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Phillies, Nick Vespi Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent left-hander Nick Vespi, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The Ballengee Group client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Vespi, 29, has seen big league time with the Orioles in each of the past three seasons. He’s tallied 53 1/3 innings along the way, pitching to a solid 3.88 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.9% walk rate. Vespi embodies the “finesse lefty” archetype, sitting 89 mph on his cutter, but he’s missed bats (12.9% swinging-strike rate) and kept the ball on the ground (44.7%) at clips that are slightly better than league average.

Despite the solid work in the majors, Vespi was designated for assignment in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed. A disastrous showing in Triple-A this year surely contributed to that outcome. Vespi pitched 42 1/3 innings down in Norfolk but was rocked for a 7.23 ERA. A sky-high .424 average on balls in play played a role in inflating his earned run average, but Vespi also walked a very uncharacteristic 14.6% of his opponents and plunked three more. A whopping 16% of his opponents in Triple-A reached via base-on-balls or hit-by-pitch.

If Vespi can get back to the solid command he showed both in Triple-A and in the majors, he’ll have a good chance of pitching his way into the Phillies’ plans. He may not throw hard, but he’s been good in three Triple-A seasons prior to 2024 and has had some solid big league results in Baltimore. Vespi generally limits hard contact well — career 87.9 mph average exit velocity and 37.7% hard-hit rate — and did so quite well in Norfolk this year even while struggling with his bottom-line results (85.7 mph average exit velocity, 27.6% hard-hit rate).

He’ll need to earn the opportunity with a strong spring or impressive early work in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but if Vespi does land on the big league roster, he can be controlled not only for the 2025 season but an additional five years beyond that point.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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The potential for a Nolan Arenado trade has been one of the most persistent storylines of the 2024-25 offseason, and Arenado surged into the spotlight yesterday when it was reported that he invoked his no-trade clause to quash a deal that would’ve sent him to the Astros.

Further details on the matter, unsurprisingly, have continued to leak out today and presumably will in the days and weeks ahead. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that while Arenado vetoed the potential deal to Houston, the Cardinals and Astros will continue to negotiate and an eventual deal remains possible. Of further note, while there’s been plenty of talk regarding the number of teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, Goold suggests that the third baseman has not at any point submitted a formal list of such teams to the Cardinals. Around five teams have spoken with the Cardinals about a trade, per the report.

The lack of a firm list could potentially be due to the fact that Arenado’s willingness to approve a trade to another club is context-dependent. Agent Joel Wolfe made clear at last week’s Winter Meetings that Arenado’s goal is to land with a clear win-now team that will continue to pursue a World Series title for the balance of the three years remaining on his contract. A team’s offseason dealings can impact the perception of whether they’re a true long-term contender.

Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic report that, somewhat ironically, the very same move that in some regards paved the way for Houston’s pursuit of Arenado might’ve reduced his willingness to go there: the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. For a player seeking a perennial win-now atmosphere, a team simultaneously trading its best player and balking at re-signing a franchise cornerstone (Alex Bregman) logically raises some red flags. Woo and Rome write that Arenado wants to further see how the third-base market plays out before making any kind of decision, with Bregman’s eventual landing spot being one potential factor.

If that sounds counterintuitive, consider that Arenado could be viewed as something of a “Plan B” for teams with interest in Bregman. Bregman has been linked to both the Yankees and Red Sox, for instance. Either could hold appeal to Arenado, speculatively speaking, but they may choose not to ramp up their pursuit until Bregman is off the table. Revisiting the talks with Houston could also occur if Bregman signs elsewhere.

MLB.com’s John Denton appeared on 101 ESPN’s BK and Ferrario Show in St. Louis this morning and touched on the Arenado saga as well. He echoed many of the same points made in those reports and in his own reporting in helping break the no-trade development yesterday, but he added the wrinkle that Arenado is still holding out hope for a potential match with the Dodgers.

While Dodgers brass has publicly indicated that Max Muncy will be the team’s third baseman next season, Denton suggested some gamesmanship in those comments and reports that the Dodgers still have some interest in Arenado. It’s hard to see how that’d work with Muncy in the fold, Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani locked in at designated hitter.

Muncy would make a pricey and overqualified bench player. He’s a highly affordable starter at third, owed $12MM this year with a $10MM club option for 2026. Muncy doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but the 2023-24 version of Arenado isn’t a clear upgrade overall — certainly not when Muncy has been the superior hitter. Muncy’s .232/.358/.494 slash in 2024 (135 wRC+) outpaces Arenado’s .272/.325/.394 output (102 wRC+) — higher batting average for Arenado notwithstanding. Those roadblocks aside, Denton feels the Dodgers aren’t entirely out of the question and that Arenado isn’t likely to approve a deal anywhere “until the Dodgers tell him no to his face.”

There were clearly many factors that went into Arenado’s decision to utilize his no-trade provision, but regardless of the specifics, the scratched Houston deal leaves the Cards in limbo. They’d like to open third base playing time for younger players (e.g. Nolan Gorman, perhaps Jordan Walker) and are simultaneously hopeful of scaling back payroll ahead of next year’s player development-focused “reset” year.

Trading Arenado would’ve done just that, particularly with the Astros apparently willing to foot the majority of the bill. Woo and Rome indicate that Houston was willing to cover around $45MM of Arenado’s deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears differently, reporting that the Astros were willing to cover a heftier $59MM of the $74MM remaining on the contract. That’s on top of the $10MM the Rockies are covering under the terms of their prior deal. In essence, it seems the Cardinals would’ve only been on the hook for anywhere from $5-19MM in total — as compared to the $64MM they currently owe Arenado ($12MM of which is deferred). Woo and Rome write that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is “facing pressure from ownership” to further reduce payroll.

Taking a step further back, Arenado’s various reported reasons for saying no to the Astros — at least for the time being — suggest we may not get resolution on his trade candidacy anytime soon. If Arenado is waiting to see both whether the Dodgers make a serious push and to see where Bregman lands (perhaps opening the door for a match with an AL East contender), then the Cardinals’ hands are tied to an extent. Passan writes that the Houston veto could push the Cards to show willingness to eat more of the contract, thus bringing in additional suitors. Even in that scenario, the ball would be squarely in Arenado’s court, and if he’s willing to wait out several related market factors, this saga could drag on for some time.

In that scenario, the Cardinals might well be forced to look into other ways they could shed some payroll. Steven Matz ($12MM), Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) and Ryan Helsley (projected $6.9MM) are among the other short-term veterans on the roster who don’t hold the same no-trade provisions that Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Miles Mikolas hold. Both Contreras and Gray have reportedly told the Cardinals that they prefer to stay in St. Louis and do not plan to waive their no-trade rights.

Mariners To Re-Sign Josh Fleming To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners are going to sign left-hander Josh Fleming to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Republik Sports client also receives an invite to major league spring training.

Fleming, 29 in May, just signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in August. He made 19 appearances for their Triple-A club down the stretch, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine innings. He didn’t get added to the roster and became a free agent at season’s end, though has now circled back the M’s on a fresh deal.

The southpaw has appeared as a swingman in each of the past five major league seasons, mostly with the Rays but also with the Pirates. He has appeared in 80 major league games, including 25 starts, tossing 254 2/3 innings with a 4.77 ERA. His 14.6% strikeout rate is well below par but his 7.5% walk rate is good and his 58.4% ground ball rate quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched from 2020 to the present, only five of them have a better grounder rate than Fleming: Clay Holmes, Andre Pallante, Framber Valdez, Emmanuel Clase and Logan Webb.

Fleming’s strikeout rate is far lower than everyone in that group, which has prevented him from posting especially strong results, but he’s been serviceable enough to serve as a solid depth piece. On a minor league deal, there’s no risk for the M’s.

Seattle has a very strong rotation but the depth is a little concerning. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are an excellent front five but things get flimsy beyond that. There have been some trade rumors surrounding Castillo this winter, which could lead to Emerson Hancock or Jhonathan Díaz moving up to the number five spot. In the bullpen, guys like Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar are working back from Tommy John surgeries, while Gregory Santos spent most of 2024 on the injured list due to arm issues.

Fleming gives the club a bit of depth for both areas without taking up a roster spot. If he gets added at any point, he is out of options but has less than four years of service time, meaning he could be retained into future seasons via arbitration.

Luzardo Talks Between Cubs, Marlins Have Reportedly Cooled

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The Cubs have been extremely active on the trade market over the past week, but it seems their latest deal may have hit a snag. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score said on air this morning that Chicago’s talks for Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo “appear to be dead” after having some serious momentum earlier in the week (audio link, Luzardo talk around the 2:13:45 mark). It’s not entirely clear whether the parties will seek to rekindle negotiations, but Levine suggests that medical reviews on one side or the other could have thrown a wrench into talks.

The natural inclination for many will be to presume that Luzardo’s medical records proved to be the hitch, but there’s no firm indication that’s the case. It’s every bit as possible that the Marlins took a look at medical records on one of the prospects who was a focal point in the proposed return and balked at what they saw.

Luzardo, 27, has repeatedly demonstrated front-of-the-rotation potential but hasn’t been able to consistently deliver results at that level — often due to injuries. He posted a 3.48 ERA with an excellent 28.7% strikeout rate against a sharp 7.9% walk rate in 279 innings from 2022-23 but missed time along the way due to a forearm strain. Luzardo, who had Tommy John surgery as a prospect, also spent time on the injured list early in 2024 due to elbow tightness. He returned and pitched well — 3.98 ERA over his next seven starts — only to land back on the injured list in mid-June with a lumbar stress reaction that wound up ending his season.

Luzardo has only reached 100 big league innings twice in his career and has only started more than 18 games in the majors once. Including minor league work, he topped 100 innings each year from 2021-23, but those are his only professional seasons doing so. His 178 2/3 innings from 2023 are far and away a career-high mark.

Durability concerns notwithstanding, prime-aged lefties who average around 96 mph on their heater while boasting plus swinging-strike and strikeout rates alike are rare. Add Luzardo’s at least average command into the mix, and the potential for him to emerge as a bona fide star is clear. He was a top-100 draft pick and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball prior to his debut, after all. However, keeping him healthy has been a difficult task for the A’s and Marlins alike.

Even if it was Luzardo’s medicals that held up a potential deal — and again, we decidedly do not know that to be the case — that doesn’t eliminate the possibility of a trade sending him elsewhere. We’ve seen plenty of past instances where one team backs out of a deal based on a player’s medicals while another club finds them acceptable. For instance, the Yankees reportedly nixed a trade for Jack Flaherty over the summer due to medical concerns. The Dodgers were comfortable enough making a deal and got 10 regular season starts out of Flaherty, plus another five in the postseason. Different teams have different thresholds, and everything that’s taken into consideration is done so relative to the valuation of the players going the other direction in the deal.

As for the Cubs and what might be next if the Luzardo talks can’t be revived — that’s an open question. The trade of Cody Bellinger trimmed $25MM of his $27.5MM salary from the books, giving Chicago plenty of flexibility. RosterResource estimates their current payroll to be around $174MM, with just over $191MM of luxury obligations. That puts the Cubs roughly $50MM shy of the first luxury threshold. At least on paper, that leaves room to add virtually any free agent without needing to worry about the luxury tax, though Levine pushes back strongly on the idea of Chicago making a run at Corbin Burnes.

There’s a clear need for bullpen help and a strong likelihood that the Cubs will jump into the market for some notable late-inning options. History suggests that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer will prefer to keep any free agent commitments there to the short-term variety. Hoyer has not given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since taking over baseball operations in Chicago. Kirby Yates, old friend David Robertson and Kenley Jansen are among the older but still-effective closing options who could be had on short-term deals. If the Cubs are willing to break from their past behavior on the relief market and pursue larger-scale targets, then names like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez currently top the market.

The Opener: Astros, Sasaki, Contreras

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As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. What’s next for the Astros?

The Astros are one week removed from a franchise-altering trade that shipped star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in exchange for a package of three players, including All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes. Even with Paredes in the fold, Houston not only remains in the market for Alex Bregman — they also reportedly made a push to acquire Nolan Arenado from the Cardinals only for Arenado to block the deal with his no-trade clause.

Had Houston successfully brought in Arenado, it seems likely they would’ve moved Paredes over to first base. That remains a possibility for the club if they re-sign Bregman or Arenado can be convinced to waive his no-trade clause at some point down the line, but it also seems possible that the club could turn to Paredes at third and target first base help such as longtime Diamondbacks slugger Christian Walker, to whom they’ve been connected in free agency and in the lead-up to the 2024 trade deadline.

2. Sasaki scheduling meetings with teams?

Yankees GM Brian Cashman revealed to reporters (including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic) yesterday that his club has been granted an in-person meeting with star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki, who was posted for MLB clubs during the Winter Meetings and figures to sign with a team as an international amateur next month. Until Sasaki makes his decision sometime after the international amateur free agency window for 2025 opens on January 15, he’ll be heavily courted by the majority of the league, given the unique circumstances of his free agency.

3. Contreras resolution imminent:

When the Rangers landed right-handers Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Webb in free agency last week, that left the club in need of a 40-man roster spot. They chose to designate right-hander Roansy Contreras for assignment, which gave them a seven-day window in which they could either work out a trade involving Contreras or attempt to pass him through waivers. That window is set to expire today, meaning an announcement regarding Contreras’s future should be imminent. (Since waivers take 48 hours, which are included in that weeklong window, it seems Contreras is already on waivers.)

The 25-year-old hurler was once a consensus top-100 prospect with the Pirates and looked like at least a solid back-of-the-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he posted a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings. A disastrous 2023 season caused him to move to the bullpen, however, and since then he’s profiled more as a middle reliever as he’s moved from Pittsburgh to Anaheim to Arlington. Now, Contreras may find himself on the move again if he’s claimed off waivers by another club. Should he clear waivers, the Rangers would have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues as non-roster depth for the 2025 season.

Nolan Arenado Uses No-Trade Clause To Block Trade To Astros

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The Cardinals are known to be looking to trade Nolan Arenado this offseason, but the talks are complicated by the fact that he has a full no-trade clause in his contract. Per a report today from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Cards and Astros were in discussion on a trade to send him to Houston before Arenado informed St. Louis that he would not be waiving his no-trade clause to join the Astros. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic provided some additional details.

The Cardinals are planning for 2025 to be sort of a reset year, which has put Arenado’s name into trade rumors for the past few months. At the winter meetings last week, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said that he intended to try to line up a deal. The idea would seem to be mutually beneficial. Arenado turns 34 in March and could get a chance to go to a club with more immediate aims of playing competitive baseball. The Cards would save some money and open up playing time to get looks at less established players like Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker.

But as mentioned, Arenado gets a say in the matter via that no-trade clause. It was reported last week that he would approve a trade to six teams: the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox. It wasn’t clear if that was an exhaustive list but the Astros weren’t on it. Per today’s report from Woo and Rome, that list originally included the Astros but they were removed, perhaps due to the recent Kyle Tucker trade and uncertainty around the Alex Bregman situation.

Speaking of Bregman, he has long been the third baseman in Houston, though there are some signs they are planning on moving on. In the years leading up to his free agency, they repeatedly said that they wanted to re-sign him but no deal ever came together. He is still unsigned but there was reportedly a gap in the negotiations, with the club offering him $156MM over six years while he was looking for something more in the $200MM range.

On top of that, the Astros made a big trade last week which arguably got them a Bregman replacement for the hot corner. In sending Tucker to the Cubs, the Astros got three players back, one of whom was Isaac Paredes. While Paredes has played all four infield positions, he’s played third base far more than the other three spots combined.

But in the aftermath of that trade, it was reported that the Astros were emerging as “a serious suitor” for Arenado. Since Arenado is renowned for his third base defense, the plan would presumably be to move Paredes over to first base, since that’s also a target area for Houston. Though it appears Arenado isn’t on board, which puts that whole plan on ice for now.

It’s not clear what the full deal was or why Arenado decided to put the kibosh on it. All reporting has suggested that winning is Arenado’s primary motivation with his theoretical next team and the Astros would seemingly fit the bill. Despite just trading Tucker, they are still planning to compete again in 2025 and have been one of the winningest clubs of the past decade. Perhaps his decision has something to do with geography, the Astros sign-stealing scandal or the Astros-Cardinals data breach scandal, though those would be just guesses. Woo and Rome’s report suggests that he wants more time to make his decision and this isn’t final.

Aside from Arenado blocking the deal, the most notable item in today’s reporting is that the Cardinals were apparently willing to eat money. Arenado is going to make $74MM over the next three years but $10MM is covered by the Rockies as part of the trade that sent him from Colorado to St. Louis. There are also some deferrals, which apparently drop the present day value of what’s owed from $64MM to about $60MM, per the MLB.com column. But the Cards were willing to include $15-20MM so that the Astros would only be on the hook for $40-45MM of that. The Athletic says the Cards were willing to eat $5MM per season for the rest of the deal, or exactly $15MM.

That’s a sensible position for the Cards to take. While lowering the payroll is a goal for their planned reset year, it’s already projected to be well below their recent spending levels. RosterResource projects the 2025 payroll to be almost $40MM below 2024 levels. Trading Arenado, even if they eat some of the money, would only widen that gap while allowing the club to get a more notable return in terms of young talent.

It also may have helped the Astros stay under the competitive balance tax, with RosterResource currently putting their number at $225MM. If they were to take on roughly three years and $45MM of Arenado’s deal, that would add $15MM to their number and put them right around the $241MM base threshold.

Now the major questions will be about what comes next for each club. Both reports suggest that the Astros and Cardinals will continue having discussions, but it’s possible that they may have to pivot to other options while they are still available, depending on how much time Arenado wants to make up his mind about Houston. The Astros could look to restart negotiations with Bregman or pivot to a first baseman like Christian Walker. The Cardinals could try to negotiate a new deal with one of the other clubs that Arenado is perhaps less hesitant about joining.

Arenado was an MVP finalist as recently as a couple of years ago but his offense has dipped in recent years. In 2022, he hit 30 home runs and slashed .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+. When combined with his excellent glovework, FanGraphs credited him with 7.2 wins above replacement that year. But over the past two years, he has hit .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+, barely above league average. He’s still been worth close to 3 fWAR annually in that time thanks to the defense, but it’s obviously a concerning drop. Most of his home runs come to the pull side, so playing in front of Houston’s Crawford Boxes could be a good fit for him, but he would have to want that.

Blue Jays Had Shown Interest In Cody Bellinger

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After weeks of discussion between the Cubs and Yankees, Cody Bellinger landed in the Bronx. Before that was finalized, the Mariners and Astros were among the teams that had been loosely tied to the former MVP in trade rumors.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported just after the Bellinger trade that the Blue Jays had also been involved in talks with Chicago. It looks as if Toronto ended as the runner-up. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters this afternoon that the Cubs had narrowed it down to two teams and decided they would pull the trigger on an offer by Tuesday (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “If we didn’t pull him down, he would’ve been off the board,” Cashman added. While the GM declined to identify the other team, reading between the lines makes it seem that the Jays finished in second.

Toronto has had longstanding interest in Bellinger. They were involved in his free agent bidding in each of the last two winters. In both cases, they watched him sign with Chicago instead. This time around, he’s headed to a divisional competitor. The Yankees sent depth starter Cody Poteet to the Cubs in a one-for-one swap. Toronto could certainly have made a more compelling offer in terms of prospect talent, but it seems they didn’t want to match the Yankees financially.

New York agreed to assume $47.5MM of the $52.5MM remaining on Bellinger’s contract. There haven’t been any details about how much Toronto would’ve been willing to commit. The Cubs’ biggest goal was shedding as much of the deal as possible. Bellinger looked like the odd man out in Chicago even before they acquired Kyle Tucker. That blockbuster trade made a Bellinger move inevitable.

The Jays have taken on big money in one trade this offseason. They absorbed the remaining five years and $96.5MM on the Andrés Giménez contract in their Winter Meetings deal with the Guardians. While Toronto has been tied to almost every free agent of note, their only MLB signing thus far is a two-year deal to reunite with middle reliever Yimi García.

Outfield remains a clear weakness. George Springer is coming off a .220/.303/.371 showing in his age-34 season. Daulton Varsho is expected to begin the season on the injured list after undergoing a rotator cuff repair in his right shoulder. He’ll be the everyday center fielder upon his return. Varsho is one of the game’s best defenders, but he’s been a roughly league average hitter when healthy. Any lingering effects from the shoulder issue could push him toward the bottom third of the lineup. Their in-house options to play left field (e.g. Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase) have limited MLB experience.

The Jays need at least one everyday outfielder. There’s an argument that they need to acquire regulars in both corners to push Springer into a limited role. Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are the biggest remaining bats in the free agent outfield class. Both players declined qualifying offers. Jurickson Profar, who did not receive the QO, is coming off a fantastic season. Max Kepler, Jesse Winker and Austin Hays are among potential rebound candidates.

KBO’s Doosan Bears Sign Zach Logue

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The Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed left-hander Zach Logue to an $800K contract, reports Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. That includes a $100K signing bonus for the MSM Sports Management client. As a corresponding move, Doosan voided its previous agreement with righty Thomas Hatch because of concerns about his physical.

That opens an opportunity for the 28-year-old Logue. The southpaw is coming off an excellent Triple-A showing. Logue pitched 97 1/3 innings of 2.59 ERA ball in the upper minors between the Braves and Dodgers systems. That earned him a late-season cameo with Los Angeles. Logue pitched twice for the Dodgers and gave up four runs over two innings.

Logue has appeared in the majors in three consecutive seasons. The majority of that experience came with the A’s in 2022. He started 10 of 14 appearances that year, struggling to a 6.79 earned run average over 57 innings. Logue made three long relief appearances for the Tigers the following season, allowing nine runs over 11 innings.

The Dodgers declined to tender him a contract last month. He could certainly have found a minor league deal if he wanted to stay in affiliated ball, but he’ll land a much better guarantee with the Bears. This will be Logue’s first overseas work after eight years in the minors. He joins fellow southpaw Cole Irvin and outfielder Jake Cave as the team’s three foreign-born players.

Mets Sign Griffin Canning

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The Mets finalized the signing of right-hander Griffin Canning to a one-year free agent deal. The Wasserman client is reportedly guaranteed $4.25MM and could make an additional $1MM via incentives. Canning would unlock $250K bonuses for reaching 22, 25, 28 and 31 starts. The Mets had four open roster spots, so no corresponding move was necessary.

This will technically be Canning’s third team of the offseason. The Angels dealt him to the Braves in a one-for-one swap for Jorge Soler within hours of the trade market reopening. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out at the time, Canning wasn’t a lock to stick in Atlanta for more than a few weeks. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $5.1MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. The Braves balked at that price and non-tendered him, affirming that the trade was about shedding the final two years of Soler’s contract.

That made Canning a free agent for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old heads to Queens and should compete for a rotation job. Canning has over five years of service time and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. He’ll be on the MLB roster in some capacity, though it’s possible he’ll be pushed into long relief to open the year.

A second-round pick out of UCLA in 2017, Canning immediately became one of the Angels’ better pitching prospects. He profiled as a quick-moving college arm who had a chance to land in the middle of the rotation. Canning reached the big leagues within two years, but he’s had an up-and-down career. He posted a 4.58 earned run average over 90 1/3 innings as a rookie. His best season came during the shortened 2020 schedule, as he turned in a 3.99 ERA through 11 starts.

That remains Canning’s only sub-4.00 showing. Opponents tagged him for a 5.60 ERA across 14 MLB appearances in 2021, leading the Halos to option him to Triple-A. He landed on the injured list almost immediately with a stress reaction in his lower back. That carried into the following year and cost him the entire 2022 season.

At the time, it looked as if injuries could derail his career. The back was the most severe, but he’d also battled recurring elbow soreness early in his career. Canning has fortunately managed to stay mostly healthy over the last two seasons. He landed on the injured list twice in 2023, though both were minimal stints related to minor leg issues. Canning avoided the IL entirely this year. His effectiveness has waned, however.

Canning pitched to a 4.32 ERA across 127 innings two seasons ago. This year was a struggle, as he allowed 5.19 earned runs per nine over a career-high 171 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate plummeted to a personal-low 17.6%, more than eight points south of the previous year’s 25.9% clip. The walks ticked up a couple points while his swinging strike percentage dipped from 12.8% to a league average 11% rate.

The stuff also took a slight step backwards. Canning averaged 93.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, a tick below the prior season’s 94.7 MPH mark. Opponents teed off on that pitch, connecting on 16 homers with a .529 slugging percentage. Canning features a fairly typical four-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball) and has intermittently looked like a fourth starter. The Mets will try to help him find that form more consistently.

Canning becomes the third potential starter whom the Mets have added via free agency. They went to the middle of the market for upside plays on Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, the latter of whom will stretch into rotation work after six seasons as a full-time reliever. Canning doesn’t have the same ceiling — hence the far lower price tag — but aligns with New York’s seeming preference for stockpiling depth.

Montas, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Holmes should all be in the Opening Day rotation. Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn would vie for the fifth starter job as things stand. The Mets could prefer to run a six-man rotation. Senga was limited to one regular season start this year by injury. They’ll need to closely monitor Holmes’ workload so he doesn’t fatigue. Blackburn finished 2024 on the IL and underwent a postseason spinal surgery that could delay him in Spring Training.

The Mets could use at least another mid-rotation arm to solidify that group. They’ve stayed in contact with Sean Manaea since he declined their qualifying offer. Various reports have cast them as a long shot to land Corbin Burnes, but The Athletic tied them to Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta (each of whom remains unsigned) during the Winter Meetings. Adding another starter would allow the Mets to push at least one of Canning, Megill or Blackburn into a multi-inning relief role.

RosterResource calculates New York’s salary commitments and competitive balance tax number around $255MM. Owner Steve Cohen has been comfortable pushing their CBT number well beyond $300MM in previous years. There’s little reason for him to pull back now that they’ve landed Juan Soto. For now, they remain in the lowest tier of luxury tax penalization. They’re taxed at a 50% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM, so the tax hit on Canning is $2.125MM. That brings the investment to $6.375MM before incentives.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Mets were signing Canning to a $4.25MM deal with $1MM in bonuses. The Associated Press reported the incentive specifics.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Rays, Joey Gerber Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Rays are in agreement with reliever Joey Gerber on a minor league contract, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The right-hander receives a non-roster invitation to MLB camp.

Gerber, 27, is attempting to get to the big leagues for the first time in five years. The Illinois product debuted with the Mariners during the shortened 2020 season. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) across 15 2/3 innings. A forearm injury essentially robbed him of the next two years, leading the Mariners to release him midway through the ’22 season. Gerber caught on with the Yankees shortly after being released by Seattle, but injuries continued to plague him. He missed all of 2023 and spent the first half of this past season on the minor league IL.

In late June, Gerber was finally healthy enough to be reinstated. The Yankees assigned him to Double-A Somerset. He struck out 18 while only allowing three runs across 15 1/3 frames. That earned him a bump to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Gerber wasn’t quite as dominant as he’d been in Double-A. He tossed 14 innings and allowed 10 runs (six earned). He punched out 15 and issued eight walks.

Gerber’s fastball averaged 93.5 MPH during his Triple-A work this year. That’s in line with his velocity from his 2020 debut campaign. He got swinging strikes on a solid 13.4% of his offerings for Scranton. The arm strength and swing-and-miss were intriguing enough for the Rays to give him a non-roster camp invitation. If Gerber is able to stay healthy, he could find his way into Kevin Cash’s bullpen at some point.

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