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Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

Braves Outright J.P. Martinez

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The Braves announced that outfielder J.P. Martínez went unclaimed on outright waivers. Atlanta had designated him for assignment on Monday when they promoted Eddie Rosario. Atlanta also optioned AJ Smith-Shawver, placed Ramón Laureano on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain, recalled Dylan Lee and reinstated Brian Anderson from the IL.

Martínez has appeared in seven games this year, picking up a lone start in right field. He has two hits in 10 at-bats. Acquired from the Rangers in an offseason DFA trade, Martínez has spent the majority of the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett. Over 60 games with the Stripers, he’s hitting .244/.335/.360 with three home runs. Martínez has drawn a fair number of walks (10.9%) but gone down on strikes at an alarming 27.6% rate.

While he hasn’t had a great ’24 season, Martínez was a productive Triple-A player a year ago. He raked at a .298/.418/.543 clip with 14 homers and 38 stolen bases over 77 games with the Rangers’ top affiliate. That earned the Cuban-born outfielder 17 MLB appearances with Texas.

Martínez has never previously been outrighted and isn’t close to three years of major league service. As a result, he doesn’t have the ability to test free agency. He’ll stick in Gwinnett as non-roster outfield depth. Atlanta is likely to bring in outfield help before the July 30 deadline. With Laureano joining Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II on the injured list, their current outfield group consists of Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, Rosario, Anderson and Eli White.

MLB Finalizes 2024 Home Run Derby Participants

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Major League Baseball has finalized the eight-person field for next Monday’s Home Run Derby. The full list of participants:

Alonso and García return from last year’s event. The New York first baseman is in the event for the fifth consecutive time. Alonso won back-to-back times in 2019-21 (there was no Derby in 2020 because of the pandemic) but has successively been knocked out by Julio Rodríguez in the last two events. García was dropped by Randy Arozarena in the first round last year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the event but decided not to try to defend his title.

This year’s festivities are taking place at Arlington’s Globe Life Field. Under the collective bargaining agreement, the Derby winner will receive $1MM. The runner-up takes home $500K, while every other participant receives $150K. The player who hits the longest home run wins $100K.

This year’s event involves a few rule changes, as Buster Olney of ESPN recently wrote. The first round no longer features head-to-head matchups. The top four home run hitters will move to the second round, with the longest homer serving as a tiebreaker. MLB is also limiting hitters to 40 swings per round and is changing the bonus round from a clock to a limit of three outs (four if a player hit a 425-foot homer in the bonus round).

Dodgers Option Bobby Miller

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The Dodgers optioned Bobby Miller to Triple-A Oklahoma City this afternoon. Los Angeles recalled reliever Ricky Vanasco to step into the bullpen for the time being.

Miller was the Dodgers’ most reliable starting pitcher by the end of his rookie season. The former first-round pick and top prospect turned in a 3.76 ERA over 23 starts in his debut campaign. He entered this year as the arguable #3 arm behind offseason pickups Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Miller’s year could hardly have started any better, as he tossed six scoreless innings with a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Cardinals in his debut.

Things fell off after that. The Cubs tagged Miller for five runs without allowing him to escape the second inning during his next start. Miller came out of his third appearance with shoulder inflammation. He spent the next two months on the injured list.

The Dodgers activated Miller from the IL on June 19. He has taken the ball four times since that point with dismal results. Miller allowed five runs over 6 1/3 frames at Coors Field. He surrendered three runs over two innings to the White Sox before tossing five frames of two-run ball against the Diamondbacks. Working on a full week of rest, he hit a low point in last night’s start against the Phillies.

Philadelphia tagged Miller for nine runs on 10 hits through four innings. He gave up two home runs and has surrendered at least one longball in each of his last four outings. Miller has issued three walks in every appearance since returning and hasn’t recorded more than four strikeouts in a start. Since his reinstatement, he has allowed 19 runs across 17 1/3 innings. Miller has walked 12 while striking out nine. Opponents are hitting .338/.434/.620 with five homers in 83 plate appearances.

That’s obviously nowhere near the level the Dodgers were expecting. Miller and skipper Dave Roberts each told reporters that the pitcher is not working through any shoulder discomfort (link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Miller has lost a bit of velocity, though, sitting in the 96-97 MPH range with his fastball after averaging around 99 MPH during his season debut. It’s possible there’s something amiss mechanically, although a 96-97 MPH heater should still have plenty of life.

Pitchers must spend at least 15 days in the minors after being optioned unless they’re recalled to replace an injured player. The Dodgers can bring Miller back up on July 25. That could amount to skipping just one turn through the rotation because of next week’s All-Star festivities, but Roberts said the team doesn’t have a specific target for Miller’s return. It’s not out of the question he remains in Triple-A past the July 30 trade deadline.

Miller’s demotion is another hit to what has become a rotation in flux. The Dodgers have placed Yamamoto, Glasnow and Walker Buehler on the injured list over the past few weeks. Glasnow is dealing with what seems to be minor back tightness and should be back in short order. The timeline on Buehler (hip inflammation) and Yamamoto (rotator cuff strain) is less clear. Los Angeles could welcome Clayton Kershaw around the end of this month, but he’s coming back from offseason shoulder surgery.

Gavin Stone, James Paxton and Landon Knack now stand as the top three arms in the L.A. rotation. Lefty Justin Wrobleski made his big league debut over the weekend and will probably get another start. They’re essentially out of other healthy starters. Ardaya reported last night that righty Kyle Hurt, who might’ve been a depth option, is being shut down after experiencing elbow soreness in Triple-A. The Dodgers will probably need to deploy a bullpen game at some point this week to get to the All-Star Break.

With a 7.5 game cushion in the NL West, the Dodgers have some leeway to weather a tough few weeks on the rotation front. They still have plenty of upside for a playoff rotation that could include Glasnow, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Stone, and potentially a resurgent Buehler or Miller. There’s growing uncertainty with the group, though, which raises questions for the front office before the deadline.

The Dodgers have already reportedly made an offer for White Sox breakout lefty Garrett Crochet. Chicago turned it down, but L.A. will surely remain one of a number of teams in that mix. Crochet’s teammate Erick Fedde is also likely to be traded, as are rentals Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Under-The-Radar Bullpen Trade Candidates

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A number of relievers move every deadline season. Almost every contender could at least upgrade upon the seventh or eighth man in their bullpen. Others urgently need to bring in one or more high-leverage pieces. Teams outside the playoff picture are usually willing to field offers on their relievers, particularly on middle innings arms.

This summer's market will feature a few obvious names. Carlos Estévez and Tanner Scott are good impending free agent closers on bad teams. They're going to move. Yimi García, John Brebbia, Luis García, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, T.J. McFarland, Derek Law and Jalen Beeks are affordable rental middle relievers on clubs that are at best fringe contenders. They could each go for a mid-tier prospect. Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan and Michael Kopech -- each of whom are controllable through 2025 -- have already been the subject of trade rumors. So has A's breakout closer Mason Miller, although Oakland would need to be blown away to move him with another five years of team control.

Those are some of the more obvious options. Most teams will cast an even wider net, though, identifying a few players of interest who aren't prototypical trade candidates. There are typically a couple controllable relievers who find themselves on the move even if they weren't the subject of many pre-deadline rumors. Scott Effross and Colin Holderman fit that bill a couple years ago. Jose Cuas, Peter Strzelecki and Manuel Rodríguez were dealt at last summer's deadline.

Predicting long shot trade candidates is by definition going to lead to more misses than hits. Most of the following players will still be on their current teams come August. Yet I'll try to identify a few controllable bullpen pieces who have a small but realistic chance to be traded in the next couple weeks.

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Angels To Promote Jack Kochanowicz

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The Angels are calling up right-hander Jack Kochanowicz to start Thursday’s game, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register on X. The righty is already on the 40-man roster but will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. The Halos announced that righty Davis Daniel has been optioned to Triple-A with lefty Kenny Rosenberg recalled to take Daniel’s spot tonight. A move will be required to get Kochanowicz onto the roster tomorrow, which might just be Rosenberg getting optioned back down, depending on what happens in tonight’s contest.

Kochanowicz, 23, was a third-round pick of the Halos in the 2019 draft. He didn’t pitch in the affiliated ranks in the months following that selection and then the minors were wiped out by the pandemic in 2020, delaying his professional debut.

He has since been working his way through the system with a grounder-heavy approach. He has thrown 326 innings in the minors to this point in his career with a 5.44 earned run average. His 19.1% strikeout rate in that time is subpar but he’s limited walks to a 7% clip and has had strong ground ball rates at every stop so far. Major league average is at 42.4% this year but Kochanowicz has been between 48 and 63% at every stop of his career so far. His .317 batting average on balls in play and 61.4% strand rate are both a bit on the unlucky side, so perhaps he’ll be able to have some better results with stronger defenders behind him.

Kochanowicz was added to the Angels’ 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Baseball America and FanGraphs both currently list him as the club’s 13th-best prospect, highlighting his high-90s velocity. MLB Pipeline is a bit more bullish and has him up in the #7 slot while Keith Law of The Athletic had him in the #12 spot coming into the year.

The Angels recently lost Patrick Sandoval to season-ending surgery while guys like Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth and Zach Plesac have struggled and been optioned to Triple-A, with Daniel now in that pile as well. The rotation currently consists of Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning, José Soriano and Roansy Contreras. Kochanowicz will take the ball tomorrow, though it’s unclear if it’s just a spot start or if he’ll get a lengthy rotation audition. He still hasn’t pitched at Triple-A but the Halos will skip him over that level for now. With the All-Star break next week, they could survive with a four-man rotation for a time and call someone else up to take the fifth spot once needed.

It’s possible that the Angels will make some trades at this year’s deadline that thin out that group. The club is 37-54 and clearly in seller mode going into the deadline. Their farm system is poorly regarded, which will perhaps make it tough to contend in the seasons to come. That should leave the front office open to considering trades of players even if they have some club control beyond the current campaign. Anderson has one year left on his deal, for instance, while Canning has one year of arbitration remaining.

Some recent reporting has suggested that the club prefers to hold onto Anderson, Canning and other players with similar windows of control, though it’s possible that’s posturing for negotiation purposes. The trade deadline is July 30.

Reed Garrett To Undergo MRI On Right Elbow

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The Mets announced today that right-hander Phil Maton has been added to the active roster after he was acquired from the Rays yesterday. They also recalled left-hander Danny Young. To open spots for those two, the club optioned righty Eric Orze and placed righty Reed Garrett on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation.

It’s unknown how severe Garrett’s elbow problem is, but more information will be forthcoming. Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X, the righty complained of forearm tightness last night and is now slated for an MRI today. It’s possible that his elbow issue has led to a downturn in recent results, as DiComo points out that Garrett has had some poor results lately.

Prior to that recent slide, Garrett had been a godsend for a Mets bullpen that has been an issue all year. Through May 22, he had tossed 26 innings with just three earned runs allowed, leading to an ERA of 1.04. His 11.3% walk rate in that time was a tad high but he had a massive 40.3% strikeout rate and a solid 42% ground ball rate. For a 31-year-old that the Mets claimed off waivers from the Orioles last summer, he seemed like a tremendous find.

He has a 7.88 ERA in 16 innings since then, which is a small sample but his rate stats have also changed. His 25.6% strikeout rate in that time is still strong but a big drop from where he was before and his walk rate also ticked up to 12.8%. His velocity didn’t seem to suffer, as it’s actually ticked up as the season has gone along. His fastball averaged 95.8 miles per hour in April and ramped up each month to land at 98.3 so far in July.

Despite the recent struggles, the Mets don’t want more challenges in assembling their bullpen. The team’s relievers have a combined 4.24 ERA that’s 20th in the majors and they have been weakened as the season has gone along. Drew Smith and Brooks Raley have already gone down to season-ending surgeries while Sean Reid-Foley and Shintaro Fujinami are each on the IL with shoulder injuries.

The Mets are 45-45 and just 1.5 games back of a playoff spot. Upgrading the bullpen has reportedly been a target area for them and, as mentioned, they already acquired Maton in an attempt to bolster the group. If Garrett needs to miss any time, it would only increase the amount of work the front office will need to do in patching together the bullpen.

For Garrett personally, it would be a significant blow if he ends up needing to miss any notable stretch of time. He has bounced around the baseball world as he has struggled to establish himself, spending time with the Rangers, Tigers, Nationals, Orioles and with the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Earlier this year, his utter dominance seemed to the start of a late-bloomer breakout but then the results tapered off and now he’ll have to see what the MRI machine finds in his elbow.

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Cardinals, Verdugo, Chisholm

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In this week's mailbag, I get into a possible extension for Tarik Skubal, potential fits for Ivan Herrera and Alex Verdugo, and many more trade-related questions.

Kevin asks:

Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts?

Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November.  As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now.  His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just "left arm fatigue."  He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year.  As a result, Skubal's 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher.  He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81.  He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game's best pitchers.

This year, Skubal's fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph.  Since June 19th, he's at 97.47.  In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery.

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Reds’ Nick Martini Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Reds outfielder/designated hitter Nick Martini underwent surgery yesterday to repair ligament damage in his thumb, manager David Bell informed the team’s beat (X link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). A firm timeline for his recovery wasn’t provided, but Bell noted there’s still a chance Martini could return before season’s end.

Martini was placed on the injured list over the weekend due to an issue in his left thumb. He suffered the injury when he jammed his thumb on a headfirst slide into second base the day prior. The 34-year-old Martini got out to a blistering start in 2024, ripping a pair of Opening Day homers and batting .290/.303/.677 through his first 11 games. He then fell into a prolonged slump before being optioned to Triple-A Louisville on May 7.

Martini has twice been optioned to Louisville this season, and both times he’s laid waste to upper-minors pitching. In 60 plate appearances, he’s delivered a .340/.467/.681 batting line with four homers and as many walks as strikeouts (11). That certainly suggests the thumb hadn’t been bothering him prior to that ill-fated slide and that the bulk or entirety of the damage came on that one isolated play.

The overall .212/.272/.370 slash that Martini has turned in this season for the Reds is quite a ways below par, but he has a history of drawing walks and posting solid OBPs at the MLB level. In 575 MLB plate appearances, Martini is a .252/.336/.400 hitter. He’s also consistently been an OBP machine in Triple-A, where he’s slashed .295/.400/.451 in 2246 career plate appearances.

Martini will get big league pay and service time while he mends from that surgery. The injury could also give the Reds some 40-man roster flexibility, as it seems quite possible based on Bell’s nebulous recovery timeframe that he’ll require 60 days on the injured list.

Brewers Outright Taylor Clarke

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July 10: Clarke went unclaimed on outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Nashville, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. As previously noted, he’ll likely accept. Clarke picked up 48 days of service earlier this season while on the major league injured list, bringing him to 4.168 years of service — just four days shy of the five years he’d need to reject the outright but retain his salary. (Clarke did not receive big league service time during his DFA window, as he was in Triple-A at the time he was designated.)

July 3: The Brewers have designated right-hander Taylor Clarke for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for newly acquired right-hander Aaron Civale. The right-hander did not pitch in the majors for Milwaukee after coming over from Kansas City in an offseason trade sending minor league right-hander Ryan Brady and minor league infielder Cam Devanney back to the Royals.

The 31-year-old Clarke pitched in the big leagues for the 2019-21 D-backs and 2022-23 Royals. He had a nice showing with Kansas City in 2022, tossing 49 innings of 4.04 ERA ball with a solid 23.6% strikeout rate and pristine 3.9% walk rate. He couldn’t sustain that production into the 2023 campaign, however, evidenced by a 5.95 ERA in 59 frames. Clarke punched out an even better 24.4% of his opponents but also walked 9% of the batters he faced and yielded considerably more hard contact en route to a bloated 1.83 HR/9 mark.

Milwaukee, likely intrigued by Clarke’s 95 mph average heater, ability to miss bats and remaining minor league option, sent a pair of minor leaguers to Kansas City after the Royals had designated Clarke for assignment themselves (to make room for the signing of Seth Lugo). He opened the season on the minor league injured list and has been stretched out as a starter since returning, though the results haven’t been encouraging. Clarke has pitched in 11 games, nine of them starts, and been tagged for a dreary 5.30 earned run average. He’s back to showing strong command (5.2% walk rate) but has seen his strikeout rate dip to 19.5% while last season’s home run troubles persist (1.77 HR/9)

The Brewers will either trade Clarke or place him on outright waivers within the next five days. (Waivers themselves are an additional 48 hour process.) He has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to the minors in the event that he goes unclaimed, but doing so would require forfeiture of the remainder of this season’s $1.25MM salary. Given that arbitration salary and his struggles in the upper minors, it seems likely that Clarke will clear and remain with the Brewers in Triple-A Nashville. If he’s not added back to the 40-man roster before season’s end, he’d be eligible for minor league free agency, as is the case with all players who possess three-plus years of service but have been removed from a team’s 40-man roster.

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