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Cubs Sign Shota Imanaga To Four-Year Deal

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The Cubs officially announced the signing of left-hander Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee. The deal contains a fifth-year team option and could reach $80MM. The Cubs will need to decide after the 2025 and potentially ’26 seasons whether to exercise the option for 2028. If the club declines the option at either point, Imanaga would have the ability to opt out and become a free agent. He receives limited no-trade rights and would earn a full no-trade clause if the Cubs exercise either of their options.

On top of what they’ll pay Imanaga, the Cubs owe a posting fee to the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball. That’ll initially be a $9.825MM sum and would increase if the team exercises the option and/or Imanaga unlocks more money via escalators. The Cubs would owe the BayStars an additional 15% of whatever money the southpaw earns beyond the initial guarantee.

It’s the first MLB free agent pickup of the offseason for the Cubs. It’s a big acquisition, as the southpaw is one of the more intriguing pitchers in this year’s class. That makes the financial terms unexpected. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract. Reporting in recent weeks had suggested he could top $100MM. Even with the conditional opt-out possibilities, a $53MM guarantee and an $80MM maximum value comes in below general expectations.

Imanaga has spent the past eight seasons with the BayStars in his home country. He owns a career 3.18 ERA in a league generally regarded as the second-best level in the world. Imanaga has turned in a 3.08 or better in each of the past three seasons, including a sub-3.00 figure for the last two years.

During the 2023 campaign, he allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine through 148 innings. He led all NPB hurlers with 174 strikeouts, narrowly topping Dodgers’ $325MM signee Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that regard. That’s an impressive 29.2% clip that’s well above the 22.1% MLB average. He paired that with a tidy 4% walk rate, ranking him among NPB’s best pitchers at dominating the strike zone.

Despite the strong strikeout and walk profile, Imanaga doesn’t come with the kind of excitement generated by Yamamoto. That’s in part due to age. Having turned 30 last September, Imanaga is a typical age for a first-time free agent starter. More importantly, his repertoire points more toward a projection as a solid mid-rotation arm than a potential ace.

Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke before the offseason suggested Imanaga profiles as a #3/4 pitcher in a big league rotation. Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser pegged him as a #4/5 type in a scouting report from early December. The 5’10” hurler typically sits in the low-90s with his fastball, touching the 94-95 MPH range in shorter stints.

Evaluators have credited him with above-average life on the pitch, allowing it to play for whiffs at the top of the strike zone despite the pedestrian velocity. Glaser writes that Imanaga backs that up with an above-average split but suggests his MLB upside may be capped by middling breaking stuff.

The main concern in Imanaga’s statistical profile has been the longball. He surrendered 17 homers last season, the second-most of any NPB pitcher. While some of that is attributable to workload — he was 15th in innings pitched — it hints at a fly-ball profile that could give some evaluators pause. The Yankees reportedly stayed on the periphery of the bidding in part because of concerns that Imanaga wouldn’t profile well in a very hitter-friendly home park. Statcast’s Park Factors rate Wrigley Field as slightly favorable to home runs, but it’s not among the top handful of hitting venues in MLB.

Imanaga’s stellar strikeout/walk profile and consistently strong results generated a decent amount of reported interest. The Red Sox, Giants and Angels were all reported to be in the bidding of late. He’ll bypass those teams to step into a Chicago rotation that seems likely to lose Marcus Stroman to free agency.

Imanaga joins Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon as locks for the Opening Day rotation. The likes of Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Ben Brown could battle for the #5 job. There’s still plenty of time for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office to add another starter if they want to solidify the final spot and push all their younger, unproven arms into depth roles.

The fee to the BayStars is proportional to the contract value: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of further spending ($450K). The 15% rate also applies to whatever future earnings Imanaga secures.

A posting fee is on top of the sum to the player but not included in the deal’s competitive balance tax calculation. The average annual value checks in at $13.25MM. According to Roster Resource, that’ll push the team’s CBT number north of $198MM. That’s nowhere near next year’s $237MM tax threshold. Evenly distributing the salaries would move the team’s 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $191MM — slightly beyond last year’s approximate $184MM Opening Day mark.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Cubs had an agreement with Imanaga. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the presence of various escalators and option provisions and the deal’s $80MM maximum value. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the four-year, $53MM agreement, as well as the club option/opt-out possibilities after years two and three. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported the no-trade provisions.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Showed Interest In Shota Imanaga

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Shota Imanaga’s 45-day posting window closes today, meaning the Cubs will likely announce his reported four-year contract in the near future. It’s known that the Chicago outbid a field of interested parties including at least the Giants, Angels and Red Sox, although multiple reports in the final days of Imanaga’s free agency suggested there were as many as five teams in the mix. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers now reports that the Pirates showed interest in the star NPB left-hander — a surprise entrant into the Imanaga market for a number of reasons.

On the one hand, word of interest that didn’t materialize in a deal can be waved off by many as inconsequential. Imanaga is headed to the Cubs, and he’ll spend anywhere from two to five seasons there, thanks to the complex nature of his contract. (Four years are guaranteed, but he has multiple opt-out chances and the Cubs can supersede those by picking up a fifth-year option after the 2025 season.) What’s done is done. Imanaga is not and will not be a member of the Pirates.

On the other, the Pirates are a genuinely surprising entrant into the Imanaga bidding. Signing him would’ve required the Bucs to commit the largest contract they’ve ever given to a pitcher; Francisco Liriano’s $39MM pact currently holds that distinction. That’s interesting in and of itself, but it’s also further intriguing in that their reported interest now makes it worth wondering whether the Bucs might have a bit more money to spend than most would’ve assumed. And, if that’s the case, it’s fair to consider that perhaps they’d be in play for other middle-tier starters who remain unsigned. The likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still figure to be well beyond the Pirates’ price range, but there are still a few notable arms in the next tier down — Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez (who’s spent the past several seasons starring in NPB) among them.

Thus far, the Pirates have added lefties Martin Perez (one year, $8MM) and Marco Gonzales (acquired from the Braves for a PTBNL) to their rotation behind Mitch Keller. With right-hander Johan Oviedo undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason, however, there’s greater need beyond that trio — especially considering Gonzales’ own injury troubles this past season. Former top prospect Roansy Contreras took a step back in 2023 after a more promising 2022 showing, while prospect Quinn Priester had a rocky debut in 2023.

The Pirates will get righty JT Brubaker back from his own Tommy John procedure this year, but he’ll surely be eased back into the fold and will be on some level of innings limit. Right-hander Luis Ortiz and southpaw Bailey Falter are among the team’s other options in the rotation, and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could make his MLB debut during the summer of 2024. That all gives the Bucs some depth, but with at least two rotation spots still in flux, there’s room for another arm to be added.

It’s possible that the Pirates viewed Imanaga as an exception of sorts, and that their interest in him will go down as little more than a footnote. It remains unclear, after all, whether they pursued him with any level of aggression or whether they were hoping to land him on a shorter-term pact that falls well shy of where he ultimately landed with the Cubs.

If the Bucs fill out their rotation internally or make another budget pickup to stuff some low-upside innings into their starting staff, the interest in Imanaga will quickly be forgotten. But it’s nevertheless interesting to see Pittsburgh punching north of its typical weight class in free agency. General manager Ben Cherington indicated earlier this offseason that the team’s payroll can be expected to increase — although last year’s $73MM Opening Day mark is quite a low bar to clear. The Bucs currently project for a payroll of about $70MM, per Roster Resource.

The Opener: Arbitration Deadline, SP Market, Astros

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As we arrive at a major date on MLB’s offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Arbitration Exchange Deadline

The deadline for teams to exchange salary figures with players eligible for arbitration is set for today. The deadline was reportedly moved up from its original date of Friday, January 12 last month via joint agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, though news of the change only broke for the first time last night. A deadline for players and teams to come to contract agreements avoiding arbitration has been set for noon CT today, while salary figures will be exchanged by 7pm CT this evening. While teams and players can continue negotiating beyond the exchange of salary figures, teams have increasingly opted for a “file and trial” approach to arbitration in recent years, cutting off talks on pure one-year deals once figures are exchanged.

Today’s deadline should spur plenty of activity around the league throughout the day, as every team in baseball has at least two players with whom they’ll need to come to an agreement this afternoon or exchange salary figures with this evening. Most notably, each of the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Marlins, and Dodgers have ten or more such players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arbitration-eligible players back in October. Yankees star outfielder Juan Soto leads the pack this year with a projected salary of $33MM that would break the record set by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani last winter.

2. Could the market for starting pitching pick up soon?

With left-hander Shota Imanaga off the board after reportedly agreeing to a four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs, could more movement on the starting pitching market be on the horizon? The trio of southpaws at the top of the starting pitching market this winter has been whittled down to two as only Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain available, though it doesn’t appear that either player is close to signing at the moment. That said, rumors have begun to pick up in recent days regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman, who is generally regarded as one of the better arms still on the board. Meanwhile, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease remains the focus of the rumor mill in terms of trade candidates as all indications point toward a deal coming together in the coming weeks even as the club’s reported asking price for their top starter remains quite hefty.

3. Kuhnel exiting DFA limbo:

Astros right-hander Joel Kuhnel was designated for assignment last week after the club claimed fellow righty Declan Cronin off waivers from the White Sox. Today marks one week since Kuhnel’s DFA, meaning a resolution is expected sometime today. Kuhnel, 29 next month, spent his entire career in Cincinnati prior to a cash deal shipping him to Houston back in June. The righty sports a lackluster 6.02 ERA in 76 career appearances at the big league level, though his 4.55 career FIP improves his overall resume somewhat. While Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about, he does sport an impressive 52.5% groundball rate for his career. That could spur an interested club to take a chance on Kuhnel, claiming him off waivers and adding him to their own 40-man roster. If no team opts to do so, the Astros can attempt to outright the right-hander to Triple-A as non-roster depth, though Kuhnel would have the ability to reject such an assignment after previously being outrighted by the Reds back in 2020.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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Dylan Cease remains atop the list of potential trade candidates for teams seeking rotation upgrades this offseason, but White Sox general manager Chris Getz isn’t backing off on his asking price in a trade, writes ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Other clubs who’ve spoken to the Sox about Cease tell Rogers that the ask has been “multiple” top prospects with additional lower-end talent; the Sox aren’t open to dealing two affordable years of control over their top starter for a package centered around just one top-tier prospect.

That generally aligns with prior reporting that the White Sox asked the Reds for last year’s first-round pick, Rhett Lowder, and top prospects Edwin Arroyo and Connor Phillips in exchange for Cease. Other teams have similarly balked at the idea of parting with so much talent from the top end of their system.

Rogers reports that the Braves approached the Sox and dangled infielder Vaughn Grissom, among others, but were rebuffed. Grissom instead went to the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade. The Yankees, despite having known interest in Cease, aren’t likely to further deplete their farm after already acquiring Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo) this offseason, per Rogers — at least not at the current asking price. Outfield prospect Spencer Jones, in particular, seems highly unlikely to be included in any potential deal, he adds. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic writes in his latest mailbag that talks between the Red Sox and White Sox never gained traction, thanks to Chicago’s steep ask.

Despite the lack of traction in talks thus far, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said in a Tuesday appearance on Foul Territory that he expects Cease to be moved prior to the season. The demand for starting pitching, as Rosenthal rightly observes, clearly outpaces the supply that’s available in free agency. Beyond that, the asking price on some other pitchers rumored to be available — Jesus Luzardo, in particular — would likely be even greater than the ask for Cease. Luzardo has three years of club control as compared to Cease’s two.

Each of the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Giants, Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, could still use some degree of rotation upgrade. The Cardinals signed three free agents early in the offseason (Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson) but were reported to have interest in Cease even after making that trio of additions.

Getz, unsurprisingly, kept things close to the vest in his public comments yesterday. The newly minted general manager rattled off a series of familiar choruses, noting that Cease would only be moved for the right deal, that there was no urgency to make a swap given his remaining club control, and specifying that the majority of the league has shown at least some level of interest in the right-hander.

Cease is coming off a down season that saw him post a 4.58 ERA with a slightly diminished 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s down only by his lofty standards; he punched out 30.1% of his opponents a year prior while pitching to a sparkling 2.20 ERA that netted him a runner-up finish in American League Cy Young voting.

While last year’s ERA was unsightly, Cease still missed bats at a high level, sat just under 96 mph in terms of average fastball velocity, and notched a well above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s also made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons, leading the Majors with 109 games started since 2020. Add in that Cease is projected for an eminently affordable $8.8MM salary in arbitration this winter (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and is controllable through the 2025 season, and his appeal becomes even more apparent.

Any team to acquire Cease would surely view him as a prime rebound candidate whom they can control for two seasons before recouping some prospect value in the form of a qualifying offer. An extension with Cease always remains a possibility, albeit perhaps a faint one. Clients of the Boras Corporation tend to test the open market, though there are plenty of examples of Boras clients who have instead signed extensions (e.g. Xander Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez — among others).

David Stearns Discusses Alonso, Outfield, Bullpen

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Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns addressed a few topics. In an appearance on The New York Post’s podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman, he touched on the future of first baseman Pete Alonso as well as the club’s outfield and relief groups.

Stearns reaffirmed the Mets have no desire to trade Alonso this offseason. The new baseball operations leader said he’s “pretty darn confident (Alonso) is going to be our first baseman on Opening Day.” He wasn’t committal on the three-time All-Star’s longer-term future in Queens. While Stearns predictably indicated they’d love to keep Alonso beyond the 2024 season, he spoke generally about the challenges of extending players who are deep into their club control window.

“We also understand that as players approach free agency, there’s often a desire to test free agency,” Stearns said. “It’s really tough to line up on these types of deals in the last year of a player’s team control, the last year of arbitration.” The baseball operations president declined to go into detail about Alonso’s status specifically.

That said, Stearns’ broad reference to the difficulty of extending a player one year from the open market aligns with recent reporting on Alonso. Newsday’s Tim Healey indicated in early December there’d been no extension talks this offseason. As part of a reader mailbag yesterday, The Athletic’s Tim Britton wrote there is “little expectation that there will be substantive negotiations about a contract extension” at any point before the end of 2024.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Alonso for a $22MM salary in his final arbitration season. The sides will either agree upon a ’24 salary or exchange filing figures for a potential hearing by tomorrow’s deadline. If the slugger turns in a typical season, he’d likely look for a contract in excess of $200MM when he hits the open market. There might be renewed chatter about Alonso’s trade availability around the deadline if the Mets fall from contention, but the current organizational hope is seemingly that he’ll re-sign after testing the free agent waters.

That was the approach taken by Brandon Nimmo last offseason. Nimmo turned in a strong first season of his eight-year, $162MM deal. He hit .274/.363/.466 with 24 homers in a career-high 682 trips to the plate. That’s more than enough offense to profile in a corner outfield spot. That seems likely after the Mets brought in glove-first center fielder Harrison Bader on a one-year, $10.5MM deal last week.

Stearns indicated the specific outfield alignment is yet to be determined, but he noted that Nimmo has shown a willingness to do whatever the team feels is best. Plugging Bader in center would kick Nimmo to left field on most days. Starling Marte is still the presumptive starter in right as he looks to rebound from an injury-plagued, disappointing season. That could push DJ Stewart — who hit well in 58 games late in the year — to the designated hitter mix.

The Mets have been linked to more substantive additions (i.e. J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner) at the DH spot. While Stearns indicated he wouldn’t “close the door on anything” on the position player side, he cautioned they’re reluctant to take too many at-bats from young players. Brett Baty and Mark Vientos are in the mix at third base and DH, although the Mets lost Ronny Mauricio for most or all of the season when he tore his ACL in winter ball.

One area where another acquisition seems likely: the bullpen. Stearns confirmed reports they’re still looking to add to the relief corps. In a subsequent video call with various reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com), he indicated they’ll look for pitchers who offer a different repertoire or approach to some of the in-house options.

New York has a heavily right-handed bridge to star closer Edwin Díaz. The only southpaw who is guaranteed to start the year in the bullpen is Brooks Raley. Low-cost free agent pickups Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams join Drew Smith and Phil Bickford in the projected middle relief group.

Arbitration Exchange Deadline Moved Up To Tomorrow Afternoon

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10:33pm: Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the deadline for teams and players to come to agreements is set for 1:00 pm EST. Salary figures will be officially exchanged at 8:00 pm.

7:19pm: The deadline for teams to exchange salary figures with arbitration-eligible players is set for Thursday, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball reports (on X) that the deadline is 8:00 pm EST.

Initially, that had been set for Friday afternoon. Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner notes (X link) that the league and Players Association agreed last month to move it up a day. It’s unclear why that decision was made. In any event, it’ll spur some activity a day earlier than anticipated.

The salary exchange date is not necessarily a deadline for teams to negotiate with their arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players are free to continue talks right up until a hearing (which generally run from mid-February into the beginning of March). It serves as an anchoring point in negotiations, though, and many teams treat it as an unofficial deadline to avoid a hearing. It’ll therefore spur a large number of salary agreements — Cal Quantrill, JT Brubaker and Hoby Milner all agreed to deals this afternoon — and could be the catalyst for a trade or two.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arbitration-eligible players at the start of the offseason. Juan Soto could top Shohei Ohtani’s record-setting $30MM mark in his final year of eligibility. Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Gleyber Torres and trade candidates like Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease are all in line for notable sums in their own right.

The Phillies’ Next Steps

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It’s been a quiet offseason in Philadelphia to this point — well, as quiet as is possible for a team that doled out a $172MM contract. The Phils struck early and decisively to keep longtime rotation anchor Aaron Nola on a new seven-year deal worth that sum, but it’s been largely silent since that time. Philadelphia made an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, and the team is also said to have interest in extending Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency next winter.

Other than that, there’s been borderline silence out of Philadelphia. Even in terms of minor league free agency, the Phils have added hard-throwing righty Jose Ruiz and… that’s it. There’s obviously a good bit of offseason left to unfold, but for a team coming off consecutive NLCS berths and with clear World Series aspirations, it’s been a bit surprising. Their only signings beyond Nola and Ruiz have been low-cost deals to avoid arbitration with backup outfielder/first baseman Jake Cave ($1MM), swingman Dylan Covey ($850K) and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs ($850K).

That said, it’s clear that the Phillies aren’t yet finished with their offseason dealings. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much last week, telling Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his team is “not just satisfied” and is still working to improve. Where could the Phillies search for upgrades in an unusually quiet offseason by their standards? Let’s take a look:

Bullpen upgrades

The Phils have a need in the ’pen after seeing Craig Kimbrel depart and piecing together much of the relief corps via minor league free agency a year ago. Dombrowski’s low-cost pickup of Jeff Hoffman proved to be a masterstroke, but bullpen-mate Andrew Bellatti’s dismal 2023 campaign illustrates the perils of simply assuming that a breakout performance from a minor league free-agent pickup in the ’pen will carry over to the following season. Hoffman was genuinely dominant for the Phils, but his track record is limited.

Rob Thomson’s bullpen figures to be anchored by Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Gregory Soto. Bellatti is still on hand, and the aforementioned Covey can provide long relief and serve as a spot starter. Dombrowski spoke highly of rookie Orion Kerkering when chatting with Lauber and even noted that he’s turned down trade offers for the promising 22-year-old.

The Inquirer’s Alex Coffey reported in December that making some kind of bullpen addition is in the Phillies’ plans. Jayson Stark of The Athletic suggested not long before that report that the Phils aren’t likely to pursue a pure closer, so don’t expect a Josh Hader splash at Citizens Bank Park. If the Phils are comfortable making a long-term move, they could look to righties Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson. But Dombrowski has erred toward short-term additions in recent offseasons, signing Matt Strahm (two years, $15MM), Kimbrel (one year, $10MM) and Corey Knebel (one year, $10MM). If he follows a similar path, names like Aroldis Chapman, Ryne Stanek and old friends Hector Neris and Michael Fulmer could be in play.

Right-handed outfielder

Stark wrote back in November that the Phillies were planning to add a right-handed-hitting outfielder to their corner outfield mix. That new addition could serve as a platoonmate for Brandon Marsh in left field or perhaps handle left field on a full-time basis if Marsh were to slide into a timeshare with Johan Rojas in center field. A handful of notable names have come off the board, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Hunter Renfroe and most recently Teoscar Hernandez. However, the Phils never seemed likely to play at the Gurriel/Hernandez level anyhow, given the presence of Marsh, Rojas, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber.

There’s no shortage of free agents who could fill a part-time corner role. Candidates for that type of job include Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and switch-hitters Aaron Hicks, and Robbie Grossman. If the Phils are content to push Marsh and Rojas into a platoon to open the season, they could look to Adam Duvall or versatile Whit Merrifield to hold down a more regular role in left.

The bench, in general

A more speculative need here, but the Philadelphia bench doesn’t look like that of a repeat NLCS club with World Series aspirations. Stubbs hit .204/.274/.283 in 125 plate appearances last year — the polar opposite of a .264/.350/.462 slash he posted in a near-identical sample the preceding season. Cave hit just .212/.272/.348. Both have already been signed to the cheap 2024 deals I referenced earlier, but Stubbs has an option remaining and Cave would surely clear waivers and could be stashed in Triple-A as depth, should the Phils make a more substantial addition.

Pache and Edmundo Sosa represent a pair of strong defensive options for the outfield and infield, respectively, but neither has much of a bat (Pache’s solid 2023 showing in a tiny sample of 95 plate appearances notwithstanding). There’s some versatility here, with Pache being a plus defender at any outfield slot and Sosa capable at any of shortstop, second base and third base. But this is a weak group in terms of offensive potential, and a long-term injury to a regular would further expose that reality.

One possible scenario that could alter this mix would be to sign a full-time third baseman and push Alec Bohm into a reserve role. While the 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick popped 20 home runs and finished third on the club with 97 runs plated, there’s some reason to be skeptical of his ability to continue that level of run production. Bohm has excellent bat-to-ball skills and roughly average power, but the overwhelming bulk of his damage was done against lefties. He torched southpaws at a .303/.335/.594 clip (142 wRC+) but was effectively a singles hitter against righties (.263/.324/.377, 92 wRC+). His career splits paint a similar picture: .314/.362/.530 against lefties but .262/.311/.358 against righties.

If Bohm were a plus or even average defender, that offensive profile would carry him just fine. However, Bohm has been dinged for -46 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average at third base in his career. He might be a better fit at first base, but that belongs to Bryce Harper now.

Bohm clearly has a big league-caliber bat, but it’s easy to argue that he’s best deployed in a more limited role, given the shaky glove and punchless output against right-handed opposition. He’s only in his first year of arbitration and projected to earn $4.4MM (hat tip to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), so he’s plenty affordable in that role. But as he inches through arbitration, the price could begin to outpace his value if he racks up counting stats in an everyday role and doesn’t make substantive gains against right-handed pitching.

The Bohm scenario, to reiterate, is speculative in nature and not something to which Dombrowski has publicly alluded. But the third base market has names like Justin Turner, Matt Chapman and Gio Urshela in free agency, while there are several teams (Reds, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles) who have some infield surpluses that could present trade possibilities. There’s no glaring hole in the lineup here — as one might expect from a back-to-back LCS participant — but a more specialized role for Bohm could improve the roster in multiple ways. Alternatively, the Phils could add a third baseman and see if Bohm could fill that right-handed-hitting void in left field. The defense might not be pretty, but that’s already true as it is at third base.

Rotation depth

One current hangup, at least as pertains to Dombrowski’s quest to add more rotation depth, is that free agents look at the Phillies’ roster and don’t see an opportunity for a guaranteed rotation spot with Nola, Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez all locked in. Dombrowski noted to Lauber that he’s hopeful of eventually adding some veteran arms who’ll be willing to start the year in Triple-A and serve as rotation depth, but most pitchers of that ilk are still hoping for concrete spots with other teams who have more acute rotation needs.

The Phillies could very arguably benefit from signing an established veteran to a short-term (possibly one-year) pact and plugging him into the fifth spot in the rotation. However, Sanchez is out of minor league options, so he can’t simply be sent down to the minors. And, after he impressed with a 3.44 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and pristine 4% walk rate in 99 1/3 innings last year, he’s certainly earned a look. Dombrowski said as much earlier in the winter, noting in an appearance on MLB Network that if the club succeeded in re-signing Nola, the rotation would be “set” — largely because of a desire to take a full-season look at Sanchez after that impressive 2023 showing. That didn’t stop the Phillies from making an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he was viewed as something of an exception, given his age and upside.

The free-agent market should feature several recognizable names who’ll end up signing non-guaranteed deals. Predicting exactly who’ll be squeezed out of a big league deal requires some degree of guesswork, but rebound candidates like Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Keller and Yonny Chirinos come to mind as plausible possibilities.

NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Sign Cody Thomas

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The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced the signing of outfielder Cody Thomas this week. The Octagon client became a minor league free agent at the end of the 2023 season.

An Oklahoma product, Thomas joined the professional ranks in 2016 as a Dodger draftee. Los Angeles traded him to the A’s shortly before Spring Training in 2021. Oakland added him to the 40-man roster after that season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Thomas reached the big leagues the following September.

The A’s gave Thomas brief MLB looks in each of the past two years. He made 10 appearances in 2022. Oakland designated the left-handed hitter for assignment but kept him in the organization after he cleared outright waivers. He made it back to the big leagues in July and got into 19 more games. Between the two seasons, he hit .250/.308/.333 with one homer over 78 plate appearances.

Oakland again waived Thomas in late August, sending him to the open market at year’s end. Rather than take a minor league contract, the 29-year-old heads to Japan. The Buffaloes are surely intrigued by the .292/.356/.585 batting line which Thomas has managed in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. Even in a very favorable Pacific Coast League hitting environment, that’s an impressive showing against minor league arms. He’ll look to carry that over against NPB pitching and could reemerge on the MLB radar a year or two from now.

MLBTR Podcast: Teoscar Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will anything stop this trend of deferred money in contracts? (23:40)
  • Will there ever be a salary floor and would that help baseball in any way? (32:20)

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Mets Sign Yacksel Ríos To Minor League Deal

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The Mets have signed right-hander Yacksel Ríos to a minor league deal, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. The righty also receives an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Ríos, 30, has 98 1/3 innings of major league experience, but scattered over six seasons. He’s pitched for the Phillies, Pirates, Mariners, Red Sox and Athletics, never topping 36 frames in any individual season. He has a combined 6.32 earned run average in his career, having struck out 20.8% of opponents while giving out walks at a 12.5% clip.

He started the year with the Braves on a minor league deal and looked in good form for a while. He tossed 25 1/3 innings for their Triple-A club with a 2.49 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He was traded to the A’s in June in a cash deal and was quickly added to the major league roster, but he landed on the injured list after just three appearances. In July, he required surgery to repair an axillary branch aneurysm in his right shoulder. He was outrighted off the roster in October and elected free agency.

The major league track record isn’t especially impressive, but he’s been better in the minors. That includes a 4.12 ERA at Triple-A in 168 1/3 innings over six separate seasons. He has struck out a quarter of batters faced at that level, though he’s also given out free passes at a 12% clip. For the Mets, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard via this minor league deal to provide some non-roster depth. If selected to the roster, he is out of options but has just over three years of service time.

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