Archives for 2024

The offseason is here! At MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agent List and the contract/team predictions associated with each player has come to be an annual tradition and one of our most anticipated pieces of the year. However, free agency only makes up a portion of the offseason roster reconstruction that MLBTR fans follow so voraciously. Trades are every bit as pivotal to weaving the offseason tapestry, though they’re inherently a bit more difficult to predict, as they involve valuing multiple players and are generally less dependent on precedent.

We took a look at 25 trade candidates early last offseason and saw six of the top eight moved, with seven overall members of the list changing hands (and another five eventually being traded during the 2024 season). We’re upping that number to 35 this time around, in large part because a few teams figure to have a broad number of players available on the market.

The White Sox will continue their “anything that’s not nailed down” approach to the trade market, and the Cardinals for the first time in recent history are taking a step back and adopting a more future-looking approach as they overhaul their player development department. (Put another way: they’ll be selling off a whole lot of veterans.) The Rays have several players nearing the end of their control windows in Tampa Bay, which always drives player movement. The Rangers are looking to drop back under the luxury tax threshold while simultaneously looking to add multiple starting pitchers.

Before we get to the list, a note on methodology. This isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, an inherently subjective exercise. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

1. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox | Arbitration-eligible through 2026 ($2.9MM projected salary in 2025)

No mystery here. Crochet was the most talked-about trade candidate for much of the summer and only wound up staying put in Chicago after reports surfaced that he was seeking an extension if he was to pitch in the postseason and was adamant about remaining a starter in the aftermath of a trade. Crochet, the No. 11 pick in the 2020 draft, has been a high-profile arm since the moment he was drafted but has been beset by injuries.

The 2024 campaign was Crochet’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery and first full season as a big league starter. He entered the year with just 85 professional innings due to those health woes but pitched 146 innings out of the Chicago rotation. Fatigue was an issue down the stretch, as his results faded late in the year, but Crochet still notched a 3.58 ERA with elite strikeout and walk rates (35.1% and 5.5%, respectively). He averaged 97.2 mph on his heater and shouldn’t have many — if any — workload restrictions next year. He’s an ace-caliber arm (2.69 FIP, 2.53 SIERA) who’s being paid like a middle reliever because his lack of innings has curbed his earning power in arbitration. Every contender in MLB will be calling the White Sox about Crochet this winter.

2. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($6.9MM projected salary in 2025)

The Cardinals made clear they’re taking a step back, cutting payroll, and focusing on revamping their player development practice. The 2025 season isn’t going to be a competitive one for them. Helsley is one of the best relievers in the game, with a 1.83 ERA over his past three seasons. He saved an MLB-best 49 games in 2024 while pitching to a 2.04 ERA with a 29.7% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and a fastball that averaged 99.6 mph. He’s controlled for one more season and carries a modest arbitration projection because he was injured for part of 2023 and didn’t have a full season of closing work until 2024.

The St. Louis bullpen has several trade candidates, with top setup man JoJo Romero also a surefire trade candidate who’s controlled through 2026. But Helsley is the big fish in the Cardinals’ bullpen, and he’s a virtual lock to be traded this winter.

3. Erick Fedde, RHP, Cardinals | Guaranteed $7.5MM in 2025

Fedde might not be quite as much of a lock as Helsley to move, but he’s not far behind. The former first-round pick washed out after several injury-plagued years with the Nats but reinvented himself in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2023, taking home KBO MVP honors in a dominant showing. He returned to MLB on a two-year, $15MM deal with the White Sox that looked like a bargain almost immediately. Fedde was traded to the Cardinals at the deadline when St. Louis was still in “go for it” mode. The team’s priorities have changed, and they can now recoup some young talent by peddling Fedde on the heels of 177 1/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball, during which time he punched out 21.2% of opponents against a 7.2% walk rate. Fedde isn’t an ace and might not be quite as good as that 3.30 ERA suggests, but he’s a clear No. 3 or 4 starter who’s being paid like a reclamation project. He’ll generate a lot of interest, and since he’s a free agent after 2025, there’s no reason for a retooling Cardinals club to hang onto him.

4. Devin Williams, RHP, Brewers | Signed through 2025 ($10.5MM club option for 2025, which is his final arbitration season; Brewers could buy out for $250K. Projected $8MM arbitration salary)

Many will assume Williams is on here because of the unfortunate way in which his season — and the Brewers’ season — ended. That’s not the case, however. Williams stood as an obvious trade candidate long before that postseason meltdown. The Brewers are no strangers to trading their best players as they progress through their arbitration years and are particularly frugal when it comes to relief pitching. Josh Hader was in trade chatter for years before being moved with 1.5 seasons of club control remaining. Williams is arguably as good — or at least as talented — on a per-inning basis and will be more affordable.

Williams can command a solid trade return for his final season of club control, while the Brewers save some money, add to their base of young talent, and turn the ninth inning over to a more affordable arm like Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe or Joel Payamps. Milwaukee isn’t far south of its 2024 payroll even if Williams is traded and Willy Adames signs elsewhere, and owner Mark Attanasio’s recent comments didn’t exactly read like someone planning a major payroll spike.

5. Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays | Guaranteed $10MM through 2025 (contract contains $12MM club option for 2026, with no buyout)

The Rays are among the most cost-conscious teams in the sport. They have a deceptive level of payroll flexibility this offseason after trading several veterans at the deadline, but Diaz’s $10MM salary will still be a notable contract for them. The 33-year-old had a down season at the plate relative to his high standards, but much of his struggle was confined to April. From May 1 onward, Diaz hit .297/.355/.447 in 490 plate appearances.

Diaz doesn’t hit for a ton of power, however, and the Rays have a heavily right-handed lineup they’d likely prefer to balance out. Teams like the Mariners, Astros, Yankees and Pirates could be on the hunt for first basemen this winter. Flipping Diaz and allotting his playing time to Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead and/or Christopher Morel could create flexibility to add in another area while also netting some young talent. The affordable no-buyout option for the 2026 campaign only adds to the allure for other clubs.

6. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Marlins | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($6MM projected salary in 2025)

Luzardo likely would’ve been moved at the trade deadline had he not been injured. Health troubles have been a persistent theme for the talented former top prospect, and that could hamper his trade market this winter. Luzardo spent time on the IL with elbow tightness early in 2024 but returned and looked healthy — at least until he suffered a stress reaction in his lower back that proved to be a season-ending injury. He’s also missed considerable time with a forearm strain in 2022, a broken hand in 2021, and Tommy John surgery as a prospect.

Perhaps the Marlins will want Luzardo to demonstrate his health in 2025 before shopping him, but they’d run the risk of a notable injury completely tanking his value. He’s coming off a lackluster 5.00 ERA in a dozen 2024 starts but from 2022-23 turned in 279 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with very strong strikeout and walk rates. Luzardo is still only 27 and won’t be 28 until next September. He has two years of affordable club control remaining. Trading him after missing three months with a back injury certainly isn’t selling at peak value, but the Marlins can still command a good return for the left-hander. It’s worth noting that the Fish could discuss a wide range of arms this offseason, including Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers, but they both have four more years of team control and dealt with injuries.

7. Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Rays | Guaranteed $4.667MM through 2025 ($3.667MM in 2025, $7MM club option for 2026 with $1MM buyout)

Like Diaz, Fairbanks is a solid veteran contributor playing on a three-year extension he signed two offseasons ago. His $3.667MM salary this coming season is hardly prohibitive, even by Tampa Bay’s standards. But Fairbanks has had injury problems, and the Rays are down to two years of control over the right-hander. With any significant injury in 2025, his 2026 club option might not look so appealing. Right now, he’s a flamethrowing closer who averaged 97.5 mph on his heater in 2024 (and 99 mph at peak). At his best, Fairbanks has punched out more than a third of his opponents and done so with better command than most triple-digit firemen. There is obvious injury concern for any team that acquires him, but the upside is tantalizing. Fairbanks has a 2.89 ERA and 32.2% strikeout rate dating back to 2020.

8. Josh Naylor, 1B, Guardians | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($12MM projected salary in 2025)

Cleveland has a habit of trading its best players before they reach free agency, as evidenced by swaps sending out Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and others over the years. There have been exceptions — Michael Brantley comes to mind, and Shane Bieber likely wouldn’t have been traded this season had he remained healthy — but that’s typically been their modus operandi. If a top talent isn’t amenable to an extension, trade him late in arbitration, recoup some young talent, keep the payroll down, and keep the farm stocked. It’s a recipe that’s worked for them.

With Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel reaching MLB readiness and Naylor projected to earn $12MM in his final season of club control, a trade wouldn’t be a shock. Naylor is far from a bad contract, but his projected arb price only carries a few million dollars of surplus value. He probably won’t bring back a top prospect, but he can fetch a couple names to add to the middle of a perennially strong Cleveland farm. The Yankees, Astros, Mariners, D-backs and Giants could all be looking for first base help.

9. Aaron Civale, RHP, Brewers | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($8MM projected salary in 2025)

Trading Civale would be peak Brewers: acquire a player who fills an in-season need and will contain modest surplus value in the offseason, then cash in on that surplus value over the winter. In the past couple seasons alone, they’ve acquired Mark Canha, Esteury Ruiz and Abraham Toro, only to trade each within a calendar year of said acquisition. Milwaukee is a freewheeling club that’s unafraid to act boldly on the trade market.

Civale’s $8MM projected salary is hardly a burden, particularly once he pitched to a 3.53 ERA in 14 starts with the Brewers after being traded by the Rays in early July. However, that solid ERA came with pedestrian strikeout and walk rates. The Brewers also have a knack for finding quality arms at lower rates than this (see: Tobias Myers, Colin Rea). They’ll still be in the market for pitching help even if they move Civale, but trading him would be a very Brewers-esque means of leveraging the final season of a player’s club control to add young talent and free up financial resources to redirect to other areas of the roster.

10. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals | Guaranteed $74MM through 2027 ($32MM in 2025, $27MM in 2026, $15MM in 2027; Rockies paying $5MM of 2025 salary)

Arenado’s past two seasons have been more good than great. He’s produced slightly better-than-average offensive numbers (.269/.320/.426) after playing at an MVP-caliber level in 2022. He remains a clear plus defender at the hot corner, but not quite to the extent he was earlier in his career when he was arguably the best defensive player in all of baseball. With Arenado’s 34th birthday looming in April, it’s fair to question whether there’s a true rebound in his bat.

Even if there isn’t, this version of Arenado is still quite useful, particularly given the thin free agent market at third base. The Rockies are paying $5MM of what’s left on his deal, so an acquiring team would be committing $69MM over a three-year term. For a strong defensive third baseman with 15- to 25-homer pop and terrific bat-to-ball skills (14.5% strikeout rate in 2024), it’s not an egregious price to pay. And if Arenado’s bat does tick back upward, it has a chance to be a bargain. Arenado has a full no-trade clause and declined to exercise an opt-out in his contract after the 2021 season when he likely could’ve earned more than he had remaining on his contract. He said at the time he was committed to winning in St. Louis, but now that the team is gearing up for a youth movement, it’s possible he could rethink that stance. The Cardinals, looking to trim payroll and create opportunity for younger players, seem likely to at least approach him about the possibility.

11. Sonny Gray, RHP, Cardinals | Guaranteed $65MM through 2026 ($25MM in 2025, $35MM in 2026, $30MM club option for 2027 with $5MM buyout)

Like Arenado, Gray has a full no-trade clause. That, coupled with his backloaded contract, makes him a tricky player to move. Gray was selective in his decision to sign with the Cardinals and implied from the outset in free agency that location mattered and that money was not his only priority. That said, Gray is also similar to Arenado in the sense that he’s a mid-30s veteran who committed to the Cardinals when the club was in win-now mode. Playing out the final two (or three) seasons of his current deal on what figures to be a non-contending team may not hold the same appeal.

With two years and $65MM still owed to him, Gray is hardly a bargain. That’s probably more than he’d get in free agency on the heels of an age-34 campaign that saw him post a 3.84 ERA in 166 1/3 frames, though his 30.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate were far more intriguing. Contenders with deep pockets and/or clean payroll outlooks could show interest. The Reds have already been loosely linked to Gray, and the Dodgers, Orioles, Giants, Rangers and Tigers stand as speculative fits.

12. Willson Contreras, C, Cardinals | Guaranteed $59.5MM through 2027 ($18MM in 2025, $18MM in 2026, $18.5MM in 2027, $17.5MM club option for 2028 with $5MM buyout)

More Cardinals! And … more no-trade clauses! Contreras has full veto power on any trades through the 2026 season and is taking home a notable salary in each of the three remaining years on his contract. He’s also absolutely raked in his first 209 games as a Cardinal, slashing .263/.367/.468 with 35 homers in 853 plate appearances (133 wRC+). Contreras is walking more than ever, still hitting for power and remains a mixed bag when it comes to defense. He’s blocking well, per Statcast, and has a solid 24% caught-stealing rate with St. Louis. His framing remains below average.

The three years and $59.5MM remaining on Contreras’ contract don’t feel outlandish. He might even have a case to top that mark if he were a free agent at the moment. The offseason crop of catchers is thin. The Padres, Blue Jays, Rays and Guardians will all be looking for catching help this winter. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently speculated on a particularly fun match … back to the Cubs, who are also seeking a new catcher and a means to upgrade their lineup.

13. Jorge Soler, DH, Braves | Guaranteed $26MM through 2026 ($13MM in 2025, $13MM in 2026)

Note: Soler was traded to the Angels shortly after this post was published.

The Braves’ acquisition of Soler at the trade deadline was a callback to the team’s 2021 pickup of Soler that helped fuel a World Series win. It was also a reminder of the team’s perhaps unparalleled willingness to take on major salary in trades (as they’ve previously done with Soler, Mark Melancon, Raisel Iglesias, Jarred Kelenic and others). Soler was a clear band-aid for an injury-ravaged lineup but creates an obvious square peg on a roster that also includes Marcell Ozuna. Soler is in many ways Ozuna Lite — a right-handed slugger with prolific power but glaring defensive limitations that relegate him to DH duty. Rostering both players next year would mean committing to playing one of them in the outfield on a regular basis — an untenable situation to which no team would like to acquiesce.

Ozuna would be the easier of the two to trade, as his $16MM club option is less cumbersome. But Ozuna is also coming off a season in which he was Atlanta’s best hitter. Soler hit well in his return to Truist Park, slashing .243/.356/.493 with nine round-trippers in 182 plate appearances. His contract is reasonable, and a team looking for some righty pop that’s willing to commit to a full-time DH could do far worse than plugging Soler and his thunderous power into that role.

14. Ryan Pressly, RHP, Astros | Guaranteed $14MM through 2025

The offseason hasn’t even begun in earnest, and Houston general manager Dana Brown has already suggested he “may need to get creative” with the payroll to make necessary additions. That doesn’t bode well for ’Stros fans hoping to see lavish spending. Thanks in part to owner Jim Crane’s ill-fated signings of Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero (both made while operating without a GM) and also to a large arbitration class, the Astros project for a $218MM payroll next season before making a single move (hat tip to the indispensable RosterResource).

Of Houston’s veterans on guaranteed contracts, Pressly could be the most movable. He’s coming off a nice season with a 3.49 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. It’s not his best work, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old has been a high quality leverage reliever since 2018. There’d be demand from other teams, but Pressly would need to be willing to leave Houston. As a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of service, the last five for his current team), the veteran reliever has full no-trade protection. If he’s amenable to a trade, moving him could allow Houston to free up resources to pursue needs at the infield corners.

15. Christian Vazquez, C, Twins | Guaranteed $10MM in 2025

The Twins cut roughly $30MM in payroll last offseason and aren’t going back to their 2023 payroll levels anytime soon — certainly not while the club is up for a potential sale. Executive chair Joe Pohlad indicated that the payroll isn’t likely to dip further from its 2024 levels, but as explored in our Twins Offseason Outlook, Minnesota is likely already a bit north of its 2024 payroll before making a single offseason move.

When Vazquez was signed, he was expected to start over Ryan Jeffers after the former top prospect had seen his stock dwindle. Jeffers has since broken out as a clear starting catcher and taken the lion’s share of playing time. Vazquez remains a plus-plus defender behind the plate. His $10MM salary is excessive, but he’s a better hitter than Austin Hedges, who landed $4MM based on his glove alone last season. If the Twins take on a smaller salary in return or eat a few million dollars, they can find a taker for Vazquez and free up some cash.

16. Chris Paddack, RHP, Twins | Guaranteed $7.5MM in 2025

Paddack’s first year back from his second Tommy John surgery was a mixed bag. He showed off his typical brand of plus command and had a handful of dominant outings but also mixed in far too many meltdowns, finishing out the year with a 4.99 ERA in 17 starts (88 1/3 innings). A forearm strain in July ended his season. It was always risky to bank on Paddack taking a meaningful rotation role when he’d pitched all of 27 innings in the two preceding seasons, but it’d be more reasonable to anticipate a full workload next year now that he’s built back up a bit.

The Twins, however, have payroll issues and could welcome the opportunity to move Paddack’s salary. At $7.5MM, he could even be slightly underpriced relative to what a team would give him in free agency. Minnesota could move him and still have a rotation mix including Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, with more prospects on the horizon.

17. Luis Arraez, 2B, Padres | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($14.6MM projected salary in 2025)

The Padres are already staring down a payroll north of $200MM and a luxury-tax ledger that’s right up against the threshold in 2025 before making a single offseason addition. Their outgoing free agents include Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Tanner Scott, Kyle Higashioka, David Peralta, Donovan Solano and Martin Perez. They’ll be without Joe Musgrove for all of 2025 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Their needs are plentiful.

Arraez is quite arguably a luxury for this team. San Diego can roll with Manny Machado at third, Xander Bogaerts at shortstop and Jake Cronenworth at second. Arraez currently stands as the starter at first base, but they could trade him and that projected salary to address another need and find a more affordable first baseman in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana) or via the trade market. (There are several options on this list.) It’s confounding to many fans to see the game’s best contact hitter hot potato’ed around the league, but Arraez has bottom-of-the-scale power, well below-average speed and poor defensive grades. He’s a useful player, but more limited than most would expect from a three-time batting champion.

18. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($9.5MM projected salary in 2025)

Yastrzemski has seemingly been a trade candidate for years, but the Giants have hung onto him for almost his entire slate of six pre-free-agent seasons. Acquiring Yastrzemski was one of the first and most successful moves of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as president of baseball operations in San Francisco. But Zaidi is no longer there, with Buster Posey taking over the role, and Yastrzemski is now just a year from free agency. He’s not the hitter he was early in his Giants run, but Yaz posted a serviceable .231/.302/.437 line with 18 homers. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as a plus right fielder. Statcast graded him a bit below average.

The Giants will be looking for ways to improve the lineup and inject more offense and more star power into the roster. With Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. both one year from free agency, either one of them could be moved as Posey pursues that goal.

19. David Bednar, RHP, Pirates | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($6.6MM projected salary in 2025)

Bednar’s shockingly poor season puts the cost-conscious Pirates in a tough spot. The 30-year-old righty is a Pittsburgh native and was a hometown hero for the Bucs from 2021-23 when he tossed a combined 179 2/3 innings of 2.25 ERA ball, fanned more than 31% of his opponents and saved 61 games. This season, Bednar turned in a ghastly 5.77 ERA as his strikeout rate plummeted to 22.1% and his walk rate spiked to a career-worst 10.7%. There’s no evidence of an arm injury (though he did miss time with an oblique strain). In fact, Bednar’s velocity actually ticked up by about half a mile per hour, sitting at a career-best 97.2 mph.

Next year’s projected $6.6MM is heavier for the Pirates than it would be for most clubs. That said, the Bucs shelled out $8MM for fifth starter Martin Perez and $10.5MM for Aroldis Chapman in free agency last year. It’s not as though they can’t afford it. But if Bednar’s struggles continue, he’ll lose any semblance of trade value and eventually be rendered a DFA or non-tender candidate. Moving him now would open some payroll space but would be selling low on a hometown pitcher who was an All-Star as recently as 2023.

20. Brendan Donovan, INF/OF, Cardinals | Arb-eligible through 2027 ($3.6MM projected salary in 2025)

Yes, more Cardinals. Donovan isn’t as pressing a case any of Arenado, Gray, Contreras, Fedde or Helsley because he has three seasons of club control remaining, is more affordable and can more or less play anywhere on the diamond. That said, all of those factors will also make him appealing to other clubs. We know the Cardinals aren’t going to focus on contending for at least one of Donovan’s three remaining seasons, and if the goal is to beef up the farm system, listening to offers on one of the sport’s premier jacks of all trades makes good sense.

A more aggressive approach in 2024 led to Donovan displaying career-best power numbers (14 homers, .140 ISO), a career-low walk rate (7.2%) and perhaps most surprisingly, a career-best strikeout rate (12.4%). He’s a good hitter who can handle all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Moving Donovan could make room for a number of young players, including Thomas Saggese and Nolan Gorman. Unless, well…

21. Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals | Arb-eligible through 2028 (still pre-arbitration in 2025)

Gorman doesn’t fall in line with the types of Cardinals elsewhere on this list. He’s very controllable, has not yet reached arbitration, and could well be a building block for the next competitive Cardinals club. That said, the former top prospect hasn’t established himself in parts of three big league seasons now, and his lack of consistency clearly has been a point of consternation for the front office. Just ask president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, who said this just prior to demoting Gorman to Triple-A over the summer (link via MLB.com’s John Denton):

“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can. I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you.”

That’s hardly a ringing endorsement. Gorman won’t turn 25 until May. He has huge power and has slashed .263/.316/.505 in parts of three Triple-A seasons. He’s also quite strikeout prone, particularly in the majors so far (34.1%), and the Cards have other options at second base (Saggese) and third base (Jordan Walker) if they end up moving Arenado. He’s far from a slam-dunk trade candidate, but a change of scenery also shouldn’t come as a major shock.

22. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox | Arb-eligible through 2029 (still pre-arbitration in 2025)

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has already voiced a desire to balance a lefty-heavy lineup that include Abreu, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida, with lefty-swinging outfielder Roman Anthony on the cusp of MLB and currently ranking as the sport’s top prospect at Baseball America. There’s been ample speculation among the Sox beat and fan base alike about the possibility of moving Duran, Abreu or Casas. We’re of the mind that trading Duran on the heels of a season that’d garner MVP consideration in most years — when he has four more seasons of club control remaining — would be too large a leap.

Abreu is a fine player but stands as the more logical trade candidate. He’s a plus defensive right fielder but comes with notable platoon concerns. The 25-year-old batted .266/.334/.491 against righties, but the Sox only felt comfortable giving him 67 plate appearances against lefties and he responded with a bleak .180/.254/.279 output. Abreu hit lefties better in the minors, but he’s long posted noticeably better numbers against righties.

Any of Abreu, Duran or Casas would have trade value, but Duran’s value is more well-rounded. Moving four years of control over Duran in hopes that Anthony might reach the same type of ceiling Duran just realized in the majors would be odd. Casas comes with lesser platoon considerations and thus larger overall upside at the plate. Abreu’s value is tied more heavily to his glovework, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing but does give him more floor than it does ceiling. With a strong enough pitcher being offered up in return, the Red Sox would likely keep an open mind to just about anything. The Sox could and likely will try to move Yoshida as well, but his contract is significantly underwater and he’s now coming off shoulder surgery.

23. Leody Taveras, OF, Rangers | Arb-eligible through 2027 ($4.3MM projected salary in 2025)

The Rangers’ offense disappeared in 2024, with nearly every regular taking a step back at the plate. Texas is going to be looking for ways to turn things around, and they’ve now given Taveras more than 1700 plate appearances in the majors to show he can provide at least average offense. He hasn’t done so in any season but 2023, and it’s now fair to question whether that season was an outlier.

Taveras hit just .229/.289/.352 in 2024 but delivered a heartier .266/.312/.421 line in 2023. The Rangers will have to determine which of those is the real Taveras … if the plan is to stick with him. Texas also has Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia as outfield options, with utilitymen Josh H. Smith and Ezequiel Duran also in the fold and prospect Dustin Harris providing another option. Taveras is a switch-hitter and plus runner who can go get it in center field (although DRS was surprisingly bearish on his glovework in ’24). Another club with a center field need would surely look to buy low if the Rangers want to reallocate his playing time to younger options and his projected salary to their glaring pitching needs.

24. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Rangers | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($10.7MM projected salary in 2025)

Unlike many of his teammates, Lowe did not take a step back at the plate from 2023 to 2024. His batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walk rate and strikeout rate from ’24 are all near mirror images of his ’23 campaign. Both years pale in comparison to his brilliant 2022 season, however, and Lowe’s price tag is mounting at a time when the Rangers have a crowded payroll, a need for starting pitching, and multiple prospects who could plausibly slide in at first base (e.g. Justin Foscue, Dustin Harris). Texas reportedly had some discussions about Lowe prior to the deadline, so it’s something they’ve pondered recently.

25. Chas McCormick, OF, Astros | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($3.3MM projected salary in 2025)

A quality role player who tormented lefties and held his own against righties in Houston from 2021-23, McCormick’s production cratered in a career-worst season that now renders him a change-of-scenery candidate. His $3.3MM projected salary is plenty affordable, but the 29-year-old is coming off a disastrous .211/.271/.306 showing in an injury-marred season. The Astros have Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers and Kyle Tucker, plus utilityman Mauricio Dubon as an option. Top prospect Jacob Melton isn’t far from being big league ready and should debut in 2025. Moving McCormick wouldn’t create the same level of financial breathing room that a trade of Pressly would, but the Astros could feel the money is better spent elsewhere than on a fourth outfielder seeking a rebound season.

26. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets | Arb-eligible through 2029 (still pre-arbitration in 2025)

“Brett Baty or Mark Vientos?” was a question in Queens until it wasn’t. Vientos emphatically won the everyday third base job in 2024, posting a .266/.322/.516 batting line and crushing 27 homers in just 111 games (plus five more in just 13 playoff games during a sensational postseason run for the young slugger). The future of both Baty and Vientos is tied somewhat to that of free agent Pete Alonso. If the Polar Bear signs elsewhere, it’s feasible that Vientos could slide to first base, leaving third base open for a competition between two defensively superior former top prospects: Baty and Ronny Mauricio. If Alonso returns, however, the Mets will run it back with their present corner infield duo.

Baty has dabbled at second base and left field in the minors, but he’s had big league looks in three straight seasons now and hasn’t landed a long-term spot. He has little left to prove in Triple-A, where he’s a .273/.368/.531 hitter in three seasons. A change of scenery could be in order, and plenty of clubs would welcome the chance to acquire an affordable, potential long-term option at third base.

27. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, D-backs | $15MM club option for 2025 ($2MM buyout)

Suarez might feel like an odd candidate for this list, given his outrageous second half. He was one of baseball’s most prolific offensive performers in the season’s final three months, carrying a Herculean .312/.357/.617 batting line from July 1 through season’s end. Along the way, Suarez ripped 24 homers in just 325 plate appearances. He can still play a solid third base. His option is not at all unreasonable.

However, it’s worth looking at where things stood with Suarez prior to that second-half surge. The slugger had been acquired from the Mariners in what amounted to a salary dump. He had a hot week or two to open the season and then faceplanted over the next two months. His slump reached a low enough point in June that the D-backs would no longer commit to him in an everyday role. The plan was to play rookie Blaze Alexander at third base with increasing frequency. Suarez got hot at the right time, potentially saving not only his place in the starting lineup but perhaps on the roster. On June 23, he was sitting on a .192/.276/.308 batting line. Jordan Lawlar, the No. 6 pick in the 2021 draft, is nearly MLB-ready and has torched Triple-A pitching. Trading Suarez could open a spot for Lawlar and net some additional young talent.

28. Lane Thomas, OF, Guardians | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($8.3MM projected salary in 2025)

Thomas’ situation bears some similarity to that of the already-listed Naylor, but he has a lower projected salary and greater defensive utility, making him likelier to stay put (and thus landing him further down this list). That said, he has just one year of club control remaining and turned in a Jekyll-and-Hyde performance with Cleveland. Thomas hit .148/.239/.198 with a wildly uncharacteristic 38% strikeout rate in his first month as a Guardian. He caught fire for the next two weeks, hitting .367 and slugging .735 over a span of 50 plate appearances but did so without drawing a walk and while still whiffing at a 34% clip. He then tallied just six more hits in his final 45 plate appearances.

It all worked out to a pretty bleak .209/.267/.390 slash with the Guards, and a huge 34.8% strikeout rate that towered over his 21.1% mark with the Nats. That said, Thomas posted better numbers in the postseason and of course delivered the pivotal grand slam off likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal that effectively punched Cleveland’s ticket to the ALCS.

29. Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($8.7MM projected salary in 2025)

The Orioles were reportedly open to offers on Mullins leading up to the trade deadline. He has a year of team control remaining that will come at an affordable price in a thin market for center fielders. Mullins has never replicated his gargantuan 2021 season, but he’s a plus runner with 15- to 20-homer pop and a good glove in the outfield. The O’s needn’t feel as though they must move Mullins, but he probably won’t be a qualifying offer candidate next winter and the team is rife with young outfield options. Colton Cowser can take over in center field, and Heston Kjerstad looks ready for a full time corner audition. The O’s also saw prospects Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian reach Triple-A last year, and there’s been speculation about Coby Mayo winding up in an outfield corner as well. A trade of Mullins could free up some cash while simultaneously bringing in rotation or bullpen help the team will target this winter.

30. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Orioles | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($6.6MM projected salary in 2025)

Speaking of players the O’s were open to moving in July, Mountcastle makes this list as a righty-swinging first baseman with two seasons of club control remaining. As with Mullins, he’s hardly an unproductive player — just an increasingly expensive one with dwindling club control in an organization that’s teeming with position players. Mountcastle hit .271/.308/.425 with 13 homers in 507 plate appearances this past season — good but not great production (108 wRC+). His power numbers have dipped since the O’s changed the dimensions in left field at Camden Yards, but Mountcastle did bash a combined 55 homers in 2021-22. He’s also become a strong defensive first baseman. It’s not a star-caliber profile, but as mentioned earlier, the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are among the teams that could use first base help this winter.

31. Brent Rooker, OF/DH, Athletics | Arb-eligible through 2027 ($5.1MM projected salary in 2025)

Rooker has gone from waiver fodder to one of the game’s premier sluggers in a span of two seasons. He brings legitimate 40-homer upside to any lineup and boasts virtually no platoon split, demolishing left-handers and right-handers alike. Rooker is a bit strikeout-prone but offsets that with his propensity for thunderous contact. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate are elite, and while he doesn’t walk quite as much as the prototypical slugger, his 9.6% rate in 2024 was better than average. He’s a slightly better-than-average runner and even chipped in 11 stolen bases in 2024.

Rooker is a legitimate middle-of-the-order behemoth who’d fetch a king’s ransom on the trade market, even if he’s been deployed primarily as a DH by the A’s. The Athletics resisted moving him at the deadline and may want to have one premium player to market in their lineup as they begin their temporary relocation to Sacramento, but teams are going to do their best to pry him loose this winter.

32. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Cubs | Guaranteed $52.5MM through 2026 ($27.5MM in 2025, $25MM player option for 2026 with $5MM buyout)

There’s been a fair bit of debate as to whether Cody Bellinger will trigger the opt-out in his contract. Doing so would mean leaving $50MM on the table, which seems like a reach, given that he has an opt-out next year as well and would bank a $27.5MM salary and at least a $5MM buyout on his 2026 player option if he forgoes his current opt-out opportunity. Bellinger isn’t going to command a $32.5MM salary this offseason, and even a larger multi-year deal might only guarantee him $20-30MM more than he has on his current deal.

The Cubs, however, should be rooting for a Bellinger opt-out. They’re looking to upgrade their offense but have a series of expensive veterans with no-trade protection installed up and down the lineup. Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson all have full no-trade rights. Nico Hoerner’s recent surgery makes him highly unlikely to move. Michael Busch posted a better OBP and slugging percentage than Bellinger. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a superior defender in center field.

That said, if Bellinger does stick in Chicago, his contract isn’t any kind of albatross. In fact, in a thin market for center fielders and left-handed hitters alike, he could hold value on the market. The Cubs have comparable options (in terms of overall value) across the outfield and at first base, but that’s not true of every team. Trading Bellinger would free up a lineup spot to pursue an upgrade and some payroll to perhaps look to add to the pitching staff. Bellinger isn’t a bad player or on a bad contract, but he’s somewhat redundant on his current roster.

33. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, D-backs | Guaranteed $22.5MM in 2025

D-backs owner Ken Kendrick seemingly did everything he could to disparage Montgomery in hopes he’ll turn down his $22.5MM player option when publicly stating:

“If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed. Because I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did. It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”

Despite Kendrick’s comments, Montgomery seems likely to exercise his option, as he’s not going to command $22.5MM on the open market. A change-of-scenery trade for the 2023 postseason hero who slipped to a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings after signing late in spring training would certainly make sense — but it’d likely require the D-backs absorbing another team’s unwanted contract or eating a significant portion of the salary.

34. Luis Robert Jr., OF, White Sox | Guaranteed $17MM through 2025 ($15MM salary in 2025; $20MM club option for 2026 with $2MM buyout; $20MM club option for 2027 with $2MM buyout)

With a season that looked anything like his stellar 2023 campaign, Robert would be at the top of this list. Then again, if he’d played anything like he did in 2023, Robert would probably have been traded at the deadline. Instead, a hip flexor strain wiped out nearly half his season. And when healthy, Robert didn’t hit at all. He batted just .224/.278/.379 with a career-worst 33.2% strikeout rate.

The White Sox could still look to move Robert this winter, but it’s hard to imagine they’d sell this low on him when a healthy start to his 2025 season would send his value skyrocketing. At his best, Robert is an MVP-level performer. Holding onto him runs the risk of a scenario where he’s injured for most of the season again and the Sox decline his option, losing him for no return at all. But that risk might be preferable to selling him for pennies on the dollar and watching him rebound elsewhere for a team that acquired three years of Robert at a fraction of full market value. It’s not a great spot for the Sox. A trade is at least possible, but holding him seems like the better play.

35. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays | Guaranteed $16.5MM in 2025

Bichette is on the list largely because teams are going to try to acquire him, but a trade here feels unlikelier than any name on the list (hence him landing in the final spot). The Jays have signaled that they want to retool and try to compete again in 2025. Bichette would logically be a big part of that, assuming he can rebound from an injury-shortened and uncharacteristically feeble year at the plate. Moving him now would also mean selling low on an All-Star player before his 27th birthday. It’s very easy to see a scenario where the Jays underperform early in 2025 and Bichette is a summer trade chip, but the team seems committed to taking at least one more chance with a core led by Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next season. Bichette will pop up in plenty of rumors this winter, but a trade doesn’t feel likely.