Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has just been a one-way superstar this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and hasn’t been able to pitch at all for the Dodgers. The club has long planned for him to focus on serving as the designated hitter while also rehabbing his elbow for a return to the mound in 2025, but it seems there’s a possibility of Ohtani at least doing some pitching in October. Manager Dave Roberts said in recent days that there’s a non-zero chance Ohtani pitches in the postseason, a situation that Bill Plunkett examined yesterday for the Orange County Register.
As noted by Plunkett, Ohtani has been gradually building the intensity of his throwing program throughout the year. He recently progressed to mound work and has thrown from the hill six times now, with his most recent session getting to 25 pitches and a velocity of 93 miles per hour. The next step will be Ohtani facing hitters in live batting practice, which will occur in the coming weeks.
Ohtani is almost at the one-year mark from his surgery, which was announced on September 19 of last year. Generally, coming back from UCL surgeries takes a bit longer than that, but it’s not unheard of for a guy to be returning on this sort of timeline. However, pitchers undergoing the normal rehab process don’t do so while serving as elite hitters. Ohtani is pushing towards an unprecedented 50-50 season, currently at 47 homers and 48 stolen bases. His overall performance is enough that he’s strongly in the mix to be named Most Valuable Player in a few weeks, all while he’s been undergoing his throwing program in the background.
“Maybe it’s a good thing that he has the ability to disconnect, compartmentalize and go hit and do all the things he’s doing on the offensive side,” pitching coach Mark Prior said. “Where normally as pitchers, you’re kind of ingrained with the same monotony. You can kind of get bogged down in some of the – every ache, soreness; good, bad, indifferent throw. Maybe it gives him a chance to actually be free and relaxed. But it’s still pretty impressive.”
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Ohtani’s rehab is remarkable, since that seems to be how he attacks every baseball challenge that comes his way, but it’s now going to put the Dodgers in position to make a difficult choice. As noted by Plunkett, the club has always planned to shut down the throwing program during the postseason but Ohtani’s progress might open the door for them to pivot. “We’re all going to circle up, but that’s right,” Roberts said, acknowledging that conversations are going to be had about changing the plans for Ohtani. “We’ll see. We’ll see.”
What happens in the next few weeks will surely depend on multiple factors. Ohtani will have to feel good physically without any notable setbacks, while he and his reps will naturally have to be comfortable with him returning to the mound before the winter is out.
The Dodgers will also have to keep playing long enough for Ohtani to become a factor, which would presumably become more likely if they stay alive deeper into October. Whether the Dodgers would try to stretch out Ohtani or simply have him pitch shorter outings from the bullpen is unknown and perhaps something they haven’t even decided upon yet.
The rotation could certainly use the help. The club has lost River Ryan, Emmet Sheehan and Dustin May to season-ending surgeries. Tyler Glasnow is on the injured list and probably won’t make it back this year. Clayton Kershaw and Gavin Stone are also on the IL with uncertain futures. Tony Gonsolin, like Ohtani, is trying to return from a Tommy John surgery late in 2023.
For now, the rotation consists of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Landon Knack, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, with each of those guys having some question marks. Flaherty dealt with back problems while with the Tigers, enough that the Yankees reportedly balked at acquiring him prior to the deadline, which allowed the Dodgers to swoop in and get a deal done. Yamamoto missed roughly three months due to a rotator cuff strain and only just came off the IL a few days ago. Buehler and Miller both have rough results on the year. Knack has some decent numbers but in just 56 major league innings thus far in his career.
Assuming Flaherty and Yamamoto stay healthy, that gives the Dodgers a solid one-two for a playoff rotation, but things get trickier from there. If Stone, Kershaw or Gonsolin can become factors in the next few weeks, that would obviously help.
So, too, would a healthy Ohtani, but it’s perhaps too much to ask for him to be fully stretched out. The Dodgers have a good chance of securing a bye through the first playoff round. They are currently two games behind the Phillies in the National League, but two games up on the Brewers for the second bye. In the division, the Padres are the closest club to the Dodgers at 3.5 games back. But even if they do get a bye and have that extra time, it may not be enough for Ohtani to be a realistic option for a starter’s role.
It’s not totally unprecedented for a club to deploy bullpen games in the playoffs, so perhaps there’s a chance the Dodgers decide to have Ohtani working as a bulk pitcher, hitting some sort of innings or pitch count limit while multiple other pitchers help with the rest of that game. This could effectively work as a sort unofficial rehab assignment, as he gradually builds his workload throughout the club’s playoff run. This would be a more extreme version of Yamamoto’s recent return, as he came off the IL without being fully stretched out. He only made two rehab appearances of two innings each before returning to the big league club, tossing 59 pitches over four innings on Tuesday.
If the Dodgers deploy Ohtani as a straightforward reliever, he could provide some value to the bullpen and it’s something that he at least has some small amount of experience with, memorably closing out the 2023 World Baseball Classic by striking out his then-teammate with the Angels Mike Trout. Ohtani had been working as a starter earlier in the tournament but came out of the bullpen for the final game rather than starting on short rest. He also had done a bit of relief work in Japan prior to coming over to MLB.
Though his track record as a reliever is short, there’s little reason to doubt that he could provide value in the role, as starting pitchers often move to the bullpen during the postseason and serve as difference makers. There are more off-days in the playoffs compared to the regular season, allowing managers to lean on their best pitchers more often and in different shapes than they do otherwise.
Of course, the Dodgers will have to weigh any short-term benefits against any long-term risk to Ohtani’s arm. He and the club agreed to a ten-year contract, with nine seasons still to go after this one. Ohtani previously underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018, so managing his health after a second major elbow surgery will be important for the Dodgers in 2025 and beyond. On the other hand, flags fly forever and the Dodgers haven’t hoisted after a full season since 1988. Expectations for the club are sky high after a decade-plus of dominance in the regular season but playoff struggles, so there might be a significant temptation to explore all options and leave everything on the table.
There are still many unknowns in the situation and it’s possible that it will remain fluid for the next six weeks. For now, it seems Ohtani will continue throwing and then he and the club will decide how to proceed as time goes on. “Shohei’s on board with just continuing his rehab process,” Roberts said to MLB Network Radio a few days ago about Ohtani coming back in the playoffs. (X link with audio). “And I wouldn’t put it past him to have an eye on that. And we’ll just see how it plays out.”
