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Free Agent Faceoff: Aroldis Chapman/Matt Moore

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The market for pure relievers has been deathly slow this winter. Since free agency opened in early November, just four full-time relievers have signed multi-year contracts this winter: right-handers Chris Stratton and Emilio Pagan signed on with the Royals and Reds, respectively, while both NPB lefty Yuki Matsui and KBO righty Woo Suk Go recently agreed to deals with the Padres. While the likes of Nick Martinez, Reynaldo Lopez, and (most recently) Sean Manaea have all signed multi-year pacts this offseason as well, each of that trio has started games in the past and figures to have at least a chance of earning a rotation spot entering Spring Training.

There’s little question who the top dog available in free agency this offseason is in terms of relief pitching. Southpaw Josh Hader has been in the conversation for best reliever in baseball practically since his debut back in 2017 and is coming off an incredible platform season where he posted a 1.28 ERA in 56 1/3 innings of work while collecting 33 saves and striking out 36.8% of batters faced. Behind him, the best available bullpen arms largely appear to be right-handed. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed the pros and cons of two of the winter’s best righty relievers, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks. What of the left-handed relief market? With Hader in a league of his own, the next tier of southpaw free agent arms features two dominant back-end veterans in their mid-thirties: Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore.

The two could hardly have had more different career paths leading them to this point. Chapman may be the most well-recognized reliever in the game today, as the veteran fireballer made seven All Star appearances between 2012 and 2021, pitching to an incredible 2.25 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 540 1/3 innings of work and racking up 305 saves across that ten-year span while pitching for the Reds, Yankees, and Cubs. During that time, Chapman’s fastball routinely topped 100 mph and averaged 99.5 mph while maxing out at over 105 mph. That velocity made him one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, particularly at the time of his debut back in 2010.

Over time, however, signs of decline became evident in Chapman’s profile. After pitching just 11 2/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, 2021 saw the flamethrower post a career-worst 3.99 FIP thanks to a 15.6% strikeout rate that was his highest since his first full season in the majors back in 2011. While Chapman managed to pitch through those red flags to rack up 30 saves and post a solid 3.36 ERA, the wheels came off more noticeably for the left-hander during 2022, his final season in New York. Chapman posted the worst average fastball velocity of his career that season, averaging “just” 97.5 mph on his heater. His already elevated walk rate also continued to climb, reaching 17.5%. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate plummeted to just 26.9%, by far the worst of his career. Chapman’s 4.46 ERA and 4.57 FIP were also career worsts, and his career with the Yankees ended inauspiciously as he was left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a team workout.

Chapman’s struggles left him to sign a modest one-year deal with the Royals in free agency last winter in hopes of recouping his value. The lefty did well for himself in that regard as his average fastball velocity climbed back up to 99.1 mph, the highest it had been since his age-29 season back in 2017. With the improved velocity came renewed success, as Chapman struck out a whopping 41.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.09 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 58 1/3 innings of work for the Royals and Rangers. While Chapman’s 14.5% walk rate will surely raise some eyebrows, if he can continue striking out batters at elite rates he should be able to pitch around the additional traffic on the basepaths.

Moore, by contrast, was once considered the very top prospect in all of baseball and in the early years of his career with the Rays appeared to be a burgeoning star. Tommy John surgery in 2014 got in the way of Moore’s ascension, however, and the left-hander was never the same pitcher upon returning to the mound. He scuffled as a fringe rotation option for years, bouncing between the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers before heading to Japan during the 2020 campaign to try and revitalize his career overseas. Moore excelled with a 2.65 ERA in 85 innings for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukoka Softbanks Hawks in 2020 and returned stateside as a swingman for the Phillies in 2021, though he had another difficult season as he struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work.

That rough performance lead Moore to take a minor league contract with the Rangers, but upon converting to relief full time the lefty quickly made his way not only into the big league bullpen, but into a late-inning role with the club. In 74 innings of work across 63 relief appearances for the Rangers in 2022, Moore dominated to a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate paired with a strong 43.9% groundball rate. Despite that dominance, Moore’s long track record of struggles prior to the 2022 campaign, his elevated 12.5% walk rate, and a minuscule 4.2% home run rate on fly balls likely caused concern among potential suitors in free agency, leaving him to settle for a one-year deal with the Angels last winter.

Fortunately for Moore, his performance in 2023 largely backed up his newfound role as a quality back-end relief arm and answered those questions regarding sustainability. Though time on the injured list limited the left-hander to just 50 appearances last year, he posted a strong 2.56 ERA and saw his strikeout rate tick up to 27.5% while his walk rate plummeted to a greatly-improved 6.9%. He found that success in spite of the fact that his groundball rate dipped to a career-low 35% and a whopping 11.3% of his fly balls left the yard for home runs last season.

Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Moore found this success while being shuffled between three teams late in the season. The Angels placed him on waivers in August, where he was claimed by the Guardians, who then promptly waived him for a second time before he was claimed by the Marlins to contribute to their playoff push in the season’s final week. Taken together, Moore sports a sterling 2.20 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings dating back to the start of the 2022 season. That ERA is good for ninth among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the past two seasons, ahead of elite closers like David Bednar and Emmanuel Clase and just behind the likes of Jhoan Duran and Brusdar Graterol.

Relievers always come with risk involved, and that’s especially so for this pair of southpaws. Both players have had significant ups and downs over the past three seasons, and while each figures to fill the same late-inning bullpen role they vastly different pros and cons. Chapman has the name recognition and track record as a longtime closer, and is still capable of elite velocity as shown by his dominant performance in 2023. With that being said, 2022 showed just how far things can go off the rails for the lefty if he loses even a tick or two of that elite velocity, and his 15.6% walk rate since the start of the 2021 campaign seems unlikely to go down much at this stage of his career.

By contrast, Moore is anything but a known commodity given his rollercoaster history as a former top prospect and longtime journeyman starting pitcher who has only recently broken out as a dominant reliever. He lacks the premium velocity Chapman offers, having average 94 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons, but has been among the very best relievers in baseball the past two seasons and has shown the ability to improve around the margins of his profile by cutting his walk rate nearly in half this past season. Also of note is that Moore, who will celebrate his 35th birthday in June, is nearly a year and a half younger than Chapman, who turns 36 next month.

Which southpaw would MLBTR readers rather have on their team in 2024? Do you feel Chapman’s lengthy track record and high-end velocity is too valuable to pass up, or do you prefer Moore’s recent dominance and stronger command?

AL Notes: Mariners, White Sox, Stroman, Yankees

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The Mariners have been busy on the trade market of late, swapping Robbie Ray for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani in a deal with the Giants while acquiring lefty slugger Luke Raley in a swap with the Rays that sent infielder Jose Caballero to Tampa. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently spoke to reporters (including Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times) about the deals and the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Dipoto described the moves as making the Mariners’ roster “more complete” than it has been at any point in the offseason and suggested that if the regular season were to start tomorrow, the club would be satisfied with its roster as currently constructed. The additions of Raley and Haniger certainly shore up the roster’s corner outfield spots, which were the most glaring holes on the roster following the departures of Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernandez. Even as the outfield appears to be set, however, the club’s infield depth took a hit when Caballero was shipped to the Rays. That leaves the Mariners with just Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, and Dylan Moore to handle second and third base with J.P. Crawford entrenched at shortstop and Ty France penciled in as the club’s everyday first baseman.

Despite Dipoto’s vote of confidence in the roster as currently constructed, he left the door open to the Mariners making additional moves as the offseason continues. “…I don’t think we’re done,” Dipoto said (as relayed by Divish), “We still have the desire to find ways to get better. And we certainly have the flexibility from a roster standpoint to go do that.” While it’s unclear how much room the Mariners have remaining in their budget this winter, Dipoto’s comments certainly make it feasible that the club could look to shore up their infield depth before the offseason comes to a close. Gio Urshela, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario are among the mid-level free agent infielders still available on the market.

More from around the American League…

  • The White Sox are continuing to shuffle their front office after hiring Chris Getz as GM on the heels of the club’s midseason firing of Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last year. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the club is hiring longtime Royals executive Jin Wong as an assistant GM. Wong will handle many of the duties previously assigned to assistant GM Jeremy Haber going forward, as Nightengale adds that Haber is expected to depart the club’s front office before Spring Training begins next month. Wong spent 24 years as a member of the Royals organization after first joining the organization in the scouting department back in 2000. Over his time in Kansas City, Wong filled a variety of roles before eventually rising to the title of VP of baseball administration and assistant GM.
  • Nightengale also reports that free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman has approached the Yankees to express “serious interest” in signing with the club, though he adds that the club has not reciprocated that interest with a contract offer at this point. Stroman, whose free agency MLBTR profiled last week, pitched solidly with the Cubs last year en route to a 3.95 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work. While the Yankees are in the market for pitching, recent reporting has suggested that the club is focused on top-of-the-market southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, both of whom are generally considered to be a tier above Stroman who stands as one of the stronger mid-market options remaining in free agency.

Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.

Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.

Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.

As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.

Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.

However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt’s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.

KBO’s KIA Tigers Sign Wil Crowe

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The Korea Baseball Organization’s KIA Tigers announced last night that they’ve agreed to terms with right-hander Wil Crowe on a one-year deal worth $800K guaranteed with incentives that could take the deal to $1MM (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). Crowe spent the 2023 season with the Pirates but was outrighted off the club’s roster over the summer and released back in November.

Crowe, 29, was selected by the Nationals in the second round of the 2017 draft and made his debut with the club during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty struggled during his cup of coffee in D.C. with a 11.88 ERA in 8 1/3 innings of work across three appearances. That would ultimately prove to be Crowe’s only appearances in a Nationals uniform, as the right-hander was shipped to Pittsburgh alongside fellow right-hander Eddy Yean on that offseason in a deal that netted the Nationals first baseman Josh Bell.

Upon joining the Pirates, Crowe was placed into the club’s rotation for the 2021 season. The assignment did not go well, as the right-hander posted a 5.48 ERA and 5.67 FIP in 116 2/3 innings of work across 26 appearances (25 starts). While he struck out a respectable 21.2% of batters faced in 2021, the right-hander struggled with his command and walked opposing hitters at a 10.9% clip. The struggles in the rotation prompted a shift to the bullpen in 2022, and Crowe found success in that role for much of the season.

Crowe posted a solid 3.12 ERA and 3.41 FIP in his first 51 appearances (66 1/3 frames) in 2022 as he strikeout and walk rates improved to 22.1% and 9.8%, respectively. Unfortunately, Crowe ran out of gas late in the year and struggled to a whopping 13.03 ERA over his final nine appearances, walking 11 and striking out just seven in 9 2/3 innings of work. The brutal finish to an otherwise solid season saw opposing hitters tee off against Crow to the tune of a .378/.500/.689 slash line as his ERA ballooned to 4.38 on the season. While he returned to the Pirates in 2023, the right-hander made just five appearances before being sidelined by shoulder discomfort and outrighted off the roster in July.

Going forward, the right-hander will get the opportunity to revitalize his career overseas. By joining the Tigers, Crowe will make more than the major league minimum while occupying one of three spots on the team the club can offer to foreign players. Outfielder Socrates Brito occupies another of those spots, while right-hander Thomas Pannone departed in favor of a minor league deal with the Cubs last month after spending the 2023 campaign with the Tigers overseas.

Mets Sign Sean Manaea To Two-Year Deal

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The Mets announced the signing of left-hander Sean Manaea to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $28MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, who can opt out following the 2024 season. Manaea will make $14.5MM next season, leaving him with a $13.5MM call on the ’25 option.

Manaea, 32 in February, was a first-round pick by the Royals back in 2013 and was swapped to the A’s alongside Aaron Brooks in the 2015 deal that brought Ben Zobrist to Kansas City. The southpaw made his big league debut in Oakland early in the 2016 season and fashioned a solid rookie year for himself with a 3.86 ERA and 4.08 FIP across 144 2/3 innings of work. Manaea continued to provide mid-to-back end of the rotation consistency for Oakland over the next few seasons, and he owned a career 3.94 ERA (105 ERA+) and 4.15 FIP in 464 innings by the end of the 2018 season. Unfortunately, the lefty’s success was interrupted by shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign and he missed nearly all of 2019.

Upon his return to action late in the 2019 season, Manaea more or less picked up right where he left off. In 48 starts from 2019-21, the left-hander posted a solid 3.73 ERA (111 ERA+) with a strong 3.64 FIP. During this stretch, Manaea saw his strikeout rate climb considerably. Though he entered the 2019 season with a rate of just 19.2% for his career, the lefty struck out 24.8% of batters faced over the next three seasons while walking just 5.2% and generating a 43.8% groundball rate that was a near match for his 44.1% figure in the first three seasons of his career. With just one year left before the lefty would hit free agency and the team going nowhere in 2022, the A’s shipped Manaea to San Diego as the Padres in a four-player deal, netting a pair of prospects for the left-hander’s services.

Unfortunately, Manaea began to struggle upon departing Oakland. The lefty’s lone season in San Diego was something of a disaster as he struggled to a 4.96 ERA, 24% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.53 FIP. Manaea’s strikeout rate dipped to 23.2%, his walk rate climbed to 7.5%, and he generated grounders at a career-worst 38.2% clip. While the southpaw mostly looked like himself in the first half of the season, with a 4.11 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 100 2/3 innings of work (17 starts), that production fell off a cliff down the stretch as he allowed a whopping 6.44 ERA over his final 13 contests. Those struggles led Manaea to sign a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants last offseason that gave him the option to return to the free agent market this winter.

At first, Manaea’s time with the Giants saw similarly disastrous results as his final outings with the Padres the previous year. The lefty was booted from the club’s rotation in early May and by mid-June had put together a 5.84 ERA in 49 1/3 frames as opposing batters teed off to the tune of a hefty .474 slugging percentage. However, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted in a recent profile of Manaea, the lefty added a sweeper to his repertoire at the end of May and found massive success with it. Hitters struggled to a .140/.161/.163 slash line against the pitch, swinging and missing at it 35.1% of the times it was thrown.

After adding the sweeper, Manaea quickly found more success with the Giants. He pitched to a solid 3.78 ERA with a fantastic 3.26 FIP in his final 81 frames of the season, and excelled in a late-season return to the rotation with a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP in four September starts. After adding the sweeper midseason, Manaea punched out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 6.6% and generating grounders at a 44% clip reminiscent of his days in Oakland. While the majority of that success came in multi-inning relief, the lefty nonetheless flashed the form that made him a successful mid-rotation arm earlier in his career.

The strong late-season results led Manaea to decline his $12.5MM player option with the Giants and return to the open market. The decision worked out well for the southpaw, as his $28MM pact with the Mets comes with an AAV of $14MM and the ability to return to opt out of the deal once again next winter should he choose to do so. Manaea slightly outperformed the two-year, $22MM prediction MLBTR offered when ranking him 35th on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, earning an additional $3MM annually over the same term. The deal is mostly in line with the market for back-end starters this offseason, which has seen the likes of Nick Martinez ($26MM) and Kenta Maeda ($24MM) earn similar guarantees on two-year arrangements.

By adding Manaea, the club adds another veteran arm to a rotation mix that parted ways with both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline last summer. The southpaw figures to return to starting full-time in joining the Mets, slotting into the middle of the club’s rotation behind incumbents Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana and ahead of fellow offseason additions Luis Severino and Adrian Houser. The addition of Manaea allows the club to utilize the likes of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto as depth options at the Triple-A level or in the club’s bullpen. The same figures to go for lefty David Peterson when he returns from offseason hip surgery sometime next summer.

The Mets were already over the highest luxury tax threshold of $297MM prior to signing Manaea, That means his full $14MM is part of the Mets’ overage coming into 2024. Assuming they remain over the highest tax threshold all season, the club figures to pay $15.8MM in taxes on Manaea’s salary next season, meaning the club effectively figures to pay $29.8MM for the lefty’s services in 2024. Of course, that’s unlikely to be much of a concern for the Mets as the club paid over $100MM into the luxury tax this past season. With the club’s rotation mix now likely settled, the Mets figure to continue searching for help at third base, DH and in the bullpen going forward.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Mets were signing Manaea to a two-year, $28MM guarantee with an opt-out. The Associated Press reported the salary breakdown.

Blue Jays Interested In Jorge Soler

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The Blue Jays have shown interest in free agent slugger Jorge Soler, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  Toronto joins the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Nationals, and Marlins as clubs linked to Soler’s market at various points this winter.

It isn’t any surprise that the Jays have joined the fray, as Toronto has reportedly been looking into numerous free agent and trade options on the position-player side.  With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto now off the board, the Blue Jays’ adds have been limited to more defense-oriented pickups like Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, rather than any clear upgrades to what was a middling lineup in 2023.  Speaking with the media earlier this week, GM Ross Atkins said the Blue Jays might add perhaps just one more bat, “most likely be in the outfield or DH category.”

Soler fits that description, moreso as a designated hitter than as a viable regular in the outfield.  Soler has made only 89 appearances in the outfield for the Marlins over the last two seasons, operating as a part-time left fielder in 2022 and then a part-time right fielder in 2023.  Public defensive metrics have never liked Soler’s work in right field but he has been slightly closer to passable over his more limited experience of 875 career innings as a left fielder.

Since Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho are both left-handed hitters, a scenario exists where the right-handed hitting Soler could see some action in left field when a southpaw is on the mound, with one of Kiermaier/Varsho moving to the bench and the other playing in the center field.  As much as the Jays have prioritized defense over the last year, if Soler could match his 2022 left field numbers (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average, -2.5 UZR/150) with his strong offensive numbers from 2023, that’s probably a tradeoff the Blue Jays would be happy to accept, especially since Soler would still be spending more of his time as a DH.

Soler hit .250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs over 580 plate appearances for Miami last season, translating to a 126 wRC+.  It was a good enough year for Soler to exercise the opt-out clause in his deal, as he chose free agency and the promise of a larger contract over the one year and $13MM remaining on his Marlins contract.  Soler originally signed a three-year, $36MM pact with the Fish in the 2021-22 offseason but stumbled to a 95 wRC+ during an injury-marred 2022 campaign.

Though better health was a logical reason for Soler’s bounceback year, it also continued the pattern of inconsistency that has marked Soler’s 10 Major League seasons.  Breaking into the majors as a heavily-hyped prospect in the Cubs system, Soler has a 119 wRC+ over his career, bolstered by particularly strong offensive showings in 2018, 2019 (when he led the AL with 48 homers), and last season.  However, between his defensive showcomings and several other seasons when he has provided closer to league-average offense, Soler has only 7.4 fWAR to show for his 870 career games in the Show.

Perhaps the 2021 season is the best summation of Soler’s roller-coaster nature and high ceiling, as he struggled with the Royals before being traded to the Braves at the 2021 deadline.  The switch was suddenly flipped, as Soler went on a tear after joining the Braves and earned World Series MVP honors as Atlanta captured the championship.  Soler isn’t exactly a sure thing at the plate as he enters his age-32 season, and MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of a three-year, $45MM deal (Soler ranked 16th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) reflected this uncertainty about his offense, and his lack of defensive utility.

Still, at this relatively modest price tag, Soler might be something of a bargain if he keeps hitting as he did in 2023, and the move out of spacious loanDepot Park might also help Soler’s efforts.  As per Statcast’s Park Factor metrics, however, Toronto’s Rogers Centre was only slightly more hitter-friendly than loanDepot Park in 2023, which could deflect any combination of the Blue Jays’ lack of hitting, their strong pitching and defense, or some effects of the new outfield dimensions created by the Jays’ renovations to their ballpark.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Clevinger

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The market for free agent starters has been fairly busy this offseason, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Nola having come off the board at the top of the market alongside a host of mid-level arms including Kenta Maeda and Seth Lugo. Even the back end of the market has been fairly active, with bounceback arms like Luis Severino and Lance Lynn finding new homes on one-year deals earlier this winter. For all the buzz surrounding the free agent pitching market, however, one name stands out as having not come up in the rumor mill at all to this point in the winter: veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger.

It’s something of a surprise that Clevinger’s market has involved such little fanfare, as the righty was one of the most dominant young arms in the league with Cleveland in the late 2010’s. From 2017 to 2019, Clevinger dominated across 447 2/3 innings of work with a 2.96 ERA that was a whopping 52% better than league average by measure of ERA+. The righty struck out 28.3% of batters faced against a 9.1% walk rate, good for a FIP of 3.32. Among pitchers with at least 400 innings of work across those three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth in the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Young award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.

Dominant as Clevinger was, the right-hander was shipped from Cleveland to San Diego at the 2020 trade deadline and wound up requiring Tommy John surgery just four starts into his tenure with the Padres. Rehab wiped out his entire 2021 season, and the right-hander returned in 2022 to post the worst season of his career. In 117 1/3 innings of work, Clevinger struggled to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.98 FIP, the first time he posted a ERA+ below the league average since becoming a full-time starter in 2017.

Clevinger’s peripherals also suffered considerably. Though the right-hander entered the 2022 campaign with a strong 27.3% career strikeout rate, he punched out just 18.8% of batters faced in his first year back from surgery. His batted ball metrics suffered as well: while he had generated grounders at a 40.3% clip during his peak years in Cleveland, that figure fell to just 35.2% with the Padres in 2022. The difficult season led Clevinger to sign a one-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox last offseason, and the righty made good on that deal by turning in a solid performance last year.

Clevinger’s time on the south side of Chicago got off to a rough start as he struggled to a 4.84 ERA across his first seven starts, but the right-hander settled in from there to bring his ERA down to just 3.88 by the time a wrist injury sent him to the injured list in mid-June. That success carried over when Clevinger returned to action six weeks later, and he entered the month of September with a sterling 2.45 ERA and solid 3.88 FIP in his last eleven starts. Clevinger mostly cruised through the month of September until his final appearance of the year, where he was torched for six runs in just 1 2/3 innings of work to leave him with a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP on the season.

While Clevinger flashed his previous, dominant form at various points throughout the 2023 season and saw his average fastball velocity tick back up to 94.6, higher than his career average, it seems unlikely the veteran righty would be able to fully rediscover his previous form over a full season. After all, Clevinger’s groundball rate was at a career-worst 30.9% last season and while his strikeout rate did improve over 2022 it still sat at just 20%. That’s a far cry from the 33.9% clip Clevinger punched out batters at back in 2019 and pretty significantly below league average this past year.

Even so, the right-hander figures to be a quality, innings eating veteran who a club can comfortably place in the middle-to-back of their rotation in 2024. While Clevinger’s strikeout and groundball rates left something to be desired last year, he flashed strong command with a walk rate of just 7.3% while maintaining hard-hit and barrel rates significantly better than league average. Combined with his rediscovered velocity, it’s easy to see how the veteran right-hander could be an above average big league starter next season. If he can live up to that billing, the right-hander might prove to be a steal for the club that ultimately signs him this winter.

MLBTR projected Clevinger for a two-year, $26MM deal on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed 30th. That $13MM AAV would be something of a steal for a solid, mid-rotation arm this offseason given the pricey one-year deals arms like Frankie Montas ($16MM), and Jack Flaherty ($14MM) signed on the heels of seasons marred by injury and under performance. Meanwhile, the likes of Lucas Giolito ($19.3MM AAV) and Michael Wacha ($16MM AAV) managed to surpass those marks on multi-year guarantees. While Giolito is three-and-a-half years younger than Clevinger and Wacha has a stronger recent track record, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Clevinger posts comparable numbers to either pitcher in 2024 at a lower price point.

The veteran righty has been something of a ghost on the rumor mill this offseason, with few if any clubs directly connected to the right-hander. With that being said, plenty of teams are known to be in the market for starting pitching this winter including the Red Sox, Orioles, Angels, Giants, Yankees, and Cubs. Any of those teams could benefit from adding Clevinger to their rotation mix, and he could prove to be an attractive backup option for teams that either can’t afford or fall short in the bidding for top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, or who are unwilling to meet the asking prices for potential trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.

AL Notes: Angels, Tigers, Yankees

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According to Robert Murray of FanSided, the Angels had interest in center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader before they signed with the Blue Jays and Mets, respectively. The news isn’t necessarily a surprise given the club’s reported interest in bolstering the club’s outfield mix with the likes of Michael A. Taylor and Adam Duvall. Taylor, in particular, fills a similar role to Bader and Kiermaier as a glove-first outfield option who offers a plus glove in center field and roughly league average offense.

That being said, both Bader and Kiermaier are elite defensive center fielders who have received at least semi-regular playing time throughout their careers. Given their status as regulars best suited for center field, the Angels’ interest in the duo is noteworthy even in spite of the fact that both players have already signed elsewhere, as it could indicate a willingness to move franchise face and future Hall of Famer Mike Trout out of center field. Trout, 32, has logged nearly 93% of his 12207 1/3 career innings on the outfield grass in center, and his glovework has continued to rate well even as he enters his 30s with +3 Outs Above Average in 82 games last year.

Despite his solid defense and lengthy track record at the position, rumors of the Angels moving Trout out of center field have been floated somewhat regularly in recent years, dating back to 2022 when former Angels skipper Joe Maddon told reporters that the club was considering playing Brandon Marsh as the club’s regular center fielder. Moving Trout to a corner or even DH isn’t without logic; after all, he’s seen his star fade somewhat in recent years due to a rash of injuries that left him to play just 237 games in the last three season, or less than half of the Angels’ contests in that time. While Trout appears as capable of handling the position as ever when on the field, it’s possible moving down the defensive spectrum could allow him to stay healthier and remain on the field for the Halos going forward.

More from around the American League…

  • Longtime Tigers slugger J.D. Martinez is currently a free agent after a rebound season with the Dodgers where he crushed 33 home runs in just 113 games. Earlier in his career, Martinez spent three and a half seasons in Detroit and found great success with the club as he slashed .300/.361/.551 with 99 homers in 458 games during his tenure with the Tigers. With Detroit on the rise after finishing second in the AL Central last year, adding a power bat like Martinez to the club’s lineup could make some sense, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand indicates that the club is “believed to have some interest” in a reunion with the veteran slugger. With that said, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press pumped the breaks on a rumored connection between Martinez and the Tigers today, saying the club has not expressed interest in the veteran’s services this offseason with Kerry Carpenter penciled in as the club’s everyday DH.
  • The Yankees have hired Pat Roessler as their newest assistant hitting coach, according to a report from Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media. Roessler has previously served as hitting coach for both the Expos and the Mets, and his stay in Queens coincided with the club’s NL pennant-winning season back in 2015. Roessler’s most recent role was as assistant hitting coach for the Nationals, though the sides parted ways earlier this offseason as the Nats overhauled their coaching staff. Earlier this offseason, the Yankees added James Rowson as their hitting coach and tapped Brad Ausmus to replace new Mets manager Carlos Mendoza as the club’s bench coach.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals have spent their offseason focused on adding pitching, having already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to fill out the club’s rotation while trading for Andrew Kittredge, Nick Robertson and Victor Santos to bolster their bullpen depth. In a recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Katie Woo discussed St. Louis’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Regarding the bullpen, Woo notes that while the Cardinals have been active in the free agent relief market this offseason, the club doesn’t appear to be interested in a major addition like relief ace Josh Hader, instead preferring to shop in the lower tiers of the market. Woo relays that the club hopes to add another reliever to their bullpen with a contract in the range of around $5MM annually. She also notes that the club had interest in a reunion with right-hander Chris Stratton, who the club landed alongside Jose Quintana in a deal with the Pirates at the 2022 trade deadline before flipping him to the Rangers alongside Jordan Montgomery last summer, before the veteran inked a two-year, $8MM deal with the Royals.

Of course, it’s important to note that this report from Woo was published before the Cardinals and Rays got together on a trade to send veteran righty Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis yesterday afternoon. Kittredge is projected for a salary of just $2.3MM in 2024 by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Given the righty’s modest projected salary, it’s possible that his addition wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cardinals from making another relief addition, whether by free agency or trade. At the same time, Woo indicates that the club is “high” on its internal relief corps and could look to make only one more addition, which the Kittredge deal would account for. If St. Louis does dip into the free agent relief market, Woo indicates that lefty Matt Moore and right-hander Phil Maton could be in the club’s price range this winter.

Each of Stratton, Moore, and Maton have been valuable bullpen pieces for contending clubs in recent years, though neither Stratton nor Maton have posted the sort of elite numbers that would make them clear back-end arms like Hader or former Cardinal Jordan Hicks; Maton has a 3.67 ERA since joining the Astros midway through the 2021 season, while Stratton has posted a 3.92 ERA over the past three seasons. Moore, by contrast, has posted a fantastic 2.20 ERA and respectable 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings the past two seasons, making him one of the more effective set-up options on the market. With that being said, the lefty is entering his age-35 campaign in 2024 and seems unlikely to land a longer-term commitment from interested clubs. The Cardinals have also reportedly expressed interest in Ryan Brasier, who struggled badly (7.29 ERA) with the Red Sox earlier in the 2023 campaign before dominating (0.70 ERA) down the stretch with the Dodgers last season.

While it’s not entirely clear what the Cardinals’ bullpen plans are following the addition of Kittredge, Woo indicates that the club is likely done adding to its rotation this winter. She writes that a reunion with Montgomery or a deal for another top free agent starter like Shota Imanaga or Blake Snell is “incredibly unlikely” as the club doesn’t have interest in offering a nine-figure contract this winter, a benchmark each of the aforementioned southpaws appears likely to surpass. While Woo acknowledges that the club’s front office could explore trades for starting pitching, she describes the pursuits as “neither a high priority nor highly likely” to result in an addition this winter. Right-handers Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber have both been seen as likely trade candidates this offseason, while the likes of Corbin Burnes and Jesus Luzardo have occasionally seen their names floated in the rumor mill as well. The Cards have been loosely connected to Cease recently but otherwise haven’t come up often as a potential suitor for a starter in the rumor mill this winter.

It would be something of a surprise if Kittredge proved to be the club’s final pitching addition this winter. After all, the Cardinals noted that they planned to add “at least two” relievers this offseason in addition to their goal of adding three starters, which they completed by adding Gray, Gibson, and Lynn. By contrast, Kittredge is the only relief arm they’ve added to this point with a substantial track record in the majors. While the likes of Robertson, minor league signing Wilking Rodriguez and Rule 5 draftee Ryan Fernandez all provide depth, none of them figure to be the sort of reliable source of quality production the Cardinals lacked in 2023.

If the Cardinals do come up short in their goal of adding multiple relievers to their bullpen mix, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll have done enough to put themselves back into contention in the NL Central after finishing fifth in their division with a 91-loss campaign in 2023. While the club is surely hoping for rebound seasons from veteran stars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt to lift the offense, the club’s pitching staff was primarily the cause of St. Louis’s difficult season last year. Cardinals starters posted a 5.08 ERA in the rotation last year that ranked fifth-worst in the majors, while their bullpen was the eighth-worst by that same metric.

The addition of Gray to the club’s rotation figures to provide a significant boost, but both Gibson and Lynn are coming off down seasons of their own while internal options like Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Matthew Liberatore all come with their own question marks, though internal youngsters like Sem Robberse could impact the club in 2024 and provide depth behind the established arms. As for the bullpen, both Kittredge and internal southpaw JoJo Romero have flashed tantalizing upside in the past but offer little certainty headed into 2024. That goes for most of the club’s relief corps with the exceptions of Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, though even they dealt with injury and under-performance issues respectively last season. Signing an arm like Moore or Maton to bolster the bullpen could go a long way to helping St. Louis return to form next season, particularly given the relative inaction of the rest of the division aside from Cincinnati this winter.

Reds Re-Sign Alan Busenitz

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The Reds and right-hander Alan Busenitz agreed on a minor league deal earlier this week, according to the transactions log on Busenitz’s MLB.com profile page. Busenitz hit minor league free agency earlier this winter but now is set to return to Cincinnati for a second season in the organization.

A 25th-round pick by the Angels in the 2013 draft, Busenitz made his MLB debut with the Twins back in 2017, pitching out of the club’s bullpen for two seasons with a 4.58 ERA and 5.49 FIP. After being granted his release by the Twins prior to the 2019 season, Busenitz landed with the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Busenitz’s first season in Japan was a dominant one, as he posted a sterling 1.69 ERA in 64 innings of work. Busenitz’s run prevention numbers regressed someone over the next two seasons, with a 3.51 ERA in 82 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18%, but he rebounded in 2022 to post a 2.14 ERA over 33 2/3 frames while punching out 21.1% of batters faced.

Busenitz’s strong 2022 campaign and generally solid NPB track record earned him a look from the Reds on a minor league deal last offseason. After posting a 2.83 ERA through 155 2/3 career innings overseas, the right-hander’s return to stateside ball saw him shuttled on and off the club’s 40-man roster throughout the season, though he ultimately posted a strong 2.57 ERA across his six appearances in the majors with five strikeouts against one walk in seven innings of work. His minor league numbers were also strong to start the season, as the righty posted a 2.48 ERA in 40 innings at the Triple-A level through mid-August. He struck out 25% of batters faced during that time, though his 12.8% walk rate stood out as a potential red flag.

The wheels came off for Busenitz after being sent to the minors for the final time in 2023 in late August. The right-hander struggled terrible to a 13.91 ERA in his final 11 minor league appearances last year, dragging his overall minor league numbers last season down to a mediocre 4.94 ERA in 51 innings. If Busenitz can avoid a late season slump in 2024, he could provide the Reds with a valuable depth arm in 2024 and help to support a relief corps that the club relied on for a whopping 652 1/3 frames last year, a figure that was second to only the Giants in the NL. Busenitz figures to compete with the likes of Fernando Cruz and Buck Farmer for a spot in the Reds bullpen this spring.

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