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Nick Nelson Signs With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers

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Right-hander Nick Nelson has signed with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per an announcement from Beverly Hills Sports Council, his agency. It’s a one-year deal worth $1MM plus incentives. Phillies Tailgate reported last week that the two sides were in negotiations.

Nelson, 29, pitched in each of the past five major league seasons but without sustained success. He logged 114 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Phillies, allowing 5.20 earned runs per nine. His 23.1% strikeout rate and 42.6% ground ball rate were both close to average but he gave out walks at a high rate of 12.9%.

As is often the case with players heading overseas, the minor league numbers are a bit more interesting. A starter for most of his minor league career, he worked primarily in relief in 2021. He tossed 52 Triple-A innings that year with a 3.81 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 12.3% walk rate and 53.6% ground ball rate.

In 2022, he was kept in the majors, tossing 68 2/3 innings with a 4.85 ERA. The Phils tried stretching him out in 2023, which didn’t go especially well. He made 20 Triple-A starts but with a 4.35 ERA, 17.7% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 49.3% ground ball rate. A return to a primary relief role in 2024 didn’t immediately get him back on track, as he threw 54 1/3 Triple-A innings this year with a 6.13 ERA, 18% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 41.6% ground ball rate.

Nelson exhausted his final option year in 2024. The Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man twice late in the year, once in August and once in September. He didn’t have a roster spot at season’s end and elected free agency.

Had he stayed in North America for the 2025 season, he likely would have been looking at minor league deals, having to fight for a roster spot. By heading to Japan and joining the Tigers, he locks in a nice payday above the MLB league minimum, which will be $760K next year. If he takes advantage of his new opportunity, he could parlay that into a raise with the Tigers or perhaps attempt a return to North American ball down the line, following the path of guys like Miles Mikolas and Colin Rea.

Twins Have Listened To Trade Offers On Pablo López

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The Twins have listened to trade offers on right-hander Pablo López, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins are likely to move him, but it suggests it’s at least possible.

As recently as the middle of November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea of the Twins subtracting a notable player from their roster via a blockbuster trade. He identified López, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as “key” pieces of the roster that were unlikely to move. “Everyone is always going to ask when you’re a team in the payroll bracket that we are,” Falvey said. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field. They’re going to fuel us hopefully to some of the success we want to have. … I feel really good about those players.”

Despite that public framing, it’s understandable why the front office might at least consider alternative possibilities. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely going to have a payroll around $130MM next year, the same as they had in 2024. RosterResource currently projects them for $142MM in 2025, suggesting they may need to find some cuts.

Guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez have been floated as potential trade candidates who could help the club get down to their preferred level, though neither is likely to have massive trade value. Paddack is going to make $7.5MM next year, the final year on his deal, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest in a while. He had a strong 3.33 earned run average in his 2019 rookie season, but his ERA was closer to 5.00 in the next two seasons. He then missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound in 2024 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.

Vázquez also has just one year left on his deal, with a $10MM salary. He’s a strong defender behind the plate but has hit just .222/.265/.322 over the past two seasons. That production translates to a wRC+ of 63, indicating he was 37% worse than league average.

Trading one or both of those players could help the Twins with their budget crunch but likely wouldn’t bring back massive returns. López, on the other hand, should have lots of appeal. He’s set to make $21.5MM in each of the next three years, leaving $64.5MM remaining on his contract.

That’s a very nice price for a pitcher who is going into his age-29 season and has been one of the better hurlers in baseball over the past five years. From 2020 to the present, he has thrown 719 1/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. FanGraphs has credited him with 14.7 wins above replacement in that time, which puts him 13th out of all pitchers in the majors for that stretch.

The price of starting pitching has been especially strong so far this winter. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM. His numbers have been fairly similar to López in recent years but he’s far older, going into his age-35 season. Pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have had notably worse results than López/Eovaldi but both got three-year deals, Kikuchi getting a $63MM guarantee and Severino $67MM.

It seems fair to conclude that the strong market might lead to the Twins getting some interesting offers that could at least make them reconsider their stance on López. Of course, the same things that make him appealing to other clubs also make him very valuable in Minnesota. The club can certainly hold onto him and trade guys like Paddack and/or Vázquez, but perhaps they will receive an offer for López that allows them to both get their payroll down to the desired level while also adding a notable return that helps the franchise in the short and long term.

As of now, the rotation group consists of López, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Trading López or Paddack would weaken the group but would also open a spot for young pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa, both of whom debuted in 2024. The Twins also have some non-roster options like Huascar Ynoa and Darren McCaughan in the mix.

Subtracting López is surely not what the front office wants and there’s no indication that they are shopping him around. But the hot starting pitching market seems to be making various clubs ponder trades of starting pitchers a bit harder than they expected to. Names like Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Framber Valdez have somewhat surprisingly been in rumors of late. A team being willing to listen doesn’t mean a trade is going to happen, as shown with Valdez and the Astros, as he is now apparently off the table. However, it’s an interesting twist on the offseason, with free agents like Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea still available.

Orioles, Jordyn Adams Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles and outfielder Jordyn Adams are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA client and former top prospect will head to major league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Adams, who turned 25 in October, was selected by the Angels with the No. 17 overall draft pick back in 2018. At the time, he was viewed as one of the best athletes in the entire draft class — a two-sport high school star who’d committed to play both football (as a wide receiver) and baseball at North Carolina. Pre-draft scouting reports touted Adams’ 80-grade speed (on the 20-80 scale) and a projectable frame that carried the potential to grow into more power.

While the speed has been on full display in the minors throughout his career — he’s gone 144-for-176 (82%) in stolen base attempts — Adams has yet to hit much at any stop. He’s a career .252/.333/.377 hitter in 2425 minor league plate appearances and, in 78 big league trips to the plate, mustered only a .176/.205/.216 slash with a 35.9% strikeout rate.

The speed is legitimate, as Statcast ranked him in the 98th percentile of big leaguers with a blazing sprint speed of 29.7 ft/sec. Even as he tumbled down the Angels’ prospect rankings at Baseball America, from No. 3 in 2020 to No. 23 this past season, BA called him a plus defender in center who “tracks fly-balls like a wide receiver” while showing elite closing speed.

In almost every other sense of the word, Adams is a project for the Orioles. However, he’s heading into only his age-25 season. He’s also joining an Orioles organization that has been far more successful than the Angels (and than most of the league, for that matter) when it comes to developing young position players. Adams may not ever be a star, but if the O’s can coax a bit more out of his bat, his speed and defense give him a path to at least being a viable fourth outfielder. Encouragingly, the righty-hitting speedster does have an OPS well north of .800 against lefties over the past three seasons in the minors.

The Opener: Sosa, Rangers, Urshela

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As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Slammin’ Sammy back at Wrigley?

Seven-time All-Star and 1998 NL MVP Sammy Sosa was one of baseball’s biggest stars over a 13-year stretch with the Cubs and is one of the most famous players to come out of the North Side in the past 40 years. You wouldn’t have known all that from taking a trip to Wrigley Field in the 20 years since he left the team following the 2004 season, however, as Sosa has been persona non grata on the North Side ever since he left the team due to his widely suspected use of steroids during his time in Chicago. Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts addressed the schism between his team and one of its biggest stars nearly seven years ago, telling fans and reporters at the 2018 Cubs Convention that “players from that era owe us a little bit of honesty” as noted by Jesse Rogers of ESPN at the time.

Sosa offered that bit of honesty in a statement yesterday (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). Within a lengthier statement regarding his time with the Cubs and love for the fans/organization, Sosa stated: “There were times I did whatever I could to recover from injuries in an effort to keep my strength up to perform over 162 games. I never broke any laws, but in hindsight, I made mistakes and I apologize.”

Following that tacit acknowledgment and subsequent apology, Ricketts released a statement of his own, extending Sosa an invitation to the 2025 Cubs Convention, which takes place next month. Yesterday’s thaw in relations between the Cubs and one of the biggest stars in the club’s history should give longtime fans the opportunity to see Sosa back at Wrigley Field in the future as a guest of honor, just as has been the case for other former Cubs stars ranging from Jon Lester and Aramis Ramirez to Fergie Jenkins and Ryne Sandberg in recent years.

2. Rangers 40-man move incoming:

Yesterday, the Rangers made a move to add to their bullpen by agreeing to terms with southpaw Hoby Milner on a one-year deal. Milner, who posted a 3.44 ERA and 3.14 FIP with the Brewers over the past three seasons, offers Texas a solid relief option from the left side and helps to patch up a relief corps that has lost Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency this winter. Milner’s deal with the Rangers has not yet been made official, however, and before it can be the club will need to make room for the lefty on its 40-man roster.

That can be achieved simply by designating a player for assignment, and that’s how the vast majority of 40-man roster crunches are addressed. That said, teams will occasionally line up a small trade that allows them to free up 40-man space for an impending signing. More clarity on the Rangers’ roster should arrive sooner than later.

3. Urshela to West Sacramento?

The A’s and third baseman Gio Urshela reportedly agreed to a one-year deal yesterday. While the Athletics won’t need to make room for Urshela on their 40-man roster, the financial terms for the deal have not yet been reported. Those terms hold particular weight given the fact that the club needs to significantly ramp up payroll this winter in order to avoid a potential grievance from the MLBPA. They’ve made good headway in that goal by signing Luis Severino and swinging a trade for Jeffrey Springs already this winter, deals which have left them with $88.5MM on their luxury tax ledger according to RosterResource. Urshela’s deal should help push that figure further north, but likely not by much. He played last year on a $1.5MM salary and hit .250/.286/.361 between Detroit and Atlanta.

Where Can The Orioles Turn For A Top-End Starter?

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The Orioles made one necessary rotation upgrade this week, signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a $13MM deal on Monday. That should be the first of multiple starting pitching acquisitions. Sugano projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm at this stage of his career. The O's need for an ace persists.

Baltimore addressed that last winter via trade. The O's acquired one year of control over Corbin Burnes for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall in what was GM Mike Elias' boldest trade to date. Burnes pitched as well as the O's could've expected, turning in a 2.92 ERA across 32 regular season starts to earn a fifth-place finish in Cy Young balloting. He fired eight innings of one-run ball in his lone postseason appearance. Unfortunately, the offense cratered down the stretch and scored a grand total of one run in their two playoff games. The Royals swept them by respective 1-0 and 2-1 margins.

Burnes is a free agent, leaving Elias and his staff on the hunt for another top-end arm. Where could they turn?

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Nationals Sign Michael Soroka

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The Nationals announced that they have signed right-hander Michael Soroka to a one-year deal, which reportedly comes with a $9MM salary. The club had 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move. The ISE Baseball client will reportedly be used as a starter.

Soroka, 27, came into the offseason as one of the more interesting free agents available. He found success as a starting pitcher in his early 20s, back in 2019, but missed most of the 2020 to 2023 seasons due to injuries. In 2024, he struggled badly as a starter but then got moved to a bullpen role and finished the season in very strong fashion. It could have been argued that he earned himself another shot at a rotation job or that he found a role that worked for him and should continue as a reliever, though it seems he will take another shot at being a starter next year.

Prior to his 2019 breakout, Soroka was already a name to watch. He was a first-round pick of Atlanta in 2015 and found himself on top 100 prospect lists as he climbed through the minors. He debuted with five starts in 2018 and then fully cemented himself as a big leaguer in 2019, making 29 starts and logging 174 2/3 innings while allowing 2.68 earned runs per nine. His 20.3% strikeout rate was just below average but his 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate were both notably better than par.

That was Soroka’s age-21 season, so it seemed Atlanta had a rotation building block for years to come. Unfortunately, the baseball gods had a miserable fate in store for Soroka’s next chapter. In his third start of the shortened 2020 season, he had to be helped off the field with a leg injury, later revealed to be a torn right achilles tendon which required surgery. In 2021, he missed some time due to shoulder inflammation and later required another surgery on his achilles. He got back on the mound in 2022 and pitched in the minors, though that season was ended due to elbow soreness. In 2023, he was frequently shuttled between Triple-A and the majors and finished the season on the IL due to forearm inflammation.

After those four years in the injury wilderness, Atlanta seemingly didn’t have much faith in Soroka bouncing back. He was flipped to the White Sox in November, part of a five-for-one trade that saw Atlanta flip multiple spare parts for Aaron Bummer in a roster clearout move.

Unlike Atlanta, Chicago was aggressively rebuilding and had more bandwidth for being patient with Soroka, hoping for a bounceback. It didn’t materialize at first. Soroka started the season with nine starts but had a 6.39 ERA in those. His 46.9% grounder rate was strong but his matching strikeout and walk rates of 12.4% were both bad.

The last of those starts was on May 12. Soroka was moved to the bullpen at that point, which is when things became very interesting. He tossed 36 innings out of the bullpen in the remainder of the season with a 2.75 ERA. His 13% walk rate was oddly high and his grounder rate was just 26.5% but he managed to punch out 39% of batter’s faced.

That came with a significant change in his pitch mix. In those nine starts, he threw 22.5% four-seamers, 30.8% sinkers, 31.9% sliders and 14.7% changeups. After moving to the bullpen, he pushed towards a fastball/slider mix, with 43.2% of his pitches being the former and 41.6% the latter. His sinker and changeup rates dropped to 10.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite limiting his arsenal, he was effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Righties hit just .197/.306/.296 against Soroka the reliever while lefties mustered only a .179/.299/.286 line.

Given the amount of success he had in that relief role, it might be tempting to suggest that he should stay there, but there are also counterarguments. For one thing, despite the many twists and turns in his career, Soroka is still young. He is currently 27 and won’t turn 28 until August. He might not want to give up on the possibility of being a starter just yet.

Furthermore, teams these days don’t tend to view relief success as any kind of reason to not try a guy in a starting role. In recent years, bullpen-to-rotation conversions have become all the rage, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, Jeffrey Springs and others making the move successfully. It doesn’t always work out, with A.J. Puk being one example, but even then the downside is pretty harmless as the pitcher just lands as a viable reliever as a fallback.

The Nats should be able to give Soroka a chance to earn a rotation job, at least for a while. They have some intriguing arms but most of them are fairly lacking in experience. The quartet of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz all had decent results in 2024, with each posting an ERA of 4.41 or lower. However, Gore’s 372 2/3 career innings are the most of the bunch. Irvin is at 308 while Parker and Herz just debuted in 2024 and are below 200. Josiah Gray had UCL surgery in July and won’t be a factor until late in the 2025 season, if at all. Cade Cavalli missed all of 2023 and 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and it’s unknown what kind of workload he can take on next year.

Washington can give Soroka a rotation gig to start the year and see how things go. If he struggles out of the gate, they can push him to the bullpen and give those starts to one of the younger pitchers. But if things go well, he can be very valuable for the Nats. If they are able to emerge from their ongoing rebuild, he can be a part of that, but he could be a midseason trade candidate even if the club isn’t ready for that step yet. Even if he’s pushed to a relief role, he could still be an interesting deadline trade candidate.

It’s also theoretically possible that he pitches his way into consideration for a qualifying offer at season’s end, as even mid-rotation or back-end guys like Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino and Nick Martinez got QOs this year. In that scenario, Soroka could stay with the Nats all year and help them make a contending push while also providing some future value at the end of the year, though that will be a concern for another day.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soroka for a two-year deal worth $14MM. He has settled for a lesser guarantee but on a stronger annual value, with the chance to return to the open market a year from now. For him personally, that could be a lucrative bet, as it’s possible he will have much more earning power at the end of the 2025 season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Nats and Soroka were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that it was a one-year deal worth $9MM.

Rangers Sign Alan Trejo To Minor League Contract

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The Rangers announced the signing of infielder Alan Trejo to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite. Texas also re-signed catcher Cooper Johnson and added reliever Nolan Hoffman as non-roster invitees.

Of that trio, Trejo is the only one with MLB experience. The righty-hitting utilityman has suited up for the Rockies in each of the last four seasons. He has hit .228/.276/.334 across 469 plate appearances in the big leagues. Colorado cut him loose in June. Trejo landed a minor league contract with the Dodgers. He finished the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he hit .265/.346/.408 with six homers across 241 plate appearances.

Trejo isn’t going to provide much offensive upside. He can play anywhere on the infield, though, with solid grades for his second base defense in particular. He should open next season at Triple-A Round Rock. Trejo is out of options, so the Rangers would need to keep him on the MLB roster or run him through waivers if they call him up at any point.

Johnson is a 26-year-old catcher who played this year with Texas’ Double-A affiliate. The Ole Miss product hit .235/.355/.474 with 14 home runs in the Texas League. Hoffman, a 27-year-old righty, has pitched in the Seattle and Baltimore systems. He spent the ’24 campaign in Triple-A with the Orioles. Hoffman pitched to a 3.88 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents across 58 innings.

Latest On Josh Naylor

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10:36pm: Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that while the Mariners and Guardians have indeed discussed Naylor, it’s not expected that Cleveland will deal him to Seattle after offloading the Gimenez contract. That aligns with Lloyd’s earlier reporting that Cleveland seemed increasingly likely to hold Naylor.

1:26pm: As the Mariners search for first base upgrades this winter, they’ve had some talks with the Guardians about Josh Naylor, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There’s no indication the two parties are in any sort of advanced negotiations, but the fit is a natural one for an M’s club looking to improve its offense and a Guardians squad that has been open to offers on Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas as they enter their final seasons of club control.

Naylor, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season before reaching free agency next winter. He’s fresh off a career-high 31 homers and a .243/.320/.456 batting line (118 wRC+) with a 9.2% walk rate and just a 16.6% strikeout rate. The Mariners have been vocal over the past year-plus about wanting to scale back on their teamwide strikeout rate. Adding power and simultaneously reducing strikeout rate are often at odds with one another, but Naylor is the type of bat who can help them achieve both goals simultaneously.

A trade of Naylor for a Cleveland club that just re-signed Shane Bieber and is clearly intent on contending in 2025 might seem counterproductive at first glance, but the perennial tightrope walk of trading quality veterans for young talent while still trying to field a winning club is nothing new for the Guards. They just unloaded Andres Gimenez and his contract in what amounted to a three-team trade bringing hard-throwing righty Luis Ortiz to Cleveland from Pittsburgh. That dropped their expected payroll to around $97MM, per RosterResource. Shedding Naylor would scale that back to $85MM while opening time for Kyle Manzardo at first base (and perhaps creating more room for some smaller-scale free agent additions).

At the same time, it should be noted that a trade of Naylor isn’t a foregone conclusion. The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd wrote recently that he’d gotten the sense a trade of the slugging first baseman was becoming less likely, as the Guards weren’t impressed with anything offered up by other clubs. (A single text or phone call can change that, of course.) Understandably, Cleveland isn’t going to move a player of Naylor’s ability just to shed payroll; they’d need to feel they’re getting legitimate value in return — especially since with a season comparable to his 2022-24 showings, a then-28-year-old Naylor will be a qualifying offer candidate next offseason.

For the Mariners, Naylor would provide a boost to a club that saw Justin Turner reach free agency at season’s end. Turner was the club’s primary first baseman down the stretch last year after a deadline trade bringing him to Seattle. The M’s have Luke Raley as an option at first base, but he could also mix into the outfield and at designated hitter. Prospect Tyler Locklear is ready for a big league look, but a postseason hopeful like the Mariners might not want to just hand first base to an unproven 24-year-old who posted league-average numbers in Triple-A last season and slashed .156/.224/.311 with a 41% strikeout rate in his first 49 MLB plate appearances.

The M’s also have interest in bringing either Turner or veteran Carlos Santana back to Seattle. (Santana played with the M’s in 2023.) The team’s top priority at the moment seems to be upgrading at first base, then adding help at either third or second base — likely the former. In-house options like Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss and (eventually) top prospect Cole Young could factor in at second base if the end result is upgrading at both corners.

Naylor’s projected salary likely fits within the Mariners’ reported budget — about $15MM to spend, give or take, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times — but probably doesn’t leave room for another notable addition. The Mariners would surely love to find a way to unload the contracts of Mitch Haniger $15.5MM in 2025) and/or Mitch Garver ($12.5MM in 2025), but either would be a tall task. The presence of those cumbersome contracts, coupled with a second offseason headlined by a tight budget from ownership, make another round of trades from the ever-active Seattle front office likelier than a series of free-agent splashes aimed at once again revamping an offense that has struggled to produce in a highly pitcher-friendly setting.

Notifications Fixed For Trade Rumors Android App

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As you may know, we have a free Trade Rumors app for both iOS and Android.  The app allows you to set up custom feeds and notifications for any combination of sports, teams, and players across MLB Trade Rumors, Hoops Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors.

Just to be clear, the app is something you download from Apple or Google’s app store and it puts an icon on your phone, similar to how you might have the Uber or Instagram apps on your phone.  But we also have a good mobile website, for the many people who simply type mlbtraderumors.com into their phone’s browser (such as Safari).  The mobile website is easier for our developers to update, which is why it has steadily progressed over the last ten years.

Anyway, back to the apps.  A few months ago, notifications somehow broke on the Android app.  Today, we put out an update that fixes that.  If you’re an Android app user, please download that update from the Google Play store.  I want to give a shoutout to Dan B. and the many other Android power users who have written in about this issue and responded to my emails to verify notifications are now working!

Aside from the notifications, the app allows for easy scrolling and swiping between articles.  You can create a multi-sport experience tailored to your specific interests, or you can limit your app entirely to one sport by removing the others.

Seeing as how we initially released this app a decade ago, it’s time for a revamp.  A lot of that has to do with the coding and is beyond my understanding.  We’ll also spruce up the graphics and make other improvements.

Our developers are in the process of putting together a quote for this project, and all I can say for a projected timeline is that we expect it to be finished in 2025.

It’s been ten years since we came up with the basics of this app.  If you’ve used it and have ideas that you’d like to see implemented, they’re welcome in the comments!

Jurickson Profar Reportedly Seeking Three-Year Deal

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With Juan Soto signed and both Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger traded, some of the top outfielders still available this offseason include Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Jurickson Profar. Per recent reporting, Santander is looking for a five-year deal and Hernandez is looking for three. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports today that Profar is “looking for a deal in the three-year-plus range.”

Those asks are roughly in line with preseason expectations. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents post, Santander was predicted for $80MM over four years, Hernández for $60MM over three, and Profar $45MM over three.

The three players have some similarities. Each is considered a subpar defender in an outfield corner. None is particularly threatening on the basepaths. Hernández does have 83rd percentile sprint speed but has never swiped more than 12 bags in a season and might not top that now that he’s 32 years old.

But all three are above average hitters. Profar is actually coming off the strongest 2024 season of the three, but he’s been far less consistent in his career. His 2023 season was so poor that he settled for a $1MM guarantee from the Padres last offseason.

That turned into a remarkable bargain for the Friars. Profar has always had good plate discipline and that didn’t change this year, as his 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were each a few ticks better than average. But when he made contact, he did more damage than ever before. His 24 home runs and 158 hits were both career highs. His .302 batting average on balls in play was the best of his career, but so was the quality of his contact. His average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour was a few ticks above his previous best of 87.5 mph. His 44.4% hard hit rate was far higher than his previous personal best of 34.3%.

The overall result was a .280/.380/.459 batting line and a 139 wRC+, indicating he was 39% better than league average. Hernández and Santander had a 134 and 129 wRC+ this year, respectively. Profar’s defense wasn’t graded strongly but he did add ten steals this year, tying a career high. Overall, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season, with Hernandez at 3.5 fWAR and Santander at 3.3.

But as mentioned, consistency has not been Profar’s forte, something that MLBTR has covered previously. His offense has seesawed between below and above average in alternating years, dating back almost a decade now. Starting from 2017 and going to the present, his wRC+ numbers have been 36, 107, 90, 113, 87, 110, 78 and 139. Hernández had a dip with Seattle in 2023 but has otherwise been in the 130-145 range from 2020 to the present. Santander has been between 119 and 129 in three straight seasons now.

There’s some risk in taking a three-year bet on Profar, hence the lower predicted contract. But if the Statcast data points to any kind of real change in approach and the contracts end up roughly in the predicted areas, then he has a chance at being the best investment of the three.

Profar’s market has been relatively quiet thus far. He and the Padres each desire a reunion but he hasn’t been connected to any other clubs. The mutual interest between him and the Friars isn’t surprising. San Diego’s president of baseball operations A.J. Preller clearly has an affinity for Profar. Preller was working for the Rangers when that club signed Profar as an amateur and has since signed Profar to the Padres many times. After Profar had an unsuccessful sojourn with the Rockies, he spoke openly of how happy he was to eventually return to San Diego.

However, the financial situation might stand in the way of another reunion. RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of $210MM next year, well beyond their 2024 payroll of $169MM. It’s been reported that they need to get trim that projection down, probably closer to their 2024 number. That’s led to rumors of players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arráez and others being available in trades, so signing Profar to a notable three-year deal is hard to see at the moment.

Teams like the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees have been connected to Hernández and Santander this winter and it stands to reason that they would have at least some interest in Profar as well. The Astros, Reds, Pirates, Royals and other clubs are logical fits for corner outfield help.

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