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Archives for January 2025

The Opener: Kim, Arbitration, Scherzer

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As the MLB offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Kim’s posting window draws closed:

KBO infielder Hyeseong Kim has just under 32 hours remaining in his posting window, which is set to close at 4pm CT tomorrow. MLBTR ranked Kim as the #26 free agent available in our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted a three-year, $28MM deal for Kim at the outset of the offseason. With that being said, it’s worth noting that the earning power of international free agents can be difficult to predict as Kim’s fellow countryman Jung Hoo Lee demonstrated last winter when he signed a nine-figure deal with the Giants that blew past all expectations at the time of his posting.

There’s been few concrete rumors regarding Kim’s free agency to this point in the offseason, and with so little known about Kim’s free agency it’s difficult to predict which teams may be interested in the infielder or if he could consider returning to the Kiwoom Heroes in 2025 if he’s unable to find a contract to his liking. Kim is primarily a second baseman but has plenty of experience at shortstop as well and is generally regarded as a strong defender who should have little trouble handling third base if needed. The Mariners, Yankees, Angels, Cubs, Padres, and Brewers are among a number of teams who could make sense as potential suitors for a versatile infielder like Kim.

2. Arbitration filing deadline approaches:

Arbitration-eligible players around the league have to either reach an agreement with their club or face an arbitration hearing each winter, and decision day is rapidly approaching for those players this winter. The deadline to file for arbitration is one week from today on January 9. While teams and players are free to negotiate even after filing, clubs have increasingly used next week’s deadline as a cutoff for negotiations, taking what’s been termed a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration. The majority of arb-level players typically sign before the deadline in order to avoid arbitration, as Royals right-hander Kyle Wright did last month. Many more players figure to follow in Wright’s footsteps over the next week, including what’s sure to be a rush of deals on the day of the deadline.

3. Scherzer’s market heating up?

Reporting yesterday indicated that four teams are involved in the market for future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, though no specific clubs have been connected to the veteran hurler. At age 40, Scherzer is coming off an injury-marred season and is no longer the perennial contender for Cy Young awards that he was during his peak. Even so, the right-hander has remained valuable when healthy, with a 3.81 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 26.8% strikeout rate over the past two seasons. The eight-time All-Star is among the highest upside players still on the market and offers a relatively low-cost alternative to the top hurlers remaining on the market, Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, while standing out in a crowd of veterans searching for one-year deals as the most impactful option at that level of the market now that Walker Buehler is off the board.

MLB Mailbag: Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Mariners, Torkelson, Alonso, Bregman

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Welcome to the first mailbag of 2025!  In this one we get into what the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mariners might do, the future of first basemen Spencer Torkelson and Pete Alonso, outfield options for the Astros, various Alex Bregman destinations, and much more.

John asks:

Braves fan here wondering if the Braves will re-sign AJ Minter?

Bill asks:

With market choices dwindling whom might Atlanta pursue in the pitcher/outfield categories? Or will they rely on young pitching hopes and current outfield options?

Phillip asks:

What do you see the Atlanta Braves doing? We need another outfielder, starting pitcher, and 2 relief pitchers. Are we going to be thrifty or are we going for quality?

Bruce asks:

Can you predict what the usually unpredictable Alex Anthopolous will acquire to play LF and SS and SP down the 2025 Atlanta Braves?

In attempting to guess how the rest of the Braves' offseason will go, it may be helpful to first project their payroll.  President of baseball operations and GM Alex Anthopoulos said in October payroll would be going up.

The Braves' actions thus far this offseason do not match those of a team planning to increase payroll: declining Travis d'Arnaud's option, dumping Jorge Soler, moving money around with the Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer extensions (though not in a way that helps their CBT payroll), non-tendering Ramon Laureano, and most importantly, failing to sign any notable free agents.  It's also true that Anthopoulos' October comments came before the Braves learned more information about the timelines of Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Joe Jimenez.  I could see how that would affect payroll allocation, but not why it would affect the total payroll.

The Braves appear to have a $220MM CBT payroll at present, and on December 11th David O'Brien of The Athletic wrote that the Braves "don’t seem inclined to go too far above that $241 million [luxury tax] threshold."  That's after running a $276MM CBT payroll in 2024.  Perhaps in his October "payroll is going up" comments, Anthopoulos was threading a needle where the team's 26-man Opening Day actual payroll will increase, but their CBT payroll will not.  Last year's Opening Day actual payroll was $222MM and the team is at $197MM at present.  It's also likely the team would like to keep powder dry for midseason additions.

Given O'Brien's comment, we probably shouldn't project much more than $25MM in additional AAV to be added this offseason.  The second tax threshold of $261MM could be a ceiling on the CBT payroll.  So how might Anthopoulos improve the team with many major names now off the board?

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Padres, Moises Gomez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres agreed to a minor league contract with Moisés Gómez last month, according to the MLB.com transaction log. The 26-year-old corner outfielder had been outrighted and released by the Cardinals last season.

Gómez is working to get to the big leagues for the first time. He seemed on track after hitting 39 homers in the minor leagues in 2022. That earned him a 40-man roster spot with St. Louis. Gómez spent the entire ’23 campaign on optional assignment to their Triple-A affiliate. He popped another 30 homers but hit .232 with a .293 on-base percentage. That wasn’t enough to crack the MLB roster. St. Louis sent him through outright waivers last February.

The righty-hitting outfielder again opened the season at the Triple-A level. He hit .208 and saw his power production evaporate, as he only managed three longballs in 45 games before being released. Gómez closed the season in the independent American Association. He has mashed in winter ball in his native Venezuela this offseason. Gómez is hitting .273/.396/.613 with 15 longballs in 48 winter ball games.

San Diego will give him an opportunity to rebound from his difficult past two seasons. Gómez has big power, hitting 127 homers in parts of nine minor league seasons between the Tampa Bay and St. Louis systems. That includes 49 longballs in fewer than 1000 Triple-A plate appearances, though he’s a .236/.303/.452 hitter at that level. He has punched out in nearly a third of his trips to the plate in Triple-A.

Where Can Astros Turn For A Left-Handed Outfielder?

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After last month’s Kyle Tucker trade, the outfield is the biggest question for the Astros. Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are lined up to start in center and right field, respectively. Meyers is a defensive stalwart without much offensive upside. McCormick has been a very good hitter in the past, but he’s coming off the worst season of his career.

Left field is completely open. While Yordan Alvarez could get a few starts there, the Astros want to use him mostly as a designated hitter. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell, who started one major league game last season, is Houston’s projected left fielder at RosterResource. Trammell is coming off a strong season in Triple-A, but he’s 27 years old and has a .167/.270/.368 batting line over 359 MLB plate appearances. If not Trammell, utility player Mauricio Dubón would probably get the majority of the playing time. Houston still expects to compete for an AL West title. They’ll need to add at least one outfielder before Opening Day.

General manager Dana Brown has acknowledged as much. Houston is looking for a left-handed hitter, in particular, potentially allowing them to spell McCormick or Meyers. The Astros project narrowly above the competitive balance tax threshold and don’t seem likely to make a play for Anthony Santander. If they’re dealing with a tighter budget, where could they look?

Free Agency

Jurickson Profar: Profar might be out of their financial comfort zone as well. As of last month, the switch-hitting left fielder was looking for a deal of at least three years. He’s the best non-Santander outfielder available in free agency. Profar has had an up-and-down career but is coming off by far his best season. He hit .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers behind massively improved exit velocities. He’ll turn 32 in February, but the Astros have made three-year free agent commitments to much older hitters (i.e. José Abreu and Christian Walker). Profar is an ideal fit on paper, but the money could be an issue.

Alex Verdugo: For most of his Red Sox tenure, Verdugo was a capable if mercurial everyday player. He hit .281/.338/.424 across four seasons in Boston. The Sox traded him to the Yankees, who stuck with him as their regular left fielder amidst the worst season of his career. Verdugo finished the year with a .233/.291/.356 slash across 621 plate appearances. Almost all the positives came in the first month of the season. Verdugo carried a .267/.358/.446 line into May. He hit .225/.275/.336 over his final 501 plate appearances. Verdugo doesn’t turn 29 until May, so he’s a plausible rebound candidate, but that’d be less risky for a fringe contender than it is for a true win-now team like Houston. He’s likely looking at a one-year pillow deal, probably for less than the $10MM that Max Kepler received from Philadelphia.

Jesse Winker: Outside of Profar, Winker probably has the best offensive profile of this group. He hit .258/.366/.422 with 13 homers in 404 plate appearances against righty pitching last season. He’s a career .276/.379/.462 hitter with the platoon advantage. Winker isn’t a huge threat against lefties, but he can hit right-handers. The big drawback is the defensive profile. He’s a poor defender in left field who should primarily be a designated hitter. The Astros would either need to have him divide left field work with Alvarez or play Winker there regularly if they want to keep their superstar DH off his feet. Maybe they feel the Crawford Boxes and limited left field to cover in Houston makes that worthwhile. Winker might be able to get two years but shouldn’t be all that expensive.

Jason Heyward: Heyward finished the 2024 season in Houston after being released by the Dodgers. He hit four homers in 24 regular season contests and started one of their Division Series games against the Tigers. While it was a fairly strong finish, Heyward had hit .208/.289/.393 across 197 plate appearances with Los Angeles. He’s at best a strong-side platoon option and might be a better fit for a bench role going into his age-35 season. He’d be available for one year and a base salary of a few million dollars.

David Peralta: Peralta has a similar profile to Heyward. He’s a former above-average regular who has settled into a platoon role in his late 30s. He’s coming off a nice season for the Padres, hitting .267/.335/.415 across 260 plate appearances. The Astros would probably prefer to bring Heyward back if they’re going this route, but Peralta had better numbers in 2024.

Trade Candidates

Jesús Sánchez: Outside of Sandy Alcántara and the dead money owed to released outfielder Avisaíl García, Sánchez projects as the highest-paid player on the Marlins. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM salary in his second of four trips through arbitration. That’s hardly exorbitant, but Miami has shown a willingness to move virtually anyone amidst their full rebuild. Sánchez is a former top prospect who has settled in as a low-end regular in the big leagues. He’s coming off a .252/.313/.417 showing with 18 homers and 16 stolen bases — his second straight league average offensive performance. He’s a roughly average defender in either corner. The 27-year-old may not have the upside that many prospect evaluators had hoped, but he’d be an upgrade over Trammell.

Mike Yastrzemski: The Giants seemed likely to deal one of their arbitration-eligible players at the start of the offseason. Yastrzemski, who agreed to a $9.25MM salary in his final year of club control, seemed the most logical candidate. San Francisco has been quiet since pulling off the Willy Adames deal, however, so they might not be looking to shed payroll to open additional free agent pursuits. Yastrzmeski is coming off a .231/.302/.437 showing with 18 homers through 474 trips to the plate.

Willi Castro: Castro is a switch-hitting utility player who has more than 800 innings of left field experience. He has had a solid two-year run in Minnesota, hitting .251/.334/.395 in 1044 plate appearances. Castro was a nice find for the Twins’ front office, who inked him to a minor league deal after he’d been non-tendered by the Tigers. He’s in his final winter of arbitration and projected for a $6.2MM salary. Minnesota highly values his versatility and clubhouse presence, so they’re probably not keen on moving him. Yet the Twins are working with an extremely tight budget and have done nothing in free agency. Trading Castro would be one way to open a bit of payroll space.

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There are a few other trade candidates if Houston wanted to take a bigger swing. Players like Wilyer Abreu, Jake McCarthy and Alec Burleson could be available. They’d require a stronger prospect return than any of Sánchez, Yastrzmeski or Castro, however. That seems unlikely considering the Astros dealt Tucker because they wanted to add talent to a very thin farm system without giving up on the upcoming season.

Angels, Sebastian Rivero Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels signed catcher Sebastián Rivero to a minor league contract last month, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. It’s unclear if he’ll be invited to major league Spring Training.

Rivero, 26, has two seasons of major league experience. He played in 34 games for the Royals between 2021-22, hitting .167 without a home run over 73 trips to the plate. Kansas City released him after the ’22 campaign. The Venezuelan-born catcher has spent the past two seasons in the upper minors, dividing his time between the White Sox and Braves organizations. He hit .186/.239/.249 in 75 games between Double-A and Triple-A in the Atlanta system a year ago. Rivero has been playing winter ball, where he’s hitting .182 in 21 games.

While there’s clearly not a ton of offensive upside, Rivero adds catching depth to the upper levels of the minors. He has started nearly 400 games and caught almost 3500 innings in his minor league career. Rivero has cut down around a quarter of attempted basestealers in each of the last two seasons.

Logan O’Hoppe and Travis d’Arnaud will divide the catching duties at Angel Stadium. Recent trade pickup Chuckie Robinson projects as the top depth option as the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. They hadn’t had any non-roster catchers with major league experience before signing Rivero, who could back Robinson up at Triple-A Salt Lake.

Latest On Max Scherzer

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With the rotation market moving more quickly than the rest of free agency, the number of unsigned starting pitchers is dwindling. Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and potential reliever conversion Jeff Hoffman are at the top of the class. Beyond that, teams are evaluating pitchers who’ll likely be limited to one- or two-year commitments.

Max Scherzer may be the most intriguing of those short-term targets. The future Hall of Famer was limited to nine starts and 43 1/3 innings during his final season with the Rangers. Scherzer has made clear that he has no plans to retire. He’ll be back for his age-40 campaign in hopes of a healthier, more productive season.

In a live stream for Bleacher Report this afternoon, Jon Heyman suggested that Scherzer is fielding interest from four teams. Heyman indicated that the market “is heating up a bit,” so it’s possible that the three-time Cy Young winner could come off the board in the relatively near future.

Scherzer opened the ’24 season on the injured list as he finished rehab from last December’s back surgery. Nerve irritation in his throwing hand delayed his return until late June. Scherzer made eight starts before going back on the shelf with shoulder fatigue. That kept him out into September. His season concluded after one additional start because of a strained left hamstring.

A pitcher battling multiple injuries, including back surgery, at age 40 is obviously going to raise concerns. Scherzer is only one season removed from starting 30 games and topping 160 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He’d surpassed 170 innings in every full schedule between 2009-21. Until last year, he’d been incredibly durable.

Scherzer remains productive when he’s able to pitch, albeit not at a Cy Young level. He turned in a 3.77 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate between the Mets and Rangers in 2023. Last season, he allowed just under four earned runs per nine with a diminished 22.6% strikeout percentage. Scherzer still got a ton of chases and whiffs on a per-pitch basis though. His 14.6% swinging strike rate ranked fifth among starting pitchers with 40+ innings. Only Blake Snell, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease missed bats at a higher rate.

Aside from perhaps Flaherty, Scherzer arguably has the highest ceiling for next season alone of any unsigned starter. There’s also significant risk because of the recent spate of injuries. Scherzer will almost certainly be limited to a one-year contract, so the long-term downside is limited, but he should command a strong salary.

Alex Cobb landed $15MM from the Tigers coming off a season in which he combined for 23 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He recently turned 37 and doesn’t miss bats at anywhere near the rate Scherzer does. It stands to reason that Scherzer and his representation at the Boras Corporation will be aiming to beat Cobb money, perhaps in pursuit of a contract closer to $20MM.

Heyman’s report doesn’t specify any of the teams involved in the bidding. Speculatively speaking, the Braves, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals and Mets are among the teams that could have some spending room and a desire for a short-term upside play. Scherzer isn’t going to sign with a team that doesn’t have a path to contention, but there are very few truly rebuilding clubs right now. Every team aside from Colorado, Miami and the White Sox may feel they have a path to a Wild Card spot.

Free Agent Faceoff: Justin Turner / J.D. Martinez

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Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.

Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.

Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.

Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.

As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.

With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.

It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.

On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.

So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?

White Sox Acquire Tyler Gilbert

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The White Sox have acquired left-hander Tyler Gilbert from the Phillies, per an announcement from Philadelphia. Chicago sent right-hander Aaron Combs back to the Phillies in exchange for Gilbert’s services. Gilbert had been designated for assignment by the Phillies prior to the holidays. The White Sox designated infielder Braden Shewmake for assignment to make room for Gilbert on their 40-man roster.

Gilbert, 31, pitched just 8 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year after signing a minor league deal with the Reds last winter and being traded to Philadelphia back in May. A sixth-round pick by the Phillies back in 2015, he was surrendered to Arizona in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft and made his big league debut as a Diamondback during the 2021 season. The lefty had a rather impressive rookie season, as he posted a 3.15 ERA (135 ERA+) with a 4.27 FIP in 40 innings of work for the Snakes spread between six starts and three relief appearances. The highlight of his rookie campaign (and of his career to this point) was a no-hitter in his first career MLB start, where he struck out five Padres while walking three over his nine hitless innings of work.

Unfortunately, Gilbert’s next two seasons in the desert didn’t go quite as well. He struggled to a 5.23 ERA with a 5.10 FIP in 51 2/3 innings of work between 2022 and ’23, with a paltry 17.9% strikeout rate and a penchant for allowing home runs being the main culprits of the lefty’s difficulties. Those difficulties led to Gilbert being outrighted off the club’s roster following the 2023 season, which led to him electing free agency and signing that aforementioned minor league deal in Cincinnati. After rejoining the Phillies, Gilbert posted a solid enough 3.24 ERA in 8 1/3 innings of work at the big league level and paired that with an excellent run of outings at Triple-A, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 40 frames across 31 appearances for the club’s LeHigh Valley affiliate. Impressive as those minor league numbers were, however, Gilbert found himself squeezed off the club’s 40-man roster just before the holidays due to the Jesús Luzardo trade.

Now that he’s in Chicago, Gilbert could find himself in the mix for starts at the big league level in what figures to be a fairly wide-open competition for starts on the south side. Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson, and Drew Thorpe all seem likely to be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation if healthy, but beyond that trio a number of possible options exist including Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Jake Eder, Ky Bush, and Nick Nastrini. If Gilbert doesn’t make the club’s rotation, it’s to imagine him providing left-handed relief depth alongside Jared Shuster and Cam Booser for the club this year.

In return for Gilbert’s services, the Phillies add a right-handed minor leaguer in Combs. The White Sox’ eighth rounder in the 2024 draft, Combs has just 7 2/3 innings of work at the minor league level under his belt but struck out an impressive 39.4% of opponents at the Single-A level in his pro debut down the stretch last year. Prior to being drafted, Combs posted a 3.24 ERA in 66 2/3 innings of work pitching in the SEC. The youngster just turned 23 last week and is hardly a sure bet to influence the club in 2025, but the impressive stuff he flashed last season could carry him through the minors fairly quickly.

In order to fit Gilbert on their roster, the White Sox part ways with Shewmake. The 27-year-old was a first-round pick by the Braves in 2019 and eventually made his big league debut with the club in 2023, though that cup of coffee lasted just two games and ended before Shewmake recorded his first big league hit. He was shipped to Chicago last winter as part of the trade that brought Aaron Bummer to Atlanta, but dealt with injuries during his first year in Chicago and was limited to just 39 games between Triple-A and the majors. Those games did not go especially well, as he posted a .152/.152/.182 slash line in ten minor league games. That’s more or less in line with what he did in the majors, as well: in 67 trips to the plate, Shewmake hit just .125/.134/.203 (-15 wRC+). The White Sox will have one week to waive or trade Shewmake, and if he clears waivers successfully they’ll have the opportunity to outright him to the minors as non-roster depth for the coming season.

Where Will Alex Bregman End Up?

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December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list come off the board. Left-hander Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the final day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Max Fried (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, and Corbin Burnes (#2) snuck in a deal with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 came to a close. That leaves just one free agent in the top six on the board as we turn towards 2025: infielder Alex Bregman, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #3 free agent at the outset of the winter back in November.

Over his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman has made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star, and a winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t managed to recapture the 8-win form he flashed at his peak in the years since then, he’s remained a well above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. An average of four-plus wins a year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently connected to Bregman this winter, while other suitors of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It’s a market that seems fairly robust, with multiple big market clubs interested.

With that being said, however, Bregman’s leverage in free agency may not be as strong as it was even a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was naturally the incumbent Astros, but a reunion between the sides appears to be off the table at this point as they’ve since signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover the infield corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are seemingly distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reporting last week threw cold water on the possibility of the club landing either Bregman in free agency or Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado via trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane somewhat in recent weeks. One such team could be the Tigers, who were reportedly becoming more serious about their pursuit of Bregman as recently as last week… but signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t outright preclude the Tigers from signing Bregman as well given their wide-open payroll outlook and the club’s relatively unsettled third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Tigers brass might have otherwise felt to add Bregman.

Another potential wild card who may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly has interest in him earlier this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club is likely to be done with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly thereafter by Philadelphia swinging a trade to land left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies would likely need to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.

Still, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clear fits for his services. The Red Sox have been among the teams most frequently discussed in the rumor mill this winter after taking a relative backseat in recent years. While rumored pursuits of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes have not yielded fruit to this point, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority going forward this winter figures to be adding a righty bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while also offering some balance against the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly,  so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been frequently connected to him this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize a reunion with first baseman Pete Alonso over adding Bregman, who would slot in at third base and kick youngster Mark Vientos over to first while likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in the event that they’re unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez to the club’s infield would mean that signing Bregman likely pushes Ernie Clement to the bench (at least barring a trade of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the sort of middle-of-the-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price tag may be giving some teams pause about more aggressively pursuing him. The infielder has seemingly been on the hunt for a $200MM deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction prior to the start of the offseason was that he’d land a seven-year $182MM deal. It’s a price that seemingly made both the Astros and Yankees squeamish in their pursuits of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs are hoping to land Bregman on a deal closer to the six years and $156MM Houston reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with opt-outs similar to the one Carlos Correa signed when he departed Houston a few winters ago, they’ll likely have to wait out his market until closer to the beginning of Spring Training. And the possibility of a “mystery team” swooping in to land Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week) cannot be ruled out, either.

How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he appears to be seeking, or wind up regretting turning down Houston’s reported $156MM offer?

The Opener: Thielbar, DFA Limbo, Spending

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Happy New Year from MLBTR! Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into 2025:

1. Thielbar terms to be publicized:

The Cubs wrapped up 2024 with one last signing: left-hander Caleb Thielbar on a one-year deal. Thielbar, 38 later this month, struggled to a 5.32 ERA in 47 1/3 innings of work with the Twins last year but had pitched much better for Minnesota from 2020 to 2023, when he posted a 3.21 ERA (130 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in 174 innings of work. The southpaw figures to feature in Chicago’s middle relief mix, joining other left-handed options such as Rob Zastryzny and Luke Little. Notably, the terms of Thielbar’s deal with the Cubs have not yet been reported. Even heading into his age-38 season following a down season, it wouldn’t be a shock if Thielbar garnered significantly more than the major league minimum given his past track record of success. It’s likely that more clarity regarding the specifics of Thielbar’s contract will be made available in the coming days.

2. Players in DFA limbo:

The timer for clubs to make decisions regarding players in DFA limbo was paused over the holidays, but figures to restart now that 2025 has begun. A number of players including Phillies left-hander Tyler Gilbert, Astros infielder Grae Kessinger, and Rangers catcher Sam Huff have been facing uncertain futures that will be resolved in the coming days. Within the next week, all players currently in DFA limbo figure to either be placed on waivers or traded. Clubs will have the opportunity to outright any of their players who clear waivers during this time to the minor leagues, but players who have previously been outrighted or have at least three years of MLB service time can reject that assignment in favor of free agency if they so choose.

3. Will these teams spend in 2025?

As 2024 came to a close, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look yesterday at each club’s spending to this point in the offseason. The Mets, naturally, led the way by a significant margin thanks to the $765MM commitment they made to Juan Soto last month, but the other end of the list is far more interesting. Five clubs have yet to spend a dime in free agency, though that number drops to four if you consider right-hander Michael Wacha re-upping with the Royals in the days leading up to free agency to be a fresh signing rather than an extension. Joining the Royals at the bottom of the spending barrel are the Mariners, Twins, Padres, and Cardinals. Each team finished with an above .500 record last year, but at the very least Minnesota, San Diego, and St. Louis all appear to face stiff payroll limitations this winter. Will these clubs become more active in free agency now that we’ve moved into 2025, with just six weeks until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training?

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