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Royals Have Shown Interest In Tanner Scott

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Tanner Scott is almost certain to be traded within the next four days. He and Carlos Estévez are the top two rental relievers on the market. The Marlins are willing to listen on anyone on the roster and already traded one key bullpen piece last night.

Scott has been a known target for the likes of the Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles and Phillies dating back to the middle of June. Interest in the hard-throwing southpaw surely extends beyond that group of four. Indeed, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Thursday night that the Royals are also looking into Scott.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has spoken a few times about wanting to add power to the back of the bullpen. The Royals put that into action a couple weeks ago, landing Hunter Harvey from the Nationals just before the draft. They’re evidently still engaged in the relief market. Harvey had pitched in a setup capacity in Washington and looks to be sticking in that role with his new team.

James McArthur has held the ninth inning. It hasn’t always been smooth, as he has blown five of 22 save chances (including his most recent opportunity in Wednesday’s loss to the Diamondbacks). The 27-year-old righty has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine across 40 1/3 innings. He’s getting ground-balls at an excellent 53.8% clip and has plus control, but his 18.5% strikeout rate is well below average. McArthur doesn’t get nearly as many strikeouts as the typical closer, so the Royals could look to push him into the middle innings.

Scott is much more of a traditional closer. He pairs a 97 MPH heater with an upper-80s slider that misses plenty of bats. Scott has fanned more than 29% of opponents over 45 2/3 frames this season. He punched out more than a third of batters faced last year. He’s prone to bouts of wildness but has such high-octane stuff that he has been a dominant presence at the back of the Miami bullpen. After turning in a 2.31 ERA across 78 innings a year ago, he’s allowing 1.18 earned runs per nine this season.

The 30-year-old southpaw is playing on a $5.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration. There’s roughly $2MM in commitments for the stretch run. Scott could be looking at a three- or four-year deal next winter, so there’s very little chance he’ll stay in Miami past the deadline.

Rays Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Theo Gillen

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The Rays agreed with first-round pick Theo Gillen on a $4.3729MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s full slot value associated with the 18th overall selection.

A 6’3″ infielder from a Texas high school, Gillen ranked as a middle of the first round talent by most pre-draft evaluations. FanGraphs slotted him as a top 10 player in the class and graded him as the top prep player on the board. FanGraphs lauds Gillen’s hit/power combination and gives him a chance to stick at second base or in center field. While evaluators broadly praise the left-handed hitter’s overall ability, some teams were alarmed by a right shoulder injury that necessitated labrum surgery in 2022.

Gillen ranked 19th on Kiley McDaniel’s board at ESPN, 23rd at Baseball America and 21st on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic. He’d been committed to Texas but instead joins a Rays’ system that should also continue to add talent via trade over the next few days.

Mets Designate Josh Walker For Assignment

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The Mets designated lefty reliever Josh Walker for assignment, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. New York needed to open a spot on the 40-man roster after acquiring Ryne Stanek this evening.

Walker has been an up-and-down bullpen piece since New York first selected his contract last May. He tossed 10 innings last year and has worked 12 1/3 frames at the big league level this season. Walker owns a 6.45 earned run average in that rather limited sample. He has a roughly league average 22.3% strikeout percentage with an elevated 11.7% walk rate.

The Mets drafted Walker in the 37th round of the 2017 draft out of the University of New Haven. It was very rare to find an MLB contributor that late — the draft has since been shortened to 20 rounds — but Walker pitched his way there with solid minor league numbers. He has a career 3.85 mark over parts of seven minor league campaigns. That includes a 2.83 ERA across 28 2/3 innings at Triple-A Syracuse this season, though he has walked an alarming 16.7% of opposing hitters in the process.

New York can try to trade Walker before next Tuesday’s deadline. They’ll otherwise need to put him on waivers. He’s in his second minor league option year, meaning another team could keep him in the minors if they’re willing to add him to the 40-man roster. Walker has never been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service, so he would not be able to elect free agency if he gets through waivers unclaimed.

Cubs Acquire Gilberto Celestino From Pirates

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The Pirates traded outfielder Gilberto Celestino to the Cubs yesterday (h/t to Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Celestino, who was on a minor league deal with Pittsburgh and will therefore not occupy a spot on the Cubs’ 40-man roster, is making his organizational debut at Triple-A Iowa tonight. It’s likely that the Pirates received a small amount of cash in return.

Celestino had spent the entire season with Pittsburgh’s top minor league team. He was hitting .271/.348/.356 through 264 plate appearances. Celestino only had three home runs but was striking out a lower than average 20% clip and had gone 9-10 in stolen base attempts. He played all three outfield spots in Indianapolis with a plurality of time in center field.

The 25-year-old Celestino played in the majors with the Twins between 2021-22. He got into 122 games in the latter season, hitting .238/.313/.302 over 347 trips to the plate. Minnesota kept him on the injured list or on optional assignment to Triple-A for all of last year and waived him at the start of the offseason. He went unclaimed and joined the Bucs in November.

Pittsburgh has had one of the least productive center field situations in the majors. Neither Michael A. Taylor nor Jack Suwinski has offered much offensively. Celestino’s Triple-A work was nevertheless not enough to convince the Pirates to give him a big league look. He’ll have a couple months to try to snag a roster spot in Chicago.

Mets, Giants Have Discussed Michael Conforto

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The Mets have been in contact with the Giants regarding Michael Conforto, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (X link). The Post’s Jon Heyman wrote last night that the Mets were looking into the outfield market and preferred to add a left-handed hitter.

There aren’t many obvious options on that front. The Marlins are likely to deal center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., but a trade with the Mets could be complicated by the division factor. The Nationals probably wouldn’t have any qualms about dealing impending free agent Jesse Winker within the NL East. Beyond that duo, the Giants might have the top pair of trade candidates among lefty-hitting outfielders in Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski.

Of course, the Mets are plenty familiar with Conforto. A former 10th overall pick, he hit .255/.356/.468 through parts of seven seasons with the team. Conforto represented the Mets in the 2017 All-Star Game and was one of the better hitters in the league between 2017-20. His production dipped in his ’21 platform season. The Mets allowed him to walk in free agency after he declined a qualifying offer. Conforto injured his shoulder while working out that offseason. He underwent surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign. He landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $36MM free agent pact the next winter.

Conforto hasn’t recaptured his peak offensive form coming back from the injury. He has been an unexceptional hitter over his season and a half in the Bay Area. He turned in a .239/.334/.384 slash through 470 plate appearances a year ago. It’s a similar story in 2024. Conforto carries a .226/.298/.415 batting line through 80 contests. His 9% walk rate is his lowest in any full season of his career. He’s striking out at a customary 24.1% clip.

The 31-year-old has had a slight rebound in his hard contact rate and power production. He’s slugging above .400 for the first time in four years and has 10 homers across 299 plate appearances — the equivalent of a half-season of action. That uptick in power has come with a career-low OBP, however. Conforto’s overall offense is again almost exactly league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s on par with what he produced in his final season in Queens and his first year in San Francisco.

Conforto is playing this year on an $18MM salary, nearly $6.3MM of which is still to be paid out. It’s not likely that other teams would take the full freight. Not only has Conforto’s overall production been middling, he has been in a funk of late. He carried a .280/.331/.490 slash into June but owns a .165/.261/.331 line over his most recent 145 plate appearances.

The Giants may need to kick in money and accept a minimal prospect return if they’re going to move him in the next few days. The Mets are paying a 110% fee on any salary they take. Absorbing all of Conforto’s remaining money would cost them upwards of $13MM including luxury taxes. That’s probably not appealing even to an organization that has leveraged its financial might to take on a couple struggling relievers, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, this month.

San Francisco has dropped six of its last 10 and fallen six games below .500. They’re 5.5 games back of the Padres for the last Wild Card spot with five additional teams to pass in the standings. Their mediocre play coming out of the All-Star Break seems to have them positioned as sellers.

Blake Snell Among Giants Drawing Trade Interest

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8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

A’s Reinstate Paul Blackburn From Injured List

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The Athletics reinstated Paul Blackburn from the 60-day injured list to start tonight against the Angels. Oakland had an opening on the 40-man roster. They optioned Hogan Harris to clear space on the active roster.

Blackburn takes the ball for the first time since early May. He missed two and a half months with a stress reaction in his right foot. The 30-year-old righty had started eight times before the injury. He worked to a 4.11 ERA through 46 innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate was a little below average, while his 6.9% walk percentage and 47.1% grounder rate were both a bit better than par. That’s about what’s expected of Blackburn, who has been a control-oriented league average starter for a few seasons.

The righty will only make one start before next Tuesday’s deadline. Blackburn could generate some trade interest, though the A’s never seriously seemed to entertain moving him last offseason. They probably won’t do so coming off an extended injury absence which has dealt a hit to his value. There’s little incentive for the A’s to sell low, as Blackburn is playing on a modest $3.45MM salary and is under arbitration control next season.

The Blue Jays Shouldn’t Be Resisting A Reset

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The 2024 season clearly hasn't gone the way the Blue Jays hoped. Expected to contend for a Wild Card spot at the very least, the Jays have instead encountered notable injuries (Jordan Romano, Alek Manoah) and seen career-worst performances from several key players (Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier). Top prospect Orelvis Martinez received an 80-game PED suspension. Very, very little has gone well in Toronto -- as evidenced by their 46-56 record and -82 run differential.

Unsurprisingly, Toronto has become a deadline seller. The front office reportedly isn't interested in any kind of large-scale rebuild, however, and is focused on primarily selling off rental assets. Reliever Yimi Garcia has already been traded to the Mariners. Starter Yusei Kikuchi and the aforementioned Turner are among the candidates to change hands. That'll bring back some modest returns in terms of prospects. It's also not sufficient for a team in Toronto's situation.

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Mets Acquire Ryne Stanek

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The Mariners announced they’ve traded reliever Ryne Stanek to the Mets for minor league outfielder Rhylan Thomas. New York has yet to announce the move and will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

Stanek, who turns 33 today, has worked in generally high-leverage spots. His performance has been uneven. Stanek owns a 4.38 ERA across 39 innings spanning 46 appearances. He has fanned an above-average 25.9% of opponents while walking nearly 10% of batters faced. It’s a reasonable enough strikeout and walk profile, but Stanek has fallen on hard times of late. He has allowed five runs over 5 2/3 frames this month, giving up a pair of homers and issuing six walks in the process.

Over parts of eight MLB seasons, Stanek owns a 3.54 earned run average. He throws very hard, averaging north of 98 MPH on his fastball. Stanek misses bats but has fringy command and occasionally struggles with home runs. He’s a potential setup option who could fit more cleanly in the middle innings.

The Mariners upgraded their setup core this afternoon, bringing in Yimi García from the Blue Jays. That evidently made Stanek expendable. New York takes a low-cost flier to add a power arm to their bullpen. The Mets brought in Phil Maton — coincidentally, a teammate of Stanek’s for the past few seasons with the Astros — in a trade with the Rays earlier this month. While Stanek and Maton are different types of pitchers, this is a similar kind of move. The Mets take on a few million dollars to add to their bullpen without expending much prospect capital.

Stanek is playing this season on a $4MM base salary. He’s on a one-year deal and will return to free agency at the end of the year. He’s due around $1.4MM in salary through season’s end. His deal contains up to $2MM in performance bonuses. Stanek would lock in $250K for reaching 50, 60 and 70 appearances. He should at least hit the first two of those markers. He’d earn $250K for reaching 20 games finished, with another $250K available for every five games finished up to 40. He’s at 12 so far and will probably work in middle relief for the Mets, so he could fall short of even the lowest of those thresholds. Any incentives he unlocks will be paid proportionally between the two teams. He also picks up a $250K assignment bonus because of the trade.

The Mets are paying a 110% tax on any money they take on. They’re absorbing around $1.54MM in taxes and would be taxed at the same rate for whatever incentives Stanek earns. The overall cost will probably check in around $4MM by season’s end.

New York also relinquishes their 11th-round pick from two seasons ago. A USC product, Thomas is a left-handed hitting outfielder. He has split his time between the top two minor league levels this year, hitting .265/.318/.387 over 305 plate appearances. Thomas hasn’t hit for power or drawn many walks, but he’s striking out at only a 12.1% clip. The 24-year-old can play anywhere in the outfield and likely projects as a fifth outfielder. Baseball America does not rank him among New York’s top 30 prospects.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the Mets were acquiring Stanek for Thomas.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays Acquire Cole Sulser From Mets

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The Rays announced they’ve acquired reliever Cole Sulser from the Mets for cash and optioned him to Triple-A Durham. Tampa Bay had three openings on the 40-man roster, so no further moves were necessary.

New York had designated Sulser for assignment on Monday as the corresponding move for the signing of catcher Logan Porter. The righty had pitched four times for the Mets since they added him to their 40-man roster in April. He allowed five runs over 4 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts and three walks.

A former Cleveland draftee, Sulser made his major league debut with the Rays back in 2019. Tampa Bay lost him on waivers to Baltimore at the end of that season. The Dartmouth product had one excellent year out of the O’s bullpen in 2021. He turned in a 2.70 ERA across 63 1/3 frames behind a 28.4% strikeout rate. Sulser’s numbers fell off after the Orioles traded him to the Marlins the next winter, though. He has barely pitched in the big leagues since then, logging minimal action for the Diamondbacks and Mets.

The 34-year-old Sulser has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A. He owns a 1.48 earned run average across 30 1/3 innings with New York’s top affiliate. Sulser has fanned an above-average 28.1% of batters faced while issuing walks to a lofty 13.2% of minor league opponents. He’s in his final option year and could get a look in the Tampa Bay bullpen after the deadline, especially if they trade someone like Pete Fairbanks or Jason Adam.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com first reported the Mets were trading Sulser to Tampa Bay for cash.

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