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As long as the Jays don’t bring him back I’ll be ok
who is better D 3b available?
if price is right, he is absolutely needed
@tuna his bat is not good, and he’s an ankle tweak away from losing defensive value, entering his age 31 season. The Springer contract should be a reason to stay away. Sign Urshela for a year, move Vlad to third for a year, hope one of the rookies develops
Vlad at 3rd? You had me up to there. But Your main point is well taken. Ex A’s play very well on their first free agent contract/trade ( the latter more often the case) then diminishing value.
Yes Vlad to 3rd for a season seeing as there are first basemen available in free agency, he came up as 3rd baseman and then became a gold glover at 1st. The Jays need bats and that is one way to add one
Outside observer here.. love Vladdy but dude can absolutely NOT play 3b.
Again, Vlad is not playing 3B nor will he be close to GG caliber at third base. That shipped has sailed.
Zero chance that Vlad plays third. He’d quickly, and by far, become the worst defensive third baseman in MLB.
He can definitely play it well enough so the jays can add a better bat to the lineup like Hoskins
If he could, he never would have moved to 1B to begin with.
No, he can’t. Leave him alone and let him get his bat back.
Yeah I love the Springer signing and would do it all over again as he is not restricting the Jays too much, but I think they are better off going year to year with guys and staying away from Chapman unless he falls to 22 or 23 mil a year for 5 or 6 years. Overpay for sure but not something that is going to kill the team.
His bat is great…for two to three week stretches two or three times a year.
Someone suggested picking up Justin Turner. Keep Vlad at 1b. Turner can play 3rd, DH, and spell Vlad at 1b.
@Mystery, Vlad was an atrocious 3B he had a -23 Rtot in 2019. He should never play 3B regularly ever again. Hoskins has avg -8 Rtot during his career, he’s best suited to be a DH.
The combination of Vlad at 3B and Hoskins at first would be an utter disaster.
It reminds me of when RS fans were suggested that we move Papi to 1st. Youk to 2nd, and Pedey to SS, all to get another bat in the lineup.
Playing Vlad at 3rd and Hoskins at 1st is something I’d pay to see.
Tigers3232, I’m not saying it’s a good idea, but Vlad was 20 years old in’19. He has pretty good hands that would profile fine at the hot corner and he has one of the best arms on the team. Range would be a factor but with the shift limits it might matter a little less. I don’t think it’s any more ludicrous than playing Bichette at SS while going all glove in the outfield. Though Bichette at SS and Vlad at 3B is probably a pretty leaky left side. Trying to find offense somewhere though and moving Vlad up the spectrum might give them more opportunity to get offense in the lineup. Even if it’s only part time in certain matchups so that IKF isn’t your everyday 3B if none of the prospects work out. He is taking fielding practice there to keep it open.
I’d say Vlad’s hands were a problem. Frying pan glove. You are right though, really good arm. Jays need a big OF bat, have Springer DH a little more and hope a Kirk or Varsho figure it out with the bat.
Yeah , people get an idea of what a player is and then that sticks with them their whole life. First impressions I guess. Player development is a thing and Vladdy does like to work on things. He has worked on his feet and glove work and has made enough improvements that I think he would be average to slightly below average, similar to Turner. There would still be some bonehead things that he would do but they would be balanced by the incredible plays that he would make. Same as what he does at first.
@Bull, Vlad played decent at 1B in 2021. He has steadily gotten worse in both seasons since. And 1B is a much easier position. Mind you statistics back that he has steadily gotten worse the last 2 seasons, sorry but people get the idea that they can make statements blindly and that makes them reality. That is simply not the case.
Just keep Chappy as far away from the Yankees as possible. I’m ok with signing Gio though. Get it done Yankees!
AS long as the Giants don’t sign him I’ll be okay. Chapman is a big swing and miss guy, something the Giants (thankfully) are trying to get away from. Plus, despite the post above, JD Davis’ defense bordered on Gold Glove through three quarters of the season. And as mentioned, his offense is actually better than Chapman’s. Add to that, the Giants have a Gold Glove 3b in Casey Schmitt if he can hit. Marco Luciano may be a better fit at third than SS too.
There is absolutely no reason the Giants should sign this over-hyped, expensive player.
Wrong view, Pete. Chapman would have been the second most valuable position player on the Giants behind Thairo had he been on the team last year. His defense makes all the pitchers better. They obviously can’t sign top tier guys, so this is the type of player they are stuck with. I’d rather see Chapman get paid than Charles Johnson’s great great great great great grandkids.
Well, it’s my view.
(I wish it were so easy to keep Charles Johnson’s filthy mitts of Giants money.)
Johnson and the rest of the Giants ownership is willing to spend big. It’s Farhan who keeps dropping the ball.
I don’t have an opinion on Chapman, but I think they have options at third. Shortstop is the greater need.
Yeah I think if you can swing a trade for someone like Kim it would make more sense than doubling up on 3rd basemen, you can move Davis to platoon at first if you do but then you have to find somewhere for Flores or move someone and it becomes a mess vs upgrading at ss and splitting time at 3rd with Davis and rookies
What isn’t talked about much with Chapman is that his defensive numbers are going down. For example, BBRef puts his DWar at 1.6 for 2023. It was 0.6 in 2022 and 1.3 in 2021. His two excellent years, 2018 and 2019, where he posted 2.9 and 3.3 respectively, established his defensive reputation. The bottom line is that he’s slipped a notch defensively. He’s still good but not as good as everyone talks about. His contract is going to be big overpay. Pass.
Matt Olson is extremely underrated defensively and knowing the guy on the other side is that good makes you a bit bolder to make a risky throw.
Yeah Baseball77, it seems that when players earn a reputation for their defense, it gets cemented in people’s mind despite evidence that the defensive results aren’t what they once were. Chapman’s metrics weren’t good in ‘22 but to the eye he was still a good fielder. He just seemed to have a lot of trouble on the transfers as if the ball was stuck in his glove. He also had a few plays where he fielded the ball cleanly and had lots of time but still took too long to make the throw as if he was unfamiliar with the players heading down the line. It led to quite a few infield hits. He was certainly better at that this year but the stats are still more good than great and as you said, it’s his age 31 season. He’s still a very good defender but I think if people assume you are buying an elite defender guaranteed to give you good defensive results for multiple years, you might need a second look. I think a team has to believe at least a bit in the bat to carry some of the value of the contract.
It seems everyone agrees with you. Nobody wants Chappy anywhere near their team at Boras money. The poll has spoken. Hopefully there will be some media exposure to this poll or Boras’s many moles will see it and report back to him. 25 mil + is way to much for defence and slightly better than average hitting when the defence and offence are both showing signs of weakening already.
Matt Olson plays for the Atlanta Braves and he’s very very good, but not part of this discussion.
Did you know? One billionaire owner used to employ both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson–at one time! But he said he was broke so they got traded away.
Pete aren’t you glad we signed Chapman? 🙂
No, not until I see him hit with pop (doubles are ok too), with consistency, and less swing and miss. If he does that and maintains his glove (which looks good so far) then he’s worth the $$.
Ok, fair enough. I appreciate your answer.
And of course, your namesake was a good add. Just hope he gets into the rotation soon.
If you want a guy to get you to the post season he’s pretty awesome. High quality defense and a reasonable amount of offensive production for his position.
If you want someone to help you win a WS he’s a massive overpay. Clearly overwhelmed a lot by good pitchers and it shows in his post season stats.
Chapman would be a great pickup for the Giants. Schmitt can’t hit. Luciano can’t stay healthy. That said, Farhan ain’t fixing this team.
@#FireFarhan – Then Schmitt is in great company. Chapman can’t hit either.
It looks like my comment didn’t age well. I have to admit, it looks like Farhan somehow did some things right and the team is looking MUCH better now. I’m glad we signed Chapman too. I think I might finally change my moniker and screen name. Instead of #FireFaran, maybe #SnellYeah! or something like that
I’m voting the Giants because I think the Cubs have plenty of options at third base. I also think the Giants are desperate enough to give him 5/100+.
I do too & I have him at $25-$30MM/year for those five.
Drascoo- I also think Chapman won’t get anywhere near what this site projected. I don’t even think he gets 5 years. I think 3 and 60 might be all he could expect. And that might be an overpay. The Cubs have better options. Morel will be given every chance to fail first. Chapman might join Polanco as another 30 year old irrelevant player at this point. Nobody is going to break the bank for this guy, or at least they shouldn’t.
Neither Chapman or Polonco are irrelevant, they are complementary pieces however and Chapman wants paid like a middle of the order impact bat.
I agree that 20 million is too much for Chapman, yeah I get he’s a 4 WAR player last year but I worry about that offensive profile and I personally wouldn’t drop 20 plus million on a defense first, shading to only, player.
As said, the Cubs have so many options at third that would be more than solid enough defensively for next to nothing, meaning Chapman would have to provide 17+ million value on offense which he doesn’t.
In a relevant point, Why would you pay Chapman when you can get Polanco in a trade and have him for 10 million this year and then have him next year on a Club option for the same money and a 1 million dollar buyout? That’s a way better option than Chapman and I don’t like either one quite frankly.
I guess the question would be “what do you have to give up in trade”.
I would take either if the terms were right but I doubt either would be right for me to want either.
It seems like the Twins are just hoping to dump the salary but are still asking for the moon. Not sure why the Twins are looking to dump that much salary when you know the TV thing will get worked out. I just looked at the Twins rotation on Spotrac and after Pablo Lopez it looks pretty thin. And nobody is giving a big league starter for him. Hey what about Smyly? Oh crap that’s right he makes 11 million 1 more than Polanco. My bad.
Polanco should not be relied upon by any team as a 3B, except to give the regular a day off once in a while. I like him, but he’s terrible at 3B. May as well play Morel there.
I like Joe Ryan… the fact he dominated the Cubs last year not withstanding.
Chapman is better than Polanco. A lot better.
He’s going to get more than 3 years.
Well I mean Ohtani got a 20 year deal, technically.
20 mil a year doesnt get you much. He will clear 25/yr easily–maybe even get to 30–but absolutely I agree 3 years is what hell get lengthwise.
They have options but none of them are good. What the heck have you been smoking? Madrigal has no power; Wisdom is certainly not an every day player, and Morel sucks defensively so no, you do not have options. Why they didn’t re-sign Candelario is beyond me. Reasonable cost, switch-hitter and someone who is good enough for a team who already had a stable of good young infielders but not for a Cubs team that has no one?
Cubs have a couple guys in the minors as options as well. They didn’t re-sign Candelario because he isn’t as good as people think and they only need a 1-2 year stop gap until Matt Shaw is ready (which may be sooner then later).
Shaw is ready mid 2025 at the earliest and from what I have read doesnt have the arm for 3b. Chapman is a really good player not sure why people don’t understand this.
You can increase arm strength. P’s do it all the time. it’s not a big deal. Not to mention that most throws at 3B don’t have to be thrown that hard if you throw it early( See Dansby Swanson) who’s throws from SS could barely break a pane of glass by the time they gt to 1B, If they’re delivered on time. And how many plays actually get made from deep down the line at 3B? We just need somebody to make the everyday plays. I’m pretty sure Madrigal totally disproves your post because I didn’t think there was any realistic way he could play there.
Best case scenario Shaw is ready mid 2025. That’s best case. Could be mid 2026. Could be he can’t play 3b defensively. Could be he never develops into a big league regular.
@Joel: Could be, You’re wrong?
I think people are just saying Chapman is not worthy of a 150 mil + commitment. He’s a fine player.
How do you know what he will sign for?
I don’t understand why commenter on this site think they are smarter than all the GMs in baseball. As if he’s going to get some massive contract.
I don’t know about $150M, but I’d assume Chapman get over $100M. He’ll b 31 this season I could see him getting a 5 or 6 year deal, especially with how weak this free agent class is for hitters.
You’re just proving that you have no idea how good the Cubs prospects are. Overpaying for a 3B would be a stupid idea when all you have to do is have a little patience. Morel has the ability to play 3B and Counsell should be able to work with him as most of his problems at 3B are throwing errors. That’s easily fixable. Vasquez is a decent short term option and Shaw is the long shot and Triantos was drafted as a 3B before moving on to 2B. Either could be in the mix soon so there’s no reason to block them with clowns. The Cubs have already blocked Caissie and Alcantara unless they convert Alcantara too a CF and then what about PCA? One more stupid contract is the last thing the Cubs need.
Chapman is a good player. I don’t understand why you think otherwise. He’s been comparable to Nolan Arenado the last 6 years. Great glove and good bat at a thin position. The Cubs had freaking Patrick Wisdom playing at 3b the last few years. He’s miles better than Wisdom.
Coop is arguably the angriest poster on here and he doesn’t follow the Cubs farm system at all.
It’s funny to me that claims Madrigal cannot hit, he actually can hit and honestly, with his plus defense, probably has the inside track at third. Honestly, does anyone else realize that Nick freaking Madrigal was a gold glove level defender at third? 500 innings, 8! DRS and 10! OAA and considering that is the first time he ever played third base that is flat out amazing! He cannot stay on the field but I’d take 24 DRS and 30 OAA at third base. Btw, a standard pace Madrigal also would have had 32 doubles, 4 home runs, 20 steals, 2 triples while posting a 3 WAR
Joel is just a Cardinal fan who knows absolutely nothing about the Cubs. Just ignore and refute him.
Madrigal’s biggest problem is staying on the field (injuries). He looks very awkward at 3B, but he somehow was able to do it well last season. I commend him for that!
Agree that Chapman is a good player and way better than Wisdom, but he isn’t the right fit on the Cubs long term. As another poster said, they have to stop blocking their prospects. Cubs should stick with their current 3B options and focus on resigning Bellinger, a #2/3 caliber SP, and a couple bullpen arms.
If Cubs prospects are great then why even sign free agents?
Let me rephrase. Who would you sign?
I remember watching Madrigal misplay one ball early on the season, I can’t remember if it was a hopper that went over his head or a lazy line drive but I remember it being a play most third basemen make. Not the easiest play but a very playable ball.
After that though, I rarely saw Madrigal make the wrong play.
Madrigal seems like a perfect utility guy. But to count on him to start everyday seems crazy.
Egrossen- I actually laughed out loud when Ross put him there. I give Drascoo credit for believing in him because nobody else did. I just think the Cubs have way better options than Madrigal at every turn for that matter. Because of his injury history basically makes him not a very good trade piece. He’s probably just going to be released or traded for peanuts at some point I’m afraid.
Who would you sign fella?
Or to put it simply, When the Cubs do start signing people, Ole Nicky Two Strike Crow Hop Step’s 40 man slot will become a casualty and a DFA candidate. Sorry Drascoo. I’d put a sad face for you here but I can’t.
Nobody at 3B.
Given what the Cubs have, 3rd base isn’t a huge priority but I would look into Gio Ushela due to his ability to play third and first base while most likely landing a 1 to 2 year deal.
Fifteen games isn’t a large sample size but it’s enough for Shaw to start the season at AA. Vazquez is an elite defender at shortstop and has a plus plus arm. Madrigal was one of the best defensive third, basically negating Chapmans biggest asset.
Signing Chapman, given the Cubs bigger needs, would be stupid, a move to make a move to appease a fan base that may not know better.
3b is a weakness of the Cubs and they have very little depth there long term. Loads of top outfield prospects. Pitching and catching are good. 3b is the biggest need both short and long term the Cubs have. I don’t need to be a Cubs fan to know that fella.
As usual you’re wrong. You’re basically always wrong about the Cardinals too. Maybe you should swim in those waters.
If 3b isn’t a huge priority then what is?????
The Cubs are loaded with outfielders short and long term. Middle infield and catcher are set for years. You think they should sign Hader? I imagine Hader and Chapman will get a similar contract. Would you really rather have Hader?
If my team had 1 championship in the last 100 years I don’t think I would be so righteous.
I mean if it ain’t broke right?
Madrigal isn’t a DFA candidate by a long shot. Wisdom, Mastrobouni are more likely but the Cubs have 3 open slots as is.
Madrigal may be replaced as the third baseman for someone like Morel but his place on the bench is secured. Madrigal is a specialist, which is what you need on the bench.
The Cubs do not have a great need at third. Odds are the Cubs role with Morel there with Madrigal as the secondary option.
You don’t see it because you don’t watch the Cubs. Mastobouni is more than solid defensively, can hit a little and has really good speed. Shaw is likely our future at third or the Cubs will move Nico to third and play Shaw at second. Vazquez is a high upside player in AAA now, sick defender whose bat has gotten significantly better.
Chapman isn’t what the Cubs need. Their priority is a middle of the order bat. Not a 6/7 hitter who can play defense at third. We have defense at third and we have plenty of 6/7 hole capable hitters.
What middle of the order bat is available that makes sense for the Cubs? Hoskins perhaps. But he offers no defensive value at all.
“It’s funny to me that claims Madrigal cannot hit, he actually can hit”
His first 2 years with the White Sox he was ok because he hit for a really high average.
Since moving over to the Cubs, his contact rate has plummeted and his power hasn’t improved.
2022 – 66 OPS+ (34 percent worse then average)
2023 – 79 OPS+ (21 percent worse then average)
In his career he has 4 homers over 846 plate appearances.
He has to have astronomical contact rates in order to rate well overall as a hitter with power that limited.
Those who say he can’t hit are actually correct. His glove and versatility are great, but his bat is simply a wet noodle.
There are more options than FA. There is talk that the Red Sox want to trade Casas and move Devers to 1st. Breslow knows the Cubs system up and down since he was in charge of it. Talk the Indians want to trade Naylor. Hoskins would hve to come with the same contract Bellinger got 1 year with an opt out or he’s not going to be here. If the Cubs don’t get guys at their price they’re not going to play. I think that should be obvious. They really need a couple of bullpen guys and 1 more starter. After that they’ll probably be trading for what they want. Like in War Games, Sometimes the best move is not to play.
The Red Sox aren’t trading Casas. Naylor is possibly available but he’s meh.
@Joel
Really not sure why you can’t understand. But let me make this more simple for you:
It would be ridiculous and completely unnecessary for the Cubs to commit anywhere near, either the money OR the years – that Boras and Chapman are believing they are due.
Full Stop!
Hoskins is a decent defender but I want the Cubs to re-sign Bellinger, then options open up. Morel at third becomes a real possibility if Bellinger plays first, that allows us to add at DH or we add at first and play Bellinger in CF for a while.
Naylor makes a lot of sense for the Cubs as well, not a huge impact maker on offense but he hits for a high average and doesn’t strike out much while playing plus defense. He isn’t the impact bat we need but the upside is there and lengthens the line up.
Chapman continues not to make sense because Morel and Wisdom profile very similarly on offense at a fraction of the cost and you really don’t want two guys like Chapman and Morel in the same line up
Why not just move Morel to 1B?
They’re working him out there also.
Sox trade Casas for a quality starter, shift Devers to first to hide his glove, and put Chapman at third.
No way.. Casas us here to stay.
bheath – That’s what you said about Sam Horn, Phil Plantier and Greg Blosser.
Fact is the Red Sox must do something about Devers. They need his offense, they would have to eat a huge dollar amount if they traded him, and they are not gonna convert him to DH with the size of his contract.
Casas could very well be traded for a #1 starting pitcher. It takes value to get value.
Not the worst idea…
I like Casas, but their is a lot of logic to your suggestion.
Miami really needs hitting, both 1B and the OF. And they have a ton of pitching. There has to be a match-up.
Joe – The Marlins already had a trade set up involving Casas, but Bloom turned it down.
What was it?
You don’t get a quality starter for pretty much any 1B.
He is a Boras client. Probably holding out for a premium with the combined position scarcity. He can play defense and has pop but he is an all or nothing hitter. I don’t see anyone giving him more than 20 mil a year but time will tell. I am betting he is being shopped at 25 to 30 per for at least a 5 year contract.
Even the pop has died, he’s an elite glove and you pray for league average offense
His defense is declining, which is par for the course for 3B in their 30’s. It’s such a quickness based position. Same with his HS teammate Arenado.
His declining defense is still among the best. He’s not at peak, but still damn good.
That my view as well. Just because you aren’t Too many fans take a binary approach where, if the guy is no longer a star, he’s a bum.
He hasn’t had a season where he hasn’t been a very, very good player.
3.5 fwar is, “really, really good”? I guess we have different standards.
When he insulted the entire Angels lineup, I gotta feel that closed that market.
Completely forgot about that but you may be right. Chapman actually had a good point that day (pitching around Ohtani made a lot of sense) but he should have found a better way to express himself without insulting the Angels.
He may have, but he insults the Angel lineup then Manoah hits Ward in the face which ended his season. My bet is it didn’t go over well with fans or players or management.
Chapman fits the Giants profile. Jody Davis isn’t a “fringe” fielder, he’s a horrible fielder. Chapman, however, isn’t worth more than $22M per. Injuries and one dimensional bat limit his attractiveness in the lineup. 6th or 7th in the lineup with solid D and 30+ HRs if healthy is his stat card.
Jody Davis hasn’t played in decades. And when he did, he was pretty good.
In fairness, I bet Jody Davis wasn’t very good at 3B.
Ha! Auto correct. He was a decent catcher.
You are not watching the Giants or you wouldn’t be making such absurd observations about JD Davis (not Jody) or suggesting Chapman is a 30 HR guy.
@petesview
I mean, in the prior 2 seasons (excluding last season obviously) Chapman hit 27 hrs. I’m not a big fan of Chapman but it isn’t too entirely farfetched that he could hit 30hrs if he some how signs with a club that has hitter friendly ballpark dimensions. That being said, the giants play in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in MLB.
Try watching a game or two. Davis has worked himself to the point of being a solid defender at worst.
I’ve watched plenty of his games. He’s horrific. If he was decent the Giants wouldn’t even be entertaining the thought of signing him. Davis is a DH with the occasional spot fill when necessary.
“Horrific” equals zero credibility. It’s just not accurate.
I desperately hope the Giants don’t sign him.
Signing free agents only works when you draft, trade and develop players well and have a decent to good core to supplement, something the Giants lack. The Giants seemingly are stuck in “the middle” of mediocrity.
Maybe, but either way, they need to let their young core in Luciano, Schmitt, Fitzgerald, Matos, etc actually play. It’s not fair to judge a young core by half a year of sporadic play where their manager plays them out of position every other day. Signing Chapman for 5 years blocks Schmitt at 3B. I’d rather have a .300 winning percentage, and a full year of letting the rookies play, over a .500 team that’s overpaying aging, downward trending FAs who are blocking the young players.
Completely agree on this.
Schmitt looks to have a good upside.
His first year at the plate reminds me a lot of Matt Williams when he came up.
He just needs consistent play time to learn how to hit the breaking ball or at least recognize it enough to lay off it.
Matty had the same issue.
oldg, Williams is a stellar example. Imagine if the Giants had given up on him after the ’87 season.
Yes but they do need a nod to the casual fan and sign a “big name.”
No they don’t, they need to invest in their young guys.
When Schmitt, Bailey, and Harrison debuted last year, the stadium erupted in standing ovations. Much like the stars they developed for the World Series runs who sold out our park every single game. Our fan base wants players we can root for, not another Matt Morris or Aaron Rowand
had a terrible 2nd half 5 HRs, 15 RBIs .205/307/357 but somehow he’s a 20/25 Mil guy? ok…..
hr per season
36
10 in 35 games
27
27
17
sure, his 2024 wasn’t as good offensively but lots of players have off years.
and his defense was still awesome
Interestingly, his defense hasn’t really been awesome in years. Good, solid, definitely… but DRS of 9, 2, and 12 last few years isn’t the 20+ he used to put up. And OAA only 4 last year, with 3 runs prevented. When the best part of the guy’s game is no longer elite, it’s tough to spend big on him. Somebody likely will though.
Eh, he is still around a four win player, that being said I wouldn’t want him on my favorite team unless he signs incredibly cheap, or a 1 year deal which is extremely unlikely.
For me, it’s another example of why I don’t feel WAR should be viewed as such an absolute certain measure of value. He’s basically an above average player, but his defense elevates his WAR to make him look better than he really is. He’s a bad hitter who draws some walks has HR power and plays solid D. And his D isn’t game changing enough anymore to have that kind of impact. Just my view
His defense is what makes him valuable. WAR isn’t wrong you just don’t want to give someone credit for defense for whatever reason.
No, WAR definitely has flaws and subjectivity, and I could debate relative WAR of comparable players using other measures for sure. I do, but I know it doesn’t have as much impact as WAR would like to say. Interesting that same people will quote DRS and OAA and those measures show him saving between 3 and 12 runs last year, which is minimal to be honest. Yet it vaults his WAR. I give defense credit, just not as much as you want to.
I don’t want to give him more or less credit than he deserves. I don’t care for Chapman one way or another. But to discredit WAR when it doesn’t agree with what you want to believe is ridiculous. That’s why WAR exists. You don’t watch 162 Jays games a year and neither do I so we use WAR. And even if we did watch we don’t necessarily understand defense the way WAR does.
@ma4170
Yeah, war isn’t perfect for sure. But it’s honestly probably the best tool we have available to try to quantify the value of things that are harder to quantify like defense and base running and the value of fielding X position versus fielding position y. A lot of publications I have read estimate a margin for error of anywhere from 0.5-1.2 WAR. There is also three different places that attempt to measure war and they all calculate it differently. We have BBREF- Bwar, Fangraphs- FWAR, and baseball prospectus- WARp. So again, not perfect but it’s an ok estimate if we really want to try to some up one player with one stat. (Which I’m not 100% positive we should.) Sorry for rambling, but i enjoy these conversations as long as they remain civil like they have 🙂
He’s a bad hitter
=======================
He’s never had a season where his OPS was less than 100.
Its an offense first position…
Well throw an injury in there then adjust for age. All that math doesn’t mean jack
“bad hitter” in that context meant can’t hit for average, meaning can’t get base hits reliably when needed, but like I said, does draw walks and has HR power. Overall, he’s a slightly above average hitter.
That variability range makes a lot of sense, and WAR is a good approximation of value, no doubt, but like I said, just not as an absolute measure. Like someone who had a 4.1 WAR one year is definitely better than someone who had a 3.7, yet when you go deeper into all the numbers, you see more value in the lower WAR player. Happens quite a bit, so the 0.5-1.2 makes it more palatable.
I’m not trying to discredit it entirely. I just said it doesn’t represent absolute value, so it’s not the end all, be all. Gives a decent representation of value, not denying that, but there are flaws..
One issue is like many stats, it has a roto baseball approach of looking at the entire year as a composite. From a real baseball value, streaky players can hurt a team more. For Chapman, he had an amazing April, a very good July, and then four months of 633 OPS or lower. That hurts a team badly. A couple of hot months can make overall numbers look great, but he likely contributed to many more losses than wins with that kind of production.
If you don’t use WAR to judge an players overall contribution to his team what do you use?
It’s a good question…. I’ll try not to write a novel. I’m way more into this than I should be, but I look at multiple data points and analytics. Start with OPS since it has the highest correlation with runs, then OPS+, WRC+… I’ll look at production across months (consistency) because as i mentioned that matters. For example, Chapman last year basically only added positive offensive value for 54 games and was a clear negative for 108 (knowing he doesn’t play all 162, that’s just generalization). I’ll look at DRS and OAA, and assume actual runs saved are somewhere between the two. How they perform with runners on base and RISP. Then counting stats bc they still do matter, and total bases because hits are what generate movement and runs. See, I still wrote a damn novel.
And you think that’s better than what WAR does?
I don’t.
WAR is the best way to judge a players contribution to his team. Is it perfect? Nope but it’s the best there isn’t a close second.
Absolutely. Like I said, WAR doesn’t tell you that he was basically an offensive negative for 2/3 of the season, so inevitably led to more losses than wins. It also doesn’t show that he was terrible with RISP, which is why his RBI were so low. It also doesn’t inflate defensive contributions.
As an example, he had the same WAR (on Fangraphs) as Machado, who is comparable enough defensively where impact to runs was minimal (less than 10 runs), but in basically the same number of offensive PA with RISP, Chapman went 217-321-301 with 33 rbi. Machado went 266-331-476 with 64 rbi, which is clear significant additional run producing for Machado value that WAR just isn’t reflecting.
If a guy is really good for part of the season and not nearly as good the rest it balances out. You can’t give a guy less or more credit based on when he produces what he produces you look at the numbers at seasons end.
Driving in runners in scoring position is random it isn’t a skill. That’s why WAR doesn’t give guys more or less credit for performance with RISP.
Of course it’s a skill, and frankly is what matters from a real win/loss perspective. Pressure increases in certain situations, and how people handle it is absolutely part of the overall skill set. It isn’t random or luck. And regardless, it’s what matters as it’s all about scoring and preventing runs.
And it doesn’t balance out over the season – if they’re outstanding for two months and terrible for four, it doesn’t balance out at all. They contribute more to losing than winning. Flip that and they contribute more to winning. Otherwise we’re taking practical common sense out of the equation of value.
What player in MLB history was consistently great at hitting with RISP?
I can look up career RISP stats for many hitters I’m sure, but if hitting is a skill, situational hitting is a skill. Of course, there’s variability year to year, but some are better at handling higher pressure situations than others. That’s probably the biggest value a hitter can provide – capitalizing on run scoring situations.
Name one that is exceptionally good at hitting with RISP for their career. Just name one.
It’s random.
It’s not random, it varies year to year… the study showed sometimes OPS can vary 100-150 points year to year w/ RISP. But it still varies around a central point for each player, and some players’ centers or averages are consistently higher than others. E.g., last three years, Chapman OPS w/ RISP: 671, 769, 622. Machado: 1094, 998, 807. Predictable? No. Variable? Yes. But each year, Machado considerably higher.
Plus, Machado’s RISP OPS was higher than his overall OPS each year and 2 of 3 Chapman’s was lower than his overall w/ 2022 being 12 points higher, so almost the same.
Machado will likely have higher OPS w/ RISP moving forward, though can’t guarantee with certainty, like anything. But it’s irrelevant whether it’s predictive or not – we’re talking about retrospectively evaluating value, which WAR is supposed to do. These huge differences between the two w/ RISP production equal real wins and losses, not theoretical wins. Their WAR was the same last year, but Machado provided far more baseball value in terms of run production than WAR shows. Using one cumulative number to measure players values against each other has flaws and is frankly lazy. If the Jays had Machado over Chapman last year, they win more games based on all of the numbers. Is Chapman still worth 4 wins in a year over the likes of Urshela? Probably, so it still is a helpful guide.
Machado is a better hitter than Chapman. By a lot.
What are their CAREER numbers?
I just cannot see any team going beyond 3 years for Chapman. He’s a question mark offensively and risky in that regard. In fact a make good contract may be in order. There are many, cheaper and younger players who make better options.
Who are the younger players that are better options in the free agent market? The guy is a vacuum at third base, and he consistently is an above league average bat. Teams do pay for defense, too. Chapman has also played through nagging injuries for stretches during his career, rather than sitting out and keeping his batting stats up. I agree that three years would be ideal, but the market demand will probably provide him with five. There are just no better options out there.
I don’t believe I limited my comment to free agents Holden. Many teams (including the Cubs) have internal options that really are just as much a safe bet – as Chapman. Why in the world would the Cubs spend $20M a year for a glove first option at 3B? They could give Vazquez a shot – with Madrigal, Morel and eventually Shaw lurking.
Just what the Cubs don’t need, another so-so player blocking higher ceiling options who are in their own organization.
Chapman is miles better than anything the Cubs have currently.
I did notice that you did not specify free agency, but Chapman is still better than half the league’s starting third basemen. Guardians, Braves, Reds, Red Sox, Orioles, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, Astros, Cardinals and Dodgers have better options. Any other team would be upgrading by signing Chapman.
.240/17hr is above average?
@semut
Ahh yes, because average and home runs are the only thing that is relevant. We totally haven’t moved past that in any way and things like OPS, WRC, WAR, OAA, and FRV don’t exist at all
Pick your stats. I doubt there’s any metrics that make him an above-average hitter at this point in his career
It is when the average is below that. Duh!
I doubt there’s any metrics that make him an above-average hitter at this point in his career
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OPS+ is fairly universally accepted, and he had a 108 last year.
I don’t know why a team interested in Chapman wouldn’t first try to trade for Ha Seong Kim. He’d probably be willing to sign an extension at a more reasonable cost then Boras and Chapman are looking for.
Sure you would have to give up something valuable to get Kim, but the extra years of prime, great defense at SS too in addition to 3b, and potential salary savings seem definitely worth considering.
I really hope the Cubs are just waiting out the market and end up with “bargains” on some combination of Chapman, Bellinger, Hoskins, Montgomery but my gut tells me we’re coming up empty handed this offseason for any meaningful signings.
For the most part, it seems reclamation projects and players that are from California, ie Chapman, will consider playing for the Giants.
They desperately need to build up the Farm.
Off the top of my head, Stripling, Conforto and Manea aren’t from California/reclamation projects.
Chapman is far from a reclamation project. He still put up 3.6 FWAR in 2023 with a relative drop of 10% in value per PA compared to 2022. The expected stats were largely in line with 2022 season but the results were a touch worse (110wRC+ vs 118 wRC+ in 2022). He missed a bit of time due to a freak finger injury when he dropped a dumbbell on his finger, but had he stayed healthy he likely would have produced nearly 4 wins in 2023.
Yeah he tried to play through that finger injury and the results weren’t good. I do think he’ll be better offensively in 2024 but I expect him to be good, not great. I’m a Jays fan, and I don’t think they should sign him for anything more than 4/80. I think some other team will go beyond that.
I’m in the same boat that I’d love to have Chapman return to the Jays but only at a cost that ultimately makes sense. I think he will still be a very productive player for at least a few more seasons but the boom/bust nature of his offensive profile bakes in a lot of risk to a long term deal. Hopefully as the offseason progresses the contract ask will come down in range to a deal where he has a chance to provide appropriate value. He’s likely the best available third base option that the team can attain at this point but the eventual contract needs to make sense.
Why do you not consider the results his stats. Actual results have meaning. His numbers are not based on a small sample size. If his “expected stats” aren’t indicating his results, you may be looking at a false relationship.
Looking at results in a vacuum doesn’t present the entire picture of a player’s offensive performance. I’m not discounting results by any means, however given that Chapman produced nearly identical xWOBA values in 2022 and 2023 it’s not unreasonable to state that he may have been a little bit unlucky in 2023.
he may have been a little bit unlucky in 2023.
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Also keep in mind that he was injured. Something with his finger. He had a .769 OPS when he went on the IL, and a .633 afterwards.
Who drops a “dumbbell” on their finger?
“Hey coach can’t play today because a DUMBBELL outsmarted Me”……Forget about my increasing whiff rate. Maybe I can sign with the Red Sox so Me and Tylor can drop weights on each other’s fingers
Chapman’s finger injury is pretty ho hum as far as crazy Blue Jays injuries go. Wackiest had to have been Dalton Pompey suffering a concussion when some unsecured bats fell off of a locker onto his head.
Who drops a “dumbbell” on their finger?
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I’ve been trying to figure out the mechanics of that since I first heard it. I assume it was a coverup of some type.
For the older folks, it reminds me of a Monty Python skit where a bunch of idiots were have a car race, ending with “He has just run himself over with his own car”.
Upon further review it appears as though Chapman somehow got his finger caught between a dumbbell and weight rack leading to a finger sprain. I’m not sure what you think the “actual” reason would have been for the finger sprain if you are seriously suggesting the team was covering something else up.
JD Davis’ defense was good in 2023. For those who watched the team they’ll tell you he made a lot of great plays. If it wasn’t for an unannounced injury in June, Davis was on his way to a very good season.
That’s why Chapman doesn’t make sense for the Giants. They have internal options already. Why pay a glove first player in his 30’s a big contract? And Casey Schmitt is a great defensive 3rd baseman too, just waiting on his bat to come around. Complete spin and most Giants posters don’t want him.
I feel like Farhan is just trying to sign whoever is the biggest name FA left, regardless of how well they fit. The fans have been all over him for years now about not being able to land any big fish, and after missing out again this offseason it feels like he’s in desperation mode now.
If they do sign Chapman I expect a massive overpay
You don’t give Farhan enough credit. He could give a shirt what the fans think and won’t sign Chapman to block the infield pipeline until 2030.
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL ok
Cubs still believe they are in on ohtani so waiting out the market
Someday soon I suppose
Unless it is on a one year deal (with a team option?), I hope the Tigers stay away. Defensively he rocks but he comes and goes on offence and having Baez on a longterm inescapable contract with good defence and sucky offense on the left side of the infield is bad enough.
He’s a Boras client. He’s not signing a 1-yr deal
I agree, but the Tigers could use a 3B. They could use a RH power hitter. If he is willing to take a pillow contract, I’m fine with it. Nothing wrong with adding an experienced vet to a young team.
100% agree.
I think I chose the wrong option. Fever Pitch Guy will say I’m lying if it’s wrong.
Wouldn’t sign beyond 4yrs, definitely less than 25M per.
I’m sure someone will want him enough but 4yrs @ $92M would be the top tier for me.
The biggest worry is offence took a dive last season; if the defence begins to suffer (and age will take its toll), you’re left with an incredibly overpriced player not excelling on either side of the ball.
As A Jay’s fan I don’t want anti clutch on the team for what he wants.
The Story and Baez comp is scary. Those two were dead money contracts the moment they were signed. Two of the worst contracts given out in recent years.
If MLBTR used those shortstops for their projection, it was a bad comparison. Chapman is two years older than those guys going into his free agency year.
Matt Carpenter > Matt Chapman
Just curious, why do you like matt carpenter so much? This is the third time I’ve seen you say Carpenter> someone. Carpenter is elderly, slow and can’t field or hit. I believe you are just messing around but I’ve seen many people on this site with absolutely Looney takes so you never know lol.
Carpenter has plenty left in the tank, bucco. Slow that role of yours. A Carpenter/Guerrero DH platoon and a change of scenery to Canada is exactly what Carpenter needs to thrive.
He’ll regret turning down Toronto’s attempt to extend him..
Rockies will sign him to a 3yr $75m deal
I thought that might be a fit too. Though they probably still prefer Ryan McMahon.
He’s not really a fit on paper but the Rockies are known for making moves that don’t make the most sense.
Seems like a lot of money to invest in a player who’s defense is declining from what it was in his mid-20s and he’s going to be 31 in 2024. His offense has been in the decline for the same period of time, when reviewing his wRC+. In 2023, he was only 10% better than a replacement player and below his career total of 118 wRC+. Short-term contract seems like the best option for the team but I doubt that happens.
My guess is 6 yrs, $103M to the San Francisco Giants. Originally, I picked he would sign with the D-Backs but given that they traded for Eugenio Suárez, I doubt he signs there now unless they move Suárez to SS for some reason.
Chapman was not 10% better offensively than a replacement player. He was 10% better than an average major league player, that is a dramatic difference.
Chapman produced nearly identical xWOBA values in 2022 and 2023 which suggests he was a little unlucky with the bat in terms of results.
@maxsilver
OPS+ for 2023 was 108 and his career is 117, so he’s down and has been going down the past 3 years. wRC+, he’s only creating 10% more runs than the league average, so on that point, you’re correct.
All the xWOBA nonsense isn’t predictive. What’s predictive is:
community.fangraphs.com/properly-diving-into-expec…
“Once you have a large enough sample size on a player, previous batting average, on-base percentage, weighted on-base average, home runs, and stolen bases are the best way to estimate what a player will accomplish in an upcoming season. ”
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His BA is below average but what’s going for him is his wOBA is somewhere between Average and Above Average. But with an aging player and weaker defense, I don’t see the value in spending big on him especially $100M.
Check out this recent blog post from Tom Tango. He is one of the primary masterminds behind the Statcast suite of statistics.
tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/introducing-…
“As we know, Actual Outcomes are filled with vagaries of the fielders and the park and the ball and on and on. This is why we prefer Expected wOBA over Actual wOBA. Expected wOBA is focused on those launch characteristics most in control of the batter (launch angle and speed), without worrying about whether the ball carries for 300 feet or 320 feet, or pulled at 20 degrees or 30 degrees, or how good the fielding alignment is positioned or how well the fielder reads the ball. All of those variables is what turns an Expected wOBA into an Actual wOBA. And Expected wOBA describes a batter’s talent better than Actual wOBA, which you can see by the correlation having an r above .55.”
While xWOBA is not predictive in nature, it is more effective in evaluating hitter talent than the results on the field as it removes all variables that are beyond the hitters control from the equation and strictly focuses on aspects of performance that the hitter can control.
I’m hoping Hoyer isn’t stupid enough to sign Chapman, his bat sucks and he wants to be paid like he’s got the offensive numbers to back it up.
@acoss13
Not to keep the deferral joke going but technically, he could defer salary for Chapman through 2040 and just pay him $2M each year.
Old York,
I would not put it past Hoyer. He’s not giving me confidence this offseason.
Seems like every GM would recognize this is a bad 9 figure contract effort for 30s decline years. Not sure there is the usual sucker here no matter how long Boras drags it out.
He can certainly play the usual games with his other clients Snell/Montgomery……and Bellinger only to a certain degree.
While a lot of Chapman’s value is tied to his defensive work his offense cratering out in the second half of last seaaon (while not being that great in the first half) probably has teams concerned. On a multi year deal i guess the Cubs or Giants make sense. On a one year pillow contract the Tigers, Nationals, Mariners, Mets and Yankees all make sense
Please help me understand how a multi year contract would make sense for the Cubs?
Lack of better options within their organization.
I’d rather have Morel fumble around at 3B or Madrigal with his flimsy arm. At least they’re cheap and Morel makes up for it with his bat.
He is over rated
Heading downhill
Whoever signs him will regret it
Lot of weird hate for a really good player. I don’t get it.
27.4 WAR in a little less than 6 full years in the league.
That’s a very very good player folks. I don’t get all the hate.
Yeah it’s kind of crazy, I know we’ve disagred on somethings before but im with you on this Joel. I know he’s Regressed but he still produces.
He’s been consistently really really good for years. He has stats comparable to Nolan Arenado. Of course he’s risky all free agents are but gosh he’s a good player.
I don’t many people look at nuance or context any more. If the RS could get him for $100M/5, I’d sign him today, and worry about the defensive alignment tomorrow.
The dude has averaged 5.7 bWAR/650 PAs for his career, which is higher than Scott Rolen. His bWAR last year was 4.4, which is great given his stint on the IL.
But folks see he had a bad August and write him off.
He’s anti clutch. His defense is fine but he’s not worth the 150 mill he wants.
I don’t think the Cubs are willing to commit the years for Chapman until they are convinced that Matt Shaw either can’t play 3B defensively or can’t contribute offensively at a big league level. Their best lineup has Shaw forcing his way into the starting job at 3B, Bellinger at either CF/1B, and Hoskins, Morel, Crow-Armstrong, and Canario job sharing between 1B/DH/CF depending on matchups and ballpark characteristics. Lots of Bellinger/Hoskins/Morel/Swanson hitting 3-6 with PCA coming on to PR for Hoskins in the 7th or 8th.
Even with Chapman’s defense, I just don’t see them offering more than two years. I think it’s more likely that they let the Giants sign Chapman and then deal for JD Davis to be a short term CI.
It’s New Year’s Day and the Cubs are the only team in MLB who have not added an external player to their 40-man roster this offseason. I believe that changes shortly , primarily in free agency and perhaps an impact trade.
It’s been a rough hot stove for this Chicago baseball fan thus far, crickets on the northside of town with maggots and flies emanating from all the dumpster diving on the southside.
I have hope the Cubs will re-sign CF/1B Cody Bellinger. and add impact FA’s like 3B Matt Chapman and closer Josh Hader. I’m also confident they will acquire a TOR, hopefully one who can miss bats. A reunion with White Sox ace Dylan Cease is a possibility that makes sense for both teams on paper. Japanese FA southpaw Shota Imanaga might also be a logical addition.
As for the White Sox, any more free agent signings figure to be inconsequential. The only real chance of an impact move would be a trade involving Cease or perhaps DH/OF Eloy Jimenez, likely for young controllable MLB talent and/or near ready MLB prospects.
This was the one guy that I felt should have taken the QO.
Gio I think will end up putting on a Cubs uniform. Chapman, I think he should slide over to the other corner infield position. I feel his defense is going to decline over the next few years. Switching positions and work on his hitting, could extend his career 5 more years.
If I’m Toronto I’ll give him 20 a year for up to 6 years…. Or 25 a year for 3….
I personally think the contract year, Boris, and his head getting inflated in April when he was all world set him up for a terrible final 5 months.
If it’s more than 25 a year and more than 3 years the giants can have him.
his head getting inflated in April when he was all world set him up for a terrible final 5 months.
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Chapman went south after MLB Rumors ran a Boras story saying that Chapman was going to get a massive contract. I posted that his OPS was based entirely on an unsustainable BABIP, but they didn’t listen.
At the end of April, his BABIP was .485, but he only had 5 HRs and still had 26 Ks. That said, his correction might make him more affordable.
If the Giants sign Chapman for anything more than one year, they are saying that Casey Schmitt was never a legit MLB candidate. And that would put into question the abilities of all Giants’ prospects. This is one where Farhan has to sit out.
No more than 3 years for me. I don’t mind Casey Schmitt and Marco Luciano being Chapman’s understudy for a couple of years. Two would be ideal but three is alright.
In the meantime, Schmitt can stay in the MLB roster, and Luciano can learn to play 3B in AAA, if that’s his path moving forward.
Ya the only way I could get on board with signing Chapman is if it was followed up with trading Schmitt for an ace pitcher.
Still think it’s too early to give up on him though.
That would be a good move although you are trading Schmitt when his value is really low. They need to suck it up with Schmitt at third – give him his 600 at bats and then see if he is MLB material. 2023 is already in the toilet for the Giants. See what you got or if one or more rookies get hot, trade them for max. trade value.
This is turning out to be a strange free agent period. Wonder if all the teams who have tv rights issues with Diamond/Bally are cash poor so the market is very dry. Wonder if this is going to be get a 1 year deal a week before spring training for most players.
I pick other: Marlins
5/$110m. 12 WAR before he hangs it up. The dropoff given his K rate will probably be catastrophic and limits the upside.
For that reason I wouldn’t want to sign him even if the need in 2024 is desperate.
Yep. Especially no more than $100 million.
I’d be weary at 4 yrs / $80 million, but I think that’s doable. Although I highly doubt Chapman will take that seeming as he just turned down an extension that is north of hundred mil.
But the Giants really don’t need to shell that much money on Chapman. He’s an upgrade, but not significant enough to warrant the risk being taken.
If he or Bellinger get five years. They will battle for worse contract signed. He is all defense When slows down it will be a really bad signing.