By Tim Dierkes | at
Our free agent prediction contest leaderboard is now available! Three of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed: Nick Martinez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Blake Snell. Over 4,300 people entered the contest, and six have jumped out to an early lead by guessing all three pitchers’ destinations correctly.
If you’re looking for the leaderboard later, it can be found under the Tools menu for desktop users and under the Flame menu for mobile web users.
By Steve Adams | at
The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training.
Cabrera, 28, has spent his career to date with the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The hard-throwing southpaw turned in 62 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA for Toronto in 2024 but did so with a below-average 18.5% strikeout rate and bloated 10.7% walk rate. Command has consistently been an issue for Cabrera, who’s never walked fewer than 10% of his opponents in a single season.
Even with clear sub-par command, however, Cabrera has typically remained effective. He carries a 3.89 ERA in 275 2/3 big league innings and has often found himself in leverage spots, compiling 67 holds and five saves to this point. His 2024 season in Toronto featured a career-low average velocity on his four-seamer (95.9 mph), though his 96 mph average sinker was up slightly from his 2022-23 levels (but down from a 97.7 mph peak). Last year’s strikeout rate was the second-worst of his career.
The track record and velocity with Cabrera are both intriguing, even if his command has always been poor and his 2024 had some notable red flags. There’s no risk for the Mets to bring him to camp as a non-roster player and see if he pitches his way into a bullpen spot. At the moment, the only left-handed reliever on the Mets’ 40-man roster is Danny Young, so there’s certainly room to add some depth and possibly some additional certainty in that regard as the offseason progresses.
By Steve Adams | at
While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.
Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.
Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.
It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.
Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.
To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.
Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.
It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.
By Darragh McDonald | at
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By Nick Deeds | at
On the heels of last night’s surprise signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Snell switches sides in Dodgers-Giants rivalry:
The first top-of-the-market domino fell last night when the Dodgers and left-hander Blake Snell agreed to a five-year, $182MM deal that includes deferred money that drops the net present value of the deal to the $160-165MM range. It’s the southpaw’s latest stop in what has become a tour of California in recent years. After winning the NL Cy Young award for San Diego in 2023, Snell found a disappointing market in free agency and ultimately settled for a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants last winter. That contract, of course, included an opt-out this winter. The lefty dealt with injuries and struggled early in the season but was baseball’s best pitcher from July onward, prompting him to opt out and again test his fortunes.
With a deal for a front-of-the-rotation arm now in the books, what’s next for L.A. this winter? The outfield seems likely to be the next order of business in L.A. with Mookie Betts poised to return to the infield in 2025, leaving Andy Pages as the only full-time outfielder who currently figures to be on the club’s Opening Day roster (although Tommy Edman could very well be the club’s regular center fielder with Betts back in the infield). The club is known to be involved on at least some level in the Juan Soto bidding, and there’s mutual interest in a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez. Reuniting with longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw once again appears to be on the docket, as does upgrading a bullpen that saw right-hander Daniel Hudson and fellow righty Blake Treinen become a free agent earlier this month.
2. Will any other major players sign early?
Between Snell’s deal last night and the pact between Anaheim and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi that broke on Monday morning, the hot stove has picked up in a hurry this week. Thanksgiving could slow the momentum a bit when it arrives tomorrow, but at this point it would hardly be a surprise if a few more significant pieces came off the board before executives arrive in Dallas for the Winter Meetings in the evening on December 8. The deals for Snell and Kikuchi took two of the top six free agent starters off the market, so it stands to reason that the markets for Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Sean Manaea could start to heat up in the coming days as well.
It’s also possible that the market begins to thaw on offense, however. The Soto sweepstakes have dominated the headlines in that part of the market to this point in the winter, and it seems increasingly likely he’ll have landed somewhere at least by the time the Winter Meetings conclude, if not sooner.
3. Will Arenado change hands?
In the early days of the offseason, reports out of St. Louis indicated the Cardinals would be trimming payroll and taking a potential step back this winter as they focus on youth and development for the 2025 season. That led to plenty of rumors regarding the availability of three veteran players: catcher Willson Contreras, right-hander Sonny Gray, and third baseman Nolan Arenado. Contreras and Gray both appear to be reluctant to waive their no-trade clauses and depart St. Louis, with Contreras even poised to move to first base in 2025 to accommodate the Cardinals’ youth movement as catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages stand poised to take on larger roles.
Arenado, however, has at least kept an open mind to the possibility, and the Cards have explored the market for him. Given Arenado’s stellar reputation with the glove and declining numbers at the plate, it would be something of a shock if any team actually wanted him to move across the diamond to first base, but he’s reportedly open to such a move in the right setting. Will a deal come together?
By Anthony Franco | at
A trio of former big leaguers re-signed with teams in the Korea Baseball Organization this week.
By Anthony Franco | at
The Brewers are signing outfielder Jared Oliva and right-hander Jon Duplantier to minor league contracts, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Both players will get non-roster invitations to big league camp.
Oliva, who turns 29 tomorrow, got a brief big league look with the Pirates. The Arizona product appeared in 26 games for the Bucs between 2020-21. He hit .179/.220/.214 in that minimal sample. He spent the ’23 season in Triple-A with the Angels, struggling to a .261/.348/.423 slash in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Oliva dropped back a level this year, as he spent the season in Double-A after signing a minor league contract with the Mariners.
The righty-swinging Oliva posted good numbers in the Texas League. He turned in a robust .294/.378/.463 slash while going 37-40 in stolen base attempts. He’s quite a bit older than the average Double-A player, but he showed enough to earn a camp invite from Milwaukee. Oliva can play all three outfield positions and could open next season with Triple-A Nashville.
Duplantier has also been out of the majors for a few years. He earned some Top 100 fanfare during his prospect days in the Diamondbacks’ system. Duplantier has yet to find any major league success, however. The 6’4″ hurler owns a 6.70 earned run average across 49 2/3 big league innings. He last suited up at the MLB level in 2021.
The Rice product split the ’24 campaign between the Mets’ and Dodgers’ systems, along with four starts in the independent American Association. He started seven of 23 appearances in the upper minors, turning in a 4.20 ERA with a strong 27.4% strikeout rate but a massive 16.1% walk percentage over 55 2/3 innings.
By Anthony Franco | at
The Giants agreed to a minor league contract with Max Stassi, as first reported by Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton (on X) and subsequently reflected on the catcher’s MLB.com transaction log. It’s likely the Wasserman client will get a non-roster invite to big league camp.
Stassi hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2022. He started the ’23 season on the injured list with a left hip problem and was eventually transferred to the restricted list as he attended to a family matter. (The Stassis later announced that their son was born prematurely and spent weeks in intensive care.) He was traded twice last offseason, going from the Angels to the Braves to the White Sox in a chain of salary-driven moves.
The Sox intended to give Stassi a look as their backup catcher, but he reaggravated his hip injury and underwent season-ending surgery in June. Chicago paid a $500K buyout in lieu of a $7.5MM option, ending his White Sox tenure without any games. The consecutive lost seasons made it apparent he’d need to accept a minor league contract.
Stassi’s most recent healthy season was a disappointment. He hit .180/.267/.303 across 375 plate appearances in 2022. The two preceding years were far more impressive. Stassi combined for a .250/.333/.452 slash between 2020-21. He rated as an above-average receiver and looked like a late-blooming #1 catcher. The Halos signed Stassi to a $17.5MM extension in Spring Training 2022, though his numbers fell off almost immediately thereafter.
Patrick Bailey is locked in as San Francisco’s starting catcher. The backup job could be up for grabs. Tom Murphy had an injury-ruined season in year one of a two-year free agent deal. Blake Sabol is also on the 40-man roster but carries a questionable defensive profile.
By Darragh McDonald | at
The Red Sox are looking to improve their rotation this winter but it remains to be seen how exactly that will play out. They have previously been connected to top free agents such as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, as well as trade candidate Garrett Crochet.
This week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Sox actually want to of those top free agents. Sean McAdam of MassLive reports that the Sox are continuing to keep tabs on the pitching market while engaging with Juan Soto. They did have some interest in lefty Yusei Kikuchi, though it’s unclear how strong that interest was and he now has an agreement with the Angels. As for Crochet, McAdam reports that the Sox have pulled off the gas a bit there, with some unknown club getting “very aggressive” recently.
Very early in the offseason, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said the club would be looking to the “raise the ceiling” in the rotation and these pursuits all align with that goal. Burnes, Fried and Snell all have long track records of major league success, with Burnes having a Cy Young award and Snell having two of them. Fried doesn’t have the hardware but does have a 3.07 earned run average in just under 900 career innings. Crochet only just transitioned to the rotation in 2024 but did so with aplomb, posting a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate in 146 innings.
Any one of those pitchers would be a nice upgrade for Boston or any other club, though that will also make them very popular. In addition to the Sox, those pitchers have been connected to clubs like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. There are plenty of other clubs that also make sense, even if they haven’t been explicitly tied to those pitchers in rumors.
For the Sox to come away with two of those pitchers would make for quite an aggressive offseason, but that’s exactly what the club has been signaling. Both Breslow and CEO Sam Kennedy have made comments suggesting the club is planning to act boldly this winter, with Kennedy recently saying that paying the competitive balance tax is on the table. Many fans of the club will bring up last year’s “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner and how those didn’t precede much action last winter, but the club is being more specific this year. Kennedy has repeatedly said the goal is to field a club capable of winning 90 to 95 games and taking the division.
Spending money on free agents is one way they could go about accomplishing that. RosterResource projects the 2025 club for a payroll of $138MM, well below their $184MM spending from 2024, which was itself a drop from what they spent in the previous decade. RR pegs the club’s CBT number at $171MM, which is $70MM below the lowest threshold.
There’s plenty of room in there for two notable contracts, though successfully signing Soto would obviously completely change the calculus, given the expectation that he’ll sign a record-setting contract. Leaving that aside for now, big contracts for two of the big free agent starters is a feasible outcome. As part of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, each of Burnes, Fried and Snell were projected for contracts with average annual values between $26MM and $32MM. Putting two of those onto Boston’s payroll still wouldn’t even get them to the CBT line. They will presumably also make additions to the bullpen and maybe the position player group as well, but with a willingness to cross the line, all sorts of possibilities could be on the table for them.
Crochet would be far cheaper from a financial perspective, with the biggest cost coming in the form of prospect capital. Since he has spent so much of his career either working in relief or injured, he is down to two years of club control but hasn’t been able to raise his salary very high through the arbitration process. He made just $800K in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise to just $2.9MM in 2025. He would be due another raise in 2026 before he’s slated to become a free agent.
Two years of an ace-caliber pitcher for that kind of money is tremendous value, which is why Crochet figures to be very popular in trade talks. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and could certainly get a deal done if they wanted to, though it seems some mystery club has pulled ahead of them, per McAdam’s reporting.
For now, the Boston rotation projects to be fronted by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Houck had a breakout season in 2024 but may have run out of gas, as he had a 2.54 ERA in the first half and a 4.23 mark in the second. Bello and Crawford are each coming off decent but not outstanding seasons, each finishing with an ERA in the 4.35-4.50 range. Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix in 2025 but they are fairly unknown quantities right now as each underwent internal brace surgery in 2024.
Adding to that group would improve Boston’s chances in 2025 while bumping guys like Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester to depth roles, either in the minors or in the big league bullpen.
The interest in Kikuchi suggests that the Sox are also open to some of mid-market options. With Kikuchi now gone, some of the other names that could be in line for somewhat similar deals include Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and old friend Nick Pivetta.
The qualifying offer will likely be a factor, depending on who the Sox ultimately sign. Snell, Eovaldi and Flaherty were ineligible to receive a QO, Snell and Eovaldi because they had already received one and Flaherty because he was traded midseason. Burnes, Fried, Manaea and Severino rejected QOs, meaning the Sox would have to forfeit their second-best pick in next year’s draft and $500K of international bonus pool space to sign them. Pivetta rejected a QO from the Red Sox, meaning they stand to receive a compensation pick just ahead of the third round if he signs elsewhere, though they would not receive that pick if they ultimately re-sign him.
By Darragh McDonald | at
The Mariners announced their full 2025 coaching staff today. Most of the names are either holdovers from 2024 or were previously reported, though there were a couple of new names. Eric Young Jr. has been promoted to first base coach with Louis Boyd promoted to major league field coordinator.
Those two additions are part of a larger shuffle. Kristopher Negrón was the first base coach, but he will move over to third base coach. Last year’s third base coach Manny Acta will transition to bench coach. Brant Brown was the bench coach and offensive coordinator going into 2024 but he was fired back in May. Director of hitting strategy Jarret DeHart and assistant hitting coach Tommy Joseph expanded their roles to compensate for Brown’s departure, though DeHart was fired in August and Joseph recently hired away by the Orioles. Boyd is taking the role that Carson Vitale had last year, though it was reported this week that the Marlins are hiring him away. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times (X link) relayed the shuffling prior to the official announcement.
Young was with the M’s last year, working in the system as baserunning coordinator. He will continue working on baserunning but now gets promoted to the first base coach position in the big leagues, though it’s not his first time in that job at the MLB level. He was the Nationals’ first base coach for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Prior to coaching, he played in the majors from 2009 to 2018.
Boyd gets a major league coaching job for the first time. He has been in the Mariners’ organization for the past six seasons, working in the minors. Most recently, he was the minor league field coordinator for the past two seasons.
Acta has been on Seattle’s staff for many years, but has shifted around to various roles. He was third base coach in 2016 and 2017, then became the bench coach for a couple of years. He went back to the third base job from 2020 to 2024 but now returns back to the bench coach gig once again. He has worked as a coach or manager in the majors since 2006, working for the Expos, Mets, Nationals and Cleveland prior to coming to Seattle.
Negrón played in the majors from 2012 to 2019 before transitioning into coaching. The M’s hired him as the assistant to the director of player development in 2020 and he served as manager at Triple-A Tacoma in 2021. He then got promoted to first base coach at the big league level for the 2022 season.
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