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Archives for February 2025

Phillies, Christian Arroyo Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have signed infielder Christian Arroyo to a minor league deal, reports MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. The O’Connell Sports Management client will head to major league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Arroyo, 29, once ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects but never found his footing as a regular with the Giants, Rays or Red Sox. He’s a career .252/.299/.394 hitter in 992 plate appearances in the big leagues. Those numbers generally mirror the former first-round pick’s results in parts of seven seasons in Triple-A, where he carries a .255/.319/.403 line in 661 turns at the plate. The right-handed-hitting Arroyo has even platoon splits throughout his career.

Defensively, Arroyo has spent the bulk of his time in the majors at second base, but has has experience at all four infield spots and in right field. Defensive Runs Saves pegs him as a strong defender at second base, while Statcast has him around average. In the minors, Arroyo has played more shortstop than second base and also has nearly 1500 innings at third base.

Arroyo played in the majors in each season from 2017-23 but didn’t reach the big leagues in 2024. He spent last season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club, hitting .237/.305/.360 in a disappointing year at the plate. With the Phillies, he’ll compete for a bench spot and likely head to Triple-A Lehigh Valley if he doesn’t win a job. Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, out-of-options infielder Edmundo Sosa and standout defensive outfielder Johan Rojas seem like they’ll occupy three of the four spots. Weston Wilson, Buddy Kennedy (also out of options) and Kody Clemens are all on the 40-man roster and in the running for the final spot.

Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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Feb. 13: The Dodgers made it official today, announcing that they have signed Kershaw. Right-hander River Ryan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move.

Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.

In all, that $7.5MM base can more than double to $16MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season.

Feb. 11: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw have agreed to terms on a new deal, reports Alden González of ESPN. It was previously relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times that the lefty is in camp with the club. The deal isn’t official yet because the Excel Sports Management client still has to undergo a physical. The details of the new agreement aren’t yet publicly known. The Dodgers will need to open a 40-man spot but have several candidates to be moved to the 60-day injured list.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise at all. The future Hall-of-Famer has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point. He has gone into free agency multiple times and always re-signed. There has occasionally been some thought that he would like to join the Rangers, since he’s from the Dallas area, but that’s never come to fruition. On the heels of the Dodgers winning the most recent World Series, he declared himself a “Dodger for life.”

Kershaw, 37 in March, did turn down a $10MM player option for the 2025 season. Still, that seemed to be more of a formality, based on the strong relationship between him and the franchise. Even though he walked away from that money, the industry expectation has been that the two sides would reunite on some kind of new deal. As recently has a few weeks ago, it was reported that the two sides were interested in a reunion.

His current health situation is unknown. In early November, when he made the “Dodger for life” comment, Kershaw also relayed some details of upcoming surgeries. He told reporters at that time that he was to have work done on both his left toe and his left knee. He had dealt with bone spurs in his big toe during the season and also revealed after the campaign that he had a torn meniscus and a ruptured plantar plate that needed to be addressed.

It’s possible that his new deal will come with various incentives based on his output, as was the case the last time he re-signed with the Dodgers. He had surgery going into last winter and wasn’t expected to come back until midway through the 2024 schedule. He signed a deal with a modest $10MM guarantee over 2024 and 2025, with the latter year being a player option. Based on his 2024 appearances, he could earn an extra $7.5MM in 2024, as well as potentially bumping the $5MM option as high as $20MM. There were also incentives based on his 2025 appearances that could have allowed him to earn as much as $25MM on the year.

Kershaw only ended up throwing 30 innings over seven starts last year, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine. He started the season on the IL while still recovering from that shoulder surgery, getting reinstated in late July. But he was back on the IL by the end of August due to his toe issues and finished the season there. That wasn’t a huge showing but it was enough to get the base of his player option up to $10MM. Though he went back under the knife for his lower body injuries, he still felt comfortable enough turning that down, though he and the club will surely figure out some new arrangement that works for both.

Though it’s not a surprise to see Kershaw back with the club, there’s still some mystery about what’s next. As mentioned, it’s unclear if he’s fully healthy now or if he’s still working his way back from his most recent procedure.

On paper, the Dodgers have a robust collection of rotation options. They currently have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow taking up four spots. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be in the mix as well. Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to be ready by Opening Day but could be back on the hill in May.

The club seems likely to run a six-man rotation. That’s partially due to Sasaki making the move from Japan, where starting pitchers only throw once a week. On top of that, basically everyone else in their pile of starters has workload concerns. Snell only got to 104 innings last year and has only twice gone beyond 130. Yamamoto spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL and only got to 90 frames. Glasnow got to 134, which was a career high for him. May, Gonsolin and Ohtani were recovering from respective surgeries, with no one of that trio pitching last year.

Throw Kershaw into the mix and its eight starters for six spots, before even mentioning pitchers like Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius, who all have options and are likely to be in the minors as depth.

Given all the health question marks throughout the group, it’s unlikely to expect everyone to be healthy for the entire season, but there may be times where players get squeezed. Moving to the bullpen isn’t easy either, as the club is a bit squeezed there as well. With a six-man rotation, the club can only have seven relievers, given the 13-pitcher roster limit. Ohtani counts as a two-way player and will eventually allow them to have 14 pitchers, but he won’t be pitching to start the year.

The bullpen chart currently includes Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. No one in that group can be optioned except for Vesia, who had a 1.76 ERA last year. The bullpen is tight enough that Ryan Brasier recently got designated for assignment and flipped to the Cubs.

Time will tell how the Dodgers balance the juggling act, though the pressure on the 40-man roster is about to ease. Now that they have opened camp, they are allowed to transfer players to the 60-day injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are likely bound for the IL soon, with each recovering from a significant surgery. The Dodgers will need a roster spot for Kershaw once this becomes official, but that will still leave them with three roster spots to play with.

Financially, RosterResource has the Dodgers at a $383MM payroll and $386MM competitive balance tax figure. Those are both franchise records and tops in the league by wide margins, but the club seems to have few limits right now. They have international star power from Ohtani and various other players on the roster, with a decade-plus run of postseason appearances, in addition to being reigning world champions. The cash flow situation seems to be incredibly healthy, with the ownership group willing to pump a lot of that money back into the roster.

Trevor Rogers, Jorge Mateo Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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With camps opening for spring training, it’s common for clubs to provide updates on player health or the lack thereof. Orioles general manager Mike Elias today informed members of the media, including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that both left-hander Trevor Rogers and infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo are unlikely to be healthy by Opening Day.

The news on Mateo isn’t particularly surprising, as he underwent significant left elbow surgery in August. That was to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and add an internal brace, as well as repairing the flexor tendon. That procedure was on his non-throwing arm but the expected recovery timeline was still going to take a few months. The O’s have said at times that Mateo could perhaps be ready for a full season in 2025 but it now seems that his recovery will extend at least partway into the season.

The news on Rogers comes out of nowhere, as he didn’t spend any time on the injured list last year. Per Elias, he suffered a right kneecap subluxation in January. It’s unclear exactly how it happened but Rogers himself told Kubatko that it dislocated for about a second. Though the lefty downplayed the severity and said he’s already playing catch, he is apparently weeks behind schedule.

It appears it won’t be a devastating blow but it’s another frustrating development in what has already been a difficult Baltimore tenure for the southpaw. Acquired from the Marlins at the deadline last year, Rogers was torched for 15 earned runs in 19 innings over his first four starts as an Oriole and got optioned to Triple-A. He then made five starts for Norfolk with a 5.65 ERA to finish the year.

Going into 2025, he was likely blocked from securing a rotation gig to start the season. On top of his poor finish in 2024, the O’s added Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals to pad out the rotation alongside Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer.

Rogers is still optionable and may have been ticketed for another stint in Norfolk to start 2025 if he were healthy. An injury to those front five starters could have opened a path for him but he would be competing with guys like Albert Suárez, Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich for the #6 spot on the depth chart.

The O’s would obviously love for Rogers to get back into his 2021 form. With the Marlins that year, he made 25 starts with a 2.64 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. But his ERA climbed to 5.47 the following year and he spent most of 2023 on the injured list. He bounced back somewhat last year, with a 4.53 ERA prior to the trade, but then had his aforementioned struggles after the swap. The club will have a bit less pitching depth to start the year, though they have other options there. For Rogers personally, he’ll be a bit delayed in heading down the comeback trail.

Mateo would ideally be on the club’s bench, providing the Orioles with depth all over. In his career, he has played every position outside of the battery and first base. He’s not a huge hitter but is a threat to steal 30 bases a year, having done so twice, and gets strong marks for his glovework at several different spots. RosterResource currently projects the club’s four-man bench to consist of catcher Gary Sánchez and infielder Ramón Urías, with Ramón Laureano and Heston Kjerstad backing up the outfield. Kjerstad is the only one in that group who can be optioned to the minors, perhaps leaving him vulnerable to getting sent to the minors once Mateo is healthy unless someone else goes on the IL.

Mets Likely Done Adding, Not Expected To Bring Back Jose Iglesias

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An active offseason for the Mets looks to be largely completed. President of baseball operations David Stearns suggested during a session with the team’s beat yesterday that the Alonso deal was likely the team’s final big splash (video link via the Mets). Asked if felt he was done with major additions, Stearns replied:

“I think so. We’re always going to be involved in conversations. We’re always going to be trying to see if there are ways we can get better. We also feel really good about the group we have that’s reporting right now, and I would anticipate, by and large, that this is the team we’re going forward with.”

While it’s not a decisive declaration that there are no further transactions on the horizon, it seems likeliest that those would come via non-roster invitation. The Mets possesses a veteran roster that’s largely made up of players with five-plus years of MLB service or players who’ve exhausted their minor league options. Further veteran signings/acquisitions could exacerbate what’s already some fairly limited roster flexibility. Stearns’ response when asked whether the team was moving on from infielder Jose Iglesias is rather telling, in that regard:

“I think where we are now, for that role on our team, it’s important for us to keep some avenues open for some of our younger players. We think it’s important for us to have some roster flexibility with that spot. It’s really tough to freeze your entire position player roster. We did that for a portion last year, and we actually kind of got away with it, but there very easily could’ve been a circumstance where we got stuck with a completely frozen position player roster, so having some flexibility there in that role is, frankly, probably needed for us right now.”

That’s a disappointing reply for Mets fans who fell in love with Iglesias in what proved to be a renaissance campaign for the 35-year-old. Originally signed to a minor league deal, Iglesias was summoned to the majors at the end of May and became not only a highly productive role player but a fan and clubhouse favorite thanks to his OMG song that became a rallying cry. In 85 games, Iglesias took 291 plate appearances and batted .337/.381/.448. However, that production was way out of sync with his career norms (.279/.319/.382 entering the season) and was buoyed by a sky-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not likely to repeat.

Beyond some justifiable questions about Iglesias’ ability to sustain his 2024 output, the “flexibility” aspect of Stearns’ reply is worth drilling into a bit further. Right now, the only member of the Mets’ projected lineup who can be optioned to Triple-A is catcher Francisco Alvarez. They’ll have three bench players — backup catcher Luis Torrens, backup outfielder Tyrone Taylor and outfielder/DH Starling Marte — who cannot be optioned. (Outfielder Jose Azocar is also out of options, so he’ll need to earn a roster spot or else be DFA later in camp.)

Adding Iglesias would create a fourth, effectively “freezing” the team’s entire group of position players, as Stearns suggested. That could be a reason the team opted to bring infielder Nick Madrigal into the mix. He provides similar bat-to-ball skills and infield versatility but also has a minor league option remaining, which will create more flexibility as the season wears on.

It’s similar on the pitching staff. Kodai Senga and David Peterson are the only starters who can be optioned. Reed Garrett is the only member of the projected ’pen who can be optioned. Each of Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Ryne Stanek, Jose Butto, Griffin Canning, Danny Young and Sean Reid-Foley is either out of options or past five years of MLB service.

That lack of flexibility is magnified when there’s a player in the lineup who perhaps needs two to four days off but probably not a full IL stint. It’s also notable when a specific reliever or the relief corps as a whole is overworked and the team would like to add a fresh arm to the mix. There could very well be some uncomfortable DFAs on the horizon for the Mets, though injuries or poor spring performances can make those decisions easier.

If the Mets are indeed done, they’ll enter the 2025 season with the game’s No. 2 payroll, trailing only the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles. Stearns noted that he and owner Steve Cohen mapped out various scenarios regarding their potential payroll early in the offseason, and the point at which the Mets have now landed was toward the highest ranges the pair discussed at the time. RosterResource projects the Mets for a $331MM payroll, with $325MM on their luxury-tax ledger.

Reds Sign Scott Barlow

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February 13: The Reds officially announced Barlow’s deal today. Right-hander Julian Aguiar was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. Aguiar had Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season. Per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, Barlow’s deal breaks down as a $1.5MM salary and $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option for 2026.

February 11: The Reds and free agent reliever Scott Barlow are in agreement on a one-year, $2.5MM contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Warner Sports client’s agreement is still pending the completion of a physical.

Barlow, 32, was brilliant for the Royals from 2021-22, pitching to a combined 2.30 earned run average with a 28.2% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate en route to tallying 40 saves and 20 holds. He’s taken a couple steps back in the two seasons since, providing a still-serviceable 4.32 ERA but diminished velocity and strikeout/walk rates that have trended in the wrong direction.

The Guardians, who had MLB’s best bullpen in 2024, wound up designating Barlow for assignment and releasing him in mid-September. He’d have been postseason-ineligible with a new club at that point and was ticketed to go back into free agency following the season, so he didn’t end up signing with a new club.

Last year’s 91.4 mph average four-seamer with the Guardians was a career-low for Barlow, sitting nearly four miles per hour shy of his average 95.3 mph from 2021. Since Opening Day 2023, he’s fanned 27% of his opponents against a 12% walk rate while suiting up for Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland.

Even with the reduced velocity and worsening command, there are still positives to take away from Barlow’s 2024 season. His 13.5% swinging-strike rate remained comfortably north of the 11.5% league average. He doesn’t induce chases off the plate as much as he did at his peak. His opponents’ contact rate when they do chase is south of 41%, placing him in the top-10 of all 169 qualified big league relievers in that department. His opponents’ 83.9% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple percentage points shy of average. Barlow’s four-seamer and sinker don’t have the life they used to, but his slider and curveball both miss bats at super premium rates and induce weak contact when opponents do put bat to ball.

Beyond those sharp breaking pitches and their ability to miss bats, Barlow offers a simpler benefit to manager Terry Francona: durability. The right-hander made his big league debut late in 2018 and has never been on the major league injured list. He’s made at least 61 appearances in each of the past five 162-game seasons and pitched in more than half the Royals’ 60 games (32) during the shortened 2020 campaign. Perhaps that heavy workload has contributed to his declining velocity, but Barlow is as durable as it gets for a reliever these days. Since 2019, only Hector Neris has appeared in more games than Barlow’s 359, and no reliever has more innings than Barlow’s 372.

Barlow will slot into a setup role in a reshaped Cincinnati bullpen. Alexis Diaz will reprise his role as closer, but setup man Fernando Cruz was sent to the Yankees in exchange for catcher Jose Trevino. The Reds picked up Taylor Rogers in a late trade with the Giants, too. Newcomers Rogers and Barlow will join holdovers Diaz, Emilio Pagan, Sam Moll, Tony Santillan and Brent Suter. The final couple spots in the ’pen will likely be determined in spring training. Former starters Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers are among the favorites — Spiers likely in swingman role — but the Reds have Yosver Zulueta and Lyon Richardson on the 40-man roster vying for spots as well (if Richardson isn’t in the Triple-A rotation). Non-roster options in camp include Alex Young, Ian Gibaut, Albert Abreu, Joe La Sorsa and Francona favorite (from their days in Cleveland) Bryan Shaw.

Pirates Hire Daniel Vogelbach As Special Assistant

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The Pirates announced Wednesday that they’ve hired Daniel Vogelbach as a special assistant to their hitting department (relayed by Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). While there’d been no word that the 32-year-old had ended his playing career, it seems he’s moving on to his post-playing days.

Vogelbach played parts of nine seasons in the majors. The lefty-hitting first baseman/designated hitter earned an All-Star nod with the Mariners amidst a 30-homer showing in 2019. That was his best full season until 2022. Vogelbach signed a one-year free agent deal with Pittsburgh that came with a modest $1MM base salary. It was a shrewd pickup, as he hit .228/.338/.430 over 75 games. The Bucs moved him early in trade season in a swap for reliever Colin Holderman, who projects as one of their better leverage arms this season.

After landing in Queens, Vogelbach hit .255/.393/.436 for the stretch run. He played well enough for New York to bring him back for the ’23 season, though his numbers dropped to a pedestrian .233/.339/.404 slash. Vogelbach appeared in 31 games early last year for the Blue Jays in what appears to be his final major league action.

If he is officially retiring, he’ll do so with a .219/.340/.405 batting line over 602 big league contests. Vogelbach hit 81 homers and drove in 246 runs while suiting up for five teams. He clearly made a strong impression on the Pittsburgh front office and coaching staff during his few months there as a player. MLBTR sends our best wishes to Vogelbach on the next stage of his career.

Braves Sign Jake Marisnick To Minor League Deal

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Outfielder Jake Marisnick is in camp with the Braves as a non-roster invitee, reports Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That indicates the Equity Baseball client signed a minor league deal with the club.

Marisnick, 34 in March, signed a minor league deal with the Angels last winter. He spent the year playing in Triple-A for that club, getting into just 54 games around a few stints on the injured list. He performed well, hitting .283/.368/.551, but didn’t get called to the majors.

The veteran has an established track record at this point as a glove-first outfielder. From his 2013 debut to the present, he has logged 5,357 innings on the grass with 80 Defensive Runs Saved and 52 Outs Above Average. The latter method didn’t come into existence until 2016, so the sample size is a bit smaller. Only nine outfielders have a higher DRS tally during Marisnick’s career and all but one of them spent more time out there than him. He’s also 11th on the OAA board, again trailing only one player with a smaller sample of innings played.

However, his offensive contributions have been less consistent. He’s had a few good showings with the bat but has hit .228/.281/.385 in his career overall. That production translates to a wRC+ of 81, meaning he’s been 19% below average on the whole.

Atlanta has some question marks in its outfield. Ronald Acuña Jr. is still recovering from tearing his ACL last year and could miss about a month of the season. Until he’s back, the projected outfield consists of Michael Harris II and Jurickson Profar in two spots. A third spot could perhaps be a platoon between Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz.

Profar is coming off a monster season at the plate but has been wildly inconsistent and isn’t a great fielder. Kelenic’s production has been up-and-down, both offensively and defensively. De La Cruz is a poor defender and is coming off the worst offensive showing of his career thus far.

The club has Carlos Rodriguez and Eli White on the roster, but White is out of options and might get squeezed. Rodriguez hasn’t yet made his major league debut and has just 31 games of Triple-A experience. The club previously brought in Conner Capel for some non-roster depth and now Marisnick gives them a bit more. If a path opens up to some playing time, he’ll give Atlanta a glove-first outfield option off the bench.

Padres Reportedly Expected To Keep Dylan Cease, Michael King

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12:01pm: President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was asked about the Cease rumors today. “He’s a very big part of our club,” Preller said, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”

10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.

It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.

The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.

The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.

Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.

Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.

Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.

The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.

Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.

RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.

The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.

They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.

It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.

For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.

Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.

Poll: Who’s The Best Starting Pitcher Remaining?

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The top remaining free agent starter came off the board last night, when right-hander Nick Pivetta agreed with the Padres on a backloaded four-year deal that includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons. It’s a major shift from last winter, when top-of-the-market lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both lingered on the market deep into March and ultimately missed the start of the season while making up for lost Spring Training reps in the minor leagues. This winter, almost all of the top free agents have already landed somewhere as teams begin their first official workouts, with just five of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents of the offseason (and zero of the top 20) still unsigned.

Four of the five remaining free agents in our Top 50 are starting pitchers. None of them compare to Snell and Montgomery’s stature as free agents last winter, or even Pivetta’s stature as the last mid-market arm available in this year’s market. Even so, each is a clearly useful arm who would help the majority of pitching staffs around baseball this year if signed. Which one should pitching-hungry teams be most interested in, however? A look at all four, in the order they appear on the Top 50:

Andrew Heaney

Heaney is entering his age-34 campaign in 2025 in a different position than his previous trips through free agency. He signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2022 season as a bounce-back candidate coming off a disastrous 2021 campaign, and after delivering excellent results for L.A. in 72 2/3 innings he signed a fresh deal with the Rangers as a risky but high-upside mid-rotation addition. His performance over two years in Texas didn’t play to that high-risk, high-reward narrative that surrounded his free agency, however, as he performed as a fairly run-of-the-mill back of the rotation arm.

In 307 1/3 innings of work for Texas over the past two years, Heaney pitched to a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His 23.2% strikeout rate during that time is a far cry from not only the incredible 35.5% rate he flashed with the Dodgers, but also 26% clip he struck out opponents at from 2016 to 2021. Heaney has emerged from years of injury questions to serve as a fairly steady source of innings, with his 160 frames in 2024 being the most he’s posted in a season since 2018. There’s some room for upside in the veteran’s profile as well, with gains in walk rate (5.9%) and barrel rate (8.3%) last year suggesting he may be able to improve upon last year’s results.

Jose Quintana

Entering his age-36 season, Quintana has the most impressive resume of the pitchers discussed here. He’s a former All-Star who delivered front-of-the-rotation production at his peak with the White Sox. While those days are long behind him, he’s remained effective into his mid-30s. The southpaw signed with the Mets on the heels of a terrific 2022 with the Pirates and Cardinals where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP in 32 starts. The results in New York weren’t quite that good, but he was still capable of delivering solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation production in Queens with a 3.70 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.24 FIP in 246 innings of work.

Those results would be valuable in the No. 4 or 5 spot of most rotations, but a look under the hood reveals a somewhat more worrying profile. Quintana has struck out just 18.8% of opponents in each of the past two campaigns. His typically sharp command waned a bit in 2024, with an 8.8% walk rate that clocked in slightly north of average. That left him with the third-worst K-BB% among 58 qualified starters in the majors last year, ahead of only Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. On the other hand, his 47.4% groundball rate was tenth-best, and only six qualified starters allowed line drives at a lower clip. If he can continue those levels of contact management, it’s easy to imagine him having success in front of a strong defense.

Kyle Gibson

Gibson is the prototypical innings eater, a back-of-the-rotation arm who has posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in his entire career who makes up for that with volume. Besides his half-season as a rookie back in 2013 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Gibson has made at least 25 starts with at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every single season of his career. He’s averaged just over 30 starts and approximately 175 innings per season in those years. It’s a level of volume that’s hard to find in the the current era of pitching, and any team with instability in their rotation would stand to benefit from plugging Gibson into the mix.

However, Gibson’s status as one of the league’s more reliable arms comes with very limited upside. In 12 years as a big league pitcher, the right-hander has eclipsed 3.0 fWAR just once. He’s also begun to show some minor signs of decline that can’t be entirely ignored headed into his age-37 campaign; his 9.4% walk rate was elevated relative to his career norms, but more concerning was the 9.2% barrel rate he allowed that was tenth-worst among all qualified starters last year. Last year’s 13 quality starts were also the fewest he’s posted in a full season since 2019.

Spencer Turnbull

Turnbull stands out among this crowd of veterans as the youngest arm, entering his age-32 campaign this year. The righty also has by far the shortest track record of the four arms discussed here, with just 356 2/3 total innings in the majors under his belt across parts of six big league seasons. Once a promising young rotation prospect with the Tigers, Turnbull’s career was turned upside down by injuries. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a single season since 2019.

For all his lack of volume, Turnbull was excellent when healthy for the Phillies last year. He struck out 26.1% of opponents en route to a 2.65 ERA in a swing role, and while his 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA are both less impressive they still paint him as a well above-average pitcher when healthy. Of all the pitchers listed here, Turnbull has the largest injury track record, but he’s also perhaps the best on a rate basis and the likeliest to deliver results that could put him in line for meaningful playoff innings.

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While the four pitchers discussed were the ones who made the cut for MLBTR’s Top 50 back in November, other interesting starters also remain available. Lance Lynn has flashed front-of-the-rotation production at points in his career and had a solid 3.84 ERA in 23 starts last year, but has also struggled badly at times and will pitch his age-38 season this year. Jakob Junis has pitched more out of the bullpen than the rotation in recent years but sports a strong 3.35 ERA in the past two seasons and started 17 games for the Giants in 2022. John Means is clearly quite talented but has only pitched 52 innings across the past three seasons due to multiple arm surgeries. He’ll be sidelined into the summer after UCL surgery last June.

Which of free agency’s remaining starters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:

Andre Pallante Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus Cardinals

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Right-hander Andre Pallante won his arbitration hearing against the Cardinals, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll be paid the $2.1MM sum he and his reps at Wasserman requested rather than the $1.925MM figure submitted by the team. Pallante was one of three Cardinals players to go to a hearing; the team won its hearing over utilityman Brendan Donovan and lost a hearing versus Lars Nootbaar. Both results were handed down yesterday.

Pallante, 26, worked his way into the St. Louis rotation last year and looks ticketed for a starting role again in 2025. The right-hander logged a 3.78 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and enormous 61.8% ground-ball rate in 121 1/3 innings over 29 appearances (20 starts). That 3.78 earned run average is a dead match for his career mark in what’s now a total of 297 1/3 innings.

This was Pallante’s first trip through arbitration. He’s picked up 2.145 years of big league service thus far, making him a Super Two player who’ll be arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three. The Cardinals can control him for four more years, all the way through 2028. He still has one minor league option remaining, though as long as he continues at the pace he’s established in his first three MLB seasons, that’s not going to come into play anytime soon.

Pallante figures to join Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in the Cards’ Opening Day rotation — provided all are healthy. The Cardinals bought out 2025 club options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn but otherwise haven’t made any changes in the rotation — or really to the broader roster at large — despite a stated goal of getting younger and focusing on player development this coming season.

With Pallante’s salary now set, the Cardinals’ payroll checks in just shy of $148MM, per RosterResource. That’s a reduction of about $35MM, all of which was accomplished by parting with Gibson and Lynn and letting Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton walk as free agents.

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