Archives for July 2024

Orioles’ Jorge Mateo Suffers Left Elbow Subluxation; Connor Norby To See Regular Time At Second Base

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2024 at 11:23am CDT

The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve placed infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo on the 10-day injured list due to a subluxation (i.e. partial dislocation) of his left elbow. Fellow infielder/outfielder Connor Norby is up from Triple-A Norfolk in his place. Baltimore also optioned righty Chayce McDermott to Norfolk following last night’s MLB debut and recalled righty Bryan Baker, adding a fresh arm to the bullpen.

Mateo suffered the injury on Tuesday in a collision with shortstop Gunnar Henderson when both infielders slid for an up-the-middle grounder (video link). It’s not clear yet how long he’ll be sidelined. Manager Brandon Hyde told the Baltimore beat that Mateo will “miss some time,” but there’s still enough swelling to obfuscate the full recovery picture (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). While Mateo didn’t require immediate surgery, his arm was placed in a cast on Tuesday. He’ll eventually receive a second opinion, Weyrich tweets, and Hyde added that it’s “too soon” to tell whether Mateo will need surgery at some point.

With Mateo out for an indefinite period, Norby will “get some regular playing time” at second base, Hyde revealed. It’s a notable development both in the sense that Norby has ranked among the system’s best prospects since he was selected in the second round of the 2021 draft and in the sense that Norby has been a oft-speculated trade candidate as the O’s look to upgrade their pitching staff. The Orioles possess enough infield depth that they could still trade Norby — Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias can both play second base, and top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are looming in the upper minors — but that outcome seems less likely now that he’s ticketed for a near-everyday role in the big leagues.

Mateo, 29, has been the Orioles’ primary second baseman this season. He’s batted just .229/.267/.401 on the year. That’s 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but Mateo has provided modest pop (five homers, .172 ISO) and plenty of value on the basepaths (13-for-15 in steals). Defensive metrics feel he’s been roughly average with the glove — his penchant for highlight-reel plays not withstanding.

With what seems like a notable absence and even a potential for surgery on the table, Mateo’s outlook in Baltimore becomes cloudy. He’s due for one more arbitration raise this offseason and would reach free agency following the 2025 campaign. Given the possibility of a long layoff, the team’s enviable infield depth and the fact that Mateo is owed a raise on a $2.7MM salary, he could again emerge as an offseason trade candidate or non-tender candidate, depending on the ultimate prognosis for his injury.

The 24-year-old Norby isn’t likely to be a defensive upgrade but can be reasonably expected to provide a boost to an already potent lineup. He’s hitting .297/.389/.519 in Norfolk (133 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple, 13 steals (in 16 tries) and a stout 12.5% walk rate. Norby’s 27.7% strikeout rate with the Tides is a red flag, but punchouts haven’t been a long-running problem for the East Carolina University product.

Norby made his big league debut earlier this season, appearing in four games and going 3-for-14 with a home run before being sent back down. He can’t accrue a full year of service in 2024, meaning he’ll still be under club control for another six full seasons. He’s in the first of his three minor league option years and won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason at the earliest.

Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin

By Darragh McDonald | July 25, 2024 at 11:00am CDT

The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.

The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.

Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.

A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.

Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.

That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.

He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.

With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.

Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.

That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.

The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.

The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.

Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.

Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.

The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.

Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.

Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.

The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.

Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.

Breslow: Red Sox Looking To Add Pitching, Right-Handed Bat

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2024 at 10:14am CDT

The Red Sox are six games out in the AL East and sit just one game back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They’ve been linked to a number of trade targets over the past week — James Paxton, Jameson Taillon and Luis Rengifo among them. That should be indicative of the team’s deadline approach, but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow removed any doubt and publicly stated that he’s “looking for ways to improve the club” in the final days before next Tuesday’s trade deadline (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

Specifically, Breslow cited a desire to add to an injury-depleted pitching staff and to find a right-handed bat to complement a lineup that leans left-handed. Asked about the possibility of both moving some current contributors who are free agents at season’s end (e.g. Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen) and also looking to add elsewhere on the roster, Breslow said it’d be “irresponsible” if he didn’t at least listen to what teams had to offer, but he also heavily downplayed the possibility of trading a current contributor: “It’s hard to think about how moving those guys would make us better,” said Breslow.

Boston’s rotation was dealt a significant blow before the season even began, when offseason signee Lucas Giolito suffered a UCL tear during spring training and underwent an internal brace procedure that’ll keep him out of action until 2025. Righty Garrett Whitlock underwent the same procedure just two months later. Depth starter Chris Murphy had Tommy John surgery in April.

At the moment, the Sox are going with a rotation of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Cooper Criswell. Houck has already set a new career-high in innings pitched with more than two months of the season to play out. Crawford is 10 innings shy of last year’s 129 1/3 frames. Criswell has been a nice under-the-radar find for the Sox, pitching to a 4.02 ERA in 65 innings. However, he’s cooled after a hot start. Even with the seven scoreless frames he tossed in his most recent start, Criswell has a 5.26 earned run average dating back to mid-May. Like Houck and Crawford, he’d sail past his career-high innings count if he remained in the rotation for the rest of the season.

Boston’s depth beyond that quintet isn’t great. Righty Josh Winckowski has pitched well in five starts, but he’s been valuable as a long reliever as well (highlighted by an excellent six-inning relief appearance in which he held the Jays to two runs and saved the rest of the ’pen on a day when Bello was knocked out in the third inning). Veteran Chase Anderson is another long option in the bullpen but has a rough track record in recent seasons. He’s pitched to a 4.59 ERA in 2024 but has generally worked in low-leverage and mop-up situations. Veteran Brad Keller is on the 40-man roster in Triple-A, but the Sox used him in relief earlier this season and he was hit hard both in Boston and with the ChiSox. Non-40-man options include Naoyuki Uwasawa, prospect Richard Fitts and journeyman Jason Alexander.

Suffice it to say, the Sox could use both some bulk innings and some more depth. Breslow indicated that “in a perfect world,” he’d be able to acquire someone controlled/signed beyond the current season, though such options aren’t exactly plentiful. Boston’s reported interest in Paxton signals that they’re at least open to a short-term rental, while their talks with the Cubs about Taillon demonstrate a willingness to take on some salary of note. Taillon is signed through 2026 and earning $18MM per season along the way.

With regard to a right-handed bat, the need is arguably less acute but notable nonetheless. Red Sox hitters have posted a league-average .249/.325/.403 slash against left-handed pitching this season. That’s hardly a glaring flaw, but there’s room for improvement. That’s especially true when it comes to their contact abilities against lefties — or rather, their lack thereof. Sox hitters have fanned at an MLB-worst 28.8% clip against lefties, and no other team is particularly close. The Mariners have the second-worst mark at 26.2%, and the Rockies (25.2%) are the only other team north of 25%.

Between Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, the Sox have a handful of key left-handed bats in the lineup. Devers and Duran have been fixtures regardless of opponent. Abreu is typically complemented by righty-swinging veteran Rob Refsnyder. Right-handed regulars in the lineup include catcher Connor Wong (who’s in the midst of a breakout year at the plate), versatile Ceddanne Rafaela and the aforementioned O’Neill.

Speculatively speaking, first or second base would be a sensible area to target a right-handed bat. Dominic Smith has held his own with a .232/.326/.371 slash in the absence of slugger Triston Casas (another lefty), but Casas isn’t especially close to returning. Boston’s Chris Sale-for-Vaughn Grissom swap has been disastrous thus far, with Sale returning to form in Atlanta while Grissom has hit .148/.207/.160 in 87 plate appearances during an injury-ruined first year in Boston. Sox second basemen have batted an MLB-worst .197/.253/.299 on the season.

Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario and old friend Justin Turner are among the rental options who could help in one of those roles. More controllable names include Brent Rooker, Isaac Paredes and the aforementioned Rengifo (a switch-hitter).

The Red Sox drew plenty of criticism for a relatively quiet offseason that followed chairman Tom Werner’s regrettable “full throttle” comments earlier in the winter, but one notable result of that is a luxury-tax ledger that’s not all that close to the threshold. RosterResource projects about $218MM worth of luxury obligations for the Sox, meaning they’re a hefty $19MM shy of the first tier of luxury penalization. The Sox reset their tax bracket when they dipped under the threshold in 2023, but even if ownership is reluctant to exceed it again, their current number should allow Breslow and his staff flexibility when exploring trades in the next few days.

Dodgers To Sign Jordan Lyles To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | July 25, 2024 at 9:30am CDT

The Dodgers are signing right-hander Jordan Lyles to a minor league deal, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post on X. The veteran might need a bit of ramp-up time as he hasn’t pitched in official game action since April.

Lyles, 33, began the year with the Royals. He had signed a two-year, $17MM pact going into 2023 and pitched out of the Kansas City rotation in the first year of that deal. He took the ball 31 times for the Royals but finished the year with an unimpressive 6.28 earned run average.

Coming into 2024, he was nudged out of the rotation in Spring Training as Alec Marsh won the fifth starter’s job behind Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Lyles made five scoreless relief appearances to start this year but hasn’t pitched since. On April 22, he was placed on the temporarily inactive list to attend to a personal family matter and transferred to the restricted list the next day.

Whatever the personal matter was, it has apparently been resolved enough for Lyles to return to baseball. Just a few days ago, the Royals reinstated him from the restricted list but evidently didn’t plan on having him back on their roster, as they released him. That leaves them on the hook for what remains of his contract. If Lyles ends up being selected by the Dodgers, they would only owe him the prorated portion of the league minimum for any time spent on their roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Royals pay.

The Dodgers’ rotation has been through plenty of turmoil this season and it’s sensible enough for them to add a veteran innings-eater type like Lyles. Bobby Miller posted an 8.07 ERA and got himself optioned down to the minors. Walker Buehler struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery and is on the injured list with a hip injury. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a rotator cuff strain and is out until at least mid-August. Both Emmet Sheehan and Dustin May required season-ending surgeries.

Tyler Glasnow also had a brief stint on the IL but was reinstated yesterday. Clayton Kershaw has missed the entire campaign so far after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery, but he will be making his season debut today. While the return of those two was most welcome, it led to a roster crunch that resulted in James Paxton getting designated for assignment. Behind Glasnow and Kershaw, the Dodgers have rookies River Ryan, Gavin Stone and Justin Wrobleski filling out their rotation.

They will most likely find some kind of external addition to that group prior to next week’s trade deadline, but there’s no harm in having a veteran like Lyles getting loose in their system somewhere. He’s been pretty reliable in his career, as he hasn’t been on the 60-day IL since 2015. As recently as 2022, he was able to be a solid back-end rotation guy, as he made 32 starts for the Orioles that year with a 4.42 ERA. Once he gets back in game shape, he’ll give the Dodgers a bit of non-roster depth.

Braves Designate Zack Short For Assignment

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2024 at 8:51am CDT

The Braves announced this morning that they’ve designated infielder Zack Short for assignment. His roster spot will go to third baseman Austin Riley, who’s been reinstated from the paternity list. Atlanta also recalled right-hander Daysbel Hernandez from Triple-A Gwinnett. They had an open active roster spot after optioning southpaw Zach Logue to Gwinnett last night.

Short, 29, has appeared in 30 games with the Braves this season. He’s taken 69 plate appearances and struggled to a .148/.313/.204 batting line. Short has shown good plate discipline in that small sample (17.4% walk rate), as has been the case throughout his big league career (12.3% walk rate in 538 plate appearances). Even with that keen eye, however, Short carries a lifetime .167/.269/.287 in the majors. He’s a versatile defender who can play all over the infield, though defensive metrics suggest he’s best suited at second base. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, he’s a .224/.357/.400 hitter.

Atlanta will trade Short or attempt to pass him through outright waivers within the next five days. Waivers would be an additional 48-hour process. If he were to go unclaimed, Short would stick in the Braves organization as a depth option because he does not have a prior outright assignment or sufficient major league service time to reject an outright in favor of free agency. Short is out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will have to place him directly on the MLB roster.

The Opener: Trade Market, Kershaw, A’s

By Nick Deeds | July 25, 2024 at 8:14am CDT

With the trade deadline just five days away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Is the trade market heating up?

The slow build up to the trade deadline has continued into the early part of this week, but it’s possible things are finally starting to heat up. According to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times, White Sox GM Chris Getz believes the trade market has “come alive” in recent days with “more meaningful” conversations. Getz added that while he expects most deals to get done closer to the deadline, he “wouldn’t be surprised” if some trades started to occur as soon as today. Getz, of course, has plenty of say in what happens this summer as the baseball operations leader of one of the league’s few true sellers. The White Sox have stars Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. to dangle, but those are hardly their only trade chips. Names like Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham, Michael Kopech, Paul DeJong, John Brebbia, Chris Flexen, and Mike Clevinger will all be in play in the coming days.

2. Kershaw to make season debut:

One day after Giants lefty Robbie Ray dominated at Dodger Stadium across five innings of work, striking out eight and allowing just one run, the Dodgers will welcome a Cy Young winning southpaw of their own back from the IL for his season debut. Longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw has been sidelined all year after undergoing shoulder surgery during the offseason, but he’s set to be activated to face San Francisco ace Logan Webb (3.59 ERA). The Dodgers will need to make corresponding moves on both the 40-man and active rosters to bring Kershaw back into the fold prior to this afternoon’s game.

One of the most decorated pitchers in MLB history, Kershaw sports a combined 2.40 ERA and 2.77 FIP in 403 appearances over the last 15 years. During that time, the lefty has made ten All-Star appearances, won three Cy Young awards, and been elected the NL MVP in 2014 while never posting an ERA higher than 3.55. He’ll look to bring that ace production to a Dodgers rotation in need of pitching depth following injuries to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler.

3. A’s activate veteran ahead of deadline:

The Athletics are one of the league’s few obvious sellers. While most of the attention has been focused on the club’s controllable trade chips like closer Mason Miller and outfielder Brent Rooker, the club figures to market an assortment of rental players to clubs looking for cheaper upgrades ahead of the deadline as well. One such rental is veteran righty Ross Stripling. A’s manager Mark Kotsay told reporters last night that Stripling will be activated from 15-day injured list today to take the ball against the Angels (via MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos).

Stripling, 34, has struggled to a 5.82 ERA in 11 starts with the A’s this year but sports a solid 3.99 FIP this season. He’s been plagued by a .359 average on balls in play and 56.4% strand rate that both seem likely to improve over a larger sample. Even with his struggles, Stripling could draw interest in a pitching-hungry market if he looks healthy and effective in his return from an elbow strain that has sidelined him since May.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

By Darragh McDonald | July 24, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Is the lack of sellers going to be an issue this year and going forward with the expanded playoffs? (2:10)
The White Sox could sell Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr., Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, John Brebbia and others (6:30)
The Marlins have Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and others possibly available (16:40)
Will the Athletics move Brent Rooker and what is his value? (22:35)
Will the Rockies trade Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber and others? (36:00)
Will the Angels trade Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning? (49:05)
The Cubs and Jameson Taillon (51:35)
The Tigers and Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal (59:55)
Would the Orioles get Flaherty again? If not him, what other impact starting pitchers are possibly available? (1:05:35)
The Rays and Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Pete Fairbanks, Zach Eflin, Zack Littell and others (1:15:10)
The Blue Jays will trade rentals but what about Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman or George Springer? (1:22:00)
How will the Yankees approach the deadline? Will they remake their infield? If so, how? (1:30:40)
How aggressive will the Orioles be at the deadline? (1:40:10)
How useful his ERA these days? (1:46:55)
The Braves and the deadline (1:51:20)
The Dodgers and the Phillies (1:53:30)
The Guardians and Brewers (1:56:25)
The Twins and the deadline (1:58:20)
The Royals and their outfield (1:59:40)
The Pirates (2:03:30)

Check out our past episodes!

Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets – listen here
Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here
The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Rooker, Orioles, Padres

By Tim Dierkes | July 24, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

Today's mailbag marks the last one before the trade deadline, and covers the likelihood of Tarik Skubal and Brent Rooker trades, what the Orioles, Padres, Tigers, and other teams might do, and much more. For further discussion of many of these topics, check out the MLBTR podcast as well.

Paul asks:

How aggressive do you see Detroit being in moving Tarik Skubal? As an O's fan I am wondering if a package centered around Basallo and some lesser guys like Norby and Stowers could get it done.

I do not expect the Tigers to trade Skubal. They've got the AL Cy Young favorite under control through 2026 at well below-market arbitration prices. In a couple of months, president of baseball operations Scott Harris will reach his two-year anniversary with the team. Trading Skubal right now seems like a bit of a surrender for 2025-26, at a point in his tenure where it seems like Harris should increasingly be pushing chips in.

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Yankees Interested In Jonathan India

By Darragh McDonald | July 24, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

The Yankees have issues on their infield and have interest in second baseman Jonathan India of the Reds, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN. However, Castillo cautions that the Reds aren’t expected to make India available unless they fall out of the playoff race in the next week.

India, 27, is having a resurgent season after a couple of rough campaigns. He has eight home runs this year and is drawing walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances while only striking out 19.7% of the time. His .275/.377/.420 batting line translates to a 123 wRC+, indicating he’s been 23% better than league average at the plate overall.

On top of his offensive contributions, he has stolen nine bases in ten tries. His second base defense hasn’t been well regarded in his career but is better this year, at least by one metric. Defensive Runs Saved still hates him, with a grade of -8 so far this season, but Outs Above Average has him at +1. Since he has -22 OAA in his career, that’s a notable improvement.

At least in terms of the offense, it’s a return to his Rookie of the Year form. He got that trophy in 2021 after he hit 21 home runs and slashed .269/.376/.459 for a wRC+ of 122 while also stealing 12 bases. As mentioned, the past two seasons have been a struggle. India spent time on the injured list due to a right hamstring injury in 2022 and left foot plantar fasciitis in 2023 as he hit a combined .246/.333/.394 in those two campaigns for a 98 wRC+.

Now that he’s back in good form, it’s understandable that the Yankees would want him. In addition to his skills on the field, he’s fairly affordable. He’s making $3.8MM this year and $5MM plus incentives next year, with another season of arbitration control beyond that. That’s likely attractive for the Yankees since they are set to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and well over the top threshold, meaning any money they add to their ledger comes with a 110% tax hit.

Despite all that spending, their infield is in rough shape. Ben Rice is doing a passable job covering for the injured Anthony Rizzo at first base, but both second baseman Gleyber Torres and shortstop Anthony Volpe have been subpar at the plate this year.

DJ LeMahieu missed the first two months of the season due to a right foot contusion and has been awful since been reinstated. While playing regularly at third base, he is hitting .183/.275/.229 this year for a wRC+ of just 52. He only has a .217 batting average on balls in play but he’s also not clobbering the ball, with most of his Statcast metrics trending down relative to his previous levels.

India has only ever played second base in his major league career, though he was almost moved into a utility role this year. The Reds graduated a large number of prospects last year, including infielders Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marté. The club then added to that group by signing free agent Jeimer Candelario. With India coming off those two rough seasons, he was going to be pushed into bouncing to first base and left field and even found himself in offseason trade rumors.

But that calculation quickly changed when Marté received an 80-game PED suspension and McLain required shoulder surgery. That put India back as the club’s everyday second baseman and it’s still the only position he’s ever played at the big league level.

Unless the Yankees want to get creative, then acquiring India would seemingly cut into the playing time of Torres more than anyone else. There would be some logic to that both from the perspective of 2024 and also beyond, as Torres is an impending free agent while India has a couple of years of additional club control. Torres is also slashing just .230/.307/.351 for a wRC+ of 90 this year with subpar defensive grades as well. The designated hitter slot is currently open with Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list, so it’s theoretically possible for India and Torres to be in the same lineup, but Stanton could be back soon and the Yanks have been putting Aaron Judge in there fairly regularly with Stanton out.

Though he may fit with the Yankees, there’s no guarantee he’s available. As Castillo reported, the Reds are still in the playoff race and may not want to sell. As of this writing, they are 49-53 and just four games away from a playoff spot in the National League. President of baseball operations Nick Krall recently suggested that the club had not yet made firm decisions about its deadline approach.

Cincinnati would naturally prefer to hang onto India if they’re still trying to climb back into the race, but he could be a logical trade candidate if they fall out of things. Marte has since returned from his suspension and McLain could return from his injury absence before the season is out. Though India has gotten back on track this year, the club could theoretically have an infield mix of Marté, De La Cruz, McLain, Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand by next year, with Spencer Steer also in the mix. Candelario is signed to a three-year, $45MM deal that he’s not currently playing up to. The others in that group are still in their pre-arbitration years and likely to be viewed as long-term building blocks by the Reds, which could have India looking like an odd man out again.

But if the Reds hang onto India, the Yankees will face a challenge in finding other infield upgrades, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a post for Front Office subscribers. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is perhaps available but he would come with risk as he has been primarily playing in the outfield in recent seasons. The Yanks have been connected to him before but Castillo’s report adds that the Yankees have some concerns about how he would fit in their clubhouse. Isaac Paredes or Brandon Lowe of the Rays could be good fits but big trades between divisional rivals are rare. Other possibilities include Luis Rengifo of the Angels and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs, though it’s unclear if those clubs are willing to part with those players.

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