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Archives for January 2024

NL East Notes: Fried, Garrett, Peralta, Mets

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Max Fried is feeling healthy after an injury-plagued 2023 season, and the Braves ace is looking to focus just on baseball rather than a possible trip to free agency next winter.  “I feel like a lot of that is, I would say it’s out of my control right now,” Fried told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano and other reporters.  “But the Braves do things a certain way, and I know that privacy and having that just kind of be more behind closed doors is the way things are done, so I’m gonna respect that.  But I know that I love being here, and I’m really excited to get started with this group….We didn’t accomplish what we wanted to last year, but I know that we have a really determined group, and I’m really excited to get started.”

It isn’t known whether or not the Braves and Fried’s reps at CAA have had any more talks since the two sides discussed an extension last spring, since as Fried noted, the Braves tend to avoid leaks when it comes to transactional or contract news.  Atlanta is more aggressive than any other club when it comes to extending players, yet the fact that Fried has gotten so close to free agency might hint that either side might ultimately be comfortable in parting ways next winter.

More from around the NL East…

  • Stone Garrett’s season ended on August 23, when the Nationals outfielder fractured his left fibula and broke his left ankle crashing into Yankee Stadium’s right field wall in pursuit of a home run ball.  The Washington Post’s Andrew Golden has an update on Garrett’s status, writing that the outfielder has been proceeding as planned with his six-month recovery projection and might be ready for the start of Spring Training, though both Garrett and the Nats will proceed with caution.  Garrett discussed many aspects of his rehab process, providing some interesting details into the physical and mental challenges that go into recovering from such a serious pair of injuries.  The 28-year-old Garrett has hit an impressive .271/.335/.477 over 355 career plate appearances with the Diamondbacks and Nationals, and looks to have earned himself a more regular spot in Washington’s lineup if he is healthy.
  • The relief corps has been a target area for the Mets this offseason, including the recent re-signing of Adam Ottavino.  SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets still weighing whether or not to add yet another reliever to the mix, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that the club has a particular interest in left-handed bullpen help, with Wandy Peralta one of the names under consideration.  Peralta was initially connected to the Mets earlier this month, and he is no stranger to the Big Apple after pitching the last three seasons with the Yankees (new Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is also the Yankees’ ex-bench coach).  Brooks Raley is currently the only southpaw slated for a regular role in the Amazins’ bullpen, so some more lefty depth would certainly appear to be a useful addition.

Rockies Notes: Marquez, Senzatela, Freeland, Bryant

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Pitching injuries defined the Rockies’ 103-loss 2023 season, as the team had a seemingly endless string of hurlers missing time with both minor and major ailments.  The top of the rotation was hit particularly hard, with German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela both undergoing Tommy John surgeries that will stretch their time on the injured list into 2024.

Rockies GM Bill Schmidt provided some updates (to Patrick Lyons and other reporters) on the two right-handers at the team’s Fan Fest event this weekend.  The club is hopeful Marquez can return sometime after the All-Star break, which fits the normal TJ recovery timeline given that Marquez underwent his procedure last May.

Unfortunately, that same timeline puts Senzatela’s entire 2024 season in doubt.  Senzatela had his surgery in July, and thus Schmidt doesn’t “anticipate [him] up here” on Colorado’s active roster.  If all goes well, Senzatela will be able to pitch for the Rockies’ Triple-A team near the end of the minor league season, with an eye towards the righty banking some innings and gaining some peace of mind ahead of a more normal offseason.

Colorado has invested heavily in both pitchers as part of its eternal search for rotation stability.  Marquez signed a five-year, $43MM extension that covered the 2019-23 seasons, and also included a $16MM club option for 2024.  Rather than buy out that option for $2.5MM in the wake of Marquez’s TJ surgery, the Rox instead worked out a new two-year extension that will pay Marquez $20MM over the next two seasons, with another $10MM available in bonuses based on roster time and innings pitched.

Senzatela inked a five-year, $50.5MM extension in October 2021 that also included a club option ($14MM in 2027).  Senzatela was already under arbitration control through 2023, so had that deal not been signed, the righty might’ve been in free agency right now and facing an uncertain near future as he recovered from his surgery.  The Rockies haven’t gotten much return on their investment since Senzatela has thrown only 100 innings over the last two seasons — his 2022 campaign was also cut short by a torn ACL.

Since it remains to be seen how much Marquez or Senzatela will factor into the 2024 season, the Rockies face an even greater pressure to fill innings.  The Rox signed Dakota Hudson and acquired Cal Quantrill in a trade with the Guardians, but they’ll also be relying on in-house options to contribute, none moreso than de facto staff ace Kyle Freeland.  However, it has been some time since Freeland has looked like a true frontline pitcher — after finishing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018, the southpaw has battled injuries while posting a 4.96 ERA over 626 innings from 2019-23.

That includes a 5.03 ERA in 155 2/3 frames last season, as Freeland missed time with a separated shoulder and then an oblique strain that ultimately ended his season.  The good news is that Freeland is now feeling recovered from more than just his 2023 injury woes.

“I told [manager Bud Black] and a couple of our other coaches how my arm and my body really hasn’t felt this good since 2021,” Freeland told reporters at Fan Fest, including Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette.  “It’s very exciting for me.  We discussed my velocity last year, and one thing I really tried to work on this offseason is trying to get that back — doing stuff for my shoulder and stuff like that to make sure that I’m as healthy as possible going into camp.”

Kris Bryant is looking to avoid the injured list and tally his first full season in a Colorado uniform.  Since signing his seven-year, $182MM contract during the 2021-22 offseason, Bryant has played in just 122 of 324 games due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot, a bruised left heel, and a fractured finger.

“I feel fortunate that I’m healthy right now and the offseason has been great,” Bryant told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders.  In terms of his frustration over the last two seasons, Bryant said that “when I’m not performing to my standard it eats at me….When you play this game this long, certain things are going to happen, but I know that there are much better days ahead in my future.”

It remains to be seen if Bryant can ever regain his old MVP form, and while Bryant’s numbers haven’t been good over the last two years, the injuries provide a natural context for his struggles.  Bryant hit .306/.376/.475 over 181 plate appearances in 2022, but then only .233/.313/.367 in 335 PA last season.  Looking ahead to 2024, the Rockies intend to use Bryant primarily as a first baseman in order to help keep him healthy, but he’ll also get some work as a DH and right fielder.  Bryant might possibly also see the odd game in left field when a left-hander is on the mound, but Nolan Jones is slated to take the bulk of work as Colorado’s regular left fielder.

Guardians Sign Carlos Carrasco To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: Carrasco will earn a base salary of $2MM if he makes the Guardians’ active roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes.

JAN. 27: Veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco is in agreement with the Guardians on a minor league deal with an invite to big league Spring Training, according to Zack Meisel of The Athletic.

It’s a reunion between the sides, as Carrasco first joined Cleveland in a trade with the Phillies back in 2009 and made his big league debut shortly thereafter. The righty spent more than a decade with the club, pitching to a 3.77 ERA and 3.42 FIP across 1,242 1/3 innings of work in Cleveland. While he struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness early in his tenure with the club, Carrasco eventually settled in to become a quality mid-rotation arm for the club and even earned votes for the AL Cy Young award in both 2015 and 2017. On the heels of a strong 2020 season where Carrasco pitched to a 2.91 ERA across 12 starts, the veteran right-hander was included alongside Francisco Lindor in the blockbuster deal that brought Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene to Cleveland.

Upon joining Lindor in Queens, the then-34-year-old Carrasco quickly began to struggle. Though he posted solid back-of-the-rotation numbers for the Mets in 2022, both the 2021 and 2023 seasons saw Carrasco post ERAs north of 6.00 while managing less than 100 innings of work due to injuries. As Carrasco has entered his mid-thirties, it’s become increasingly difficult for the righty to stay on the field. He battled a hamstring strain and an elbow procedure in 2021, an oblique strain in 2022, and in 2023 suffered from both a bone spur in his elbow and a late-season finger fracture.

Now headed into his age-37 season with a 4.87 ERA in 443 2/3 innings of work dating back to the 2019 season, it’s fair to wonder how much the veteran hurler still has left in the tank. With that being said, bringing a longtime of the club back into the fold on a minor league deal is an incredibly low-risk decision for the Guardians to make. Even if Carrasco is unable to return to the form he flashed in 2022 and provide the club with quality back-of-the-rotation production, bringing a beloved veteran of 14 big league seasons into the club for Spring Training can only help Cleveland’s young rotation arms (such as Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams) as they look to improve upon strong rookie performances in their sophomore seasons.

Mariners Sign Cole Tucker To Minors Contract

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The Mariners have signed utiltyman Cole Tucker to a minor league deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (X link).  The contract contains an invitation to Seattle’s big league Spring Training camp.

Tucker also signed a minors deal with the Rockies last winter, though it didn’t lead to much time in the majors.  His contract wasn’t selected to the active roster until August, and Tucker appeared in only five MLB games amidst twice being designated for assignment and then outrighted off the 40-man roster.  At season’s end, Tucker had the ability to elect minor league free agency and hit the open market once more.

Picked 24th overall in the 2014 draft, Tucker showed flashes of that high draft pedigree during his time in the Pirates’ farm system, but he has a modest .250/.350/.382 slash line over 1107 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level.  The Pirates gave him multiple looks in the majors, but Tucker has struggled to a .216/.266/.318 slash over 479 PA against MLB pitching.  Pittsburgh DFA’ed Tucker during the 2022 season and he was claimed off waivers by the Diamondbacks, though the Phoenix native didn’t receive any time at the big league level with his hometown team.

Tucker was drafted as a shortstop but has moved into more of a multi-positional role in an effort to increase his value of catching onto another big league roster.  Between this positional versatility and a switch-hitting approach, Tucker fits the profile of a useful bench piece if he can get any consistency going at the plate.  The Mariners have Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore, and Sam Haggerty already lined up for roster spots, so while Tucker may face an uphill battle in winning a job in Spring Training, he could be a good depth piece for Triple-A if he agrees to remain in Seattle’s organization.

Teams Showing Interest In Brandon Crawford

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To this point in the winter, the market surrounding Brandon Crawford has been all but silent in the public sphere, with no rumors of note connecting the longtime shortstop to interested clubs throughout the offseason. That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been interest in the 13-year MLB veteran’s services, however. In fact, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that Crawford has drawn interest from multiple teams this winter. Rosenthal adds that while Crawford would consider a move off shortstop to second or third base this winter, he could decide to retire “if the right opportunity does not arise.”

Crawford, who celebrated his 37th birthday last week, is coming off a difficult 2023 season where he missed time throughout the campaign with calf, hamstring, forearm, and knee issues that surely hampered his performance throughout the year. The veteran slashed a paltry .194/.273/.314 in 320 trips to the plate with the Giants. He remained a quality defender per Statcast with +6 Outs Above Average at shortstop in spite of the offensive struggles, though Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved were far more skeptical of his performance, grading him at a brutal -14 figure that was bottom three among shortstops last season.

Despite the varied opinions on his defensive chops at shortstop at this point in his career and his recent struggles at the plate, it’s not hard to see why some teams would have interest in adding Crawford to their infield mix. After all, the veteran is just two seasons removed from an explosive 2021 campaign where he slashed .298/.377/.522 while finishing fourth in NL MVP voting. What’s more, as a left-handed hitting infielder with a career .249/.323/.403 slash line against right-handers, Crawford could perhaps provide a counterbalance to the infield mix of a club heavy on right-handed hitters.

Perhaps the strongest point in Crawford’s favor as he seeks a role in the majors for the 2024 campaign is the dearth of shortstop options available this winter. As things stand, the class is led by Tim Anderson, who is coming off a platform season even weaker on both sides of the ball than that of Crawford, and Amed Rosario, who pairs a below-average offensive season with defense at shortstop that routinely ranks among the worst in the majors according to defensive metrics. While second and third base offer some stronger options, this winter’s infield class as a whole is unusually thing, particularly for a club who can’t afford to make a run for third baseman Matt Chapman.

Rosenthal does not mention which specific teams have interest in Crawford’s services, though he does make clear that a reunion between Crawford and the Giants “appears out of the question.” That’s not necessarily a surprise, as the Giants have been frequently connected to Chapman this winter and appear poised to give top prospect Marco Luciano the keys to shortstop after he made his big league debut late last year.

As Crawford searches for a new organization for the first time in his 16-year professional career, there are a few speculative fits that could make sense for his services. Should Crawford wish to finish out his career in the bay area, crossing the bay to play for the A’s during their final season in Oakland could allow him to do that while offering the young A’s roster a veteran leader who can plug the club’s obvious hole at shortstop, where Nick Allen and Rule 5 pick Darell Hernaiz appear to be the best remaining options. Looking beyond the bay area, the Marlins, Mariners, Rays, and Pirates are among the teams who could use additional infield help that wouldn’t break the bank.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Twins, deGrom

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While adding to the front of the rotation once appeared to be a top priority for the Red Sox this winter, they’ve largely come up short in that regard as they simply swapped Chris Sale out for Lucas Giolito in their rotation mix. More recently, it appears the club has begun looking for other options in their quest to improve the club’s pitching staff. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported recently that the club has interest in right-handers Jakob Junis and Codi Heuer.

Junis, 31, defied the odds as a 29th-round pick by the Royals in the 2011 draft and managed to make the majors during the 2017 season. In the years since then, the right-hander has managed to put together a solid career while swinging between the bullpen and the rotation for both Kansas City and San Francisco. While he typically offered roughly league average production for most of his career, Junis enjoyed a career year with the Giants this past season as he pitched to a 3.87 ERA with a 3.74 FIP in 86 innings of work. In 40 appearances for San Francisco last year, Junis struck out a career-best 26.2% of batters faced while walking just 5.7%.

Impressive as Junis was last season, the right-hander is unlikely to be an impactful addition to the Red Sox rotation mix if signed as he tended to pitch most effectively in shorter bursts last year. The righty surrendered a 5.32 ERA in 31 innings of work across nine appearances where he threw 50 pitches or more last year. By contrast, Junis posted a strong 2.95 ERA across 39 2/3 innings of work in 26 appearances where he threw 40 pitches or less. Junis’s success in shorter appearances could make him an interesting relief option for the Red Sox, particularly if the club parts with closer Kenley Jansen before Opening Day.

Heuer, meanwhile, would be more of a speculative addition by the Red Sox. The right-hander last pitched in the majors back in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow, but sports a solid 3.56 ERA and 3.66 FIP across 91 innings of work in the majors between the White Sox and Cubs. The righty was nothing short of dominant for the south siders during the 2020 season in particular, as he paired a 50% groundball rate with a upper-90s heater that allowed him to strike out 27.2% of batters faced in 21 appearances. The Cubs non-tendered Heuer earlier this offseason, likely thanks to his two-year layoff from pitching while rehabbing from multiple elbow issues. Still, the 27-year-old hurler has flashed set-up caliber skills during his limited big league appearances and could be a savvy add to the Boston bullpen if healthy.

More from around the American League…

  • The Twins are lacking in starting pitching depth after losing right-handers Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle in free agency earlier this winter, and GM Thad Levine acknowledged that concern during a recent appearance on MLBNetwork Radio. During the appearance, Levine noted that the club feels comfortable with its current starting five of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland, but that hasn’t stopped the club from exploring both the trade and free agent markets for other rotation options. Bolstering the club’s rotation mix would not only provide the club with much-needed depth to safeguard against injury but could also give Varland competition for the fifth-starter role, allowing him to return to the multi-inning bullpen role in which he thrived late last season. Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, and Hyun Jin Ryu are among the mid-level rotation options still available this winter.
  • Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom made just six starts for the reigning World Series champions before undergoing Tommy John surgery last spring, but optimism remains at the oft-injured ace will be able to contribute to the club at some point during the 2024 campaign. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, deGrom provided a health update to reporters during the club’s FanFest this weekend. The righty indicated that his arm is feeling good seven months removed from going under the knife and that he currently plans to begin throwing again “sometime this spring.” While deGrom did not mention a timetable for his return to the big league mound, the update tracks with previous comments from the right-hander back in October, which indicated he was targeting a return to the majors in August of 2024. Among the most talented pitchers of his generation, it’s hard to overstate the potential impact deGrom could have for the Rangers this year if he’s available for the stretch run and a potential playoff push. Over his past 108 starts dating back to the 2018 season, deGrom has posted a 2.08 ERA with a near-matching 2.11 FIP and a whopping 921 strikeouts in just 675 2/3 innings of work.

Mariners Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Mariners have begun discussing a trade for right-hander Dylan Cease with the White Sox, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale suggests that the White Sox are seeking a package centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, Seattle’s pair of cost-controlled righty starters. There’s no indications that a deal is particularly close or even likely, with Nightengale noting that the White Sox appear likely to retain Cease through the start of the 2024 season if a deal with Seattle doesn’t come together. That sentiment echoes other recent reports regarding Cease’s trade candidacy that have cast doubt on the likelihood he changes uniforms before Opening Day.

The report marks the first time the Mariners have been connected to Cease this winter. The right-hander has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this offseason with the Yankees, Reds, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs rumored to have had interest at one point or another. Despite that widespread interest, teams have largely appeared to balk at the high asking price the White Sox have set for Cease’s services. A report last month indicated that the club requested a package of four of the Cincinnati’s top prospects in negotiations with the Reds earlier this winter, and Nightengale added that talks between the White Sox and Orioles regarding Cease have “stopped” at this point in the offseason.

In negotiations with the Mariners, it appears the White Sox have pivoted from their previous ask of a hefty prospect package to instead focus on big-league ready talent. It’s an understandable move for the club to make. Woo and Miller are entering their age-24 and -25 seasons, respectively, coming off solid rookie campaigns with six seasons of team control remaining. Either righty would not only be able to immediately replace Cease in the club’s rotation mix, but would give the club another long-term asset to build around alongside star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Robert is under team control for the next four seasons.

As for Seattle, adding Cease to their starting staff would give the club perhaps the strongest rotation in the majors. Cease is coming off a relative down season on the mound where he posted a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings of work but is just one season removed from a 2022 campaign where he placed second in AL Cy Young award voting. Over the past three seasons, Cease sports a solid 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate, numbers that paint him as a solid #2 starter. The 28-year-old would likely slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside Logan Gilbert behind ace Luis Castillo and young star George Kirby, with whichever of Woo or Miller remained with the Mariners rounding out the club’s starting rotation.

Replacing Miller or Woo with Cease in the rotation would provide the club with additional certainty in a rotation that figures to lean heavily on young players. The most experienced pitcher aside from Castillo who currently projects for the club’s starting rotation is Gilbert, who is entering just the fourth season of his career in 2024. Kirby has just two MLB seasons under his belt, while both Miller and Woo are entering their sophomore campaigns with just 25 and 18 big league starts respectively under their belts.

Cease, by contrast, has been among the most durable starters in the league in recent years with 97 starts over the past three seasons. For a team that has long valued starting pitching depth but parted with both Marco Gonzales while swapping Robbie Ray for Anthony DeSclafani earlier this offseason, bringing a durable veteran arm in place of a young player who has yet to make 30 starts in a big league season could provide the club with an opportunity to make up for the innings lost by parting with Gonzales and Ray.

On the other hand, it would nonetheless be something of a surprise to see Seattle part with one of their young, cost-controlled arms in a deal that wouldn’t address an area of greater need such as the club’s infield, where Josh Rojas and Luis Urias project to be the everyday starters at second and third base. In addition to shopping for another infielder to add to the club’s mix, the Mariners have expressed interest in fortifying their relief corps, which currently features Andres Munoz and Matt Brash as its back-end options after the club dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks last summer. Recent comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also seemed to cast doubt on the possibility of a deal involving Miller or Woo, as he suggested that retaining the duo was “Plan A” for their offseason.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Hernandez, Pederson, Ray

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While veteran utility player Enrique Hernandez is drawing interest from the Angels among several other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Halos fear that Hernandez prefers to return to the Dodgers, with whom he played from 2015 to 2020 before the club re-acquired him at the 2023 trade deadline in a deal with the Red Sox.

Hernandez, 32, sports the versatility to play anywhere on the diamond except catcher. While the veteran struggled at the plate during his time in Boston last year, he enjoyed a resurgence upon returning to L.A. with a respectable .262/.308/.423 slash line in 185 plate appearances. If Hernandez were able to replicate those offensive numbers over a full season in 2024, that roughly league average offense and his positional versatility would combine to make him among the more valuable bench options in the game. With that being said, Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers appear to have their priorities focused elsewhere as they search for a high-leverage bullpen arm to complement the likes of Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips.

Dodgers bullpen arms posted a strong 3.42 ERA last season, the third-best figure in the majors behind only the Yankees and Brewers. Nonetheless, it’s sensible for the club to look for relief upgrades. After all, the club’s production out of the bullpen dramatically improved upon their acquisition of veteran righty Ryan Brasier, who posted an eye-popping 0.70 ERA in 39 appearances with L.A. after being acquired from the Red Sox last June. Prior to Brasier’s arrival, the Dodgers’ bullpen was struggling to an ERA of 4.94, bottom-two in the majors alongside the lowly A’s. To that end, Rosenthal suggests the club could look to reunite with Brasier or perhaps even longtime closer Kenley Jansen, who the Red Sox are reportedly shopping this winter.

More from around the NL West…

  • Rosenthal also discusses the recent deal between the Diamondbacks and lefty slugger Joc Pederson. Rosenthal notes that prior to accepting a fourth consecutive one-year deal in free agency Pederson indicated to Arizona that he hopes to “restore his value” with the club in 2024 before returning to free agency in search of a multi-year pact. For Pederson, Rosenthal suggests that would involve showing he’s more than a platoon DH. The Diamondbacks’ outfield mix is a fairly crowded one with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll entrenched as regulars alongside a litany of potential options like Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and even Dominic Fletcher. Each of the aforementioned names is a stronger defender in the outfield than Pederson, so the 31-year-old could instead look to boost his stock by playing more regularly against southpaws, against whom he has taken just 606 plate appearances during his entire career.
  • Newly-acquired Giants southpaw Robbie Ray spoke to reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) as he rehabs from UCL and flexor tendon surgery. The 32-year-old southpaw said it feels as though he has a “brand new elbow,” and that he hopes to begin throwing off a mound early on during Spring Training. In terms of a timetable for his return to the big league pitching staff, Ray suggests that a return around the All-Star break would be a “best-case scenario.” The 2021 AL Cy Young award winner, Ray posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.94 FIP in 65 starts with the Blue Jays and Mariners the past three seasons, though only one of those starts came in 2023 before Ray went under the knife back in May of last year. His eventual return should bolster a San Francisco rotation that currently figures to feature Logan Webb, Ross Stripling, and newly-signed righty Jordan Hicks alongside youngsters Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn.

Cubs Sign Hector Neris

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The Cubs have signed right-hander Hector Neris to a one-year, $9MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via X).  There is a $9MM club option attached for the 2025 season, and that vests into a player option if Neris makes at least 60 appearances this season.  Between that option and additional incentive bonuses, the deal could be worth as much as $23.25 over the two seasons.  Neris is represented by Octagon.

Best known for his time as the Phillies’ closer, Neris has spent the last two seasons in Houston, and is coming off (technically) the best year of his decade-long Major League career.  Neris posted a 1.71 ERA over 68 1/3 innings out of the Astros’ bullpen, with an excellent 28.2% strikeout rate and some of the best soft-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball.

There were a few red flags, however, which is likely why the righty landed what is officially just a one-year guarantee.  Neris’ fastball velocity dropped to 93mph in 2023, rather markedly down from the 94.3mph average of his first nine seasons.  He also had an 11.4% walk rate, marking the third time in the last four seasons that Neris’ walk rate has sat within the bottom 23rd percentile of all pitches.  With a tiny .219 BABIP and a big 90.5% strand rate also aiding his efforts, Neris’ 3.89 SIERA was over two runs higher than his real-world ERA.

It’s fair to assume that some regression is in order, and these troubling secondary metrics aren’t exactly a great sign for a pitcher who turns 35 in June.  However, even if Neris’ 2024 ERA is closer to that 3.89 figure, he still figures to bring value to Chicago’s relief corps in terms of both results and durability.  Neris has a league-best 307 appearances since the start of the 2019 season, and a stint on the COVID-related injury list in 2020 marks the only time Neris has ever appeared on the IL during his big league career.

This kind of durability holds particular appeal for a Cubs team that was hit hard with bullpen injuries down the stretch, which contributed to Chicago’s 12-16 record in September and subsequent near-miss of a wild card berth.  The Cubs were naturally known to be looking for relief help, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has traditionally been wary about committing big money to the pen given the year-to-year volatility of many relievers.

In that sense, Neris’ contract represents more aggression even if it remains a one-year deal, considering that the Cubs haven’t gone beyond $5MM on a relief pitcher since signing Craig Kimbrel in June 2019.  Should Neris eat his usual amount of innings, hitting the 60-appearance threshold shouldn’t be too much of an issue, and thus he would top the two-year, $15MM deal that MLBTR projected for the reliever at the start of the offseason.  Neris ranked 46th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.

Neris has a similar clause in his previous deal, a two-year/$17MM pact signed with Houston in the 2021-22 offseason.  The Astros held an $8.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) on Neris for 2024 that vested into a player option if Neris both passed a physical after the 2023 campaign, and if he made at least 110 appearances over the course of the two seasons.  Neris ended pitching in 141 games, and then opted to decline his player option to re-enter the market in search of a richer deal.

Adbert Alzolay blossomed as the Cubs’ closer in 2023, and Neris will now step right in as Wrigleyville’s top setup option.  Neris joins Yency Almonte as newcomers in the relief corps, and it can’t be assumed that the Cubs are now done with their bullpen shopping.  Adding another veteran on at least a minor league deal seems like a possibility, and if Neris represents a bit of a splashy spend, perhaps Chicago could look for another reliever on a guaranteed deal within that sub-$5MM comfort zone.

The Cubs’ payroll now sits at roughly $196.3MM, and there’s still plenty of room to go before Chicago hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold.  A big-ticket signing like Cody Bellinger could naturally absorb a lot of that remaining space, but there’s still plenty of flexibility for Hoyer during what has been a pretty quiet winter overall for the Cubs.  The Shohei Ohtani pursuit carried a lot of the team’s attention in the offseason’s first month, though the Cubs have since added Shota Imanaga and Neris in free agency, while also adding Almonte and Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers.

The Astros, Cardinals, Mets, Rangers, and Yankees were all linked to Neris at various points this offseason.  Earlier this month, it seemed as if the Rangers and Yankees were looking like the favorites to sign the right-hander, but Chicago ended up emerging to win the bidding.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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