Archives for September 2024

MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free agent class continues with a look at the starting pitching market. It’s a deep group headlined by multiple former Cy Young winners and a “second tier” of front-of-the-rotation arms who are likely to command nine-figure deals.

Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on September 25. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year are included.

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Former Cy Young Winners in Their Prime

Corbin Burnes (30)

Burnes will likely command the largest contract of any pitcher in the class. He’s two years younger than Blake Snell, healthier than Max Fried and has the best recent track record of any pitcher on this year’s market. Dating back to 2020, Burnes touts a 2.88 ERA in 811 2/3 innings. He’s currently working on his fourth sub-3.00 ERA during that five-year span and his third straight season of 32 or more starts (four straight years with 28+ starts).

Burnes isn’t without his red flags. He’s nowhere near the strikeout machine he was earlier in his career. This year’s 22.4% strikeout rate is only narrowly north of the 22% league average for starting pitchers. He’s not homer-prone, averaging exactly one big fly per nine innings pitched, but that’s still a marked increase over the 0.36 HR/9 he averaged in 2020-21 — when he was still punching out 36% of his opponents.

That said, Burnes is throwing harder than ever, sporting career-high average velocities on both his cutter (95.3 mph) and sinker (97 mph), per Statcast. He’s avoiding hard contact and free passes alike, sitting on a 6.1% walk rate that would give him a better-than-average rate in three of the past four seasons. Burnes doesn’t look as overpowering as he did in his Cy Young season, but he’s still a durable workhorse and one of the ten or so best pitchers in the sport. In the past decade, there have only been nine free-agent deals of six years or more for a pitcher beginning in his age-30 season or later. Burnes will very likely become the tenth as he and agent Scott Boras aim for a $200MM+ deal. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Orioles.

Blake Snell (32)

Snell didn’t land the $200MM+ he was seeking last year, with skeptics surely wary of his sky-high walk rate and his relatively up-and-down history. His two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants contains an opt out that’ll let him reenter the market, however. Early this season, that clause looked like a non-factor. Snell missed most of spring training while his free agency lingered, was rocked for 15 runs in 11 2/3 innings through his first three starts, and went on the injured list with an adductor strain. He returned in late May, served up another 10 runs in 12 innings, and went back on the 15-day IL.

A bit more than a month later, Snell not only returned from the injured list — he returned to form. And then some. With the adductor injury behind him and the rust of a missed spring training shaken off, Snell looks better than ever. He no-hit the Reds in Cincinnati on Aug. 2 and has recorded double-digit strikeouts five times, including a career-high 15 punches against the Rockies on July 27. Snell has rattled off 80 1/3 innings of 1.23 ERA ball and worked six-plus innings in 10 of 14 starts since returning. He’s whiffed 38.1% of his opponents in that time against a 10% walk rate that’s still higher than average but worlds better than the 13.4% mark he posted in 2023.

Snell is arguably the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. The early struggles now look like anomaly. Snell has a 2.82 ERA over the past three seasons now (2.57 since Opening Day 2023), and he’s whiffed 32.4% of his opponents in that time. He’s been too dominant to be limited to a short-term deal this time around, unless he simply prefers the high-AAV, opt-out gambit. He should get the big contract that eluded him last winter. He’s unlikely to command $200MM, but a five- or six-year deal with a premium AAV should be on the table, especially since he cannot be issued a second qualifying offer after receiving one last winter.

Other Potential No. 1 Starters

Jack Flaherty (29)

After several seasons marred by injuries, Flaherty enjoyed a mostly healthy season in 2023 — just in time for free agency. His 4.99 ERA between the Cardinals and Orioles was hardly appealing, but he hit the market as a 28-year-old former top prospect who, earlier in his career, looked to be emerging as one of the NL’s better young arms. Flaherty bet on himself with a one-year deal in Detroit, and he now looks very much like that budding ace we saw back in 2019 and in the healthy portion of his 2021 season. In 162 innings, Flaherty has turned in a 3.17 ERA with a terrific 29.9% strikeout rate and very strong 5.9% walk rate. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch with a 6.43 ERA over his past three starts, but that’s only 14 innings.

The Tigers traded Flaherty to the Dodgers prior to the deadline, thus rendering him ineligible for a qualifying offer. There was some concern about the health of his back, but he’s made every start since that swap and carries a sharp 3.58 ERA with Los Angeles. If his struggles continue into the postseason and/or he misses a start due to back discomfort, his health could become a larger issue in free agency. As it stands though, he’s heading back to the open market ahead of his age-29 season and coming off a terrific all-around season. His age will give him a chance at landing a six-year deal, and even on five years he’s pitched well enough for an AAV that’d push him north of $100MM.

Max Fried (31)

Fried — Flaherty’s high school teammate — hasn’t had his best season, but he’s picked up the pace at the right time, rattling off seven starts and 44 innings of 2.86 ERA ball dating back to late August. That’s dropped his season-long ERA to a quality 3.42 mark. It’s not quite the same standard we’ve come to expect from Fried, who posted a combined 2.66 earned run average from 2020-23, but when your “down” season is a 3.42 in 165 2/3 innings, you’re in strong position for free agency.

Fried hasn’t been ultra-durable, never topping 30 starts or reaching 190 innings in a season, but he’s been consistently excellent since establishing himself in Atlanta’s rotation back in 2019. He’s given the Braves 816 frames of 3.09 ERA ball in that time, with his only real long-term injury coming last season, when he missed nearly three months with a left forearm strain. That same forearm sent him back to the shelf for two weeks in 2024, this time for neuritis (inflammation of a nerve). There could be some trepidation regarding that forearm in free agency, but Fried is a borderline ace with a pair of All-Star nods, two top-five Cy Young finishes and even three Gold Gloves. Only five pitchers in the past decade have scored a six-year deal in free agency as they head into their age-31 season, but Fried has a good chance to add to the list. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer.

Mid-Rotation Arms

Matthew Boyd (34)

Boyd has come roaring back from 2023 Tommy John surgery, stepping up in a big way for the AL Central-champion Guardians. He’s made eight starts since coming off the injured list and snapped off a 2.72 ERA with a big 27.7% strikeout rate and strong 7.8% walk rate. The injury bug has been a constant thorn in Boyd’s side, as he hasn’t made a full season of starts since taking the mound 12 times in the truncated 2020 season. The last time Boyd pitched more than 15 games in a season was back in 2019. Boyd has long shown the ability to miss bats and limit his walks. He has, at times, appeared on the cusp of breaking out as a big-name pitcher. He’s back at that precipice again, and while his age and injury history are going to limit the length of his contract, he could still secure a two- or three-year pact on the back of his outstanding rebound.

Andrew Heaney (34)

Like Boyd, Heaney at multiple points early in his career appeared primed for a breakout. It never happened with the Angels, as he was oft-injured and inconsistent when healthy. Heaney landed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal in his first foray into free agency and parlayed a big showing in another injury-shortened campaign into two years with the Rangers. He’ll return to the market as a more solidified starter, having tossed 303 1/3 innings of 4.06 ERA ball over the past two seasons (including a 3.98 mark this year). Add in his brilliant half season in L.A., and Heaney can sell teams on 376 innings of 3.88 ERA ball with strong strikeout and walk rates (25.7% and 7.4%, respectively). Another multi-year deal should be there.

Yusei Kikuchi (34)

Clearly talented but lacking consistency, Kikuchi may have finally found a recipe for success after being traded to Houston. The Astros have more than doubled his slider usage and reduced his curveball to a seldom-used change-of-pace offering. He’s annihilated opponents since the trade, spouting off 60 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 31.8% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. Kikuchi is still sporting a heater that averages better than 95 mph, and he’s now missing bats and eschewing walks at career-best rates. His age won’t help his case in free agency, but the trade ensures that he can’t be hit with a qualifying offer. He’s wrapping up a three-year, $36MM deal right now that was signed largely based on potential and upside. He could find a larger three-year deal this time around now that he’s manifested that upside into high-end results.

Nick Pivetta (32)

Pivetta misses bats at plus rates and has improved his command considerably in recent seasons, placing him among the league leaders in K-BB% since 2023. Excellent as his rate stats are, however, they’re frequently undercut by his penchant for serving up home runs. Pivetta is among the most homer-prone starters in the sport, with a career 1.54 HR/9 mark and a whopping 1.81 homers per nine frames this season. Metrics like SIERA and xFIP, which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, frequently peg Pivetta in the mid-3.00s despite his earned run average regularly clocking into the mid-4.00s. It’s still likely that teams will be tantalized by his K-BB profile, however, and also by his durability. Pivetta missed a month earlier this season with a minor flexor strain, but that’s the only time he’s been on the big league injured list (outside a pair of stints on the Covid-related injured list a few years back). He’s a candidate for a two- or three-year deal, especially for clubs that play in pitcher-friendly parks.

Luis Severino (31)

Injuries ruined Severino’s final few years in the Bronx — but not in New York. He signed a one-year pact with the Mets last offseason as has proven to be one of the best short-term pickups for any club. Severino’s average fastball is down from its 97.7 mph peak but still sitting at a healthy 96.3 mph. He’s chewed up 182 innings over 31 starts for the Amazins and turned in a sharp 3.91 ERA along the way. His formerly plus strikeout rate is now a bit below average, at 21.2%, but his 7.9% walk rate and 46% grounder rates are plenty good. He’s also inducing infield flies at the best rate of his career, and his career-high 23 pop-ups generated this year are just as good as strikeouts. Severino has a big pedigree but hasn’t seen his results return to the ace-level form he displayed in 2017-18. He’s a qualifying offer candidate and could potentially even accept, but we’ve seen less-successful pitchers command strong four-year deals in recent years (e.g. Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon).

Spencer Turnbull (32)

A lat strain derailed what was shaping up as an excellent rebound campaign for Turnbull. The longtime Tigers hurler has been sidelined for two months with that injury and only pitched 31 innings from 2022-23 due to Tommy John surgery. He inked a $2MM deal with the Phils last winter and has given them 54 1/3 frames between the rotation and bullpen, notching a tidy 2.65 earned run average with a big 26.1% strikeout rate. His 9% walk rate is a bit higher than average but only by a percentage point. His velocity is down nearly two miles per hour from peak levels, but Turnbull looked impressive when healthy and could find the first multi-year deal of his career if he finishes on a healthy note. He’s on a rehab assignment right now and could factor into the postseason pitching plans.

Fourth/Fifth Starters

Chris Flexen (30)

Flexen has been on a good run since late August, logging a sub-4.00 ERA in his past eight trips to the bump. That’s still only dropped him to a 4.95 mark on the season overall. He’s cleared 160 innings with below-average strikeout and grounder rates while yielding too many homers. It’s not a great profile, but he’s having a much better season than he did in 2023, when he landed a $1.75MM guarantee from the White Sox in free agency. Perhaps they’ll give him a raise and keep him for a similar role in 2025. If not, Flexen could slot into the back of a rebuilding club’s rotation on a cheap one-year pact.

Michael Lorenzen (33)

Lorenzen is in his third year as a starter and has signed three one-year deals in his previous trips through free agency. This year’s 3.37 ERA is his best out of a rotation, but his middling strikeout and walk rates (17.8% and 11.4%), coupled with his age, are going to limit interest to an extent. He could still land a two-year deal, and even if he takes another one-year pact, he should still get a raise on this year’s $4MM guarantee.

Frankie Montas (32)

Montas was dominant for the 2021 A’s and has been mediocre since, due in no small part to shoulder surgery that wiped out nearly all of his 2023 season. His one-year deal with the Reds (who eventually traded him to the Brewers) has produced lackluster results. Montas’ 4.85 ERA isn’t much to look at, but he’s at least proven to be healthy (29 starts, 146 2/3 innings). He’s also seen a velocity spike and uptick in swinging strikes since being traded to Milwaukee, but it still feels like he’s probably looking at another one-year deal.

Martin Perez (34)

Perez is eating innings one five-inning start at a time. He posted bleak numbers with the Pirates but has flourished since a trade to the Padres, for whom he’s made nine starts and notched a 2.61 ERA. Perez’s strikeout and walk rates have improved as San Diego more than doubled his curveball usage, but he still misses fewer bats than average. He’s a durable fifth starter who’ll likely land another one-year pact in free agency.

Joe Ross (32)

Ross missed the 2022-23 seasons due to injury but returned to the majors with Milwaukee this season and has turned in a 3.93 ERA in 71 frames. He’s split his time between the rotation and bullpen, but he showed well as a starter early in the season. He’s throwing harder than ever and still just 31 years old. His injury history probably limits him to one-year offers, but he’s a sneaky candidate to plug into a rotation on an incentive-laden deal.

Jose Urena (33)

Urena rode a minor league deal to a season-long spot on the Rangers’ staff. He’s pitched in 33 games, nine of them starts, and logged a 3.80 ERA despite a bottom-of-the-barrel 15.1% strikeout rate. He doesn’t have great command, but Urena throws hard and racks up grounders. This is his first season with an ERA under 5.00 since 2018. He could land a small one-year deal as a fifth starter or swingman.

Trevor Williams (33)

Williams was brilliant in 11 starts before a forearm strain cost him more than three months. He returned last week with five one-run innings against the Cubs. Williams has a 2.19 ERA on the year, but teams will take that with a grain of salt, given that it’s accompanied by an average strikeout rate (22.3%) and a heater that sits at 89 mph. He posted a 4.54 ERA overall in his two seasons as a National. This year’s showing might get him another two-year deal, but a soft-tossing 33-year-old coming off an injury-shortened season feels likelier to command a one-year deal.

Older Veterans

Alex Cobb (37)

Cobb’s return from hip surgery was slowed by a shoulder issue and blister troubles during his rehab process. He was traded from San Francisco to Cleveland before making his 2024 debut. The Guardians have gotten just three starts out of him due to blisters and a cracked fingernail on his pitching hand. Cobb was quite good from 2021-23. He should be able to land an incentive-laden one-year contract.

Patrick Corbin (35)

Corbin was an indispensable piece of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series run, but the final five seasons of his six-year deal have been a disaster. To his credit, he’s been durable and continued to eat up innings, even as his results have withered, which has at least helped spare the bullpen and avoid relying too heavily on untested young arms. Corbin has a 5.62 ERA this year — his fourth straight season over 5.00. He’s actually had more competitive starts than one might think, as his ERA is skewed by a handful of meltdowns (10 earned runs, eight earned runs, and a pair of seven earned run outings). He’s still looking at a one-year, innings-eater deal at best.

Charlie Morton (41)

Morton hasn’t yet indicated whether he’ll pitch again in his age-41 season. He hasn’t had his best showing in ’24, but 161 innings with a 4.08 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate that’s still better than average suggest he could have something left in the tank. He’s been back with the Braves for four years now, and if he wants to continue, another year at Truist Park makes the most sense.

Jose Quintana (36)

Quintana looked like he was running out of gas in mid-August. He’s since tossed at least six shutout frames in four of his past five outings. He’s allowed just one earned run in his past 32 frames and is now sporting a sharp 3.74 ERA on the season. His two-year deal with the Mets has been a success. He’ll hit the market in search of a similar pact but might have to settle for one year based on his age.

Max Scherzer (40)

Scherzer only made it into nine games this year after undergoing offseason back surgery. He never looked fully healthy, sitting on a career-low 92.6 mph average fastball and averaging fewer than five innings per start. The future Hall of Famer still kept his ERA just under 4.00 with solid strikeout and walk rates. If he wants to pitch in his age-40 season, he’ll surely find a one-year deal — likely with a decent base salary and plenty of incentives.

Drew Smyly (36)

Smyly has notched a 3.88 ERA in 58 innings working exclusively as a reliever this season. He’s primarily been a starter in recent years, however. The lefty’s ability to miss bats and pitch in a variety of roles should lead to a one-year deal. He’ll likely get interest both as a starter and reliever this offseason.

Ross Stripling (35)

Stripling started the season with seven good starts before being shelled for 24 runs (17 earned) in his next four starts and landing on the injured list for two months due to an elbow strain. He returned with a pair of decent starts in July, and was rolling after moving to the bullpen (one run in his first 8 1/3 relief innings). He’s since been obliterated for 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings across two relief outings. Injuries, a poor finish and an ERA north of 6.00 are going to limit the veteran swingman to a small one-year deal or even a minor league pact this winter.

Justin Verlander (42)

Shoulder and neck injuries limited Verlander to 16 starts this season, and his struggles since returning from the IL have been so pronounced — 27 runs in 27 1/3 innings — that his spot on Houston’s playoff roster is in jeopardy. Verlander has said he wants to continue pitching, and his track record will earn him another shot … just not at anywhere close to his current $43.333MM AAV.

Rebound Hopefuls

Shane Bieber (30)

Everyone knows how good the former AL Cy Young winner can be at his best. He hasn’t been there for some time. After an injury-shortened 2023 season that featured a prominent velocity dip, Bieber looked great in two starts (12 shutout innings) before requiring Tommy John surgery. He’ll be sidelined into May or June of the upcoming season in all likelihood.

Walker Buehler (30)

In his first season back from the second Tommy John procedure of his career, Buehler has delivered career-worst marks in strikeout rate (18.6%), walk rate (8.1%), average fastball velocity (95 mph), swinging-strike rate (8.2%) and HR/9 (1.91). He pitched at an ace level from 2018-21, but this version of Buehler bears little resemblance to that budding young star. He’ll likely look to follow Jack Flaherty’s lead and max out on a one-year deal in hopes of rebuilding his stock.

Anthony DeSclafani (35)

DeSclafani underwent season-ending flexor surgery before the season started. He posted a 5.16 ERA in 118 2/3 innings for the Giants in 2022-23. The 167 frames of 3.17 ERA ball with the ’21 Giants that prompted them to re-sign him for three years and $36MM feels like a distant memory. He’ll likely sign a minor league deal.

Marco Gonzales (33)

Gonzales underwent flexor surgery earlier this month — an operation that’ll sideline him for nine to twelve months. It’s not clear if he’ll pitch next season at all, but he was solid in his first five starts with the Pirates this year before getting shelled in his final two appearances and heading to the injured list.

Kyle Hendricks (35)

A mainstay with the Cubs, Hendricks has been a Cy Young finalist at his best but has labored to an ERA north of 6.00 in 2024. He’s been a bit better since June, with a 4.66 ERA in 87 innings, but the 35-year-old’s strikeout rate is at a career-low 15.7%. His walk rate, while still better than average at 7.6%, is the highest of his career. Hendricks plans to pitch next year even if the Cubs don’t re-sign him. A one-year deal or minor league pact is in his future.

Adrian Houser (32)

A quietly solid member of Milwaukee’s rotation from 2019-23, Houser was one of former Brewers president/current Mets president David Stearns’ first acquisitions with his new club. Things didn’t pan out. Houser was torched for a disastrous 8.55 ERA as a starter. He initially performed better upon a move to the ’pen but was cut loose after surrendering nine runs on five homers in a span of nine relief innings. He’s with the Orioles on a minor league deal now but didn’t pitch well in three Triple-A starts. He’ll be a minor league free agent at season’s end and look for a minor league deal this winter.

Wade Miley (38)

Miley underwent Tommy John surgery early in the season. He said at the time he was leaning toward a comeback effort once he wrapped up a yearlong rehab but would make a final determination based on how the rehab process goes and how his body feels. Miley was excellent in Milwaukee last year (3.14 ERA in 120 innings) and clearly likes it there. A reunion on a minor league deal or incentive-laden one-year pact would make some sense.

John Means (32)

Talented but snakebit, Means underwent his second UCL operation in three years back in June. He pitched just eight innings in 2022, made it back for 23 relief frames late in 2023, and pitched in only four games in 2024 before requiring that elbow surgery. When healthy, Means is a quality mid-rotation lefty, but he’s a wild card coming off such significant arm troubles and pitching only 52 1/3 innings over the past three seasons.

Michael Soroka (27)

The White Sox bought low on the once electric Soroka in hopes that he could rebound after enduring a pair of Achilles tears in addition to shoulder and elbow troubles. He was rocked for a 6.39 ERA in nine starts that saw him walk as many batters as he struck out (24 in 43 2/3 innings). Soroka has been much better in relief, with a 3.00 ERA and mammoth 37.9% strikeout rate. That might lead to interest as a reliever this offseason, but some clubs might still view him as a viable starter.

Alex Wood (34)

Wood’s one-year, $8.5MM deal with the A’s resulted in a 5.26 ERA over just nine starts. He had surgery to repair his rotator cuff in July. Wood has typically been effective when healthy (3.78 ERA in 1258 MLB innings), but that’s a major caveat for a pitcher who’s been on the injured list 11 times since the 2016 season.

Depth Arms

Chase Anderson (37)

Anderson has pitched for seven teams across the past five seasons. This year’s 5.40 ERA (in 58 1/3 innings) is his lowest mark along the way. He’ll eat innings as a fifth starter or long reliever and can get another minor league deal.

Carlos Carrasco (38)

Cookie’s return to Cleveland was a feel-good story but didn’t go as planned. He’s now posted an ERA of 5.64 or worse in three of the past four seasons. Cleveland designated him for assignment this month. He’ll need to take a minor league deal if he plans to continue pitching.

Mike Clevinger (34)

Clevinger’s return to the ChiSox lasted only four starts and 16 innings. He posted a 6.75 ERA before hitting the IL with an elbow injury and eventually undergoing season-ending surgery to replace a disc in his neck.

Domingo German (32)

The longtime Yankees hurler was rocked for 18 runs in 20 2/3 innings with the Pirates. He posted a 5.04 ERA in 75 Triple-A frames as well. German was limited to minor league offers last winter and should be again this winter, on the heels of that performance.

Brad Keller (29)

Keller has been solid in Triple-A this season but limped to a 5.44 ERA in 41 big league frames in his first year after thoracic outlet surgery. He was a solid arm in Kansas City from 2018-20 but has struggled since, ticketing him for another non-guaranteed deal.

Julio Teheran (34)

Teheran’s 2023 resurgence with the Brewers proved fleeting. He gave up four runs in 2 2/3 innings with the Mets in his lone start of the season and has been tagged for 49 runs in 49 1/3 innings pitched in Triple-A between the Orioles and Cubs organizations.

Pitchers with 2025 Club Options

Kyle Gibson (37) — $12MM option with $1MM buyout

Gibson has done exactly what he was signed to do. He’s eaten up innings and stabilized the back of the St. Louis rotation, tossing 165 2/3 innings of 4.13 ERA ball. His strikeout and walk rates are a bit worse than average, but he still gets plenty of grounders and has by all accounts emerged as a leader in the Cards’ clubhouse. It’d be a genuine surprise if his option isn’t picked up.

Merrill Kelly (36) — $7MM option with $1MM buyout

Shoulder problems have limited Kelly to a dozen starts, but he’s been sharp when healthy. With a 3.71 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate, this is an easy call at a net price of $6MM. The D-backs will pick this one up.

Lance Lynn (38) — $12MM option with $1MM buyout

A balky right knee hobbled Lynn throughout the season, but he still made 23 starts and notched a 3.84 ERA in 117 1/3 innings. The Cardinals have a pretty full rotation outlook and needs in both the lineup and bullpen. They could exercise the option and look for a trade partner, but it seems likelier that Lynn will be bought out and return to the market in search of another one-year deal.

Freddy Peralta (29) — $8MM option with $1.5MM buyout

Among the easiest calls in this slate of club options, Peralta currently has a 3.68 ERA in 32 starts and 173 2/3 innings of work. He’s set down 27.6% of his opponents on strikes and issued walks at a 9.4% clip. If his steady mid-rotation work over the years wasn’t incentive enough to pick up this option — and, for the record, it very much is — the contract contains a second club option for the 2026 season, which is also valued at $8MM.

Colin Rea (34) — $5.5MM option with $1MM buyout

As with his teammate Peralta, this is an easy call for Milwaukee. Rea has been a godsend for an injury-riddled rotation, making 26 starts (and five relief appearances) and piling up 162 innings with a 4.17 ERA, 19% strikeout rate and excellent 5.9% walk rate. At a net $4.5MM price point, the Brewers shouldn’t have to think long about exercising his option.

Player Options and Opt-Out Candidates

Gerrit Cole (34)

Cole presents one of the most fascinating opt-out scenarios in recent memory. He can walk away from his remaining four years and $144MM, but if he exercises his out clause, the Yankees can void his decision by tacking on an additional year at $36MM. That’d bring Cole’s contract to another five years and $180MM over his age-34 through age-38 seasons. On the heels of a typical Cole season, that might’ve seemed like an obvious call all-around. Cole, however, missed the first two-plus months with elbow inflammation and has been more good than elite (although he’s been heating up since mid-August). On the one hand, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees letting him go. On the other, five-year deals for pitchers beginning in their age-34 season or later are exceedingly rare.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently broke down Cole’s opt-out for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, examining the decision through historical precedent in an effort to determine whether there are scenarios where Cole could unexpectedly end up back on the open market. Most seem to expect Cole to remain with the Yankees, but the manner in which his season has played out makes it less of a slam dunk and will shift more focus onto his playoff performance.

Nathan Eovaldi (35)

Eovaldi reached enough innings this year to trigger a $20MM player option in his contract. He’s a Texas native, so perhaps he’d prefer to simply stay put. But if he’s open to going through the free-agent process again, he should have no trouble topping that $20MM guarantee on a new contract. Eovaldi’s last deal was for two years and $34MM. He tacked on another $4.5MM via innings incentives. The right-hander carries a 3.80 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 307 2/3 innings during his two years as a Ranger. He can’t receive a qualifying offer since he received one earlier in his career. Even if he doesn’t land a $20MM AAV, he could command a similar total guarantee to his last deal.

Lucas Giolito (30)

Giolito has a $19MM player option. He won’t turn it down after undergoing UCL surgery before the season even began.

Clayton Kershaw (37)

Kershaw is still “weeks” from returning. He’s pitched in only seven games and totaled 30 innings this year after undergoing shoulder surgery following the 2023 campaign. His player option has a $5MM base salary.

Sean Manaea (33)

Manaea has been unstoppable since early this summer. He’s sporting a sub-3.00 ERA over his past 19 starts, including a 2.63 mark with a masterful 30.3% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in his past 11 trips to the mound. He’s been the Mets’ best pitcher this season. There’s no way he’ll simply exercise his $13.5MM player option. Manaea will reject that and at the very least consider a more enticing qualifying offer. He’s pitched well enough that he could decline that QO in search of a three-year deal, though, perhaps along the lines of the $63MM pact his former teammate Chris Bassitt signed a couple offseasons ago.

Nick Martinez (34)

Martinez has pitched too well for the Reds to give much consideration to exercising his $12MM player option. He’s spoken highly of his time in the Reds organization and would welcome a return, though in saying as much he implied that it’d have to be on a new deal because of his out clause. “If what I want lines up here, and I think it does … there’s a more delicate issue that I think needs to be talked about,” Martinez told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took an in-depth look at Martinez’s looming opt-out clause for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. He should at least have another two-year deal out there, if not a three-year offer.

Jordan Montgomery (32)

Montgomery has a $25MM player option and will be exercising that after limping to a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings during an injury-marred debut campaign with the D-backs.

Robbie Ray (33)

Ray can opt out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal, but it’d be a surprise if he did so on the heels of a Tommy John return effort that has seen him make just seven starts (4.70 ERA in 30 2/3 innings). A hamstring strain sent Ray back to the injured list early this month. He’s hoping to make one final start this weekend. The former AL Cy Young winner is ultra-talented, but he’s not topping $50MM in free agency this winter.

Michael Wacha (33)

After taking three straight one-year deals in his first three trips through free agency, Wacha has now begun to play the opt-out game. His four-year deal with the Padres and current two-year deal with the Royals both contained out clauses after the first season. Last year’s opt-out was an easy call after he pitched 134 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball. He has a nominally tougher call this time around, with a weightier $16MM player option looming, but Wacha will still very likely opt out in search of another multi-year deal (perhaps with another opt-out). He’s racked up 166 2/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and plus command.