout rate to a still-alarming 27.8% in Triple-A this year but also saw his power output decline along with his strikeout rate; he hit just 21 homers while his ISO (slugging minus batting average) plummeted from .274 to .180.

In addition to the contact concerns, Severino is also a player without a clear defensive home. The former middle infielder has slid down the defensive spectrum as he’s filled out. He’s now primarily a first baseman and not considered to be a strong defender there. He’s also a below-average runner. Still, there’s clearly impressive raw power in Severino’s bat, and he’ll get another look in Triple-A at a time when the Twins’ first base situation is in flux. Carlos Santana became a free agent at season’s end, and former top prospect Alex Kirilloff surprisingly retired at just 26 years of age following a pair of wrist surgeries, a major shoulder surgery and a back injury that have resulted in him spending more time on the injured list than on active rosters in the past four seasons.

Latest On Rays’ Stadium Situation

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The Rays’ plans for 2028 and beyond are back up in the air. Over the weekend, owner Stuart Sternberg criticized local officials for postponing bond votes to approve the public financing to construct a new stadium in St. Petersburg’s Gas Plant district. Sternberg alluded to the possibility of relocation when discussing the situation with John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred addressed it at this week’s owners meetings. Asked about the possibility of relocation, Manfred said MLB remains “committed to the fans in Tampa Bay” (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). “I think given all that’s happened in that market, we’re focused on our franchise in Tampa Bay right now,” he added.

That partially walks back Sternberg’s relocation threat, though the team continues to agitate for a quick resolution. Pinellas County officials met on Tuesday afternoon, a few days after Sternberg’s comments. Leading up to the meeting, Rays presidents Brian Auld and Matt Silverman wrote a letter to the county saying that the delays have already “ended an ability for the delivery of the 2028 ballpark” (link via Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times). Auld and Silverman wrote that moving forward with the plan in ’29 “would result in significantly higher costs,” though they concluded by saying they “stand ready to work on a new solution with any and all willing partners to preserve the future of baseball in Tampa Bay.”

That didn’t spur any kind of movement from the county. Officials voted for another postponement on the bonds, pushing that back until at least December 17, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Sam Blum of the Athletic wrote yesterday that some county officials have taken issue with Sternberg’s tactics.

“To be clear, we did not vote to kill the deal, nor should a three-week delay in a 30-plus year commitment be a deal killer to begin with,” the board’s vice chair Brian Scott said at the meeting (per Blum). “That’s just a totally ridiculous statement. The delay was not because of a lack of support for the Rays or our partnership. But it was a necessary due diligence to ensure the best interest of our residents and our taxpayers were met.”

In July, St. Petersburg and Pinellas County each approved the stadium deal that would’ve committed upwards of $300MM in public funding to a $1.3 billion project. They didn’t officially vote on the bonds at that time, however, and the deal was thrown into flux in recent weeks. Hurricanes Helene and Milton have hit the area incredibly hard. Hurricane Milton destroyed the Tropicana Field roof, rendering it unplayable for at least the 2025 season. The city has yet to announce whether it’ll approve the approximate $55.7MM in repair costs necessary to get the Trop into playing condition by ’26. Elections in November also changed the makeup of the county council.

The Rays will play next season at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Manfred suggested the end of 2025 could serve as an unofficial deadline for having a long-term plan in place. “It’s one thing to make an interim arrangement for 2025, which we’ve done,” the commissioner stated. “When you get into another year, there’s obviously going to be another interim arrangement unless they get the Trop fixed. I think that second year of an interim arrangement, you need a plan as to how you’re going to get into a permanent facility.”

Trade Candidates To Watch Before Friday’s Non-Tender Deadline

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Friday represents the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are under club control. There are always a few notable names who are cut loose as their projected arbitration price tags begin to outpace production. The non-tender deadline can also serve as a catalyst for trades. A player's current team might not want to meet their arbitration salary, but the price isn't so outlandish that they can't find someone else willing to take that on.

Cal Quantrill, Scott Barlow, Luis Urías and Kyle Wright all fell into this bucket at last year's deadline. They'd each had some early-career success that built their arbitration prices, but each was either coming off a mediocre year or (in Wright's case) facing a significant injury absence.

We'll try to identify a few players who could land in the middle ground this week. These aren't the arbitration-eligible players who are most likely to be traded at any point this offseason. Garrett Crochet, Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams all have a decent chance to move over the winter, but none of them is in danger of getting cut. Friday doesn't serve as any kind of deadline to spur a trade for them. Their teams can tender them a contract and trade them weeks or months from now. Players traded this week are usually borderline non-tender candidates. If their teams don't find a trade partner by Friday evening, they could decide to move on entirely. Salary projections are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. All of these players have five-plus years of service and are down to their final year of club control.

Mike Yastrzemski, Giants ($9.5MM projection)

All four of San Francisco's arb-eligible players could arguably fit on this list. LaMonte Wade Jr., Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval are themselves viable offseason trade candidates. Moving Yastrzemski could be the most urgent decision for president of baseball operations Buster Posey. With a $9.5MM projection, he's the most expensive player in the team's arbitration class and seems the likeliest to be non-tendered if they don't arrange a trade in the next 48 hours.

Yastrzemski is a capable everyday right fielder. After two excellent offensive seasons to begin his career, he has settled in as an average hitter. The lefty-hitting outfielder carries a .225/.311/.431 batting line since the start of the '21 season. This year's .231/.302/.437 slash with 18 homers is on par with that production. Yastrzemski is a solid defensive corner outfielder but isn't an option for more than emergency work in center field. A near-$10MM salary for his age-34 season is neither an albatross nor a bargain. Yastrzemski seemed to be a favorite of former front office head Farhan Zaidi. It's not clear if Posey values him to the same extent, but the Giants are clearly going to reshuffle the lineup in some way this winter.

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Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deals With Seby Zavala, Nate Eaton

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The Red Sox have agreed to minor league deals with catcher Seby Zavala, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Boston is also in agreement on a minor league deal with utilityman Nate Eaton, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Eaton would earn a $780K base salary if selected to the 40-man roster. Both players will be invited to major league spring training.

Zavala, a client of Headline Sports Group, spent the 2024 season in the Mariners organization. Seattle acquired him alongside flamethrowing relief prospect Carlos Vargas in the trade sending Eugenio Suarez to the D-backs. The hope was that Zavala, a terrific defender behind the plate, could hold down the backup job to workhorse catcher Cal Raleigh.

Things didn’t pan out that way, however. The 31-year-old Zavala has never hit much, but last year’s .154/.214/.282 slash (in a tiny sample of 43 plate appearances) was too anemic for the M’s to stomach. Zavala was designated for assignment three different times but opted to stick with the M’s via outright assignment each time. He became a minor league free agent at season’s end.

Zavala has appeared in 194 big league games. He’s a career .205/.271/.342 hitter in that time. He’s shown passable power for his position and also displayed some pop in the minors, but Zavala has punched out in a staggering 35.9% of his 557 big league plate appearances. That lack of contact leaves him with practically no hope of producing at even an average level.

Defensively, it’s another story. Zavala regularly posts elite framing marks and draws above-average grades for his ability to block pitches in the dirt, per Statcast. He posted a below-average caught stealing rate in 2023 but was within one percentage point of league-average in both 2024 and 2022. The Red Sox currently only have two catchers on the 40-man roster: Connor Wong and Mickey Gasper. Adding some experienced depth is a sensible endeavor.

Eaton, 28 next month, is a client of Gaeta Sports Management. He didn’t play in the big leagues this past season but logged 72 games and 178 plate appearances for the Royals from 2022-23. He batted only .201/.266/.283 in that time, but the versatile right-handed hitter has a far better track record in the upper minors. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A Omaha, he’s a .261/.320/.455 hitter with 40 homers and 60 steals in 255 games (1060 plate appearances).

Eaton has played primarily third base in his professional career but has at least 600 innings at each of the three outfield slots in addition to another 350 frames at second base and 60 at shortstop. Statcast credited him with 97th percentile sprint speed in his two big league seasons, measuring him at a blazing 29.6 feet per second.

Boston’s bench should have some spots up for grabs. Utilityman Rob Refsnyder, another right-handed bat, figures to have one spot locked down, and Gasper does as well for the time being, currently profiling as the backup to Wong. Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard, Enmanuel Valdez and Vaughn Grissom could all be in the mix for spots as well, but they all have minor league options remaining. Eaton’s versatility could earn him a look in the majors with a big spring or a strong early showing with the Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Worcester.

Manfred: Sasaki Unlikely To Sign Until 2025

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Roki Sasaki is one of the offseason’s top stories. The Chiba Lotte Marines announced two weeks ago that they’d make the 6’2″ righty, who is widely viewed as the best pitcher in Japan, available to major league clubs via the posting system. While the Marines didn’t specify a timeline for the posting, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed this afternoon that Sasaki is not expected to sign until 2025 (link via Johnny Flores of the Athletic).

That doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. The 23-year-old Sasaki is classified as an amateur free agent — as are all players signing from a foreign league before their 25th birthday. That’s most notable because it caps Sasaki’s signing bonus to a few million dollars, a small fraction of his actual open market value. The amateur status is also relevant to the timing of his signing.

MLB permits teams to sign international amateur free agents at any point between January 15 and December 15. The vast majority of significant deals are inked on January 15. Players signing as teenagers out of Latin America usually reach verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance of the signing period. Those deals are typically finalized as soon as the period opens in mid-January.

As a result, teams have spent most or all of their bonus pools for 2024. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote last week that the Dodgers had the most remaining ’24 bonus space at roughly $2.5MM. By contrast, every team has between $5.1MM and $7.6MM in its pool for next year. If Sasaki were to sign before December 15, he’d be limiting himself to a small percentage on a bonus that is already capped. He’s not eligible to sign between December 15 and January 15, so he’ll wait until the opening of next year’s pool.

Of course, that presents a problem for players who have already reached verbal agreements that they expected the teams to finalize on January 15. The amateur bonus pool is hard capped. Teams can trade for bonus allotments to add a couple million dollars to their pools, but there’s a finite amount of money that MLB allows teams to spend. (Players who sign for $10K or less are exempt from the pool, but any prospect of note will sign for much more than that.)

Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely commit most or all of their pool to him. As a major league ready potential ace, he’s far more attractive to teams than even the most well-regarded teenage prospects in the class. The signing team will probably need to renege on verbal agreements with other players, who’d find themselves in flux as they look for other teams that have reached unofficial agreements with targets of their own.

If Sasaki waits into late January or February to sign, teams will need to weigh whether to finalize any commitments to other amateur players — which subtracts from the amount of money they could offer the NPB star. Badler’s piece is worth checking out in full, as he covers the trickle-down impacts that Sasaki’s free agency could have on players and trainers in Latin America. None of those are Sasaki’s concern. They’re unfortunate consequences of the system that was collectively bargained between MLB and the Players Association.

While Sasaki isn’t likely to sign before the middle of January, the posting process could begin earlier than that. A player posted by an NPB team has 45 days to sign with a major league club. The Marines could theoretically post Sasaki anytime from December 2 on to allow him to sign in the ’25 window. They’ll presumably wait at least into the middle of December so as not to force him to sign within a day or two of the opening of the signing period.

Tarik Skubal Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Tarik Skubal has his first Cy Young award. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that the Tigers ace won the AL Cy Young by a unanimous margin. He received all 30 first-place votes. Kansas City’s Seth Lugo placed runner-up, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase rounded out the top three.

Whether Skubal would win the award was never in doubt. The hard-throwing southpaw, who turns 28 today, won the AL’s pitching Triple Crown. He led the Junior Circuit with a 2.39 earned run average across 192 innings. He held the major league lead in wins (18) and strikeouts (228). Skubal was essentially dominant from start to finish, as he didn’t allow an ERA higher than 3.05 in any month. He carried a 2.41 mark into the All-Star Break to earn his first selection to the Midsummer Classic.

Skubal fired 76 innings of 2.37 ERA ball after the Break, serving as the one constant in a Detroit rotation that was patched together after the Jack Flaherty deadline trade. He was the biggest contributor to the Tigers’ Cinderella run to a Wild Card in the second half. He punctuated the regular season with seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rays that more or less ensured Detroit would clinch a playoff spot in the final weekend of the regular season.

This was the first season in which Skubal topped 150 innings. He looked like a budding ace in 2022, when he turned in a 3.52 ERA with huge strikeout numbers across 21 starts. A late-season flexor injury brought that year to a halt. Skubal underwent surgery in August and was out into July ’23. He struck out 102 batters with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts to close that season. Skubal was a trendy preseason Cy Young pick coming into 2024. He more than lived up to that promise.

Lugo, who turned 35 earlier this week, had the best season of his career. He turned in an even 3.00 ERA across 206 2/3 innings. Only Logan Gilbert threw more innings than Lugo, a former reliever who didn’t move back to the rotation until the ’23 season. The Royals made out incredibly well in the first season of a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. Lugo’s stellar year was a big reason that K.C. snapped a nine-year playoff drought of their own.

Clase had one of the best seasons by a reliever ever. The Guardians’ closer managed a 0.61 ERA across 74 1/3 frames. He locked down 47 saves in 50 attempts. Clase has led the majors in saves in three straight seasons. He anchored an elite Cleveland bullpen that carried the Guardians to an AL Central title. He’s the first reliever since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008 to earn a top three finish in Cy Young balloting.

While Skubal had a monopoly on first-place votes, five pitchers placed second on at least one ballot. In addition to Lugo and Clase, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes and Gilbert all picked up a second-place vote. Framber Valdez was the only other pitcher to receive any top three votes. Kirby Yates, Yusei Kikuchi and Cleveland rookie reliever Cade Smith all appeared on one ballot in fourth or fifth place.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown courtesy of the BBWAA.

Chris Sale Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Braves left-hander Chris Sale has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2024, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Zack Wheeler of the Phillies finished in second place with Paul Skenes of the Pirates in third place.

The award is the final cherry on top of a remarkable comeback season for Sale. He had a run from 2010 to 2018 of being one of the best pitchers in the majors, but struggled in 2019 and then was in the injury wilderness for quite a while. Due to various ailments, including Tommy John surgery, he only pitched about 150 innings total from 2020 to 2023.

The Red Sox flipped him to Atlanta almost a year ago, in December of 2023. The move was seen as risky at the time, as Sale was going into his age-35 season and was several years removed from his prime.

On top of that, Atlanta sent Vaughn Grissom to Boston in the deal, a notable prospect who still had years and years of cheap control. In return, they were getting just one year of Sale, though they did sign him to an extension that covered 2024 and 2025 with a club option for 2026. That extended their window of control over him, but at a fairly hefty price point: $38MM for the two guaranteed years plus $18MM for the option.

But so far, the deal has been incredibly lopsided in favor of Atlanta. Grissom was injured for much of 2024 and didn’t perform well while healthy. For Atlanta, most of their key contributors got hurt this year while Sale ironically stayed healthy, in spite of his recent track record.

Sale finished the season having made 29 starts and thrown 177 2/3 innings, allowing 2.38 earned runs per nine. He struck out 32.1% of batters faced, only gave out walks 5.6% of the time and got grounders on 44.8% of balls in play. He won the pitching triple crown by leading the National League in ERA, wins and strikeouts. His tally of 6.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs was easily the most in the majors this year, with Tarik Skubal of the Tigers second at 5.9 fWAR.

Despite his previous dominance, this is actually Sale’s first time taking home the hardware. Per MLB’s Sarah Langs on X, Sale is the first pitcher to finish top five in Cy Young voting in five straight years, fall outside the top five for five straight years immediately after, followed by a return to the top five. He is also (X links from Langs) the first pitcher to have six previous top five finishes and later win the award, in addition to being one of the five oldest pitchers to win for the first time.

Sale got 26 of the first place votes (full vote tallies from the BBWAA), with the other four going to Wheeler, who logged exactly 200 innings over 32 starts with a 2.57 ERA. Skenes already won Rookie of the Year award earlier this week but this further cements what an amazing season he had. Other pitchers getting votes were Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga, Logan Webb, Michael King, Hunter Greene, Ryan Helsley, Cristopher Sánchez, Reynaldo López, Sean Manaea and Aaron Nola.

Tigers Sign Jahmai Jones To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have signed infielder/outfielder Jahmai Jones to a minor league deal, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The ACES client will receive an invite to major league spring training and will make a salary of $810K if he cracks the big league roster.

The 27-year-old Jones was once a notable prospect but he hasn’t yet had an extended big league opportunity, despite generally performing well in the minors. He spent most of 2024 with the Yankees, though in a fairly limited role. They claimed him off waivers from the Brewers in February, but he had exhausted his option years and needed to remain on the roster. The Yanks kept him around for over four months but only gave him 47 plate appearances in that time. He was outrighted off the roster in early August.

Jones now has a poor .198/.257/.278 batting line in his big league career, though in 137 plate appearances scattered across four different seasons. After being outrighted by the Yanks, he produced a robust line of .304/.390/.490 in 34 Triple-A games, leading to a 131 wRC+. This gives him a line of .276/.408/.471 over 564 Triple-A plate appearances in the past two years.

He hasn’t been able to bring that kind of production to the majors yet, but there’s no harm in a minor league deal and he’s a sensible guy to take a shot on. He was a second-round pick of the Angels in 2015 and got some top 100 prospect love in the years after that. Despite the many years that have transpired since then, he is still fairly young and has continued to put up good numbers on the farm.

He would be a fine fit for just about any club on a minor league deal but he could be an especially good fit for the Tigers, since he’s a right-handed hitter who has mostly played second base and the outfield in his career. The Tigers have a lefty swinger at the keystone in Colt Keith while their outfield mix includes lefties Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and Akil Baddoo. They also have Jace Jung likely to be at third, Trey Sweeney at shortstop and Zach McKinstry in a utility role, each of those three also being left-handed.

Perhaps there’s a path for Jones to serve as a right-handed complement to that group in a multi-positional role. If he eventually cracks the roster, he is out of options but has less than a year of service time, meaning he can be cheaply retained for future seasons as well.

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