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Astros Telling Teams They Don’t Intend To Trade Framber Valdez

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The Astros are telling opposing teams they do not intend to trade left-hander Framber Valdez, writes Jeff Passan of ESPN. Houston’s ace had come up in trade rumors at the Winter Meetings.

In response to a question regarding the availability of Valdez and Kyle Tucker, general manager Dana Brown said he was willing to “listen on all the players.” That proved a precursor for the Tucker blockbuster, which dropped a few days later and subsequently lessened the financial pressure for the Astros to move Valdez. After the Tucker deal, Brown said that he didn’t anticipate trading Valdez but would continue listening to offers.

There could be semantics at play. Few players around the league are truly untouchable. There’s presumably some point at which an offer would compel them to consider moving Valdez. For now, however, it seems they’re unwilling to do so. The two-time All-Star is set to return to the top of a rotation that’ll also include Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and likely Spencer Arrighetti. Righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. could be back by Opening Day, while J.P. France could return midseason. Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade, can compete for a rotation or multi-inning relief role.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary during his final arbitration season. Brown said last week that there’d been no recent extension talks. The southpaw is trending towards walking in free agency on a nine-figure deal. While Houston didn’t want that to happen with Tucker, they were content to allow George Springer and Carlos Correa to depart as free agents. Alex Bregman could follow suit. They’d recoup a draft choice if Valdez walks after declining a qualifying offer, which he’d surely do if he enjoys a 2025 season that’s in line with his lofty standards. That’s less valuable than what they’d receive in trade, but they’re weighing that against the desire to win the AL West again in 2025.

Brown expressed optimism that the Astros would be able to take the division even if they traded one of Tucker or Valdez. The return package reflected that balance. Cam Smith immediately became the top prospect in a weak farm system, while Isaac Paredes and Wesneski jump right onto the MLB roster.

Valdez is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing across 176 1/3 innings. That marked his fourth consecutive year with an ERA south of 3.50. Valdez has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for three seasons running. He has topped 175 frames in each of those years.

Brewers, Bruce Zimmermann Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have agreed to a minor league deal with left-hander Bruce Zimmermann, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The Ballengee client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this coming spring.

Zimmermann, 29, has appeared in parts of four seasons. All four of those came with the Baltimore native’s hometown club. From 2020-23, he pitched 158 1/3 frames for the Orioles, mostly out of the rotation, posting a 5.57 ERA along the way. He regularly showed plus command (career 5.2% walk rate), but Zimmermann’s 89-91 mph fastball proved too hittable and led to troubles keeping the ball in the park (2.27 HR/9).

While Zimmermann’s big league results have clearly been sub-par, he’s logged a more palatable 4.20 ERA in 306 1/3 innings across parts of five Triple-A seasons. Despite the lack of velocity, he’s punched out a solid 22.8% of his opponent at that level and coupled that with a similarly sound 8% walk rate. The 2024 season was the first since 2019 in which Zimmermann did not appear in the majors. He pitched 80 minor league innings with a 4.16 ERA on the year, splitting his time between the rotation and bullpen.

Zimmermann will give the Brewers some more affordable rotation depth behind the projected starting five of Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale and Tobias Myers. Southpaws Aaron Ashby and DL Hall are both on the 40-man roster and could get looks in the ’pen or as starters.

Other rotation candidates include Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick, though the latter two have yet to actually make their MLB debuts. Top pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski had a nice season between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and 2022 second-rounder should be in line for his MLB debut at some point during the 2025 campaign. Milwaukee has been on the hunt for extra rotation stability this offseason but doesn’t have much money to work with as they work toward that goal.

The Brewers picked up a plug-and-play mid-rotation arm, Cortes, in the trade sending closer Devin Williams to the Yankees, but they’re still likely to be in the mix for some more low-cost arms.

Reds Claim Roansy Contreras

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The Reds claimed right-hander Roansy Contreras off waivers from the Rangers on Thursday, per announcements from both clubs. Texas had designated him for assignment last week. Cincinnati had a pair of vacancies on its 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary.

Contreras, still just 25, will join his second organization of the offseason and third of the past calendar year. Once a top pitching prospect with the Yankees and Pirates — New York traded him to Pittsburgh in the Jameson Taillon swap — he’s begun to bounce around the league in journeyman fashion. Pittsburgh traded him to Anaheim for cash back in May, and the Rangers claimed him off waivers from the Halos on Halloween.

Back in 2022, Contreras looked like he was on his way to cementing a long-term place in the Pirates’ rotation. He pitched 95 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate in that rookie campaign. A year later, the right-hander lost more than a mile per hour off his heater and was trounced for a 6.59 ERA in 68 1/3 big league frames. His work in Triple-A Indianapolis was similarly shaky, with an ERA just under 5.00 in eight appearances (six starts).

Out of minor league options and losing his grip on a roster spot, Contreras was designated for assignment back in May. The Angels leaned on him for 52 innings of low-leverage relief following that cash swap, and Contreras held his own with a 4.33 ERA and more questionable rate stats (17.9 K%, 10.6 BB%). The full-time move to the ’pen didn’t get Contreras’ velocity back up to its previous 96 mph average; he sat 94.9 mph with the pitch in 2024.

If Contreras lasts the rest of the offseason on the Reds’ 40-man roster, he’ll compete for a bullpen spot this spring. He’d need to make the Opening Day club or else be designated for assignment once again, as he can’t be sent down to Triple-A without first clearing waivers. Alexis Diaz, Brent Suter, Fernando Cruz, Sam Moll, Emilio Pagan and Tony Santillan are all likely locked into spots (barring injuries or trades), but there could still be a couple openings up for grabs in camp, depending on how the front office proceeds for the remainder of the offseason.

Mariners Claim Nick Raposo

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2:20pm: The Mariners have now announced the claim. Their 40-man roster is up to 38 players.

1:00pm: The Mariners have claimed catcher Nick Raposo off waivers from the Blue Jays, MLBTR has learned. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. The Mariners had 40-man roster vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Raposo, 27 in June, still hasn’t made his major league debut. The Cardinals added him to their 40-man roster in June when both Willson Contreras and Iván Herrera were on the injured list, but Contreras was reinstated a few days later. Raposo was optioned to the minors without getting into a game. He was designated for assignment in July when the Cards added Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a deal just before the deadline. He was claimed by the Jays and stuck on their roster until last week, getting designated for assignment again when Toronto signed Yimi García.

Over the past four years, Raposo has taken 808 plate appearances in the minors. He has a combined batting line of .241/.321/.387 in that time, which translates to a wRC+ of 85. Baseball Prospectus has generally given him solid marks for his blocking and throwing in the minors.

The Mariners only really have one proper catcher on the 40-man roster right now in Cal Raleigh. They also have Mitch Garver, who they signed last offseason with the idea of using him as a full-time designated hitter. That plan didn’t work out as Garver struggled with the bat in 2024, so the M’s did eventually put him behind the plate a few times, either to try to extract some value from him or with the hope that returning to catching would somehow help get back in a groove offensively. Seby Zavala was the third backstop to play for the M’s in 2024 but he was outrighted off the roster in September and signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox last month.

It’s unclear how the M’s plan to tackle their catching situation in 2025, apart from Raleigh being the obvious mainstay. If Garver is the backup, then Raposo can serve as an optionable depth piece in Triple-A. If Garver is going to be heavily in the DH mix, Raposo could battle for the backup job. The nature of that battle will depend on who else the M’s bring in, whether that’s veterans on non-roster deals or perhaps other waiver claims such as this one.

Phillies, Nick Vespi Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent left-hander Nick Vespi, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The Ballengee Group client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Vespi, 29, has seen big league time with the Orioles in each of the past three seasons. He’s tallied 53 1/3 innings along the way, pitching to a solid 3.88 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.9% walk rate. Vespi embodies the “finesse lefty” archetype, sitting 89 mph on his cutter, but he’s missed bats (12.9% swinging-strike rate) and kept the ball on the ground (44.7%) at clips that are slightly better than league average.

Despite the solid work in the majors, Vespi was designated for assignment in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed. A disastrous showing in Triple-A this year surely contributed to that outcome. Vespi pitched 42 1/3 innings down in Norfolk but was rocked for a 7.23 ERA. A sky-high .424 average on balls in play played a role in inflating his earned run average, but Vespi also walked a very uncharacteristic 14.6% of his opponents and plunked three more. A whopping 16% of his opponents in Triple-A reached via base-on-balls or hit-by-pitch.

If Vespi can get back to the solid command he showed both in Triple-A and in the majors, he’ll have a good chance of pitching his way into the Phillies’ plans. He may not throw hard, but he’s been good in three Triple-A seasons prior to 2024 and has had some solid big league results in Baltimore. Vespi generally limits hard contact well — career 87.9 mph average exit velocity and 37.7% hard-hit rate — and did so quite well in Norfolk this year even while struggling with his bottom-line results (85.7 mph average exit velocity, 27.6% hard-hit rate).

He’ll need to earn the opportunity with a strong spring or impressive early work in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but if Vespi does land on the big league roster, he can be controlled not only for the 2025 season but an additional five years beyond that point.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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The potential for a Nolan Arenado trade has been one of the most persistent storylines of the 2024-25 offseason, and Arenado surged into the spotlight yesterday when it was reported that he invoked his no-trade clause to quash a deal that would’ve sent him to the Astros.

Further details on the matter, unsurprisingly, have continued to leak out today and presumably will in the days and weeks ahead. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that while Arenado vetoed the potential deal to Houston, the Cardinals and Astros will continue to negotiate and an eventual deal remains possible. Of further note, while there’s been plenty of talk regarding the number of teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, Goold suggests that the third baseman has not at any point submitted a formal list of such teams to the Cardinals. Around five teams have spoken with the Cardinals about a trade, per the report.

The lack of a firm list could potentially be due to the fact that Arenado’s willingness to approve a trade to another club is context-dependent. Agent Joel Wolfe made clear at last week’s Winter Meetings that Arenado’s goal is to land with a clear win-now team that will continue to pursue a World Series title for the balance of the three years remaining on his contract. A team’s offseason dealings can impact the perception of whether they’re a true long-term contender.

Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic report that, somewhat ironically, the very same move that in some regards paved the way for Houston’s pursuit of Arenado might’ve reduced his willingness to go there: the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. For a player seeking a perennial win-now atmosphere, a team simultaneously trading its best player and balking at re-signing a franchise cornerstone (Alex Bregman) logically raises some red flags. Woo and Rome write that Arenado wants to further see how the third-base market plays out before making any kind of decision, with Bregman’s eventual landing spot being one potential factor.

If that sounds counterintuitive, consider that Arenado could be viewed as something of a “Plan B” for teams with interest in Bregman. Bregman has been linked to both the Yankees and Red Sox, for instance. Either could hold appeal to Arenado, speculatively speaking, but they may choose not to ramp up their pursuit until Bregman is off the table. Revisiting the talks with Houston could also occur if Bregman signs elsewhere.

MLB.com’s John Denton appeared on 101 ESPN’s BK and Ferrario Show in St. Louis this morning and touched on the Arenado saga as well. He echoed many of the same points made in those reports and in his own reporting in helping break the no-trade development yesterday, but he added the wrinkle that Arenado is still holding out hope for a potential match with the Dodgers.

While Dodgers brass has publicly indicated that Max Muncy will be the team’s third baseman next season, Denton suggested some gamesmanship in those comments and reports that the Dodgers still have some interest in Arenado. It’s hard to see how that’d work with Muncy in the fold, Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani locked in at designated hitter.

Muncy would make a pricey and overqualified bench player. He’s a highly affordable starter at third, owed $12MM this year with a $10MM club option for 2026. Muncy doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but the 2023-24 version of Arenado isn’t a clear upgrade overall — certainly not when Muncy has been the superior hitter. Muncy’s .232/.358/.494 slash in 2024 (135 wRC+) outpaces Arenado’s .272/.325/.394 output (102 wRC+) — higher batting average for Arenado notwithstanding. Those roadblocks aside, Denton feels the Dodgers aren’t entirely out of the question and that Arenado isn’t likely to approve a deal anywhere “until the Dodgers tell him no to his face.”

There were clearly many factors that went into Arenado’s decision to utilize his no-trade provision, but regardless of the specifics, the scratched Houston deal leaves the Cards in limbo. They’d like to open third base playing time for younger players (e.g. Nolan Gorman, perhaps Jordan Walker) and are simultaneously hopeful of scaling back payroll ahead of next year’s player development-focused “reset” year.

Trading Arenado would’ve done just that, particularly with the Astros apparently willing to foot the majority of the bill. Woo and Rome indicate that Houston was willing to cover around $45MM of Arenado’s deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears differently, reporting that the Astros were willing to cover a heftier $59MM of the $74MM remaining on the contract. That’s on top of the $10MM the Rockies are covering under the terms of their prior deal. In essence, it seems the Cardinals would’ve only been on the hook for anywhere from $5-19MM in total — as compared to the $64MM they currently owe Arenado ($12MM of which is deferred). Woo and Rome write that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is “facing pressure from ownership” to further reduce payroll.

Taking a step further back, Arenado’s various reported reasons for saying no to the Astros — at least for the time being — suggest we may not get resolution on his trade candidacy anytime soon. If Arenado is waiting to see both whether the Dodgers make a serious push and to see where Bregman lands (perhaps opening the door for a match with an AL East contender), then the Cardinals’ hands are tied to an extent. Passan writes that the Houston veto could push the Cards to show willingness to eat more of the contract, thus bringing in additional suitors. Even in that scenario, the ball would be squarely in Arenado’s court, and if he’s willing to wait out several related market factors, this saga could drag on for some time.

In that scenario, the Cardinals might well be forced to look into other ways they could shed some payroll. Steven Matz ($12MM), Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) and Ryan Helsley (projected $6.9MM) are among the other short-term veterans on the roster who don’t hold the same no-trade provisions that Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Miles Mikolas hold. Both Contreras and Gray have reportedly told the Cardinals that they prefer to stay in St. Louis and do not plan to waive their no-trade rights.

Mariners To Re-Sign Josh Fleming To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners are going to sign left-hander Josh Fleming to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Republik Sports client also receives an invite to major league spring training.

Fleming, 29 in May, just signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in August. He made 19 appearances for their Triple-A club down the stretch, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine innings. He didn’t get added to the roster and became a free agent at season’s end, though has now circled back the M’s on a fresh deal.

The southpaw has appeared as a swingman in each of the past five major league seasons, mostly with the Rays but also with the Pirates. He has appeared in 80 major league games, including 25 starts, tossing 254 2/3 innings with a 4.77 ERA. His 14.6% strikeout rate is well below par but his 7.5% walk rate is good and his 58.4% ground ball rate quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched from 2020 to the present, only five of them have a better grounder rate than Fleming: Clay Holmes, Andre Pallante, Framber Valdez, Emmanuel Clase and Logan Webb.

Fleming’s strikeout rate is far lower than everyone in that group, which has prevented him from posting especially strong results, but he’s been serviceable enough to serve as a solid depth piece. On a minor league deal, there’s no risk for the M’s.

Seattle has a very strong rotation but the depth is a little concerning. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are an excellent front five but things get flimsy beyond that. There have been some trade rumors surrounding Castillo this winter, which could lead to Emerson Hancock or Jhonathan Díaz moving up to the number five spot. In the bullpen, guys like Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar are working back from Tommy John surgeries, while Gregory Santos spent most of 2024 on the injured list due to arm issues.

Fleming gives the club a bit of depth for both areas without taking up a roster spot. If he gets added at any point, he is out of options but has less than four years of service time, meaning he could be retained into future seasons via arbitration.

Luzardo Talks Between Cubs, Marlins Have Reportedly Cooled

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The Cubs have been extremely active on the trade market over the past week, but it seems their latest deal may have hit a snag. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score said on air this morning that Chicago’s talks for Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo “appear to be dead” after having some serious momentum earlier in the week (audio link, Luzardo talk around the 2:13:45 mark). It’s not entirely clear whether the parties will seek to rekindle negotiations, but Levine suggests that medical reviews on one side or the other could have thrown a wrench into talks.

The natural inclination for many will be to presume that Luzardo’s medical records proved to be the hitch, but there’s no firm indication that’s the case. It’s every bit as possible that the Marlins took a look at medical records on one of the prospects who was a focal point in the proposed return and balked at what they saw.

Luzardo, 27, has repeatedly demonstrated front-of-the-rotation potential but hasn’t been able to consistently deliver results at that level — often due to injuries. He posted a 3.48 ERA with an excellent 28.7% strikeout rate against a sharp 7.9% walk rate in 279 innings from 2022-23 but missed time along the way due to a forearm strain. Luzardo, who had Tommy John surgery as a prospect, also spent time on the injured list early in 2024 due to elbow tightness. He returned and pitched well — 3.98 ERA over his next seven starts — only to land back on the injured list in mid-June with a lumbar stress reaction that wound up ending his season.

Luzardo has only reached 100 big league innings twice in his career and has only started more than 18 games in the majors once. Including minor league work, he topped 100 innings each year from 2021-23, but those are his only professional seasons doing so. His 178 2/3 innings from 2023 are far and away a career-high mark.

Durability concerns notwithstanding, prime-aged lefties who average around 96 mph on their heater while boasting plus swinging-strike and strikeout rates alike are rare. Add Luzardo’s at least average command into the mix, and the potential for him to emerge as a bona fide star is clear. He was a top-100 draft pick and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball prior to his debut, after all. However, keeping him healthy has been a difficult task for the A’s and Marlins alike.

Even if it was Luzardo’s medicals that held up a potential deal — and again, we decidedly do not know that to be the case — that doesn’t eliminate the possibility of a trade sending him elsewhere. We’ve seen plenty of past instances where one team backs out of a deal based on a player’s medicals while another club finds them acceptable. For instance, the Yankees reportedly nixed a trade for Jack Flaherty over the summer due to medical concerns. The Dodgers were comfortable enough making a deal and got 10 regular season starts out of Flaherty, plus another five in the postseason. Different teams have different thresholds, and everything that’s taken into consideration is done so relative to the valuation of the players going the other direction in the deal.

As for the Cubs and what might be next if the Luzardo talks can’t be revived — that’s an open question. The trade of Cody Bellinger trimmed $25MM of his $27.5MM salary from the books, giving Chicago plenty of flexibility. RosterResource estimates their current payroll to be around $174MM, with just over $191MM of luxury obligations. That puts the Cubs roughly $50MM shy of the first luxury threshold. At least on paper, that leaves room to add virtually any free agent without needing to worry about the luxury tax, though Levine pushes back strongly on the idea of Chicago making a run at Corbin Burnes.

There’s a clear need for bullpen help and a strong likelihood that the Cubs will jump into the market for some notable late-inning options. History suggests that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer will prefer to keep any free agent commitments there to the short-term variety. Hoyer has not given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since taking over baseball operations in Chicago. Kirby Yates, old friend David Robertson and Kenley Jansen are among the older but still-effective closing options who could be had on short-term deals. If the Cubs are willing to break from their past behavior on the relief market and pursue larger-scale targets, then names like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez currently top the market.

The Opener: Astros, Sasaki, Contreras

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As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. What’s next for the Astros?

The Astros are one week removed from a franchise-altering trade that shipped star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in exchange for a package of three players, including All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes. Even with Paredes in the fold, Houston not only remains in the market for Alex Bregman — they also reportedly made a push to acquire Nolan Arenado from the Cardinals only for Arenado to block the deal with his no-trade clause.

Had Houston successfully brought in Arenado, it seems likely they would’ve moved Paredes over to first base. That remains a possibility for the club if they re-sign Bregman or Arenado can be convinced to waive his no-trade clause at some point down the line, but it also seems possible that the club could turn to Paredes at third and target first base help such as longtime Diamondbacks slugger Christian Walker, to whom they’ve been connected in free agency and in the lead-up to the 2024 trade deadline.

2. Sasaki scheduling meetings with teams?

Yankees GM Brian Cashman revealed to reporters (including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic) yesterday that his club has been granted an in-person meeting with star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki, who was posted for MLB clubs during the Winter Meetings and figures to sign with a team as an international amateur next month. Until Sasaki makes his decision sometime after the international amateur free agency window for 2025 opens on January 15, he’ll be heavily courted by the majority of the league, given the unique circumstances of his free agency.

3. Contreras resolution imminent:

When the Rangers landed right-handers Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Webb in free agency last week, that left the club in need of a 40-man roster spot. They chose to designate right-hander Roansy Contreras for assignment, which gave them a seven-day window in which they could either work out a trade involving Contreras or attempt to pass him through waivers. That window is set to expire today, meaning an announcement regarding Contreras’s future should be imminent. (Since waivers take 48 hours, which are included in that weeklong window, it seems Contreras is already on waivers.)

The 25-year-old hurler was once a consensus top-100 prospect with the Pirates and looked like at least a solid back-of-the-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he posted a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings. A disastrous 2023 season caused him to move to the bullpen, however, and since then he’s profiled more as a middle reliever as he’s moved from Pittsburgh to Anaheim to Arlington. Now, Contreras may find himself on the move again if he’s claimed off waivers by another club. Should he clear waivers, the Rangers would have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues as non-roster depth for the 2025 season.

Nolan Arenado Uses No-Trade Clause To Block Trade To Astros

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The Cardinals are known to be looking to trade Nolan Arenado this offseason, but the talks are complicated by the fact that he has a full no-trade clause in his contract. Per a report today from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Cards and Astros were in discussion on a trade to send him to Houston before Arenado informed St. Louis that he would not be waiving his no-trade clause to join the Astros. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic provided some additional details.

The Cardinals are planning for 2025 to be sort of a reset year, which has put Arenado’s name into trade rumors for the past few months. At the winter meetings last week, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said that he intended to try to line up a deal. The idea would seem to be mutually beneficial. Arenado turns 34 in March and could get a chance to go to a club with more immediate aims of playing competitive baseball. The Cards would save some money and open up playing time to get looks at less established players like Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker.

But as mentioned, Arenado gets a say in the matter via that no-trade clause. It was reported last week that he would approve a trade to six teams: the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox. It wasn’t clear if that was an exhaustive list but the Astros weren’t on it. Per today’s report from Woo and Rome, that list originally included the Astros but they were removed, perhaps due to the recent Kyle Tucker trade and uncertainty around the Alex Bregman situation.

Speaking of Bregman, he has long been the third baseman in Houston, though there are some signs they are planning on moving on. In the years leading up to his free agency, they repeatedly said that they wanted to re-sign him but no deal ever came together. He is still unsigned but there was reportedly a gap in the negotiations, with the club offering him $156MM over six years while he was looking for something more in the $200MM range.

On top of that, the Astros made a big trade last week which arguably got them a Bregman replacement for the hot corner. In sending Tucker to the Cubs, the Astros got three players back, one of whom was Isaac Paredes. While Paredes has played all four infield positions, he’s played third base far more than the other three spots combined.

But in the aftermath of that trade, it was reported that the Astros were emerging as “a serious suitor” for Arenado. Since Arenado is renowned for his third base defense, the plan would presumably be to move Paredes over to first base, since that’s also a target area for Houston. Though it appears Arenado isn’t on board, which puts that whole plan on ice for now.

It’s not clear what the full deal was or why Arenado decided to put the kibosh on it. All reporting has suggested that winning is Arenado’s primary motivation with his theoretical next team and the Astros would seemingly fit the bill. Despite just trading Tucker, they are still planning to compete again in 2025 and have been one of the winningest clubs of the past decade. Perhaps his decision has something to do with geography, the Astros sign-stealing scandal or the Astros-Cardinals data breach scandal, though those would be just guesses. Woo and Rome’s report suggests that he wants more time to make his decision and this isn’t final.

Aside from Arenado blocking the deal, the most notable item in today’s reporting is that the Cardinals were apparently willing to eat money. Arenado is going to make $74MM over the next three years but $10MM is covered by the Rockies as part of the trade that sent him from Colorado to St. Louis. There are also some deferrals, which apparently drop the present day value of what’s owed from $64MM to about $60MM, per the MLB.com column. But the Cards were willing to include $15-20MM so that the Astros would only be on the hook for $40-45MM of that. The Athletic says the Cards were willing to eat $5MM per season for the rest of the deal, or exactly $15MM.

That’s a sensible position for the Cards to take. While lowering the payroll is a goal for their planned reset year, it’s already projected to be well below their recent spending levels. RosterResource projects the 2025 payroll to be almost $40MM below 2024 levels. Trading Arenado, even if they eat some of the money, would only widen that gap while allowing the club to get a more notable return in terms of young talent.

It also may have helped the Astros stay under the competitive balance tax, with RosterResource currently putting their number at $225MM. If they were to take on roughly three years and $45MM of Arenado’s deal, that would add $15MM to their number and put them right around the $241MM base threshold.

Now the major questions will be about what comes next for each club. Both reports suggest that the Astros and Cardinals will continue having discussions, but it’s possible that they may have to pivot to other options while they are still available, depending on how much time Arenado wants to make up his mind about Houston. The Astros could look to restart negotiations with Bregman or pivot to a first baseman like Christian Walker. The Cardinals could try to negotiate a new deal with one of the other clubs that Arenado is perhaps less hesitant about joining.

Arenado was an MVP finalist as recently as a couple of years ago but his offense has dipped in recent years. In 2022, he hit 30 home runs and slashed .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+. When combined with his excellent glovework, FanGraphs credited him with 7.2 wins above replacement that year. But over the past two years, he has hit .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+, barely above league average. He’s still been worth close to 3 fWAR annually in that time thanks to the defense, but it’s obviously a concerning drop. Most of his home runs come to the pull side, so playing in front of Houston’s Crawford Boxes could be a good fit for him, but he would have to want that.

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