Cubs, Carson Kelly Nearing A Deal

The Cubs are reportedly progressing toward a contract with free agent catcher Carson Kelly, according to both Robert Murray of FanSided and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers confirmed their reports, describing an agreement between the two sides as “close.” The Cubs have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will be necessary before they finalize the deal.

Kelly, 30, is coming off a bounceback season with the Tigers and Rangers. Once a promising young catcher for the Diamondbacks, he fell out of favor in the organization with his poor performance at the plate in 2022 and ’23. They released him in August 2023 with close to $1MM remaining on his contract. The Tigers quickly scooped him up, and after the season, they picked up his $3.5MM option for 2024.

That proved to be the right decision. Kelly turned in a strong season at the plate and in the field, allowing the Tigers to flip him to the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline. While he didn’t play quite as well in Texas as he had in Detroit, he finished the season with a perfectly respectable batting line (.238/.313/.374, 99 wRC+) and strong defensive metrics. All told, he produced 1.8 FanGraphs WAR in just 91 games and 313 trips to the plate. For the sake of comparison, Cubs catchers combined for -0.1 fWAR this past season.

Chicago has struggled behind the dish since letting Willson Contreras walk after the 2022 campaign. In 2024, Cubs catchers ranked third-last in the NL in Fielding Run Value (per Baseball Savant) and second-last in OPS and wRC+. According to FanGraphs WAR, no NL club received less production from the catcher position. Needless to say, the front office is aware of these shortcomings. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer failed in his efforts to add a backstop at the trade deadline, but The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported after the deadline that Hoyer would continue to pursue catching during the offseason.

Ideally, that would mean a starting-caliber catcher to usurp the incumbent Miguel Amaya. Sharma noted back in August that the Cubs see Amaya as a backup in the long run. Funnily enough, Amaya happened to hit quite well from the day that report came out to the end of the season (.770 OPS, 114 wRC+ in 34 games), but his career numbers speak much louder than that small sample size performance. He has a .657 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 170 career games. His defense has been passable, but not enough to make up for a well-below-average bat. All that to say, the Cubs needed an upgrade.

However, the market for free agent catchers moved quickly this offseason, to the point where Chicago’s options started to look slim. Kelly is one of the few catchers still available who should be an upgrade over Amaya. Indeed, Kelly might be the only everyday catcher left on the market, depending on how you feel about Yasmani Grandal and Elias Díaz (and how much you’re willing to stretch the definition of an “everyday” catcher). Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez are already off the board.

Matt Thaiss, who the Cubs acquired from the Angels earlier this offseason, is nothing more than another potential backup. With Kelly taking the majority of the reps behind the dish, Thaiss and Amaya will presumably compete for a bench role in 2025. Both are out of minor league options, so one will likely be traded or DFA’d at some point before Opening Day. Amaya has been the more productive player over the last two seasons, providing a similar level of offense and significantly better defense. However, Thaiss could have a leg up as a left-handed batter; Kelly bats right-handed, so the Cubs might like a lefty-batting backup. What’s more, the Cubs might prefer to DFA Amaya, who doesn’t have the necessary MLB service time to reject an outright assignment should he pass through waivers.