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MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Cubs, Adames, Adell

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Today's mailbag gets into offseason needs for the Red Sox, how the Cubs might fit Matt Shaw in, possible suitors for Willy Adames, whether Jo Adell has turned a corner, and much more.

Dave asks:

As a disgruntled Red Sox fan (mostly due to John Henry pulling in the purse strings), what are the Red Sox's biggest needs going into next season? I think as always the need for another innings eater in the rotation. Also curious as to if Duran was offered as trade, what type of starting pitching would he command? As for free agents - I don't think the Sox will bring back any of them. Although for the right price maybe Pivetta.

Here's how the team sets up right now:

That doesn't include a quartet of highly-regarded position player prospects: outfielder Roman Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, infielder/center fielder Kristian Campbell, and catcher Kyle Teel.   And of course, Rafaela can play center as well as the middle infield.

The Red Sox will need someone to split time at catcher with Wong until Teel is ready, whether it's Danny Jansen or another veteran.  Second base has been an issue, with Grissom, Enmanuel Valdez, and David Hamilton getting the bulk of the playing time there.  With Mayer, Campbell, and Rafaela all options there, I don't see much room for a veteran.

The outfield pieces can move around as well.  Wilyer Abreu has had an excellent rookie season, though he has not shown the ability to hit left-handed pitching.  That problem extended even to Devers and Duran this year.  Of the prospects I mentioned, only Campbell bats right-handed.  Baseball America touched on this issue recently.

Devers had a strong year, while Story's contract demands a starting job.  Yoshida, also well-paid, might not have that luxury.  The Red Sox signed Rafaela to a $50MM contract in April, but he really hasn't hit outside of July and is on track for a 1-WAR season.  I'm not sure where he fits.

At 4.71 runs scored per game, this has been a good offense.  That's despite giving regular playing time to Rafaela.  It also includes big contributions from Tyler O'Neill, who seems likely to leave as a free agent, and Rob Refsnyder, who's unlikely to repeat.

Given the versatility and uncertainty around several of these players, there are a lot of ways next year's lineup can shake out.  I've seen the idea of trading Duran mentioned here and there.  Duran, 28, will be arbitration eligible for the first of four times in 2025 and is under control through 2028.  He's split his time between center and left field in his breakout season, and played both positions capably.  He's one of baseball's fastest players, his arm is strong, and his Statcast hitting metrics are solidly red.

Duran is on track for a 7-WAR season that in many years would make him an MVP frontrunner.  He provided the bulk of his offensive value from June through August, during which he had a 168 wRC+.  Duran has an 87 wRC+ against lefties this year, though he did hit southpaws well in June and July.

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Craig Breslow Talks Red Sox’s Offseason

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The Red Sox lost to the Blue Jays tonight, minutes after wins by the Royals and Tigers. That officially eliminated Boston from playoff contention and turns their attention completely to the offseason. Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with the Boston beat before the game. While he didn’t go into too many specifics, he offered a few hints about where the Sox could turn in the winter.

Breslow pointed to the rotation, bullpen and a desire to balance a lefty-heavy lineup among the areas of focus (link via Sean McAdam of MassLive). That not coincidentally overlaps with the Sox’s impending free agents. Nick Pivetta, Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Danny Jansen and Lucas Sims are all headed to the open market. That’s a pair of right-handed bats, one of their top starters, and multiple high-leverage relievers.

Asked about O’Neill specifically, Breslow said the Sox are “definitely interested in having some of those conversations” about a new deal (relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Boston hit on a buy-low acquisition of the slugger from the Cardinals last offseason. O’Neill leads the team with 31 home runs and sports a .240/.335/.512 slash across 469 plate appearances. He had a trio of brief injured list stints but has been one of the Sox’s best hitters when healthy. O’Neill has been a particularly key piece of maintaining some amount of lineup balance. He has obliterated lefty pitching at a .313/.429/.750 clip in 156 trips to the plate. He’s tied with Aaron Judge for second in MLB (one behind Ketel Marte) with 16 home runs off southpaws.

O’Neill is eligible for a qualifying offer. There’s a good chance the 29-year-old left fielder would accept a one-year offer worth more than $21MM. That’d be a massive jump over this year’s $5.85MM arbitration salary. The Sox may prefer a three- or four-year deal that comes at a more manageable annual rate. O’Neill’s camp will probably look to top the respective $42MM guarantees secured by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jorge Soler last winter.

Even if they retain O’Neill, that’d leave the Sox with the same lefty-leaning lineup they trotted out this year. They’ll need more contributors via some combination of free agency, trade and internal improvement. Vaughn Grissom is one of the higher-upside righty bats already on the roster. Grissom’s first season in Boston was underwhelming, as he battled injuries and struggled for most of the year. (Chris Sale, for whom the young infielder was traded, pitching his way to the NL Cy Young in Atlanta only adds to the disappointment.)

The Sox have split time at second base between Grissom and lefty-hitting Enmanuel Valdez with the season winding down. Breslow was noncommittal on whether the 23-year-old will enter next season as the favorite at second base. “I think he’s absolutely got the potential to do that,” the chief baseball officer said of Grissom being an everyday player (via Speier). “But ultimately it’s going to be the play on the field that dictates who our everyday second base is.”

Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll also draw attention as a shortstop, and Gleyber Torres headline the free agent class at second base. Jonathan India will probably be the subject of trade speculation yet again. It seems unlikely that the Sox would devote a ton of resources to the position. That’d impede Grissom and speedster David Hamilton next season. With top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer potentially on the radar for a 2025 debut, the keystone could be the long-term home for Trevor Story.

The pitching staff is a clearer area for free agent investment. Jansen and Martin have been two of Alex Cora’s top three leverage arms for the past couple seasons. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten will be back in the late innings. Liam Hendriks should be healthy and could compete with Slaten for the closing job. The Sox will probably look for multiple additions to solidify the setup corps in front of that duo. A reunion with Martin wouldn’t be surprising.

A rotation built around Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and hopefully a healthy Lucas Giolito has promise. Richard Fitts has had decent results in his first four MLB starts. Pivetta has absorbed a lot of innings while flashing strikeout stuff over the past few years though. The Sox will need to replace that volume if he walks.

Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty headline the free agent rotation class. Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Luis Severino and old friend Nathan Eovaldi (assuming he declines a $20MM player option with Texas) are among the middle-tier starters who’d more closely mirror last winter’s Giolito pickup.

Marlins Outright Cristian Pache

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The Marlins sent outfielder Cristian Pache outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Miami designated the former top prospect for assignment yesterday with Dane Myers returning from the injured list.

Miami claimed Pache off waivers from the Orioles shortly after the trade deadline. The defensive stalwart appeared in 35 games for the Fish. As has been the case at every MLB spot, he didn’t contribute offensively. Pache hit .183/.234/.283 in 64 plate appearances. He’s now a career .181/.243/.275 hitter in 251 big league contests spanning parts of five seasons.

Pache, 25, haș appeared with five MLB teams over that stretch. One of the headlining pieces in the Matt Olson trade between the Braves and A’s, he has simply never developed at the plate. Pache’s prospect stock was built largely on his perceived floor as an elite defensive center fielder. He has indeed proven a gifted defender — 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 17 Outs Above Average in a little more than 1500 career innings — but his bat has been so light that he’s limited to a fifth outfielder role.

While this was the fourth time in which Pache has been squeezed off a roster, it’s the first time he’s gone unclaimed on waivers. His three-plus years of MLB service give him the right to elect free agency. There’s no indication he’ll do so right now, but that’s immaterial. Pache will qualify for minor league free agency at the end of the season regardless. Unless the Marlins call him back up within the next few days, he’ll hit the market.

Pache will probably be limited to minor league offers at this point. He’s out of options, so if a team were to sign him to a big league deal, they’d need to carry him on the MLB roster or put him back on waivers. His glove and former prospect status should lead to plenty of interest as a non-roster depth player.

Pirates Release Rowdy Tellez, Michael A. Taylor

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September 25: Pittsburgh released Taylor and Tellez, according to the MLB.com transaction log. That’s a formality with both players headed to free agency at season’s end regardless.

September 24: The Pirates announced that they have designated first baseman Rowdy Tellez and outfielder Michael A. Taylor for assignment. Those two active roster spots will go to infielder Liover Peguero and outfielder Joshua Palacios, who have both been recalled from Triple-A Indianapoli. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported about Tellez on X shortly before the official announcement. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 38.

Both Tellez and Taylor were signed to modest one-year deals in the winter as the Bucs tried to supplement their roster. Tellez got a $3.2MM guarantee while Taylor got $4MM. Unfortunately, neither signing worked out well for the Bucs, as both players have struggled this year. With just a handful of games left in the season and the club well out of contention, the Pirates have bumped them off and will presumably give more playing time to younger guys who could perhaps factor into next year’s club.

Tellez, 29, was non-tendered by the Brewers after a poor 2023 season. He hit 13 home runs and slashed .215/.291/.376 for a 78 wRC+. But since he had hit 35 home runs in 2022 with a .219/.306/.461 line and 110 wRC+, it wasn’t totally crazy for the Bucs to expect a bounceback.

In the end, Tellez had an up-and-down season in 2024 that reflected his inconsistent results in prior years. His Pittsburgh tenure started terribly, as he hit .177/.239/.223 through the end of May. He then got scorching hot for three months, hitting .310/.346/.533 from June to August. But he’s gone cold again lately with a .116/.255/.209 performance in September.

Put together, Tellez has a .243/.299/.392 line and 89 wRC+ on the year. He isn’t considered a strong defender and isn’t a burner on the basepaths, so he doesn’t really offer much value if he’s not producing with the bat. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference consider him to have been below replacement level this year. The Bucs will likely spread the first base playing time around to a few different guys for their remaining games but the position should be a target area for them to upgrade this winter.

It’s also possible there’s a financial motivation for moving on from Tellez. Per Ethan Hullihen on X, Tellez would have unlocked a $200K bonus by getting to 425 plate appearances and is currently at 421.

Taylor has always been an excellent defender in center field but with inconsistent offensive results. Last year was perhaps his best showing at the plate, as he hit 21 homers for the Twins, but he still struck out 33.5% of the time. His offense cratered this year, as he struck out 35% of the time and slashed .193/.253/.290 for a wRC+ of 50. Among players with at least 300 plate appearances this year, only Brandon Drury and Eddie Rosario have a lower wRC+ mark. Oneil Cruz, who struggled defensively at shortstop, has been moved to center field lately.

The Bucs will put both players on waivers in the coming days but they are sure to go unclaimed. They won’t be postseason eligible with any claiming team and their recent performance won’t give them any appeal for the remaining games of the regular season. Each player has enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, so they will likely be going into offseason mode a few days ahead of schedule.

Cubs Recall Kevin Alcantara For MLB Debut

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The Cubs recalled top outfield prospect Kevin Alcantara to the active roster this afternoon and optioned infielder Miles Mastrobuoni to the minor leagues in a corresponding move. Alcantara’s first appearance in a game will be his big league debut.

The 22-year-old was first acquired by the Cubs at the trade deadline in 2021 as the headliner going back to Chicago in the deal that sent longtime first baseman Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees alongside right-hander Alexander Vizcaino. Since then, Vizcaino was released by the Cubs after just six games in the organization and is now out of affiliated ball. Fortunately, Alcantara has blossomed with the Cubs into an impressive player on both sides of the ball and even become a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport: the hulking, 6’6” outfielder ranks 60th at ESPN, 69th at MLB.com, and 77th at Baseball America as of each service’s most recent update.

The outfielder has never posted a wRC+ below 123 at any level of the minor leagues since donning a Cubs uniform for the first time, and though he’s not yet hit more than 15 homers or stolen 15 bases in a full season of minor league action to this point in his career scouts have routinely lauded his plus power and speed potential. In 111 games at the Double- and Triple-A levels this year, Alcantara has slashed a solid .278/.353/.428 with 14 homers and 14 steals, including a hot streak in 35 games at Triple-A that’s seen him hit .292/.378/.469 in his first 148 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.

One potential red flag in his profile is his tendency towards swing-and-miss: he’s struck out in 25.1% of his plate appearances at the Double-A level throughout his career, and so far in Triple-A that number has jumped up to 29.1%. It’s a flaw Alcantara will surely need to work on in order to reach his potential as an above-average regular in the majors, though his tools still leave plenty of room for optimism about his ceiling. He’s paired that exciting offensive potential with a strong glove that receives positive marks in center field, though scouts have long noted that his strong arm is more than enough for right field as well should he ultimately move to a corner.

With defensive standout Pete Crow-Armstrong having taken over center on a full-time basis in Chicago, it seems likely that right field would be Alcantara’s long-term defensive home in the majors in the event that he manages to work his way into a regular role with the club in the coming years. That may be easier said than done, however. After all, the club’s outfield mix is currently loaded with talent at the big league level with Crow-Armstrong set to patrol center at Wrigley for the next half decade and both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked into the outfield corners through at least the 2026 season. Cody Bellinger has been the club’s regular right fielder since Crow-Armstrong’s arrival, pushing Suzuki to DH and potentially opening a path for Alcantara to work his way into the outfield mix should Bellinger opt out of his contract and return to free agency this winter.

Bellinger opting out of his deal in Chicago is hardly a guarantee, however, and Michael Busch has seemingly locked down his other position of first base for the foreseeable future. Fellow top outfield prospect Owen Caissie is also at the Triple-A level and could debut as soon as next season, further adding to the logjam of outfield options in Chicago. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Cubs look to leverage their outfield depth in an offseason trade this winter to address other areas of the roster given the relative lack of opportunity available to Alcantara (and, for that matter, Caissie) at the big league level, particularly if Bellinger decides to opt in. Both Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, however, somewhat limiting the club’s options to explore trades in that regard.

Grayson Rodriguez Will Not Return In 2024

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The Orioles are shutting down Grayson Rodriguez for the season, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (X link via Jake Rill of MLB.com). While Rodriguez didn’t have any kind of setback, the team doesn’t feel there’s sufficient time for him to return from the injured list.

Losing the right-hander is a devastating blow for the Orioles rotation with the postseason set to begin next week. It would require a miracle for the Orioles to run down the Yankees for the AL East crown (and accompanying bye through the Wild Card Series) at this point, and failing that the club will have to determine whether to turn to right-hander Dean Kremer or journeyman Albert Suarez to round out the club’s rotation for the series behind Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, while likely using both in the ALDS and beyond should they manage to make a deeper run.

Both hurlers have been solid mid-to-back of the rotation starters for the Orioles this year but aren’t the sort of reliable arms teams prefer to lean on in a playoff series. Kremer has made 24 starts for Baltimore this year to slightly below average results, with a 4.10 ERA (92 ERA+) and 4.32 FIP in 129 2/3 innings of work, while Suarez sports a 3.74 ERA (100 ERA+) and 4.12 FIP in 127 2/3 innings of work split between the bullpen and rotation. Of the pair, Kremer is perhaps the more reliable choice given his stronger results of late (he’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA and 3.55 FIP since the start of August) that compare favorably to Suarez’s ugly 7.23 ERA in four September starts that have seen him surrender a whopping seven homers.

Baltimore’s front office attempted to shore up the rotation in response to injuries suffered by the pitching staff throughout the year at the trade deadline, and while the addition of Eflin to the mix has proved invaluable down the stretch the same cannot be said for their decision to add Trevor Rogers to their rotation mix. The Orioles surrendered well-regarded youngsters Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers in exchange for Rogers’s services back in July, but the lefty made four disastrous starts for the club (7.11 ERA, 5.01 FIP) before being optioned to the minors where he continued to struggle badly down the stretch.

Regardless of how Kremer, Suarez, and other rotation options like Rogers and Cade Povich (5.59 ERA in 15 starts) are deployed by Hyde during the postseason, none of those options seem likely to be as reliable as Rodriguez. In 116 2/3 innings of work before being sidelined by a lat injury back in August, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a stronger 3.66 FIP across 20 starts while striking out a solid 26.5% of opponents in his second season as a member of the Orioles rotation this year. That strikeout rate is good for 23rd in the majors among starters with at least 100 innings of work this year, in line with likely playoff starters for other clubs such as Tanner Bibee of the Guardians and Carlos Rodon of the Yankees.

Fortunately, Hyde’s comments offer little reason to fear for Rodriguez’s ability to return healthy and effective next season. While Burnes is slated to hit free agency this November, Rodriguez figures to be joined by Eflin as the club’s top internal options next year, with ace Kyle Bradish and righty Tyler Wells both potentially in the mix to return to action in the second half of 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery back in June. Even with Rodriguez likely to be healthy entering next season, however, bolstering the rotation figures to be a priority for the Orioles this winter as they look to support their vaunted offensive core. That could mean pursuing a reunion with Burnes, or perhaps signing a second-tier arm expected to be available this winter such as Nathan Eovaldi or Sean Manaea.

Bo Bichette To Undergo Surgery On Fractured Finger

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet) that shortstop Bo Bichette is slated to undergo surgery to repair a displaced fracture in his right middle finger. Bichette was placed on the injured list due to the fracture last week in a move that had already brought his 2024 season to a close, and Schneider indicated that Bichette “should be good to go” come Spring Training in February.

Bichette, 26, endured the worst season of his career this year as he battled injuries and ineffectiveness all year. The two-time All-Star was limited to just 81 games this season due to multiple IL stints caused by calf strains this year, and even when healthy enough to take the field he hit a lackluster .225/.277/.322 (70 wRC+) in 336 trips to the plate. That’s a less than ideal slash line for any regular big leaguer, but it’s especially troublesome for a young star who has never posted a wRC+ below 120 in his major league career prior to this year.

Prior to this year’s injury-marred blip, Bichette has been among the most consistent stars in the league with a career slash line of .299/.340/.487 (127 wRC+) entering the 2024 campaign. That strong pedigree was enough to generate some trade buzz regarding Bichette ahead of this year’s trade deadline as the Blue Jays fell out of the postseason picture, though the club seemed hesitant to deal either him or fellow star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before Bichette’s injury woes ultimately snuffed out whatever possibility for a deal to come together there may have been.

Looking ahead to the offseason, the Blue Jays have generally indicated that they hope to return to contention in 2025, and if truly the club is committed to putting the best possible team on the field for next season it’s hard to imagine that being possible while also dealing either Bichette or Guerrero this winter. Of course, that doesn’t mean a trade of either or even both stars is impossible with one year left before the pair heads to free agency, and it seems likely that this surgery will do little to dissuade interested parties from pursuing the shortstop given that he’s expected to be ready to go by the time Spring Training rolls around.

The Blue Jays also provided an update on the status of center fielder Daulton Varsho today in the aftermath of his previously announced surgery to repair a rotator cuff injury in his shoulder. As noted by Scott Mitchell of SportsCenter, no further damage was discovered in Varsho’s successful rotator cuff surgery today, leading to a standard procedure. That said, Toronto was unwilling to commit to Varsho being ready for Spring Training when his surgery was first announced, and Mitchell indicates even with the procedure completed his readiness for the start of camp is still up in the air.

According to Mitchell, Varsho’s current timeline has him “toeing the line” to be fully ready for this spring even in the event that he avoids any setbacks over the offseason. Still, even a delayed start to Spring Training wouldn’t necessarily stop the outfielder from being back in time to make the club’s Opening Day roster in 2025. The 28-year-old enjoyed a solid season in 2024, slashing a roughly league average .214/.293/.407 (99 wRC+) while also chipping in ten stolen bases and playing superb defense in center field.

Yankees Place Nestor Cortes On Injured List Due To Flexor Strain

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3:16pm: Cortes told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) today that he’ll be shut down for seven to ten days and will likely get a platelet-rich plasma injection in his ailing elbow. Neither Cortes nor Boone ruled out the possibility of the lefty returning at some point in the playoffs if the Yankees can make a deep enough run, but Cortes noted that the results of his MRI are being sent to doctors Neal ElAttrache and Keith Meister for additional opinions.

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic was among those to relay that while Boone told reporters that the club wasn’t ruling out a return for Cortes during the postseason, he shied away from describing the club as “optimistic” about Cortes’s prospects of pitching in the playoffs this year until Cortes’s shutdown period has come to a close and they “really see what we’re dealing with.”

1:30pm: The Yankees announced that Cortes has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a flexor strain in his left elbow. Stroman will start tonight’s game in his place, and Poteet has been recalled from Triple-A to take Cortes’ spot on the roster.

The injury will eliminate Cortes as a consideration for the beginning of the American League Division Series at the very least, though flexor strains are rarely short-term injuries. It’s fair to wonder whether Cortes will be an option for the Yankees at any point in the postseason. Manager Aaron Boone will likely provide more detail when he next meets with the media.

9:25am: The Yankees have punched their ticket to the postseason but are facing a potentially worrisome injury scenario, as lefty Nestor Cortes — who had been slated to start tonight’s game against the Orioles — is undergoing an MRI to evaluate his left elbow, as first reported by Jack Curry of the YES Network.

Assuming that takes him out of consideration to take the mound, the Yanks could go with Marcus Stroman (who recently moved to the ’pen) or call up an arm from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Right-handers Cody Poteet, Yoendrys Gomez and Will Warren are all on the 40-man roster and all fresh. Poteet has pitched the most big league innings of that trio this season (21) and had the most success as well (2.14 ERA). Curry adds that Poteet is headed to the Bronx, suggesting he’ll get the nod, though there’s no official word from the team just yet.

Cortes, 29, has pitched a career-high 174 1/3 innings in the majors this season and been quite effective along the way. He’s started 30 games (also a career-high) and notched a 3.77 earned run average while fanning a solid 22.8% of his opponents against a terrific 5.5% walk rate. Though he’s a pronounced fly-ball pitcher (31.1% grounder rate), Cortes has scaled back on some of the home run troubles that have plagued him in his career; he entered the season having averaged 1.49 round-trippers per nine innings pitched but has scaled that back to a more palatable (but still higher than average) 1.24 mark in 2024.

It’s not clear that Cortes would be a part of the Yankees’ postseason rotation, but he’d certainly play a key role in the bullpen even if the team opted to go with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and one of Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt in the top three spots. (Cole and Rodon are locks, health permitting.) Cortes is no stranger to working in relief. He’s primarily been a starter in recent seasons but has nevertheless seen 37% of his career appearances come in a relief setting.

The Yankees have a pair of veteran left-handed options in the ’pen regardless, with Tim Hill and Tim Mayza both on the roster, but neither can miss bats at the same level as Cortes. Mayza also carries alarming platoon splits, making him more ideal for strict left-on-left matchups. Cortes would also be an obvious option to give manager Aaron Boone some length out of the bullpen in the event of a short start during postseason play.

All of those scenarios are now on hold as the Yankees await word on Cortes’ apparently ailing elbow. Taking a step back to look at the bigger picture for Cortes himself, a serious injury would be about as poorly timed as possible (not that there’s ever a “good” time for a major health setback). He’s headed into his final offseason of arbitration eligibility and due a raise on this year’s $3.95MM salary. An injury that threatens a significant portion of his 2025 season could leave Cortes as a non-tender candidate, given that he’s slated to become a free agent following the 2025 season. And, if there is something at play that impacts his 2025 availability, that’d obviously cut short what should be his platform season in advance of free agency, where he’d stand as a clear candidate for a multi-year deal with good health.

Astros Notes: Bregman, Alvarez, McCormick

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Last week, Astros GM Dana Brown revealed that he hopes to talk about a new contract with third baseman Alex Bregman prior to the franchise third baseman hitting the open market this November. At the time of that interview, Brown indicated that he and Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, had briefly talked regarding Bregman’s future and agreed to wait to begin any sort of contract discussions until “things are over.” Now, Bregman himself has chimed in and expressed a similar desire to put his impending free agency out of mind until the 2024 season has wrapped up.

“I haven’t really thought about it too much, honestly,” Bregman told reporters yesterday when asked about the possibility of leaving Houston, as relayed by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “Just focused on trying to win a game and get this division clinched… Just been really focused on winning.”

Waiting until the end of the postseason (or for the Astros to be eliminated) before engaging in talks regarding Bregman’s future in Houston comes as something of a surprise, particularly given Brown’s long-standing commitment to talking with the third baseman and his representation before he hits free agency. With that being said, it’s not necessarily a shock from the player’s perspective that he would prefer to focus on the upcoming playoff run before turning to contract negotiations.

Generally, it’s extremely rare for players to re-up with their current club this close to free agency, particularly when it comes to stars of Bregman’s caliber. It does happen on occasion, though, as it did when the Mets retained closer Edwin Diaz on a record-breaking contract just days before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. That Bregman is represented by the Boras Corporation, which has generally advised its clients to establish their values on the open market, could be another potential roadblock to a deal coming together before he hits free agency. Of course, it must be noted that Boras clients do sign extensions with their clubs on occasion; Bregman himself did so earlier in his career, and fellow third baseman Matt Chapman inked a long-term extension with the Giants earlier this month despite a return to free agency being just two months away at that point.

While Bregman’s uncertain future looms over the club in the longer term, a much more immediate concern is the status of star slugger Yordan Alvarez with the playoffs just around the corner. Alvarez exited the club’s game on Sunday due to a right knee sprain, but seemed somewhat optimistic after speaking to reporters about the issue yesterday (X video link courtesy of KHOU11’s Luis Ortiz). Alvarez said that while he’s had an easier time walking in the days since his exit, he still has to wait for the inflammation in his knee to go down before he can return to playing. That will leave him out of action for the club’s final series of the season against Guardians, as manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) earlier today.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would have Alvarez take the remainder of the regular season off, given his importance to the club’s hopes of making noise in the postseason. After all, Houston clinched their fourth consecutive AL West title last night with a win over the Mariners, and it is no longer possible for them to catch either the Guardians or the eventual AL East champion in order to earn a bye through the upcoming Wild Card Series. That makes the final few games of the regular season largely meaningless for the club, offering them little incentive to rush Alvarez back and potentially worsen his injury woes.

It’s unclear at this point whether or not Alvarez will be ready to return to action in time for the Wild Card series, but even if he doesn’t it’s possible he’ll be available in later postseason rounds should the Astros continue to advance. His regular season comes to a close with a career-high 147 games under his belt and a typically excellent slash line of .308/.392/.567 with a wRC+ of 167 and 35 homers in 635 trips to the plate.

It’s a similar story for outfielder Chas McCormick, who has been on the injured list due to a fractured right hand for just over two weeks now. As relayed by Kawahara, Espada told reporters that McCormick is “moving in the right direction” and “looking pretty good” despite the fact that he won’t be joining the club for its final regular season games in Cleveland. The 29-year-old has resumed baseball activities, including reps in the batting cage and drills in the outfield, and could still be an option for the Astros in next week’s Wild Card Series. McCormick had a disappointing regular season where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+), but he was putting together something of a hot streak in the days prior to his injury as he went 10 for his last 24 with a double, a homer, and a walk in his final eight games of the regular season.

Nationals’ Rizzo On Offseason Spending, Rotation, CJ Abrams

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Nationals president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Rizzo said recently that his club will be on the lookout for middle-of-the-order bats this offseason, in an effort to supplement a growing young core. The Nats would reportedly “love” a reunion with Juan Soto — unsurprisingly so; who wouldn’t at least be interested? — and the free agent market will have big-name bats ranging from corner infielders Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Christian Walker, to shortstop Willy Adames, to slugging corner outfielders like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.

Multi-year free agent deals of any real magnitude haven’t been a focus for the Nationals throughout the past three years of their rebuild, but Rizzo suggested in his weekly appearance on 106.7 The Fan’s “Sports Junkies” show that a return to the deeper waters of free agency could be possible this winter (Audacy link to the entire 14-minute interview). Asked if ownership “will be open to going out and giving bigger money to guys who are established” (as opposed to the recent run of one-year deals and reclamation-project hitters), Rizzo replied:

“I think if the opportunity arises and the right fit arises, I don’t see any reason they wouldn’t. They’ve done it in the past when there’s players out there that are available that fit what we’re looking for.”

The Lerner family, which owns the Nats, has indeed been willing to spend at top-of-the-market levels in offseasons past. Washington has twice doled out more than $200MM on single free-agent deals: Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract and Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245MM pact. The latter of those two signings, of course, did not pan out. The former stands as one of the best and most successful major free agent signings in history. The Lerners have also given the green light to another pair of nine-figure signings in Patrick Corbin (six years, $140MM) and, way back in 2010, Jayson Werth (seven years, $126MM — a massive contract at the time).

Certainly, the Nationals haven’t spent at the level that will be required to sign Soto this offseason, but Soto figures to command a historic contract. No team has really gone to that length — arguably not even the Dodgers, given the unique and deferral-laden structure of the 10-year contract they gave to Shohei Ohtani last winter. (MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed the possibility of a Nationals pursuit of Soto on this morning’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, which was recorded prior to Rizzo’s comments.)

With regard to the rest of the free agent class, none of Bregman, Alonso, Santander, Hernandez or any of the other big bats in free agency figure to exceed the limits at which the Nationals have spent in the past. That doesn’t ensure that the Nationals will pony up for a top-of-the-market bat, but there’s precedent for them spending at or even in excess of most of those levels. Add in the fact that the only guaranteed contracts on the Nationals’ books beyond the current season are the remaining two seasons of that Strasburg deal and Keibert Ruiz’s eight-year, $50MM extension (spanning the 2023-30 seasons), and there’s room for the Nats to engage with any free agent they deem a fit — Soto included.

Rizzo noted that expenditures to bolster the lineup needn’t only come on the free-agent side of things. He listed both the trade level and the “development level” of player acquisition as well, noting that between the three he expects an “active, interesting winter” for his club. Rizzo stopped short of declaring the team’s rebuild entirely over and proclaiming the 2025 campaign a clear win-now season, but the general tone of his comments Wednesday painted a team on the rise with increased expectations of contending sooner than later.

Much of that has to do with the strides Washington has seen from its collection of in-house starting pitchers, for whom Rizzo effused praise. Right-hander Jake Irvin and lefties MacKenzie Gore and Mitchell Parker will all finish with 30-plus starts and more than 150 innings. Southpaw DJ Herz, called up later in the season, will close out the year with 19 big league starts, in all likelihood.

All four pitchers currently have an ERA between 4.04 and 4.30. Broadly speaking, their earned run averages have ticked up late in the season as their workloads have reached previously uncharted waters. Each is already at least 27 innings past his previous single-season career-high mark. In Irvin’s case, his 183 1/3 innings are 40 more than his previous highwater mark. Some fatigue and growing pains are to be expected. Still, Rizzo made clear that the simultaneous development of that quartet is among the organization’s biggest successes this season and serves as “a great measuring stick going forward.”

Presumably, the Nats hope that top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli, who missed the 2023 season and much of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, can join that group in 2025. It’s a solid-looking collection of arms, although given the general volatility and attrition rate of pitchers, it’s easy to envision Rizzo and his staff considering at least one veteran addition this winter to supplement the group and safeguard against injuries and/or regression. Rizzo didn’t specifically call out rotation support as an area of need, but virtually any team would be reluctant to head into a season with five starters under the age of 28 and with three or fewer years of big league service atop the depth chart.

Rizzo was also naturally asked about the recent demotion of shortstop CJ Abrams, whom the Nationals optioned over the weekend. At the time of the move, the team only indicated that it was for an off-the-field issue. Subsequent reports have suggested that Abrams’ demotion was a disciplinary measure after he stayed out all night at a casino the night before a day game against the Cubs. Rizzo unsurprisingly declined to delve into specifics but confirmed it was an off-field issue and voiced support for Abrams moving forward:

“It was not performance-based. We felt it was in the best interest of the player and the organization to do so. It’s an internal issue that we’re going to keep internal. … It’s not the end of the world for CJ. It’s not the end of the world for the Nationals. It’s something that happens over the course of time, especially with young players. We love CJ. We care for CJ. We’re in constant communication with he and his agent, and we still have a great relationship.”

“…We have a standard here. We’ve had it for a lot of years. When players don’t reach those standards, we have to do what’s in the best interest of the organization. … And when players fail to reach those standards, we have to do something to get them back into the mode of Nationals, and teammate, big leagues. We felt that it was warranted in this case. Like I said, not the end of the world. Not the end of CJ Abrams. Not the end of the Nats.”

Abrams, who’ll turn 24 in a couple weeks, came to the Nationals alongside Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana in the trade sending Soto to the Padres. The former top prospect looked to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout for the first half of the season, slashing .282/.353/.506 through early July. He’s since fallen into a protracted slump, hitting just .191/.254/.321 over his past 236 turns at the plate. (He’d picked up the pace again of late, going 11-for-28 with a pair of homers and three doubles in his past eight games.)

The demotion to the minors won’t cost Abrams in terms of big league service, arbitration trajectory or free agent timeline. He’d already accrued a full year of service in 2024 at the time he was sent down. He’ll finish the year with 2.130 years of service, making him a very likely Super Two player who’ll be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the standard three. The first of those four — assuming he indeed qualifies as a Super Two player — will come this offseason. He’s under club control through the 2028 season.

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