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Reds Acquire Ty France

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The Reds announced Monday that they’ve acquired first baseman Ty France and cash from the Mariners in exchange for minor league catcher Andruw Salcedo. Seattle designated France for assignment last week. Cincinnati also placed catcher Austin Wynns on the 10-day injured list due to a lat strain, selected the contract of catcher Eric Yang from Triple-A Louisville and transferred righty Graham Ashcraft to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot. Their 40-man roster is now at capacity. Seattle is reportedly sending around $1.29MM to cover part of France’s remaining salary.

Entering the season, the notion of the Reds acquiring a first baseman would’ve seemed silly. Cincinnati had an infield surplus and a particular glut of first basemen, with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer and offseason signee Jeimer Candelario all standing as options at the position. However, Encarnacion-Strand’s season ended early due to wrist surgery, while Steer has seen significant time in the outfield. Candelario has spent much of the year at third base but has been at first base more frequently since Noelvi Marte returned from an 80-game PED suspension. France figures to slide in at first base — certainly against left-handed pitching — while Candelario could see increased time at designated hitter.

Originally drafted by the Padres, France went to Seattle alongside Andres Munoz in the 2020 trade that sent catcher Austin Nola from Seattle to San Diego. He broke out immediately with the M’s and for several seasons was one of their most productive hitters — even earning a well-deserved All-Star nod in 2022. From 2020-22, France posted a combined .285/.355/.443 batting line. He belted 42 homers despite playing in the game’s most pitcher-friendly park, adding 68 doubles and three triples along the way. He didn’t walk much (6.5%) but also went down on strikes in only 16.7% of his plate appearances.

France’s bat took a step back in 2023, when he hit .250/.337/.366 with a dozen homers. His bat-to-ball skills remained strong, however, and his batted-ball metrics remained in line with those that he’d posted during that strong 2020-22 run. A dip in his homer-to-flyball rate was at least partially to blame, and the Mariners tendered France a contract despite the down year, understandably betting on his track record and the ostensibly fluky nature of his ’23 downturn.

The rebound the M’s had expected never manifested, unfortunately, and this year’s struggles are more alarming. France’s contact skills have dipped noticeably. After making contact on 91.2% of pitches in the strike zone in the three preceding seasons, his contact rate on balls in the zone has dropped to 87%. He’s chased off the plate less but also swung less in general as well, dropping from a 52.5% swing rate to a 48% mark. As he’s gotten more passive and made contact in the zone less often, pitchers have attacked him more (58% first-pitch strike rate in 2021-23; 61.2% in ’24). The change in approach hasn’t worked out, as France’s strikeout rate has spiked to a career-worst 24.4%.

The Reds, in dire need of an offensive jolt, will send a low-level catching prospect to the Mariners in hope of turning France around. He’ll move from one of the worst settings for a hitter (Seattle’s T-Mobile Park) to one of the best (Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park) — and that swap alone should help France in the power department. The Reds will hope that the change in scenery and some new coaching input and new data from their front office can help France get back to his prior form. They’ve received an awful .215/.266/.363 slash from their first basemen this season, so France will have a low bar to clear when it comes to providing an upgrade..

If France is indeed able to return to form — or at least more closely approximate his peak form — he’ll be a multi-year option for Cincinnati. He’s not currently signed to a contract for the 2025 season but is arbitration-eligible one final time this winter. The Reds would owe him a raise on this year’s $6.775MM salary, though his early struggles in Seattle should tamp down the weight of any salary increase and keep him shy of $10MM. If not, France would be a trade or (likelier) non-tender candidate in the offseason.

As for the Mariners, they’ll bring in a 21-year-old catcher who’s played parts of four seasons in the Reds’ system. Salcedo carries a .246/.347/.330 batting line in a still-small sample of 98 professional games. He’s fanned in 27.5% of his plate appearances but also walked at a hearty 11.4% clip. He’s not regarded among the Reds’ top prospects, but that sort of low-level lottery ticket return is to be expected for a veteran player on a notable salary. In the meantime, they’ll continue to give regular playing time at first base to top prospect Tyler Locklear while also scouring the market for an additional bat to add to the mix after acquiring Randy Arozarena from the Rays last week.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specifics of the cash considerations.

Padres Hoping To Add Starter, Have Discussed Jack Flaherty With Tigers

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The Padres fortified their bullpen with their weekend acquisition of righty Jason Adam from the Rays, but they’re not done yet. Dennis Lin and Chad Jennings of The Athletic report that San Diego is hoping to add “at least” one starter and is still open to bringing in additional relief help. They’ve had discussions with the Tigers about Jack Flaherty, per the report, and have indeed at least checked in on a potential Blake Snell reunion (as was reported last night).

Flaherty, 28, stands as one of the likeliest trade candidates on the market. He’s on a one-year, $14MM contract with a Tigers club that faces a 12-game deficit in the AL Central and a 5.5-game gap in the chase for the final AL Wild Card spot (with four teams to leapfrog in that hunt). The Tigers could hold onto Flaherty and make him a qualifying offer — he’s a lock to reject and at least net them a draft pick it after his brilliant 2024 rebound — but the demand for pitching should allow Detroit to extract a better package than that potential comp pick.

In 106 2/3 innings since signing with Detroit, Flaherty boasts a 2.95 ERA with an exceptional 32% strikeout rate and an outstanding 4.6% walk rate. Among the 80 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in 2024, Flaherty has the fifth-best strikeout rate, the seventh-best walk rate and the second best differential between those two marks (trailing only White Sox ace Garrett Crochet). He’s also keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 43% clip, and this year’s 93.5 mph average fastball is his best since 2021. Flaherty also has the sixth-best swinging-strike rate among those 80 pitchers, trailing only Crochet, Cole Ragans, Tarik Skubal, Dylan Cease and Chris Sale — an impressive collection of some of the game’s top arms.

The Friars’ once-outstanding farm system has been thinned over the years by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s insatiable appetite for marquee trades. San Diego recouped some of the value they lost when trading five top prospects for Juan Soto in the offseason when they traded their final year of control over Soto to the Yankees. However, the headline prospect in that trade never threw a regular season pitch in the Padres organization; right-hander Drew Thorpe was instead packaged with three other farmhands in a trade to acquire Dylan Cease during spring training. Preller has since further thinned the system with trades for Luis Arraez and the aforementioned Adam.

Catcher Ethan Salas and young shortstop Leodalis De Vries still rank among the sport’s elite prospects, but all indications to this point have been that both are close to untouchable. Lin recently wrote a separate piece on that subject, and veritably any report connecting the Padres to a high-end trade target has suggested that Salas and De Vries aren’t expected to be in play. That’s likely all the more true when it comes to a rental like Flaherty (or a high-priced star with an opt-out clause, like Snell).

The Padres have been without right-hander Yu Darvish for weeks as he tends to an undisclosed personal matter. He’s on the restricted list indefinitely. Right-hander Joe Musgrove has been out since May due to a bone spur in his elbow and is on the 60-day injured list. They currently have Dylan Cease, Michael King, Matt Waldron and Randy Vasquez in the rotation, but Vasquez has spent much of the season flirting with a 5.00 ERA while King has already set a new career-high for innings pitched. Adding Flaherty or another arm to the mix would both help to bridge the gap until Musgrove and/or Darvish are ready to return and also give the Padres another impact arm for a potential postseason rotation. A theoretical group fronted by Cease, Flaherty, Musgrove and Darvish would be formidable, assuming all four are healthy and active.

Tigers Acquire Ricky Vanasco From Dodgers

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The Tigers have acquired right-hander Ricky Vanasco from the Dodgers, per announcements from both clubs. Detroit had an open 40-man spot after trading Carson Kelly yesterday and optioned Vanasco to Triple-A Toledo. The Dodgers, who designated Vanasco for assignment recently, receive cash considerations in return.

Vanasco, now 25, was once a notable prospect for the Rangers but has had some challenges in recent years. He had Tommy John surgery in September of 2020 and missed the entire 2021 season. But Texas still believed in him enough that they didn’t want him taken in the Rule 5 draft, so Vanasco got a 40-man roster spot in November of 2021.

He returned to the mound in 2022, with some mixed results. In 92 1/3 innings on the farm, he struck out 28.9% of batters but also gave out walks at a 12.7% clip, leading to a 4.68 ERA. In 2023, he required knee surgery that forced him to miss a few months. The Rangers designated him for assignment in May and flipped him to the Dodgers.

The beginning of his tenure with the Dodgers was great, though he was outrighted off their roster not long after being acquired. He threw 30 innings in the minors last year after the deal with a 1.20 ERA, striking out 35% of opponents. He also significantly cut his walk rate to 8.1%.

Since he was outrighted off the roster last summer, he became a free agent at season’s end but the Dodgers re-signed him to a major league deal. Here in 2024, he’s spent most of the season on optional assignment but with his control issues seemingly resurfacing. In 23 1/3 Triple-A innings, he has a 3.47 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate but a huge 18.9% walk rate.

That wildness undoubtedly played a role in nudging him off the Dodgers’ roster but the Tigers will take a shot on him. He is in his final option season, so they can keep him in Toledo to see if he can harness his stuff a little bit better. They can get a close-up look at him for now but he’ll be out of options next year. If he manages to hold onto his roster spot, he has just a few days of service time and can be kept well into the future.

Orioles Interested In Blake Snell

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Giants left-hander Blake Snell might be available before the trade deadline, with the Yankees, Padres and Cubs having already been connected to him in rumors. The Orioles can be added to that pile, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports on X that the O’s are “aiming high” at the deadline thanks to their new owner and strong farm system.

The Orioles have generally acted very conservatively in recent years, hardly spending any money at all. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, since April 2018, the O’s haven’t given out a larger contract than the $13MM deal for Craig Kimbrel. The only multi-year deals they have given out have been two-year extensions for John Means and Félix Bautista, players that were already controllable but facing recoveries from Tommy John surgeries.

The lack of spending was somewhat justifiable while the club was in the depths of a rebuild, but it has carried over into the new competitive window that they are currently in. It has been speculated that things might open up once the planned sale of the club went through and there are some signs that is now happening.

David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club didn’t become official until the end of March, the cusp of Opening Day, so the O’s still had a fairly modest offseason. But here in the lead-up to the deadline, they have shown a willingness to absorb some money, both for this year and into the future. They acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays, with that pitcher still owed roughly $3.8MM of his $11MM salary and a big spike to $18MM next year. They also acquired Seranthony Dominguez from the Phillies, who is making $4.25MM this year and has an $8MM club option for next year.

Acquiring Snell would be a risky proposition on account of his opt-out but the O’s are perhaps the club best suited to take such a risk. As recently laid out by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in a piece for Front Office subscribers, teams are usually hesitant to trade for players with player options or the ability to opt out. There’s no real difference between the terms “player option” or “opt-out”, as either one gives the player the control over what transpires.

Trading for such a player at the deadline comes with more downside than upside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will trigger the opt-out and leave, making them a rental. If they perform poorly or get hurt, the club is stuck with them at a price that’s unpalatable, as the player wouldn’t have accepted it otherwise.

Due to their lack of spending in recent years, the O’s came into this year with almost nothing on the books for 2025 and beyond. The $1MM owed to Bautista was the only guarantee, though they have since added Eflin’s $18MM, as mentioned. They have a few club options and some arbitration-eligible players, but they have hardly anything committed for next year.

Snell signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants coming into 2024. That comes in the form of a $15MM salary and $17MM signing bonus, the latter of which is reportedly not transferable to a trade partner. He then has a $30MM player option for next year.

The results have been inconsistent so far, as they have been throughout much of Snell’s career. He has two Cy Young awards, in 2018 and 2023, but struggled in between. Though he was in Cy Young form just last year, his 2024 got off to a rough start.

Since he didn’t sign until the second half of March, he had a hasty ramp-up and then struggled in his first three starts. He landed on the injured list with an adductor strain, came back for three more bad outings, then returned to the IL with a groin strain.

He was sitting on a 9.51 ERA after those six starts but has since returned and been dominant. He’s made four starts since coming off his second IL stint and only allowed two earned runs in 24 innings. He has struck out 35.7% of batters faced in those four outings, highlighted by punching out 15 Rockies in six shutout innings on Saturday.

The Giants are below .500 at 53-55. That only puts them 3.5 games back of a playoff spot in a relatively weak National League Wild Card race, but they may consider doing some selling. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs still give them a 21.2% chance of sneaking into the postseason though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them down at 9.8%, which could lead to them prioritizing the future.

Making Snell available could allow them to recoup some prospect talent while also clearing $30MM off next year’s payroll that they could reinvest in the team. That might happen anyway if Snell opts out but isn’t a guarantee. Such a move would hurt them in 2024 but wouldn’t necessarily punt their season, as they could still go into the stretch run with a rotation core of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray. There’s also Alex Cobb, who was supposed to be reinstated from the IL over the weekend but was delayed by a blister. The club also has young starters like Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong that they could work into the mix.

Snell’s talents will undoubtedly lead to many exploratory calls, but the offers might be tempered by the player option situation. That’s especially true of club’s with competitive balance tax concerns, which applies to the three other clubs connected to Snell. The Yankees are slated to be a third-time payor and above the fourth tax tier, meaning they are facing a 110% tax on any new spending they take on. Next year’s payroll is more open but they will want to have some powder dry for making a run at Juan Soto and other free agents. The Padres and Cubs are both right up against the base CBT threshold this year and seem loath to cross it.

The O’s are nowhere near any tax concerns and have loads of payroll flexibility, making them an interesting fit on Snell. The front of their rotation now consists of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Eflin, with Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez in the back end. Kremer’s career 4.32 ERA makes him fine for eating regular season innings but the O’s would ideally like to push him out of consideration for playoff starts. Suarez has a solid 3.62 ERA this year but is a 34-year-old journeyman who didn’t pitch in the majors from 2018 to 2023, meaning Baltimore probably doesn’t want to be relying on him either.

Whether it’s Snell or someone else, it seems possible they make some kind of bold strike in the days to come. In addition to the payroll flexibility, their farm system is regarded as one of the best in the league, giving them plenty of prospect capital to work with. The trade deadline is Tuesday at 5pm Central.

Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Rangers Trade Michael Lorenzen To Royals

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The Rangers announced Monday morning that they’ve traded right-hander Michael Lorenzen to the Royals in exchange for minor league lefty Walter Pennington. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported shortly before the announcement that Kansas City had been showing interest in Lorenzen. Pennington is on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary.

A trade of Lorenzen isn’t a signal that the third-place Rangers are punting on their season. There’s been plenty of talk over the past couple weeks that with Max Scherzer, Dane Dunning, Tyler Mahle and eventually Jacob deGrom all getting healthy, Texas could move an arm from its current rotation. Lorenzen, playing on an affordable one-year contract and slated to become a free agent at season’s end, has stood as the most obvious of the bunch to change hands. With Lorenzen headed to Kansas City, the Rangers’ rotation will include Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and perhaps Dunning — although Mahle is on the cusp of wrapping up a minor league rehab assignment and could take that fifth spot.

Lorenzen, 32, has pitched 101 2/3 innings with the Rangers and turned in a very solid 3.81 earned run average, although the rest of his numbers aren’t as encouraging. Lorenzen’s 17.9% strikeout rate is well below the 22.3% league average, while his 11.5% walk rate is considerably higher than the 8.2% league average. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a nice 42.3% clip, but Lorenzen has also benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and 80.7% strand rate that are both considerably better than his career marks of .279 and 74.2%. Some regression on one or both is likely.

Even with some regression, however, Lorenzen is a solid enough back-end starter. This year’s numbers are a decent approximation of who he’s been since reaching free agency three years ago and pursuing a career as a starting pitcher after previously spending five seasons in the Reds’ bullpen. Lorenzen posted a 4.20 ERA, 18.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 250 2/3 innings between the Angels, Tigers and Phillies over the 2022-23 seasons. Add in this year’s work and he’s at a 4.09 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that are worse-than-average but not egregiously so.

That’s a good indication of what to expect moving forward for the Royals, and Lorenzen has shown some flashes of higher output at times. His first two starts following a trade to the Phillies last summer will always be memorable for Phils fans; he tossed eight innings of two-run ball in his team debut and followed it up with a no-hitter against the Nationals his next time out, in his home debut at Citizens Bank Park. However, Lorenzen faded down the stretch, as he was pushing to a career-high innings workload (and also tossed a career-high 124 pitches in that no-hitter). The Phils moved him to the bullpen late in the season.

Kansas City’s rotation is generally full, with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha and Alec Marsh representing a sound one through five. Marsh has been hit hard after a solid start to the season, however, yielding a 6.37 ERA over his past 10 starts. He’s had a few solid outings mixed in throughout that stretch, but since May 27 he’s given up at least three runs in eight of his 10 starts (and at least four in six of them).

Lorenzen could step into that rotation spot, perhaps pushing Marsh to the bullpen or even to Triple-A Omaha. Lorenzen has already pitched enough innings to boost his $4.5MM base salary to $5.5MM, and he’d earn bonuses of $300K, $350K, $400K and $450K for reaching 120, 140, 160 and 180 innings, respectively. The Royals could technically use Lorenzen in the bullpen — they just saw both John Schreiber and Hunter Harvey exit their most recent game due to injury — but that’d be somewhat of a surprising usage given that they traded a big league-ready reliever who’s in the midst of a terrific Triple-A season in order to acquire Lorenzen.

Pennington, 26, will join the Rangers and give them an immediate option out of the ’pen. The Rangers haven’t been able to find a consistently effective lefty relief option this season, but Pennington could fit that bill. Undrafted in the shortened 2020 draft, the 6’2″, 205-pound southpaw signed out of the Colorado School of Mines — and earlier this season became just the second player from that school to ever reach the majors (and the first since Roy Hartzell back in 1906).

The Royals called Pennington up for a brief debut, but he threw just two-thirds of an inning before being sent back down to Omaha. He’s been lights-out with the Storm Chasers this season, pitching to a pristine 2.26 ERA with a 32.9% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a 52.6% ground-ball rate in 59 2/3 frames. Pennington sits 92-93 mph with a sinker, 89-90 mph with his cutter and 83-85 mph with a slider, rounding out a trio of primary offerings. More than half of his pitches this year have been sliders, and he’s held both lefties and righties in check along the way, yielding near-identical batting lines of .198/.250/.286 (to righties) and .156/.262/.278 (to lefties).

Pennington is in the first of three minor league option years. He can’t reach a full year of big league service in 2024, meaning the Rangers will control him through the 2030 season at the very least (although future optional assignments could push that free agent trajectory back even further). He makes for a potential long-term option in the Texas bullpen — a nice pull for a rental starter whose spot in the rotation was in jeopardy given the sheer volume of veteran arms the Rangers have coming back from injury.

The Opener: Royals, Lopez, Cubs

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On the eve of this summer’s trade deadline, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Royals facing potential bullpen injuries:

Yesterday’s 7-3 loss to the Cubs was a particularly brutal one for the Royals, as relievers John Schreiber and Hunter Harvey both exited the game due to injury concerns, leaving a bullpen that is already an obvious weakness for Kansas City in an even more precarious position. After being acquired from the Red Sox over the offseason, Schreiber has posted a 4.14 ERA and an excellent 3.26 FIP in 37 innings of work. Harvey was acquired just before the All-Star break from the Nationals and sports a 4.15 ERA and 3.38 FIP in 47 2/3 innings this year.

As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Schreiber “tweaked” his knee on a play and first base and limped off the field before being replaced by Harvey to start the next inning. Harvey then recorded two outs in the seventh before surrendering back-to-back walks and exiting due to back spasms. Per manager Matt Quatraro, Schreiber is set to undergo imaging and the club expects to know more about the status of both players today. The loss of either arm would surely exacerbate the Royals’ need for bullpen help, which has seen them connected to Angels righty Luis Garcia and Marlins lefty Tanner Scott in recent days.

2. Lopez to receive imaging results:

The Braves also received a major injury scare yesterday when right-hander Reynaldo Lopez exited yesterday’s game due to forearm tightness. Lopez has paired with veteran Chris Sale to help make up for the loss of ace hurler Spencer Strider this year as he’s posted a sterling 2.06 ERA with a 3.16 FIP through 19 starts. Lopez was set to undergo an MRI to determine the severity of the issue last night. A serious injury could force the Braves to jump into the market for starting pitching even as the club figures to prioritize adding to its beleaguered outfield. With as many as ten contenders already in the market for starting pitching help, the addition of Atlanta to that group could make the rush for rotation arms the talk of the league over the final day and a half before the deadline.

3. What’s next for the Cubs?

The Cubs entered deadline season looking like probable sellers this summer but have instead focused on this point on adding players with long-term team control. They picked up right-hander Nate Pearson (controlled through 2026) from the Blue Jays on Saturday before swinging the most surprising deal of the deadline so far yesterday to acquire third baseman Isaac Paredes (controlled through 2027) from the Rays.

Given those buy-side acquisitions, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs attempt to accumulate more long-term assets at the big league level, and they’ve even been connected to shorter-term assets like Giants southpaw Blake Snell. On the other hand, right-hander Jameson Taillon has received plenty of interest on the trade market, and it remains possible he or a bullpen arm like Mark Leiter Jr. get shipped out by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his staff as the deadline approaches.

Cubs Acquire Isaac Paredes For Christopher Morel, Two Prospects

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The Cubs and Rays have lined up on an eye-opening trade in advance of the deadline, as Isaac Paredes is on his way to Chicago.  Christopher Morel and right-handers Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson, comprise the three-player package heading to Tampa Bay in the other end of the deal.

Paredes has been a popular figure in trade rumors in recent days, with such teams as the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Mariners all linked to the All-Star.  Instead, a more surprising suitor has won the bidding, as Paredes will instead go to a Cubs team that sits in last place in the NL Central with a 50-56 record.

Still, it isn’t entirely surprising that the Cubs have made such a bold move, as the team is clearly aiming to contend in 2025 after stumbling to their disappointing result this year.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said earlier this week that the Cubs’ deadline moves would be made with an eye towards competing next season as opposed to making a late run now, though Paredes is certainly a boost to Chicago’s lineup right now.

There are also some long-term ties at play, since Paredes began his pro career as an international signing for the Cubs back in 2015.  He was moved along with Jeimer Candelario to the Tigers at the 2017 deadline in the trade that brought Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to Chicago, and Paredes made his MLB debut in a Detroit uniform in 2020.

Acquired in a trade with the Tigers early in the 2022 season, Paredes emerged as a very productive regular over his three years in Tampa.  He has a 129 wRC+ over his 1377 plate appearances in a Rays uniform, highlighted by a 31-homer season in 2023 and an All-Star appearance this year.  Despite a recent slump, Paredes is still hitting .247/.355/.438 with 16 home runs this season, across 425 PA while getting regular work at both corner infield spots.

Most of that work came at third base, and Paredes figures to take right over from Morel at the hot corner at Wrigley Field.  Paredes’ glovework as a third baseman has been more solid than outstanding, yet even average defense is a big upgrade from Morel, whose struggles in the field have been well documented.  The right-handed hitting Paredes could also spell Michael Busch (a lefty-swinger) at first base when a tough southpaw is on the mound, and Paredes also has a good deal of experience at second base, even though the Rays have used him only in the corner infield spots in 2024.  On paper, however, the Cubs already have their 2025 starting infield set, with Paredes at third base, Busch at first, Nico Hoerner at second base, and Dansby Swanson at shortstop.

Infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos are two of Chicago’s top prospects, so their arrival in a year or two could further shake up the Cubs’ infield picture and perhaps where Paredes ultimately ends up around the diamond.  In perhaps the key element of today’s trade, the Cubs have plenty of time to figure this all out, as Paredes is under arbitration control through the 2027 season.  Paredes is earning a $3.4MM salary this year, in the first of four arb-eligible seasons via his Super Two status.

Even though Paredes was only just starting his trips through the arb process, that escalating price tag surely factored into the Rays’ decision to part ways with a controllable, productive player who is still just 25 years old.  With payroll always a concern in Tampa, the Rays have never shied away from selling high on a player before his price tag becomes too onerous for the organization, as part of the Rays’ constant churn of replacing pricier players for cheaper options that can provide similar or better production.

This strategy has been on full display since the start of July, as Tampa Bay has now moved Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Jason Adam, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Phil Maton in the last four weeks.  This blitz of trades figures to continue right up until the July 30th deadline, and such names as Yandy Diaz and Pete Fairbanks have also been mentioned as potential trade candidates.  All of these moves have come despite the fact that the Rays are still playing solid baseball, as their 54-52 record has them only 3.5 games out of the final AL wild card berth.

Star prospect Junior Caminero has been expected to receive a longer look in the big leagues at this point this season, and very well could have been called up already if his minor league season hadn’t been interrupted by injuries.  With Paredes traded, Caminero now has a clear path to regular playing time at third base, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Caminero in Tampa Bay later this week once the dust has fully settled from the team’s deadline moves.

Morel is only in his third Major League season, but he has thus far played at every position except first base and catcher as the Cubs have tried to find a suitable way to get Morel’s bat into the lineup.  Second base could be a more viable option for Morel now that he is no longer blocked by Hoerner, or the Rays could cycle him into their first base/DH mix as well.

Perhaps the first order of business is getting Morel’s bat on track, as he has hit only .199/.302/.374 with 18 homers in 420 PA this season.  Between this 93 wRC+ and his tough defensive number, Morel has been a sub-replacement level player in 2024, with a -0.1 fWAR.  It is an unfortunate setback for the 25-year-old, who hit a much more respectable .241/.311/.471 with 42 homers in his first 854 MLB plate appearances.

There is probably always going to be a lot of swing-and-miss in Morel’s game, but even being a “three true outcomes” type of player has plenty of utility if Morel can keep drawing walks and putting the ball over the fence.  The Rays are also surely thinking that a change of scenery could benefit Morel, or perhaps that the team’s own staff can help him unlock some greater potential (as has been done with Paredes and a number of other hitters who can come through Tampa’s organization).

Bigge was a 12th-round pick out of Harvard in the 2019 draft, and he made his MLB debut just this month, amassing a 2.70 ERA in his first 3 1/3 innings (over four appearances) in the Show.  Bigge has worked only as a reliever in his pro career, and delivered a 4.25 ERA across 159 innings in the minors, with a big 30.42% strikeout rate but also a 15.06% walk rate.

The control is the biggest obstacle preventing Bigge from fully realizing his potential, as MLB Pipeline rates his cutter, slider, and his upper-90s fastball all as plus pitches, and his curveball also has promise.  However, Pipeline puts Bigge only 29th in their ranking of Chicago’s prospects, with those control problems in mind.  Bigge has so much tantalizing stuff that it is easy to see why the Rays had interest, and given Tampa Bay’s history of pitching development, nobody would be surprised if Bigge becomes a dangerous bullpen weapon with his new team.

Johnson was a 15th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2023 draft, and the Ball State product has a 3.54 ERA in 61 total innings in 2024 (33 2/3 frames in A ball, and 27 1/3 innings at high-A).  Starting 10 of his 18 games, Johnson has also shown some nice ability to miss bats, with a 32.5% strikeout rate in his brief pro career.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) was the first to report that Paredes was heading to Chicago.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Rays were receiving Morel as part of a three-player package, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported Bigge and Johnson as the other two players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Acquire Carson Kelly

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The Rangers are acquiring catcher Carson Kelly from the Tigers to fortify their catching corps. In return, Texas will ship catching prospect Liam Hicks and right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Owens to Detroit. Both teams have announced the deal.

Kelly, 30, was signed by the Tigers back in August of last year after he was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks earlier that month. A second-round pick by the Cardinals in 2012, Kelly was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport when he was shipped to Arizona as part of the return for then-franchise face Paul Goldschmidt prior to the 2019 season. The first three years of Kelly’s tenure in Arizona went solidly enough, as he paired strong work behind the plate with a collective .239/.333/.435 slash line that was good for a league average wRC+ of 100. Kelly took a step back in 2022, however, and his 2023 season with the Diamondbacks was nothing short of abysmal as he hit just .226/.283/.298 in 32 games backing up Gabriel Moreno before being DFA’d.

While Kelly did not immediately show signs of improvement upon joining the Tigers for the stretch run last year, instead hitting a paltry .173/.271/.269 in 18 games, Detroit brass still saw fit to pick up a $3.5MM club option on his services for the 2024 campaign back in November. That decision has since proven to be a wise one, as Kelly has emerged as the club’s primary catcher this year. At the plate, he’s slashed a solid .242/.327/.393 (106 wRC+) with a 19.3% strikeout rate that would be his best in a full season. Meanwhile, he’s received excellent marks from Statcast for his work behind the plate this year including elite grades for his blocking and control of the running game in addition to above-average framing numbers. That strong all-around profile combined with the low financial cost of his remaining salary figured to make Kelly one of the more attractive catching options on the market this summer.

For the Rangers, the addition of Kelly should fortify a position that has been somewhat disappointing for the club this year. After an All-Star campaign in 2023, Jonah Heim has taken a step back offensively this year and is hitting just .234/.281/.346 (75 wRC+) in 90 games, while backup Andrew Knizner has been nothing short of disastrous offensively. In 37 games with the Rangers this year, Knizner has slashed just .167/.183/.211 with a wRC+ of 4, indicating he’s been 96% worse than the league average hitter this year. The addition of Kelly should provide the club with a substantial upgrade over Knizner in their catching tandem while simultaneously allowing the Rangers to lighten the workload of Heim as he works through his struggles and looks to recapture the form that made him one of the league’s most valuable backstops last year.

In order to add Kelly to their lineup, the Rangers are parting with a pair of prospects playing at the Double-A level this year. Owens is perhaps the more notable name of the two, as it’s the second time he’s been traded this year. The righty was acquired by the Rangers back in January as part of the deal that sent outfielder J.P. Martinez to Atlanta. The Braves’ 13th-round pick in the 2019 draft, Owens sports an upper-90’s fastball alongside a slider and a cutter but has typically struggled with command throughout his career. A strong 2024 may be helping to assuage some of those concerns, however, as the righty has pitched to a strong 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning reliever for the Rangers at the Double-A level. He’s struck out a respectable 24.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.5%, and it’s not hard to imagine the 23-year-old pitching in Triple-A for the Tigers before the season comes to an end.

Alongside Owens, the Tigers are also adding Hicks, a Double-A catcher who has shown considerable on-base ability at every level throughout his career. After tearing up the Arizona Fall League to the tune of a .449/.553/.522 slash line in 85 trips to the plate last autumn, Hicks has kicked off his age-25 season by posting a solid .364 on-base percentage in 80 games in a return to the Double-A level. A career .264/.380/.360 hitter in Double-A, Hicks’s lack of power production and lackluster grades from scouts behind the plate have tended to keep him on the fringes of most organizational top 30 lists, but it’s not hard to imagine him being useful catching depth for the big league club in the near future.

Kelly’s departure likely opens up a big league catching job for Dillon Dingler, the club’s #10 prospect according to Baseball America. Dingler receives strong grades for his work behind the plate and has flashed 20-homer power in the minor leagues but entered the 2024 season with serious questions about his contact abilities after striking out 30.7% of the time across parts of three seasons at the Double-A level. Dingler struggled badly in a brief promotion to Triple-A late last year but returned to the level in 2024 and has looked much better at the plate, posting an excellent .308/.379/.559 slash line with a 137 wRC+ and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate. Dingler’s improved offensive numbers should be enough to earn him considerable playing time in the majors behind the plate as part of a tandem with Jake Rogers, who has struggled to a 68 wRC+ in 64 games this year but has posted excellent defensive numbers.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first broke the news of Kelly’s trade to the Rangers. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported the return of Hicks and Owens headed to Detroit.

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres To Acquire Jason Adam From Rays

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The Padres acquired right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The Padres are sending righty Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez to Tampa. The Friars designated right-hander Glenn Otto for assignment to open a roster spot while the Rays reinstated Jeffrey Springs from the 60-day injured list to take Adam’s spot.

Like so many other players before him, Adam bounced around the league before finally becoming his best self in Tampa. He was drafted by the Royals back in 2010 and subsequently spent time in several organizations, including the Padres, as well as the Twins, Blue Jays and Cubs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after 2021, at that point sitting on a 4.71 earned run average through 78 1/3 major league innings. He had struck out 27.9% of batters faced but also given out walks at a high rate of 11.4%.

The Rays signed him going into 2022 and he has taken his game to another level since then. He made 170 appearances as a Ray with a 2.30 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has 24 saves and 51 holds in that time. That includes 47 appearances this year with a 2.49 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is a few ticks below recent years but his 47.3% ground ball rate is a personal best.

All contending clubs are looking to bolster their bullpens at this time of year and that’s especially true of the Padres. Their relief corps has a combined ERA of 4.19, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They’ve received good results from Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and others but guys like Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have struggled, with Peralta currently on the injured list.

Adding Adam and his skills to that relief group is understandably appealing, as is his modest salary. Though he turns 33 years old next month, his long journey to being established at the major league level has led to him having a delayed path to notable earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2023 as a Super Two player and made $1.775MM last year, getting a modest bump to $2.7MM here in 2024. He is eligible for two more arbitration seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

The Padres had to make significant salary cuts in the offseason, which led to Juan Soto getting trading to the Yankees. They have still attempted to field a competitive team here in 2024 and have succeeded. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak that has bumped them to 57-50 and possession of a National League Wild Card spot. But they seemingly want to avoid the competitive balance tax this year and are currently on pace to do so.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number at $225MM, roughly $12MM away from the $237MM base threshold. That appears to give them a decent amount of wiggle room but that’s an unofficial estimate. Adam has less than a $1MM left to be paid out this year, so he will only marginally increase San Diego’s CBT number, perhaps leaving the front office room for further moves.

The Rays aren’t buried in the standings but have decided to do some selling this year anyway, seemingly due to a combination of strong depth as well as a seller’s market. Their record is currently 53-52, just four games out of a playoff spot, yet they have already traded multiple established big leaguers for younger talent. They have sent Zach Eflin to the Orioles, Aaron Civale to the Brewers, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners and now Adam to the Padres.

They still have a chance to compete down the stretch but have not been shy about making these kinds of moves, seemingly content to add some young talent and save some money while trying to backfill the lost talent from within their own system. With Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen nearing returns from elbow surgeries, they had readymade rotation replacements. Baz came up to take Civale’s spot and Springs is about to do the same for Eflin. Arozerena’s playing time can be given to guys like Richie Palacios or Jonny DeLuca, while the club always has intriguing bullpen arms on hand and can likely put together a solid relief corps even without Adam.

Lesko, 20, is viewed as the most intriguing part of their return in this deal. The Padres selected him 15th overall in 2022 and he has received plenty of love from prospect evaluators since then. His time in the minors has seen him miss plenty of bats but also the strike zone. He has thrown 69 2/3 innings over 16 starts at the High-A level this year with a 6.46 ERA. He has struck out 25% of batters faced but walked 16.5% of them.

Despite the control issues, he is still considered one of the better prospects in the league. FanGraphs currently lists him #88 overall and MLB Pipeline #76. Baseball America had him #38 overall coming into the year but he’s no longer on the top 100 and was recently bumped to #5 in the Padres’ system. Perhaps the Padres are moving on from a prospect that they have soured on or they have simply accepted this as the price of getting a quality reliever who is affordable and controllable. Either way, Tampa has a strong reputation of getting the best out of players and could perhaps get Lesko back on track in the years to come.

Bush is naturally the son of former big leaguer Homer Bush. The younger Bush was a fourth-round pick of the Padres last year. He is a speed-and-defense specialist with a contact-based approach at the plate. In 130 minor league games, he has seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .290/.383/.379. He also has 65 steals in 76 tries. BA currently ranks him 12th in the Padres’ system.

Gonzalez was a third-round pick last year and BA currently ranks him #8 in the system. He is only hitting .205/.322/.230 in Single-A this year but is projected to potentially be a two-way player from behind the plate someday.

Otto was claimed off waivers in September. He began the year on the injured list with a right teres major strain. He began a rehab assignment in early June and was optioned later that month. He has tossed 15 1/3 innings in the minors this year with a 7.63 ERA. The Friars will have a few days to consider trades or put him on waivers.

The Padres have made a notable upgrade to their bullpen for the stretch run but surely aren’t done. Bob Nightengale of USA reports on X that they are now going to turn their attentions to the rotation. The Rays have already made a number of future-focused moves but could perhaps consider more, with players like Pete Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz candidates to go in the coming days.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Adam was heading to the Padres on X. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported Lesko’s inclusion on X. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported on X that Bush and a third prospect were also going to Tampa. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first relayed Gonzalez on X.

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