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Archives for July 2024

The Opener: Ray, NL Wild Card, Yelich, MLBTR Podcast

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With the trade deadline now just six days away, here are four things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Ray to make Giants debut:

Veteran left-hander Robbie Ray hasn’t pitched in more than 18 months after exiting the first start of his 2023 season with a flexor strain that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. At the time, he was a member of the Mariners, but over the winter Seattle swapped Ray to San Francisco in exchange for outfielder Mitch Haniger and righty Anthony DeSclafani. He’s continued his rehab with his new club since then, and all that work getting back to the mound will finally pay off today when Ray makes his first start in a Giants uniform against the Dodgers in L.A. in a game scheduled for 8:10pm local time.

Ray will be facing right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is coming off the IL himself but sports a strong 3.47 ERA in 18 starts this year. The Giants will be hoping that Ray, the AL Cy Young award winner in 2021, will provide a boost and halt a potential three-game losing streak. San Francisco has dropped two straight and fallen near the back of a tight NL Wild Card chase. They now sit five games out, and five teams separate them from the Mets, who currently hold the final Wild Card spot. The Giants’ play over the next few days will be crucial with regard to their deadline approach. San Francisco will also need to make a 40-man roster move to activate Ray.

2. NL Wild Card scene and its impact on the trade deadline:

As just alluded to, the NL Wild Card hunt is at a critical juncture. The Cardinals and Mets hold the second and third spots at the moment, but each of the Padres, D-backs, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Giants and Nationals are within 5.5 games. The Cubs and Nats both still plan to operate primarily as sellers, but the direction isn’t as clear for everyone else in the mix. A series of three to four straight losses for any of these clubs would have massive deadline ramifications. For some clubs, a decision may come even sooner. The Reds are already open to moving some of their veteran relievers even as they look to hang around in the race, but a loss today could drop them 5.5 games out of the postseason picture. Every game carries heightened significance right now, creating a mini-playoff effect and leading to ample scoreboard watching.

3. Yelich exits with injury:

Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich is in the midst of a resurgent season at the plate, sporting a career-best 18.4% strikeout rate and an excellent .315/.406/.504 slash line (156 wRC+) in 73 games this year. That’s been a huge part of Milwaukee’s success, but now it seems the club may need to go without its best hitter for some time after he exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs due to back tightness. According to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, manager Pat Murphy told reporters after the game that Yelich “could be” due for a trip to the injured list. Frustrating as the loss of Yelich would surely be, a silver lining for the Brewers would be the fact that the club is relatively flush in quality outfield options with Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, and Sal Frelick all seeing regular playing time at the moment and Blake Perkins currently in a bench role.

4. Check out today’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast!

This week’s installment of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is a particularly fun one, as host Darragh McDonald is joined by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco for a two-hour megapod during which they discuss the coming trade deadline. Discussed within are not only some of the league’s most obvious buyers (Yankees, Orioles) and sellers (Marlins, White Sox), but also some of the teams facing some tough decisions this summer like the Rays and Blue Jays. The episode is currently live on both Spotify and Apple Music, and will be posted here on the site later this morning!

Orioles Willing To Trade Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch ahead of the trade deadline. They currently boast a one-game lead over the Guardians for the best record in the American League and a 1.5-game lead over the Yankees for first place in the AL East. Thus, they fit the criteria for major buyers; the O’s are undeniably one of the best teams in baseball, but they still have things worth fighting for down the stretch. What’s more, prospect evaluators widely agree that Baltimore has one of the deepest and most talented farm systems in the game, in addition to a logjam of talented young players on the major league roster. They should be able to outbid just about anyone to land their ideal trade targets in the coming days.

Yet, precisely because of all that talent, the Orioles might also be sellers at the deadline. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Baltimore is willing to discuss trades for Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, a pair of veterans who have been with this team since it was one of the worst in baseball. It’s rare to see a team with World Series aspirations trade proven, cost-controlled players at the deadline, but the Orioles can afford to part with Mountcastle and Mullins without compromising anything. Indeed, they might get even stronger by clearing up room on a crowded roster.

It wasn’t so long ago that Mullins was one of Baltimore’s best players. He earned down-ballot MVP votes during a career year in 2021 and followed that up with a solid all-around season in 2022. However, his offensive and defensive numbers both took a turn for the worse in 2023, and that trend has continued into 2024, his age-29 season. Mullins is batting .214 with a 79 wRC+. Despite his perfect fielding percentage, he has put up just 1 OAA (he had six last year and nine the year before). In addition, his arm strength has fallen below average, according to Statcast. Just about the only area where Mullins has provided above-average production is on the bases. He has 16 steals and ranks among the top 15 AL players in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric (BsR).

It might seem far too soon for the Orioles to give up on a 29-year-old center fielder with MVP votes in his past, but given the sheer amount of talented outfielders at Baltimore’s disposal, the team can hardly afford to keep giving so much playing time to a player who is providing so little. Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad all deserve regular playing time, while Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby are a couple of promising options at Triple-A. There aren’t a ton of center fielders in that mix, but Cowser has played phenomenal defense in left this season; he could slide over to center and open up his corner spot for a bigger bat.

Mountcastle, 27, is having a perfectly serviceable season, with 12 home runs and a 109 wRC+. Those aren’t bad numbers, by any means, but contending teams generally have higher expectations at first base, and Mountcastle’s 111 wRC+ over the past four seasons doesn’t exactly suggest that better days are ahead. Thus, if Mountcastle is preventing players like Kjerstad, and eventually Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, from getting regular playing time, he might be doing more harm than good for the Orioles.

Still, considering his consistently above-average offensive performance in all five seasons of his big league career, Mountcastle would be a welcome addition to plenty of contending teams. With All-Star first basemen Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Yandy Díaz unlikely to be dealt, Mountcastle, under team control through 2026, could be an interesting (and cheaper) alternative for a team in need of a right-handed bat. Meanwhile, Mullins could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for a team that thinks it can help him rediscover his All-Star form. He is not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season.

The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade either Mountcastle or Mullins, and, perhaps they won’t unless GM Mike Elias receives an overwhelming offer. However, trading one or both of the veterans could allow the O’s to recoup some of the young talent they will part with in other deadline trades. While neither player will command a massive return, Baltimore might still prefer to swap them for prospects rather than continue to run them out in place of better options or, eventually, stash them on the bench.

KBO’s Doosan Bears Sign Jared Young

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The Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization announced they’ve signed utilityman Jared Young (h/t to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). The Old Dominion product had been playing in Triple-A with the Cardinals.

Young was a 15th round pick by the Cubs back in 2017. He reached the majors late in the 2022 season and appeared in 22 games over the next two years. The left-handed hitter ran a .210/.290/.435 line with a pair of home runs across 69 trips to the plate. Chicago placed Young on waivers at the start of last offseason. St. Louis nabbed him from their rival and successfully passed him through waivers during Spring Training.

Assigned to their top farm team in Memphis, Young was hitting .285/.411/.506. He connected on 11 homers and walked at a strong 14.3% clip against an 18.5% strikeout rate. The Cards never called him up, but his excellent work in the upper minors gets him a look in the KBO. That surely comes with a nice pay bump compared to his Triple-A salary.

KBO teams are only permitted to roster three foreign-born players. As a corresponding move for signing Young, they waived outfielder Henry Ramos. The 32-year-old signed with the Bears over the winter. He was hitting .306/.360/.482 in 80 games. That’s strong production, but Yoo notes (on X) that the Bears’ coaching staff has taken issue with Ramos’ defense and baserunning. A veteran of 12 minor league seasons, Ramos has logged brief MLB time with the Diamondbacks and Reds.

Royals Sign First-Round Pick Jac Caglianone

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The Royals announced the signing of sixth overall pick Jac Caglianone. Caglianone receives a $7.5MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). The selection comes with a slot value of roughly $7.21MM.

Caglianone is a two-way player from the University of Florida. His higher upside professionally is as a position player. Caglianone topped 30 home runs in each of his final two seasons in Gainesville. He hit 35 longballs — second among Division I hitters behind #3 pick Charlie Condon’s 37 — with a .419/.544/.875 slash line as a junior. Caglianone walked at an 18.4% clip while striking out only 8.2% of the time. He has top-of-the-scale raw power that gives him the chance to hit in the middle of a lineup.

Nevertheless, pre-draft scouting reports raised some questions about his pure hitting ability. Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each pointed to concerns about Caglianone’s chase rate as well as a tendency to get pull-oriented in his swing. Caglianone is likely limited to first base defensively, so he’ll need to hit a lot to provide value.

He’s not as highly regarded as a pitching prospect. While he can run his fastball into the upper 90s, his subpar control points to a bullpen future. It seems likely the Royals will prioritize his offensive development in the hope that he moves quickly and establishes himself as a 30+ home run hitter.

Reds Likely To Trade From Bullpen Depth

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The Reds are telling teams they plan to trade from their bullpen, report C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. That is not yet a signal about their deadline direction, though. According to the report, Cincinnati anticipates having a bullpen surplus as they expect Emilio Pagán and Ian Gibaut to return from the injured list next month.

Cincinnati has somewhat quietly had one of the better bullpens in the league. Reds relievers rank seventh with a 3.52 earned run average and are eighth with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The relief group had been a recurring problem before turning into one of the team’s strengths this year. Swingman Nick Martinez has thrived when working from the ’pen. Fernando Cruz has developed into one of the league’s better strikeout arms, while underrated lefty Sam Moll has continued to excel after coming over from the A’s at last year’s deadline.

The Reds don’t have a ton of maneuverability with their relief group. Cruz and Moll have locked down two spots with their performance. Closer Alexis Díaz has been inconsistent, but Cincinnati isn’t going to send him down. Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims all have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment. Cincinnati can’t option Tony Santillan back to the minors after selecting his contract two weeks ago.

That leaves one bullpen spot with a five-man rotation. Martinez is currently working from the starting five but could slide back to the ’pen once Carson Spiers returns from the injured list. That’d essentially complete the bullpen without having any obvious candidates to bounce between Great American Ball Park and Triple-A Louisville.

If they needed a fresh arm at that point, the Reds could designate someone for assignment. While Farmer has a 2.80 ERA over 45 innings, his strikeout and walk profile is pedestrian. Santillan had spent virtually the entire season in Triple-A, but The Athletic writes that the Reds view him as a key piece and would not want to put him back on waivers. Cincinnati could get Gibaut, Pagán and lefty Brent Suter back from injury later in the season.

While they’ll likely deal with other injuries along the way, the Reds obviously won’t be able to make any trades after next Tuesday. It seems they’re preemptively trying to get something in return for at least one or two of their relievers rather than lose players via waivers in August. The most obvious candidates for such a move are their impending free agents: Sims, Farmer and Wilson.

None of that trio would bring back a significant return. Sims, who is playing on a $2.85MM arbitration salary, has the highest ceiling of that group. He misses bats and has worked in a high-leverage capacity for the last few seasons, but he issues too many walks to be an in-demand trade chip. Sims is handing out free passes at a 13% clip over 33 frames this year after walking more than 15% of batters faced last season.

Wilson missed virtually all of 2022-23 because of Tommy John surgery and a lat injury. He returned this year with his typical velocity and has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a 5.2% walk rate. A .365 average on balls in play has led to an unimpressive 4.85 ERA, but the 36-year-old is a fine option for teams seeking another left-hander in middle relief. Wilson is making a $1.5MM base salary.

Martinez is making $14MM this year and has a $12MM player option for next season. He’s pitching well, turning in a 3.88 ERA with excellent control over 72 frames. The fairly lofty salary and ’25 player option could lead teams to look elsewhere, though. It’s also not clear if the Reds want to deal Martinez, whose versatility they could value if they still anticipate making a playoff push.

General manager Nick Krall told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday that the front office had not decided on their overall deadline outlook. They’re five games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, yet they’re within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a wide open National League. Cincinnati’s game against the Braves tonight was rained out. They’ll make it up with a doubleheader on Wednesday. They play a weekend set in Tampa Bay and one game against the Cubs before the deadline.

Fantasy Baseball: Trade Deadline Check-In

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Hello friends.

It's almost deadliiiii-ne day! This time next week, massive moves will have been made and many fantasy values will have been greatly shifted. Closer to setup man, starter to platoon, top prospect on a good team to living in a box out behind Comerica. Ahh, summer.

We'll have plenty of buyers but not all will be capital-B, "buyers" because not everyone is a real Contender. Some are only fakes who can't look themselves in the mirror and just admit that they should be looking towards 2025 and beyond instead of hoping to catch some Wild Card magic.

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Orioles To Select Chayce McDermott

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The Orioles are calling up pitching prospect Chayce McDermott to start tomorrow’s game in Miami, manager Brandon Hyde informed the team’s beat (X link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). The O’s need to add him to the 40-man roster.

It’s the first MLB call for McDermott, who turns 26 next month. The Astros took him in the fourth round of the 2021 draft out of Ball State. Houston shipped him to Baltimore as part of the three-team Trey Mancini deal the following summer. The 6’3″ righty has since developed into one of the O’s more talented minor league arms. Baseball America ranked him as the #6 prospect in the Baltimore system coming into this season.

McDermott had combined for a 3.10 ERA while striking out nearly 31% of batters faced at the top two minor league levels a year ago. He has spent all of this season with Triple-A Norfolk, working to a 3.96 earned run average across 20 outings. He easily leads all Triple-A pitchers with 129 strikeouts, fanning nearly a third of opponents.

BA credits McDermott with a mid-90s fastball that plays especially well at the top of the strike zone. That’s the best offering in a five-pitch mix. Whether McDermott sticks as a starter will be largely dependent on his command. He has had a hard time finding the strike zone this year, walking more than 13% of opponents. Free passes have been an issue throughout his minor league career and could point to an eventual bullpen role.

McDermott’s first look comes from the rotation, though it might not be more than a spot start. Baltimore could add a starter to slot in behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez before next Tuesday’s deadline. The O’s could then option McDermott back to Norfolk or give him an opportunity to carve out a bullpen role for the stretch run. They had needed to add him to the 40-man roster by next offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Their 40-man is at capacity and they don’t have any candidates for a move to the 60-day injured list, so they’re likely to designate someone for assignment tomorrow.

Dodgers Interested In Randy Arozarena

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The Dodgers have made clear they’re looking to make a splash at the top of the trade market. Most of the focus has been on the pitching side — general manager Brandon Gomes said just last night the front office is seeking “an impact-type arm” — and it seems they’re taking a similar approach to the position players.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Los Angeles is seeking a significant offensive upgrade in the outfield. The Dodgers have already been tied to White Sox star Luis Robert Jr. Feinsand writes that Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena is also on L.A.’s radar. The Dodgers had been loosely linked to Arozarena over the offseason.

The fit is rather straightforward. Teoscar Hernández could handle right field if the Dodgers added an everyday player in left. Andy Pages could play center field regularly while Jason Heyward would move into a fourth outfield role. Each of Hernández, Arozarena and Pages hit from the right side, meaning Heyward should be able to rotate in against right-handed pitching fairly frequently to keep everyone fresh.

Arozarena started the season terribly. The former All-Star carried a .158/.257/.312 batting line into June. He has caught fire over the past couple months, raking at a .286/.392/.514 clip through his most recent 166 plate appearances. The dreadful spring is taking a toll on Arozarena’s season line, which sits at a pedestrian .211/.313/.395 mark. Considering he’d been a well above-average hitter over his first three and a half years in the big leagues, most teams will probably view his April/May performance as an anomaly.

That’s also true of the Rays, who are shaping up as one of the most interesting teams to watch over the next week. Tampa Bay isn’t out of playoff contention, but they’re sitting at .500 with a 5.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race. A playoff push this year is possible but unlikely. While the Rays aren’t going to orchestrate a complete teardown, they’ll likely consider offers on a host of productive veterans (e.g. Brandon Lowe, Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Isaac Paredes, Pete Fairbanks). Whether to trade Arozarena is one of the biggest questions facing the front office.

The 29-year-old outfielder is playing on an $8.1MM salary, a little less than $3MM of which is yet to be paid. He’s set for two more arbitration raises before getting to free agency during the 2026-27 offseason. The Dodgers are in the highest tier of luxury tax penalization and face escalating penalties for exceeding the CBT threshold in at least three straight years. They’d owe a 110% tax on any contracts they absorb.

Giants Claim Derek Hill From Rangers

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The Giants are claiming outfielder Derek Hill off waivers from the Rangers, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Texas designated the speedster for assignment over the weekend. San Francisco already had an opening on their 40-man roster, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move until Hill reports to the team.

Texas signed Hill, a former first-round pick of the Tigers, to a minor league deal over the winter. They gave him a pair of stints on the big league roster. He connected on three home runs in 16 games, though he also struck out 14 times while drawing only two walks. The 28-year-old has had an excellent season in Triple-A, hitting .350/.415/.631 with eight home runs through 176 plate appearances.

Hill can play all three outfield positions. He hasn’t hit much at the MLB level, running a .232/.280/.334 line over parts of five seasons. He’s a career .300/.360/.502 hitter over 224 Triple-A contests, making him an intriguing depth piece. Hill has exhausted his minor league options, so the Giants will need to keep him on the big league roster or designate him for assignment themselves moving forward.

Angels Reinstate Luis Rengifo, Designate Keston Hiura

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The Angels are designating infielder Keston Hiura for assignment, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (X link). The move opens an active roster spot for the reinstatement of Luis Rengifo from the 10-day injured list. The Halos now have two vacancies on their 40-man roster.

Rengifo missed around three weeks with inflammation in his right wrist. It doesn’t seem all that serious. The Halos fortunately managed to get him back a week before the deadline, giving him a few games to demonstrate he’s at full health. The switch-hitting Rengifo is one of the better offensive options who should be available this summer. He’s hitting .315/.358/.442 across 269 plate appearances.

While he’s unlikely to maintain a .349 average on balls in play, Rengifo should still be an above-average hitter. He makes a ton of contact and topped 15 homers in 2022 and ’23. Over the past two and a half seasons, he owns a .275/.325/.437 line over more than 1200 trips to the plate. He has destroyed left-handed pitching while turning in league average results against righties. Rengifo isn’t a great defender anywhere, but he’s capable of bouncing around the infield and occasionally logging corner outfield reps.

Rengifo is making $4.4MM this season. He’s controllable through arbitration for one more season. MassLive reported yesterday that the Red Sox have shown some interest, though they’re likely one of many teams that’ll be in touch with the Halos. Speculatively speaking, the Yankees, Pirates and Royals are a few others that would make sense as suitors for Rengifo.

Hiura got the call in conjunction with Rengifo’s IL placement. The former #9 overall pick went 4-27 (all singles) and struck out 10 times in as many games. That was Hiura’s first major league work since 2022. Since an excellent rookie campaign five years ago, he’s a .203/.287/.384 hitter with a 38.5% strikeout rate at the MLB level.

The UC Irvine product has continued to hit well against Triple-A pitching, but he hasn’t carried that over against MLB arms. He owned a solid .270/.346/.536 slash over 68 minor league contests with the Tigers and Angels before being called up. He’s out of options, so the Halos couldn’t send him back to the minors without taking him off the 40-man roster. It’s unlikely they’ll find a trade partner, so Hiura is likely to hit the waiver wire this week. He has already cleared outright waivers once in his career and could elect free agency if he goes unclaimed again.

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