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Braves Among Teams With Interest In Walker Buehler

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The Braves are among the clubs showing early interest in free agent righty Walker Buehler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (video link).

Buehler, 30, reached free agency for the first time this winter and, despite a strong finish to his postseason, is generally viewed as a rebound candidate on the heels of a dismal showing in 2024. This past season marked Buehler’s first year back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career, and some rust was quite clear.

After not pitching at all in 2023, Buehler tossed 75 1/3 innings in the big leagues but was tagged for a 5.38 ERA with career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His four-seamer, which averaged 96.5 mph from 2017-20, clocked in at an average of 95 mph, per Statcast. He entered 2024 with an 11.6% swinging-strike rate but logged an 8.2% mark in 2024 — ranked 190th out of the 204 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings.

The Padres rocked Buehler for six runs across five innings in his first postseason start, but he went out on a high note. In 10 subsequent innings, he was unscored upon, recording a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio in the process. That includes a pair of scoreless starts (four and five innings apiece), and what will go down as a gutsy closing effort in the ninth inning of World Series Game 5, when Buehler finished off the Yankees to clinch L.A.’s championship just 48 hours after he’d started Game 3.

Atlanta’s need for rotation reinforcements is rather clear. The Braves saw Max Fried and Charlie Morton become free agents when the season ended. Spencer Strider likely won’t be ready for Opening Day as he continues rehabbing from last year’s UCL surgery. The Braves’ rotation, as currently constructed, will be headlined by likely Cy Young winner Chris Sale, converted reliever Reynaldo Lopez and 2024 breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. Options for the fourth and fifth spots at the moment include Griffin Canning (acquired for Jorge Soler), Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Bryce Elder.

Sale, of course, was dominant in a 2024 season that’s already netted him NL Comeback Player of the Year honors and is all but guaranteed to result in his first career Cy Young Award. But as good as he was in ’24, the lefty will pitch next year at age 36 and only pitched a total of 151 innings in the four-year span prior to this Braves renaissance. It can’t (or shouldn’t) be simply assumed that he’s once again good for 29 to 33 starts annually. Similarly, Lopez was excellent but missed time due to a forearm strain while shattering his own recent workload standards. The Braves surely hope that both will be as effective in 2025 as in 2024 — and as healthy or even healthier — but that’s far from a given.

Some form of rotation supplement is likely, and the Braves typically haven’t spent at the levels likely necessary to retain Fried — at least when it comes to free agents. Most of their long-term deals have focused on players who are either early in arbitration or have not yet reached arbitration. Those contracts all typically begin in a player’s mid- or late-20s. Fried will be 31 next year. A reunion seems unlikely, especially with the Braves likely to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and with Fried likely to command an annual value north of $25MM. Atlanta would be facing a tax of at least 50% on Fried’s annual value in 2025.

Exactly what type of contract Buehler will command remains unclear. He was at one point one of the game’s promising young aces, pitching 564 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate from 2018-21. That version of Buehler hasn’t been seen in three years, however. It’s possible some clubs feel there’s enough upside to guarantee him multiple years right now. A two-year deal with an opt-out feels feasible, and maybe a club would put down a three-year offer with a more modest AAV and hope for a return to form.

It’s notable, though, that the deep-pocketed Dodgers are the team most familiar with Buehler, his medical history and what to expect from his performance moving forward — and they opted against extending a $21.05MM qualifying offer to the right-hander. On the one hand, that’s good news for his market and gives any club signing him to a short-term deal the possibility of recouping draft pick compensation with a QO of their own if Buehler performs well. On the other, the lack of a QO can be construed as a red flag.

If Buehler is amenable to a one-year deal, he fits the broad profile of what the Braves have targeted in free agent starting pitchers. Last offseason’s three-year deal for Lopez was the first time under Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos that the team signed a starter to a multi-year deal — although even that can be viewed as something of an exception. The team expressed interest in trying to stretch Lopez out from the time of his signing, but there was always a possibility he’d return to a bullpen role if the experiment didn’t work. Anthopoulos has been far more willing to put down market-rate AAVs on relievers (in the $8-11MM range) than on conventional starters. Anthopoulos also knows Buehler better than most free agents, given his former role as the vice president of baseball operations in the Dodgers’ front office — a role he held when Buehler was drafted and was on the rise through the Dodgers’ system.

Juan Soto Rumors: Red Sox, Yankees, Jays, Dodgers

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Juan Soto’s free agency will be the primary narrative this offseason until he chooses his next landing spot, though there’s no indication that things are close. The 26-year-old superstar began meeting with teams this week but is still in the early stages of the process. For instance, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reports that while the Red Sox feel their three-hour meeting with Soto and agent Scott Boras was “productive,” it was more introductory and informative than anything else. The two sides did not discuss years and dollars; the Sox pitched Soto on their plans for the future, their upcoming wave of high-end prospects and other aspects of the organization, while Soto sought to learn about their player evaluation methods, Fenway Park’s facilities, etc. It’s common for early meetings of this nature for top-end free agents to be introductory in nature, so this isn’t necessarily unique to Soto.

The Red Sox haven’t been involved in the deep waters of free agency in recent offseasons. Trevor Story is the lone nine-figure expenditure for the Sox in the past five years. Since signing David Price in 2015, the Red Sox have only gone beyond two years on a free agent four times (Story, J.D. Martinez, Masataka Yoshida and Nathan Eovaldi). Given that, it’s not surprising to see one of the elements Soto hoped to gauge (per McAdam) was the team’s “commitment to winning.”

That said, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that the Red Sox are approaching their pursuit of Soto with a level of “intent” that we’ve not seen from Boston “in some time.” Intent alone won’t win the bidding, of course, but the Sox have not been characterized as major players for top-end free agents in recent years. All indications this offseason seem to signal a shift in direction.

The incumbent Yankees and crosstown Mets are still perceived by many as the favorites to win the Soto bidding, once formal offers begin rolling in. To this point, it doesn’t seem the process has reached that point. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are comfortable going to 13 years and topping Aaron Judge’s $40MM annual salary in order to keep Soto, placing their baseline comfort level somewhere in the $520MM range overall. Most expectations are that Soto will exceed that mark by a fair margin, but it’s a notable starting point all the same.

Meanwhile, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at at the Blue Jays’ interest in Soto, noting that as was the case with Shohei Ohtani last offseason, ownership views him as an exception to any other offseason budgetary plans. Toronto’s pursuit of Soto is not an indication that if the Jays miss out on the star slugger, they’ll pivot and spend $500-700MM elsewhere in free agency. Within his previously referenced column, Heyman doubles down on prior reporting that the Blue Jays plan to be aggressive in their pursuit of Soto.

That’s not necessarily the case with all of his expected suitors. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Dodgers “won’t chase after Soto,” having already committed to nine more years of Ohtani and thus potentially restricting them in the event that Soto eventually needs to spend more time at designated hitter. They’ll be opportunistic and perhaps jump into the fray if the market doesn’t develop as Soto hopes, though that seems unlikely, given the robust demand for his services and a potential Bronx-versus-Queens bidding war.

Up until last winter, with Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that was generally how Los Angeles had approached the market under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Though they regularly fielded one of the game’s largest payrolls and most star-studded rosters, most of the Dodgers’ star power over the years was acquired on the trade market (e.g. Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow) or developed in-house (e.g. Will Smith, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager prior to his free agent departure). Freddie Freeman was the lone big-ticket free agent acquisition, and he came on board with a deferral-laden deal after an extended stay on the open market. That scenario almost certainly won’t happen with Soto.

As it stands, there’s still no expected timetable for when Soto might reach a decision or when offers might be presented in earnest. The fact that the Red Sox didn’t even delve into numbers speaks to the current preliminary stage of the bidding process. It’s always possible Soto could decide he wants to accelerate the process and have a team by the end of the month, but a decision at some point in December feels likelier.

Angels, Scott Kingery Avoid Arbitration

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Nov. 15: Kingery will earn $770K this season, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register — just $10K north of the league minimum.

Nov. 14: The Angels reached agreement with Scott Kingery on a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link). Salary terms have not been reported. Kingery is under arbitration control through the 2027 season.

Kingery just landed with the Halos a few weeks ago. Los Angeles acquired the infielder from the Phillies in a small trade. They added him to their 40-man roster to keep him from hitting minor league free agency. Kingery has more than three years of service time from his stint with the Phils, so he immediately became eligible for arbitration when the Angels put him on the roster. MLBTR did not project a salary for Kingery because he was not on a 40-man at the time of our arbitration projections (courtesy of Matt Swartz). It’d be a surprise if he’s in for a salary much above the league minimum.

In any case, the Arizona product has a clear path back to the majors. Kingery, who signed a $24MM extension before making his debut in 2018, has played in all of one big league game in the last three years. That came as a defensive substitute in 2022. He hasn’t reached 40 games in an MLB season since 2019. Kingery didn’t make much of an impact in Philadelphia, running a .229/.280/.387 line in more than 1100 plate appearances.

The Phillies kept him in Triple-A after outrighting him off the roster. Kingery didn’t have the ability to test minor league free agency without forfeiting the remainder of his extension, which expired last winter. He has essentially spent the last three seasons in the upper minors, turning in roughly league average results. The former second-rounder hit .268/.316/.488 with 25 homers and stolen bases apiece in a hitter-friendly setting this year.

While he came up as a second base prospect, Kingery spent most of this past season at shortstop. He can cover both middle infield spots and move around the outfield. The Angels could be without Zach Neto to begin the season after his recent shoulder procedure. The Halos just signed Kevin Newman as their expected fill-in at shortstop. Kingery can bounce around the diamond in a bench role.

KBO’s Doosan Bears Sign Cole Irvin

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The Korea Baseball Organization’s Doosan Bears announced that they’ve signed left-hander Cole Irvin to a one-year deal that’ll guarantee him $1MM, coming in the form of an $800K salary and $200K signing bonus (link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency).

It’ll be the first stint overseas for Irvin, who’s pitched in the majors with the Phillies, A’s, Orioles and Twins over the past six seasons. The now 30-year-old southpaw (31 in January) was a quality innings eater for the 2021-22 A’s, starting 62 games and pitching to a 4.11 ERA. Irvin’s 90.7 mph average fastball and 16.8% strikeout rate were both well below average, but he also demonstrated pinpoint command, limiting opponents to a 5.2% walk rate.

The Orioles acquired Irvin from the A’s in exchange for Darell Hernaiz heading into the 2023 season, hoping to solidify the back of their rotation. It didn’t pan out. Irvin was hit hard early and surprisingly optioned to Triple-A just weeks into the season. He returned later in the year and rebounded to finish with a 4.42 ERA in 77 1/3 frames, spending more time in the bullpen than in the rotation.

The 2024 season didn’t work out much better; Irvin was tagged for a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances before being designated for assignment and heading to the Twins via waivers. He allowed five runs in 3 2/3 frames with Minnesota, finishing out the season with a 5.11 ERA. The Twins outrighted him at the end of September, and he elected free agency in early October.

In all, Irvin heads to the KBO with a career 4.54 ERA, 17.1% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate in 593 big league innings. The Bears’ press release announcing his signing specifically touted the southpaw’s “great control,” which has indeed been Irvin’s greatest strength in the big leagues thus far.

Whenever a pitcher heads overseas on a one-year deal, it’s possible that some tweaks (new pitch, altered mechanics or pitch usage rates) yield big results and pique the interest of MLB clubs the following winter. But, it’s just as possible that Irvin will pitch his way into more lucrative opportunities in Asia. The $1MM salary he’s receiving this year is the maximum for first-year foreign signees in the KBO, but he could earn a raise next season or perhaps garner interest from a team in Japan, where players typically have greater earning power than in Korea.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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The Opener: Contract Talks, Roster Moves, Teoscar

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world this weekend:

1. Deals to avoid arbitration:

The non-tender deadline is one week from today, and last night saw the first player of the winter look to avoid the arbitration process entirely and sign with his club early. In this case, the Angels avoided arbitration with recently-acquired utilityman Scott Kingery, though the financial details of that deal are not yet known. The days leading up to the non-tender deadline are typically rife with similar deals signed by players on the non-tender bubble, often referred to as pre-tender deals. Mets DH DJ Stewart and Rockies southpaw Jalen Beeks were among the players who signed such agreements a year ago. Pre-tender deals often fall shy of expectations/projections, as the alternative to accepting that lower salary is typically a non-tender.

2. 40-man roster moves looming:

Even sooner than the non-tender deadline is the deadline for teams to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, which is scheduled for this coming Tuesday at 5pm CT. While many teams have a handful of 40-man roster spots available for prospects that need protection, that’s not true for every club, and even some clubs with roster space available will have more prospects to protect than openings. Most clubs will wait until the final hours leading into the deadline to announce these moves, but some could get a jump on clearing roster space this weekend.

The Red Sox stand out as one particularly interesting example of a club in need of roster space. Not only do they have a full 40-man roster, but they also have a player in need of protection who isn’t a typical prospect: right-hander Michael Fulmer, who signed with the club on a two-year minor league deal last winter while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. If not added onto the club’s 40-man roster by Tuesday, Fulmer will be a rare established big leaguer available in the Rule 5 draft and for that reason would stand a strong chance of getting selected away from Boston during the Winter Meetings next month.

3. The Hernandez market:

Juan Soto has understandably dominated headlines for major free agent hitters this offseason, particularly with him taking individual meetings with interested teams over the course of the past week. Many top-tier free agents will want to wait for Soto’s decision before signing, as the teams that miss on Soto will be motivated to pursue alternatives more aggressively. One possible exception? Teoscar Hernandez, who just won his third career Silver Slugger Award. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested earlier this week that Hernandez may not wait for Soto to sign and could be one of the first big-name free agents off the board this winter.

Hernandez sat on the market for more than two months last offseason awaiting a three-year offer that never materialized. He eventually signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers in January. Given that lengthy stay on last year’s market, it’s understandable that he’d prefer a quicker turnaround this winter. The Dodgers, Orioles and Red Sox have all been connected to Hernandez thus far. He slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-high 33 homers and tied a career-high 12 steals with L.A. in the regular season, then went on to hit .250/.352/.417 with three home runs during the Dodgers’ postseason run to a 2024 World Series crown.

Rays To Play 2025 Season At George M. Steinbrenner Field

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The Rays have decided on their temporary home for the 2025 season: George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. Steinbrenner Field is the spring training home of the Yankees and the regular season home of the Tampa Tarpons, New York’s Single-A affiliate. Colleen Wright and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times were the first to report the news.

The Rays explained their decision, describing Steinbrenner Field as “the best-prepared facility in the Tampa Bay region to host regular-season Major League Baseball games” (per Topkin). Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner weighed in on the decision with his own statement:

“We are happy to extend our hand to the Rays and their fans by providing a Major League-quality facility for them to utilize this season. Both the Yankees organization and my family have deep roots in the Tampa Bay region, and we understand how meaningful it is for Rays players, employees and fans to have their 2025 home games take place within 30 minutes of Tropicana Field. In times like these, rivalry and competition take a back seat to doing what’s right for our community — which is continuing to help families and businesses rebound from the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.”

The Yankees will continue to play their spring games at Steinbrenner Field, per the league, and the Rays will be business-as-usual in March as well, hosting their games at their annual home in Port Charlotte.

With regard to the regular season, Tim Kephart of the Associated Press reports that the Tarpons will use other fields at the spring facility. There will be upgrades made to the stadium prior to Opening Day to “ensure fans continue to have a wonderful experience,” per the league’s press release. Recent improvements have already been made to the facility itself, including upgraded lighting, a larger home locker room, and improved training and rehab setups. The Yankees, according to Kephart, will receive an additional $15MM in revenue for agreeing to host the Rays in 2025. That won’t come at the cost of the Rays’ revenue but rather insurance and other yet-unreported avenues.

Red Sox Sign Justin Wilson

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The Red Sox announced they’ve added lefty reliever Justin Wilson on a one-year contract. Boston had an opening on the 40-man roster, which is now at capacity. Wilson, an ACES client, is reportedly guaranteed $2.25MM on a deal that offers another $750K in incentives. He’d earn $150K apiece for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances.

Wilson, 37, has a lengthy track record in the majors but has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year to pitch 46 2/3 innings for Cincinnati but was tagged for an unsightly 5.59 earned run average in that time. A good portion of those struggles were due to spikes in his average on balls in play and home run rate, the latter of which was directly influenced by the hitter-friendly nature of his home park in Cincinnati. Seven of the ten homers surrendered by Wilson last year came at Great American Ball Park, which has been far and away MLB’s most homer-friendly setting over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s Park Factors. (Boston’s Fenway Park is right in the middle of the pack at No. 16.)

Wilson’s run-prevention numbers were uninspiring, but his rate stats were far more encouraging. Both his 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate were better than league average. The 95.5 mph he averaged on his four-seamer was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 95.9 mph average in 2017. The 92.3 mph he averaged on his cutter was a career-high. Metrics like xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.41), which normalize a pitcher’s homer-to-flyball rate, both feel Wilson is a strong bet to rebound in 2025 if he can continue at his 2024 pace.

From 2015-20, Wilson was one of the most consistently effective lefties in the game. He appeared in 344 games between the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs and Mets during that span, totaling 291 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. His command looked far better than usual in his ’24 showing with the Reds, and his ability to miss bats didn’t seem overly compromised. The veteran Wilson is no stranger to late-inning work, having picked up 142 holds and 20 saves in his 12 major league seasons.

Entering the offseason, Brennan Bernardino was the only lefty reliever who could be comfortably projected for Boston’s 2025 bullpen. Fellow southpaws Bailey Horn, Cam Booser and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man roster as well. However, Murphy had Tommy John surgery last year and won’t be ready for Opening Day. Horn and Booser come with little to no big league experience of which to speak. Wilson will provide skipper Alex Cora with a seasoned veteran who’s still capable of missing bats and, if he can get back to pre-surgery levels of run prevention, could eventually emerge as a viable leverage option at a bargain price point.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report that Wilson and the Red Sox had an agreement. Rob Bradford of WEEI first reported it was a one-year major league deal with a $2.25MM base salary and $750K in incentives. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specific incentive structure.

Angels Sign Kevin Newman

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The Angels announced the signing of free agent infielder Kevin Newman on a one-year deal with a club option for 2026. The Halos designated catcher Matt Thaiss for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot. Newman, a Jonathan Weiss client, is reportedly guaranteed $2.75MM. That takes the form of a $2.5MM salary for next season and a $250K buyout on a $2.5MM club option for 2026. The Angels recently announced that shortstop Zach Neto could miss the start of the 2025 season following shoulder surgery.

Newman, 31, had a nice year in a utility role with the Diamondbacks in 2024. The former Pirates first-rounder hit .278/.311/.375 (89 wRC+) with plus defense at both middle infield spots. He also logged brief time at third base and in the outfield corners. He doesn’t provide any power (three homers, .097 ISO) or draw many walks (4.8%), but Newman also showed pesky contact skills, fanning in only 15.4% of his plate appearances. He’s a roughly average runner but has savvy enough instincts to have gone 30-for-35 in stolen base attempts over the past four seasons (85.7% success). Newman swiped eight bags in each of the past three seasons and peaked at a career-best 16 steals when he was given more playing time with the Pirates in 2019.

Even in the event that Neto is ready for Opening Day, Newman makes some sense as a pure bench option for an Angels club that’s lacking any sort of proven contributor. Former top prospect Scott Kingery is currently in line to hold a bench role. The only other infield options on the 40-man roster are Eric Wagaman, who debuted as a 27-year-old rookie in September, and former second-round pick Kyren Paris, who struggled immensely at Double-A, Triple-A and in the majors last season. Newman will add some necessary depth and raise the team’s floor with his track record of excellent glovework.

Newman can also provide the Halos with some depth in the event that oft-injured veteran Anthony Rendon again requires an absence of length. Newman has been better suited at the middle infield spots than at third base, but the Halos could shift Luis Rengifo to the hot corner if Rendon misses time and plug Newman in at second in his place.

While Newman doesn’t have a strong track record at the plate, he’s settled into a fairly specific range in terms of offensive output over the past three seasons. His 2024 output is a good approximation of what to expect. Dating back to 2022, he’s a .270/.313/.371 hitter in 873 plate appearances. It’s about 14% worse than average, by measure of wRC+, but when coupled with plus defense and above-average baserunning skills it’s enough to make Newman a useful role player who can help any club that’s short on infield depth — a description that currently fits the Angels to a tee.

Will Sammon and Sam Blum of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Newman were nearing a deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed there was an agreement in place. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported the salary breakdown.

Giants Hire Randy Winn As VP Of Player Development

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The Giants announced on Thursday that they’ve hired Randy Winn as their vice president of player development. The longtime outfielder played for the Giants between 2005-09 and has been involved with the organization in a few different roles since retiring. Farm director Kyle Haines will remain in his current position, according to Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic.

Winn had a lengthy and successful run as a player. He appeared in 13 seasons between 1998-2010 and suited up for five teams. He made an All-Star team as a member of the Devil Rays in 2002 and spent a few years with the Mariners before landing in San Francisco. A switch-hitting outfielder, he finished his playing days with a .284 average and 110 home runs.

Since retiring, Winn has worked as an analyst with NBC Sports Bay Area. He spent a few seasons coaching outfielders throughout the Giants organization and spent a year in the pro scouting department. He was briefly teammates with president of baseball operations Buster Posey in ’09 and has surely maintained a relationship with the franchise icon over the past decade.

Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports that Posey initially suggested that Winn interview for the general manager position that represented the #2 role in the front office. It’s unclear if that wound up happening before the Giants tabbed Zack Minasian, himself a mainstay in San Francisco’s scouting ranks. Conversations were productive enough that Winn comes on board in a fairly significant role. Giants fans will want to check out Pavlovic’s piece, as he speaks with Winn about the job and his vision for player development more broadly.

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