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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Soto, Bichette, Tigers, Cardinals

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In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.

Jason asks:

Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?

Bob asks:

I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.

I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?

No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.

I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago.  Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season.  I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has.  But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.

At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about.  After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction.  We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market.  We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.

Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age.  He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%.  So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.

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Giants Place Thairo Estrada, Taylor Rogers On Waivers

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The Giants placed second baseman Thairo Estrada and lefty relievers Taylor Rogers and Tyler Matzek on waivers, report Grant Brisbee and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. They’re the latest veteran players known to hit the waiver wire as fringe contenders attempt to offload some salary.

Estrada, Rogers and Matzek were not designated for assignment. They can continue to play for the Giants pending resolution of the waiver process. If they go unclaimed, San Francisco can (and quite likely will) simply keep them on the roster for the rest of the season. However, waivers are irrevocable. If another team places a claim on anyone, the Giants do not have the ability to rescind the placement.

Of course, the Giants wouldn’t have placed the players on waivers if they weren’t hoping another team made a claim. This is strictly a move to try to shed payroll. Estrada probably stands the best chance of the group to be claimed. He’s playing on a $4.7MM arbitration salary. There’ll be roughly $810K to be paid from tomorrow through the end of the season.

The 28-year-old Estrada is generally well regarded for his defensive acumen. Defensive Runs Saved has never been keen on his performance, but he grades very highly by Statcast’s Outs Above Average. While that hasn’t changed this year, his offense has fallen off a cliff. Estrada was an average or better hitter during his first three seasons with the Giants, combining for a .266/.320/.416 slash. He topped 20 stolen bases and drilled 14 homers apiece in 2022 and ’23.

This season, Estrada has been one of the worst hitters in the game. He sports a .216/.246/.345 line through 374 plate appearances. While that’s partially due to a career-low .245 average on balls in play, Estrada has never walked much or had particularly strong batted ball metrics. Among hitters with 300+ plate appearances, only Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall have a lower on-base percentage.

That performance makes it likely the Giants will move on from Estrada next offseason even if he sticks on the roster for the remainder of the year. He’d be due a small raise on this year’s salary, likely into the $5-6MM range. The Giants have evidently determined they were going to decline to tender him a contract, so they’ll make him available to other teams a month earlier to see if they can shed the final month of his 2024 salary.

Rogers is having a much better season than Estrada, but he’d be a far costlier pickup. The veteran southpaw is in the second season of a three-year, $33MM free agent deal. It’s a backloaded contract that pays him $12MM this year and next. He’ll be due a little more than $2MM for the final month of the season. A claiming team would also need to absorb his $12MM salary for the ’25 season. That isn’t an outlandish amount for a reliever of Rogers’ caliber but represents a hefty sum to take on via midseason waiver claim.

The 33-year-old Rogers is a former All-Star closer with the Twins. He has remained effective over his two seasons in San Francisco. After turning in a 3.83 earned run average across 51 2/3 innings a year ago, he carries a 2.45 mark in 51 1/3 frames this season. Rogers has fanned an above-average 28.2% of opponents against a solid 7.7% walk rate. He has been generally solid all year yet hasn’t pitched his way into first-year manager Bob Melvin’s circle of trust.

By measure of leverage index, Rogers has been eighth on San Francisco’s bullpen hierarchy (among relievers with at least 10 innings). That hasn’t changed throughout the season despite Rogers’ numbers. It’s understandable the Giants wouldn’t want to pay $12MM next season to a reliever whom Melvin feels is best suited in the middle innings.

Matzek is the most affordable of the trio. Acquired from the Braves as a salary offset in the Jorge Soler deadline deal, he’s playing on a $1.9MM contract. Matzek was on the injured list at the time of the trade and hasn’t thrown a pitch as a Giant. He missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Matzek returned this season before landing back on the IL in May with elbow inflammation.

The 33-year-old southpaw had a tough first month in Atlanta, giving up 11 runs over 10 frames. The Giants sent him to Triple-A on a rehab stint a couple weeks ago. He has made five appearances, allowing four runs through 4 2/3 innings. Matzek should be able to return in September, though it’s not clear if a contender is willing to plug him into their bullpen after a five-month layoff.

Matzek is due around $330K for the rest of the year. His deal contains a $5.5MM team option for next season without a buyout. That’s unlikely to be exercised by the Giants or a hypothetical claiming team.

KBO’s Kia Tigers Sign Eric Stout

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The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced this week that they’ve signed former MLB left-hander Eric Stout. He’s a temporary injury replacement for righty James Naile, who sustained a broken jaw when he was hit in the face by a comebacker off the bat of Matt Davidson (link via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News).

Stout, a 31-year-old southpaw, has 23 major league appearances under his belt. Three of them came with the Royals in 2018. The remainder were in ’22, when he combined for 20 outings between the Pirates and Cubs. Stout turned in a 5.64 ERA across 22 1/3 innings, striking out 22.7% of batters faced against an elevated 14.5% walk rate. He spent most of last year in Triple-A and signed in Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League for the ’24 season. Stout had a 2.77 ERA across 113 2/3 innings spanning 20 appearances to earn the bump to the KBO.

Naile, 31, appeared in 17 games for the Cardinals between 2022-23. While he struggled to a 7.40 earned run average, he parlayed a strong Triple-A season into a deal with the Kia Tigers. The UAB product had a 2.53 ERA with a decent 21.5% strikeout rate over 149 1/3 frames in his debut year in Korea. The jaw injury unfortunately ends his regular season, though Yoo suggests he could return in the playoffs.

Miguel Andujar Undergoes Season-Ending Core Surgery

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A’s left fielder Miguel Andujar is undergoing surgery to address a core injury, manager Mark Kotsay announced this afternoon (X link via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). Oakland placed him on the 10-day injured list when they recalled infielder Nick Allen today; the A’s can move Andujar to the 60-day IL whenever they need a 40-man roster spot.

Oakland brought in Andujar via waivers from the Pirates last offseason. They agreed to a $1.7MM salary to avoid arbitration. A meniscus repair cost him the first six weeks of the regular season. Andujar returned in late May and went on to have an alright season. He played in 70 games and hit .285/.320/.377. That’s essentially league average offensive production. His 319 plate appearances represented his highest total since his 2018 rookie campaign, when he popped 27 homers as the Yankees’ everyday third baseman to earn a runner-up finish in Rookie of the Year voting.

The righty-hitting Andujar had huge platoon splits. He mashed left-handed pitching at a .411/.459/.536 clip in 61 trips. His .256/.287/.341 showing versus righties was far less impressive. Andujar certainly won’t maintain that kind of production against southpaws over a big sample, yet he kept his strikeout rate to a meager 9.8% clip in those situations. That could be enough to get him another shot as a short side platoon bat going into next season.

Andujar surpassed five years of major league service. He’d be due a modest raise if the A’s want to keep him around for his last year of arbitration. The A’s don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for next season. Brent Rooker will be their only arbitration-eligible player of note, and he’s going through the process for the first time. Even by A’s standards, there’s ample payroll flexibility to retain Andujar if they feel he has any untapped upside at the plate.

Jorge Mateo Undergoes Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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Orioles utilityman Jorge Mateo is done for the year. Baltimore announced this evening that the speedster required a season-ending repair of the UCL in his left (non-throwing) elbow. He underwent an internal brace procedure with a repair of the flexor tendon.

Elbow ligament damage is far more common in pitchers. Mateo’s injury, of course, wasn’t sustained on a throw. While playing second base on a late July game against the Marlins, he ranged to his right to field a slow grounder up the middle. Mateo dove to try to make a backhand stop. At the same time, shortstop Gunnar Henderson moved to his left and went into a slide. Henderson rolled up on Mateo’s arm and bent his elbow back at an awkward angle.

The O’s initially announced the injury as an elbow subluxation. Mateo quickly landed on the 60-day injured list, already ruling him out into late September. He’d hoped to make a late-season return into the playoffs, but that won’t be possible. Manager Brandon Hyde expressed hope that the 29-year-old will be ready by next Opening Day (link via MLB.com’s Jake Rill).

Mateo is no longer an everyday player, but his speed and ability to play anywhere in the middle of the diamond would’ve made him a key bench piece going into the postseason. The O’s lost budding star third baseman Jordan Westburg to a hand fracture shortly after the Mateo injury; he’s out into September. Jackson Holliday is back in the majors as the everyday second baseman. The top prospect hasn’t struggled to the extent that he did during his first MLB look. Still, his .221/.280/.442 slash line since his most recent recall is below average. Westburg’s injury pushed Ramón Urías back into the lineup at the hot corner. Urías had an underwhelming start to the year but has somewhat quietly run a .273/.343/.511 line since the All-Star Break.

The O’s are carrying Emmanuel Rivera and Livan Soto as backup infielders. Neither has the speed that Mateo brings to the table. Mateo doesn’t hit for a high average or take many walks, but he has double-digit home run power and is a constant threat on the bases. He topped 30 steals in each of the last two years and was 13-15 this season. Baltimore just claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers from Miami, perhaps with an eye towards carrying him as a designated pinch-runner in October.

Mateo is heading into his final season of arbitration eligibility. He is playing this year on a $2.7MM salary and should land in the $3-4MM range if Baltimore tenders him a contract for 2025. While Mateo has seemed like a trade or non-tender candidate for the past couple offseasons, the O’s have held him for more than three years.

Nick Senzel Elects Free Agency

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Infielder Nick Senzel has elected free agency, per James Fegan of Sox Machine on X. The White Sox had designated Senzel for assignment earlier this week and it appears he cleared waivers. Since he has more than five years of service time, he has the right to elect free agency while also retaining his salary.

Senzel, 29, started the season by signing with the Nationals, a one-year deal with a $2MM guarantee. He hit .209/.303/.359 in 235 plate appearances, production that translated into an 88 wRC+. He was designated for assignment in July and the Nats simply released him, likely due to his aforementioned right to elect free agency.

He then signed a major league deal with the Sox, which didn’t lead to better results. He only got into 10 games in over a month on the roster, stepping to the plate 32 times. He produced a dismal line of .100/.129/.133 in those, dropping his season-long line to .195/.283/.331 and a 73 wRC+. When combined with his time with the Reds in previous seasons, he has slashed .232/.299/.363 for a 76 wRC+ in over 1600 career plate appearances.

He hasn’t been able to provide anything on the other side of the ball either. He came up as a third baseman but the Reds had that spot filled by Eugenio Suárez at the time and moved Senzel around to other spots. He’s now played over 2,000 major league innings in the outfield, as well as over 800 at the hot corner and a brief look at second base to this point in his career. Advanced defensive metrics have given him negative grades at all those spots.

Given that track record, any interest in Senzel at this point would be based on his previous prospect pedigree. The Reds took him second overall in the 2016 draft based on his huge numbers at Tennessee, where he hit .332/.426/.509. He then hit .314/.390/.513 in the minors over the 2016-18 period, which got him onto the top ten of most league-wide prospect lists. But the big offensive production stopped once he reached the majors in 2019.

The results have come in far below expectations thus far, but Senzel is a cheap flier for any club that still has hope of him tapping into his previous form. The Nats are still on the hook for his salary since they released him earlier this year. Any other club could sign him for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats are paying.

Fantasy Baseball: Stretch Run Prep

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Hello friends.

With September almost upon us, let's keep things going with some prep work for any championship runs in fantasy. We've taken a look the last two weeks at which teams to target when streaming pitchers, so it's time to flip over to the hitting side of things. And KISS shall be our guiding principle. No, not Gene Simmons and dem boys; I'm talking about Keeping It Simple Sucka's.

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Reds To Promote Rhett Lowder

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The Reds are going to promote pitching prospect Rhett Lowder, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic on X. The young righty will start for Cincinnati on Friday, making his major league debut. The club will need to open spots on both the active and 40-man rosters to make space for Lowder.

Lowder, now 22, was a standout during his time at Wake Forest. In his final year with the Demon Deacons, he tossed 120 1/3 innings, allowing 1.87 earned runs per nine. He struck out 38.6% of batters faced while giving out walks just 6.5% of the time. He was one of the top ranked players in the 2023 draft and the Reds took him seventh overall, the second pitcher taken after the Pirates took Paul Skenes with the first overall pick, with Lowder eventually signing and receiving a $5.7MM bonus.

The young righty didn’t make his professional debut last year, but he was still considered one of the top 100 prospects in the sport based on his college numbers and draft pedigree. Here in 2024, the Reds started him off at High-A, but his time there proved to be short. In five starts, he tossed 25 1/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.

That got him bumped to Double-A, where he made 16 starts with a 4.31 ERA but better peripherals. He had a 23.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. If it weren’t for a fairly high .333 batting average on balls in play, he would have fared better, which is why his 3.33 FIP was almost a full run better than his ERA.

Lowder then got bumped to Triple-A and made one good start there, tossing six shutout innings on Thursday last week. Though Lowder’s numbers have continued to impress, he may not have been promoted to the majors if it weren’t for the club getting devastated by injuries. In the month of August, the Reds have lost Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Christian Roa to the injured list.

Losing a bunch of arms like that would be a challenge for any club, but the Reds already had guys like Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the IL. Also, they have a double-header on Friday and just started a stretch of playing eight games in seven days. The current rotation mix involves rookie Julian Aguiar and swingmen who have been bumped into starting roles, such as Nick Martinez, Carson Spiers and Junis.

Perhaps this will just be a spot start to help the club navigate this challenging patch of the schedule. Even if Lowder stays a bit longer than one outing, the Reds will surely be keeping his rookie status intact one way or another. The club is now nine games out of a playoff spot and doesn’t have a strong chance of cracking the postseason at this point.

Lowder is already a consensus top prospect in the sport. Baseball America currently has him in the #38 slot overall. FanGraphs has him at #73, MLB Pipeline at #35 and ESPN at #55. Assuming the Reds don’t let him toss 50 innings this year, he’ll still be a rookie going into 2025 and will likely still be on those lists in some form.

That will allow the Reds to potentially take advantage of the prospect promotion incentive. To combat service time manipulation, the collective bargaining agreement awards draft picks to clubs if certain conditions are met. If the player is on two of three top 100 lists at BA, MLB Pipeline and ESPN with less than 60 days of service time, and then is promoted early enough in a season to get a full year of service, he can earn his club an extra draft pick just after the first round by either winning Rookie of the Year or finishing in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting during his pre-arbitration years.

At this point, the Reds don’t have much left to play for in 2024, so they will probably look to keep that PPI incentive on the table. But for now, they can get give Lowder a taste of big league life as they trudge through this viscous portion of the schedule. Though the club is currently in rough shape due to all those health concerns, fans can dream of a future rotation consisting of Lowder, Greene, Abbott, Lodolo and others going forward, as no one in that group is slated for free agency until after 2027.

Reds Select Evan Kravetz

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The Reds announced today that they have selected the contract of left-hander Evan Kravetz. Right-hander Casey Legumina has been optioned to Triple-A Louisville in a corresponding active roster move. To open a 40-man spot, outfielder Stuart Fairchild has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Kravetz, 27, gets the call to the show for the first time. He was selected by the Reds in the fifth round of the 2019 draft and has been climbing the minor league ladder since then. He made his professional debut with one inning in Rookie ball in his draft year, but then the minor leagues were wiped out by the pandemic in 2020.

Since then, as he’s moved towards the higher levels of the minors, he has racked up plenty of strikeouts but also given out plenty of walks. From 2021 to 2024, he has tossed 243 1/3 minor league innings, allowing 3.99 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 28% of batters faced in that time but also given out free passes at an 11.1% rate. That includes 42 1/3 Triple-A innings this year with a 3.40 ERA, 25% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate.

The Cincinnati pitching staff has been fairly snakebit of late. Each of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Christian Roa have hit the injured list this month. Jakob Junis made an emergency start yesterday and he was followed by five relievers, including Legumina. Thanks to a double-header coming up on Friday, the club is in the midst of a stretch wherein they play eight games in seven days.

The club needs all the help it can get to survive the coming week, so Kravetz has been summoned to be a part of the solution. The Reds are also reportedly calling up prospect Rhett Lowder to handle one of the two games on Friday. Both pitchers will be making their respective MLB debuts as soon as they take the mound.

Fairchild was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday due to a left thumb sprain. Evidently, the Reds don’t expect him back this year, based on this transfer. He’ll spend the rest of the season on the 60-day IL but will need to be added back onto the 40-man in the offseason, as there is no IL from five days after the World Series until the start of Spring Training.

Orioles Claim Forrest Wall, Designate Dillon Tate For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that they have claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk. He had been designated for assignment by the Marlins earlier this week. To open a 40-man roster spot for him, right-hander Dillon Tate has been designated for assignment.

Wall, 28, fits the classic speed-and-defense mold that contending clubs tend to acquire this time of season. He gives the Orioles a bench option down the stretch in September and perhaps into the postseason, if they’re willing to dedicate a roster spot to what’s effectively a pinch-running specialist and potential late-game defensive replacement.

Selected 35th overall by the Rockies in 2014, Wall has played in a pair of big league seasons, suiting up for the Braves last year and for Atlanta and Miami this season. He has only 50 MLB plate appearances under his belt, with a .311/.380/.432 slash to show for it. That’s strong production, of course, but it bears mentioning that Wall is only a .269/.355/.380 hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons; he’s not likely to sustain that small-sample big league production over a lengthier period.

Be that as it may, the Orioles won’t be counting on him to do so. Baltimore has a stout lineup as is, but Wall offers 93rd percentile sprint speed. That’ll be his carrying trait for the Orioles for however long they carry him on the roster down the stretch. We’ve seen plenty of clubs successfully employ this tactic with expanded September rosters and into the postseason in the past — the 2015 Royals and Terrance Gore come to mind. Baltimore, for all its offensive prowess, lacks this type of premium speed at the moment. Jorge Mateo is even faster than Wall, but he’s on the 60-day IL due to a subluxation in his shoulder. Cedric Mullins leads the club with 23 steals but isn’t nearly as fast as Wall.

Baltimore’s claim of Wall will bring to an end a lengthy Orioles tenure for Tate. The 30-year-old righty and former No. 4 overall draft pick came to the O’s back in 2018 as the former front office regime kicked off the rebuild that led to the development of the Orioles’ current impressive core. For several seasons, Tate was a staple in the Baltimore ’pen, but injuries have set him back.

From 2020-22, Tate pitched 158 innings with a 3.65 ERA, 19.1% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and huge 57.9% grounder rate. He looked to have solidified himself as a quality late-inning piece for manager Brandon Hyde, but a flexor strain wiped out Tate’s entire 2023 season. Since returning, he’s shown diminished velocity with lesser strikeout and grounder rates: 15.5% and 50.9%, respectively. He’s been tagged for a 4.59 ERA in 33 1/3 innings this season, although Tate sports a 2.16 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 40.4% grounder rate in 16 2/3 Triple-A innings as well.

With the trade deadline behind us, the Orioles will have no choice but to place Tate on waivers. Given his track record, modest $1.5MM salary and additional club control, it’s possible Tate will be picked up by another club. The new team would only owe Tate the prorated portion of that salary — just $250K through season’s end. A new club could also retain him for another two seasons via arbitration. While Tate entered the season with 4.048 years of MLB service, he won’t spend enough time on the big league roster this season to cross five years. As such, he’ll be controllable through the 2026 campaign if another team wishes to claim him.

In the event that Tate goes unclaimed, he’d have enough service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency. However, since he doesn’t yet have five years of service, doing so would require forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $1.5MM salary. As such, he’s likely to accept a minor league assignment if he’s not claimed. In that scenario, Tate would be eligible to become a free agent at season’s end unless he’s added back to the 40-man roster prior to that point.

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