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Archives for January 2025

The Opener: Bonus Pool Trades, Infield Market, Rotation Market

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As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Teams weighing trades of bonus pool money?

Yesterday, the Giants made two trades to pick up additional international bonus pool money. In doing so, they shipped out catcher Blake Sabol to the Red Sox and righty Will Kempner to the Marlins. More teams could follow suit in that regard, as both the Dodgers and Padres are in the market to add additional funds to their bonus pools amid their respective pursuits of NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki. Those clubs aren’t likely to be alone in the looking to make deals involving bonus pool space. Sasaki’s presence on the market has caused the Dodgers to allow several committed players to look elsewhere, while the Padres have been holding off on finalizing deals in anticipation of Sasaki’s decision. The Dodgers, Friars and Jays have all held off on finalizing deals with international prospects as of yet, as have several other clubs. Even teams that aren’t finalists for Sasaki might be cagey with finalizing deals, knowing that they could have the ability to trade for some extra bonus space and scoop up a prospect who’d been gearing up to sign with L.A., San Diego or Toronto.

2. Potential movement on the infield market:

There’s been some movement on the infield market since the calendar flipped to January, kicked off by Josh Rojas signing with the White Sox on Jan. 2. Since then, Amed Rosario and Donovan Solano have landed deals in D.C. and Seattle, respectively, while Thairo Estrada finalized his December agreement to sign in Colorado. That movement has left relatively few bench players still available on the infield with Whit Merrifield, Jose Iglesias, and Paul DeJong among the most notable options available. Meanwhile, the infield market’s rumors have primarily been focused at the top of the market where there’s been plenty of buzz about the markets of both first basemen Pete Alonso and third basemen Alex Bregman in recent days. With rumors churning at the top of the market and a number of lower-level signings occurring in recent weeks, could more deals be on the horizon?

3. Will Sasaki spur movement in the rotation market?

Aside from an occasional one-year deal for a veteran arm like Justin Verlander or Charlie Morton, the rotation market has quieted in the aftermath of right-hander Corbin Burnes signing late last month. Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana are among the quality veterans who still remain available in free agency. Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease have seen their names come up in trade rumors, but there’s been seemingly little movement on those markets in the New Year. One potential wrinkle in the market is Sasaki, particularly since the Padres could feel more comfortable dealing from the rotation were he to land in San Diego. Other clubs like the Mariners, Cubs, Yankees and Rangers were at least loosely involved in his market until recently and may have been holding off on significant decisions while waiting on a resolution to his free agency. Those clubs, now informed that they’re out of the running, will have to turn to alternative plans. With a decision looming from Sasaki, could the wider market start to move again in the coming days?

MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Padres, Reds, Cardinals, Stroman, Hoffman

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs' remaining payroll space, how MLBTR's arbitration projections came to be, what the Padres, Reds, and Rangers might do, possible fits for Marcus Stroman, the Jeff Hoffman situation, what the Cardinals could get for Erick Fedde or Ryan Helsley, and much more.

Walter asks:

With roughly $45 million left until the bottom threshold, how do you see Jed Hoyer spending it? Do you think he is being handcuffed because he is in the last year of his contract?

No, I can't see the Ricketts family putting boundaries on Hoyer because of his lame-duck status.  According to RosterResource, the Cubs' CBT payroll sits at $198MM, which indeed puts them $43MM shy of the first threshold.  I'm not convinced Hoyer will spend all of that, but he figures to spend a good portion.

The Cubs waited out Cody Bellinger until late February last year to get the short-term deal they craved.  It's not hard to see the Cubs being opportunistic on Alex Bregman, Jack Flaherty, or Nick Pivetta should they move into short-term deal territory.  The Cubs giving $5MM to Colin Rea probably reduces the odds of pursuing another starting pitcher, however.

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Corbin Burnes Discusses Decision To Join Diamondbacks

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Corbin Burnes’ six-year, $210MM contract with the Diamondbacks stands out as perhaps the most surprising move of the 2024-25 offseason, as Arizona wasn’t viewed as a prime contender to either spend that much money, or even make a move for a frontline pitcher given the depth already present in the Snakes’ rotation.

As revealed today during Burnes’ introductory press conference, the concept of Burnes joining the D’Backs also seemed unlikely to all parties involved at the start of the offseason.  Past reports suggested that it was Burnes and his agent Scott Boras who reached out to the D’Backs to ignite talks in late December and a deal was reached in fairly short order, and this version of events was largely supported in comments to media (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, and MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert) today.

Burnes and his family live in Scottsdale, and there was obvious appeal in playing so close to home, especially after Burnes’ wife Brooke gave birth to twin girls this past June.  While Burnes had interest in playing for the Diamondbacks, there wasn’t much or any contact between the two sides until Boras contacted owner Ken Kendrick in December about the possibility of a signing.  Boras and Kendrick seemingly handled this initial set of negotiations directly, as D’Backs GM Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye were both out of country on family vacations.

The result was the priciest contract in Diamondbacks franchise history, and a payroll that now sits at roughly $193.6MM, as per RosterResource’s estimates.  Kendrick admitted that the D’Backs were “stretching the budget” to make the Burnes deal work, but he pointed to such new revenue streams as a sponsored jersey patch, a ballpark sportsbook, and more concerts at Chase Field, plus the more traditional extra funds generated by increased attendance.

“All of those things drive the train, and then what do we do?  Every dollar that comes in we’re going to reinvest it in ballplayers and not in the ownership, and we will always do that,” Kendrick said.

Burnes wasn’t entirely off the Diamondbacks’ radar at the start of the offseason, as Sawdaye said in an appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast today that the front office had “heard through intermediaries, and other players” that Burnes had interest in playing close to home.  Internally, Sawdaye said “we had some discussion and it seemed financially it wasn’t going to be able to work or make sense.”

However, with Kendrick and CEO Derrick Hall pushing things and Burnes remaining unsigned, Sawdaye said the front office essentially asked ” ’well, what’s the price going to be?’ We’d be doing ourselves a disservice to a player who wants to come here, and obviously we should find out what that’s going to cost.”

As hefty as Burnes’ contract is, Boras said there was “no question” the right-hander turned down larger offers from other teams.  Past reports indicated that the Blue Jays and possibly the Orioles were willing to top Arizona’s offer, though Burnes said today that he’d only received concrete offers from the Jays and Giants, plus “some verbal stuff with Baltimore and Boston, but nothing I had seen in writing.”

Verducci’s piece includes a longer breakdown of how Burnes’ free agent trip developed, with Toronto, Boston, and the Yankees all expressing interest right at the start of free agency.  Various discussions took place with all parties over the next several weeks, with Corbin and Brooke Burnes prioritizing how signing with each prospective suitor would impact their young family’s day-to-day routine.  The Yankees and Red Sox seemed to fall back in the chase after the teams had respectively landed Max Fried and Garrett Crochet to address their pitching needs, which helped clear the way for the D’Backs to emerge with a late bid.

Dodgers, Padres Looking Into Trading For International Bonus Pool Funds

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10:10PM: The Padres are also looking to trade for more int’l signing pool space, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes (multiple links).  More teams than just the Sasaki suitors are also exploring such trades, as an executive tells Feinsand that “other teams are recognizing opportunities” to be aggressive in the international market.

9:07PM: The 23-year-old Roki Sasaki is considered an international free agent due to his age, as league rules dictate, and thus his impending arrival to the big leagues has brought extra attention to the int’l free agent acquisition process, which officially began today with the opening of the signing window.  The race to sign Sasaki isn’t technically a bidding war since the money on offer is limited by the bonus pool structure, and Sasaki’s willingness to make the jump to the majors so early in his career indicates that salary isn’t his chief priority.

Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean the three teams reportedly remaining in the hunt for Sasaki won’t try to add a few extra dollars to their offers.  Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers have engaged multiple teams in “exploratory” discussions about trading for extra money from their bonus pools, though there doesn’t appear to be any indication that any deals are close.

Clubs are permitted to trade from their bonus pools in increments of $250K, and teams are allowed to add to their pre-existing pools by as much as 60 percent of their original number.  The Dodgers’ 2025 pool was reduced by $1MM due to their signing of Shohei Ohtani last winter, as Ohtani rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer and the Dodgers were a luxury-tax paying team in 2023, which left Los Angeles with $5,146,200 to work with for this year’s international class.

This amount is tied with the Giants for the lowest pool of any team.  The Blue Jays and Padres (the other Sasaki finalists) have a pool size of $6,261,600, giving them a bit extra to work with in terms of paying Sasaki, or spending on other int’l talents should Sasaki sign elsewhere.  Should all three teams trade for the maximum amount of extra pool space, the Dodgers would have approximately $8,223,920 to offer Sasaki, while Toronto and San Diego could offer him $10,018,560.

As noted earlier, Sasaki likely isn’t going to base his decision on what will ultimately end up being pretty similar offers from his three suitors.  This could be why the Dodgers are apparently not yet pushing too hard to add to their pool space, as Sasaki might end up signing elsewhere anyway.  Harris also notes that for the Dodgers (and presumably the Padres and Blue Jays), there’s a lack of leverage in such trade talks, as rival teams know full well that int’l bonus money is of particular importance as the clock ticks down towards January 23 and the close of Sasaki’s posting window.

International pool space is usually not considered a hugely valuable trade asset in general, though naturally teams trying to amass extra money to complete a signing may think otherwise.  Earlier today, we saw the Giants acquire extra pool money in a pair of trades, as Blake Sabol was sent to the Red Sox and Will Kempner was dealt to the Marlins.  These additional funds helped San Francisco boost its $5,146,200 figure, and probably helped the team land its top signing — highly-touted Dominican shortstop prospect Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez, who got a bonus of $2,997,500.

The other wrinkle on the trade front is that teams with bonus space to spare might want to keep that money themselves for more signings, rather than deal it away.  The team that lands Sasaki will have to walk away from its pre-existing handshake agreements with most or all members of its 2025 international signing class, so several other interesting prospects could soon be entering the market.  Even the possibility that these unofficial agreements might not be honored has cost the Dodgers at least three prospects already, so the two teams who don’t sign Sasaki might both miss out on the pitcher and have to deal with a reduced group of int’l prospects if some of the players leave in advance.

Tommy Brown Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Tommy Brown passed away today at age 97, according to The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh.  “Buckshot” Brown played in 494 games with the Dodgers, Phillies, and Cubs from 1944-53, and he holds distinctions as the youngest player to ever hit a home run in a Major League game, and the youngest non-pitcher to ever appear in a Major League game.

Brown broke into the majors in August 1944 when he was just 16 years old.  With several players serving in the military during World War II, big league teams were forced to fill out rosters with several players that wouldn’t have normally made the Show, opening the door to several young players like Brown.  He played in 46 games for his hometown Brooklyn Dodgers in 1944, and then made 57 more appearances in 1945.  It was on August 20, 1945 that Brown hit his first career homer and entered the record books at 17 years and 257 days old.

By 1946, Brown was old enough to enlist for military duty himself, and he missed the 1946 season while serving in the U.S. Army.  He returned to baseball in 1947, and played in 169 more games for Brooklyn over parts of the next five seasons.  Playing primarily as a shortstop, Brown also saw a lot of time at the other three infield positions and in left field over the course of his career.  Dodgers manager Leo Durocher gave Brown his nickname of “Buckshot,” as Brown had a strong but erratic throwing arm that led to more than a few wayward throws in his early days.

While Brown didn’t see much action as a part-time player with Brooklyn, it was admittedly hard to crack the lineup of a star-studded Dodgers team.  As Lindbergh noted, when Brown returned from the war to participate in the Dodgers’ Spring Training camp, he lost the competition for the first base job to none other than Jackie Robinson.  Brown still played a valuable role as a utilityman during this memorable Dodgers era, and he had two pinch-hit at-bats during Brooklyn’s five-game loss to the Yankees in the 1949 World Series.

The Dodgers traded Brown to the Phillies in June 1951, and he played in 96 more games for Philadelphia over the next two seasons before landing with the Cubs for the final 126 games of his MLB career.  Brown finished with a .241/.292/.355 slash line and 31 homers over 1387 career plate appearances, with his best numbers coming in bench duty with the Dodgers in 1950, and amidst a surge in playing time in 1952 after he went to Chicago.

Brown played in six more minor league seasons before retiring at age 31.  This included a stint with Nashville’s minor league team from 1955-58 that ended up changing the course of Brown’s life, as he met his future wife in Nashville and spent 35 years working at the city’s Ford Glass plant after his baseball career was over.

We at MLB Trade Rumors send our condolences to Brown’s family and friends.

Mets Interested In Tim Hill

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The Mets have “been interested lately” in left-hander Tim Hill, Newsday’s Tim Healey reports.  Hill has now drawn some looks from two different New York boroughs, as the Yankees were also linked to Hill’s market last month.

Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, Phil Maton, Drew Smith, Brooks Raley, and Ryne Stanek are all free agents, and the Mets have largely looked to replace this relief depth with an influx of minor league signings and waiver claims.  Griffin Canning was signed to a big league deal and looks to be part of the bullpen mix, as well.  Amidst all of these moves, however, Danny Young is the only southpaw bullpen option on the 40-man roster, so the Mets certainly have a need for more left-handed pitching help.

Signing Tanner Scott would certainly address the bullpen balance in a major fashion, yet regardless of whether or not the Mets’ pursuit of Scott pans out, a veteran arm like Hill would also help.  Hill got a taste of the New York spotlight last season, when he posted an outstanding 2.05 ERA over 44 regular-season innings with the Yankees and then a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 playoffs innings.

A .238 BABIP certainly contributed to that success in the pinstripes, and for an extreme groundball pitcher like Hill, batted-ball luck has largely contributed to his ebbs and flows over his seven MLB seasons.  Hill has a 3.99 ERA across 322 1/3 career innings with the Royals, Padres, White Sox, and Yankees, with an excellent 61.8% grounder rate.  He was an average strikeout pitcher at best in the early part of his career, but Hill’s strikeout rate has dropped to just 11.8% over the last three seasons.  The decrease in strikeouts has also generally coincided with a dropoff in home runs, as keeping the ball in the park was also an issue for Hill earlier in his career.

Hill turns 35 in February, and given how two rough months with the White Sox preceded his strong showing in the Bronx, the left-hander will surely land just a one-year contract in free agency.  That might fit well with David Stearns’ usual approach to investing in relief pitching, as the Mets president of baseball operations has rarely spent much on bullpen arms, instead preferring to develop relievers from within or to find hidden gems on minor league deals.

Latest On Mets, Pete Alonso

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7:28PM: Alonso and the Mets “are said to be making progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that’s expected to be for three years and include at least one opt out,” according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman.  “While the sides appear amenable to that short-term structure,” Sherman and Heyman write, there’s still “a gap between offer and counteroffer,” with specific figures not mentioned.

5:15PM: The Mets and Pete Alonso have seemingly been in a staredown for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reporting from last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had pitched a short-term deal with opt-outs to the Mets but Alonso remains unsigned. Reports from both Andy Martino of SNY and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggest a pivot point is coming where the Mets may move on to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a place on the 2025 team.

It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency could go this way. Last winter, the “Boras Four” lingered in free agency well into the new year and eventually settled for contracts below expectations. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that only were guaranteed for two or three years, though with each player having the chance to opt-out after each season. There were reasons to expect Alonso might follow them down this road.

Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer of seven years and $158MM back in the summer of 2023. He still had one arbitration season to go at that point, ultimately making $20.5MM in 2024, so he effectively turned down $137.5MM for six free agent years. There had been reports that Alonso was looking at the contracts of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson at targets. Freeman signed for $162MM over six years, though with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension when he was still two years away from free agency.

But Alonso isn’t as well-rounded of a player as those two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both below Freeman and Olson. He’s also coming off a couple of relative down years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two most recent campaigns. That’s still strong production but it will naturally concern a club thinking about making a long-term investment.

Alonso is still unsigned with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than a month. There is apparent willingness to pivot to a short-term deal but a deal still hasn’t come together. There is still more time, as Bellinger’s agreement came together in late February last year, Chapman’s in early March. However, today’s reports both point to the Mets starting to consider other options.

The Mets have had a front office shakeup since offering that extension to Alonso. Billy Eppler was the general manager at that time but David Stearns is now running the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really dedicated a lot of resources to first base, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. A three-year, $16MM deal for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the position for the Brewers. Milwaukee non-tendered Chris Carter after he hit 41 home runs in 2016, rather than pay him a projected $8.1MM salary.

Stearns is working with more resources now that he’s with the Mets but has continued to be measured in how he uses those resources, apart from the Juan Soto deal. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he has taken bounceback fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. He also signed Clay Holmes, hoping to get starting pitcher value for reliever prices.

The Mets do have some internal options for corner infield work. Mark Vientos had a great season in 2024, mostly playing third base, but his defense didn’t receive strong grades. It’s been suggested that he could be moved over to first base, with the hot corner then being open for a competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. There’s some uncertainty in going down that road and there would be some sense in adding Alonso back into the mix, but it seems the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.

Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal as it lowers the chances of them being saddled with a player’s decline years, but the player usually looks to get a higher average annual value as a compromise. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80MM but in frontloaded fashion, allowing him to opt out after one year with $30MM in his pocket or after two years with $60MM in the bank. Alonso is perhaps looking for something similar, which the Mets may not be keen on.

The Mets are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number at $276MM next year. Signing Alonso to something in the range of $25-30MM annually would push that close to the fourth and final tier of the tax, which is $301MM this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax for spending over the top line. As such, even employing Alonso for one year and then having him opt out would cost them something like $60MM. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt out, as happened with Bellinger, they would be stuck with the deal for another year or two.

The Mets also stand to receive draft pick compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a tax payor, their bonus pick wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. That’s not massively important in baseball terms but it’s not nothing and it would go away if they re-sign Alonso.

It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it seems they are willing to play hard ball and move on to other options soon. Martino does mention that the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also downplays the talks significantly, characterizing the fit as “fantasy baseball.” That aligns with public comments from Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.

Martino mentions a reunion with Jesse Winker or signing Anthony Santander as other possible pivots, though he adds that the latter is less likely to come to fruition. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to go back to Queens, he will have to do his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers some of the options.

Nationals Sign Franchy Cordero To Minor League Contract

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The Nationals signed outfielder/first baseman Franchy Cordero to a minor league contract, according to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media.  There are conflicting reports over whether or not the deal includes an invitation to the Nats’ big league spring camp, as Leighton writes that Cordero got an invite while the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden writes otherwise.

Cordero returns to North American baseball after a year spent with the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball.  More specifically, most of Cordero’s time was spent with the Lions’ top minor league affiliate, as he played only 23 games with the Lions and struggled to a .129/.151/.200 over 73 NPB plate appearances.

It was hardly the performance Cordero was hoping for in his trip to Japan, which could be why (as per Golden’s report) Washington only issued him an invite to its minor league Spring Training site.  Regardless of the exact nature of Cordero’s contract, the minor league deal is a no-risk move for the Nationals to look at Cordero first-hand and see what he can still bring to the table as he enters his age-30 season.

Cordero hit .217/.283/.395 with 27 home runs over 797 PA and 251 games with the Padres, Royals, Red Sox, and Yankees from 2017-23.  Despite the lack of production, it was easy to see why so multiple teams kept taking chances on Cordero, as his power potential, exit velocity numbers, and plus speed gave the impression that a breakout was just around the corner. However, Cordero’s 34.9% career strikeout rate minimized his impact, as pitchers were often able to turn Cordero’s aggressive approach at the plate into a minus rather than a plus.

Defensively, Cordero has experience at first base and at all three outfield positions, though he isn’t considered to be much of a fielder.  Washington’s minor league depth chart doesn’t have many players with MLB experience at first base or in the outfield, so the Nationals could be viewing Cordero solely as a Triple-A backup plan.

Yankees Acquire Michael Arias

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The Yankees announced that they have acquired right-hander Michael Arias from the Cubs in exchange for cash considerations. The latter club had designated Arias for assignment earlier this week. The Yankees have multiple 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

Arias, 23, was originally an international signing of the Blue Jays. Signed as a shortstop, he was released and then signed by the Cubs, who moved him to the mound. Arias has shown some potential as a pitcher but lack of control has been the biggest drawback, which isn’t especially surprising for a guy who has only been in this role for a few years.

Overall, Arias has thrown 182 innings across multiple levels over the past four years, allowing 4.25 earned runs per nine. His 27.7% strikeout rate in that time is a solid number, but his 16.5% walk rate is quite high.

Despite the issues, the Cubs added him to their 40-man roster in November of 2023 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. His control didn’t improve in 2024, as he tossed 60 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.77 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate. When the Cubs signed Colin Rea, they bumped Arias off the roster.

For the Yankees, they have a few roster spots open, so there’s little harm in taking a flier. Arias still has a couple of options and can be kept in the minors as they try to help him harness his stuff better. Per Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice of FanGraphs, his arsenal includes “a mid-90s sinker, a potentially plus-plus changeup, and a righty-dowsing slider.”

Free Agent Faceoff: Jose Quintana vs Andrew Heaney

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The starting pitching options available in free agency have begun to dwindle with the start of Spring Training less than a month away, but a few interesting options still remain available. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta are the top names still available in free agency at this point, though they figure to come with a high annual salary in the case of Flaherty and cost their new club draft capital as a qualified free agent in the case of Pivetta. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer stands alone at the top of the market for veterans likely to accept one year deals after Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander all found homes earlier this winter.

Overlooked in this free agent class, however, is a pair of solid mid-rotation lefties. Veterans Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have garnered little if any buzz in the rumor mill to this point, but at this late stage in the offseason they stand out among the remaining crop of starters as some of the more reliable options still available. Ranked #25 and #31 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, Heaney and Quintana figure to be among the best arms available for clubs looking to bolster their rotation that don’t have room in the budget for a player like Flaherty or Pivetta. Even Scherzer could land a higher annual salary.

Quintana and Heaney have a number of striking similarities. From 2019 to 2021, both players posted an ERA north of 5.00 in less than 300 innings of work as they struggled to stay healthy and effective. Both players then appeared to take a major step forward in 2022, however, and since then have proven to be a reliable mid-rotation option despite occasional injury issues persisting. In Heaney’s case, his 2021 breakout came as a member of the Dodgers. While he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings of work due to injuries that year, he was dominant when healthy enough to pitch with a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate.

That breakout led Heaney to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers in free agency and, though he hasn’t quite reached that level of elite production since then, he’s managed to stay healthy and provide solid results to Texas. In 307 1/3 innings for the Rangers over the past two years, the lefty has pitched to a roughly league average 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 23.2% during his time in Dallas, but even in spite of that, he’s shown positive signs for the future. That’s particularly true of the 2024 season, when he cut his walk rate from 9.4% to a career-best 5.9% while his barrel rate dipped from 10.2% down to just 8.3%. Those improvements in batted ball results and walk rate allowed Heaney to post a 3.95 SIERA last year, good for 32nd among starters with 160 innings of work last year and sandwiched between Seth Lugo and Sean Manaea on the leaderboard.

By contrast, Quintana continued to get above average results this year with a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) in 31 starts for the Mets but started to show troubling signs in terms of peripherals. Quintana struck out just 18.8% of opponents for the second year in a row in 2024, but saw his walk rate climb to 8.8% while his barrel rate crept up to 6.7%. All that left Quintana with a 4.57 SIERA that ranks just 53rd among qualified starters. Father Time is also on Heaney’s side, as he’s roughly two-and-a-half years younger than Quintana, who will celebrate his 36th birthday later this month. Of course, that aforementioned barrel rate is still better than Heaney’s figure from 2024 and his career-best 47.4% groundball rate suggests he may be able to continue limiting damage and outperforming his peripherals going forward.

It’s also worth noting that Quintana has the stronger overall track record than Heaney. Although he experienced a blip in productiveness from 2019 to 2021, he had seven above-average seasons under his belt prior to that and since then has posted an excellent 3.39 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP in 411 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s struck out just 19.4% of opponents in that time, that ERA is tied for 22nd among qualified starters since the start of the 2022 campaign, on par with the likes of Dylan Cease and George Kirby. While it seems unlikely that Quintana would be able to replicate that elite production going forward without improving on his strikeout and walk numbers, it’s possible his grounder-heavy profile could work quite well in front of a strong defense.

If your club was looking to add a veteran southpaw to its rotation, which would you prefer? Would you value Heaney’s relative youth and stronger peripherals in his platform campaign? Or would you overlook Quintana’s age and concerning peripherals in favor of his more consistent track record and knack for keeping the ball on the ground? Have your say in the poll below:

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