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Royals Sign Ross Stripling To Minor League Deal

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The Royals announced that they have signed right-hander Ross Stripling to a minor league deal. The Excel Sports Management has also been invited to participate in major league spring training.

Stripling, 35, is a veteran swingman with plenty of good seasons under his belt. However, he’s coming off two pretty rough campaigns. From 2016 to 2022, he logged 672 innings between the Dodgers and Blue Jays over 104 starts and 100 relief appearances. He allowed 3.78 earned runs per nine over that span. His 22.3% strikeout rate was close to average but his 45% ground ball rate was strong and his 5.7% walk rate very good.

The last season of that stretch was his best. With the Jays in 2022, he made 24 starts and eight relief appearances, throwing 134 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.01. His 20.7% strikeout rate was still only average-ish but his 3.7% walk rate was tiny. Among pitchers with at least 130 frames that year, only Corey Kluber and Aaron Nola gave out free passes at a lower rate.

That led to a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants going into 2023, with his results tapering off from there. He posted a 5.36 ERA in 2023 and then got flipped to the Athletics ahead of last season. With Oakland in 2024, he spent time on the injured list with a right elbow strain and a lower back strain, allowing a 6.01 ERA in 85 1/3 innings around that.

Under the hood, things aren’t quite as bleak as that ERA would suggest. His .338 batting average on balls in play and 54.8% strand rate were both on the unlucky side last year. His 3.89 FIP believed him to be far better than his ERA, though SIERA was less optimistic at 5.01. Stripling’s control was still strong last year, walking just 5.8% of opponents, but his 12.9% strikeout rate was quite low and a third straight drop for him. He struck out 21.8% of opponents in 2021 but that figure has dropped to 20.7%, 18.4% and 12.9% in the past three campaigns.

The Kansas City rotation will be fronted by Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in three spots. Michael Lorenzen will likely have a spot at the back end. Kris Bubic and Kyle Wright are rotation candidates as well, though they are each returning from significant health issues. Bubic missed almost all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and worked out of the bullpen last year. Wright missed the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery.

There are some other options on the 40-man, including Alec Marsh and Daniel Lynch IV. They are still optionable and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation. Stripling will give the Royals a bit of non-roster depth for the staff. If they want a long reliever in the bullpen at some point, perhaps they could turn to Stripling in order to leave guys like Marsh and Lynch getting regular starts in the minors.

Latest On Brewers’ Infield Alignment

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The departure of Willy Adames in free agency left the Brewers with a glaring hole at shortstop and multiple ways to address the issue. Given Milwaukee’s perennially low payroll, a costly acquisition to replace Adames felt every bit as unlikely as the team’s chances of retaining the former All-Star. Fellow infielders Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang are both shortstops who played different positions in deference to Adames last year; Ortiz at third base primarily and Turang at second base exclusively (save for one lone DH appearance).

While the final alignment will be contingent on health and spring performance, Brewers owner Mark Attanasio at least tipped his hand a bit with regard to his organization’s thinking. When asked about his lack of additions to the roster, Attanasio touted the young talent the Brewers have returning in 2025 and noted a desire to get prospect Tyler Black at third base, noting that Ortiz “can slide over” to shortstop (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

A move to shortstop would only be natural for Ortiz, who spent the bulk of his minor league career there. He only moved off the position due to the presence of Adames in Milwaukee. Lining up as the Brewers’ regular third baseman in 2024, Ortiz ranked as one of the top defensive infielders in the sport. Defensive Runs Saved (8) and Outs Above Average (11) both credited him with excellent totals at third base despite “only” logging about 82% of a season there. (Ortiz also played 10 games at shortstop and made six appearances at second base.)

Both Baseball America and FanGraphs labeled Ortiz a 70-grade defender (on the 20-80 scale) in his prospect days; MLB.com tabbed him with a 65 glove. Plus to elite defense was always expected from the 2019 fourth-rounder. So far, he’s made good on that billing. Ortiz also at least held his own at the plate, slashing .239/.329/.398 in 511 plate appearances — good for a 104 wRC+. He popped 11 homers, 25 doubles and six triples last year.

Turang could presumably handle shortstop as well, but it’s hard to displace a player who just took home a Platinum Glove for his superlative work at second base. The former No. 21 overall pick won his first of what will likely be many Gold Gloves in 2024 and was named the NL’s top overall defensive player as well. Defensive Runs Saved credited Turang with an outrageous mark of 22. Statcast wasn’t quite so over-the-moon but felt he was a clear plus, pegging him at 6 OAA.

A middle-infield tandem of Ortiz and Turang might be the best defensive pairing in all of baseball. That’ll be important, as the rest of the infield faces more questions about its glovework. Rhys Hoskins will be back for a second season after exercising a player option valued at $18MM. The Brewers still owe him that salary and a $4MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option. Hoskins has negative career marks at first base and struggled again in 2024 — his first season back from an ACL tear that cost him the 2023 campaign.

At the hot corner, it seems like the 24-year-old Black will get the opportunity to run with the position, though Dunn and trade acquisition Caleb Durbin could also factor in. Black is a bat-first prospect who’s hit at every minor league stop but has had a nomadic journey in pro ball with regard to his defensive home. He’s played third more than any other position but also has ample experience at second base, first base and in the outfield — including center.

The Brewers have tried playing Black all over the field, because the bat and the speed play even with a below-average arm and questionable footwork/instincts in the field. Black’s ultimate home might be at first base, but Hoskins has that locked down for now thanks to the aforementioned contract and salary. Black might push across the diamond in 2026, but there’s no everyday role for him at first right now. Hoskins can’t slide to DH full-time, as Christian Yelich will see a decent bit of time there.

Dunn and Durbin offer some interesting alternatives, but neither has Black’s upside at the plate. Dunn didn’t hit much in a 104-plate appearance debut last year, but he has a big track record in the upper minors. He’s been far more strikeout-prone than Black in the minors and generally lacks the hit tool and swing decisions Black boasts. Durbin, acquired in the Devin Williams/Nestor Cortes trade, has yet to make his MLB debut. He’s a contact, speed and OBP-oriented infielder who’s best suited at second base but has 660 professional innings at third base as well. Durbin’s bat-to-ball skills, plate discipline and speed are all strong, but he’s light on power and posted bottom-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard-hit numbers in Triple-A last year.

NL East Notes: Sale, Montas, Wood

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Braves left-hander Chris Sale just had a tremendous bounceback season. He made 29 starts with a 2.38 earned run average, earning a National League Cy Young award. He was largely injured and/or ineffective from 2019 to 2023, which had him pondering retirement.

“I thought that it was gonna be my last year,” Sale said to the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast about where he was at before getting traded to Atlanta. “So I went into that offseason on a mission like ’one more year left.’… ’cause in my mind, I wasn’t walking away from baseball. I was walking away from getting hurt.”

The Red Sox traded Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom in December of 2023. At the time, as mentioned, he had been battling significant injuries for five years. Tommy John surgery in 2020 was the big one but Sale also had a stress reaction in his ribs, a fractured finger, a broken wrist suffered in a bicycle accident and a stress reaction in his shoulder blade over that span. He had a 4.16 ERA in 298 1/3 innings over those five seasons.

2024 was the final year of his extension with the Red Sox and the mounting injuries apparently had him looking towards hanging up his spikes. But he was traded to Atlanta, signed an extension that covered 2024 and 2025 with a club option for 2026, and then went on to have an excellent season in 2024. It makes for an interesting “what if” but Sale is clearly in a better spot now. The injury bug hasn’t left him entirely alone, however. He missed the final two weeks of 2024 due to back spasms and was also left off Atlanta’s postseason roster. 2024 was still a big improvement over prior years but time will tell if he can keep the good health going into his age-36 season.

Some more spring training tidbits from the NL East…

  • It was reported earlier this week that Mets righty Frankie Montas has a lat strain and will be shut down for six to eight weeks. The righty is apparently a bit more optimistic than his club, however. He told members of the media today, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, that he’s already feeling better from his platelet-rich plasma injection and expects to be throwing again in four to six weeks. That’s still a notable period of time but it’s a bit less dire than the other timeline. He had a 4.84 ERA last year and then signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Mets this winter. He will have the chance to opt out after the first year, though returning healthy and productive will be important if he is to consider that possibility. For now, the Mets’ rotation mix includes Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill.
  • Nationals outfielder James Wood has some quad tendinitis, per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. It doesn’t bother him when he hits, so he’s been able to take batting practice but has skipped some defensive drills. Per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, Wood says he has “zero” concern but the club did send him for an MRI, which showed no structural damage. With still over a month before Opening Day, there’s plenty of time to get things in order, with Wood and the Nats both surely hoping for a clean bill of health by then. Now just 22 years old, Wood hit .264/.354/.427 in his major league debut last year and is slated to be a big part of the club’s future.

Nationals Sign Lucas Sims

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2:05pm: The deal is for $3MM, per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post.

10:03am: The Nationals made a late addition to their bullpen Wednesday, announcing the signing of right-hander Lucas Sims to a one-year contract. Righty Mason Thompson, who had Tommy John surgery last March, was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Sims is represented by TWC Sports.

Sims, 31 in May, has spent most of his career with the Reds but was traded to the Red Sox at last year’s deadline. That deal didn’t work out especially well for Boston, as they gave up prospect Ovis Portes in exchange, while Sims then posted a 6.43 earned run average over 15 appearances around a three-week absence for a lat strain.

The Nats are surely looking beyond that unfortunate finish to his 2024 campaign. From 2019 to 2021, Sims tossed 115 2/3 innings for Cincinnati with a 4.05 ERA. He had a huge 35.2% strikeout rate over those seasons, though he undercut that somewhat with his 10.1% walk rate and some long balls.

He had a 50.6% fly ball rate in that stretch, with league average usually falling in the 35-40% range. For a guy who played his home games in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park, that wasn’t ideal and perhaps masked his true talents. He had a 3.69 FIP and 3.15 SIERA in that time. However, he strangely had a 3.75 ERA at home in those seasons but a 4.34 mark on the road.

Since then, his results have been a bit less impressive. His 2022 was largely wiped out by back issues, which culminated in surgery to repair a herniated disc. He only made six appearances that year. He returned to have a healthy 2023, tossing 61 innings with a 3.10 ERA, but his strikeout rate dropped to 27.9%. That was still above average but a notable drop from his previous work. His walk rate also ticked way up to 15.1%. A tiny .212 batting average on balls in play seemed to help him that year, which is why he had a 4.37 FIP and 4.58 SIERA.

He then posted a 3.57 ERA with the Reds last year, though with his strikeout rate falling again to 26%. His walk rate improved to 13%, a drop from the prior year but still a few ticks above average. As mentioned, he was then dealt to the Red Sox and finished the year on a down note.

Sims is a risky bet given that inconsistency but it will presumably be a fairly modest investment on the heels of his 2024 season. If he can engineer a bounceback this year, it would turn into a nice buy-low move for the Nats.

Some observers expected Washington to have an aggressive winter, but that hasn’t really come to pass. The rebuilding club has graduated a number of young players to the majors in recent years but that hasn’t pushed them to slam on the gas pedal. They have made a few additions but mostly of the short-term variety. Nathaniel Lowe was acquired to play first base and can be controlled through 2026, though he could also be traded or non-tendered depending on how things go this year. The Nats also signed Trevor Williams and Shinnosuke Ogasawara to relatively modest two-year deals and gave one-year pacts to Michael Soroka, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, Jorge López and Paul DeJong.

In the bullpen, López and Derek Law figure to be the veteran anchors. Apart from that, it’s fairly wide open. Colin Poche is in camp as a non-roster invitee and could give them a bit more experience. Guys like Jose A. Ferrer, Eduardo Salazar, Zach Brzykcy, Evan Reifert and Orlando Ribalta are on the 40-man but no one in that group has more than 66 innings of big league experience. If the Nats and Sims get a deal done, he can join Law, López and Poche as the experienced arms in the group.

If the Nats aren’t in contention at the deadline, all of those veteran arms would be logical trade candidates. Both Law and López are slated for free agency at season’s end. Assuming Sims is only talking about a one-year deal, that would be true of him as well. Poche’s service time count is at five years and 114 days, meaning he’s just 58 shy of the six years needed for automatic free agency. If he’s on the roster before the deadline, then he would be on pace for free agency at season’s end as well.

MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo first reported that the Nats and Sims were closing in on a deal. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reported that Sims had arrived at Nats camp and was signing a major league contract.

Rockies Sign Scott Alexander, Designate Aaron Schunk

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1:32pm: Alexander gets $2MM, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

11:24am: The Rockies have signed left-handed reliever Scott Alexander to a one-year, major league contract, per Patrick Lyons of Just Baseball. Infielder Aaron Schunk was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Alexander is represented by Apex Baseball.

Alexander, 35, is coming off a strong but injury-shortened season with the A’s. He missed time due to a ribcage injury and tendinitis in his shoulder, but when Alexander was healthy he logged 38 2/3 innings of 2.56 ERA ball.

Alexander fanned a below-average 19.4% of opponents against a higher-than-average 9.4% walk rate, but his mammoth 60% ground-ball rate was among the highest in MLB and helped to offset some of his more pedestrian rate stats in other areas. Of the 474 pitchers who tossed at least 30 big league innings last year, only 11 turned in a ground-ball rate of 60% or higher. Alexander was tied with Giants righty Camilo Doval at exactly 60%, sitting tenth in the game.

The 2024 season was the tenth of Alexander’s career. A sixth-round pick by the Royals back in 2010, he’s tossed 309 1/3 major league innings and combined for a 3.20 ERA, 18% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and a colossal 67.4% ground-ball rate. That ability to pile up grounders at a higher rate than just about any pitcher in MLB surely appealed to the Rockies, whose Coors Field home is notorious for its homer-friendly nature and sprawling, expansive outfield. With quality defenders all around the infield — Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar, Thairo Estrada, Michael Toglia — the Rox are an even more natural fit.

While Alexander has never worked as a closer — 10 career saves notwithstanding — he’s no stranger to high-leverage spots. He picked up 10 holds for the A’s in 2024, has a career-high of 21 holds (Dodgers, 2018) and has amassed 62 holds in his major league career. The Rox have plenty of interesting young arms in their bullpen competition (e.g. Seth Halvorsen, Angel Chivilli, Luis Peralta, Jeff Criswell), but Alexander will provide a seasoned veteran who can comfortably pitch in late-inning spots as needed.

As things stand, there’s no set closer in Colorado. Veterans Tyler Kinley and Justin Lawrence are the most experienced options. Both have closed games for the Rox in the past, but both pitched to ERAs north of 6.00 in 2024. Those struggles could open the door for a power-armed young reliever like Halvorsen or Victor Vodnik to win the job.

Alexander’s arrival on the Rockies’ roster will come at the expense of the 27-year-old Schunk, who made his big league debut in 2024. Schunk, the Rockies’ second-round pick in 2019, appeared in 39 games with the Rox but batted only .234/.265/.330 in 98 trips to the plate. He’s slashed .291/.346/.464 in 807 turns at the plate in Triple-A over the past two seasons. It’s a solid-looking line, though when weighted for the enormously hitter-friendly environs of the Pacific Coast League (and, specifically, the Rockies’ Triple-A home in Albuquerque), it’s actually a bit shy of league-average production.

Schunk played at second base, third base and shortstop in the majors last year and has minor league experience at all three spots. He’s spent the vast majority of his time at the hot corner in pro ball, logging more than 2800 innings at third base between the minors and last year’s 89 big league frames. He’s been regarded as a sound defender at third base in scouting reports from Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com in the past.

Between his solid minor league output at the plate, that defensive versatility and a full slate of minor league option years remaining, Schunk could hold appeal to a club with less infield certainty than the Rockies currently possess with McMahon, Tovar, Estrada and veteran utilityman Kyle Farmer. The Rockies will have five days to trade him. A player’s DFA window is one week long, but since waivers are a 48-hour process, Schunk would need to be traded by next Monday or else placed on outright waivers.

Guardians Sign John Means

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The Guardians announced the signing of free agent lefty John Means on a one-year deal with a 2026 club option. The Wasserman client will reportedly make $1MM for the upcoming season. The option carries a base value of $6MM and contains $1.5MM in bonuses: $75K apiece for every 10 innings between 20 and 50, $100K each for the next 10 innings up to 90, $125K for the following 10 innings through 130, and $150K each at 140 and 150 frames. The option does not include a buyout, so the guarantee is $1MM. Means is recovering from his second career Tommy John surgery and expected to be out of action until August.

As a corresponding move, Cleveland placed David Fry on the 60-day injured list. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November and won’t be able to play the field this year. Even returning as a DH will reportedly take six to eight months from that surgery, meaning he likely won’t return until midseason.

Means, 31, was once the Opening Day starter for the Orioles and looked to be a cornerstone in the rotation as the team navigated the late stages of its rebuild and moved back into a win-now mode. The southpaw pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 353 1/3 innings from 2019-22 but was limited to just eight innings in the final of those four years when a UCL tear necessitated Tommy John surgery.

Means grinded through a yearlong rehab process and returned late in the 2023 season. He didn’t make it out of May of 2024 without reinjuring his elbow, unfortunately, and the team announced a second UCL procedure for Means last June. That surgery figures to sideline him beyond the All-Star break — perhaps into the final month or so of the season. Given that timeline, he’s not a lock to pitch for Cleveland at all this year. Any setbacks of note would make it tough for the lefty to get back on a big league mound in 2025.

At his best, Means sat 92-94mph with a four-seamer and complemented the pitch with an 82 mph changeup and 85 mph slider. His strikeout rate typically sat just below league average, though Means’ impeccable command helped to offset his pedestrian bat-missing numbers.

Now, however, three full seasons have elapsed since Means last pitched even 25 big league innings in a season. He tossed 146 2/3 innings in 2019 when first establishing himself and logged a career-high 155 frames in 2021. He’s since combined for just 52 1/3 innings: eight in 2022, 23 2/3 in 2023 and 20 2/3 in 2024. When he was healthy enough to take the mound last year, Means’ fastball averaged only 90.5 mph — down more than three miles per hour from its peak of 93.8 in 2020.

There’s clearly a good bit of uncertainty with Means, which is reflected in the minimal nature of his guarantee this season. If he can get back to peak form, or even 80-90% of that form, he’ll be a bargain addition. If not, the Guardians are barely investing more than a league-minimum salary and can simply move on at season’s end. Stocking up on late-season reinforcements for the staff makes some sense for the Guardians, who don’t have the type of rotation certainty that we’ve generally come to expect from them over the years.

Right-hander Tanner Bibee has emerged as the unquestioned staff leader, but the rest of the group is far less certain. Gavin Williams and Logan Allen, both top prospects who graduated alongside Bibee and impressed in 2023, took substantial steps backwards in 2024. Right-hander Ben Lively has found a second act in his MLB career after spending three years in the KBO, but he sat 89.9 mph with his heater last year. He’s far from a sure thing, but coming off 151 innings of 3.81 ERA ball, he’s likely locked into a spot. Beyond Bibee and Lively, things are more up in the air.

Triston McKenzie opted to forgo surgery in 2023 when he was diagnosed with a UCL injury, and his 2024 season included 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA and noticeably lesser stuff on the mound. Cleveland picked up hard-throwing righty Luis Ortiz from the Pirates in the Andres Gimenez/Spencer Horwitz trade this offseason, but he’s something of a project, having yet to pitch a full season in a big league rotation. Swingman Jakob Junis signed a one-year deal within the past week and could factor into the rotation or serve as a long man in Stephen Vogt’s bullpen. Shane Bieber is back with the club on a two-year deal, but he’s rehabbing from his own Tommy John operation, performed April 12 last year. He’s not likely to be an option until May or June, and the rehab from any major surgery comes with the possibility of setbacks.

In all likelihood, Cleveland will open the season with a rotation including some combination of Bibee, Williams, Lively, Ortiz, McKenzie, Junis and Allen. Others on the 40-man roster include Joey Cantillo, Doug Nikhazy and Slade Cecconi, while non-roster hopefuls in camp include veterans Vince Velasquez and Kolby Allard.

There’s plenty of volume, but the Guards will need to continue showing their knack for coaxing quality performances out of unassuming pitchers if they’re to repeat as champions in an American League Central where they’ll face competition from the Tigers, Royals and Twins. Getting Means back in mid-August could serve the same effective boost as a trade deadline pickup, but only time will tell where his velocity will sit and what kind of workload he can be realistically expected to shoulder.

MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported that the Guardians were in “advanced talks” with Means. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com had the one-year agreement with a ’26 option. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported the $1MM guarantee, option value of up to $7.5MM, and the August return timeline. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the incentive breakdown.

Poll: The Dodgers’ Rotation

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The Dodgers have long been expected to utilize a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, and have accordingly assembled a deep group of arms. Last week, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that, with Ohtani not expected to debut as a pitcher until sometime in May, the Dodgers intend to open the season with a five-man rotation. Four of those spots will go to Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki. That fifth spot appears to be up for grabs, with the two leading candidates being a pair of arms that missed the 2024 season entirely due to injury: right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.

It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.

Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.

May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.

There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.

It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.

Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Nationals, Extensions, MLBTR Chat

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As spring training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Nationals 40-man move incoming:

The Nationals were reportedly nearing a deal with right-hander Lucas Sims earlier this week, and this morning MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman reports that Sims has a locker in the team’s clubhouse. Given that, it seems likely that the club will make Sims’ deal official at some point today. The Nationals will need to make room on the 40-man roster in order to bring Sims into the fold officially. Right-hander Mason Thompson is recovering from Tommy John surgery after undergoing the procedure last March, making him a potential candidate for the 60-day injured list, but it’s also possible he’ll be ready to return early enough in the season that the club doesn’t want to commit to shelving him for the first two months of the season.

2. Extension season underway:

The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not reach an extension before Guerrero’s self-imposed deadline yesterday, which took perhaps the winter’s highest-profile extension target off of the table. That same day, the Diamondbacks finalized an extension with shortstop Geraldo Perdomo that extends the team’s window of club control by three seasons. Spring training is the most common time for players and clubs to discuss the possibility of a longer-term deal. Pending free agents like Guerrero, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto have all seen their names surface in extension rumors. A team like the Red Sox could have extra motivation to try to lock up a trade acquisition (e.g. Garrett Crochet) after parting with significant prospect talent to acquire him. But, Perdomo’s extension serves as a reminder that many long-term deals for players still approaching or just entering arbitration come to fruition without virtually any buzz beforehand. As can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there were 25 spring extensions hammered out from 2022-24: six in 2024, 11 in 2023 and another eight in 2022.

3. MLBTR Chat:

Spring training is now officially underway, though a handful of of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents remain unsigned and some clubs still have more work to do before the start of the season. Whether you have a trade proposal in the back of your mind or questions about an upcoming camp battle this spring, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Expects To Reach Free Agency Without Extension

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Blue Jays position players reported to camp this morning for the club’s first full-squad workout of the spring, and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a deadline of today for extension talks with the club ahead of his final season under club control before free agency. That deadline has come and gone, and Guerrero told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) this morning that the sides did not reach a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Guerrero does not intend to negotiate during the season and now expects to reach free agency, while Hazel Mae relays (Video Link) that Guerrero noted he “would not close the door” on signing if Toronto brass presented him with a “realistic” offer.

Guerrero, still just 25 until March 16, is one of the most accomplished young players in the league and is likely to enter free agency as the most sought-after player available. A four-time All-Star with a Gold Glove award at first base and two Silver Slugger awards under his belt, Guerrero is a .288/.363/.500 (137 wRC+) hitter for his career. That type of offensive talent will always be enticing to clubs in free agency, but what makes Guerrero stand out as a top-of-the-class hitter is his combination of youth and ceiling.

Few hitters in the game can accomplish what Guerrero has in his peak seasons; his 2021 campaign was second only to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting as he hit .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+). His 48 home runs were tied with Salvador Perez for the most in the majors that year, and his .401 on-base percentage led the American League while trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in the NL. Steps back offensively in 2022 and ’23 raised questions regarding whether that otherworldly performance might be a fluke, but Guerrero squashed those concerns by more or less repeating his 2021 heroics this past season. Guerrero slashed a sensational .323/.396/.544 (165 wRC+) in 159 games for the Jays this past year, hitting “just” 30 homers in the process but making up for that with a career-best 44 doubles and a 13.8% strikeout rate that was the lowest of his career. Just nine qualified MLB hitters struck out less often than Guerrero in 2024, and among that group only Jose Ramirez and his 39-homer campaign were able to top Guerrero’s .221 isolated slugging percentage.

Reaching free agency on the heels of his age-26 season should make Guerrero all the more attractive in free agency come November. Guerrero will hit the open market just one year older than Juan Soto was during his own free agency this past winter, and that young age was crucial for Soto in securing his record-shattering deal that figures to pay him $765MM over the next 15 years and could max out at more than $800MM. That massive payday came in spite of Soto being a limited defender in the outfield corners who does not provide substantial value on the basepaths. While Soto is arguably in a class all his own as a hitter, with his career 158 wRC+ nearly matching Guerrero’s peak seasons, his record payday is still great news for the Jays’ slugger as there’s arguably no better comparison for Soto in the league than Guerrero at his peak.

Given that, it’s easy to imagine the bidding for Guerrero’s services surpassing half of a billion dollars. That seems to be right around where Guerrero set the bar in extension talks with Toronto, as reports regarding his asking price have suggested he was looking for north of $450MM. As Passan notes, Guerrero answered with a simple “No” when asked if the Blue Jays had put forth an offer that was close to his price point, and given Guerrero said earlier this winter that Toronto’s offer to him prior to Soto’s deal with the Mets sat at $340MM it’s hard to argue with his assessment unless the club brought their offer significantly higher over the course of the offseason.

Given the gap between the Guerrero’s rumored demands and the offer he said the Blue Jays made, it’s hardly a shock that the sides did not work out a deal. That’s reflected in a poll of MLBTR readers last month, where just 19.49% of respondents believed Guerrero would sign long-term with the club before today’s self-imposed deadline. Even so, Guerrero made clear to reporters that he’d still like to be a Blue Jay for life even as he went on to note that Toronto will now have to compete with 29 other clubs for his services on the open market. On the other hand, he also noted (as relayed by Matheson) his desire to win a World Series championship with his next club. That desire to win could hurt the Blue Jays’ odds of keeping Guerrero, as they finished dead last in a crowded AL East division with a 74-88 record. They appear to be longshots for the postseason this year as well after the Yankees and Orioles augmented their already playoff-caliber clubs while the Red Sox put together a strong offseason that saw them add multiple star players in Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.

As for the front office’s perspective, club GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters shortly after Guerrero did and expressed disappointment that a deal did not get done, as relayed by Matheson. Atkins went on to emphasize that the club “worked very hard” in their efforts to come together on a deal and added that the “motivation” on the organization’s part to keep their superstar in the fold is “still there.” Atkins refused to get into specifics regarding numbers and contract offers but described their offer to Guerrero as one that would’ve been record-setting for the Blue Jays and made Guerrero “one of the highest paid players” in baseball if signed (video link via Mae). Atkins also made clear that the club’s inability to get a deal done with Guerrero was not a matter of resources, though that’s hardly a surprise given their high-dollar bids for Ohtani and Soto the past two winters.

Going forward, the Blue Jays figure to continue trying to win during Guerrero’s final year of club control. They’ve long resisted the possibility of trade talks involving their star slugger and, after spending $166MM to add Yimi Garcia, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free agency this winter while adding another $96.5MM in trade by taking on the Andres Gimenez contract from the Guardians, it seems unlikely that they would change course now rather than push in for 2025 and hope they can convince Guerrero to return next offseason. It’s possible that they could revisit the possibility of dealing Guerrero at the trade deadline this summer if they’ve fallen completely out of the playoff picture by then, however, and if shopped Guerrero would be the most impactful rental moved at a trade deadline since Manny Machado in 2018.

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