Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.
Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).
Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.
Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).
It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.
Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.
Blackpink in the area
Maybe he takes a 3 year 42 million dollar deal or something like that. But he probably should accept the qualifying offer and I still think he will.
redsoxu571
At this stage, double the guaranteed money is more worth it than maximizing the year-to-year given that a year from now his stock could be down significantly. If he were younger or more established in terms of run prevention quality, I’d agree with you!
Blackpink in the area
Unless he gets hurt he can beat 2 years 21 million next offseason. And it’s not like he can’t feed his kids with 21 million if that happens. It’s a gamble of course but I would take the 21 million if I were him and hope for good health.
TheGr8One
Unless he gets hurt is precisely why he would take the lower AAV but higher total. I get what you’re saying bet on himself and he will make more. One elbow injury away from possibly not earning again.
Age 27 season maybe he bets on health
Age 32 season get paid
Blackpink in the area
It’s just 1 year. And the guy has been one of the healthiest and most durable starters in baseball the last few years.
What is really the difference between 21 and 42 million? Your grandkids might actually have to work instead of just your great grandkids?
TheGr8One
The difference is these guys don’t make 21 million and live like it’s 60k. They just like the rest of us live a lifestyle they can afford. I feel like this is a common misconception among fans like they make all that money and just save it. We like to say we would cause we’ve never had it. Now imagine your first paycheck in life was your signing bonus. That’s all the money you’ve ever known was good money. They aren’t going to appreciate it like someone who hasn’t had it so they want more of it and they certainly are spending it.
TheGr8One
And frankly 90% of the people commenting will say if they made that money they’d live cheap and save
100% of those people are lying myself included lol
KingKen
Lucas Giolito had been one of the healthiest, most durable starters in baseball for 6 straight years before last spring. How did that work out for him?
TheGr8One
Precisely. Always take the money in hand especially as a pitcher. I’d love to see the split between season ending injuries for pitchers and position players I feel that would skew hard pitcher.
Red Sox fan Eric
So its better to sign 3 year deal buy a house and know where your pitching for three years so you can raise a family and have stability. Because he’s probably getting 15 to 16 million a year in this market.
all in the suit that you wear
Eric: Agreed. Pitching is very expensive these days.
Blackpink in the area
So 3 years is stability but 1 year is not?
You are just hoping he doesn’t accept lol.
acell10
yes. 3 years provides more stability than 1 year. He’s guaranteeing he will be paid at that rate for 3 years no matter what happens vs only being paid for 1. I’m not sure why that concept is lost on you.
And the difference between 21 million and 45 million is a whopping 23 million dollars. Despite what you say it’s foolish to turn down that guaranteed money.
Blackpink in the area
It’s 24 million and like I said i think he gets 3 years 42 you said 45. Unless he gets hurt he will get more than that next year when the draft pick isn’t attached to him.
acell10
24 yes that was a typo getting hurt is a still a big risk for a pitcher entering his age 33 season
Blackpink in the area
But he’s gonna get 21 million regardless. So what is he really risking????
jbigz12
Cubs seem like an odd fit to me.
O’s or Braves on a 3/45-48 seems plausible.
Blackpink in the area
I really don’t like the fit with sny of those teams. Pivettas strength is his ability to pitch innings. Both Atlanta and the Cubs have a lot of depth they need upside more than reliability. And Baltimore needs someone better and a lefty.
I picked him going back to the Red Sox and still think thats the best fit for him.
braves25
I don’t think the Braves will sign anyone attached to the QO. They will not want to part with the draft picks.
Pete'sView
And certainly not for Pivetta.
Fever Pitch Guy
braves – You realize the Braves will be receiving draft picks for the loss of Fried, right?
If they view Pivetta as a rare opportunity to harness his K/BB talents into a potential sub-3.50 ERA pitcher at around $15M/per, they will believe the picks they give up for him are worth it.
Their window to win is NOW while they have great talent like Sale, Acuna, Ozuna, etc.
NashvilleJeff
@Fever Pitch guy: “You realize the Braves will be receiving draft picks for the loss of Fried, right?” Actually, they won’t receive “picks.” The Braves will only receive one comp pick after the 4th round. They exceeded the luxury tax for the 2nd year in a row.
Fever Pitch Guy
Jeff – You are absolutely right, I should have phrased it better. Thank you!
misterb71
The O’s should have much greater expectations than Boston’s #4 starter from last year. Suggesting that a three-year deal for Pivetta is a sure thing seems nutty to me.
jbigz12
O’s typically look for the “undervalued” guy they can work with. I think the team ultimately signs 2 SP’s this offseason. Pivetta could be one.
Eflin’s bottom line results before TB were #4 starter. Looked more like a low end 2/3 since then. Think that’s what the hope would be for Pivetta here.
Fever Pitch Guy
mister – You think he was a #4 last year?
Look at his stats from last year and this year combined, only Houck has been better.
letitbelowenstein
O’s would be the best fit, but I don’t see them at 3/48. More like 3/42.
Fever Pitch Guy
jbig – Good to finally see someone other than me suggest Braves at 3yrs/$45M.
As this link proves, I’ve been saying for a while Pivetta will a) Receive a QO if the Sox don’t intend to keep him and b) Decline the QO and c) Potentially join the Braves
mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/red-sox-issue-qualifyin…
The guy is a #2 or #3 pitcher on most teams.
1) He has the 4th-best K/9 ratio in MLB over the past 2 years (min 250 IP) which places him behind only Snell and Glasnow and Sale.
2) He’s 48th in ERA
3) He’s 53rd in IP (despite pitching some in relief)
4) He’s 50th in WAR
5) He’s 8th in Appearances
6) He’s 18th in Strikeouts
7) He’s 5th in K% behind only Glasnow, Snell, Sale and Skubal.
8) He’s 5th in K/BB% behind only Skubal, Glasnow, Sale and Ryan.
Put him on a team with a better pitching coach, better defense and better relievers, and he could finally have that breakout season with an ERA around 3.00-3.50
Rsox
Pivetta would allow the Cubs to shop the final two years and $36 million of Taillon’s contract around
Blackpink in the area
What’s the difference between Pivetta and Taillon? Not much……
Rsox
About $3-6 million per year if the contract estimates are close
Blackpink in the area
Player wise you really think one is better than the other? I am sure one will have a better season but flip a coin.
Rsox
I’d give the edge to Pivetta at this point
Blackpink in the area
Why?
Rsox
For all of the reasons Fever Pitch Guy states above
Blackpink in the area
I got that guy on mute
Joemo
I won’t believe it until I see it, for the reasons mentioned in the article.
Pivetta has always had the stuff but hasn’t been able to consistently put it together.
I could have seen a 3-4 year deal for like 15MM AAV, but he now has a QO attached and that just seems too rich for most teams.
Rsox
A 3 or 4 year deal for a guy with a draft pick attached makes more sense to me than a 1 year deal.
Red Sox fan Eric
If I’m a team like the angles who suck at drafting most years and are desperate for pitching I’d give him a 3 or 4 year deal.
johncoltrane
shields had a 5.17 era the final 3 yrs of that 4 yr deal, greinke’s era went from 1.66 to 4.37 after his deal began, and degrom has thrown a total of 41 innings in 2 seasons during his contract so far
teams beware!
CardsFan57
Biggest player mistake so far. He’d still be able to get future deals after being overpaid this year. I give Boston credit for reading him.
Acoss1331
I don’t think he’s worth 20 million per year, more like 12 or 13 AAV. Cubs don’t need a number 4 starter, they need a guy with a higher ceiling like Burnes or Fried.
rct
Also working in his favor for that is he can’t be QO’ed a second time. So he could hit the market unencumbered by draft compensation.
Fever Pitch Guy
Cards – You mean give Boston credit for reading the market.
Did you miss this line from the above article?
“Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter.”
CardsFan57
I didn’t miss it. I think it’s nonsense.
Fever Pitch Guy
Cards – Time will tell.
If it was Heyman then I’d be skeptical, but Passan has a pretty good reputation …. doesn’t he?
CardsFan57
There are at least 6 starting pitchers who will get a larger contract than Pivetta. That’s why I think it’s nonsense.
Fever Pitch Guy
Cards – What does the other 6 pitchers have to do with Pivetta?
CardsFan57
Because you posted this quote from Passan: “Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter.”
The contracts of the other pitchers will have everything to do with whether he gets one of the biggest contracts. I have no idea of why Passan wrote something that silly; but, it’s silly no matter who wrote it.
mbart33
Should take the cash
Fever Pitch Guy
bart – He will be taking the cash, probably at least $45M guaranteed with an opt-out.
Positively Half St
The Nats traded him for Papelbon. One of their worst trades.
Fever Pitch Guy
Pos – The Harper fight was well worth it though.
DarkSide830
Didn’t exactly do anything in Philly either.
xpensivewinos
Oh no! But the Red Sox need all of these mediocre guys in order to be mediocre. How can they possibly move on without him??????
TheGr8One
Red Sox played chicken with that QO and won. Questionable move becomes pretty solid if he refuses
Fever Pitch Guy
The – Nothing questionable about the move, he’s earned a contract worth at least double and will also have the security of 3 years if he injures himself next year.
Veejh
Is he nuts? Take the $21M and enter FA next year w no QO attached which will open up his market. Easy gamble.
CardsFan57
Not only that, this is shaping up to be a year that sitting out free agency while being overpaid is a good thing. Maybe the TV revenue can get straightened out a bit by next year.
Fever Pitch Guy
Cards – Two words: Opt Out
Fever Pitch Guy
Vee – Let’s say he goes to Atlanta, they fix his HR problem, he puts up a 3.25 ERA and then opts out next offseason.
How is that NOT a good scenario for him?
CardsFan57
You guys are funny thinking he’s going to be dictating contract terms.
NashvilleJeff
@Fever Pitch Guy: The Braves haven’t given a single FA under AA an opt out. Why would you think they’d do that for Pivetta?
Fever Pitch Guy
Jeff – Because if the Braves want him bad enough and he checks off everything else they value in a free agent, they will bite the bullet.
The Braves window is now, if they feel they can fix Nick’s HR issue and have him at just $15M annually for at least one year, I think they do that deal.
Part of having a great front office is not being very rigid, and the Braves have a great front office.
jbigz12
Pivetta’s probably not getting an opt out from ATL. Probably not getting a year 1 opt out anywhere unless he works something out with Boston where they get him for less than the QO in year 1.
He’s not a pitcher in his current form that you’re going to want to pay market value, give up a pick & international cash, and have him walk after year 1. I think whatever deal he signs will lock him in for at least 2 seasons.
A Blake Snell is different. You’d pay that for him but the QO makes that highly unlikely that Pivetta is given that opportunity.
jbigz12
Particularly for ATL who builds through the draft. A 2nd/5th and $1MM of international cash seems highly unlikely to me for a year of Pivetta.
I think they’d go elsewhere unless Pivetta does something to make it a less likely opt out/Braves get a bargain if he does opt out. Where he takes $8MM in year 1 with a salary of $19MM for the next 2 years. The Braves might have interest in that structure since they’ve been pushing out payroll. But I doubt Pivetta is looking for that kind of deal.
all in the suit that you wear
If the Braves or a team that paid luxury tax were to sign a free agent that rejected a QO and then sign Pivetta, it might be more palatable. The draft pick lost would be lower.
jbigz12
Basically punting the draft if you sign two QO’s as a luxury tax payer. That’s a lot of picks eliminated.
Nuschler
I think he accepts the QO because I believe very few teams would be willing to forfeit draft picks to sign him.
MLB-1971
Nuschler – IMO, Pivetta accepts the QO as most MLB teams will not want to give up a pick for a #4 rotation pitcher. The Red Sox can definitely use him back then trade Kutter Crawford (183 2/3 inning, 4.36 ERA, and very solid 1.12 WHIP in 2024), Abreu (Gold Glove winner), and prospect for a pitcher with more upside.
Fever Pitch Guy
Nusch – Do you know the penalty for signing a QO varies based on many different situations?
Teams that are in GFIN mode don’t care about 3rd round draft picks.
The goal is to win a WS, not accumulate draft picks.
carlos15
He needs to take the QO. No one is gonna give up picks and big money for this guy at his age. He’s the definition of average. I can see him get 2/25 3/36 which at that point he’s better off taking the gamble and re-entering the market a year later
Fever Pitch Guy
carlos – You are aware he’s been fielding offers, right?
Do you think he’d be declining the QO if he wasn’t receiving much better offers already?
MLB-1971
Carlos – agreed. If Pivetta takes the QO, he receives $21 million in 2025. Even if the 2 year offer is 2/$30, he would only need to exceed 1 year $9 million in 2026 or if 3/$45, a 2/$24 million next offseason with no QO. It is a little hard to imagine a 3 year $45 million for Pivetta and loosing a draft pick.
showmebb
I would be hesitant to give out a significant multi-year deal to a homer-prone pitcher. Flaherty gives up too many as well.
Fever Pitch Guy
show – Did you know Nola gave up more HR this year than Pivetta?
Anyone gonna turn down signing him to a multi-year?
And $45M/3 is hardly “significant” for a SP who is as durable and versatile with elite K/BB numbers as Pivetta is.
tigerdoc616
Age 32 season and gives up a lot of HR’s? That seems like a recipe for a much shorter deal than 3 years, especially now with a QO attached to him. IF he rejects it he would be more of a candidate for revenue sharing recipient teams who only would give up at best their 3rd pick.
The biggest tr0ll
I don’t mind if he leaves. He’s solid and durable but that’s all he is. Nothing better than a 4.00 ERA/FIP overall.
I dont think he will get more money on the market, at least not 20 a year
RunDMC
“Once again, things that could have been brought to my attention YESTERDAY!”
Fever Pitch Guy
Run – I did my best, honest!!! I’ve been saying Pivetta to the Braves for a while. He’d be a perfect fit, and his BFF Sale is lobbying for him.
LordD99
He should have accepted it.
highflyballintorightfield
Well crap. Looks like I’m 0 for 1 already.
Fever Pitch Guy
high – The Red Sox could still sign him to a multi-year deal … but then of course they’d lose the compensation.
MacGromit
no downside to his agent leaking that he’s “unlikely” to take the QO. that keeps the window open for desperate clubs to overpay him. if he doesn’t hear great offers that could give him multiple guaranteed years even with a lower AAV… then he takes the QO before that deadline.
I really hope the O’s don’t choose Nick as the pitcher they will give a multi-year contract to. “Aim High” like the Air Force, Baltimore.
MacGromit
So the deadline is in one week, Nov 19th @ 4pm. I’d think that he’ll head back to Fenway.
Fever Pitch Guy
Mac – What is your reasoning there?
Wouldn’t his agent be INCREASING the offers from other clubs by making them believe he is tempted to take the QO?
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
Didn’t we all know this already? Why would he accept the qualifying offer at age 32 while still pretty productive?
He can get 3 and 40 or 45 pretty easily I would think. This is not news. In fact it’s exactly why the Red Sox offered him the QO in the first place LOL, one more free draft pick.
Fever Pitch Guy
Gary – Another voice of reason, thank you!! I was wondering what the hell all these other people were thinking. LOL
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
This time, lol. Tomorrow I won’t know what I’m talking about again. And that happens more often than I like. I need to be right more often.
Fever Pitch Guy
Gary – It’s all about having fun. Talking baseball gets me through the winter, 3 months until ST.
Greensoxbaseball
He’s looking for something like 3/45 or more
Know’s this could be his only chance for a “monster” payday before his arm falls off
Mikenmn
Take the QO. Many of the teams who might be willing to spend on a pitcher of his level would be giving up picks and international money. They may not be willing to big aggressively
bcjd
He could have gotten $45m/3 without a QO, but the loss of a draft pick makes me think $35m/3 is more likely. I think he’s made a mistake rejecting the QO. But I’m sure his agent has talked to teams and has better info than I do.
Rsox
I would rather see him go to the Cubs than the Orioles or Braves. The Braves because Chris Sale was finally healthy and probably wins the NL Cy Young award and it would suck to see Pivetta put it all together there, and the Orioles because I’d rather he leave the division and not have to face him 3 or 4 times per season
RickEO
Sox are spending a ton this offseason. Bank on that
spirit of truth
Hell no. Keep this guy away from the Orioles.
bravesfan
This seems incredibly stupid of him. He was projected to get somewhere in the ballpark of roughly 3 years 45 mil without the QO attached. Now that the QO make him even less attractive, u got to think the AAV is gonna get weaker. Even if it isn’t, the QO gets him almost half that money after 1 year. You telling me that he can’t sign at least a 2 year 24 mil contract after next season? Of course he can. Take the QO, that’s no brainer money, take an insurance policy out on your arms. If u get injured after next season, u get the policy money, make a come back and still have a realistic shot at $12 mil AAV
DarkSide830
absurd
Mantle536
Steve Adams noted that “In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later . . .”
It was a horrible oversight on Steve’s part to NOT note that 3 of those 4 signings have been DISASTERS.
Oddly enough, given the length of his contract, Zack Greinke’s six year deal was the only one that didn’t Mostly Suck!
Look at the Jacob deGrom five year deal. After years 1 & 2, deGrom started a TOTAL of 9 Games & 41 IP..
I don’t feel a bit sorry for the Rangers. They gave a 35-year-old INJURY-PRONE pitcher five years & $185MM. Only an idiot couldn’t see that that deal would be a disaster,
deGrom was a BELOVED HERO in NYC, prior to signing with Texas, and even Mets’ fans were like, HELL NO! to matching that stupid deal, so it’s historical that Texas was Dumb Enough to do that deal.
So, Texas has paid deGrom $74 Million for 9 starts or more than $8,222,000 start, and he only won 2 of those starts (2-0, whoopee!).
Nosferatu Zodd
Is the state of pitching this bad? On a good team he is a 5th/swing. 50M is threshold for QO penalties I believe. Still this guy getting 2/25 would be my guest.
MLBTR needs to hire editors
Geez, Adams is an awful writer. “Solid as Pivetta is” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out at the start of the sentence. It isn’t optional, and neither is correct grammar for a professional writer who works for MLBTR.
Sox67
Glad he declined
Wasn’t worth 21 mil a year
He only got paid 7 mil last year
That’s a huge pay increase for any maybe 5th starter who can’t get under 4 era
He’s either a hot starter or cold
Every start is like holding your breath and see who they get tonight. That’s not worth 21m