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The Opener: ALCS, NLCS, A’s

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As the playoffs continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. ALCS heads to Cleveland:

The Guardians are headed back home to Cleveland today having dropped the first two games of the ALCS to the Yankees in the Bronx. As they look to stop the bleeding in front of their home crowd, the club will turn to lefty Matthew Boyd (2.72 ERA in 8 starts). The veteran southpaw has not yet appeared in the ALCS but drew two starts during the ALDS against Detroit. Those two starts went quite well, as Boyd struck out ten Tigers in 6 2/3 scoreless frames. Now, Boyd figures to square off against Yankees youngster Clarke Schmidt (2.85 ERA in 16 starts) this evening. Schmidt’s lone ALDS start saw him surrender two runs in 4 2/3 innings of work with four strikeouts. Today’s game is scheduled to begin at 5:08pm local time.

2. Mets facing deficit in NLCS:

The Mets suffered an ugly 8-0 loss at the hands of the Dodgers last night as the L.A. pitching staff stymied their offense, allowing just four hits. While Luis Severino managed to handle the Dodgers’ offense decently in 4 2/3 innings of work that saw only two unearned runs cross the plate, the L.A. bats came to life late in the game against the bullpen and torched Mets relievers Reed Garrett and Tylor Megill for six runs.

As the Mets try to avoid dropping back-to-back games, they’ll turn to veteran southpaw Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA in 31 starts). Quintana has been excellent for the Mets so far this postseason, pitching 11 scoreless frames and striking out 11 across two starts split between the NLDS and the NL Wild Card series. His opponent tonight will be Dodgers star Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA in 16 starts), who arrived in the majors to much fanfare earlier this year. Yamamoto’s first taste of postseason action in the big leagues has been a mixed bag so far, as he was rocked for five runs over three innings by the Padres in his first postseason start but settled in to post five scoreless frames in a decisive Game 5 against San Diego later in the series. Tonight’s game is slated to start at 8:08pm local time in Queens.

3. A’s ballpark agreements in Las Vegas moving forward:

The A’s no longer hail from Oakland after playing their last game at the Coliseum last month, and with the Oakland chapter of the club’s history now officially closed, things are moving along toward the construction of the club’s planned ballpark in Las Vegas. As detailed by Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the Las Vegas Stadium Authority is scheduled to meet today with a review of updated agreements regarding development and leasing of the stadium as well as relocation stipulations between the city and the A’s among the items on the agenda.

The agreements lay out a framework for a number of subjects, including how many out-of-market home games the Athletics are allowed to play each year and what situations could allow the A’s to relocate out of Las Vegas in the future should they so desire. Per Akers, those agreements will then be put to a vote on December 5, with approval of each of the agreements standing as a necessary step in order for the A’s to unlock public funding for their new stadium. In addition to getting approval on these agreements, the Athletics will also need to present a plan for financing their own portion of the stadium expenses before that aforementioned public funding becomes available.

Jerry Reinsdorf Reportedly Discussing Sale Of White Sox

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White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is open to selling the club and is in “active discussions” with a group led by Dave Stewart, reports Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic. It’s unclear how possible a sale is or how much progress the talks have made, but it would be a seismic shift for the franchise if it comes to fruition.

Reinsdorf, now 88 years old, is one of the more controversial owners in the sport. He bought the club in 1981 for about $20MM and has since developed a reputation for being on the meddlesome side, leading to reports of tumult from within the organization. Reinsdorf only owns an estimated 19% stake in the club, according to Forbes, but is nonetheless the principal owner of the club.

The club has had some success during his tenure as owner, including winning the 2005 World Series, but the Sox are at a very low ebb right now. They didn’t make the playoffs from 2009 to 2019, finishing below .500 during the majority of that stretch. A new core seemed to emerge and helped them make the postseason in 2020 and 2021, but that quickly proved to be unsustainable. They dropped to .500 in 2022 and lost 101 games last year before things got even worse in 2024. They lost 121 games this year, setting a new record for losses in the modern era.

Amid that downward slide, plenty of changes have taken place. In August of 2023, president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn were fired after many years with the club. However, that shakeup was followed by the club promoting Chris Getz to general manager from within, seemingly not undertaking an extensive search for external candidates. Manager Pedro Grifol and some coaches were fired in August of 2024. Grady Sizemore took over as interim manager and it’s not yet clear who will be the club’s bench boss for 2025.

Those changes were arguable merited, but as the Sox were nearing their dishonorable place in history this year, Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal put the franchise under the microscope in a lengthy piece for The Athletic last month. In it, various sources traced the club’s misfortunes to Reinsdorf. His slow embrace of analytics, his refusal to invest in amenities or player payroll and his insular loyalty were among the various complaints cited in the piece.

While many of the club’s fans have been clamoring for Reinsdorf to sell the club, it’s possible their wish is being granted in monkey-paw fashion, given who the buyer could be. Stewart is well-known in the baseball world for his playing career and also his post-playing ventures as a coach, executive, agent and stint as general manager of the Diamondbacks. In recent years, he has been involved with a group that has been trying to get an MLB franchise in Nashville, Tennessee. Stewart parted ways with Music City Baseball/the Nashville Stars but told Paul Skrbina of the Nashville Tennessean in May that he still had designs on getting a team to Nashville someday. Per today’s report from Ghiroli, he is now part of a group called Smoke34, a reference to his nickname and jersey number from his playing days. Ghiroli also mentions that Stewart and partner Lonnie Murray are trying to bring a National Women’s Soccer League team to Nashville.

Back in August of 2023, Greg Hinz of Crain’s Chicago Business reported that the Sox were exploring relocating within Chicago but that moving to Nashville was also under consideration. “Ever since the article came out, I’ve been reading about I’ve been threatening to move to Nashville,” Reinsdorf said in response, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “That article didn’t come from me. But if we have six years left, we’ve got to decide what’s the future going to be? We’ll get to it, but I never threatened to move out. We haven’t even begun to have discussions with the Sports Authority, which we’ll have to do soon.” In December, multiple sources (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times) reported that Reinsdorf met with Nashville mayor Freddie O’Connell.

There are still plenty of unknowns with this story and the next steps will require more details to come out. The talks between Reinsdorf and Stewart could in early/exploratory stages or they could be further along. It’s also possible that Stewart’s group is just one of several that Reinsdorf has spoken with or will eventually speak with. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that Reinsdorf is using the threat of relocation to help get a new stadium built in Chicago. As covered previously at MLBTR, the Sox have discussed plans about a new stadium in Chicago’s South Loop on a parcel of land known as “The 78.” It’s not uncommon for owners of sports franchises to dangle the threat of relocation in an attempt to extract public money for real estate investments. The Sox, who have a lease at Guaranteed Rate Field through 2029, were reportedly looking to get a billion dollars in public money for their new stadium as of February.

Exploring a sale of the club also doesn’t mean it will ultimately come to pass. In recent years, teams like the Nationals and Angels announced plans to explore the possibility of selling, only to later pull back from those declarations. This situation appears to be somewhat different, in that some discussions have already taken place. Though as mentioned, it’s unclear how extensive those talks have been.

This is the second report this month of a club considering a sale. The Twins, divisional rival of the White Sox, are also on the block. The Pohlad family announced last week that they will explore the possibility of a sale. Reinsdorf is the second-longest active owner in Major League Baseball, trailing only the Steinbrenner family, who have owned the Yankees since 1973.

The David Bednar Question

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David Bednar has been the subject of trade speculation for the past few seasons. For the most part, that was a testament to his effectiveness. Bednar broke out as a leverage reliever with 60 2/3 innings of 2.23 ERA ball during his first season with the Pirates in 2021. He carried that into the ninth inning. Between 2022-23, the big righty combined for a 2.27 ERA while striking out more than 30% of batters faced over 111 appearances. He locked down 58 games, including an NL-leading 39 saves in 2023.

That production came on rebuilding teams. Pittsburgh was nowhere close to the postseason. Other teams no doubt tried to pry Bednar away, but the Bucs never seemed interested in moving him. He’s a Pittsburgh native who looked like a lockdown late-game weapon. The Bucs control him through 2026 and surely envisioned fielding a playoff team before then.

Bednar could resurface as a trade candidate in the coming weeks but under much different circumstances. He’s coming off by far the worst season of his career. The question now is not whether the Pirates should sell high on an affordable, breakout closer. It’s whether to move on in a cost-saving measure at a time when his trade value has hit a low ebb.

Even with the understanding that reliever performance can be volatile, Bednar’s 2024 season is confounding. After rattling off consecutive sub-3.00 performances in his first three full seasons, he allowed 5.77 earned runs per nine this year. That’s not a reflection of poor batted ball results that could be dismissed as luck. Bednar’s peripherals tanked across the board.

His strikeout rate had landed between 28% and 33% in each of his first three years. That fell to 22.1% this past season, slightly below the league average for relievers. Bednar’s walk percentage jumped from the 7-8% range to nearly 11%. He allowed more home runs (nine) in 57 2/3 innings this year than he’d given up (seven) across 119 frames in the previous two seasons combined. Bednar lost a lot of whiffs on both his four-seam fastball and curveball compared to prior seasons. Opponents teed off on the heater, in particular, hitting .256 and connecting on six longballs.

Bednar started the season terribly, allowing 14 runs in 10 innings through the end of May. He managed much better results over the next two months, albeit without the level of swing-and-miss to which he’d been accustomed. Bednar missed a couple weeks leading into the All-Star Break with an oblique strain. The wheels came completely off coming out of the Break, as he gave up 16 runs over his next 14 2/3 frames.

The Pirates, who had plummeted from contention, pulled Bednar from the ninth inning at the end of August. By that point in the year, the focus was on getting him right going into the offseason. Bednar’s run prevention in September was better, as he allowed a manageable five runs (four earned) over 10 2/3 frames. Yet he walked another 10 hitters with nine strikeouts in mostly low-leverage spots. It wasn’t a resounding finish.

It’d be easier to explain the dip in performance if Bednar’s velocity had tanked coming back from the oblique strain. That’s not the case. His fastball averaged north of 97 MPH from the start of May onward. His 97.2 MPH average heater for the season was the highest of his career. Bednar didn’t lose any life on his splitter or curveball. His stuff hasn’t dramatically deteriorated. His results never consistently turned the corner, though.

That leaves GM Ben Cherington and his front office in a difficult spot. Bednar’s early-career dominance earned him a solid $4.51MM salary during his first run through arbitration. He’ll be due a raise even on the heels of a down year. Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate as a player accrues service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bednar for a $6.6MM sum if tendered a contract for 2025. That’s the highest figure in Pittsburgh’s arbitration class and would make him the fourth-highest paid player on the roster as things stand.

A $6.6MM salary would be a bargain if Bednar pitched at anywhere near the level he showed from 2021-23. It’s clearly not the kind of money the Pirates (or any team) would want to devote for his ’24 results. The Pittsburgh front office annually works with a tight budget from ownership. That didn’t stop the Pirates from committing a $10.5MM salary to Aroldis Chapman last offseason, suggesting they’re willing to take some chances on talented but volatile relief pitching.

They’ll weigh the risk on Bednar alongside the need for multiple additions to a well below-average offense. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great bullpen, though someone like Colin Holderman or waiver find Dennis Santana could get a closing opportunity if the Pirates dealt the two-time All-Star.

It’s unlikely the Bucs would non-tender Bednar. He should be too talented to give up without getting anything in return. A sell-low trade is plausible. There are presumably teams that have more budgetary flexibility than the Pirates possess that would be happy to gamble something like $6.6MM on a return to form. That’d be a tough pill for a Pittsburgh front office that has surely declined much better offers over the years than the ones that’ll be on the table this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL East Notes: Cortes, Rizzo, Fulmer, Morel

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Nestor Cortes was set to throw what he described as a hybrid bullpen session today, telling the New York Post’s Greg Joyce (X link) and other reporters that the session would consist of 10-15 pitches each in a normal bullpen and then 10-15 pitches to hitters.  It is Cortes’ latest step in his recovery from a flexor strain that has kept him out of action since September 18, and therefore kept him from participating in the Yankees’ playoff run.  With no setbacks to date, Cortes aims to face live batters again this weekend, and is looking to be well enough to be activated for the World Series roster should New York advance to the Fall Classic.

Cortes can hope that his potential return goes as smoothly as Anthony Rizzo’s activation from the injured list, as Rizzo is thus far 3-for-7 with a walk over the first two games of the ALCS.  Rizzo suffered two fractured fingers on his right hand after he was hit by a Ryan Borucki pitch on September 28, and he missed the last couple of regular-season games as well as the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Royals.  Manager Aaron Boone told Joyce and company that Rizzo is still receiving near-constant treatment from the club’s medical staff in order to stay on the field.

More from around the AL East…

  • It was almost exactly one year ago that Michael Fulmer underwent a UCL revision surgery, which ended the right-hander’s 2024 season before it even began.  After a year of rehab, however, Fulmer told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link) that he is back to throwing off a mound and “is trending well for” the start of Spring Training.  Despite the injury, Fulmer still landed a contract last offseason, as the Red Sox signed him to a two-year minor league contract with the knowledge that the 2024 campaign would be a wash.  Fulmer’s turn towards relief pitching in 2021 yielded pretty positive results over the 2021-23 seasons, and if he finally get healthy during what has been an injury-plagued career, Fulmer is an intriguing no-risk flier for the Sox heading into next season.
  • Christopher Morel had long been a Rays trade target before the club finally landed him in the four-player deadline deal that sent Isaac Paredes to the Cubs.  However, Morel’s first two months in a Tampa uniform were a struggle, as he hit only .191/.258/.289 over 190 plate appearances.  “There were signs underneath he was really unlucky in terms of the balls hit in play,” Rays president of baseball ops Erik Neander told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, in a nod to Morel’s .233 BABIP for the season.  Neander is still bullish on Morel’s potential for 2025 and beyond, and felt that the Rays’ decision to move him to second base and left field (after he’d played third base with the Cubs all season) maybe also “took a toll on him offensively.”  Even the trade itself might’ve been a factor, as Neader noted “that new environment, that first taste of it, if you don’t get off to a great start or hold it, it can be difficult.  It’s a hard thing to recover.  Sometimes it takes that first offseason to come in and be familiar with that environment, to really be yourself again.”  There is plenty of time for the Rays to figure out a player who is under team control through the 2028 season, and who has shown flashes of his power potential over his three MLB seasons to date.
  • In other AL East news from earlier today….Topkin had a big update on the state of Tropicana Field in the wake of Hurricane Milton, Masataka Yoshida underwent shoulder surgery, and MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series delivered entries on the Blue Jays and Orioles.

Latest On Tropicana Field

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Tropicana Field was damaged by Hurricane Milton last week, most notably with the majority of the roof being torn off. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, there’s still a lot of uncertainty around the full nature of the damage and what comes next, but it seems unlikely the Trop will be ready to host games by Opening Day of 2025.

The Rays are scheduled to be at home to start the next season, hosting the Rockies and then the Pirates for a six-game homestand that is supposed to start on March 27. But it seems there’s a decent chance the Trop won’t be playable by then. The facility doesn’t have any drainage, which means the lack of a roof is a significant problem until a solution is found. That’s on top of other potential damage that is still being assessed, laid out by Topkin in his piece.

The Rays had planned to build a new stadium adjacent to the Trop’s current location, with the hope being that it would be ready by 2028. It’s currently unclear if that timeline will be impacted by the hurricane damage. Even if that ends up being delayed, the club may have to make some tough decisions about the Trop, since it was planned for demolition to make room for the new stadium.

From a financial point of view, the club won’t want to devote significant resources into a facility that is on its last legs, which is perhaps why they are in this situation in the first place. Last week, Sam Blum of The Athletic spoke to David Campbell of Geiger Engineers, the group that installed the Trop’s roof back in 1990. He said the roof came with a timeline of roughly 25 years, meaning it probably should have been replaced a few years ago. But Campbell suggests that the plans for the new stadium probably pushed the club to forego the cost, which left the aging roof more vulnerable to the damage it ultimately sustained.

Campbell estimated that the roof could be fixed in five to six months “if the primary structure is serviceable.” That roughly lines up with the time until Opening Day 2025 but it’s possible that further inspection could find more damage and push that estimate, which is why the odds seem to be against the Trop being viable by March.

The Rays will now need to have some discussions about next steps and it seems there’s a wide range outcomes. “The Rays have to get a sense on whether they are looking for a temporary home for a few months, for a full season or for all three years,” Topkin writes. “Plus, Major League Baseball will have a say, and the players union is sure to be involved.”

Topkin goes on to mention a number of possible backup plans, which are all imperfect in various ways. A nearby minor league stadium would be convenient in some ways, as the location wouldn’t be drastically different, but each would likely require investment of some kind to get it closer to major league standards.

The minor league stadiums also don’t have roofs, which means frequent weather delays and postponements could become an ongoing problem. That’s on top of the logistical hurdles of sharing with the team that normally plays its home games there or moving that club elsewhere. Each venue would also come with concerns in terms of capacity, amenities, accessibility and so on.

There are also more extreme suggestions put forth, such as playing in a city like Durham or Charlotte, North Carolina; Nashville, Tennessee; Montreal, Quebec; or even San Juan, Puerto Rico. Those all seem to be speculative on the part of Topkin but perhaps those situations will get more serious consideration going forward. If such an extreme scenario does come to pass, it will make for an odd alignment with the Athletics. The A’s are planning to move to Las Vegas but their stadium is also not planned to open until 2028. Their lease in Oakland ran out and a new deal wasn’t reached, so the A’s are planning to play in Sacramento until then, in the Triple-A park of the Giants’ affiliate. It seems there’s at least some chance that two clubs are nomadic for the 2025-27 seasons, which would be an odd and unwelcome development for the league.

The full extent of the damage and related costs are still being worked out, which is why there is still a wide range of outcomes here, but it will be a notable storyline to follow in the coming weeks and months.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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Quick postseason exits in 2022 and 2023 left the Blue Jays wondering last winter if their core roster was good enough to compete for a World Series.  Heading into this offseason, the question is now if the Jays' core can even still contend at all, after the team cratered to a 74-88 record.  In what could potentially be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last season in Toronto, the Jays are under enormous pressure to turn things around.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Commitments

2025 financial commitments: $117.72MM
Total future commitments: $246.22MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

After a comparatively average 2023 season, Guerrero responded with a huge year that re-established him as one of baseball's top hitters.  Daulton Varsho also improved to roughly league-average offense, and continued his exceptional glovework in Toronto's outfield.  Alejandro Kirk has quietly become something of the catching equivalent of Varsho, as a standout defender whose bat leaves something to be desired.  Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt were more good than great this season but they bring a lot of durability and general effectiveness to the rotation.  They'll be joined in next year's staff by Bowden Francis, whose sudden emergence in the second half made him like a budding ace, let alone simply worthy of a starting role.

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Luis Arraez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Luis Arraez had surgery today to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The three-time All-Star announced the news himself on X, while Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase added that the Padres expect to have him back at full health in time for spring training.

Arraez had been playing through the pain since mid-June, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a slide into third base. He sat out the All-Star Game to rest the injured digit but otherwise played in 70 of the Padres’ final 78 games and all seven of their postseason contests. However, he knew surgery would be necessary if he was going to make a proper recovery, and once the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs, he went under the knife.

With an NL-best .314 batting average, Arraez claimed his third consecutive batting title this season, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as they’ve been in the recent past. After putting up an .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022 to ’23, Arraez produced a .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ in 2024. Those are still above-average numbers, but that level of offense isn’t great coming from a poor defensive first baseman/terrible defensive second baseman. And unfortunately, Arraez can’t blame all of his struggles on his thumb; he hit .310 with a 106 wRC+ before the injury and .319 with a 113 wRC+ after. At the same time, that’s not to say the torn ligament didn’t have any effect. His Statcast expected wOBA on contact fell from .335 before the injury to .312 afterward. It’s possible the pain from the injury prevented him from hitting the ball quite as hard.

Despite his down year, Arraez should be one of the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players next season, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in 2025. It’s his final year of team control, so he’ll look to get back to full strength and perform more like his 2022-23 self, either to earn a bigger contract in free agency or an extension from San Diego. The Padres will hope for the same, since the best version of Arraez can be an excellent table-setter atop the lineup in front of hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill.

More On Giants’ General Manager Search

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Earlier this month, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote about three potential candidates for the Giants’ open general manager position: Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens, Giants assistant GM Jeremy Shelley, and former Giants GM Bobby Evans. However, she also noted that the search was just beginning and was likely to go well beyond those three initial names. Indeed, the list is already growing. On Tuesday, Slusser reported that the team “appears to have targeted” De Jon Watson, formerly the director of player development for the Nationals and currently a special adviser for the Astros. She also names Logan White, a long-time special advisor in the Padres front office and formerly a long-tenured executive with the Dodgers, as a candidate for the position and adds that Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp is also “on the Giants’ radar.”

Additionally, Slusser emphasized that Evans isn’t necessarily a candidate to reclaim his job as the Giants GM, a role he held for four seasons from 2015-18. It’s not yet clear what type of front office job the team is considering him for; it could be more of an advisory role than an official position. Similarly, she mentions that Evans’s predecessor, three-time World Series winner Brian Sabean, would be “welcomed back” to the club in an advisory capacity. It’s unclear, however, if Sabean has expressed any interest in leaving his current advisory position with the Yankees to return to the Bay Area.

Just as interesting as the growing list of potential front office hires are the notable names to whom the Giants have not yet reached out. Slusser reports that the team has not been in contact with former Twins GM Thad Levine or former Marlins GM Kim Ng. Despite president of baseball operations Buster Posey’s limited front office experience, the Giants aren’t necessarily interested in hiring a veteran GM to work alongside him. Instead, Posey suggests they could look to hire someone with a strong scouting background, and Slusser adds the GM will most likely take on more of a “public-facing” role while Posey oversees transactions and hirings.

There’s good reason to believe neither Levine nor Ng would have much interest in taking on that type of role. Ng turned down her side of a mutual option with the Marlins last offseason because she didn’t want to work as the second-in-command under a newly hired POBO. Levine’s reasons for leaving the Twins aren’t quite as clear, though it’s easy to imagine he’d like a chance to be a team’s chief baseball decision-maker after working under Derek Falvey for eight seasons. Without reading too much into a playful comparison, it might have been telling when Levine likened his role with the Twins to Mary Poppins “singing in the background.” Perhaps he’d like a chance to sing center stage, and it doesn’t seem like he’d get that opportunity in San Francisco.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles got off to a strong start in 2024 but were only two games above .500 over their final 100 contests. They still finished with 91 wins, third-most in the American League, but their season ended in disappointment. For the second year in a row, the Orioles were swept out of the postseason in short order. General manager Mike Elias seems confident he’ll have more payroll flexibility this winter, but he’ll also be tasked with replacing (or re-signing) two of the 2024 team’s most valuable contributors.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $1MM buyout owed on $13MM club option for 2025

Total 2025 commitments: $22MM
Total future commitments: $22MM

Option Decisions

  • Eloy Jiménez, DH: $16.5MM club option for 2025 with $3MM buyout (White Sox will pay $1.5MM toward buyout)
  • Seranthony Domínguez, RHP: $8MM club option for 2025 with $500K buyout
  • Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: $8MM club option for 2025
  • Danny Coulombe, LHP: $4MM club option for 2025
  • Cionel Pérez, LHP: $2.2MM club option for 2025 (eligible for arbitration if club option declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Soto, Smith, Mateo, Bowman, Rivera

Free Agents

The Orioles have money coming off the books this winter, most notably the salaries of Corbin Burnes ($15.64MM), Craig Kimbrel ($12MM), and Anthony Santander ($11.7MM). However, Zach Eflin is due for a raise, and his salary will be on the payroll from day one. Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez could also receive raises if the O’s exercise their club options. (The same is true for Eloy Jiménez, but this team is more likely to pick up and move to Baltimore, Ireland than it is to pick up that option.)  In addition, the Orioles have more arbitration-eligible players than any other team. 

If the Orioles pick up all of their club options (aside from Jiménez’s) and tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, that would put their player payroll for 2025 at around $105.8MM, a number that includes guaranteed contracts, buyouts, estimated salaries for arb-eligible players, and RosterResource’s $9.12MM estimate for pre-arb salaries. To put that in context, RosterResource estimates their final payroll in 2024 was $103MM. All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they're planning to improve the roster over the winter.

It's a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he'll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past. He has not confirmed that the Orioles' payroll will rise in 2025, but he told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com), “I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the Major League payroll.”

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