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Cubs Acquire Michael Busch, Yency Almonte

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The Dodgers and Cubs announced a trade sending rookie infielder Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte from Los Angeles to Chicago for prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope. The deal clears a pair of 40-man roster spots for L.A. — one of which will go Teoscar Hernández once his free agent pact is finalized. The Cubs designated catcher Brian Serven for assignment in a corresponding move.

Busch has the more significant value of the players headed to Chicago. Los Angeles selected the UNC product with the 31st overall pick in the 2019 draft. Regarded as a bat-first prospect with questions about his defensive fit, Busch has mostly lived up to that billing during his time in the minors.

Over parts of four seasons, the left-handed hitter owns a .283/.390/.529 line. That includes a robust .293/.385/.544 showing in just under 1000 plate appearances at Triple-A. Busch has connected on 48 home runs and 58 doubles with an excellent 11.8% walk rate at the top minor league level. His 22.5% strikeout rate is closer to league average, but Busch has shown a strong combination of power and patience.

Despite his excellent Triple-A production, the 26-year-old hasn’t gotten much of an MLB opportunity. He didn’t reach the majors until last April. He appeared in 27 games scattered over the course of the season. Through his first 81 plate appearances, he hit only .167/.247/.292 with a pair of home runs. He struck out in a third of his trips.

There’s not much to be gleaned from such a small sample of MLB work. At the same time, that the Dodgers haven’t given Busch extended run is indicative of a few factors. The Dodgers have had strong position player groups in recent years. That’s an impediment to a young hitter, but L.A. had some questions at second base and left field last season. Were Busch regarded as a better defensive player, perhaps he’d have forced his way into the discussion at one or both of those spots.

L.A. has given Busch opportunities at a few positions in the minors. While he has played primarily second base, he’s also gotten work at both corner infield spots and in left field. Prospect evaluators have graded him as a below-average defender at every spot, raising questions about his athleticism and arm strength. Baseball America nevertheless ranked him as the top prospect in the Dodgers system this offseason on the strength of his offensive ceiling.

In some respects, the Cubs will face the same question on Busch as they do on Christopher Morel — where to find at-bats for a promising hitter who hasn’t defended well at any position. That’d most likely come at a corner infield spot or at DH. Morel projects for a starting role at either first base or DH. Some combination of Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal are the top options at the hot corner. The Cubs could still pursue a free agent target at either spot — they’ve been tied to Rhys Hoskins and Matt Chapman this winter — but Busch adds an affordable, high-upside lefty bat to the mix.

Busch still has a pair of minor league option years, so he’s not a lock to open the season on the MLB roster. He’s at least three years from arbitration and won’t be eligible for free agency for at least six seasons. Future minor league assignments could push that back even further.

A secondary part of the return, Almonte steps into the middle relief corps. The 29-year-old righty pitched in 49 games a year ago, working to a 5.06 ERA across 48 innings. He struck hitters out at a solid 23.6% clip but issued free passes to more than 11% of opponents. That continues an up-and-down career for Almonte, who has three seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA and a trio of campaigns allowing more than five earned runs per nine.

Almonte and the Dodgers already agreed to a $1.9MM arbitration salary back in November. The Cubs will take on that near-$2MM sum to add a pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and a low-80s sweeper that has generated a strong number of whiffs throughout his career. He’s out of options, so he’ll very likely have a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. The Cubs could control him via arbitration for the 2025 season as well.

To add immediate MLB help, Chicago parts with two promising lower-level players. Ferris, who turns 20 next week, was a second-round pick in the 2022 draft. A 6’4″ left-hander, he signed for a well overslot $3MM bonus as a high school prospect. Ferris made his professional debut last season, turning in a 3.38 ERA over 18 starts for Low-A Myrtle Beach. He punched out nearly a third of his opponents while walking almost 14% of batters faced.

As a young, lanky pitching prospect, it’s not particularly surprising that Ferris has yet to dial in his control. Baseball America praised a 93-95 MPH fastball and a pair of potential above-average or plus breaking balls this offseason, slotting him as the #10 prospect in the Chicago system. He’s a high-upside development play whose future will largely be determined by how well his command develops.

Hope was an overslot signee for $400K in the 11th round last summer. A left-handed hitting outfielder from a Virginia high school, he played in 11 rookie ball games after the draft. In a pre-draft report, BA wrote that Hope was among the fastest players in last year’s class. He’s regarded as a viable fit in center field with a line drive approach, although BA expressed trepidation about his aggressiveness at the dish.

Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported the Dodgers were discussing Almonte and Busch in trades with the Cubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed an Almonte deal was agreed upon. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Dodgers were receiving two players not on the 40-man roster, which Toribio specified included a highly-regarded pitching prospect. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 was first to report L.A. would receive Ferris and Hope.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Avoid Arbitration With Christian Walker, Paul Sewald

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The Diamondbacks and first baseman Christian Walker have agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA Sports client will make a salary of $10.9MM in 2024. Right-hander Paul Sewald, a client of ISE Baseball, has also settled and will make $7.35MM this year.

Walker, 33 in March, has settled in nicely as an above-average first baseman for the Snakes. He hit 33 home runs last year and had solid walk and strikeout rates of 9.4% and 19.2%, respectively. His .258/.333/.497  batting line translated to a wRC+ of 120, indicating he was 20% above league average. His defense was also highly regarded, leading to 12 Outs Above Average, nine Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 3.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

All of those numbers were quite close to his 2022 season, when he hit 36 homers, walked at a 10.3% clip and struck out in 19.6% of his plate appearances. He had a batting line of .242/.327/.477, 123 wRC+, 14 OAA, 17 DRS and 5.4 UZR.

This is his third trip through arbitration, as he made $2.6MM in 2022 and $6.5MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $12.7MM in 2024, but he’ll come in almost $2MM below that. It’s his final season of club control before he’s slated for free agency.

Sewald, 34 in May, is also in his final season before hitting the open market. A late bloomer, he established himself as an excellent reliever in a breakout season with the Mariners in 2021, posting a 3.06 earned run average. He carried that over into 2022 and lowered his ERA to 2.67, racking up 20 saves in the process.

He continued to serve as Seattle’s closer until a deadline trade that sent Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss to the Mariners. Sewald continued to pitch well and stabilized the bullpen in the desert, helping the club push all the way to the World Series. He finished the year with a 3.12 ERA and 34 saves, plus six more saves in the playoffs. He made $1.735MM in 2022, his first arbitration season, then $4.1MM last year. He was projected for a raise to $7.3MM this year but will barely edge past that.

Rays, Shane McClanahan Agree To Two-Year Deal

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The Rays have agreed to a two-year, $7.2MM contract with ace Shane McClanahan, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’ll buy out the left-hander’s first two seasons of arbitration. McClanahan, who underwent Tommy John surgery in August, will spend the bulk of the contract’s first year rehabbing. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.6MM this coming season, based on the strength of his pre-arbitration platform. Murray adds that McClanahan’s 2025 salary will be boosted by $120K for every start he makes in 2024. The Rays can control the southpaw through the 2027 season.

McClanahan, 26, was the No. 31 overall draft pick in 2018 and has arguably surpassed even those lofty draft standards with his performance to date. Since making his MLB debut in the 2020 postseason, the southpaw has emerged as Tampa Bay’s clear top starter. From 2021-23, he logged 404 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with a 28% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 46.8% ground-ball rate.

McClanahan has averaged 97 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons and was the sixth-place finisher in 2022 Cy Young voting in the American League. Were it not for a shoulder impingement that cost him three weeks late in the 2022 season, McClanahan might’ve had a legitimate chance at winning the award — or at least overtaking Dylan Cease as the runner-up. When he landed on the injured list, he’d pitched 147 1/3 innings with a dominant 2.20 earned run average, a massive 32.5% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate. Upon returning, he stumbled with a 5.21 ERA in his final four starts, dropping him down the ballot that eventually saw Justin Verlander win the award in unanimous fashion.

In all likelihood, last August’s Tommy John surgery will keep McClanahan shelved into the 2024 season’s final month or perhaps wipe out his ’24 season entirely. He’s one of three key starters who suffered a major injury for Tampa Bay last year, joining Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery). That trio of injuries has depleted the Rays’ once-enviable pitching depth. Their current quintet of Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell and young righties Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley has plenty of upside but lacks stability (particularly when considering the injury histories of veterans Eflin and Civale). Former top prospect Shane Baz will return from his own Tommy John surgery at some point, but the Rays still seem likely to add some rotation help this winter.

As for McClanahan, he figures to be back at full strength for Opening Day 2025. In an ideal world, both he and Baz will recapture the form that made them elite pitching prospects (and, in McClanahan’s case, a two-time All-Star) and lead the starting staff for several years. McClanahan finished the 2023 season with 2.158 years of MLB service, making him a slam-dunk Super Two player and setting the stage for him to be arb-eligible four times. This two-year deal takes care of the first two of those arb years, but he’ll be eligible again both in 2026 and 2027.

White Sox, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

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The White Sox avoided arbitration with righty Dylan Cease by agreeing to an $8MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided.

Cease, a client of the Boras Corporation, fell short of our projection in agreeing to a $2.3MM raise over last year’s salary.  As a player with four years of Major League service time, Cease will be eligible for arbitration once more for 2025 before reaching free agency.

Cease, who recently turned 28, had an off-year results-wise in 2023 with his ERA climbing to 4.58.  Still, his 97 starts over the last three seasons leads all of MLB, and he finished second in the 2022 AL Cy Young voting coming off a 2.20 ERA.  Cease averages about 96 miles per hour on his fastball and misses plenty of bats, though he also issues a lot of free passes.

Cease remains one of the top remaining trade candidates of the 2023-24 offseason.  New White Sox GM Chris Getz has been fielding inquiries, and there’s likely at least a half-dozen suitors.  You can read up on the latest Cease rumors here.

At present, though, Cease leads a projected White Sox rotation that also includes new additions Erick Fedde, Mike Soroka, and Chris Flexen, as well as holdover Michael Kopech.

Brewers, Willy Adames Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and shortstop Willy Adames have avoided arbitration, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA Sports client will make $12.25MM in 2024.

The 2023 season was a slight step back for Adames at the plate but he continued to excel on defense. He hit 24 home runs last year, a bit below the 25 he hit in 2021 and the 31 in 2022. His .217 batting average was also the lowest of his career. He made up for that somewhat by having a career-best walk rate of 11.1% but his overall offense was still below average, leading to a wRC+ of 94.

But on the other side of his game, Adames produced 16 Outs Above Average, second only to Dansby Swanson among all big league shortstops. His 5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating was also tied for second in the majors among shortstops, behind Francisco Lindor in this case, while his eight Defensive Runs Saved put him in the top 10. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.4 wins above replacement on the year even with that slightly disappointing offense.

This is the third arbitration season for Adames, who made $4.6MM in 2022 and then $8.7MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Adames for a raise to $12.4MM in 2024 and he will come in just a shade beneath that.

Adames has been a speculative trade candidate this winter, a reflection of his talent, his escalating salary and the fact that he is now one year removed from free agency. The Brewers have occasionally made trades of notable players before they reach the open market, with Josh Hader as the most famous example. As of a few months ago, the club was set to have Adames, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff all playing their final arbitration seasons on eight-figure deals in 2024. But Woodruff required shoulder surgery that is going to have him miss most or all of the upcoming season, which led to his non-tender.

There have still plenty of rumors this winter, moreso about Burnes than about Adames. If the club were to consider trading their shortstop, it would be a tricky balancing act with the weak crop of free agents for the position. On the one hand, they would surely get aggressive offers since he is far better than anyone on the open market. But on the other hand, they wouldn’t be able to easily replace him by signing a free agent.

At this point, given the lack of meaningful rumors, it seems as though Adames may stick with the club into the 2024 campaign. If they remain in contention as planned, he should be able to stick as their primary shortstop through the season, when he will be a qualifying offer candidate. Though if the club were to fall out of the playoff race, he should be one of the top trade candidates available at the July trade deadline.

Braves, Max Fried Avoid Arbitration

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The Braves and Max Fried agreed to a $15MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’ll avoid a hearing in his final year going through the process.  Fried is represented by CAA Sports.

Fried, who turns 30 next week, put up a 2.55 ERA in 2023.  He made 14 starts spanning 77 2/3 innings, enduring a three-month absence for a forearm strain.  The abbreviated season resulted in a $1.5MM raise for the lefty.

This represents Fried’s fourth and final time through arbitration, as he achieved Super Two status after the 2020 season.  He reached an agreement with the Braves for ’21, won a hearing against them for ’22, and lost a hearing against the club for ’23.  Fried had submitted a $15MM figure at his hearing nearly a year ago, but the arbitration panel instead chose the team’s $13.5MM figure.  So now in 2024, he will earn the amount he was hoping to earn in ’23.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in December that the Braves discussed an extension with Fried’s agency prior to the ’23 season.  Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos has given out 18 extensions since being hired in November 2017, according to our MLB Contract Tracker.  His longest deal for a pitcher was Spencer Strider’s six-year pact, though Strider had one year of MLB service at the time.  Otherwise he hasn’t given a multiyear deal to any starting pitcher, if you don’t count Reynaldo Lopez as one.  Though they’ve signed many players to extensions, the Braves did ultimately let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave as free agents, as noted by Toscano.

Fried is a special case, given a run of success for the Braves that has included Cy Young votes in the 2020 and ’22 seasons as well as the clinching win in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series.  Starting pitchers who signed deals worth $100MM+ with five years of service in the last decade include Clayton Kershaw, Homer Bailey, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Joe Musgrove, and Luis Castillo.  After back to back years of arbitration hearings, perhaps Fried reaching an agreement for ’24 can be viewed as a mild positive in his relationship with the team.

If he reaches the open market, Fried would be one of many interesting starting pitchers in the 2024-25 class.  You can check that out here.

Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a $13.125MM salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes additional incentives based on Cy Young voting, a potential All-Star appearance and postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2MM salary.

Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than six innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.

Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.

Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.

Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.

The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over. Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the future rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.

Astros Outright Joel Kuhnel

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Right-hander Joel Kuhnel has cleared outright waivers, the Astros informed reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Athletic). He has the right to elect free agency since this is his second career outright assignment; the team didn’t announce whether he’ll do so. Houston had designated him for assignment last week as the corresponding move for their waiver claim of Declan Cronin from the White Sox.

Houston acquired Kuhnel in a cash transaction with the Reds in June. He spent most of his tenure in Triple-A, appearing in 17 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Over 19 2/3 innings there, he posted a 5.03 ERA. Kuhnel pitched seven times with the Astros, allowing five runs with three strikeouts and walks apiece through 9 2/3 frames.

An 11th-round pick in 2016, Kuhnel has appeared at the MLB level in four of the past five years. His only extended work came in 2022. He soaked up 58 innings for Cincinnati that season, pitching to a 6.36 ERA in mostly low-leverage relief. For his career, he has allowed 6.02 earned runs per nine across 83 2/3 frames. Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is below average, but he has kept the ball on the ground on a lofty 52.5% of batted balls.

The grounder rate and a fastball that lands around 95 MPH on average should allow Kuhnel to find a minor league deal elsewhere if he chooses free agency. If he accepts the outright assignment, he’d likely receive an invite to Houston’s Spring Training camp as non-roster relief depth.

Bud Harrelson Passes Away

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The Mets announced the passing of longtime infielder Bud Harrelson last night at age 79. He had battled Alzheimer’s for an extended period, according to the team.

“We were saddened to learn of Mets Hall of Famer Buddy Harrelson’s passing. He was a skilled defender and spark plug on the 1969 Miracle Mets,” owners Steve and Alex Cohen said in a statement. “The Gold Glove shortstop played 13 years in Queens, appearing in more games at short than anyone else in team history. Buddy was the third base coach on the 1986 World Champs, becoming the only person to be in uniform on both World Series winning teams. We extend our deepest condolences to his entire family.”

Harrelson was a Bay Area native who played in college at San Francisco State. He signed with the Mets as a 19-year-old. The switch-hitting infielder got to the majors two years later, debuting with 19 games in 1965. Harrelson spent most of the 1966 campaign in Triple-A before emerging as a regular on the ’67 club.

He was an excellent defensive presence at shortstop for the next decade. Harrelson was the starter for the ’69 team that surprisingly secured the first World Series in franchise history. He made a pair of All-Star Games in 1970 and ’71, securing down-ballot MVP support in both years. Harrelson won the National League’s Gold Glove at shortstop in 1971. He finished among the top five NL shortstops in fielding percentage each year from 1969-72 and twice ranked among the top five at the position in assists.

Harrelson helped the Mets back to the Fall Classic in 1973, an eventual defeat at the hands of the A’s. While he had a solid showing in the World Series, he’s perhaps better known for his role in a bench-clearing brawl with the Reds in that’s year NLCS. After the Mets shut out Cincinnati in Game 2, Harrelson quipped that New York starter Jon Matlack had made Cincinnati’s vaunted offense “look like me hitting.” The following game, Harrelson took exception to a hard slide from Pete Rose on a double play turn, leading to the fracas.

As he self-deprecatingly noted, Harrelson wasn’t much of an offensive threat. He never hit more than one home run in a season — he had seven over his 16-year MLB career — and didn’t top a .659 OPS in any season in which he reached 250 plate appearances. That the Mets nevertheless stuck with him as their primary shortstop for over a decade speaks to how highly the team valued him as a defender. Harrelson remained in Queens through the 1977 campaign.

New York dealt him to the Phillies on the eve of the ’78 season. He played two years in Philadelphia and logged 87 contests with the 1980 Rangers to conclude his playing career. Harrelson appeared in more than 1500 games. He was a .236/.327/.288 hitter in over 5500 trips to the plate. He appeared on MVP ballots in three seasons and helped the Mets to two pennants.

He returned to the Mets in his post-playing days, managing in the farm system before taking on a role on the coaching staff. He was inducted into the team Hall of Fame in 1986 and, as the Cohens mentioned, was on staff for the franchise’s second championship. Harrelson got a brief look as manager, replacing Davey Johnson midseason in 1990. He led the team to a 70-49 record down the stretch but was fired the following season after a second half collapse put the club at 74-80.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Harrelson’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Pirates Sign Sergio Alcantara To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates announced Thursday that they’ve signed infielder Sergio Alcantara and righty Hunter Stratton to minor league deals and invited them to spring training. They’re two of a slate of eight NRIs announced by Pittsburgh today, although the other six — outfielders Gilberto Celestino and Billy McKinney, righties Ben Heller and Ryder Ryan, infielder Jake Lamb, lefty Michael Plassmeyer — have all been previously reported.

Alcantara, 27, has appeared in three big league seasons, spending time with the Tigers, Cubs, Padres and Diamondbacks. He’s a career .209/.281/.343 hitter in 502 MLB plate appearances and carries a .275/.389/.412 slash in a comparable amount of playing time at the Triple-A level. Alcantara is an above-average runner with a plus glove and arm at shortstop, but his sub-par track record at the plate leaves plenty to be desired. He’s played shortstop, third base and second base in his limited big league career to date and will give the Bucs some depth all around their infield.

Stratton, 27, was the Pirates’ 16th-round pick back in 2017. He made his MLB debut this past season and pitched well in a small sample, holding opponents to three runs on nine hits and three walks with 10 punchouts in a dozen innings of work. Pittsburgh non-tendered him earlier this winter.

Stratton has long demonstrated worrying command issues in the minor leagues, however, and those were on full display again in 2023. Stratton notched a solid 3.99 ERA with a hefty 30.6% strikeout rate in 56 1/3 Triple-A frames, but that was accompanied by a 12.8% walk rate. He’s never posted a single-season walk rate south of 11.8% and has issued a free pass to 13.1% of the opponents he’s faced as a professional. Add in 24 hit batters in his career, and nearly 16% of Stratton’s opponents have reached base without needing to put a ball in play. Stratton throws hard, sitting just shy of 96 mph with his heater, and can clearly miss bats in bunches, but he’ll likely need to improve his command to carve out a longer look at the MLB level.

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