Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is now just a few weeks away from becoming a free agent for the first time, but it seems there’s a chance he might not make it to the open market. General manager Dana Brown spoke with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and was asked about the situation, indicating that they still hope to approach Bregman at some point in the near future.
“We were in Anaheim the other day and I ran into [agent Scott Boras] and we started talking a little bit,” Brown said. “And we both said, ‘Look, once we get towards the end of the season and things are over, we’ll definitely engage and talk about it.’ We had a small conversation about it. Right now, we’re not in any discussions about contract offers. We both agreed we will meet back up.”
Brown was hired as the GM in January of 2023 and, from the beginning, has been consistent in saying that the club planned to talk to Bregman and his reps about a new contract at some point. Bregman and the Astros agreed to a five-year, $100MM extension in 2019. When Brown was hired and began talking about the desire to get a new deal done, there were still two years left on that pact but it’s now almost complete.
Getting a deal done at this point will be challenging but not impossible. While public reputation suggests Boras clients don’t sign extensions, there are a few examples that contradict that narrative, with the most recent coming less than two weeks ago. Matt Chapman, another Boras client, agreed to a six-year, $151MM pact with the Giants to prevent him from triggering his opt-out and returning to free agency.
Bregman will have an argument to top the Chapman deal. The two players have provided similar value on the field in recent years, with Bregman generally hitting more but Chapman providing better defensive value. But Bregman is a year younger, which should give him the edge. Both players had arguably their best seasons in 2018 and 2019. They have each fallen off a bit since then but have still been solidly above average players.
Bregman was undoubtedly better at that 2018-19 apex. He hit .291/.409/.561 over those two seasons for a 162 wRC+, while Chapman was at .263/.348/.507 and a 132 wRC+. Chapman provided more with the glove but still came up short overall, producing 11.9 wins above replacement compared to Bregman’s 16.2, per FanGraphs.
Since then, it’s been almost a dead heat. From 2020 to the present, Bregman has hit .260/.350/.442 for a 124 wRC+ while Chapman has a .231/.321/.434 line and 112 wRC+. Chapman makes up some of the difference with better baserunning but mostly defense: 44 Defensive Runs Saved and 33 Outs Above Average for Chapman compared to 10 DRS and 13 OAA for Bregman. Overall, Bregman has a 17 fWAR tally in that time while Chapman is narrowly behind at 16.7.
Given that similar production, Bregman and Boras should be able to use Chapman’s deal as a floor, with Bregman’s younger age justification in asking for an even greater guarantee. That kind of contract would be pretty unprecedented for the Astros, who have generally shied away from mega deals, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. They did give Jose Altuve an extension of five years and $151MM back in 2018, the largest deal in franchise history, but that deal began with Altuve’s age-29 season.
They were also near the start of their competitive window and had lots of payroll space at the time, which is no longer the case. The Astros are set to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time this year. They went over the CBT line in 2020 but the tax was paused during the pandemic and they have stayed under since.
Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s CBT number is at $254MM for the year, well beyond the $237MM base threshold. Cot’s lists their 2025 number at $151MM but that doesn’t appear to include Ryan Pressly’s $14MM option, which he vested last month and is guaranteed as long as he’s healthy at season’s end. Adding that gets us to $165MM, then arbitration raises for Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker should add roughly $35MM or so, taking the number to about $200MM. Arb deals for guys like Bryan Abreu, José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Mauricio Dubón and others will add to that total as well.
Re-signing Bregman seems to be a priority for the club but they will naturally have other offseason business to attend to. Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi are set to become free agents, putting two holes in a rotation that has already been heavily bit by the injury bug. Perhaps Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. will be healthy and in the mix by next year, but adding to the starting group could be on the winter to-do list.
Addressing the pitching staff and adding a notable deal for Bregman would likely leave the club as a tax payor for a second straight year. Paying the tax in consecutive seasons comes with escalating penalties. A second-time payor sees its base tax rate go from 20% to 30%, with higher penalties for going beyond the additional tiers.
Whether the sides can get a deal done and keep Bregman in Houston remains to be seen. The club clearly wants it to happen based on how often Brown has talked about it, but it’s also never seemed like there’s been much momentum towards meaningful discussions. Even if Bregman eventually makes it to the open market, the Astros could re-sign him, but they would naturally have competition from the other clubs around the league. MLBTR ranked Bregman third on our most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, behind only Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic mentioned the Tigers as a speculative fit for Bregman this winter.
